GTO-5-01 - Repeated Games.srt

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hi folks so it's time to start into a
大家好，现在是时候开始

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new topic and a very interesting one at
新话题，一个非常有趣的话题

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that what we can talk about now is
我们现在可以谈论的是

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repeated games and so this will use some
重复的游戏，所以这将使用一些

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of the reasoning we've had in terms of
关于我们的推理

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sub game perfect and extensive forms but
子游戏完美且广泛的形式，但

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now think of situations where players
现在想到玩家

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are playing a game but they're playing
在玩游戏，但他们在玩

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it repeatedly over time so you know when
随着时间的推移反复出现，所以你知道什么时候

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we think of most interactions in the
我们想到了大多数互动

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world there's a lot of them which occur
世界上有很多发生

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more than once so you know when we think
不止一次，所以您知道我们何时思考

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about different kinds of things you know
关于你知道的各种事情

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firms in a market place they're
他们在市场中的公司

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interacting with their competitors
与竞争对手互动

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they're doing it day after day after day
他们日复一日地在做

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we think about political alliances
我们考虑政治联盟

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countries deciding how they should
决定如何做的国家

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negotiate with other ones whether they
与其他人协商是否

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should should have conflicts and so
应该有冲突等等

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forth those are things where you know
那些都是你所知道的

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this happens repeatedly over time so
随着时间的推移反复发生

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there's a long history and a long future
历史悠久，前途无限

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ahead of them
在他们前面

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friends you know do you exchange you
你认识的朋友你交换你

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help your friends out when they need
在需要时帮助您的朋友

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help do they help you back when you when
他们在你何时帮助你

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you need it so you know you're going
你需要它，所以你知道你要去

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through repeated interactions and how
通过反复的互动以及如何

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you've performed in the past of your
你过去的表现

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friends that have done very well for you
为您做得很好的朋友

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you're more likely to reciprocate some
你更有可能回报一些

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of these kinds of things can involve
这些事情可能涉及

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repeated interactions workers team
反复互动的工人团队

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production you've got a you know day
生产，你有一个你知道的一天

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after day you need to help some of your
一天之后，您需要帮助一些

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co-workers sometimes you have to do
同事有时您必须做

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tasks that don't go noticed and
不会被注意到的任务

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sometimes they do help you out and so
有时他们确实可以帮助您，所以

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forth so these are situations where
第四，这些情况是

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repetition can make a difference and
重复可以有所作为， 

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understanding it will be an important
了解这将是重要的

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aspect of understanding how the
理解方面

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repetition affects the play involves a
重复影响戏剧涉及

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whole series of different kinds of
全系列的不同种类的

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things I'm just to fix ideas let's talk
我只是为了解决问题而已

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a little bit about OPEC which was a
关于欧佩克的一点点

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cartel which was formed in the early
卡特尔成立于早期

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1970s and and just in terms of
 1970年代

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background if you go back to you know
回到你知道的背景

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the period between 1930 and up to 1973
从1930年到1973年

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when OPEC started being put together the
当欧佩克开始放在一起时， 

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price of oil so these are all adjusted
石油价格，因此都进行了调整

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numbers to reflect say two thousand and
要反映的数字说2000 

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eight dollars so we adjust for inflation
八美元，所以我们根据通货膨胀进行调整

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and other kinds of things but if you
和其他种类的东西，但是如果你

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just everything to the to the same
一切都一样

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to adjust for inflation you get a price
调整通货膨胀，你会得到一个价格

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of roughly $20 per barrel or less from
大约每桶20美元或更少

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the period of 1930 through about 1973
从1930年到大约1973年

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OPEC starts to form what happens they
欧佩克开始形成他们所发生的事情

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decide that you know they've just been
决定你知道他们刚刚去过

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acting it's a bunch of players a bunch
表演是一群玩家

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of different producers they've been
他们曾经去过的不同制片人

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acting on their own for many years and
独自行动多年

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just pumping lots of oil and they pump
只是抽很多油，他们抽

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so much oil that the prices is fairly
这么多的石油，价格合理

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low it's very easy to buy oil so they're
低，买油很容易，所以他们

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going to start by restricting production
首先要限制生产

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cut production back down and that'll
减少生产，这将

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drive the price up ok what's the
推动价格上涨，这是什么

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difficulty is if all the other ones are
困难是所有其他的

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producing very little and driving the
产生很少并驱动

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price up
价格上涨

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I'd like to cheat on the agreement and
我想在协议上作弊， 

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pump more oil so you can think of this
泵更多的油，所以你可以想到这个

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as looking somewhat like a giant
看起来有点像巨人

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prisoner's dilemma game where we'd all
我们都将在囚徒困境游戏中

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like to pump less oil if we're OPEC or
如果我们是石油输出国组织（OPEC），则希望少抽油

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oil producing countries drive the price
产油国拉动价格

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up but we all have an incentive to cheat
起来，但我们都有诱骗的动机

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a little bit and pump more oil and the
并抽更多的油

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repetition can help us police that if
重复可以帮助我们报警，如果

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for OPEC so what happens by 1976 the
对欧佩克而言，1976年发生了什么

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price goes up to about $50 a barrel by
油价到了每桶约50美元

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the time you get to 1982 these are also
你到1982年的时候

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in real terms so that these are adjusted
实质性地调整这些

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for inflation they've pumped up the
为了通货膨胀，他们加大了

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price up to $90 a barrel and you know so
价格高达每桶90美元，你知道吗

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it's in the early 1980s it does quite
在1980年代初期

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well in terms of Oh packin lots of money
哦，哦，包装很多钱

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coming in and then it collapses for a
进来然后崩溃了一个

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while so when you look but the period
虽然如此，当你看，但时期

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say between about 1986 to 2002 so 19
比如说在1986年到2002年之间，所以19 

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between 82 and 86 it starts to a road it
在82到86之间开始

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kind of falls apart between 86 and 2002
在86和2002之间分崩离析

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the price is basically $40 a barrel or
价格基本上是每桶40美元或

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less and then they get back together
少然后他们重新聚在一起

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again so actually during this period
再次如此实际上在此期间

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there is a Iran Iraq war a whole series
有一场伊战全系列

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of things go on in the Middle East that
在中东发生的事情

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make it much more difficult to sustain
使维持变得更加困难

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cooperation things deteriorate and then
合作的事情恶化然后

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after a while you know things are
过了一会儿，你知道事情是

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getting back in terms of higher prices
重新获得更高的价格

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by late 2008 the price is pushed back up
到2008年底价格回升

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to over $100 a barrel okay so what we
超过每桶100美元，那么我们

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need to begin to understand this
需要开始了解这一点

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understanding the repeated interaction
了解重复的互动

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and understanding the motivations of the
并了解

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players and so forth can help us quite
玩家等可以帮助我们

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but so when we think about this a cartel
但是当我们考虑这个卡特尔时

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is much like a repeated prisoner's
就像是一个反复犯人的

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dilemma and in order to make sure that
困境，并确保

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other people behave if you want to get
如果你想得到别人的行为

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people abiding by this you need to be
遵守这一点的人，你需要

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able to observe other people's play and
能够观察其他人的游戏

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react quickly to that and punish them
对此迅速做出反应并惩罚他们

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desired behavior so if you form a cartel
期望的行为，所以如果您形成卡特尔

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and so everybody here's our quotas don't
所以每个人都是我们的配额

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pump more than this you be able to need
泵出更多您需要的

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to be able to respond to somebody who
能够回应某人

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ends up breaking their agreement and
最终违反了他们的协议， 

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pumping too much so you need to be able
抽太多，所以你需要能够

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to observe what's going on you also need
观察正在发生的事情，您还需要

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to care about the future right so if you
关心未来的权利，如果你

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stop caring about the future and only
不要只关心未来

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care about today then it's very tempting
在乎今天，这很诱人

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from one of these countries just to say
来自这些国家之一

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okay forget the agreement I'm just
好吧，忘了我只是达成的协议

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pumping as much as I can today the price
我今天能抽得最多

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is very high I'm going to grab what I
很高我要抓住我的东西

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can and war certainly didn't help this
可以，战争当然没有帮助

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right so if you have a war you need cash
对，所以如果你有战争需要现金

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upfront you're going to want to pump
前期，你要抽水

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much more oil and that makes it much
更多的石油，这使它变得更多

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more difficult to abide by the cartel
更难以遵守卡特尔

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agreement you also need a stable set of
同意你还需要一套稳定的

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players and and stationarity so the more
玩家和平稳性

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complicated the setting becomes and the
设置变得复杂，并且

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more sources of oil there are in the
有更多的石油来源

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world and so forth so constantly
世界等等不断

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changing sources of production can hurt
改变生产来源可能会伤害

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growing demand can help actually right
需求的增长可以帮助实际上正确

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so if the world is getting more and more
所以如果世界越来越多

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oil dependent and countries come online
石油依赖国家上线

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that have more and more demand for oil
对石油的需求越来越大

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that can help drive the price up so in
可以帮助推动价格上涨

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understanding repeated games we'll have
了解我们将要玩的重复游戏

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to account for a lot of things over time
随着时间的流逝要占很多东西

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00:05:54,519 --> 00:05:56,939
but we can begin to analyze this using
但是我们可以开始使用

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the tools of game theory and looking at
博弈论和观察工具

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situations where people are playing
人们在玩的情况

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games but they're playing them over and
游戏，但他们正在玩这些游戏， 

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over and over again and trying to
一遍又一遍，试图

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understand the consequences of that
了解其后果

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how does threats of future play impact
未来的威胁如何产生影响

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play today so that's the basic idea and
今天玩，这是基本思路， 

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let's get into that in a little bit more
让我们多谈一点

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detail
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