1
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hi folks so it's time to start into a
大家好，现在是时候开始

2
00:00:03,089 --> 00:00:06,129
new topic and a very interesting one at
新话题，一个非常有趣的话题

3
00:00:06,330 --> 00:00:07,750
that what we can talk about now is
我们现在可以谈论的是

4
00:00:07,950 --> 00:00:11,470
repeated games and so this will use some
重复的游戏，所以这将使用一些

5
00:00:11,669 --> 00:00:12,910
of the reasoning we've had in terms of
关于我们的推理

6
00:00:13,109 --> 00:00:15,550
sub game perfect and extensive forms but
子游戏完美且广泛的形式，但

7
00:00:15,750 --> 00:00:17,530
now think of situations where players
现在想到玩家

8
00:00:17,730 --> 00:00:19,329
are playing a game but they're playing
在玩游戏，但他们在玩

9
00:00:19,528 --> 00:00:22,179
it repeatedly over time so you know when
随着时间的推移反复出现，所以你知道什么时候

10
00:00:22,379 --> 00:00:24,519
we think of most interactions in the
我们想到了大多数互动

11
00:00:24,719 --> 00:00:27,068
world there's a lot of them which occur
世界上有很多发生

12
00:00:27,268 --> 00:00:29,560
more than once so you know when we think
不止一次，所以您知道我们何时思考

13
00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:31,239
about different kinds of things you know
关于你知道的各种事情

14
00:00:31,439 --> 00:00:34,089
firms in a market place they're
他们在市场中的公司

15
00:00:34,289 --> 00:00:35,169
interacting with their competitors
与竞争对手互动

16
00:00:35,369 --> 00:00:37,409
they're doing it day after day after day
他们日复一日地在做

17
00:00:37,609 --> 00:00:39,869
we think about political alliances
我们考虑政治联盟

18
00:00:40,070 --> 00:00:43,000
countries deciding how they should
决定如何做的国家

19
00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:44,619
negotiate with other ones whether they
与其他人协商是否

20
00:00:44,820 --> 00:00:47,439
should should have conflicts and so
应该有冲突等等

21
00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,659
forth those are things where you know
那些都是你所知道的

22
00:00:49,859 --> 00:00:51,549
this happens repeatedly over time so
随着时间的推移反复发生

23
00:00:51,750 --> 00:00:53,858
there's a long history and a long future
历史悠久，前途无限

24
00:00:54,058 --> 00:00:54,659
ahead of them
在他们前面

25
00:00:54,859 --> 00:00:56,799
friends you know do you exchange you
你认识的朋友你交换你

26
00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:58,059
help your friends out when they need
在需要时帮助您的朋友

27
00:00:58,259 --> 00:01:00,428
help do they help you back when you when
他们在你何时帮助你

28
00:01:00,628 --> 00:01:03,698
you need it so you know you're going
你需要它，所以你知道你要去

29
00:01:03,899 --> 00:01:06,039
through repeated interactions and how
通过反复的互动以及如何

30
00:01:06,239 --> 00:01:07,509
you've performed in the past of your
你过去的表现

31
00:01:07,709 --> 00:01:09,009
friends that have done very well for you
为您做得很好的朋友

32
00:01:09,209 --> 00:01:11,709
you're more likely to reciprocate some
你更有可能回报一些

33
00:01:11,909 --> 00:01:13,060
of these kinds of things can involve
这些事情可能涉及

34
00:01:13,260 --> 00:01:16,058
repeated interactions workers team
反复互动的工人团队

35
00:01:16,259 --> 00:01:18,609
production you've got a you know day
生产，你有一个你知道的一天

36
00:01:18,810 --> 00:01:20,109
after day you need to help some of your
一天之后，您需要帮助一些

37
00:01:20,310 --> 00:01:21,969
co-workers sometimes you have to do
同事有时您必须做

38
00:01:22,170 --> 00:01:24,159
tasks that don't go noticed and
不会被注意到的任务

39
00:01:24,359 --> 00:01:25,988
sometimes they do help you out and so
有时他们确实可以帮助您，所以

40
00:01:26,188 --> 00:01:27,759
forth so these are situations where
第四，这些情况是

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00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,179
repetition can make a difference and
重复可以有所作为， 

42
00:01:30,379 --> 00:01:32,289
understanding it will be an important
了解这将是重要的

43
00:01:32,489 --> 00:01:34,689
aspect of understanding how the
理解方面

44
00:01:34,890 --> 00:01:38,738
repetition affects the play involves a
重复影响戏剧涉及

45
00:01:38,938 --> 00:01:40,119
whole series of different kinds of
全系列的不同种类的

46
00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,668
things I'm just to fix ideas let's talk
我只是为了解决问题而已

47
00:01:42,868 --> 00:01:45,579
a little bit about OPEC which was a
关于欧佩克的一点点

48
00:01:45,780 --> 00:01:48,278
cartel which was formed in the early
卡特尔成立于早期

49
00:01:48,478 --> 00:01:50,619
1970s and and just in terms of
 1970年代

50
00:01:50,819 --> 00:01:54,340
background if you go back to you know
回到你知道的背景

51
00:01:54,540 --> 00:01:58,509
the period between 1930 and up to 1973
从1930年到1973年

52
00:01:58,709 --> 00:02:02,140
when OPEC started being put together the
当欧佩克开始放在一起时， 

53
00:02:02,340 --> 00:02:04,090
price of oil so these are all adjusted
石油价格，因此都进行了调整

54
00:02:04,290 --> 00:02:06,369
numbers to reflect say two thousand and
要反映的数字说2000 

55
00:02:06,569 --> 00:02:08,140
eight dollars so we adjust for inflation
八美元，所以我们根据通货膨胀进行调整

56
00:02:08,340 --> 00:02:10,118
and other kinds of things but if you
和其他种类的东西，但是如果你

57
00:02:10,318 --> 00:02:13,260
just everything to the to the same
一切都一样

58
00:02:13,460 --> 00:02:16,320
to adjust for inflation you get a price
调整通货膨胀，你会得到一个价格

59
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,050
of roughly $20 per barrel or less from
大约每桶20美元或更少

60
00:02:19,250 --> 00:02:21,780
the period of 1930 through about 1973
从1930年到大约1973年

61
00:02:21,979 --> 00:02:25,110
OPEC starts to form what happens they
欧佩克开始形成他们所发生的事情

62
00:02:25,310 --> 00:02:27,060
decide that you know they've just been
决定你知道他们刚刚去过

63
00:02:27,259 --> 00:02:29,280
acting it's a bunch of players a bunch
表演是一群玩家

64
00:02:29,479 --> 00:02:30,390
of different producers they've been
他们曾经去过的不同制片人

65
00:02:30,590 --> 00:02:32,870
acting on their own for many years and
独自行动多年

66
00:02:33,069 --> 00:02:36,240
just pumping lots of oil and they pump
只是抽很多油，他们抽

67
00:02:36,439 --> 00:02:38,760
so much oil that the prices is fairly
这么多的石油，价格合理

68
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,160
low it's very easy to buy oil so they're
低，买油很容易，所以他们

69
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,110
going to start by restricting production
首先要限制生产

70
00:02:43,310 --> 00:02:45,570
cut production back down and that'll
减少生产，这将

71
00:02:45,770 --> 00:02:47,760
drive the price up ok what's the
推动价格上涨，这是什么

72
00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:49,260
difficulty is if all the other ones are
困难是所有其他的

73
00:02:49,460 --> 00:02:52,020
producing very little and driving the
产生很少并驱动

74
00:02:52,219 --> 00:02:52,620
price up
价格上涨

75
00:02:52,819 --> 00:02:54,689
I'd like to cheat on the agreement and
我想在协议上作弊， 

76
00:02:54,889 --> 00:02:56,939
pump more oil so you can think of this
泵更多的油，所以你可以想到这个

77
00:02:57,139 --> 00:02:58,710
as looking somewhat like a giant
看起来有点像巨人

78
00:02:58,909 --> 00:03:00,719
prisoner's dilemma game where we'd all
我们都将在囚徒困境游戏中

79
00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,480
like to pump less oil if we're OPEC or
如果我们是石油输出国组织（OPEC），则希望少抽油

80
00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:05,310
oil producing countries drive the price
产油国拉动价格

81
00:03:05,509 --> 00:03:07,590
up but we all have an incentive to cheat
起来，但我们都有诱骗的动机

82
00:03:07,789 --> 00:03:11,640
a little bit and pump more oil and the
并抽更多的油

83
00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,280
repetition can help us police that if
重复可以帮助我们报警，如果

84
00:03:14,479 --> 00:03:17,730
for OPEC so what happens by 1976 the
对欧佩克而言，1976年发生了什么

85
00:03:17,930 --> 00:03:20,250
price goes up to about $50 a barrel by
油价到了每桶约50美元

86
00:03:20,449 --> 00:03:23,160
the time you get to 1982 these are also
你到1982年的时候

87
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,680
in real terms so that these are adjusted
实质性地调整这些

88
00:03:25,879 --> 00:03:27,390
for inflation they've pumped up the
为了通货膨胀，他们加大了

89
00:03:27,590 --> 00:03:31,590
price up to $90 a barrel and you know so
价格高达每桶90美元，你知道吗

90
00:03:31,789 --> 00:03:33,660
it's in the early 1980s it does quite
在1980年代初期

91
00:03:33,860 --> 00:03:35,939
well in terms of Oh packin lots of money
哦，哦，包装很多钱

92
00:03:36,139 --> 00:03:39,450
coming in and then it collapses for a
进来然后崩溃了一个

93
00:03:39,650 --> 00:03:41,280
while so when you look but the period
虽然如此，当你看，但时期

94
00:03:41,479 --> 00:03:44,490
say between about 1986 to 2002 so 19
比如说在1986年到2002年之间，所以19 

95
00:03:44,689 --> 00:03:47,219
between 82 and 86 it starts to a road it
在82到86之间开始

96
00:03:47,419 --> 00:03:51,300
kind of falls apart between 86 and 2002
在86和2002之间分崩离析

97
00:03:51,500 --> 00:03:53,520
the price is basically $40 a barrel or
价格基本上是每桶40美元或

98
00:03:53,719 --> 00:03:55,620
less and then they get back together
少然后他们重新聚在一起

99
00:03:55,819 --> 00:03:58,020
again so actually during this period
再次如此实际上在此期间

100
00:03:58,219 --> 00:04:01,680
there is a Iran Iraq war a whole series
有一场伊战全系列

101
00:04:01,879 --> 00:04:03,330
of things go on in the Middle East that
在中东发生的事情

102
00:04:03,530 --> 00:04:05,370
make it much more difficult to sustain
使维持变得更加困难

103
00:04:05,569 --> 00:04:08,670
cooperation things deteriorate and then
合作的事情恶化然后

104
00:04:08,870 --> 00:04:10,710
after a while you know things are
过了一会儿，你知道事情是

105
00:04:10,909 --> 00:04:13,350
getting back in terms of higher prices
重新获得更高的价格

106
00:04:13,550 --> 00:04:15,660
by late 2008 the price is pushed back up
到2008年底价格回升

107
00:04:15,860 --> 00:04:18,629
to over $100 a barrel okay so what we
超过每桶100美元，那么我们

108
00:04:18,829 --> 00:04:20,180
need to begin to understand this
需要开始了解这一点

109
00:04:20,379 --> 00:04:22,199
understanding the repeated interaction
了解重复的互动

110
00:04:22,399 --> 00:04:23,699
and understanding the motivations of the
并了解

111
00:04:23,899 --> 00:04:25,379
players and so forth can help us quite
玩家等可以帮助我们

112
00:04:25,579 --> 00:04:27,718
but so when we think about this a cartel
但是当我们考虑这个卡特尔时

113
00:04:27,918 --> 00:04:28,800
is much like a repeated prisoner's
就像是一个反复犯人的

114
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,429
dilemma and in order to make sure that
困境，并确保

115
00:04:32,629 --> 00:04:34,079
other people behave if you want to get
如果你想得到别人的行为

116
00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,179
people abiding by this you need to be
遵守这一点的人，你需要

117
00:04:36,379 --> 00:04:38,069
able to observe other people's play and
能够观察其他人的游戏

118
00:04:38,269 --> 00:04:39,660
react quickly to that and punish them
对此迅速做出反应并惩罚他们

119
00:04:39,860 --> 00:04:41,879
desired behavior so if you form a cartel
期望的行为，所以如果您形成卡特尔

120
00:04:42,079 --> 00:04:43,649
and so everybody here's our quotas don't
所以每个人都是我们的配额

121
00:04:43,848 --> 00:04:45,718
pump more than this you be able to need
泵出更多您需要的

122
00:04:45,918 --> 00:04:47,730
to be able to respond to somebody who
能够回应某人

123
00:04:47,930 --> 00:04:49,559
ends up breaking their agreement and
最终违反了他们的协议， 

124
00:04:49,759 --> 00:04:51,809
pumping too much so you need to be able
抽太多，所以你需要能够

125
00:04:52,009 --> 00:04:54,749
to observe what's going on you also need
观察正在发生的事情，您还需要

126
00:04:54,949 --> 00:04:58,829
to care about the future right so if you
关心未来的权利，如果你

127
00:04:59,029 --> 00:05:00,300
stop caring about the future and only
不要只关心未来

128
00:05:00,500 --> 00:05:02,550
care about today then it's very tempting
在乎今天，这很诱人

129
00:05:02,750 --> 00:05:03,929
from one of these countries just to say
来自这些国家之一

130
00:05:04,129 --> 00:05:05,218
okay forget the agreement I'm just
好吧，忘了我只是达成的协议

131
00:05:05,418 --> 00:05:06,778
pumping as much as I can today the price
我今天能抽得最多

132
00:05:06,978 --> 00:05:08,550
is very high I'm going to grab what I
很高我要抓住我的东西

133
00:05:08,750 --> 00:05:11,490
can and war certainly didn't help this
可以，战争当然没有帮助

134
00:05:11,689 --> 00:05:13,259
right so if you have a war you need cash
对，所以如果你有战争需要现金

135
00:05:13,459 --> 00:05:15,929
upfront you're going to want to pump
前期，你要抽水

136
00:05:16,129 --> 00:05:17,968
much more oil and that makes it much
更多的石油，这使它变得更多

137
00:05:18,168 --> 00:05:20,670
more difficult to abide by the cartel
更难以遵守卡特尔

138
00:05:20,870 --> 00:05:23,819
agreement you also need a stable set of
同意你还需要一套稳定的

139
00:05:24,019 --> 00:05:27,420
players and and stationarity so the more
玩家和平稳性

140
00:05:27,620 --> 00:05:29,189
complicated the setting becomes and the
设置变得复杂，并且

141
00:05:29,389 --> 00:05:30,718
more sources of oil there are in the
有更多的石油来源

142
00:05:30,918 --> 00:05:32,999
world and so forth so constantly
世界等等不断

143
00:05:33,199 --> 00:05:35,639
changing sources of production can hurt
改变生产来源可能会伤害

144
00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,040
growing demand can help actually right
需求的增长可以帮助实际上正确

145
00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,649
so if the world is getting more and more
所以如果世界越来越多

146
00:05:40,848 --> 00:05:44,129
oil dependent and countries come online
石油依赖国家上线

147
00:05:44,329 --> 00:05:46,139
that have more and more demand for oil
对石油的需求越来越大

148
00:05:46,338 --> 00:05:49,079
that can help drive the price up so in
可以帮助推动价格上涨

149
00:05:49,278 --> 00:05:50,610
understanding repeated games we'll have
了解我们将要玩的重复游戏

150
00:05:50,810 --> 00:05:54,319
to account for a lot of things over time
随着时间的流逝要占很多东西

151
00:05:54,519 --> 00:05:56,939
but we can begin to analyze this using
但是我们可以开始使用

152
00:05:57,139 --> 00:05:59,759
the tools of game theory and looking at
博弈论和观察工具

153
00:05:59,959 --> 00:06:01,559
situations where people are playing
人们在玩的情况

154
00:06:01,759 --> 00:06:03,269
games but they're playing them over and
游戏，但他们正在玩这些游戏， 

155
00:06:03,468 --> 00:06:04,860
over and over again and trying to
一遍又一遍，试图

156
00:06:05,060 --> 00:06:06,389
understand the consequences of that
了解其后果

157
00:06:06,588 --> 00:06:10,160
how does threats of future play impact
未来的威胁如何产生影响

158
00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,588
play today so that's the basic idea and
今天玩，这是基本思路， 

159
00:06:13,788 --> 00:06:15,389
let's get into that in a little bit more
让我们多谈一点

160
00:06:15,588 --> 00:06:20,588
detail
详情