diff --git a/net/ipv4/tcp_bbr.c b/net/ipv4/tcp_bbr.c
index b88081285fd172444a844b6aec5d038c0f882594..4cc2223d2cd54b1f7964056758acfb6f45e75b7e 100644
--- a/net/ipv4/tcp_bbr.c
+++ b/net/ipv4/tcp_bbr.c
@@ -369,6 +369,39 @@ static u32 bbr_target_cwnd(struct sock *sk, u32 bw, int gain)
 	return cwnd;
 }
 
+/* With pacing at lower layers, there's often less data "in the network" than
+ * "in flight". With TSQ and departure time pacing at lower layers (e.g. fq),
+ * we often have several skbs queued in the pacing layer with a pre-scheduled
+ * earliest departure time (EDT). BBR adapts its pacing rate based on the
+ * inflight level that it estimates has already been "baked in" by previous
+ * departure time decisions. We calculate a rough estimate of the number of our
+ * packets that might be in the network at the earliest departure time for the
+ * next skb scheduled:
+ *   in_network_at_edt = inflight_at_edt - (EDT - now) * bw
+ * If we're increasing inflight, then we want to know if the transmit of the
+ * EDT skb will push inflight above the target, so inflight_at_edt includes
+ * bbr_tso_segs_goal() from the skb departing at EDT. If decreasing inflight,
+ * then estimate if inflight will sink too low just before the EDT transmit.
+ */
+static u32 bbr_packets_in_net_at_edt(struct sock *sk, u32 inflight_now)
+{
+	struct tcp_sock *tp = tcp_sk(sk);
+	struct bbr *bbr = inet_csk_ca(sk);
+	u64 now_ns, edt_ns, interval_us;
+	u32 interval_delivered, inflight_at_edt;
+
+	now_ns = tp->tcp_clock_cache;
+	edt_ns = max(tp->tcp_wstamp_ns, now_ns);
+	interval_us = div_u64(edt_ns - now_ns, NSEC_PER_USEC);
+	interval_delivered = (u64)bbr_bw(sk) * interval_us >> BW_SCALE;
+	inflight_at_edt = inflight_now;
+	if (bbr->pacing_gain > BBR_UNIT)              /* increasing inflight */
+		inflight_at_edt += bbr_tso_segs_goal(sk);  /* include EDT skb */
+	if (interval_delivered >= inflight_at_edt)
+		return 0;
+	return inflight_at_edt - interval_delivered;
+}
+
 /* An optimization in BBR to reduce losses: On the first round of recovery, we
  * follow the packet conservation principle: send P packets per P packets acked.
  * After that, we slow-start and send at most 2*P packets per P packets acked.
@@ -460,7 +493,7 @@ static bool bbr_is_next_cycle_phase(struct sock *sk,
 	if (bbr->pacing_gain == BBR_UNIT)
 		return is_full_length;		/* just use wall clock time */
 
-	inflight = rs->prior_in_flight;  /* what was in-flight before ACK? */
+	inflight = bbr_packets_in_net_at_edt(sk, rs->prior_in_flight);
 	bw = bbr_max_bw(sk);
 
 	/* A pacing_gain > 1.0 probes for bw by trying to raise inflight to at
@@ -741,7 +774,7 @@ static void bbr_check_drain(struct sock *sk, const struct rate_sample *rs)
 				bbr_target_cwnd(sk, bbr_max_bw(sk), BBR_UNIT);
 	}	/* fall through to check if in-flight is already small: */
 	if (bbr->mode == BBR_DRAIN &&
-	    tcp_packets_in_flight(tcp_sk(sk)) <=
+	    bbr_packets_in_net_at_edt(sk, tcp_packets_in_flight(tcp_sk(sk))) <=
 	    bbr_target_cwnd(sk, bbr_max_bw(sk), BBR_UNIT))
 		bbr_reset_probe_bw_mode(sk);  /* we estimate queue is drained */
 }