经济学人商业 || 温和的财政退出机制

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491030&idx=1&sn=3340432f9214d5492f2878c4562cd017&chksm=fba04e71ccd7c767944ac77ca99a6d86c9cd70fdc863316a8eb0d70b5dac498296b7b3b94284#rd

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Tapering without the tantrum

温和的财政退出机制

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期Business版块

The world economy

世界经济


Tapering without the tantrum

温和的财政退出机制


A guide to when and how to pare back stimulus

刺激政策的退出时机及方式解读


As they first battled the pandemic with lockdowns earlier this year, governments in the rich world pumped cash into the economy almost indiscriminately. Output was collapsing and the speed and scale of support rightly trumped any worries about its cost, accuracy or side-effects. Now lockdowns are easing, there are tentative signs of economic recovery (even in places where covid-19 is still raging) and political debate has shifted to whether, when, and how far to pare back these dauntingly expensive emergency fiscal policies. America’s unemployment top-up scheme expires on July 31st, Britain’s furlough scheme at the end of October. What should governments do?


今年早些时候,在发达国家为遏制疫情而启动封锁政策之时,他们便几乎不加权衡地向经济注入了大量资金。当时,经济产出暴跌,而政府补助的效率和规模则恰逢其时地打消了人们对其成本、准确性和副作用的担忧。如今,封锁逐步解除,即便是在新冠肺炎仍在肆虐的地区,经济复苏的迹象也已初步显现,政治辩题也转向是否应当削减这些费用惊人的紧急财政政策,何时削减?削减多少?美国的失业补助计划将于731终止,英国的休假计划也将于10月底截止。各国政府究竟该如何做?


注:Pare back/down: to gradually reduce the size or amount逐步减小(体积或数量)


They should start by acknowledging that the largesse worked. Massive fiscal support has proved remarkably effective. Nothing could have prevented a sudden stop in activity as lockdowns were imposed. But generous top-ups to unemployment benefits and direct cheques from Uncle Sam meant that in April household incomes in America were 12% above their level a year earlier, even as joblessness reached its highest level since the Depression. Remarkably, the poverty rate has fallen since the start of this year. In Britain and the euro area, where governments have channelled stimulus through furlough schemes, the share of people in unemployment is no higher than in January.


政府首先应当承认,大规模财政支持是有效的。事实证明,它的确成效显著。随着各地实行封锁政策,各项活动被迫戛然而止。不过,美国政府大规模发放失业救济金及现金支票,因此,即使失业率创大萧条后新高,四月份美国人的家庭收入仍比去年同期高出12%万幸的是,贫困率从今年年初起就开始下降。在英国及欧元区,政府通过休假计划刺激经济,其失业率较一月份相比并未上升。


注:Largess: the act or quality of being generous with money慷慨解囊;施舍;赠款


However, the recovery is fragile. Not only is the virus still spreading rapidly in much of America’s south and west; localised outbreaks are also happening in countries where caseloads have fallen. And even without full lockdowns, rising infection rates will weaken the recovery. The latest real-time mobility data from Australia and America suggest that supposedly gung-ho consumers get spooked fast when infection rates spike .


然而,这种复苏是脆弱的。疫情不仅仍在美国南部和西部的大部分地区迅速蔓延,就连病例数下降的国家也出现了局部爆发。即便没有全面封锁,不断上升的感染率也会削弱复苏趋势。澳大利亚和美国的实时流动性数据表明,感染率飙升时,本来狂热的消费者也会突然恐慌。


注:Gung-ho: too enthusiastic about sth, without thinking seriously about it, especially about fighting and war偏激的,狂热的,莽撞的


Why not just continue the stimulus? One reason is the staggering cost. Rich-country governments have collectively launched stimulus programmes worth 10% of gdp, with one-third of that either subsidising work or compensating people who lose it. Before the year is out, government deficits in these countries will easily be in double digits.


将刺激计划进行到底又有何不可呢?首先,成本太高。富裕国家政府推出的刺激计划合计占其GDP10%,其中三分之一要么用于补贴在职员工,要么用于失业救济。长此以往,不到年底,这些政府的赤字率将飙升至10%以上。


 

It also makes no sense to freeze the economy for too long. All the signs are that life in the 2020s will be different from life in 2019—think of the surge in e-commerce and remote working; or the expectation of a long-term dampening of demand for air travel; or the reality that customers in pubs may no longer be allowed to elbow their way through crowds to order pints. Workers will have to leave their old jobs, and find new ones. In Europe a fifth of furloughed workers have jobs in industries that seem likely to shrink over time, such as hospitality and leisure.


一直给经济按暂停键也不合理。种种迹象都表明,接下来10年的日子将和2019大不相同——电商的欣欣向荣和远程工作的普及可见一斑;预计航空业将长期面临需求不振的情况;可能再也见不到酒吧人头攒动的景象了。大量员工将被迫离职找新工作。欧洲五分之一被放无薪假的员工都在看起来日渐式微的行业工作,比如酒店业和休闲业。


As governments grapple with this, lots of bad ideas are creeping in. In June the French government said it would extend its furlough scheme to two years, in return for reductions in working hours. France also makes extra allowances for the tourism trade, even though Parisian guides and Club Med windsurfing instructors may face a permanent drop in demand. Meanwhile on July 8th Britain’s chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said he would cut value-added taxes for hospitality and leisure firms and introduce a scheme that cuts up to £10 ($12.60) off restaurant bills on Mondays to Wednesdays (soft drinks are included, but not the hard stuff). Some economists have called for wage subsidies for the worst-hit industries.


各国政府纷纷寻求出路,在这一过程中,涌现了不少馊主意。今年6月,法国政府表示将把就业支持计划延长两年,并相应减少工作时长。法国还为旅游业提供额外津贴,尽管今后人们对巴黎导游和地中海俱乐部帆板教练的旺盛需求将一去不复返。与此同时,英国财长苏纳克表示,他将削减酒店和休闲行业的增值税,并引入一项餐饮折扣计划——周一到周三去餐厅消费,最高可免单10英镑(12.60美元)(软饮在内,酒精除外)。还有一些经济学家呼吁为在疫情中受打击最重的行业提供工资补贴。


Instead of giveaways and gimmicks, the right way to taper depends on the type of support already in place. America has funnelled cash to people through unemployment insurance, extending the duration of benefits, and topping up their amount by $600 a week. Letting the extension lapse when unemployment still exceeds 10% would be cruel, yet because the support is so generous, three-quarters of claimants are making more from benefits than they did from work. The solution, as a group of former White House advisers has proposed, is to taper benefit payments as unemployment falls. Linking the generosity of payments to states’ unemployment rates would steer stimulus to worst-hit areas—including those that experience fresh bouts of covid-19. In Europe the risk is that employers and workers are frozen in an unproductive relationship for too long. The best approach is to taper furlough payments which, for example, cover more than four-fifths of wages in France. They would then converge towards unemployment insurance, which does not shackle the claimant to an employer. That is how Germany’s Kurzarbeit scheme operates in normal times.


要达成财政退出机制,关键取决于现有的补助形式,而不是送消费者附赠品这样的花招。美国通过失业救济金给人们现金补助:延长失业救济金的期限,并每周增加600美金额度。在失业率超过10%的情况下,缩短补助金期限的做法肯定是不人道的,但补助似乎过于慷慨,以至于四分之三的补助金申领人拿到的补助比工资都多。白宫的官员们曾提出解决方案,即随着失业率的降低而减少补助的输出。失业率高的情况下,政府如此慷慨,这让那些受打击最重的行业受益——包括那些正经历新一轮疫情的行业。在欧洲,令人头疼的情况是雇主和员工们长期绑定在没有生产效率的关系之中。解决这个问题最好的方法就是减少过高的休假补助,比如在法国,休假补助了总薪资的五分之四。这样一来,雇员们会倾向于申领失业保险,而失业保险不会将雇员和雇主捆绑在一起。这就是德国的缩短工时( Kurzarbei)方案的运作原理。


There will be repeated flare-ups of the virus, and it is hard to predict how much that will scare consumers. Hence, even as governments trim stimulus, they must stand prepared to crank up support again. Early on, their aim was simply to throw cash at the economy. Now it is to use finite resources to help workers and firms through the pandemic and adjust to a brave new world.


未来疫情将有重复、再发的可能,很难预料消费者对疫情的恐惧会延迟多久。因此,政府减少经济刺激措施时,要做好随时增加补助的准备。疫情早期,政府补贴的目的只是想让经济回稳。现在,政府的任务是用有限的资源来帮助员工和公司渡过疫情难关,并帮助他们适应一个崭新的世界。


注:A brave new world: a situation or society that changes in a way that is eant to improve people’s lives but is often a source of extra problems美好的新世界(本欲改善人们的生活,实则带来预料不到的问题)


翻译组:

Miranda,女,翻译在读,爱哭又爱笑的00
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Rex,男,口译硕士,集书狂魔,经学钢粉

Sylvia,女,爱健身的小翻译,经济学人粉儿


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Vincent 男,狱警,电子与法学双硕,爱好诗歌与哲学

在特殊时期进行财政刺激,待形势稍有缓和后再相机减少之并耐心等待和调整。直觉理应如此,解决问题的方法是消灭它,问题不成为问题,就解决了。只是,过程未必能如直觉般优雅和简单。如何解决问题,视乎你怎样选择,是这样吗?这样说的基础是人有自由选择的意志与能力。但如果人根本没有自由选择呢?如果无可选择。就像人可以选择如何死,人不可以选择不死,这是不是选择呢?生存,到来,开启,知觉,等等,人有选择吗?而种种没有选择之物,成为人的偶像,成为人虚幻的希望。


众生之多数如我等处世难免徒务外观,如村媪涂抹脂粉以饰衰容。当然这仍可能是好的,比如哪怕为了貌似君子而为人当善。政治(人生)成功的三宝无非是:通盘分析后的长期战略观;认真分析暧昧不清而且相抵触的纷杂外力,并引入一致的目标;最大可能弥合现实与理想之间的差距。只是,世界是一种既自行开启又自行克制,既显又隐的发生,而思想又必得超出日常经验的范围而进入意义和根据的层面。放下一切固有的先入之见,在殚精竭虑以求一解之前。是不是我们总以为我们有选择,后来想来,却从来没有选择?


离诸妄执之艰难,回返现实中来。好处是,问题历来是智识的因由,与反复凭经验解决老问题相比,新问题的出现与求解都困难的多,也珍贵的多。人无时不在摸着石头过河,并时时刻刻,与所执告别。


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