经济学人商业 || “别无选择”的困境

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491344&idx=1&sn=fba6814f35dfc1a2299f025568c2a094&chksm=fba04cb7ccd7c5a19cbb303deac440f6ec6914dc0d944b287f91d0a45bf92f47625b81dff18a#rd

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感谢思维导图作者

Hikali,女,准爱岛异术家,用力生活


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The trouble with TINA

别无选择的困境

英文部分选自经济学人20200808期Business版块

The trouble with TINA

别无选择的困境


注:

TINA“There is no alternative”的缩写,文章中会有提及。


America’s stockmarkets are flying high. Its companies still aren’t

美国股市一路飙升,但美国公司却停滞不前


The latest earnings season in America Inc is the weirdest in living memory

美国公司的最新收益季诡异性当属历史之最


Bob chapek, Disney’s boss, sounded a cheerful note as he announced the entertainment giant’s quarterly results on August 4th. Its newish streaming service, Disney+, has acquired over 60m subscribers in less than a year, one-tenth the time it took Netflix to amass such an audience. “Mulan”, an upcoming blockbuster, will be released on Disney+ in September. “Despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, we have continued to build on the incredible success of Disney+ as we grow,” Mr Chapek intoned. The company’s share price jumped by 5%.


84日,迪士尼老板鲍勃·查佩克在公布娱乐巨头(这里指迪士尼)季度收益时,语气轻松愉快。迪士尼旗下新款流媒体服务(迪士尼+)不到一年就已揽获6千多万用户,而网飞却花费了十倍时间达到同样的用户量。大片《花木兰》将于9月在迪士尼+上映。查佩克郑重其事地说:尽管疫情带来的挑战不断,但随着我们的发展,迪士尼+已经大获成功。迪士尼的股价上涨了5%


If you tuned out the first part of Mr Chapek’s statement—and six months’ worth of covid-19 news—you might conclude that Disney just had a bumper quarter. In fact, as its theme parks shut down, cinemas emptied and battered advertisers stinted on commercials on its television networks, the company lost $4.7bn. The reason for the market chirpiness is that things could have been far worse.


如果对查佩克的前半部分讲话以及长达6个月的新冠疫情新闻充耳不闻,你也许会断定迪士尼上季度收益颇丰。但实际上,由于迪士尼主题公园关闭、电影院空无一人以及连遭重创的广告商削减了在电视网络上的自家业务,迪士尼损失47亿美元。令市场振奋的原因则是情况本可能更为糟糕。


注:

Tune out: you stop listening or paying attention to what is being said.


Disney’s experience sums up that of America Inc more broadly. Investors have been casting about for any signs of a rebound from the pandemic-induced recession. Real gdp shrank at an annualised rate of nearly 33% in the second quarter. And yet, with interest rates—and thus returns on safe assets like Treasury bonds—close to zero, money has poured into equities. American share prices have risen by more than 40% from their trough in March. The s&p 500 index of big firms is near an all-time high; the tech-heavy Nasdaq market reached it on August 4th. The feeling among investors that “there is no alternative” to stocks is so pervasive that they have dusted off an old acronym: tina.


迪士尼的经历很大程度地概括了美国公司的现状。投资者一直在想方设法地搜寻经济(从疫情导致的经济衰退中)回暖的信号。二季度,GDP年率缩减了近33%。但利率和诸如长期国库债券等安全资产利率近乎为零,投资者便将钱转投股市。,美国股价比3月低谷期上涨超过了40%。标普500指数几乎处于空前高位,科技企业为主的纳斯达克市场84日达到峰值。除了股票,别无选择这一观念在投资者间弥漫,他们重拾了一个年代久远的缩写词:TINA(别无选择)。


注:

1. Cast about for somethingto search for or seek something by looking randomly or in many places.

2. Dust off:重温、复习


4. In one way, the latest quarterly results justify a degree of optimism. Three months ago the situation was so uncertain that many firms, not just in America, refused to offer their habitual guidance about future earnings—in some cases for the first time ever. Bereft of milestones, analysts slashed profit forecasts. Now it seems they may have erred on the side of gloom. Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, a bank, calculates that for those firms which have already reported their results for the most recent quarter—a group representing 84% of the s&p 500’s market capitalisation—earnings have beaten hyper-bearish estimates by a total of 24%.


某种意义上说,最新的季度业绩证实了一定的乐观情绪是有道理的。三个月前,形势充满不确定性,致使许多公司(不止美国公司)拒绝按惯例提供未来的收益指导某些情况下而言这是破天荒的头一遭。没有了这些指导,分析师大幅下调了利润预期。现在看来,他们可能误判了形势。瑞士信贷银行的乔纳森戈卢布计算得出,那些已经公布了最近季度业绩的公司(占标准普尔500指数市值84%的群体),它们的收益总计比过度看跌的预期高了24%


Bulls see other hopeful signs. After a plunge earlier this year, capital spending grew at its fastest monthly pace since Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, began tracking it in 2004. New orders for factory goods rose by 6.2% in June. JPMorgan Chase, a bank, believes that a global “synchronised cyclical recovery from the covid-19 crash has started”, with manufacturing leading the way. “Recovery is happening,” echoes Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley, pointing to promising advances in treatments and vaccines for covid-19.


多头看到了其他的积极信号。经历了今年初暴跌之后,月度资本支出增长迅速,增速超过了投资银行摩根斯坦利(Morgan Stanley)2004年跟踪以来的最大增幅。6月份,工厂产品的新订单增长了6.2%。摩根大通认为,以制造业为首的全球同步周期性经济已经从新冠疫情危机中开始复苏复苏正在发生,摩根士丹利的迈克尔威尔逊(Michael Wilson)回应道。他指出,covid-19的治疗和疫苗取得了积极的进展,前景一片光明。


Hang on a minute. The green shoots offer hope and earnings may have beaten expectations. But, as David Kostin of Goldman Sachs, another bank, notes, the bar was very low. By his reckoning, in a typical quarter about 5% of firms produce earnings per share above forecasts. That this quarter’s figure may be closer to 25% is merely “kabuki theatre” of expectation management, he says. If the bottom fell out of the economy in the second quarter, as official statistics imply, then the private sector must be dragging it down.


桥豆麻袋! 经济复苏的迹象带来了希望,而且收益可能超预期。但是,正如高盛银行大卫·科斯汀所指出的那样,(这次复苏的)门槛会非常低。根据他的估算,一个平常的季度,约有5%的公司的每股收益(EPS)高于预期。他说,这个季度的数字可能接近25%,这只是期望管理的歌舞伎剧院。如果像官方统计数据暗示的那样,经济在第二季度跌穿底部,那么一定是私营经济拖了后腿。


注:
The phrases Kabuki theater, kabuki dance, or kabuki play are sometimes used in political discourse to describe an event characterized more by showmanship than by content.

The bottom fall out of the economy:

https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/100939/what-does-the-bottom-fell-out-of-the-economy-mean


Quarterly sales fell by an average of 10%, year on year, at s&p 500 companies which reported by the end of July. Some industries suffered a bigger hit. Revenues plunged by half at energy firms, a third for producers of durable goods and other non-staples, and by nearly as much at industrial firms (see chart 1). Overall, earnings per share contracted faster at American firms, by a third year on year, than those at historically less profitable European ones, whose profits fell by less than a quarter.


据报道,截至7月底,标普500公司的季度销售额同比平均下降了10%。一些行业遭受的冲击更加惨重。能源公司的收入腰斩,耐用品和其他副产品生产商的收入下降了1/3,而工业公司的收入降幅也相差无几(见图1)。总体而言,美国公司的每股收益(EPS)同比缩水了1/3,损失大于传统意义上获利能力较弱的欧洲公司——其利润下降了不到1/4


The crunch is worse at smaller firms. Mr Kostin calculates that, as of August 3rd, quarterly earnings for s&p 500 companies were down by about 35% year on year. For those in the Russell 2000 index of smaller firms, they had nearly evaporated entirely.


小型企业情况更加艰难。科斯汀先生估算,截至83日,标准普尔500公司的季度收益同比下降约35%,而以中小型企业为主的罗素2000指数公司市值几乎全部蒸发掉了。


The collective headline numbers for big companies are also flattered by the success of America’s technology giants (see chart 2). Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet are thriving, by making life possible for remote workers, online shoppers and anyone who seeks solace online. The quintet, which together represent 22% of the s&p 500’s market value, up from 16% a year ago, has generated stockmarket returns of 35% so far this year, against -5% for the other 495 firms in the index.


美国科技巨头的成功拉高了大公司的整体表现(见图2)。通过远程办公、在线购物和方便的在线娱乐,脸书、苹果、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet(谷歌母公司)蓬勃发展。该五巨头占标准普尔500市值的22%,高于1年前的16%,并且五巨头今年迄今为止已产生了35%的股市收益,而该指数中其他495家公司的收益率为-5%。


This dominance has boosted the market—and investor confidence. But it poses a risk for the unwary. Mr Golub says that unlike the flaky internet firms that collapsed when the dotcom bubble burst two decades ago, the five tech titans have solid business models, little debt and strong revenue growth. But should a speedy recovery materialise, money could flow out of tech and into currently unloved sectors such as heavy industry.


科技巨头的显著表现提振了市场和投资者的信心,但也给无风险意识的人带来了风险。戈卢布先生说,与20年前互联网泡沫破灭时倒闭的脆弱互联网公司不同,这五家科技巨头商业模式成熟、债务低和收入增长强劲。但如果经济迅速复苏,资金可能会流出科技行业,流入重工业等目前不受欢迎的行业。


注:

Dotcom bubble 互联网泡沫


Another underappreciated threat to share prices comes from government. Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup, a bank, points out that the “womb to tomb” safety net in Europe provides more generous and longer-lived relief in a downturn than America’s more threadbare benefits. Congress seems poised to reduce stimulus spending that has supported firms keeping furloughed workers on their payrolls and paid unusually plush unemployment benefits, which recipients could spend not just on rent and bills but also on other, less vital things. Mr Levkovich calculates that taxpayers financed between $50bn and $75bn of firms’ labour costs associated with furloughed workers. If such support is withdrawn in the second half of the year, he warns, “we must worry that the upside earnings surprises are not repeatable.”


对股价的另一个被低估的威胁来自政府。花旗银行的托拜厄斯莱夫科维奇指出在经济低迷期,相比美国无力的救助计划,欧洲从摇篮到坟墓的社会保障体系提供了更加慷慨和长久的救济。美国国会似乎准备减少用于帮助企业支付休假员工薪资及难得的优厚失业救济金的刺激支出。受助人不仅可以用救济金支付房租和账单,还可以花在其他不那么重要的事情上。莱夫科维奇估计纳税人资助了500亿至750亿美金用于休假或停职员工相关的企业劳动成本上。他警告到,如果今年下半年取消该刺激支出,我们必须意识到(股票市场)收益上的惊喜不会重现。


注:

1. threadbare 1. (衣物)磨破的threadbare carpet 2.(论点、借口、主意)陈腐、乏味的threadbare clichés

2. furloughed adj. 停止的/被休假的


For the time being the market thinks they are. ceos themselves are partly responsible for this, by tirelessly spinning investors a positive yarn. s&p 500 firms which forecast higher future earnings now outnumber those offering lower or no guidance by two to one (see chart 3). In the previous quarter the coy and pessimistic were 15 times as numerous as the sunny.


眼下,市场的确是乐观的。首席执行官可能要负上一部分责任,因为他们不知疲惫地向投资者抛出正面消息。标普500指数公司中,预计未来收益会更高的公司与那些预计收益更低或不提供指导的多了一倍(见表3)。在上个季度,不愿提供信息和悲观的公司是乐观公司的15倍。


注:

1. spin (sb) a yarn, tale, etc.杜撰故事,编造故事(以让人信以为真)try to make sb believe a story that is not true

2. outnumberIn this profession, women outnumber men by two to one. 在这个行业,女性人数是男性的两倍。

3. Coy  1.(尤指对爱情或性爱)羞羞答答的,假装害羞无知的,故作忸怩的 a coy smile 羞答答的微笑 2. 愿提供信息的;不肯作答的;含糊其辞的 She was a little coy about how much her dress cost.


Yet when the Conference Board, a research group, recently surveyed hundreds of American bosses anonymously, it encountered much more pessimism about the timing and robustness of economic recovery than among ceos in Europe and Asia. Whereas 40% of chief executives in China see sales returning to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020, only 12% of American bosses do. The Conference Board concludes that a return to pre-coronavirus revenues is “at least a year or more down the road” and that “risk and volatility will remain high for the foreseeable future.” Sooner or later investors seduced by ceos’ public sweet talk—and by tina—will come to their senses. Won’t they?


然而,研究机构世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)最近对数百名美国企业老总进行了匿名调查,发现与欧洲和亚洲的首席执行官相比,他们对经济复苏的时机和力度更为悲观。在中国,40%的首席执行官预计到2020年底销售将恢复到疫情前的水平,而在美国,只有12%持此观点。世界大型企业联合会总结认为,恢复疫情前的收入至少需要今后一年或更长的时间,而且在可预见的未来,风险和波动性仍将维持高位。投资者迟早会从首席执行官们花言巧语的公开讲话和别无选择的诱惑中清醒过来,不是吗?


注:

come to one's sense 清醒过来;恢复理性;醒悟


翻译组:

Hannah,女,教书匠,经济学人粉丝

Megan, 女,外企民工,好想一身都是月

Monica,女,MTIer,死不悔改的理想主义者

Zoey,女,咨询行业,爱挠头的英文码字工

校对组:

Elle, 女,靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆
VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者

Angela, 女,Northwestern本科在读,double major 数学哲学


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Forest,女,自由职业,爱树的人

预期对于宏观经济的重要性不言而喻。心理因素本身不是生产行为,但是影响着对生产而言至关重要的投资行为。

文章挺长,含义还是清晰的。众所周知的是疫情使美国GDP(生产)狂跌,照说应该带来股市的整体负面表现,可股市却逆势升扬,但仔细瞅瞅发现这其实是“以偏概全”,高科技股在疫情期间用户数量和利润的奇异升幅覆盖了那些当前不受欢迎的线下企业、中小企业的低迷和萧索。

这种失速的增长看似诡异,想想也是合情合理。

高科技企业是大家当下必须依赖的工作、生活和消费服务获取平台,增长如此之高恰恰是大家对疫情影响之大早先预期不到位的表现;而这种增长力度也可能隐藏着日后的风险,如果线下其他产业所受不利影响足够大且长远,高科技企业也终究难逃经济整体下滑之劫?

科技企业也在积极参与对消费者的预期管理,迪士尼+一年之短便获网飞十年之功,没有疫情助力,何以能达?不过这种急速增长能否长期维系?迪士尼果真已稳获如此之大的成功?迪士尼希望自己和大家都能相信确实已然如此。

对普通投资者来说,疫情的影响早已被预期到,所以股市早就消化了这些信息,而只有高科技股是人们在此时嫁接自己乐观情绪的合理安全之所在。

问题是,高科技股之外的其他行业股票表现仍然欠佳,这是否意味着人们并未真正地对市场恢复信心,或者就现时期本质而言,疫情的影响还要延绵多久远人们仍然毫无笃信。


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