原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491651&idx=1&sn=d30868c5e626313a3f413807908dff9b&chksm=fba3b3e4ccd43af22fa734e5fae6dc96d480758bbf158cbfbb0397130fb69207c34e79afa0c1#rd
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May Li,男,我要去追逐心中的太阳,还要继续努力的亚古兽
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New job description
新职责描述
英文部分选自经济学人20200905期财经版块
The Federal Reserve
美联储
New job description
新职责描述
The Fed’s move to emphasise full employment could start a global trend
美联储强调充分就业的举措可能引发一种全球趋势
In 2018, when America’s long recovery from the 2007-09 financial crisis pushed the unemployment rate below 4%, the Federal Reserve had a simple message for American workers: do not get used to it. The central bank’s economic projections revealed that its officials believed 4.5% to be the lowest sustainable jobless rate, to which America would need to return to stop inflation surging upwards. If higher interest rates and slower growth were needed to achieve that, so be it.
当2007-09年金融危机后,美国经历了中长期复苏,2018年失业率降至4%以下。此时,美联储向美国工作者传达了一条简单的信息:别沉浸于此。中央银行的经济预测显示,官方认为4.5%是最低的可持续性失业率,美国需要回到该水平以阻止通货膨胀上升。如果需要加息和放缓增长来实现这一目标,那也得这么做。
注释:
so be it: used for saying that you accept a situation in which something has been decided or is necessary, although you are not happy about it.
On August 27th Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, acknowledged what common sense suggested two years before: that an intentional increase in unemployment is an odd thing to pursue after nearly 20 years of depressed labour-market conditions. Speaking at an annual central-banking shindig, Mr Powell unveiled the conclusions of a monetary-policy strategy review begun in 2019. The coming changes to Fed policymaking could initiate an important global shift in central-bank practice.
8月27日,美联储主席杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔承认了两年前就明摆着的常识,在低迷的劳动力市场状况持续了20年后,故意提高失业率是一件奇怪的事情。鲍威尔在一年一度的中央银行会议上发表讲话,发布了自2019年开始的货币政策战略评估的结论。美联储政策制定即将发生变化,这可能会引发全球范围内央行业务的重大转变。
注释:
1. intentional:故意的;有意的;存心的
2. unveiled:为…揭幕;揭开…上的覆盖物;拉开…的帷幔
The Fed’s old framework was forged by the inflationary tumult of the 1970s. Post-war economists understood there to be a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment—known as the Phillips curve—such that policymakers could push unemployment as low as they liked, provided they were prepared to accept more inflation. But soaring prices persuaded many that this relationship did not hold below some minimum sustainable level of unemployment. Attempts to push joblessness lower would yield higher inflation, but at best only a temporary reduction in unemployment. By the 1990s, most central banks had resolved to target a low level of inflation, generally around 2%.
美联储的旧框架是在20世纪70年代的通胀动荡中形成的。战后经济学家们认识到,通胀与失业之间存在一种负相关关系,即菲利普斯曲线(Phillips curve)。因此只要准备好接受更高的通胀,政策制定者就可以将失业率降至他们喜欢的水平。但飞涨的物价让许多人相信,在某个最低可持续失业水平以下,两者关系不再适用。试图降低失业率会导致更高的通胀率,但最多只能暂时降低失业率。到了20世纪90年代,大多数央行都下定决心将通胀目标控制在一个在较低水平,通常为2%左右。
注释:
forged:v. 锻造,铸造;缔造,艰苦做成;伪造;稳步前进,匀速移动
But since the embrace of inflation targeting in the 1990s, the relationship between employment and inflation has weakened. Soaring joblessness during the Great Recession failed to produce the expected plunge in prices. Neither have low levels of unemployment since then ended an era of historically low inflation. Precisely why the relationship between inflation and joblessness changed is uncertain. Some economists reckon central banks’ credibility in managing inflation anchored the public’s expectations too well. Others point to a decline in workers’ bargaining power, which has eased the pressure on firms to raise prices in order to cover the cost of expensive pay packets. Still others point to technological change and globalisation, which expand consumer options and allow firms to respond to increased demand without raising prices. Whatever the cause, the flattening Phillips curve biased monetary policy in an overly hawkish way, eventually prompting the Fed rethink.
但自20世纪90年代引入通胀目标以来,就业与通胀之间的相关性已经减弱。大萧条期间飙升的失业率未能导致预期的价格暴跌。从那时起,低失业率也没能终结历史性的低通胀时代。通胀和失业之间的关系发生变化的准确原因尚不确定。一些经济学家认为,央行在通胀管理方面的公信力过于牢靠地锚定了公众的预期。另一些人指出,工人议价能力的下降缓解了企业为支付高昂的工资成本而提高价格的压力。还有一些人指出,技术变革和全球化扩大了消费者的选择,使企业能够在不涨价的情况下应对需求的增加。无论原因是什么,平坦化的菲利普斯曲线使货币政策过于偏向鹰派,最终促使美联储重新思考。
注释:
1. plunge:If an amount or rate plunges, it decreases quickly and suddenly. 骤降
2. hawkish:鹰派的,强硬派的,在美联储货币政策上偏向紧缩,如加息。对应为dovish,鸽派,温和的,偏向宽松的货币政策,如降息。
The changes to its framework may seem modest. Because the maximum sustainable level of employment cannot be measured, the Fed will give up worrying about overshooting it and focus only on employment shortfalls. The 2% inflation target remains a constraint, but a more flexible one than before. It should be hit on average, Mr Powell explained, meaning that periods of below-target inflation can be offset by at least some time with inflation above the target as well.
框架的变化似乎并不显著。由于无法衡量最大可持续就业水平,美联储将放弃对过度就业的担忧,转而只关注就业不足。2%的通胀目标仍然是一个制约因素,但相比以往更加灵活。鲍威尔解释道,通胀应平均地达到这一水平,意味着低于通胀目标的时期至少可以被某个超过通胀目标的时期所抵消。
注释:
overshoot:If a government or organization overshoots its budget, it spends more than it had planned to. 超出
But the conceptual change—abandoning the notion of a minimum sustainable unemployment rate—is significant. And the practical effects could be large. Had the Fed enjoyed more freedom in recent years, it could have raised interest rates more gradually, or not at all, enabling a faster and more complete labour-market recovery.
但放弃最低可持续失业率是重大的概念转变,而且实际影响可能很大。如果近年来美联储拥有更多的自由,它可能会更加循序渐进地提高利率,或者根本不提高利率,从而实现更快、更全面的劳动力市场复苏。
注释:
conceptual:Conceptual means related to ideas and concepts formed in the mind. 概念的
Whether policy will change much in practice is as yet unclear. Markets, for their part, appear not to see a radical change of regime in the offing. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are around 1.7%, below the Fed’s 2% target. American stockmarkets, which seem to soar at the gentlest of nudges, have rallied, some hitting record highs in the past week. More important is the reaction in foreign-exchange markets. The greenback has slipped nearly 1% against a basket of major currencies since Mr Powell’s speech, bringing its total decline since May to about 8%. A weakening dollar could indicate that markets see more room for policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, whose mandate does not explicitly require it to minimise joblessness.
政策是否在实践中改变很多尚不明确。就市场而言,其体制似乎不会立即发生彻底变化。基于市场的通胀预期指标接近1.7%,低于美联储2%的目标。美国股市似乎在最温和的刺激下就会大涨,目前已经反弹,一些股票在上周创下历史最高点。外汇市场的反应更为重要。自鲍威尔演讲以来,美元兑一篮子主要货币已下跌近1%,自五月以来总计下跌约8%。越来越疲软的美元意味着,市场认为美联储和其他中央银行之间存在更大政策差异的空间,尤其是欧洲中央银行,该行获得的的授权没有明确要求将失业率降至最低。
Under any circumstances, the macroeconomic developments which led the Fed to revise its strategy would no doubt have influenced other central banks to adjust their own policies. But in weak advanced economies with interest rates close to zero, currency appreciation against the dollar places a drag on spending which cannot easily be offset by further easing. The Fed may thus find that its modest adjustment encourages imitators elsewhere in surprisingly short order.
在任何情况下,导致美联储修改策略的宏观经济状况,无疑都会促使其他央行调整各自的政策。但在利率接近零的疲软先进经济体中,相对美元的货币升值会阻碍消费,并且无法轻易被更大程度的宽松政策所抵消。美联储或因此发现,微调在极短时间内鼓励了其他地方的模仿者。
Ellie,女,金融硕士,经济学人粉丝
Brittany,女,会计金融美本,行业分析师,爱经济学人
Jessie Lulu,女,金融从业者,爱阳光,爱细雨,爱经济学人
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本次感想
Alan,男,金融工程硕士,经济学人粉丝
任何一种货币政策在施行的时候,它的相反面总是看上去更加美好。为了抑制通胀而采取的偏紧的货币政策,让不得不承受更高失业率的经济更渴望流动性充裕的政策;而边际宽松的货币政策带来的通胀率与资产泛滥,让人们渴望更紧的货币政策。世界上并没有一种完美的货币政策,能够兼顾到所有变量的政策在经济学中是没有的,这意味着政策制定者不得不谨慎选择手中拥有的工具,以折衷的方式来调控经济(包括政策制定者应不应该、是否有能力调控经济,这个问题本身在经济学领域也是争论不休的,所以政策制定者在多大程度上调控经济这件事也是折衷的,原因是政策制定者也不是完美的)。
菲利普斯曲线的逐渐失真,可能与经济运行的微观结构有关。原因可能是:1)货币并没有流入通胀率所对应的一揽子商品中,最典型的不属于通胀率囊括的商品为金融资产和房地产;2)货币确实流入了通胀率所对应的一揽子商品中,但是提供这些商品的厂商选择固定价格不变,一般来说只有龙头效应明显的厂商会选择这么做;3)通胀率所对应的一揽子商品不具备代表性,比如通胀率商品篮子目录要经过3-10年更新一次导致这个篮子太过过时,或者是并没有选择居民日常生活中具备典型性的商品进行统计。
Fed的这次调整将显著影响美国日后的货币供应量,从原来的目标为2%通胀率调整为2%平均通胀率,其变化是史无前例的。更低的失业率是毫无疑问的,但是另一个隐患是,货币量的大幅伸缩会带来金融资产的大幅升贬,从而可能带来更大的贫富差距,就目前美国处于历史新高的贫富差距而言,这样的隐患是巨大的。在所有可选用的政策中,货币政策是最立竿见影的,但是它往往最不能够解决核心的长期问题。
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