经济学人社论 || 新能源秩序

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491761&idx=1&sn=a845b75b28fdfc1c49318821d59cf13c&chksm=fba3b316ccd43a0010fea09893530aa6bc93808f1691667336dd17cc05ccbe13d62b5bed6437#rd

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The new energy order

新能源秩序

英文部分选自经济学人20200918Leaders版块

The new energy order

新能源秩序


Power in the 21 st century

21世纪能源


Efforts to rein in climate change will up-end the geopolitics of energy

遏制气候变化的努力将颠覆能源地缘政治格局


Oil fuelled the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order. As covid-19 struck the global economy earlier this year, demand for oil dropped by more than a fifth and prices collapsed. Since then there has been a jittery recovery, but a return to the old world is unlikely. Fossil-fuel producers are being forced to confront their vulnerabilities. ExxonMobil has been ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having been a member since 1928. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia need an oil price of $70-80 a barrel to balance their budgets. Today it is scraping along at just $40.


石油推动20世纪汽车、战争、经济和地缘政治的展。当前,世界正经受一场加速向新秩序转变的能源危机。今年年初, covid-19重挫全球经济,石油需求下降了五分之一以上,油价暴跌。从那时起,虽有星星点点的经济复苏,但重返之前的生活基本不可能。化石燃料生产商只能直面自己的弱点。埃克森美孚自1928年以来一直是道琼斯工业平均指数(DowJones Industrial Average成员之一,但今年,它惨遭除名。沙特阿拉伯这样的石油输出国,想要平衡开支,必须保证每桶油价在70-80美元。而现在的油价只能勉强达到每桶40美元。


There have been oil slumps before, but this one is different. As the public, governments and investors wake up to climate change, the clean-energy industry is gaining momentum. Capital markets have shifted: clean-power stocks are up by 45% this year. With interest rates near zero, politicians are backing green-infrastructure plans. America’s Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, wants to spend $2trn decarbonising America’s economy. The European Union has earmarked 30% of its $880bn covid-19 recovery plan for climate measures, and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, used her state-of-the-union address this week to confirm that she wants the EU to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% over 1990 levels in the next decade.


石油价格也曾暴跌,但这次情况不同。随着公众、政府和投资者慢慢认识到气候变化的危害,清洁能源行业的发展愈发蓬勃。资本市场发生了变化:今年,清洁能源股票上涨了45%。由于利率接近于零,政客们都支持绿色基础设施方案。美国民主党总统竞选人乔·拜登希望花费2万亿美元让美国经济脱碳。欧盟已将8800亿美元的covid-19恢复计划资金中的30%用于改善气候,欧盟主席乌苏拉德莱恩本周在国情咨文中表示,她希望欧盟在未来十年内将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上减少55%


注:
wake up to sth: 
to become aware of sth; to realize sth,意识到、认识到


The 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.


21世纪的能源体系有望比石油时代更好地造福人类的健康,并让政治和经济更加稳定。但这种转变不会一帆风顺。万一发生混乱,可能会加剧石油国家的政治和经济的不稳定,并加强了中国对绿色供应链的控制。更危险的是,这种转变可能姗姗来迟。


Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.


如今,85%的能源来自化石燃料。但化石燃料会带来污染。能源相关的温室气体排放占全球总量的三分之二;燃烧化石燃料带来的污染每年使400多万人致死,大部分死者都来自新兴世界的大城市。石油还是政治上的不稳定因子。几十年来,诸如委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯之类的石油国家,无心发展经济,深陷发放救济和任人唯亲的政治泥潭。为了保证石油的安全供应,各个大国争相对石油国家施加影响,尤其是在中东地区,美国大约有6万驻军。化石燃料还会引起经济波动。卡特尔联盟反复无常,石油市场饱受冲击。全球石油储备相对集中,导致石油供应深受地缘政治的牵制。难怪1970年以来,半年内石油价格涨跌超过30%的情况多达62次。


注:

be mired in: in a difficult or unpleasant situation that you cannot escape from,处于……困境中


A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.


新能源体系逐渐显现眉目。如果采取大胆行动,太阳能和风能等可再生能源所提供的电力占比将从目前的5%升至2035年的25%2050年将高达近50%。石油和煤炭用量将下降,但更为清洁的天然气仍将扮演核心角色。这样的能源结构最终将带来巨大效益。如今,气候变化近乎失控,严重的干旱、饥荒、洪灾和大规模的流离失所屡见不鲜。上述能源结构最大优势在于,能源一旦实现去碳化,人类就有望避免上述种种混乱。随着新能源体系日臻成熟,能源供应的地理分布将更为广泛,技术更为多样化,从而促进政治稳定。石油国家将不得不进行自我革新。在这一过程中,政府开始依赖本国公民缴纳的税赋,这将增强某些石油国家的国民代表性(政府将变得更民主)。曾经通过干预石油生产国国内政治寻求能源安全的消费国,将转而努力实现对本国能源行业的合理监管。21世纪的能源体系不会再饱受经济动荡之苦。电价将由竞争和逐渐提高的效率决定,而不再是由几个主要参与者说了算。


Yet even as a better energy system emerges, the threat of a poorly managed transition looms. Two risks stand out. Autocratic China could temporarily gain clout over the global power system because of its dominance in making key components and developing new technologies. Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an “electrostate”. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.


尽管一个更佳的能源体系已出现,转型过渡之际一旦治理不善,也会出现莫大威胁。主要风险有二。因其在制造关键组件和开发新技术方面占据主导地位,中国可能会暂时对全球电力系统形成较大的影响力。当下,中国企业生产出了全球72%的太阳能组件、69%的锂离子电池和45%的风力涡轮机。中国公司还控制着很多矿物提炼产业,这些矿物对清洁能源至关重要,如钴和锂。相比石油国家,中国可能会变成一个电力国家。在过去六个月里,中国采取了一系列举措,包括宣布投资电动汽车基础设施和输电系统、在巴基斯坦测试一座核电站以及考虑囤积金属钴。


China’s leverage depends on how fast other economies move . Europe is home to giant developers of wind and solar farms—Orsted, Enel and Iberdrola are building such projects around the world. European firms are leading the race to cut their own emissions, too. America’s trajectory has been affected by the rise of shale oil and gas, which has made it the world’s largest oil producer, and by Republican resistance to decarbonisation measures. If America were to act on climate change—with, say, a carbon tax and new infrastructure—its capital markets, national energy laboratories and universities would make it a formidable green power.


中国的影响力取决于其他经济体的进展。欧洲拥有多个风能、太阳能开发巨头如丹麦沃旭能源、意大利国家电力公司及西班牙伊贝德拉电力公司。它们正在世界各地建设此类项目。欧洲企业也在带头减排。美国的新能源发展轨迹受到页岩油气的崛起(美国因此成为世界上最大的石油生产国)以及共和党对脱碳措施的抵制的影响。如果美国通过征收碳税、建设新型基础设施等举措来应对气候变化,那么在其资本市场、国家能源实验室和高等院校的作用下,它将成为绿色强国。


The other big risk is the transition of petrostates, which account for 8% of world gdp and nearly 900m citizens. As oil demand dwindles, they will face a vicious fight for market share which will be won by the countries with the cheapest and cleanest crude. Even as they grapple with the growing urgency of economic and political reform, the public resources to pay for it may dwindle. This year Saudi Arabia’s government revenue fell by 49% in the second quarter. A perilous few decades lie ahead. 


另一大风险来自石油国的转型。石油国占世界GDP8%,拥有近9亿公民。而随着石油需求减少,它们将面临一场争夺市场份额的恶战。谁的价格最低、原油最洁净,谁就能成为赢家。即使这些国家努力应对日益紧迫的经济和政治改革,但为此付出公共资源可能减少。今年第二季度,沙特阿拉伯的政府财政收入下降了49%。未来几十年依然危机重重。


Faced with these dangers, the temptation will be to ease the adjustment, by taking the transition more slowly. However, that would bring about a different, even more destabilising set of climate-related consequences. Instead, as our special report in this issue explains, the investments being contemplated fall drastically short of what is needed to keep temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, let alone the 1.5°C required to limit the environmental, economic and political turmoil of climate change. For example, annual investment in wind and solar capacity needs to be about $750bn, triple recent levels. And if the shift towards fossil-fuel-free renewable energy accelerates, as it must, it will cause even more geopolitical turbulence. The move to a new energy order is vital, but it will be messy. 


面对这些危机,各国可能会放慢转型速度来放缓调整步伐。然而,这又会带来一系列不同的气候挑战,甚至比原先更不稳定。正相反,就像我们在本期特别报告中所说的那样,要将全球气温控制在工业化之前的2°C以内,我们的预期投资还远远不足,更不用说将其降低至1.5°C,以限制气候变化引起的环境、经济和政治动荡了。举个例子,每年风能、太阳能投资需求约为7500亿美元,是近期水平的三倍。如果必须加速从化石燃料向可再生能源的转变,这会加剧地缘政治的动荡。向新的能源秩序转变至关重要,但转变过程却很棘手。


翻译组:

Sylvia,女,爱健身的小翻译,经济学人粉儿

Cecilia,女,一口一笔,无可救药的乐观主义者

Jessie, 女 ,旅游业转行口译,喜欢教书与读书 


校对组:

Neil,  男,外贸民工,经济学人铁粉

Hannah,女,英语教书匠,经济学人粉丝

Rex,男,口译硕士,集书狂魔,经学钢粉

Miranda,女,翻译在读,爱哭又爱笑的00


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Phoenix ,女 , 人口买卖从业者(HR),不拘一格爱玩儿福娃

        2020年因冠状病毒-19对全球经济的打击,石油需求量下降,油价暴跌,世界被卷入一场能源冲击之中。公众、政府和投资者对气候变化觉醒,并因他们大胆的行动,21世纪新能源系统正在浮现,新系统将更利于人类健康,稳定政治,减少经济动荡。

        中国暂时对全球电力系统的影响力,石油输出国间因石油需求量减少争夺市场份额的恶性竞争,将是新能源系统成熟过程中面临的两大危机。欧洲公司带头减排和美国在气候变化问题上采取的行动,各大国对石油国家施加的影响可以在一定程度上缓和风险。新的不同气候挑战、更加动荡的地缘政治,都是转向新的能源系统过程可能会产生的棘手问题。

        读完此文,先喜后忧,为有益于人类生存的能源新系统正在形成而喜,又为在新系统成熟过程中人类可能面临新的不同气候挑战和动荡的地缘政治而忧。还好文章中提到的信息和从书本中了解的地理常识,让我淡定下来。
        文章提到了曾经富可敌国的石油输出国,随着新的替代能源出现和石油消费国开展的减排运动,石油的需求量日益减少,它们面临着经济发展不足和争夺石油市场恶性竞争的双重挑战。西方发达国家则开始增加清洁能源开发投资,开展减排运动,致力于建设新能源系统。石油这一不可再生能源资源从被争夺到最终被舍弃已成定势,这说明能源系统会更新,能满足人类需求对环境危害小的新能源不断被开发利用,传统能源逐渐被淘汰。对传统能源的掌控形成的影响力都是暂时的,开发和利用新能源是人类永远的追求。
        地理常识告诉我们,现代科技固然发达,但对我们赖以生存的地球了解少之又少。地球系统中隐藏着无限的能源,这就使人类开发新能源的探索总能有所获,新型能源总会出现,能源系统也会随之更新。
        综上,对现有能源物资的拥有量能在短暂时间内形成影响力,对更好能源的开发和技术运用才是掌控能源系统的决定力量,因为它着眼于人类生存,立足于地球系统。


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