原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490991&idx=1&sn=eba8d5005f96a537d71bd0ebd4a63a89&chksm=fba04e08ccd7c71ec9735d1102013daa2b9a76caf4d03bd39c64ba03fd22a34bcc5d1431bdfd#rd
1
导读
感谢思维导图作者
Zihan,男,对冲基金,大数据工程师
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Chinese banking
中国银行业
英文部分选自经济学人20200704期Finance版块
Chinese banking
中国银行业
China may let banks launch brokerages to fend off foreign marauders
中国或将允许商业银行获取券商牌照以抗衡外资券商
China put its first domestically built aircraft-carrier into service last December, the culmination of three decades of work. The government hopes for a faster return on efforts to create what it calls an “aircraft-carrier-class securities firm”—ie, an investment bank powerful enough to prevail amid intensifying competition in the country’s capital markets. It is poised to draft its biggest financial force into battle, by allowing giant state-owned commercial banks to enter investment banking.
去年12月,中国第一艘国产航母“山东舰”开始服役,这是三十载工作结晶的巅峰。同样的,政府希望通过打造所谓的“航母级头部券商”(即在中国资本市场竞争加剧的情况下,一家实力雄厚到仍能所向披靡的投资银行)以更快地获得回报。中国正蓄势待发欲让大型国有商业银行进入投行业务,聚集其最强金融力量投入战斗。
注:
1.culmination n.顶点,高潮;
2.Be poised to:信誓旦旦;随时准备着做;
延伸阅读:中国首艘国产航母“山东舰”服役,挑战美国海上地位
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20191218/china-aircraft-carrier/
证监会:积极推动打造航母级头部证券公司
http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2019-11/30/c_1125291539.htm
China has long had its own version of America’s Glass-Steagall separations, which until 1999 barred retail banks from investment banking. China’s commercial banks can neither underwrite stocks nor offer brokerage services, which are left to securities firms—a division that officials believe makes the financial system safer. But now they may grant securities licences to two commercial banks in a trial, as first reported by Caixin, a business publication.
长期以来,中国一直有自己的《格拉斯—斯蒂格尔法案》版本,该法案起源于美国,在1999年以前美国禁止商业银行参与投行业务。同样的,中国的商业银行此前既不能承销股票,也不能提供经纪服务,因而这些服务空间都留给了证券公司。政府认为这可使金融体系更安全。但是,商业出版物《财新周刊》最先报道了,中国可能选出2家商业银行授予券商牌照进行试点。
注:
1.《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》(Glass-Steagall Act)
格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案(Glass-Steagall Act),是一部对美国银行系统进行改革的法律,描述了1933年银行法分离商业银行和投资银行业务的四个规定,美国联邦存款保险公司是依此法成立。这部法律的目的在于对投机采取一些控制措施。禁止银行控股公司拥有其它金融公司的规定被1999年11月12日生效的金融服务法现代化法案取消。1999年被取消的规定,实际上取消了承担风险的投资银行与接受存储的商业银行的隔离,使得投资银行家可以成为商业银行的上司,因此造成利益冲突。
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E6%A0%BC%E6%8B%89%E6%96%AF-%E6%96%AF%E8%92%82%E6%A0%BC%E5%B0%94%E6%B3%95%E6%A1%88
The immediate prompt is foreign competition. After years of dragging its feet, China scrapped foreign-ownership limits in its securities sector last year. Big Western players—such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UBS—have either gained control of existing joint ventures or launched wholly-owned operations. Foreign firms have struggled to make a dent in commercial banking in China, held back by their limited branch networks. In investment banking, though, they may be more formidable, thanks to their technical knowhow.
直接刺激来源于外资竞争。多年来一拖再拖,中国于去年取消了证券领域的外资持股限制。西方巨头,如花旗集团、摩根士丹利和瑞银集团,要么取得了现有合资公司的控股权,要么成立了全资子公司。囿于有限的分支网,外资银行在中国的商业银行业务方面一直举步维艰。但是他们在投资银行业务方面的专业技术更有优势更有主动权。
注:
1.drag one's feet v. postpone doing what one should be doing 拖拉;拖着脚走;不合作
eg. The government was dragging its feet, and this was threatening moves toward peace.
政府一拖再拖,这是有碍和平的行径。
2.scrap 及物动词 If you scrap something, you get rid of it or cancel it. 取消; 放弃
eg. President Hussein called on all countries in the Middle East to scrap nuclear or chemical weapons.
侯赛因总统呼吁中东各国放弃核武器或化学武器。
3.Citigroup 花旗集团,是美国第一家集商业银行、投资银行、保险、共同基金、证券交易等诸多金融服务业务于一身的金融集团。
4.UBS 瑞银 abbr. 瑞士联合银行(United Bank of Switzerland)
5.make a dent in v. 削弱;取得有效进展
eg. The economy needs to grow by at least 5% per year to make a dent in high unemployment and poverty levels.
要降低较高的失业率和贫困率,该国的年增长率至少要达到5%。
Even without the foreign threat, China has been eager to whip its brokers into shape. Officials want capital markets to lessen the burden on banks, which last year provided two-thirds of all new credit. The ten biggest Chinese banks have roughly 30 times more assets than the ten biggest securities firms, and are also far more profitable (see chart). The securities industry’s main problem is extreme fragmentation; 131 registered firms providing similar services fight for clients by slashing fees. Some even underwrite bonds for nothing.
即便没有来自外资的威胁,中国也一直急于鞭策国内券商。政府希望资本市场可以减轻银行的负担,银行占去年新增信贷的三分之二。中国十大银行的资产总额大概是其十大证券公司的30多倍,并且盈利更为丰厚(见图表)。证券业的主要问题在于极度分散,有131家注册证券公司提供类似服务,不得不通过大幅削减佣金费用来争夺客户。一些公司甚至免费承销债券。
注:
1.whip sth into shape 训练,强使成形,严格管教
eg. Fortunately, you've got the organizational skills to whip them into shape.
幸运的是,你所掌握的有组织的技能能使它们初具雏形。
2.slash 及物动词 To slash something such as costs or jobs means to reduce them by a large amount. 大幅度削减
eg. Car makers could be forced to slash prices.
汽车制造商可能会被迫大幅度降价。
3.underwrite bonds 承销债券,是指投资银行接受客户的委托,按照客户的要求将债券销售到机构投资者和社会公众投资者手中,实现客户筹措资金的目的的行为或过程。对发行人来说就是债券发行,即发行人以借贷资金为目的,依照法律规定的程序向投资人要约发行代表一定债权和兑付条件的债券的法律行为。
Change is unlikely to be revolutionary at first. “It is not China’s way to suddenly implement a new policy and wipe out existing companies,” says Chen Jiahe of Novem Arcae Technologies, a wealth-management firm. Investors agree: the share prices of China’s largest brokers fell by about 5% on June 29th, when the news first broke, but have since recovered.
不太可能一开始就进行大刀阔斧的改革。财富管理公司九圜青泉科技(Arcae Technologies)陈嘉禾表示:“突然实施新政,扫清现有公司,并非中国一贯作风”。投资者们也表达了同样的情绪,6月29号消息一出,中国龙头券商股均下跌约5%,但此后一直在回升(已经暴涨)。
Still, the securities industry could look very different in time. The government wants to see consolidation. Granting banks brokerage licences may squeeze out the also-rans. Consider, for example, medium-term notes, a quasi-bond market in which commercial banks can already participate: of the top 20 underwriters by income, 17 are banks and just three are brokers.
不过,证券业的变革迟早会到来。政府希望看到行业整合。发放银行券商牌照,可能会将现有的落后者挤出市场。以中期票据为例,即商业银行已获许可的准债券市场。在收入排名前20位的承销商中,只有三家是券商。
注:
quasi:准,(构成形容词和名词)表示“类似的”,“准”,“半” is used to form adjectives and nouns that describe something as being in many ways like something else, without actually being that thing.
also-ran:落选者,失败者
A common criticism of universal banking is that it combines two irreconcilable cultures, with the boldness of investment bankers potentially swamping the prudence of commercial bankers. Yet China has shown that there are also dangers to separation. The stockmarket crashed in 2015 after the securities regulator failed to rein in a boom in margin financing by brokers, a risk that the bank regulator might have been better equipped to detect.
对全能银行的一种常见批评是,它兼有两种不可调和的文化,投行人的大胆可能吞噬商业银行家的谨慎。然而,中国已表明分业经营也存在危险。2015年,由于证券监管机构未能遏止券商杠杆融资交易的激增,股市崩盘,而银行监管机构本应做好更充分的准备,察觉这一风险。
注:
1. Universal banking: A system of banking where banks are allowed to provide a variety of services to their customers. In universal banking, banks are not limited to just loans, checking and savings accounts, and other similar activities, but are allowed to offer investment services as well. 全能银行(Universal Banking)源于德国,本是德国银行业的分类概念,但在现代金融里其含义已经超出了统计概念的范畴。全能银行是一种银行类型,它不仅经营银行业务,而且还经营证券、保险、金融衍生业务以及其他新兴金融业务,有的还能持有非金融企业的股权。
2. irreconcilable:If two things such as opinions or proposals are irreconcilable, they are so different from each other that it is not possible to believe or have both of them. 不可协调的
3. swamp:If you are swamped by things or people, you have more of them than you can deal with. 使疲于应对,使不堪承受
4. rein in:To rein in something means to control it. 控制
5. margin financing: 融资交易,也叫保证金融资交易,是指客户将账户内的证券质押给证券公司,以向证券公司借入更多的资金来买入股票的行为。
In any case, it is hard to imagine China’s lumbering banks becoming red-in-tooth-and-claw brokers. The biggest, such as icbc, already operate investment banks in Hong Kong, primarily offering plain-vanilla services to state-owned firms. More aggressive mid-tier lenders could outdo them in marketing shares and structuring deals. They are still huge by global standards: China Merchants Bank, for example, has a market capitalisation of $120bn, nearly twice that of Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street institution. In Chinese terms, it would count as a naval cruiser—one step down in size from an aircraft-carrier, but still a big step up from the ragtag flotilla in the country’s capital markets today.
无论如何,难以想象如果中国lumbering(你懂的)的银行变成野蛮霸道的券商。银行巨头(如工行)早已在香港开设投资银行,主要为国有企业提供标准化服务。更加激进的中间梯队银行有机会在营销市场份额和安排交易方面超过它们。以全球标准来衡量,这些中间银行仍然非常庞大。例如,招商银行的市值1200亿美元,是华尔街机构高盛的近两倍;按中国标准,在当今的资本市场上,它相当于海军巡洋舰——距航母级还差一步,但相比那些散乱的“小舰队”,它仍迈进了一大步。
注:
1. lumbering:笨拙的,行动迟缓的。
2. red in tooth and claw:残酷无情、血淋淋、决不宽容。
3. plain-vanilla:普通的,最简单的,标准化的。vanilla在西班牙语里是用于給食物调味的)香子蘭精,香草精,在西班牙,冰淇淋的原味就是香草味。因此,用vanilla来形容金融产品和服务的时候,就是指最普通的,标准化产品。例如,Vanilla Option,香草期权,就是一笔最普通的期权业务,或者说标准的期权合约。
4. naval cruiser:海军巡洋舰
5. aircraft-carrier:航空母舰
6. ragtag:杂乱的,乌合之众
7. flotilla:小型船队,小舰队
翻译组:
Martina,女,爱电影爱生活,爱金融经济
Jerry,男,金融专业研究生,经济学人铁粉
Vivifang,女,外币债券交易员,经济学人粉丝
Summer,女,QE在职,梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯
校对组:
Chloe,女,翻译硕士,经济学人忠实读者
Emily,女,食物链底端金融民工,经济学人粉丝
3
观点|评论|思考
本次感想
Alan,男,金融工程硕士,经济学人粉丝
上周开始A股逐渐进入向上通道,周五券商股全线大涨停,这周一券商股再次涨停连带整个A股涨幅5.27%,周三券商再度大涨。在四个交易日里,券商股集中上涨了30%。
我觉得其实券商股涨得很没有道理。有关券商的消息是关于证监会拟重提向商业银行放开券商拍照,或将从几大商业银行中选取至少两家试点设立券商。混业经营的猜想再次浮出水面。
银行和券商的体量不在一个量级上,无论从资产规模,还是净利润等指标来看。另外债券市场基本也是银行一家独大,主要的债券交易市场还是银行间市场,其中主要的交易者也基本是银行。可以想见,一旦银行获准进券商,将会对证券业产生很大的冲击,业内会有将其比作“大象踩蚂蚁”的说法。从后见之明的角度来看,券商股作为每一次牛市的领头羊都会率先领涨,因为在中国牛市开启散户跑步进场,经纪业务收入可以大幅提升。而且从银行获准进入保险、信托、基金后的经营能力来看,银行系还是始终无法摆脱靠借贷来做业务的思维方式。
从美国的经验来看,大萧条之后国外为了稳定金融业出台了《格拉斯斯蒂格尔法案》,禁止商业银行和证券机构跨越彼此从事的业务领域,也正是这项法案的出台让当时富可敌国的J.P.摩根不得不把投行业务部门剥离出银行体系,这个投行部门后来成为了Morgan Stanley;一直到1999年,克林顿政府开启金融自由化,《金融现代化服务》通过,美国分业经营结束;2008年金融危机后,史上最严的《多德-弗兰克法案》,即著名的沃克尔规则出台,限制大中型银行从事自营交易、投资对冲和私募基金,剥离衍生品交易。
从美国的经验来看,无论你给它一个什么名字都好:混业经营,金融自由化,金融服务现代化,往往危机容易在其中滋生。原因在于一家金融机构一旦可以同时从事银行存贷款业务和证券投行业务后会有大量利益冲突,且往往难以监管。对于传统银行业务的监管方式一般是要求更高资本金率、准备金率,而证券业务则更加强调信息披露、勤勉尽责受托人业务,监管手段完全不同。同时,2008年的美国金融危机揭示了当时的金融机构存在严重的利益冲突,可能存款人甲刚刚存了1亿的存单,隔壁的自营业务部门销售看到了就赶紧把你拉去另一个楼层向你推销现在的房地产ABS的收益率有多么多么高,经过精细的不同资产池的组合,我们的quant显著降低了风险但是收益率还是可以维持不变,还告诉你美国的房地产70年来从来没有跌过。然后雷曼兄弟倒了。
再转向中国金融行业。其实当前中国的金融行业基本上实现了混业经营,几年来多家中资银行相继在香港设立控股子公司,银行系的“X银国际”相继成立,各大行的曲线混业打法盛行。此外还有中国银行和国开行早年以国务院特批的方式控股券商,中银国际证券和国开证券从净资产规模来看分属38、30,和头部券商还有差距。且受制于监管规则,这两家银行系券商和母行也还是分业经营,内部协同没有打通。
混业经营的另一个隐患是会加剧监管套利。在过去分业经营的30年里,监管套利一直是让监管机构头疼又始终无法彻底解决的老大难问题,银行体系始终没有办法将风控体系、收益率曲线落地,导致了信贷投放严重向国有企业倾斜,因为市场上另一半的民企存在信贷需求,于是证券时常和信托公司一起通道化,变成了影子银行,而保险更像银行和风投。在分业经营下,监管套利如此顽强不息春风吹又生,混业经营恐怕蕴藏着巨大的金融隐患。
以上的推演都是从长期来看的,期限可能在10年甚至20年之后,混业经营导致银行内部的资产管理投资/自营投资出现重大风险事件后,银行的主导性地位将会使整个金融市场受到传染。但是目前来看,随着A股的投机情绪高涨和宏观货币条件持续宽松,投资者可以尽情享受股票资产的持续增值。
4
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