经济学人商业 || 德国蓝筹股

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491580&idx=1&sn=c4d69a9e35cfa84ac472223a0912e790&chksm=fba04c5bccd7c54d55647874634f3f332b5984544ae5c125bd6728c1890d07071dcd77ff2558#rd

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导读


感谢思维导图作者

Rena, 坐标墨尔本的留学生,爱笑爱摄影爱看书


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听力|精读|翻译|词组

German blue chips

德国蓝筹股

英文部分选自经济学人20200829期Business版块

German blue chips

德国蓝筹股


Ascend and deliver

外卖上榜


Delivery Hero could last longer in the DAX 30 than the firm it has replaced

比起被取代的公司,外卖超人会在DAX 30榜上停留更久


Promising, with a few riders

和骑手们一同期待


Joining the index of Germany’s 30 biggest listed companies is usually a cause of celebration for the joiner rather than of controversy. Yet the arrival of Delivery Hero in the DAX 30 on August 24th ignited a fierce debate. How, critics grumble, can a food-delivery company that has never made money or paid a dividend, and no longer even does business in Germany, sit alongside Siemens, a 173-year-old engineering behemoth, and Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, in the elite group of the bluest of German blue chips?


加入德国30家最大上市公司的指数,通常是一件值得庆祝而非引发争议的事。然而外卖超人在824日加入DAX 30指数却引发了一场激烈的争论。批评者颇有微词:一家从未盈利也未支付股息,甚至不再在德国开展业务的送餐公司,怎么能与拥有173年历史的工程巨头西门子和欧洲最大汽车制造商大众一起跻身于德国蓝筹股最蓝的精英集团之列?


注:

1. 蓝筹股是指在某一行业中处于重要支配地位,业绩优良,交投活跃,红利优厚的大公司的股票,在一些地方也将蓝筹股视为"绩优股"。但蓝筹股并不等于具有很高投资价值的股票。蓝筹一词源于西方赌场。在西方赌场中,有三种颜色的筹码,其中蓝色筹码最为值钱,红色筹码次之,白色筹码最差。投资者把这些行话套用到股票上,引申为最大规模或市值的上市公司。一般人将蓝筹股等同股票成份股,但事实上成份股不一定是最大或最佳的上市公司。

2. 德国DAX指数 (德语:Der Dax最早来源于Deutscher Aktienindex)是德国重要的股票指数。由德意志交易所集团(Deutsche Börse Group)推出的一个蓝筹股指数。该指数中包含有30家主要的德国公司。DAX指数是全欧洲与英国伦敦金融时报指数齐名的重要证券指数,也是世界证券市场中的重要指数之一。


The simple answer is that membership of the DAX is determined mainly by market value and turnover of shares, with no profitability test (unlike America’s S&P 500 index of big firms, which requires four consecutive quarters in the black, among other criteria). And in that respect, Delivery Hero qualifies handily. Niklas Ostberg, its Swedish chief executive, boasts that the firm’s market capitalisation of €18.7bn ($22bn) is higher than that of several DAX members. Its share price has tripled over the past couple of years and it has attracted investments from the world’s richest companies, including Alibaba and Amazon, two global internet giants.


简单来说,DAX的成员资格主要由市值和股票换手率决定,没有盈利能力测试(不像美国的标准普尔500大公司指数要求连续四个季度盈利,以及其他准则)。这样来看,外卖超人轻而易举就达到标准了。外卖超人瑞典首席执行官尼克拉斯·奥斯特伯格(Niklas Ostberg)夸耀公司的市值为187亿欧元(约合1499.72亿人民币),高于DAX的几家成员公司。它的股价在过去几年里涨了两倍,吸引了世界上最富有的公司投资,包括两家全球互联网巨头阿里巴巴和亚马逊。


注:

1. In the black 盈利;

有盈余Remington's operations in Japan are now in the black.

2. In the red 亏本

3. 股票换手率:换手率也称周转率,指在一定时间内市场中股票转手买卖的频率,是反映股票流通性强弱的指标之一。以样本总体的性质不同有不同的指标类型,如交易所所有上市股票的总换手率、基于某单个股票发行数量的换手率、基于某机构持有组合的换手率。技术分析的诸多工具中,换手率指标是反映市场交投活跃程度最重要的技术指标之一。(选自《百度百科》)


Ironically, a big reason for investors’ enthusiasm is Delivery Hero’s non-German focus. A few years ago it offloaded its German businesses, Foodora, Lieferheld and Pizza.de, to Takeaway, a Dutch competitor. Since then it has eyed expansion in the Middle East and Asia. At the end of last year 50% of the company’s revenue came from the Middle East and north Africa, 30% from Asia and 12% from Europe. “It is today essentially an emerging-markets business,” says Monique Pollard of Citigroup.


颇为讽刺的是,投资者对外卖超人保有热情的一个重要原因却是该公司的重心不在德国。几年前它将旗下包括Foodora, Lieferheld Pizza.de在内的德国业务打包出售给荷兰竞争对手Takeaway。从那时起,外卖超人就已着眼于中东和亚洲地区的业务扩张。去年年底公司收益的50%来自于中东和北非地区,亚洲占30%,欧洲则是12%。花旗集团的莫尼克·波拉德(Monique Pollard)表示:本质上而言,外卖超人是一家着眼于新兴市场的企业


Many food-delivery firms do not operate their own fleets of vehicles but instead match consumers with restaurants and riders. That means they must share their cut with both restaurants and riders. “It is very hard to make a profit with the three-way-split model in Europe,” explains Andrew Gwynn of Exane BNP Paribas. But the model works in emerging markets where order sizes are large and delivery workers’ wages low.


许多外卖公司并不直接经营他们的车队,而是将消费者与餐馆和骑手配对。这也就是说他们必须将自己利润的一部分分给餐馆和骑手。法国巴黎银行(Exane BNP Paribas)的安德鲁·格温(Andrew Gwynn)对此的解释是这种三分利润的模式在欧洲很难开展。但这种模式在新兴市场却很奏效,因为那儿的订单量大,而且骑手的工资也比较低。


Delivery Hero could become a viable business, if it manages to keep its focus on the developing world and stay on top of the next wave of consolidation, which began with the combination of Just Eat and Takeaway, two European firms, earlier this year, and their proposed takeover of America’s Grubhub in June. At the very least it has a decent shot at staying in the DAX longer that firm it replaced. Wirecard, a payments-processor bankrupted earlier this year by a huge accounting fraud, was booted out of the index barely two years after its own ascension. 


如果外卖超人将重心继续放在新兴市场,并能在下一波并购潮中占据主动地位,其业务将会持续生存和发展。今年早些时候,两家欧洲公司Just EatTakeaway合并拉开了这波并购大戏的帷幕,他们在6月份又收购了美国的Grubhub。目前看来,至少外卖超人逗留DAX指数的时间很可能会超过被它取代的Wirecard。提供支付服务的企业Wirecard今年早些时候因巨额财务造假而破产,被赶出了DAX指数,停留了两年时间。


翻译组:

VeRy, 男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者

Sophie, 女,HR让我做自己,券商带我看世界

校对组:

Humi, 女,CATerCatti二笔

Hannah,女,教书匠,经济学人粉丝

Zoey, 女,咨询行业,爱挠头的英文码字工


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Elle, 女,靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆

上周4个人自驾游去了古水北镇,却发现禁止私家车进景区,到了偏僻的民宿却发现竟是外卖无法送达之地,简直令人震惊。

毕竟外卖近几年发展繁荣,科技巨头们让我们的生活变得很容易了。外卖市场的角逐,从混战到三家鼎立再到双雄争霸。每天看着外卖小哥为了养家糊口忙来忙去,着实觉得挣钱不容易。仔细一想,商家卖货,外卖小哥送货,平台提供技术服务,商家和小哥不知道赚多少钱,可是平台几乎就是躺着赚钱。想想真是羡慕嫉妒。而且也走出了国门,看了BAT和京东的海外投资之路,才惊觉资本家原来都是这么玩,就好比你有了修路的想法,但发现原来人家不仅已经修了路,还硬化了路面,不禁感叹资本力量无穷。

有资本就可以一直收购收购再收购,养的足够肥,再脱手,怎么算都是不亏的买卖。就像软银投资阿里巴巴,最后都成了软银的救命稻草,细观各个行业,资本让你红,你就可以红,资本让你垮,你就会垮。资本力量果真无穷啊!普普通通老百姓,总是被不情不愿的当一颗翠绿翠绿的韭菜等着被收割。


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愿景


打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

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