原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491834&idx=1&sn=305f0814ee0c45f7f261da5b0a0e3a96&chksm=fba3b35dccd43a4bf8c0eb75cf3d3442dd0d4dc6c5b9afa4930a5ef3b9a8fa1a6728d28db652#rd
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导读
感谢思维导图作者
Tracy,女,设计爱好者,推理烧脑粉
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Quantum computing
量子计算
英文部分选自经济学人20200925期Leaders版块
Quantum computing
量子计算
From cloisters to the cloud
初见端倪
Investors are pouring money into quantum computing. Its development offers lessons about innovation
投资者正在向量子计算领域投入大量资金。它的发展为创新提供了经验
It is hard to choose one moment as marking the birth of a technology. But by one common reckoning, quantum computing will be 40 next year. In 1981 Richard Feynman, an American physicist, spoke at a computing conference, observing that “Nature isn’t classical, dammit, and if you want to make a simulation of nature, you’d better make it quantum mechanical, and by golly it’s a wonderful problem, because it doesn’t look so easy.”
很难选择一个时刻作为一项技术诞生的标志。但人们普遍认为,量子计算到明年就40岁了。1981年,美国物理学家理查德·费曼(Richard Feynman)在一次计算机会议上发言,他说:“真见鬼,自然界并不像经典物理学描述的那样。要想模拟自然,最好用量子力学。天哪,这真是一个精彩的问题,因为一看就不容易。”
Entering middle age, quantum computing is at last becoming a commercial proposition. Until recently the consensus was that practical applications would have to wait for large, stable machines, probably at least a decade away. Not everyone agrees. Venture capital is beginning to flow into companies built around quantum computers, as investors make a bold—possibly foolhardy—bet that even the limited, error-prone, unstable machines that make up the state-of-the-art today may prove commercially useful.
步入中年,量子计算最终变成为一个商业命题。一直到最近人们还认为实际应用将不得不等待大型、稳定的机器设备,而这一等待可能至少需要十年。现如今,并非所有人都同意这一观点。风险资本开始流入围绕量子计算机而成立的公司,投资者做出了大胆(也或许是莽撞)的押注:即使当今最先进的技术是小型的、容易出错且不稳定的机器,也可能被证明具有商业价值。
If those bets pay off, it would be good news, and not just for investors. Quantum computers can perform some sorts of mathematics far faster than any classical machine. Building them could open up entirely new vistas. They may, for instance, revolutionise chemistry. Most reactions are too complex for existing computers to simulate exactly, blunting researchers’ precision. Quantum machines could cut through the mathematical tangle, with applications in materials science, drugmaking, batteries and more. Their facility with optimisation problems, which are likewise a struggle for non-quantum machines, could be a boon for logistics, finance and artificial intelligence.
如果那些押注获得了回报,将是一个好消息,而且不仅仅是对投资者而言。量子计算机进行某些数学运算的速度比任何传统计算机都要快得多。建造量子计算机可以开辟全新的前景。例如,它们可能会彻底改变化学。大多数化学反应过于复杂,现有的计算机无法进行精确模拟,这削弱了研究的精确度。量子计算机可以解决数学难题,在材料科学、制药、电池等领域得到应用。尽管量子计算机的设备存在优化问题(这对于非量子计算机来说也是一个亟待解决的问题),但这可能会给物流、金融和人工智能带来福音。
The field’s progress is interesting for another reason. Quantum computing offers a worked example of how complicated technologies develop in industrial societies. The chief lesson is to attend to every part of the process. The frenzy of innovation around classical computing, concentrated in Silicon Valley, has focused attention on the world of startups, venture capital and IPOs. But these are things that happen late in a technology’s development, when swift commercial returns are, if not certain, then at least plausible. As Mariana Mazzucato, an Italian-American economist, has argued, the biggest risks are taken earlier, when it is unclear whether a technology will work at all.
量子计算的发展引人瞩目,还有另外一层原因:复杂难懂的技术到底是如何在工业社会得以发展的,量子计算就是一个活生生的例子。关于这个问题,最重要的一条经验就是关注技术发展的每一个环节。传统计算机领域的“创新热”,主要汇聚于硅谷,集中在初创公司、风险投资和IPO上。但这些都出现在技术发展的后期,此时快速获得商业回报的可能性不说百分之一百,也至少是非常大的。意大利裔美国经济学家玛利亚娜·马祖卡托(Mariana Mazzucato)就曾表示,如果不明确一项技术能否发挥作用,那么早早地采取行动就是最大的风险。
The state can be one such risk-taker. The first step in building a quantum computer was to conduct plenty of abstruse mathematics on university blackboards. Collectively, governments, including those of America, Britain, China and Germany, have thrown billions of dollars at funding quantum research.
政府可以承担这样的风险。建造量子计算机的第一步,就是要在大学黑板上做大量高深的数学运算题。美国、英国、中国和德国等各国政府,已经共计投入数十亿美元,用于资助量子研究。
Other early work was done in the sorts of big, boring companies in which no self-respecting disrupter would be seen dead. The first useful quantum algorithm was discovered in 1994 at Bell Labs, which began life as the research division of America’s telephone monopoly. Another early pioneer was IBM, which also has a buttoned-up reputation—but whose researchers have, over the years, earned six Nobel prizes. Today Google and Microsoft are playing a big role in developing quantum technologies.
其它的早期工作,由千篇一律的大型企业完成,这些公司是那些自尊的创新者死都不愿意待的地方。首个有价值的量子算法被发现于1994年的贝尔实验室,这里最初是美国电话垄断公司(AT&T)的一个研究部门。IBM则是另外一个早期先驱,素来名声不显——但其研究人员这些年来已经获得了六座诺贝尔奖。如今,谷歌和微软在量子技术发展过程中,发挥着举足轻重的作用。
注:sb wouldn’t be seen/caught dead: used to say that you would not like to wear particular clothes, or to be in a particular situation.(表示不愿意穿戴某衣物或处于某种环境)死也不愿意。
She wouldn’t be seen dead in a hat. 她最讨厌戴帽子。
He wouldn’t be caught dead going to a club with his mother. 他死也不愿意跟母亲一起去俱乐部。
The trick for such super-early-stage investors is to know when to stick with a risky prospect and when to call it quits. Good venture capitalists are ruthless about culling underperforming bets and focusing on those that seem to be paying off. Their proximity to markets makes such judgments easier. But governments—which are, after all, spending public money—should strive for the same outlook. If the state is to back technologies that are too risky for other investors, then a high rate of failure is both inevitable and desirable.
超早期投资者的诀窍在于知道什么时候险中求胜,什么时候离手退场。优秀的风险投资人会果断放弃表现不佳的项目,把资源集中在有望成功的项目上。他们紧跟市场动向,方便判断抉择。政府,毕竟是用公家的钱投资,也该力求取得同样的结果。不过,如果政府支持那些对于其他投资者来说风险过高的技术项目,虽然无法避免高失败率,但这种做法仍是值得的。
There are other lessons, too. Quantum computing has come as far as it has on the backs of thousands of mathematicians, experimental physicists and engineers. That is a reminder of the limits of “great man” theories of innovation, exemplified by the cult of Steve Jobs, a founder of Apple. The popular image of innovation as a “pipeline”, with a stream of individual technologies proceeding smoothly from ideas to products, is likewise too neat. Progress in quantum computing depends on progress in dozens of other fields, from lasers to cryogenics.
此外,还有其他经验。量子计算是站在千万数学家、实验物理学家和工程师的肩膀上发展至今的。所以要注意技术创新中“伟人”论的局限性,这点从苹果创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯身上可见一斑。在大众的想象中,创新就像一根“管道”,沿着它,一项项的技术从概念顺利发展成为产品。这种想法同样太过简单。量子计算的进步离不开其他领域技术的发展,比如激光和低温学。
None of that is to deny the importance of the people who run the last few miles, taking nascent technologies and trying to spin out profitable businesses. But those who want to see more of that success should keep in mind that a great deal of less celebrated, less glamorous work must come first.
这也并不是说跑完最后几公里的那些人就不重要,他们看准新兴技术,维持企业盈利。但如果想了解成功背后的故事,就应该知道大量无名无闻的基础工作才是第一位的。
翻译组:
Trista,女,暴富不是梦想,是未来的现实
Mai,男,经济学博士,世界那么大,我想活得久一点
Phoenix ,女 , 人口买卖从业者(HR),不拘一格爱玩儿福娃
校对组:
Wesley,男,英语老师,经济学人铁粉
Hannah,女,英语教书匠,经济学人粉丝
Desmond,男,即将读研,悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者
Dossver,男,搞翻译,打游戏,看小说,练游泳,做个现充
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观点|评论|思考
感想一
Samantha,女,不吃米饭,邓伦未婚妻
大量默默无闻的基础工作不仅是出发点,更是目的地。量子计算可以应用到的行业囊括了金融、医疗、制造、资源,以及媒体。以媒体业中的广告设计为例,根据咨询业巨头埃森哲的分析,客户有不同的消费者偏好,每种偏好对应不同的系统,每个系统代表各自的产品属性——要选择哪种属性呈现在哪个消费者群体面前,眼下没有谁能比量子计算机更擅长做这个决定。
如果说上世纪初开始的第一代量子计算革命只是普及了概念,那现在正进行中的第二代革命对决策者们来说就是拼家底的时刻。1998年之前,欧洲多个国家已经开始展开研究工作,但因为方向各异,进度并不太理想。98年起,欧盟发起了未来和新兴技术(Future and Emerging Technologies)计划,为欧洲量子研究提供了约5.5亿欧元的资金。二十年之后,量子技术旗舰(Quantum Technologies Flagship)正式上马。德国先投了20亿欧元与IBM合作筹建两台量子计算机,明年将在斯图加特附近投入使用。
新闻需要结合辟谣贴食用。可以理解媒体喜欢搞标题,混淆那些普通人不太了解的概念。总之在量子计算这个话题上,还没有哪个国家有重大突破。去年谷歌宣称的“量子霸权”更像是个市场部的行为, 旨在推广品牌和制造里程碑,而非解决实际问题来取得颠覆性成果。默克尔在去年的达沃斯上也表达了量子计算还处于so far down the road阶段。在探寻新科技边界的这条路上,科学家们依然大有可为。
感想二
VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者
大概是前年,愚蠢的我由于受到某种莫可名状的影响,做了一件至今看来还是那么滑稽可笑的事:我在B站看了3期MIT的量子力学课程,居然开始着手看起了狄拉克的《量子力学原理》,但是大概硬着头皮看到第三天,就再也看不下去了,我猜我大概在人生剩下的日子里也只能了解一些科普类的读物了。
自己常常会去做一些旁人看起来是那么理所当然不会成功的事,一来我不信邪,二来么我每每都在高估自己的能力和魅力,读书的时候也时常觉得女神会对自己另眼相看,其实她只是把我当做工具人而已。自己也经常会去做一些出乎意料的事,看一些旁人见不得的书,大概是偶尔有几次成功的经历,于是心中便埋下了追逐奇迹的种子。
可能这就和“心里一定要有个梦想,万一实现了呢”一个道理,但我想大部分人也只是将此停留在口头或者茶余饭后的闲谈之中,毫无敬畏之心,也没有打算真正动手去做。倘若人类都是如此,大概发展也没如此迅速了,还是有一小部分的傻人,或者走投无路之辈,揣着一个目标,投入自己一辈子的光阴,概率学角度来看,总会有几个幸运儿,他们就是我们前进的火车头。
如果你打算做一个早出晚归,喂奶带娃的常人,那最好不要这么干,享受天伦之乐人生幸福还是一个比较安稳的选项,但如果你心无所牵,同时又肯吃苦有天赋,那或许可以试试,反正也没什么可以再失去的。总有人希望两者兼得,一边爱情亲情满满,一边成就突破遍地,我就是偶尔做做这样的梦,但是醒来后心中总是堵得慌,因为我知道自己没有这种天赋,没有这种背景,没有这种运气,大概率就是一个普通人了。
对于选择,不仅仅是人自己的选择,甚至是科学研究上的,大部分还是由别人推动的,人无法做自己的主人,虽然很不幸,但是这是真的。即便是位高权重之人,也总有与之匹敌的对手,画字行棋之间无往不是互相制约和博弈的结果,所以真正意义上能够行自己所欲者,寡也。
于是结论就是,该干嘛干嘛,别多想,除非你真的一无所有,那可以去搏一搏,单车变摩托。
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