1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,129 this lecture was look at voting schemed 这堂课是看投票计划的 2 00:00:03,330 --> 00:00:06,189 a little more closely and the main 更紧密和主要 3 00:00:06,389 --> 00:00:09,250 message of this segment will be that 该段的消息是 4 00:00:09,449 --> 00:00:12,399 even very reasonable sounding voting 甚至听起来很合理的投票 5 00:00:12,599 --> 00:00:15,040 schemes can run into problems and we'll 方案可能会遇到问题,我们将 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,829 do it by a series of examples we'll look 我们将通过一系列示例来做到这一点 7 00:00:18,028 --> 00:00:19,960 at situation I'll ask you to pause the 在这种情况下,我会请您暂停 8 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,179 video and think about the situation and 视频并考虑情况 9 00:00:22,379 --> 00:00:24,039 then we'll and to continue when you're 然后我们会继续,当您 10 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,919 ready so let's get let's get started 准备好了,让我们开始吧 11 00:00:27,118 --> 00:00:29,710 let's start with the condos sake endorse 让我们从公寓的缘故开始 12 00:00:29,910 --> 00:00:36,350 a condition which on the face of it is 从表面上看是 13 00:00:37,100 --> 00:00:40,839 incontrovertible and consider the 坚不可摧,并考虑 14 00:00:41,039 --> 00:00:42,669 following examples so here we are we 下面的例子,所以我们在这里 15 00:00:42,869 --> 00:00:46,628 have a thousand agents and and here are 有一千个代理商,这是 16 00:00:46,829 --> 00:00:50,229 their preferences so for example four 他们的偏好,例如四个 17 00:00:50,429 --> 00:00:53,108 hundred and ninety nine of them prefer A 其中109个喜欢A 18 00:00:53,308 --> 00:00:57,669 to B to C and so on for the others first 从B到C,以此类推。 19 00:00:57,869 --> 00:01:00,549 question is not every voting situation 问题不是每个投票情况 20 00:01:00,750 --> 00:01:03,428 has a converse a winner does this one 有一个交谈者获胜者做到这一点 21 00:01:03,628 --> 00:01:06,009 have says good time for you to pause the 说了好时间让您暂停 22 00:01:06,209 --> 00:01:10,810 video and think about it well the answer 视频并仔细考虑答案 23 00:01:11,010 --> 00:01:13,869 is yes there is a conversation winner 是的,有一个对话的赢家 24 00:01:14,069 --> 00:01:15,909 and it's B and why is that 是B,那是为什么 25 00:01:16,109 --> 00:01:18,700 well let's look at their relative 好,让我们看看他们的亲戚 26 00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:20,859 preference of B to a and the relevant B对a的偏爱及相关 27 00:01:21,060 --> 00:01:24,308 preference of B to C well we have here B对C的偏爱我们在这里 28 00:01:24,509 --> 00:01:30,039 that 500 and one of the agents prefer B 500和其中一位特工更喜欢B 29 00:01:30,239 --> 00:01:38,200 to a and 502 of the agents prefer B to C 到a和502的代理商更喜欢B到C 30 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,390 so clearly B is a conversate winner 所以很明显B是一个对话的赢家 31 00:01:42,590 --> 00:01:46,198 well that so where's the problem well 好,那么问题出在哪里 32 00:01:46,399 --> 00:01:50,230 now think about the simplest sort of 现在考虑最简单的一种 33 00:01:50,430 --> 00:01:52,209 voting we're familiar with plurality 投票,我们熟悉复数 34 00:01:52,409 --> 00:01:54,849 voting everybody votes for their top 投票给所有人投票 35 00:01:55,049 --> 00:01:58,000 candidate who would win the plurality 赢得多元化的候选人 36 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:03,159 voting here well again you could pause 再次在这里投票可以暂停 37 00:02:03,359 --> 00:02:05,709 the video or in this case it's fairly 视频,或者在这种情况下, 38 00:02:05,909 --> 00:02:07,000 straightforward right 直截了当的权利 39 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:11,880 clearly a would win it because 490 显然一个会赢,因为490 40 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,630 agents would vote for a and the next 代理商会投票给A和下一个 41 00:02:15,830 --> 00:02:21,290 highest number would be C with 498 so 最高的数字将是C与498,所以 42 00:02:21,490 --> 00:02:23,760 morality boating doesn't give you the 道德划船不会给你 43 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:25,710 candidate that on the face of it 表面上的候选人 44 00:02:25,909 --> 00:02:30,990 is the clear should be the clear winner 是明确的应该是明确的赢家 45 00:02:31,189 --> 00:02:35,120 what about voting plurality with 用...投票复数怎么办 46 00:02:35,319 --> 00:02:38,460 elimination so this might take a little 消除,所以这可能需要一点时间 47 00:02:38,659 --> 00:02:40,830 more time to think about so you might 有更多时间思考,所以您可能 48 00:02:41,030 --> 00:02:42,540 want to pause the video here just for a 想要在这里暂停视频只是为了 49 00:02:42,740 --> 00:02:47,700 second and now when you think about it 第二,现在当您考虑它时 50 00:02:47,900 --> 00:02:50,219 you see that C would be the winner under 您会看到C将是下一个赢家 51 00:02:50,419 --> 00:02:52,830 pure reality with in elimination and why 消除中的纯现实,为什么 52 00:02:53,030 --> 00:02:59,580 is that well you'd first run a plurality 那是您首先要运行多个 53 00:02:59,780 --> 00:03:03,000 and you'll see that B is the loser 你会看到B是失败者 54 00:03:03,199 --> 00:03:08,490 so B would leave the competition if you 所以B如果你愿意离开比赛 55 00:03:08,689 --> 00:03:10,680 wish and now it'll be head-to-head 希望,现在将是正面交锋 56 00:03:10,879 --> 00:03:13,320 between CNA and in this case C would be 在CNA与C之间 57 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,080 the winner because 501 out of the 获胜者,因为501分 58 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,259 thousand agents prefer C to a so C would 成千上万的代理商更喜欢C而不是C 59 00:03:19,459 --> 00:03:22,439 be the winner and so two voted teams 成为赢家,所以有两个投票小组 60 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:23,759 both of them on the face of it 他们俩都面对它 61 00:03:23,959 --> 00:03:26,100 reasonable would give you different 合理会给你不同 62 00:03:26,300 --> 00:03:28,380 answers and both answer is different 答案和两个答案都不同 63 00:03:28,580 --> 00:03:30,509 from the criterion that on the face of 从面对的标准 64 00:03:30,709 --> 00:03:32,910 it seems quite a safe criterion namely 看来相当安全的标准是 65 00:03:33,110 --> 00:03:35,880 the cantos a foundation so here's cantos基础,所以这里是 66 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,850 another example and let's think about 另一个例子,让我们考虑一下 67 00:03:39,050 --> 00:03:43,439 what would happen in this case what 在这种情况下会发生什么 68 00:03:43,639 --> 00:03:45,750 would happen under pure reality voting 将在纯现实投票下发生 69 00:03:45,949 --> 00:03:49,680 well clearly under Florida voting a 很明显,在佛罗里达投票下 70 00:03:49,879 --> 00:03:55,500 would win since I would get 35 votes and 会赢,因为我将获得35票, 71 00:03:55,699 --> 00:03:59,120 the second highest would be B with 33 第二高的是33 72 00:03:59,319 --> 00:04:03,689 what would happened under the board of 在董事会的领导下会发生什么 73 00:04:03,889 --> 00:04:07,080 voting this takes a little more thinking 投票这需要更多的思考 74 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,030 and you might want to pause just for a 而您可能只想暂停一下 75 00:04:09,229 --> 00:04:12,890 second the video but when you continue 第二个视频,但是当您继续时 76 00:04:13,090 --> 00:04:15,630 by that time you'll quickly realize that 到那时你会很快意识到 77 00:04:15,830 --> 00:04:18,980 again a would be the winner under border 再一次将是边界下的赢家 78 00:04:19,180 --> 00:04:23,970 and clearly you have 显然你有 79 00:04:24,170 --> 00:04:28,560 a B and C each appearing in each of the B和C分别出现在每个 80 00:04:28,759 --> 00:04:32,430 places one two or three with a appearing 放置一两个或三个出现 81 00:04:32,629 --> 00:04:34,500 with the largest number of agents and 代理商数量最多 82 00:04:34,699 --> 00:04:38,670 the higher locations so they would have 较高的位置,所以他们将有 83 00:04:38,870 --> 00:04:40,949 the highest board account and would be 董事会最高帐户,并且 84 00:04:41,149 --> 00:04:44,340 the one or two so this looks very good 一两个这样看起来很好 85 00:04:44,540 --> 00:04:50,220 but now what happens if she drops out so 但是现在如果她退学了怎么办 86 00:04:50,420 --> 00:04:54,150 C realizes that he has no no chance of C意识到自己没有机会 87 00:04:54,350 --> 00:04:57,240 winning the election and drops out now 赢得选举,现在退学 88 00:04:57,439 --> 00:04:59,189 what would happen under the both 在这两种情况下会发生什么 89 00:04:59,389 --> 00:05:02,790 plurality and border just you might want 您可能想要的复数和边框 90 00:05:02,990 --> 00:05:04,319 to pause for a second the video and 暂停一秒钟的视频, 91 00:05:04,519 --> 00:05:08,699 think about it and when you do you 考虑一下,什么时候做 92 00:05:08,899 --> 00:05:11,520 realize that in both cases B would win 意识到在两种情况下B都会赢 93 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:16,230 and so here you have a candidate that 所以这里有一个候选人 94 00:05:16,430 --> 00:05:21,079 has no chance of winning and is sole 没有获胜的机会,而且是唯一的 95 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,710 role if you wish is to change what 如果您希望改变的角色 96 00:05:25,910 --> 00:05:27,180 otherwise would be the outcome of the 否则将是 97 00:05:27,379 --> 00:05:31,500 elections here is another acuity of 这里的选举是 98 00:05:31,699 --> 00:05:34,470 voting schemes and imagine that we're 投票计划并想象我们 99 00:05:34,670 --> 00:05:36,509 doing terrorise elimination that is 做恐怖消除 100 00:05:36,709 --> 00:05:38,850 we're going to take one candidate to 我们将带一名候选人参加 101 00:05:39,050 --> 00:05:42,870 compare him to another take the winner 比较他和另一个获胜者 102 00:05:43,069 --> 00:05:44,790 comparing to a third and so on and so 比较三分之一等等 103 00:05:44,990 --> 00:05:48,629 forth so the order in which we compare 所以我们比较的顺序 104 00:05:48,829 --> 00:05:50,579 the candidates we call that the agenda 我们称之为议程的候选人 105 00:05:50,779 --> 00:05:53,220 so somebody needs to set the agenda we 所以有人需要设定议程 106 00:05:53,420 --> 00:05:56,340 call that person the attenders agenda 将该人称为与会者议程 107 00:05:56,540 --> 00:06:00,240 setter so imagine pairwise elimination 二传手,所以想像成对消除 108 00:06:00,439 --> 00:06:03,300 with the order of comparison ABC in 与比较顺序ABC在 109 00:06:03,500 --> 00:06:05,160 other words a would be compared to B and 换句话说a将与B进行比较 110 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,520 then B will be compared to C so who 那么B将与C相比较 111 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:09,930 would be the winner of this election a 将是这次选举的赢家 112 00:06:10,129 --> 00:06:12,030 good time to pause the video and think 暂停视频并思考的好时机 113 00:06:12,230 --> 00:06:16,290 about it and once you do you realize 关于它,一旦你意识到 114 00:06:16,490 --> 00:06:19,860 that C would be the winner because when C是赢家,因为当 115 00:06:20,060 --> 00:06:27,110 a is compared to B well we have be a与B相比较,我们已经 116 00:06:27,310 --> 00:06:31,319 preferred to a by a majority of the 被大多数人偏爱 117 00:06:31,519 --> 00:06:35,670 agents so a would be eliminated and then 代理,因此将被淘汰,然后 118 00:06:35,870 --> 00:06:38,730 when the winner namely B is compared to 当获胜者即B与 119 00:06:38,930 --> 00:06:43,740 C you'll see that C is preferred to B by C,您会看到C比B更偏爱B 120 00:06:43,939 --> 00:06:46,860 the majority of the agent and therefore 大多数代理商,因此 121 00:06:47,060 --> 00:06:50,250 C will be the winner of this election C将是这次选举的获胜者 122 00:06:50,449 --> 00:06:54,689 with this ordering what happens with 按照这种顺序会发生什么 123 00:06:54,889 --> 00:06:58,650 another ordering like ACB again you 再次像ACB一样订购 124 00:06:58,850 --> 00:07:00,870 might want to pause the video and when 可能想暂停视频以及何时 125 00:07:01,069 --> 00:07:02,579 we read by the time you resume will 我们会在您恢复简历时阅读 126 00:07:02,779 --> 00:07:05,610 realize that this case B would be the 意识到这种情况B将是 127 00:07:05,810 --> 00:07:08,430 winner and perhaps not surprisingly when 赢家,也许并不奇怪 128 00:07:08,629 --> 00:07:10,350 you asked about the third ordering BCA 您询问了第三个订购BCA 129 00:07:10,550 --> 00:07:13,500 you'll see that a would be the or the 您会看到a将是或 130 00:07:13,699 --> 00:07:15,629 winner there and so it's a little 那里的赢家,所以有点 131 00:07:15,829 --> 00:07:19,020 perhaps disconcerting that a the same 也许让我感到相同 132 00:07:19,220 --> 00:07:22,350 voting scheme merely by deciding on the 仅通过决定投票方案 133 00:07:22,550 --> 00:07:24,629 order in which you run it would lead to 您运行的顺序将导致 134 00:07:24,829 --> 00:07:27,870 very different results and here is 非常不同的结果,这是 135 00:07:28,069 --> 00:07:30,990 another example there are three agents 另一个例子有三个代理 136 00:07:31,189 --> 00:07:34,560 and four candidates and the preferences 和四个候选人和偏好 137 00:07:34,759 --> 00:07:39,300 are written up there now consider again 被写在那里,现在再考虑 138 00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:42,449 pairwise elimination with the ABCD 与ABCD成对消除 139 00:07:42,649 --> 00:07:47,280 ordering and what would you get again 订购,您还会得到什么 140 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,170 pause the video for a second think about 暂停视频再三思 141 00:07:49,370 --> 00:07:53,129 it and realize that the winner would be 并意识到获胜者将是 142 00:07:53,329 --> 00:08:04,170 d what about what about this case we're d我们在这种情况下怎么样 143 00:08:04,370 --> 00:08:06,540 not talking about different orderings 不谈论不同的顺序 144 00:08:06,740 --> 00:08:08,340 we're talking about a given ordering and 我们在谈论给定的顺序, 145 00:08:08,540 --> 00:08:11,220 an outcome but there's something a 结果,但有一些 146 00:08:11,420 --> 00:08:15,150 little troubling about this outcome what 这个结果有点令人不安 147 00:08:15,350 --> 00:08:20,930 is it pause the video think about it and 视频暂停了吗? 148 00:08:21,129 --> 00:08:23,730 realize that the problem is that 意识到问题是 149 00:08:23,930 --> 00:08:31,800 everyone prefers B to D here right so B 每个人都喜欢B比D好,所以B 150 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,559 is preferred to D here be referred to D 优先于D,这里称为D 151 00:08:34,759 --> 00:08:39,120 here and be referred to D here and yet d 在这里,并在这里被称为D 152 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:43,370 this purrito dominated candidate wins 这个purrito主导的候选人获胜 153 00:08:43,570 --> 00:08:49,750 something is wrong in this picture well 这幅画出了点问题 154 00:08:49,950 --> 00:08:53,509 the goal here was not to give us the 目的不是要给我们 155 00:08:53,710 --> 00:08:55,429 final answer what what is the right way 最后的答案是什么正确的方法 156 00:08:55,629 --> 00:08:59,919 to vote in fact that is not well-defined 投票实际上定义不明确 157 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,979 the goal was to alert us to that the 目的是提醒我们 158 00:09:04,179 --> 00:09:07,389 fact that a lot of reasonable sounding 事实很多合理 159 00:09:07,589 --> 00:09:11,449 voting schemes can can be problematic 投票方案可能会有问题 160 00:09:11,649 --> 00:09:15,199 and so with this note of caution 因此请注意 161 00:09:15,399 --> 00:09:20,399 we'll finish this segment 我们将结束本段