经济学人财经 || 奇怪的复苏— 铜价金价同上涨

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491238&idx=1&sn=7191a48d0b442fac2e13040afe1e8b92&chksm=fba04d01ccd7c417bfd32862d01710b1a7e67eedb2531332a67875119a86799d4f365abad647#rd

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Zihan,男,对冲基金,大数据工程师


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听力|精读|翻译|词组

Shining brightly

闪闪发光

英文部分选自经济学人20200725期Finance版块

Shining brightly

闪闪发光


An odd recovery means that copper and gold prices are both rising

奇怪的复苏— 铜价金价同上涨


There is, supposedly, a neat choreography to copper and gold prices. When one rises, the other tends to fall. In an economic downturn, for instance, gold climbs as investors seek a haven. Copper prices dip as manufacturing and construction slow. But these are unusual times, and gold and copper are moving in unusual ways. Rather than continue their customary do-si-do, they are leaping upwards together.


铜和金的价格像是被一种整齐的舞蹈编排着。当一个价格上涨,另一个价格则下行。例如在经济低迷时,投资者为了寻求避险(投资黄金),金价攀升,铜价却随着制造业和建筑业萧条而下跌。但在不寻常的时期里,金和铜的价格走势也不走寻常路。它们不再如通常般背对背换位舞步,而是同时向上飞涨。


注:

1. red-hotadj. Red-hot is used to describe a person or thing that is very popular, especially someone who is very good at what they do or something that is new and exciting. 炙手可热的; 热门的

2. do-si-don. a square-dance figure in which dancers pass each other with right shoulders close or touching and circle back to back 跳方形舞时男女舞伴背对背换位舞步


The price of copper surpassed $6,000 a tonne in June, up about 30% since the depths of March. Gold this month topped $1,800 an ounce, approaching a record reached in 2011. Many analysts reckon it may exceed $2,000 this year or next. As the world continues to reel from covid-19, the economic outlook is uncertain and the recovery uneven from one country to the next. For those betting on gold and copper, this has proved a winning formula.


6月,铜价突破每吨6000美元,相较于三月的最低价格上涨了约30%。本月金价超过每盎司1800美元,接近2011年创下的记录。许多分析师预计金价将在今年或明年超过2000美元大关。由于全球依旧受新冠病毒的影响,经济前景仍不确定,不同国家的经济恢复程度也各不相同。对于那些在金和铜上押注的人来说,已找到了制胜之道。


注:

reelv. If someone reels, they move about in an unsteady way as if they are going to fall. 踉跄


Gold started its recent climb from an already lofty perch. The ascent began at the end of 2018, as a trade war between America and China clouded the prospects for economic growth. Sinking interest rates in America lowered the yield on ten-year inflation-indexed Treasury bonds, making gold shine brighter. From November 2018 to late 2019 the price of the yellow metal jumped by about 25%, to $1,515.


此次攀升前,金价已经处于高位。金价上涨始于2018年末,彼时的中美贸易战给经济增长笼罩了一层阴影。美国降低利率使得十年期通胀指数国债的收益率降低,这令黄金显得更加闪耀。从201811月到2019年末,黄金价格上涨至1515美元,涨幅约25%,。


Now covid-19 is propelling gold to even more vertiginous heights. Investors are scrambling for security, fearing a prolonged downturn as the virus continues to ravage giant economies such as America and Brazil. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds attracted $40bn in the first half of the year, a record. The dollar has weakened, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies to buy gold. Rates remain low. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in June that he was not even “thinking about thinking about” raising them. China, hit first by the virus, is recovering first, too, offering further upside. It is gold’s biggest retail market, and more shopping there would lift prices higher.


当下的疫情将金价推到了一个更高的位置。由于新冠病毒仍在美国和巴西等大型经济体肆虐,投资者争先恐后地追求安全性,害怕经济经历长期下滑。黄金ETF在今年上半年吸引了400亿美元,创下记录。美元走弱,对于其他货币的持有者来说,购买黄金更加便宜。利率维持在低位。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在6月份表示,他甚至都没有考虑过要去考虑提高利率这个问题。最先被疫情侵袭的中国也最先恢复,这为金价提供了进一步上涨空间。中国是全球最大的黄金零售市场,销售增长会提高黄金的价格。


注:

Vertiginous: adj, 令人眩晕的。 


Copper’s rise this year may be even more striking. Its price sank by more than a quarter from January to mid-March when covid-19 spread across China, which accounts for about half of the red metal’s consumption. Now, however, efforts to stimulate China’s economy are spurring investment. In June a tracker of sector-level demand for copper in China used by Citigroup, a bank, rose by 5.5% on the year, its biggest jump in over two years.


今年铜价的上涨可能更为惊人。1月至3月中旬当新冠病毒在中国蔓延时,其价格下跌了四分之一以上,中国占世界铜消费约50%。而现在,中国推动经济的举措刺激了投资。6月份,花旗银行(Citigroup)追踪了中国行业层面对铜的需求,同比增长5.5%,为两年来最大涨幅。


注:

Sank:下降,减少,下跌;If something sinks to a lower level or standard, it falls to that level or standard.


As China invests to recover from the pandemic, though, the Americas are still grappling with it, explains Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs, a bank. Because copper production is concentrated in South America, that has constrained supply. Some mines in Peru, shut because of the virus, are only slowly resuming production, points out Susan Bates of Morgan Stanley, another bank. In Chile, where mines have been operating with reduced staff, the deferral of needed maintenance may restrict supply in the months to come. And miners may strike, further threatening output.


投行高盛(Goldman Sachs)的杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)解释说,尽管中国大力投资以期经济从疫情中恢复,但是美洲国家却仍在努力抗击疫情。由于铜的生产集中在南美洲,因此供应受限。另一家投行摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的苏珊·贝茨(Susan Bates)指出,秘鲁一些矿山因病毒而关闭,目前也只是缓慢开始恢复生产。在智利,矿山的员工数量一直在减少,因此推迟进行必要的维护,也可能会限制未来几个月的供应。矿工还可能会罢工,若是则将进一步减产。


注:

1.grappling withv. 扭打;努力克服

2.deferral n. 延期;迟延;缓役


It is unclear how long copper prices can be sustained by investment in one place and infection in another. The metal’s traditional engine—strong global economic growth—is sputtering. Continued infections in America or a resurgence of the virus elsewhere could further depress demand for appliances, cars and other copper-dependent goods.


一方兴起,另一方深陷疫情,因此目前尚不清楚铜价上涨还会持续多久。金属价格的传统引擎——强劲的全球经济增长正在放缓脚步。美国疫情持续恶化,或其他国家病毒二次爆发或将进一步抑制消费者对家电、汽车和其他铜依赖型商品的需求。


That said, on July 21st European leaders agreed to new stimulus; and demand for copper may rise as countries outside China invest in electric grids and solar farms veined with the metal. Gold’s rally may be even more persistent, argues Mr Currie, supported by factors that linger through the 2020s: high debt levels that weigh on the dollar, and low interest rates. The journey skyward may not be over yet.


据说,今年721号,欧洲领导人同意了新的刺激方案。随着中国以外的国家投资电网和带有金属纹理的太阳能发电厂,铜的需求可能会上升。库里(Currie)先生认为,金价的上涨甚至可能更加持久,21世纪20年代持续存在的各种因素也印证了这一观点:影响美元的高债务水平和低利率。(金铜价格)这场上升的旅程或许还没有结束。


翻译组:

Ellie,女,金融硕士,经济学人粉丝

Alex,女,小研究员一枚,经济学人粉丝

Chao,男,爱读书思考的DPhil CandidateTE粉丝

Brittany,女,会计金融美本,行业分析师,爱经济学人


校对组:

Chloe,女,翻译硕士,经济学人忠实读者

Emily,女,食物链底端金融民工,经济学人粉丝


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Alan,男,金融工程硕士,经济学人粉丝

1,红色:COMEX黄金;蓝色:COMEX


从数据上看其实铜和黄金没有很明显的背离趋势,尤其是从09年初到16年初两者的走势十分正同步,16年和19年两个年份呈显著的分离趋势。

 

再来看看美元和黄金的走势。

2,红色:COMEX黄金,黄色:美元指数


黄金和美元的背离趋势比较明显,因为黄金是基于美元定价,所以美元的波动都会在黄金价格上得以体现。11年至16年黄金大幅上升下降,以及19年中旬至现在,两波黄金的走势是由于国际主要经济体低迷,而国际流动资本大幅投资黄金的结果。

3,红色:黄金;黄色:中国GDP增长率


相比之下,铜和金的相关性几乎没有,各自有其影响因素,前者主要是美元、国际资本避险情绪,后者是全球上游工业生产需求(供给侧产能的影响不是很大)。例如,从09年到12年,黄金的大幅升值来源于美元贬值(美元利率已经降到0%,外汇市场上贬无可贬)和国际资本的持续买入;而铜的影响因素主要来源于工业生产国,中国是世界上最大的工业生产国,因而铜的需求端变量主要看中国。09年到12年因为中国货币政策财政政策的齐放水,四万亿也推动了对铜价的抬升,但从12年中国经济增速换挡开始,铜价又开始趋势性下降。


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