一天一篇经济学人 2020Q3

来源：http://mp.weixin.qq.com

经济学人商业 || 可乐大战

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491875&idx=1&sn=035b79a079ab583c0eb7bd26437d80a8&chksm=fba3b284ccd43b92dafa6a16da677cf80ccbf89e58cd5ff37c7a01ef94e87f2bd1ff78dbe21b#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Megan, 女，外企民工，好想一身都是月

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Cola wars

可乐大战

英文部分选自经济学人20200925期Business版块

Cola wars

可乐大战

Fire-starter

纵火者

Donald Kendall added marketing sparkle to the soft-drinks industry

唐纳德·肯德尔（Donald Kendall）为软饮料行业增加了营销亮点

注：

百事公司前 CEO 唐纳德 · 肯德尔（Donald Kendall）于 9 月 19 日去世，享年 99 岁。

“Rock and roller cola wars, I can’t take it any more!” cried Billy Joel in his chart-topping song from 1989, “We didn’t start the fire”. He had had enough of the intense marketing battle between America’s fizzy-drinks behemoths. As the underdog, PepsiCo had stunned its bigger rival, Coca-Cola, by signing Michael Jackson, the era’s biggest musical star, to promote its brand in a record-setting $5m deal.

“摇滚明星，可乐大战，我承受不了了！”比利·乔尔（Billy Joel）在他1989年榜单榜首的歌曲《不是我们点的火》中嘶吼道。他已经受够了美国碳酸饮料巨头之间激烈的市场竞争。当时，处下风的竞争者，百事公司（PepsiCo）为推广其品牌，以创纪录的500万美元（折合3400万人民币）签约当时最大牌的音乐明星迈克尔·杰克逊（Michael Jackson）。此举令竞争力更强的可口可乐（Coca-Cola）大为震惊。

注：“We didn’t start the fire” : A song by Billy Joel that alludes to headline events from March 1949 (Joel was born on May 9 of that year) to 1989, when the song was released on his album Storm Front. The song was a number-one hit in the US, and often parodied since.

The cola wars became a cultural phenomenon. Credit for that goes to Donald Kendall, PepsiCo’s legendary former boss, who died on September 19th aged 99. A gifted salesman, he rose quickly through the ranks from his start on the bottling line to become the firm’s top sales and marketing executive at the tender age of 35. Seven years later he was named CEO. In 1974 he injected a dose of fizzy capitalism into the Soviet Union, which allowed Pepsi to become the first Western product to be legally sold behind the iron curtain. By the time he stepped down as boss in 1986, PepsiCo’s sales had shot up nearly 40-fold, to $7.6bn. His legacy continues to shape the industry.

可乐大战已经成为一种文化现象。这要归功于一位传奇人物——百事可乐公司前任老板唐纳德·肯德尔，他于9月19日去世，享年99岁。他是一名天赋异禀的推销员，从灌装线工人迅速晋升为金牌销售，年仅35岁便升任市场总监。7年后，他被任命为首席执行官。1974年，他为苏联注入了一剂“碳酸”资本主义，使百事成为第一个在铁幕后合法销售的西方产品。他1986年卸任老板时，百事的销售额已爆增近40倍，达76亿美元（折合520亿人民币）。他任职期间留下的遗产仍在影响整个产业。

Mr Kendall offered a mix of strategic vision, principled leadership and marketing flair. Two years after taking charge he acquired Frito-Lay, a leading purveyor of snacks, giving PepsiCo an advantage from diversification that persists to this day. PepsiCo’s revenues last year of $67bn dwarfed Coca-Cola’s $37bn in sales. Decades before Black Lives Matter he named African-Americans to top jobs, making PepsiCo the first big American firm to do so—staring down racists including the Ku Klux Klan, which organised a boycott.

肯德尔集战略眼光、有原则的领导力与营销才能于一身。接手公司两年后，他收购了一家领先的零食供应商菲多利，这使百事公司在多元化发展中赢得竞争优势，这种优势延续至今。百事公司去年670亿美元（折合4600亿人民币）的营业收入，令可口可乐的370亿美元（折合2500亿人民币）相形见绌。早在BLM发起的几十年前，他就任命非裔美国人担任高层职位，此举使百事成为第一家采取此类做法的美国大公司——这是对3K党等种族主义者的蔑视，为此，3K党还组织了一场抵制活动。

注：

BLM: #BlackLivesMatter was founded in 2013 in response to the acquittal of Trayvon Martin’s murderer. Black Lives Matter Foundation, Inc is a global organization in the US, UK, and Canada, whose mission is to eradicate white supremacy and build local power to intervene in violence inflicted on Black communities by the state and vigilantes. By combating and countering acts of violence, creating space for Black imagination and innovation, and centering Black joy, we are winning immediate improvements in our lives.

But his masterstroke was the all-out marketing blitz against Coca-Cola, long the global market leader in non-alcoholic beverages. The two firms had competed for decades, but they mostly fought low-grade battles. Mr Kendall changed that, by forcing both companies into an advertising arms race. In 1975 Coca-Cola spent around $25m on advertising and PepsiCo some $18m. By 1985 those figures had shot up to $72m and $57m, respectively. In 1995 Pepsi outspent Coke by $112m to $82m.

不过，他的妙招是以全面的营销攻势迅速围剿可口可乐，后者长期以来一直是全球非酒精饮料市场的龙头老大。这两家公司已经竞争了几十年，但他们大多在低级别上比拼。肯德尔通过迫使两家公司进入广告“军备竞赛”状态，扭转了这一局面。1975年，可口可乐在广告上花掉了差不多2500万美元（折合1.7亿人民币），百事可乐花掉了大约1800万美元（折合1.2亿人民币）。1985年，两家广告费分别飙升至7200万美元（折合4.9亿人民币）和5700万美元（折合3.9亿人民币）。到1995年，百事可乐花掉了1.12亿美元（折合7.6亿人民币）超过了可口可乐的8200万美元（折合5.6亿人民币）。

This was a risky gambit for both cola rivals. But it paid off in two ways. First, it helped fizzy drinks win a greater “share of throat” (a term coined by Roberto Goizueta, a former boss of Coca-Cola, who died in 1997). They went from 12.4% of American beverage consumption in 1970 to 22.4% in 1985. And though Coca-Cola maintained its lead in that period, with over a third of the market, PepsiCo’s share shot up from 20% to a peak of over 30% in the 1990s. Last year carbonated-drinks sales totalled $77bn in America, and over $312bn globally. Coca-Cola and PepsiCo remain dominant.

这种战术对两家可乐企业而言都是十分冒险的，但同时也带来了两大好处。首先，这种战术帮助碳酸饮料在饮料市场拿下了更多的“喉咙份额”（这是可口可乐前董事长罗伯特·戈依苏埃塔（Roberto Goizueta）发明的概念，这位前董事长于1997年逝世），1970年碳酸饮料在美国饮料消费总量中仅占12.4%，到1985年这一比例扩大到22.4%。至20世纪90年代，虽然可口可乐依然独占鳌头，占据整个市场的三分之一，不过百事可乐所占市场份额也飞速上涨，从20%升至峰值30%多。去年美国碳酸饮料总销量高达770亿美元，全球总销量高达3120亿美元，而可口可乐和百事可乐的地位依旧无法撼动。

注：

1. Pay off（Macamillan English Dictionary 2nd Edition）

pay ˈoff [present tense I/you/we/they pay off he/she/it pays off present participle paying off past tense paid off past participle paid off] phrasal verb
1. [intransitive] if something that you do pays off, it brings you some benefit
      All those weeks of studying will pay off when you take the exam.
Thesaurus: to be advantageous and yield benefits synonym 
2. [transitive] to give someone all the money that you have borrowed from them to buy something
Only another six months and the house will be paid off.
Thesaurus: to pay, or to not pay money you owehyponym 
 3. [transitive] to stop employing a worker and give them any money that they are owed

Over 1,000 workers will be paid off if this factory closes.
 Thesaurus: forcing someone and being forced to leave a jobsynonym applying and interviewing for jobshyponym 
 4. [transitive] to give someone money so that they will do something bad or dishonest for you
There were suspicions that officials had been paid off.

Thesaurus: bribery and manipulationhyponym to do something dishonestsynonym 
4a. to give someone money so that they will not do something that will cause you problems, especially by telling people about something bad that you have done
They threatened to tell reporters about him unless he paid them off.

Thesaurus: bribery and manipulationhyponym to do something dishonestsynonym 

终于被你滚到底了

2. share of throat is a beverage industry term that refers to the proportion of the world’s beverage consumption produced by a single company. The term was originally coined by Coca-Cola as “throat share”, in order to measure how much of the world’s beverages were theirs, but is now commonly referred to as share of throat.

The second way that the cola wars benefited both companies was by turning them into “the world’s best marketers”, observes Kaumil Gajrawala of Credit Suisse, a bank. Today a decades-long obsession with cut-price volume growth has been replaced by a focus on revenues and profits.

瑞士信贷银行（Credit Suisse）的考米尔·格拉瓦拉（Kaumil Gajrawala）认为，可乐之战给两家公司带来的第二大好处在于它令两家公司都蜕变为“全球最好的营销企业”。几十年来，企业沉迷于降价竞争市场份额，如今则专注于收入和利润之争。

PepsiCo in particular has relinquished some of the soft-drinks market, where its share has fallen back down to a quarter (see chart 1). But its marketing magic continues to sparkle, even if it is deployed to sell less sugary alternatives such as bottled water, coffee and energy drinks to health-conscious consumers. And over the past 40 years PepsiCo has returned nearly a third more to shareholders than Coca-Cola has (see chart 2).

百事可乐尤其如此，放弃了一部分市场份额下降到25%（如图1所示）的软饮市场，但即便只是面向关注健康的消费者销售像瓶装水、咖啡和能量饮料等低糖替代品，它的营销魔法也从未失效。在过去40年里，百事可乐为其股东带来的收益比可口可乐高出近三分之一。（如图2所示）。

In many industries a cosy duopoly retards innovation and harms consumers. The happy outcome of the cola wars has been the exact opposite. As Mr Kendall himself observed, “If there wasn’t a Coca-Cola, we would have had to invent one, and they would have had to invent Pepsi.” 

对于许多产业而言，两大巨头的稳定垄断都会延缓创新的脚步、损害消费者利益，可乐之战的结果则恰好相反，皆大欢喜。正如肯德尔先生自己所说的那样：“如果没有可口可乐，我们也要创造一个，而可口可乐则要创造一个百事可乐。”

翻译组：

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

Lavender, MTI在读，不会做模特的追星女孩不是好的话剧爱好者

校对组：

Elle, 女，靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝
Very，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Forest，女，自由职业，爱树的人

竞争在哪里？

此文很短。感觉还没有读几行，行文已匆匆至末尾。

回看两段，脑袋里就冒出这个问题，哪里有最激烈的竞争？

通常我们都觉得在有很多企业的行业中，竞争是最激烈的。而行业的自由进出是保证业内竞争的必要条件。但是如果行业内企业数量很少，且存在着很大的进入障碍，就一定缺乏竞争吗？

并非一定如此，单纯考察市场结构其实不足以说明竞争的强度。有些情况下，如果市场中只有几个大供应商，也就是被称为寡头垄断的情况，竞争可能会格外激烈。最容易想到的可能是石油市场了，虽然勾结常有，但是竞争经常很激烈。只有少数几个企业的行业内竞争，竞争有时候是割喉式的。经济学家们认为真正的竞争是对消费者有利的竞争，这些厂商在价格、非价格方面、广告与市场方面以及创新和新产品开发方面展开充分有效的竞争。

而肯德尔先生所言之“如果没有可口可乐，我们也要创造一个，而可口可乐则要创造一个百事可乐。”不禁让人想到另一个行业，芯片。英特尔和AMD大概也是这样看待对方，保持着一个竞争者的存在，能帮助自己进步。

不过如此巨额的广告费，好像不够有效率，让人想起兰德公司的“一美元拍卖”博弈。这个比赛对于两方来说都无路可退，因为参与两方都陷入了一种两难困境：越是参与便支出越多，而不继续参与则目前的损失巨大。

另一个问题就是对消费者当前有益的利益和所谓长远的公共利益的问题，这一问题让人想到目前的科技公司，它们在变得越来越大的过程中提供了看似日益廉价的互联网服务，但是是否提供了越来越大的公共利益，这是值得关注和需要研究的问题。

此记。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

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原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491875&idx=2&sn=0532c4245bc2b105ad8904dee7152bc1&chksm=fba3b284ccd43b92d0268de52ad01ef53b78087cc4c16c40812dbe24743e088a4007f047afeb#rd

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原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491875&idx=3&sn=ce233ab91ce7c604d7807f7d1e0f9f9e&chksm=fba3b284ccd43b926728b42cd6f13ca0251abe54c5072be42a77a0645ed1ae3c3c755c7c1d9c#rd

久别重逢，

失而复得，

虚惊一场。

---End---

经济学人社论 || 量子计算

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491834&idx=1&sn=305f0814ee0c45f7f261da5b0a0e3a96&chksm=fba3b35dccd43a4bf8c0eb75cf3d3442dd0d4dc6c5b9afa4930a5ef3b9a8fa1a6728d28db652#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Quantum computing

量子计算

英文部分选自经济学人20200925期Leaders版块

Quantum computing

量子计算

From cloisters to the cloud

初见端倪

Investors are pouring money into quantum computing. Its development offers lessons about innovation

投资者正在向量子计算领域投入大量资金。它的发展为创新提供了经验

It is hard to choose one moment as marking the birth of a technology. But by one common reckoning, quantum computing will be 40 next year. In 1981 Richard Feynman, an American physicist, spoke at a computing conference, observing that “Nature isn’t classical, dammit, and if you want to make a simulation of nature, you’d better make it quantum mechanical, and by golly it’s a wonderful problem, because it doesn’t look so easy.”

很难选择一个时刻作为一项技术诞生的标志。但人们普遍认为，量子计算到明年就40岁了。1981年，美国物理学家理查德·费曼(Richard Feynman)在一次计算机会议上发言，他说:“真见鬼，自然界并不像经典物理学描述的那样。要想模拟自然，最好用量子力学。天哪，这真是一个精彩的问题，因为一看就不容易。”

Entering middle age, quantum computing is at last becoming a commercial proposition. Until recently the consensus was that practical applications would have to wait for large, stable machines, probably at least a decade away. Not everyone agrees. Venture capital is beginning to flow into companies built around quantum computers, as investors make a bold—possibly foolhardy—bet that even the limited, error-prone, unstable machines that make up the state-of-the-art today may prove commercially useful.

步入中年，量子计算最终变成为一个商业命题。一直到最近人们还认为实际应用将不得不等待大型、稳定的机器设备，而这一等待可能至少需要十年。现如今，并非所有人都同意这一观点。风险资本开始流入围绕量子计算机而成立的公司，投资者做出了大胆（也或许是莽撞）的押注：即使当今最先进的技术是小型的、容易出错且不稳定的机器，也可能被证明具有商业价值。

If those bets pay off, it would be good news, and not just for investors. Quantum computers can perform some sorts of mathematics far faster than any classical machine. Building them could open up entirely new vistas. They may, for instance, revolutionise chemistry. Most reactions are too complex for existing computers to simulate exactly, blunting researchers’ precision. Quantum machines could cut through the mathematical tangle, with applications in materials science, drugmaking, batteries and more. Their facility with optimisation problems, which are likewise a struggle for non-quantum machines, could be a boon for logistics, finance and artificial intelligence.

如果那些押注获得了回报，将是一个好消息，而且不仅仅是对投资者而言。量子计算机进行某些数学运算的速度比任何传统计算机都要快得多。建造量子计算机可以开辟全新的前景。例如，它们可能会彻底改变化学。大多数化学反应过于复杂，现有的计算机无法进行精确模拟，这削弱了研究的精确度。量子计算机可以解决数学难题，在材料科学、制药、电池等领域得到应用。尽管量子计算机的设备存在优化问题（这对于非量子计算机来说也是一个亟待解决的问题），但这可能会给物流、金融和人工智能带来福音。

The field’s progress is interesting for another reason. Quantum computing offers a worked example of how complicated technologies develop in industrial societies. The chief lesson is to attend to every part of the process. The frenzy of innovation around classical computing, concentrated in Silicon Valley, has focused attention on the world of startups, venture capital and IPOs. But these are things that happen late in a technology’s development, when swift commercial returns are, if not certain, then at least plausible. As Mariana Mazzucato, an Italian-American economist, has argued, the biggest risks are taken earlier, when it is unclear whether a technology will work at all.

量子计算的发展引人瞩目，还有另外一层原因：复杂难懂的技术到底是如何在工业社会得以发展的，量子计算就是一个活生生的例子。关于这个问题，最重要的一条经验就是关注技术发展的每一个环节。传统计算机领域的“创新热”，主要汇聚于硅谷，集中在初创公司、风险投资和IPO上。但这些都出现在技术发展的后期，此时快速获得商业回报的可能性不说百分之一百，也至少是非常大的。意大利裔美国经济学家玛利亚娜·马祖卡托（Mariana Mazzucato）就曾表示，如果不明确一项技术能否发挥作用，那么早早地采取行动就是最大的风险。

The state can be one such risk-taker. The first step in building a quantum computer was to conduct plenty of abstruse mathematics on university blackboards. Collectively, governments, including those of America, Britain, China and Germany, have thrown billions of dollars at funding quantum research.

政府可以承担这样的风险。建造量子计算机的第一步，就是要在大学黑板上做大量高深的数学运算题。美国、英国、中国和德国等各国政府，已经共计投入数十亿美元，用于资助量子研究。

Other early work was done in the sorts of big, boring companies in which no self-respecting disrupter would be seen dead. The first useful quantum algorithm was discovered in 1994 at Bell Labs, which began life as the research division of America’s telephone monopoly. Another early pioneer was IBM, which also has a buttoned-up reputation—but whose researchers have, over the years, earned six Nobel prizes. Today Google and Microsoft are playing a big role in developing quantum technologies.

其它的早期工作，由千篇一律的大型企业完成，这些公司是那些自尊的创新者死都不愿意待的地方。首个有价值的量子算法被发现于1994年的贝尔实验室，这里最初是美国电话垄断公司(AT&T)的一个研究部门。IBM则是另外一个早期先驱，素来名声不显——但其研究人员这些年来已经获得了六座诺贝尔奖。如今，谷歌和微软在量子技术发展过程中，发挥着举足轻重的作用。

注：sb wouldn’t be seen/caught dead: used to say that you would not like to wear particular clothes, or to be in a particular situation.（表示不愿意穿戴某衣物或处于某种环境）死也不愿意。

She wouldn’t be seen dead in a hat. 她最讨厌戴帽子。

He wouldn’t be caught dead going to a club with his mother. 他死也不愿意跟母亲一起去俱乐部。

The trick for such super-early-stage investors is to know when to stick with a risky prospect and when to call it quits. Good venture capitalists are ruthless about culling underperforming bets and focusing on those that seem to be paying off. Their proximity to markets makes such judgments easier. But governments—which are, after all, spending public money—should strive for the same outlook. If the state is to back technologies that are too risky for other investors, then a high rate of failure is both inevitable and desirable.

超早期投资者的诀窍在于知道什么时候险中求胜，什么时候离手退场。优秀的风险投资人会果断放弃表现不佳的项目，把资源集中在有望成功的项目上。他们紧跟市场动向，方便判断抉择。政府，毕竟是用公家的钱投资，也该力求取得同样的结果。不过，如果政府支持那些对于其他投资者来说风险过高的技术项目，虽然无法避免高失败率，但这种做法仍是值得的。

There are other lessons, too. Quantum computing has come as far as it has on the backs of thousands of mathematicians, experimental physicists and engineers. That is a reminder of the limits of “great man” theories of innovation, exemplified by the cult of Steve Jobs, a founder of Apple. The popular image of innovation as a “pipeline”, with a stream of individual technologies proceeding smoothly from ideas to products, is likewise too neat. Progress in quantum computing depends on progress in dozens of other fields, from lasers to cryogenics.

此外，还有其他经验。量子计算是站在千万数学家、实验物理学家和工程师的肩膀上发展至今的。所以要注意技术创新中“伟人”论的局限性，这点从苹果创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯身上可见一斑。在大众的想象中，创新就像一根“管道”，沿着它，一项项的技术从概念顺利发展成为产品。这种想法同样太过简单。量子计算的进步离不开其他领域技术的发展，比如激光和低温学。

 None of that is to deny the importance of the people who run the last few miles, taking nascent technologies and trying to spin out profitable businesses. But those who want to see more of that success should keep in mind that a great deal of less celebrated, less glamorous work must come first. 

这也并不是说跑完最后几公里的那些人就不重要，他们看准新兴技术，维持企业盈利。但如果想了解成功背后的故事，就应该知道大量无名无闻的基础工作才是第一位的。

翻译组：

Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实

Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

Phoenix ，女 ， 人口买卖从业者（HR），不拘一格爱玩儿福娃

校对组：

Wesley，男，英语老师，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Desmond，男，即将读研，悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者

Dossver，男，搞翻译，打游戏，看小说，练游泳，做个现充

3

观点|评论|思考

感想一

Samantha，女，不吃米饭，邓伦未婚妻

大量默默无闻的基础工作不仅是出发点，更是目的地。量子计算可以应用到的行业囊括了金融、医疗、制造、资源，以及媒体。以媒体业中的广告设计为例，根据咨询业巨头埃森哲的分析，客户有不同的消费者偏好，每种偏好对应不同的系统，每个系统代表各自的产品属性——要选择哪种属性呈现在哪个消费者群体面前，眼下没有谁能比量子计算机更擅长做这个决定。

如果说上世纪初开始的第一代量子计算革命只是普及了概念，那现在正进行中的第二代革命对决策者们来说就是拼家底的时刻。1998年之前，欧洲多个国家已经开始展开研究工作，但因为方向各异，进度并不太理想。98年起，欧盟发起了未来和新兴技术（Future and Emerging Technologies）计划，为欧洲量子研究提供了约5.5亿欧元的资金。二十年之后，量子技术旗舰（Quantum Technologies Flagship）正式上马。德国先投了20亿欧元与IBM合作筹建两台量子计算机，明年将在斯图加特附近投入使用。

新闻需要结合辟谣贴食用。可以理解媒体喜欢搞标题，混淆那些普通人不太了解的概念。总之在量子计算这个话题上，还没有哪个国家有重大突破。去年谷歌宣称的“量子霸权”更像是个市场部的行为， 旨在推广品牌和制造里程碑，而非解决实际问题来取得颠覆性成果。默克尔在去年的达沃斯上也表达了量子计算还处于so far down the road阶段。在探寻新科技边界的这条路上，科学家们依然大有可为。

 感想二

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

大概是前年，愚蠢的我由于受到某种莫可名状的影响，做了一件至今看来还是那么滑稽可笑的事：我在B站看了3期MIT的量子力学课程，居然开始着手看起了狄拉克的《量子力学原理》，但是大概硬着头皮看到第三天，就再也看不下去了，我猜我大概在人生剩下的日子里也只能了解一些科普类的读物了。

自己常常会去做一些旁人看起来是那么理所当然不会成功的事，一来我不信邪，二来么我每每都在高估自己的能力和魅力，读书的时候也时常觉得女神会对自己另眼相看，其实她只是把我当做工具人而已。自己也经常会去做一些出乎意料的事，看一些旁人见不得的书，大概是偶尔有几次成功的经历，于是心中便埋下了追逐奇迹的种子。

可能这就和“心里一定要有个梦想，万一实现了呢”一个道理，但我想大部分人也只是将此停留在口头或者茶余饭后的闲谈之中，毫无敬畏之心，也没有打算真正动手去做。倘若人类都是如此，大概发展也没如此迅速了，还是有一小部分的傻人，或者走投无路之辈，揣着一个目标，投入自己一辈子的光阴，概率学角度来看，总会有几个幸运儿，他们就是我们前进的火车头。

如果你打算做一个早出晚归，喂奶带娃的常人，那最好不要这么干，享受天伦之乐人生幸福还是一个比较安稳的选项，但如果你心无所牵，同时又肯吃苦有天赋，那或许可以试试，反正也没什么可以再失去的。总有人希望两者兼得，一边爱情亲情满满，一边成就突破遍地，我就是偶尔做做这样的梦，但是醒来后心中总是堵得慌，因为我知道自己没有这种天赋，没有这种背景，没有这种运气，大概率就是一个普通人了。

对于选择，不仅仅是人自己的选择，甚至是科学研究上的，大部分还是由别人推动的，人无法做自己的主人，虽然很不幸，但是这是真的。即便是位高权重之人，也总有与之匹敌的对手，画字行棋之间无往不是互相制约和博弈的结果，所以真正意义上能够行自己所欲者，寡也。

于是结论就是，该干嘛干嘛，别多想，除非你真的一无所有，那可以去搏一搏，单车变摩托。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day455

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491834&idx=2&sn=ae8f0f1abf17fef6b9f622d1303d4269&chksm=fba3b35dccd43a4bd71a1e60b3fa721bc1ce3dd436564cee1b0ff9d9f00b7fda7c1e36983d21#rd

我们不能控制机遇，却可以掌握自己；

我们无法预知未来，却可以把握现在；

我们不能知道自己的生命到底有多长，

但我们却可以安排当下的生活；

我们左右不了变化无常的天气，

却可以调整自己的心情。

所以我们应该一天给自己一个希望！

---End---

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491823&idx=1&sn=7bcaf2076267e78967be014d5c7781d6&chksm=fba3b348ccd43a5efa4b73b946640708e83e1df154c90ae578323035968bb28719cadc59f840#rd

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | From cloisters to the cloud

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/09/26/what-quantum-computers-reveal-about-innovation?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Fire-starter

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/09/26/how-donald-kendall-as-pepsicos-boss-sparked-the-cola-wars?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | The bright side

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/24/does-economic-growth-boost-stock-prices?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | The monster and the boys

https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/09/26/born-in-los-angeles-ms-13-came-to-terrorise-el-salvador?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | Diva dissenter

https://www.economist.com/obituary/2020/09/23/ruth-bader-ginsburg-died-on-september-18th?frsc=dg%7Ce

PS:

1.有兴趣加入写作天团的看这里

 写作天团永远剩一席！

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

---End---

写作天团永远剩一席！

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491819&idx=1&sn=fb290e32286a2dad0186f497281e9104&chksm=fba3b34cccd43a5aec639f8da4bec52d62cd9aded3a4b0f2eb1d794953a6ad5d5531d573f74f#rd

写作天团永远剩一席！

为什么会这么说呢？一方面是本身要达到加入的要求已经很难，而且即使达到要求了，具体沟通后，有小伙伴会因为时间凑不上又或者教学经验缺乏等问题无法参与这个项目，又或者由于各种突发事情（工作变动，出国等）暂时离开，再者正式开课后，我们也会根据学生反馈对老师进行考核，对不满足要求的老师进行淘汰，所以写作天团永远剩一席！

当然做这么多，目的只有一个：为了给大家提供好的课程，真的能学到东西，而不是捣糨糊。所以在此重新说下具体要求：

1. 雅思总分8分且写作单项8分以上，

2.有雅思托福写作授课经验

3.有一定的时间

4.一定要有责任心

当然要求和回报是成正比的哈，这个一定不要担心，最后请有兴趣且满足要求的小伙伴赶紧私信小编（VX:396196827)吧为了大别野，冲鸭！机不可失，失不再来。(此贴长期有效）、

ps:外刊打卡训练营今天晚上正式开营了，如果您学习外刊没有毅力坚持下去？又或者疑难困惑无人解答？

赶紧点击下方超链加入

外刊打卡训练营！

---End---

经济学人逝者 || 天体物理学家琼·费曼

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491816&idx=1&sn=44abe565febf193a99bc14635274efd3&chksm=fba3b34fccd43a592a78667319a45f3bd56d905d2321940baba1eb23e50e7b4082b0105a8c05#rd

1

导读

学习外刊没有毅力坚持下去？

疑难困惑无人解答？

赶紧点击下方超链加入

外刊打卡训练营！

本期训练营开设时间

20200928-20201025

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

‍

‍Obituary: Joan Feynman‍

‍

逝者：琼·费曼

英文部分选自经济学人20200918期逝者版块

Obituary: Joan Feynman

逝者：琼·费曼

Getting to know the Sun

探知太阳

Joan Feynman, astrophysicist, died on July 22nd, aged 93

天体物理学家琼·费曼于7月22日逝世，享年93岁。

In the dusty Spanish town of Tordesillas in 1494, Spain and Portugal divided the unclaimed world between them. The moment is famous. Less well known is that around 1963, she at Columbia, he at Caltech, Joan Feynman and her brother Richard divvied up the universe. She took auroras, the Northern and Southern Lights that shimmer through the night sky in the highest latitudes. He, nine years older and fast becoming a world star in physics, took all the rest, which was fine with her.

1494年，在尘土飞扬的西班牙小镇托尔德西里亚斯，西班牙和葡萄牙两国瓜分了新世界。那是历史上的著名时刻。而不那么为人所知的是，1963年左右，在哥伦比亚大学的琼·费曼，和她在加州理工学院的哥哥理查德，两人划分了宇宙。琼选了极光，即高纬度地区夜空中一闪而过的北极光和南极光。而年长琼九岁的理查德——当时正迅速崛起为物理学世界之星，选了其他所有，琼也欣然接受。

The arrangement was serious. When, many years later, Richard was asked to look into auroras, he said he would have to ask Joan’s permission. She said no. They were hers, and besides, he had started the fascination. One night when she was small he dragged her out of bed, made her get dressed and took her to the golf course in Far Rockaway, near their house. Auroras did not normally come down to lower latitudes, but here was one. As she stared at a sky that was dancing with red, gold and green lights, he told her that no one knew how they happened, which was true back then. The mystery, with the lights, lodged in her head for good.

这个协定是来真的。多年后，有人让理查德研究极光，理查德说他必须征得琼的同意。琼拒绝了。极光是她的，而且正是理查德让她开始对极光痴迷。那是儿时的一个夜晚，理查德把睡梦中的琼拽下床，让她穿好衣服，带她去了家附近法洛克卫的高尔夫球场。极光通常不会在低纬度地区出现，但在那里可以看到。当她凝视着那片红、金、绿光交融起舞的天空，他告诉她，没有人知道极光是怎么发生的，当时确实如此。这个谜，连带这片光，永远印在了她的脑海中。

After years of looking into it, she found the answer. Auroras happened when particles from the solar wind, the stream of free electrons and heavy ions flowing out of the Sun, penetrated the magnetosphere that protected the Earth. The magnetic fields of the Earth and the solar wind, bound in different directions, intersected, and the colours were caused by solar particles colliding with oxygen and nitrogen in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. During coronal mass ejections, when huge flares of material were flung out of the Sun at speeds of up to 1,500km a second, auroras increased in frequency and range on the Earth. The faster the speed, the greater the geomagnetic disturbance.

经过多年的研究，她终于找到了答案。从太阳涌出的自由电子和重离子组成的粒子流称作太阳风。当太阳风的粒子穿过保护地球的磁层时，就产生了极光。地球磁场和太阳风，各自朝着不同的方向，然后相交；太阳粒子与地球高层大气中的氧和氮碰撞，产生了色彩。日冕物质抛射过程中，当巨大的耀斑以高达1500公里/秒的速度从太阳喷出时，地球上极光发生的频率和范围都会增大。喷射速度越快，地磁扰动程度越大。

注：

1. 日冕物质抛射（coronal mass ejection）是巨大的、携带磁力线的泡沫状气体，在几个小时中被从太阳抛射出来的过程。表现为在几分钟至几小时内从太阳向外抛射一团日冕物质（速度一般从每秒几十公里到超过每秒1000公里），使很大范围的日冕受到扰动，从而剧烈地改变了白光日冕的宏观形态和磁场位形。日冕物质抛射是日冕大尺度磁场平衡遭到破坏的产物，日冕物质抛射破坏了太阳风的流动，产生的干扰会影响到地球，甚至引发悲剧结果。 

2.地磁扰动/地磁暴：A geomagnetic disturbance (GMD), also known as a geomagnetic storm, is a major event in Earth’s magnetosphere. It’s caused by a very efficient transfer of energy from solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth. 

Her studies expanded, fuelled by data sent back by Explorer 33 in 1966, to cover as much as possible of the Sun’s behaviour: its 11-year sunspot cycles, its 88-year Gleissburg cycles, its strange peaks and troughs of activity. Most usefully for the Space Age, she found that coronal mass ejections could be detected by the presence of helium in the solar wind. They also came in groups. If these storms could to some extent be predicted, spacecraft could be designed to resist them better. In short, that night walk in childhood had led her to a lifetime of considering the interplay between the Earth and its giant, vital, fluctuating star: a star it faced with its magnetosphere flattened on the day-side like a shield, while on the night-side of Earth the magnetosphere relaxed, with a wide, long, open tail. That shape, too, she had discovered.

在1966年“探索者33号”传回的数据的推动下，她的研究进一步扩展，尽可能多地囊括了太阳的行为：11年的太阳黑子周期，88年的格莱斯堡周期，太阳活动奇特的高峰期和低谷期。对太空时代最有价值的是，她发现太阳风中的氦可以用来检测日冕物质抛射。而日冕物质抛射也是成群出现的。如果可以对这些风暴进行一定程度的预测，宇宙飞船就可以设计得更能抵抗风暴。简言之，童年的那次夜行指引她一生去思索地球和它巨大、关乎生命又变幻不定的恒星之间的相互作用：面向太阳，地球日半球的磁层变得扁平如盾牌；而在夜半球一侧，磁层则放松下来，变成一条又宽又长没有尽头的尾巴。这个形状也是她发现的。

Yet she might never have done any of this work. At every turn people tried to put her off science as a career. Women couldn’t do it, her mother said. Their brains were too feeble. At Syracuse University, where her thesis was on absorption of infra-red radiation in crystals, she was told to write one on cobwebs, more useful for cleaning her house. When she tried, after graduating, to place an ad in the New York Times for a research job, she was told only men could do so, in the men’s section.

然而她原本可能永远无法完成以上任何工作的。在人生的每个节点，都有人想让她退出科学事业。女人不能从事科学工作，她妈妈说。女人的大脑太脆弱。她在锡拉库扎大学写的论文是关于晶体中红外辐射的吸收，那时别人跟她说不如写一篇关于蜘蛛网的文章，还更有助于她打扫房子。毕业后，她尝试着在《纽约时报》上登广告找研究工作，但却得知只有男人可以这么打广告，在男人相关的版面里。

Marriage and children therefore seemed inevitable as well as desirable, but full-time housewifery drove her to misery and then depression. Science was her life. Now it seemed mostly confined to her kitchen, observing how long it took to heat the baby food, or showing her elder son, as she baked, how to mix an acid with a base in a bottle to get an explosion. There were shades of her upbringing here, in a family jumping with curiosity, where everything—a napkin rolling across the table, a bug on a leaf, the wonder that the heavy waffle-iron was made of atoms—had been investigated. The how and why of everyday science still delighted her, but even part-time research was hard to fit in. And all the while the shining Sun reminded her what she should be working on.

因此，结婚生子看上去不仅是可取的选择，而且不可避免。但是当全职家庭主妇让她十分痛苦、进而抑郁。科学是她的生活。而现在她能接触的科学基本就局限在了她的厨房里，她会观察多长时间才能热好婴儿餐，或者在烘焙时给长子演示如何在瓶中混合酸和碱产生爆炸。这里有她儿时家庭教养的影子：她的家人对一切充满好奇，什么都可以调查研究一番，比如滚过桌子的餐巾纸，叶子上的甲虫，以及沉重的松饼铛是由原子构成的这等奇事。家常科学中的如何和为何仍然让她感到开心，但即便是兼职研究也很难融进她的生活。而一直以来，头顶灿烂的阳光都在提醒着她应该投身什么事业。

The one person who had always encouraged her was Richard. Though she constantly doubted herself, ready to shrink into some background role, he told her to aim for the top. As soon as she could talk he had challenged her with sums and made her his assistant in his bedroom-lab, to throw switches and hold her finger in a spark-gap to feel the little shock. Bringing her water at night, he would whirl the glass around to show the magic of centrifugal force. On her 14th birthday, feeding her fascination with the night sky, he gave her a college textbook on astronomy. It was hard going, but on page 407 came a revelation as good as the aurora, or almost. Below a figure of a spectrum was a reference to a work by Cecilia Payne-Gaposchkin on stellar atmospheres—a woman, a married woman at that, doing science. So the world was not closed to her. It could open. She just had to persist and, over 60 years, she did.

唯一一个一直在鼓励她的人是理查德。尽管琼总是怀疑自己、想要退到某些幕后角色里，但是理查德告诉她要追求顶尖目标。她刚学会讲话，理查德就要求她学算术，后来让她在他的卧室实验室做小助手，让她扳动开关，再将她的手指放到火花间隙感受轻微的电击。理查德晚上给她端水时会转动水杯，向她展示离心力的神奇。琼14岁生日时，为满足她对夜空的痴迷，理查德给了她一本天文学的大学课本。这本书深奥难懂，但是第407页出现了一份启示，跟极光一样美好，或者说几近一样美好。在一幅光谱图下面，文字提到了塞西莉亚·佩恩-加波希金关于恒星大气的著作——一名女性、而且还是一名已婚女性，在从事科学工作。科学的大门并未向她关闭，她仍可以开启它。她只需坚持下去，而在60多年里，她确实坚持下去了。

Increasingly she was interested not simply in the science of Earth-Sun relations, but in their history. From 1985, working at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, she studied observations of auroras from ancient China and medieval Europe, when people feared they portended war, famine, the return of spirits or the work of devils. She consulted records, kept methodically for centuries, of water levels in the Nile, to trace the impact of the Sun on the climate of north Africa. Though the Sun was in a historically stable phase, and had been for billions of years, to her eye it still showed considerable, often strange, variation—variation which, she thought, might explain the relative tardiness of Homo sapiens to take up agriculture, waiting until, round 10,000bc, the climate stabilised.

逐渐地，琼的研究兴趣不仅局限于地日关系，还扩展到了它们的历史。从1985年起，她在加利福尼亚州帕萨迪纳的喷气推进实验室，研究中国古代和欧洲中世纪的极光观测记录。那时人们担心极光是战争、饥荒、亡灵回归或者恶魔作恶的凶兆。琼查阅几个世纪以来保存有序的尼罗河水位记录，追溯太阳对北非气候的影响。尽管太阳处于历史平稳期，并且已在数十亿年间保持稳定状态，但是在琼看来，太阳仍然表现出了相当大的、不可思议的变化——她认为这些变化可能会解释为什么智人相对较晚才开始从事农耕，一直等到约公元前一万年气候稳定了才开始耕种。

To those who asked why, in her late 80s, she went on researching, her answer was partly that she still had plenty of questions. How, for example, did the Sun end up with a cycle of 88 years? And why did it act in the unexpected ways it did? The beauty of auroras was beguiling. But with one extra-high-speed ejection, as it had shown from time to time, the Sun could disable Earth’s communications. And it was also possible, with only a small bout of laziness, that it could turn the golf course in Far Rockaway—that golf course where Richard had told her, “Nobody knows”—back into the ice rink it had been 12,000 years before.

有人问琼，为什么快90岁了还坚持研究工作。她回答说，部分原因是她仍然有很多问题。例如，为什么太阳的活动周期就是88年？为什么太阳表现出它这种出人意料的活动方式？极光美得迷人，但是太阳只需一次超高速日冕物质抛射——这种情况时有发生——就能中断地球通信。而同样有可能的是，太阳只需稍微偷下懒，就可以将法洛克卫的高尔夫球场变回到一万两千年前冰场的模样。正是在这个高尔夫球场，理查德曾告诉她“没有人知道极光是怎么发生的”。

翻译组：

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Kemay，决心练好笔译的未来口译员

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉

Qianna，追求专业的非英专，很讲逻辑，英伦摇滚迷

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Lucia，英语专业学生，经济学人爱好者

著名天体物理学家琼·费曼（Joan Feynman）在太阳风粒子和太阳风场、地日系统以及磁层物理学的研究上做出了重要贡献。她探究了极光原理，将一生的热情都奉献给了太阳！然而，女性科学家在成功之前似乎总避不开当时世俗羁绊的磨练，凭借永不言弃和热情追求的毅力，她们才能摆脱束缚，有所成就。

琼与哥哥理查德在父亲的影响下，从小对科学知识产生了浓厚的兴趣。8岁那年，母亲却对她说：“女人不能研究科学，因为她们的大脑不适合”。这不免让琼·费曼对自己的能力产生怀疑，但她没有停止对科学的喜爱。直到14岁，哥哥送她一本《天文学》教材，当读到“根据塞西莉·佩恩-加波施金（Cecilia Payne-Gaposchkin）的研究……”，“塞西莉”这个女性的名字给了她信心，她相信女性可以研究科学，此后才能坚持不懈，追寻自己的研究事业。

我国清朝时期，有一位学贯中西、通晓天文地理的女性科学家王贞仪（1768—1797），她撰写出《月食解》一文，精辟地阐述了月食发生、月食和月望以及食分深浅等知识，“通星象，精历算，工诗文，通医理”，潜心研究天文，一丝不苟。在“女子无才便是德”的封建世俗下，她不屈不挠、坚持开辟科学道路。“始信须眉等巾帼，谁言儿女不英雄”是她抵制封建伦理的宣言。在女性应“唯命是从”的社会风气下，她不仅博览中西群书，还敢于质疑西洋传入的天文学知识，“西历虽至密，亦未能言概准”。她长年坚持夜观天象，日算星辰，亲自动手制造仪器、做实验，为中华民族科学发展史贡献出巨大力量。

“女科学家”这一称呼引起越来越多的关注与讨论，在不断开明的社会发展中，更加平等的环境为女性的科学研究或事业发展减少了压力与束缚。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day454

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491816&idx=2&sn=44062916393a36d0a79e4bbfbef51778&chksm=fba3b34fccd43a5933c1a55709269ecdb96c588baa955adeabb80e11f06acbd6ccacc5a131b0#rd

两马各拉一货车。

一马走得快，一马慢吞吞。

当主人把后面的货全搬到前面时，

后面的马笑了：哼，越努力越遭折磨！

谁知主人又想：既然一匹马就能拉车,干嘛养两匹？

于是懒马被宰掉吃了。

这就是经济学中的懒马效应。

让别人觉得你可有可无，你被踢开的日子就不远了。

---End---

经济学人文艺 || 从尼日利亚的电影王国“诺莱坞”到网飞

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491806&idx=1&sn=4fe7160ce7ea8efd2f40ab90881c29c6&chksm=fba3b379ccd43a6fd72fbc8d06267f22f76038ff848073e12fced2b912340e54e5c031c2e0fe#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

学习外刊没有毅力坚持下去？

疑难困惑无人解答？

赶紧点击下方超链加入

外刊打卡训练营！

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组 

From Nollywood to Netflix

从诺莱坞到网飞

英文部分选自经济学人文艺板块

From Nollywood to Netflix

从诺莱坞到网飞

衍生阅读：在电影院几乎绝迹的非洲，藏着一个比好莱坞还高产的“诺莱坞” 

https://www.sohu.com/a/291848926_120044102

African entertainers are wowing global audiences

非洲明星博得全球观众喝彩

“I swear to make sure you never forget about me,” sings Burna Boy on the opening track of “Twice as Tall”, which was released last month. These days there is little chance of that. The Nigerian musician’s fifth album, an evocative blend of contemporary sounds, score-settling and social commentary, topped the streaming charts in dozens of countries. It was streamed 5m times in the hour after it came out.

“我定要让你们永远记住我”，伯纳男孩在上个月新专辑《Twice as Tall》的主打歌中唱道。现在人们的确记住他了。该专辑是这位尼日利亚歌手的第5张专辑，它将当代音乐、不满宣泄以及社会评论完美融合，稳居数十个国家播放排行榜的榜首。发行后一小时，播放量就达到了500万次。

注：
Score-settling: 来源于词组settle a score; taking revenge on someone for something damaging that they have done in the past 翻旧账秋后算账

Burna Boy is one of the biggest stars associated with Afrobeats (also known as Afropop): an umbrella term for what is less a genre than a movement, encompassing influences such as Caribbean soca and dancehall, electro hip-hop, jùjú music (based on Yoruba rhythmic percussion) and auto-tune heavy pop. Other prominent artists include Davido, WizKid, Mr Eazi and Tiwa Savage. All have record deals with major Western labels, clock up tens of millions of listens on streaming sites and attract thousands of fans to concerts. Afrobeats artists have collaborated with the likes of Drake, Stormzy and Beyoncé, who last year curated an album featuring a host of African talent.

伯纳男孩是非洲节拍音乐（也叫非洲pop）的代表艺人之一。非洲节拍音乐是一个宽泛的概念，与其说它是一种音乐流派，不如说是一场音乐运动，非洲节拍音乐受到勒比索卡音乐、舞厅乐、电子嘻哈、祖祖音乐（以约鲁巴节奏打击乐为基础）和自动调音的重金属流行乐等影响。其他杰出街拍乐歌手，如达维多、威资克、伊阿兹先生和蒂瓦·萨维吉，他们都与西方大型唱片公司签约，作品在网站上的播放量达数千万次，数千粉丝来听他们的演唱会。非洲节拍音乐代表歌手还曾与德雷克、史东兹和碧昂斯等巨星合作，碧昂斯去年发行的专辑就是融合了众多优质非洲音乐元素。

注：
1. Umbrella term雨伞术语，是一种比喻的说法，表示此术语涵盖几个术语而成，或者叫概括性术语。

2. Afrobeat: Afrobeat是Yoruba music、jazz、Highlife和funk rhythms的结合，使用打击乐器和人声，上世纪七十年代在非洲开始流行。它的主要发明人是尼日利亚多乐器手和乐队领队Fela Kuti。Fela Kuti还将政治和音乐混在了一起。在他和他的乐队Nigeria 70从美国回来后，Fela Kuti创造了名词Afrobeat。

Boosted by “Black Panther” (2018), a superhero smash-hit set in a fictional African kingdom, African film and television are also drawing a broader audience. Nollywood, as Nigeria’s film industry is known, is increasingly renowned for the quality of its output as much as its quantity. Netflix recently bought the rights to Nigeria’s two highest-grossing films, “The Wedding Party” (2016) and its sequel (2017), as well as the much-praised “Lionheart” (2018). This year it released its first original African-made show, “Queen Sono”, a spy drama set mostly in Johannesburg, created by Kagiso Lediga, a South African writer-director. Next came “Blood & Water”, set in Cape Town, which became one of Netflix’s ten most popular shows in over 50 countries.

漫威超级英雄电影《黑豹》于2018年上映，故事背景是一个虚构的非洲王国，该电影取得了巨大的成功。正是由于这部电影，非洲电影和电视剧逐渐走入更多观众的视线。尼日利亚的电影行业也被称作诺莱坞，因大量优质作品而闻名于世。奈飞最近买下了尼日利亚票房最高的两部电影的版权，分别是2016年上映的《婚礼派对》及其2017年的续集，还有2018年上映口碑良好的电影《狮心女孩》。今年奈飞播出了名下第一部非洲原创电视剧——《特工女王》，这是一部间谍片，故事场景在约翰内斯堡。由来自南非的卡吉索·莱迪加创作，他既是编剧也是导演。之后奈飞又播出了《血与水》，这部剧故事场景在开普敦，在50个多国家登上了奈飞十大最受欢迎电视剧的榜单。

Previous African entertainers have enjoyed global success. Fela Kuti, Youssou N’Dour and Hugh Masekela sold records far beyond, respectively, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa. In the 1970s Senegalese films such as “Touki Bouki” (1973) wowed overseas audiences. But never before have so many African artists burst into the global mainstream together. The momentum extends to literature: this week Tsitsi Dangarembga, a Zimbabwean writer, and Maaza Mengiste, who was born in Ethiopia, were shortlisted for the Booker prize for fiction.

之前也有非洲的艺人举世闻名。尼日利亚的菲拉·库提、塞内加尔的尤苏·恩杜尔和南非的休·马塞凯拉，他们的专辑都曾远销国外。20世纪70年代，诸如《图基·布基》（1973）的塞内加尔电影也曾风靡海外。但以前从未有如此多的非洲艺术家同时在世界主流娱乐圈崭露头角。这一趋势延伸到了文学领域，本周津巴布韦作家齐齐·丹加伦布加和出生于埃塞俄比亚的作家马萨·门吉斯特一同入围了布克奖候选名单。

注：布克奖（the Booker prize），当代英语小说界的最高奖项。只要原创作品用英语创作，均可参评。每年评选一次，参选作品必须在前一年12月1日至当年11月30日内出版，共有小说、非小说、诗、青年文学四大奖项。

Africa has long been seen as an importer of culture, say Matthias Krings and Tom Simmert, two academics, in a recent paper. The battered minibuses on the streets of capital cities attest to that, emblazoned as they are with the names of English Premier League footballers or American hip-hop stars. But increasingly there are posters of African pop stars on the walls of American, British or French teenagers’ bedrooms, too. African countries are exporting more of their cultural output. As Davido says of Afrobeats, “It’s our new oil.”

马蒂亚斯·克林斯和汤姆·席默特在最近发表的一篇论文中称，非洲一直以来都被认为是文化输入国。从非洲各国首都街道上随处可见的破烂小巴车就可见一斑：车上画着英超联赛的球员或是美国的嘻哈明星。不过，非洲流行歌星的海报也慢慢出现在美国、英国和法国青少年的卧室墙上。非洲国家也正越来越多地输出自己的文化。正如达维多对非洲节拍音乐的评价，“它是我们全新的石油。”

The moment has been a long time coming. In the 1980s and 1990s it was harder for African artists to win attention. Making music, films and tv was expensive; at home, widespread piracy made it difficult to earn money. Abroad, African music was often relegated to catch-all “world music” shelves in record shops, next to Peruvian pan pipes. The only references to the continent on mainstream Western radio shows may have been “Africa” by Toto, a weird if catchy song, or the members of Band Aid bellowing inaccurately about its lack of snow in “Do They Know It’s Christmas?”

非洲艺术经历了漫长的过程才有今天。20世纪八九十年代，非洲艺术家难以获得关注。做音乐、拍电影电视剧耗资巨大，且国内盗版盛行，艺术家很难赚钱。在国外的音像店里，非洲音乐沦落到被放置在笼统的“世界音乐”大类货架上，挨着秘鲁的牧羊神笛。西方主流广播节目提及非洲大陆的内容，恐怕只有托托（Toto）演唱的一首奇特但悦耳的《非洲》，或是邦迪乐队（Band Aid）在《他们知道这是圣诞节吗？》那首歌中，大声唱着非洲没有雪，即使这一描述不够准确。

From the 2000s changes in technology began to level the global playing field. Cheap kit let Afrobeats producers make high-quality recordings; software meant sounds could be more easily mashed together. Blogs such as notjustok.com helped broadcast music and generate followings. The market for song excerpts as ring tones provided a new source of income. For their part, film-makers benefited from fans uploading segments to YouTube. Then came streaming services such as Spotify and Apple Music, as well as Netflix and irokotv, which hosts Nollywood films.

进入新世纪后，技术变革开始缩小全球娱乐圈的差距。非洲节拍音乐创作者只需便宜的工具就可创作高质量的专辑；软件则让混音变得更加容易。诸如notjustok.com的博客推广创作者的音乐，并帮他们吸收粉丝。歌曲片段作为铃声开辟了一条新的创收道路。粉丝将电影片段上传到Youtube，电影制作人由此获利。然后就是声破天、苹果音乐、奈飞和irokotv这样的流媒体，irokotv也是诺莱坞电影的主办平台。

Two other powerful trends have encouraged the spread of African pop culture: demography and diasporas. The median age on the continent is under 20. Like the post-war baby-boomers, such a large cohort of young people may have been bound to sway global tastes. Meanwhile first- and second-generation African populations in the West have sharply expanded.

另外两大趋势也促进了非洲流行文化的传播，一是人口结构，二是海外非裔人口的流动。非洲大陆人口的年龄中位数不足20岁。与战后婴儿潮一代一样，如此庞大的年轻人群体一定会对全球文化品味产生影响。此外，生活在西方的第一代和第二代非洲人也出现爆发性增长。

The number of immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa in America shot from 265,000 in 1990 to 2m in 2018 (375,000 are Nigerians, the largest single group). Between 2001 and 2011 the African-born population of England and Wales rose from 800,000 to 1.3m (the Nigerian contingent more than doubled). “Once you blow in Nigeria you almost automatically blow in London,” says Joey Akan, founder of Afrobeats Intelligence, a newsletter. Since it remains hard to make money in Nigeria, he adds, its artists must reach the diaspora.

1990年，美国来自撒哈拉以南非洲移民为26.5万人，到了2018年，这一数字飙升至200万，其中人数最多的是尼日利亚裔，有37.5万人。2001-2011年间，英格兰和威尔士的非洲移民从80万增加到130万，尼日利亚裔人口是原来的两倍多。“尼日利亚的红人，也能在伦敦大红大紫。”《非洲打击乐情报》的创始人乔伊·阿坎如是说。他还说，在尼日利亚赚钱依旧艰难，尼日利亚的艺术家必须走出国门。

Home thoughts from abroad

游子的乡土情怀

African migrants and their children are far from just passive consumers, especially when it comes to music. A London-born dj of Ghanaian parentage, dj Abrantee, is credited with popularising the term Afrobeats in 2011. Several well-known Afrobeats artists come from the diaspora, for example the British-born acts J Hus, Fuse ODG and NSG. Davido was born in Atlanta.

非洲移民和他们的后代绝不仅仅是被动消费者，在音乐方面尤其如此。阿布兰提是一名唱片节目主持人（DJ），生于伦敦，父母都是加纳人。2011年，在把“非洲节拍音乐”这一名词发扬光大上，他功不可没。还有其他知名的非洲裔节拍音乐艺术家来自海外，如出生在英国的acts J Hus、Fuse ODG和NSG，和生于亚特兰大的达维多。

The clout of Nigerians, both on the continent and in the West, has led to some grumbling. Ghanaian artists sometimes say Nigerians play down the influence of their genres, such as hiplife and azonto, on Afrobeats. In 2015 Kenyan artists took to the streets to demand local radio stations play more of their music. Beyoncé’s album included few east Africans, noted musicians from the region. Western packaging can add to the impression that there is little happening outside Lagos. Popular “Afrobeats” streams heavily feature Nigerians.

无论是在非洲本土还是在西方，尼日利亚裔艺术家都招致了一些不满。加纳裔艺术家认为，尼日利亚在非洲节拍音乐中削减他们的艺术的影响力，如嘻哈生活和阿桑托舞蹈。2015年，肯尼亚裔艺术家走上街头，要求当地广播台播放更多肯尼亚裔艺术家的音乐。碧昂丝的专辑中几乎没有东非人和东非艺术家的元素。西方的包装给人留下的印象是，非洲艺术只聚集在拉各斯。广受欢迎的“非洲节拍音乐”以尼日利亚风格为主流。

注：拉各斯（Lagos），尼日利亚第一大城市，同时也是整个西非地区人口最多的城市，2006年人口逾800万人。2019年，在全球城市500强中排名第133位，是非洲最为现代化的大都市之一，尼日利亚全国60%的工业产值集中于此。

Such worries about “Nigerianisation” in part reflect the sheer number of Nigerians (over 200m) and the role of Lagos as a creative hub. But other sounds are attracting more attention, too, for example South African house styles, gqom and amapiano. Even if these are quickly adapted by enterprising Nigerians, that stimulates interest in the original music. High-profile festivals and playlists may be dominated by Nigerians but they increasingly showcase others, such as Nasty C from South Africa, Navy Kenzo, a Tanzanian duo, or Innoss’B, a Congolese singer-songwriter.

对于“尼日利亚化”的担忧在某种程度上反映出，尼日利亚庞大的人口总量（超过2亿）和拉各斯城作为创意中心的地位。不过，其他非洲地方的音乐也越来越引起人们的关注，如南非的家庭音乐gqom和amapiano。尽管这些音乐形式很快就被雄心勃勃的尼日利亚裔艺术家改编，但同样也激起了人们对原创音乐的兴趣。虽然高端艺术节和歌曲榜单仍是尼日尼亚艺术家的天下，但同时也慢慢出现其他地区音乐人的身影，例如南非的Nasty C、坦桑尼亚的双人组合Navy Kenzo以及刚果的唱作家Innoss’B等。

A more piercing critique, at least of the African-made shows on Netflix, is that consumers in the rest of the world are not getting an authentic sense of African lives. “Queen Sono” is “a Hollywood spy drama copy-pasted into Johannesburg with a black female protagonist”, argues Tsogo Kupa, a South African writer and film-maker. “Blood & Water” comfortingly mimics the tropes of American teen dramas.

针对奈飞上播放的非洲本土制作的电视剧，有更为犀利的评论：其他国家的观众并没有真正了解到非洲人的生活。南非编剧兼电影制作人Tsogo Kupa说：“《特工女王》是一部披着非洲外衣的好莱坞谍战剧，只不过主角是黑人女演员，故事场景换在了约翰内斯堡而已。” 《血与水》则恰到好处地模仿了美国青少年影视剧的主题。

Yet their creators should be cut some slack. Many Westerners remain deeply ignorant about Africa. Last year the Africa Narrative, an initiative based at the University of Southern California, published a study of 700,000 hours of American tv aired in March 2018. It found that just 14% of references to Africa were positive; in 44% of cases, no particular country was specified. And even if the Netflix shows are bland, they contain telling details and asides. The first episode of “Blood & Water” makes a brief mention of the horrors of Belgian Congo—not something found in “Gossip Girl”. The films Netflix has bought are generally better than the tv shows. “Cook Off”, a Zimbabwean romcom, deliciously captures the country’s gallows humour.

但也不必过于苛责这些电视剧的制作者，很多西方人对于非洲依旧一无所知。去年，由南加州大学发起的Africa Narrative发布了一项针对2018年3月播放的70万小时美国电视节目的研究报告，该报告显示，涉及非洲的内容中，只有14%的是正面的，有44%的内容没有具体说明是非洲哪个国家。即便是奈飞的节目也枯燥乏味，通常都是讲述细节和旁白。《血与水》第一季简要提及了发生在比属刚果的恐怖事件——这在《绯闻女孩》中不会出现。奈飞购买电影的质量通常比电视剧高。如津巴布韦的浪漫喜剧《Cook Off》就巧妙捕捉到了这个国家的人在“大难临头时的黑色幽默”。

If African artists still have work to do, so do cultural gatekeepers in the West. The Grammy awards still consign Afrobeats to “world music”. The application of “Lionheart” for an Oscar for best international film was turned down because most of the dialogue is in English (with a smattering of Igbo). In response, Genevieve Nnaji, who directed and stars in it, observed: “We did not choose who colonised us.”

如果说非洲艺术工作者仍有提升的空间，那么西方的文化“看门人”亦是如此。格莱美奖依旧将非洲节拍音乐归为“世界音乐”。电影《狮子之心》曾角逐奥斯卡最佳国际电影奖，但由于对白大多为英语（夹杂少量伊格柏语）并未入围。该影片的导演兼主演吉纳维芙·纳吉对此作出回应：“尼日利亚曾是英国的殖民地（因此英语为尼日利亚的官方语言），而这也并非我们所愿。”

翻译组：

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者 

校对组：

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

Helen，女，坐标武汉，职业翻译，翻硕已毕业英语二笔二口，爱好陶笛洞箫古诗词

3

观点|评论|思考

休息一下......

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“请求加入TE讨论群",小编通过后，请做好以下三点：

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day453

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491806&idx=2&sn=c67015eb6aacc7b930b6ebbee0801b05&chksm=fba3b379ccd43a6fc1c0c5214e8c09e975f11925095c474d8b05c12b3263eca8a0289277cba8#rd

人生艰难，

但是如果你有笑对人生的能力，

你就有享受人生的能力。

---End---

经济学人财经 || 风光与旧时不同

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491795&idx=1&sn=9ede6735d682d41b3131d490dc3f75d3&chksm=fba3b374ccd43a62fa7cc3c49eac3771ab91ba999f714490e2d151fc996a2e61a556cefa9073#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

May Li，男 ，我要追逐心中的太阳爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

1.学习外刊没有毅力坚持下去？

疑难困惑无人解答？

赶紧点击下方超链加入

外刊打卡训练营！

2. 还在为背雅思单词绝望，苦恼？

雅思词汇营，我们来了！

具体参看今天第二条推送

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Altered vistas

风光不与旧时同

英文部分选自经济学人20200918期财经版块

Altered vistas

风光不与旧时同

Tech stocks are reliving the heady days of the 1990s. The productivity picture looks wildly different

科技股正在重振上世纪90年代的繁荣时期，但生产率情况却截然不同。

In troubled times people take comfort in the familiar. Covid-19 has upended many things, but tech-stock prices have proved impressively invulnerable. The Nasdaq, a tech-heavy stock index, has leapt by 25% since the beginning of 2020, taking its total rise over the past decade to over 400%. Were it not for a handful of tech giants like Apple and Microsoft, the s&p 500, another share-price index, would be down so far this year. Not since the boom of the late 1990s have technology firms inspired such exuberant trading. For punters the comparison should be a sobering one; after a peak in March 2000 the Nasdaq crashed, eventually losing 73% of its value. But the economic differences between the two eras should be more unsettling than any market similarities.

在困难时期，人们会因熟悉事物而感到安慰。疫情颠覆了许多事情，但科技股的价格却完全不受影响。纳斯达克指数（以科技股为主的股票指数）自2020年初以来已经上涨了25% ，在过去十年的总涨幅超过了400% 。如果不是像苹果和微软这样的少数科技巨头，标准普尔500指数（另一种股价指数）如今应该是下降的。自上世纪90年代末的繁荣以来，科技公司还未曾有过如此旺盛的交易。对于投机者来说，这种比较应该是有警醒意义的：在2000年3月达到顶峰后，纳斯达克崩盘，并最终损失了73% 的市值。但两个时代间经济的差异应该比任何的市场相似点都更令人不安。

注释：

upended：翻倒；倒放；使颠倒；

The two booms do share features beyond their stock-price trajectories. Both were sustained by inflows of new money. In the late 1990s discount brokerages and online-trading platforms drew in amateur punters looking to profit off the seemingly one-way market. Today, an army of small-timers trade shares and derivatives on new platforms like Robinhood. In the 1990s raging bulls justified high prices by declaring the dawn of a new economy, built on more powerful computers, fancy software and the internet. Today’s optimists cite the potential of everything from cloud computing and artificial intelligence to electric vehicles and blockchain. At first glance the economic performance seems similar too. In the late 1990s the unemployment rate fell to 4% and pay soared. On the eve of the pandemic, America’s jobless rate stood at a half-century low and wage growth, after a dismal decade, had accelerated to its best pace since 2008. According to figures published by the Census Bureau on September 15th, real median household income grew by a very healthy 6.8% in 2019.

这两个繁荣时期确实具有股价轨迹之外的其他相似特征。例如两者都受到新资金流入的支撑。上世纪90年代末，折扣经纪和在线交易平台吸引了业余投机者，他们希望从这个看似单向的市场中获利。如今，一大批小规模的投资者在Robinhood 这样的新平台上交易股票和衍生品。在20世纪90年代，疯狂的牛市宣称基于更强大的计算机、高级软件和互联网的新经济到来，以证明高股价的合理性。而当今的乐观主义者列举了从云计算和人工智能到电动汽车和区块链的一切潜力。乍看之下，经济表现似乎也差不多。20世纪90年代末，失业率降至4% ，工资飙升。而在疫情爆发前夕，美国失业率正处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，而工资增长速度在经历了十年低迷后，达到了2008年以来的峰值。根据人口普查局9月15日公布的数据，2019年实际家庭收入中位数增长了6.8%，增幅十分合理。

注释：

1.discount brokerages：折扣经纪，向投资者提供服务时收取较低或折扣佣金的证券公司。

2.small-time：不太重要的，没有分量的，小规模的；

Yet in critical ways the two episodes look profoundly different. As the 1990s dawned economists were hunting in vain for the efficiency-enhancing effects of new technology. Robert Solow, a Nobel prize-winning economist, quipped in 1987 that “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” By mid-decade that was no longer the case. Output per hour worked in America rose by more than 3% a year in 1998-2000, a feat the economy had not pulled off since the early 1970s. Growth in total factor productivity (a measure of the efficiency with which capital and labour are used, often treated as a proxy for technological progress) rose by about 2% a year from 1995 to 2004, according to Robert Gordon of Northwestern University. That was a sharp pickup from the average pace of 0.5% in 1973-95, and nearly matched the rate achieved during the heady growth years of 1947-73.

然而，两个时期在关键点上截然不同。20世纪90年代初，经济学家试图寻找新技术提高效率的成效，结果都劳而无功。获得诺贝尔奖的经济学家罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）于1987年嘲讽道：“处处可见计算机的时代已经到来，就是在生产率统计数据方面看不见”。到上世纪90年代中期，情况却已不再如此。在1998年至2000年期间，美国每工作小时产出以每年3％的速度增长，这是自1970年代初以来从未有过的经济成就。据西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）表示，1995年至2004年期间全要素生产率（衡量资本和劳动效率的指标，通常被视为技术进步的代表）每年增长约2％，较1973-95期间平均增速0.5％有了显著上升，增速几乎与1947-73年增长强劲时期相当。

注释：

1987年，索洛指出“Computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics”，人们称之为索洛悖论“productivity paradox”，意指IT产业无处不在，而它对生产率的推动作用却微乎其微。

Productivity in the 2010s, by contrast, looks pitiful. Annual growth in labour productivity has not risen above 2% since 2010. Growth in total factor productivity, according to data gathered by John Fernald of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, has been more dismal than ever: just 0.3% on average from 2004 to 2019. If you take the 2010s alone, the average falls to just 0.1%.

相比之下，2010年代的生产率看起来低得可怜。2010年以来，劳动生产率年增速从未超过2％。旧金山联储约翰·费纳尔德（John Fernald）收集的数据显示，全要素生产率的增长比以往任何时候都更加惨淡：2004年至2019年间平均增速仅0.3％，单看2010年代的话，平均增速则低至0.1％。

Strong labour productivity growth in the 1990s enabled wages to rise without squeezing corporate profits. While the dotcom boom is often remembered for the enormous valuations achieved by profitless upstarts with no clear path into the black, after-tax corporate profits during the decade rose from 4.7% of gdp in 1990 to 6.7% in 1997, before closing the decade at 5.6%. Corporate profits actually declined as a share of gdp during the 2010s, albeit from a much higher level than that prevailing in the 1990s: from 10.4% in 2010 to 9.0% in 2019. More telling, however, is the way in which firms responded to profit opportunities during the two decades. Investment in computer equipment, software and r&d leapt during the 1990s, by 1.5 percentage points of gdp over the decade. In the 2010s, despite the much higher level of profits, investment rose by just 0.7 percentage points of gdp.

20世纪90年代，强劲的劳动生产率增速使得工资可在不挤占公司利润的情况下实现增长。没有利润、没有清晰路径去实现盈利的新兴企业却能获得高估值，那场互联网繁荣因此而被铭记。但这十年间，税后公司利润从1990年GDP的4.7%上升至1997年的6.7%，2000年为5.6%。而2010年代公司利润占GDP比重实际是下降了，尽管是从比1990年代高的多的水平下降：从2010年的10.4%下降至2019年的9.0%。然而，更能说明问题的是20年来企业对于获利机会的应对之道。上世纪90年代，对计算机设备、软件和研发的投资猛增，占过去十年间GDP的1.5个百分点。2010年代，尽管利润水平更高，但投资增长仅占GDP的0.7个百分点。

注释：

1.Into the black：(进入黑字状态)财政上处于有利状况，变为有盈余，变为有结余。

2.Leap：If you leap to a particular place or position, you make a large and important change, increase, or advance. 巨变; 剧增

The exuberance that powered soaring stock prices in the late 1990s, if in some cases irrational, occurred alongside tech-powered structural change. The uptick in productivity was at first driven by advances in computer-making. As prices tumbled and capabilities soared, other firms began investing in new equipment. Productivity gains began to spread across the economy, helping firms streamline manufacturing and transforming critical industries. These persisted, and even accelerated, for some years after the market crashed. Though many dotcom darlings disappeared, the digital infrastructure built during the boom remained. So did a number of firms that came in time to dominate the corporate landscape. In March 2001 The Economist grimly assessed the prospects of Amazon, a struggling retailer that had lost 90% of its market value in the crash, noting that “even if such companies survive, they are unlikely to resemble the businesses they once were.” (Holding Amazon through the crash proved a smart bet; its stock now trades at about $3,100, up a tad from under $10 in 2001.)

20世纪90年代后期，也许在某些非理性的情况下，伴随着技术驱动的结构性变化，推动股价飙升的市场繁荣发生了。生产率的提高最初由计算机制造的进步所驱动。随着其价格下跌以及功能飞速发展，其他公司开始投资新设备。生产率的提高开始贯穿整个经济，帮助企业提升制造业效率并变革关键行业。在市场崩溃后的几年里，这些情况持续存在，甚至加速了。虽然许多互联网公司界的宠儿消失了，但繁荣时期建立的数字化基础设施仍然存在。许多适时入局、主导企业界的公司也是如此。2001年3月，《经济学人》对亚马逊的前景进行了严苛的评估，该零售商此前陷入困境，市值损失了90%。本报指出，“即使这些公司生存下来，它们也不太可能像以前那样。”（在股市暴跌时持有亚马逊是一个明智的选择；目前它的股价已经从2001年的不足10美元上涨到了3100美元）。

注释：

1.Exuberance：丰富，茂盛；健康；感情洋溢(或慷慨激昂)的言行；(感情等的)过度(或极度)表现

2.tumble：If prices or levels of something are tumbling, they are decreasing rapidly. (价格或水平) 暴跌 

3. streamline：To streamline an organization or process means to make it more efficient by removing unnecessary parts of it. 提高…效率

4.grim：冷酷的；糟糕的；残忍的

5. You can use a tad in expressions such as a tad big or a tad small when you mean that it is slightly too big or slightly too small. 稍微; 略微[非正式]

Only nineties kids will remember productivity

生产率将只是90年代企业的记忆

Some of today’s high-flyers will in time prove to be good investments. Optimism about the real economy requires a bit more faith. There are grounds for hope. Some economists reckon that hard-to-measure “intangible” investment—such as time spent re-engineering business processes—takes up a growing share of firms’ energies. If so, both investment figures and future economic prospects could be undersold.

如今一些高价投机股最终将被证明是好的投资选择。对实体经济保持乐观需要多一点信念，而且我们有理由抱有希望。一些经济学家认为难以衡量的“无形”投资——例如在重建业务流程上花费的时间——占了公司越来越多的精力。若是如此，投资数据和未来经济前景都可能被低估。

注：high-flyer

■A stock that is trading at a high level relative to its fundementals 金融术语：高价投机股（相对于基本面来，交易价格较高的股票）

■someone who has a lot of ability and a strong wish to be successful and is therefore expected to achieve a lot 有能力有抱负的人•High-flyers in the industry typically earn 25% more than their colleagues.这个行业中，那些有能力有抱负的人收入一般都比他们的同业高25%。

■an extremely successful organization, business or team 极为成功的组织（或公司、团队）

Both output per hour and total factor productivity accelerated in 2019. Though it remained well short of the 1990s, this uptick might presage an economic transformation in the making. And the covid-19 pandemic has imposed constraints on business activity, which might in turn accelerate tech-driven restructuring. The possibility has probably contributed to the surge in tech stock prices since March. For now, technology valuations are based, to a far greater degree than in the 1990s, on what could be rather than what is. Invest accordingly.

2019年，每小时产出和全要素生产率都加快增长。尽管还远低于上世纪90年代，但小幅增加可能预示着经济转型正在形成。新冠疫情限制了商业活动，这或许会反过来加速了科技驱动的重组。这一可能性或许是三月以来的科技股价格剧增的成因。相较于上世纪90年代，目前科技股的估值在更大程度上是取决于它可能会变成什么，而非它是什么。请投资者做好相应的投资。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Annie Y，女，翻译硕士，IR一枚，爱别处的生活
Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Jessie Lulu，女，金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

  文章在讨论上一次的互联网泡沫和现在十年来的科技股大牛市有何异同。用的方法是比较这两个时期的全要素生产率、劳动生产率、公司利润占GDP、研发费用占GDP等指标。我个人觉得这样的梳理过于泛泛，并没有深入探索造成两次科技股牛市的微观机理上的不同。

  上一次的互联网大泡沫是全范围的，当时任何和互联网沾边儿的公司，无论大小，只要概念契合，股价都远远高高得离谱。这次的科技股大牛市并没有像互联网大泡沫那么夸张，当把FAANG剔除后（Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google），其实剩下的科技企业并没有体现出瞠目结舌的高溢价。现在市场上没有一个让人趋之若鹜的科技概念，云技术、电动车等等算是，但是即使是电动车巨头特斯拉也是经历一轮又一轮的做空、经历过产能地狱才走出来的，并不存在单边上涨的情况（今年的暴涨来自于量产的支撑）。我觉得这样的科技股大牛市和互联网泡沫最大的区别是，前者是所有人都能吃蛋糕，后者是赢家通吃。

  互联网行业的“赢家通吃”现象已经被讨论了很多了。facebook和google是典型；amazon在美国电商领域没有竞争对手，线下的walmart也很难对抗它；apple构建了一整套运营生态环境，专注手机设备市场/手机应用市场/云端服务的公司很难找到切入口挑战它；Netflix恐怕就差中国这个市场没有占领了，Hulu/HBO都太小了。FAANG的护城河肉眼可见得明显。

  技术革新的速度要比人们预期得要慢得多。人们对未来可以充满很多幻想，但是技术研发需要一代代缓慢迭代而来，intel和IBM被Microsoft超越也不是一蹴而就的，在被新生企业挑战的过程里老一代霸主其实也在转型，只是intel和IBM转型并不顺利而已。《创新者的窘境》里探讨了这个问题，最后作者的结论是因为这家企业的成功就是来自于硬件生产，所以企业内部的各部门条线都是习惯将研发等资源倾向于硬件生产部门，这样企业即使意识到问题但是也会被束缚在路径依赖的问题中。而Microsoft也因为同样的原因渐渐被Facebook、Netflix等取代，它不是不想改变，微软的内部人员并不擅长toC业务，他们的成功就是来自于toB业务，微软自己也并不是不想改变。

  目前的FAANG也都在加紧布局新的业务，以防止在竞争中自己逐步掉队。比如在云端服务里，各家科技巨头就都在加紧砸钱，最近出镜率很高的Oracle其实已经被甩得越来越远了。某种程度上，FAANG的高估值也来自于这一点，它们的加速进化能力确实比同行来得强。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

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3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

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Clark，一笔，汽车公关行业

雅思词汇营，我们来了！

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经济学人商业 || 数据库买卖

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491773&idx=1&sn=cf2689880a20455bf9803ae48927904d&chksm=fba3b31accd43a0cce2e53c88c52cd82178e3d37f1140c4f41b33a4626211ddcfa3fb07b8087#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The database business

数据库买卖

英文部分选自经济学人20200918期Business版块

The database business

数据库买卖

Steam engine in the cloud

云端蒸汽机

Snowflake has raised $3.5bn in a record software listing. Now what?

雪花公司已筹资35亿美金，创下软件公司上市记录。现在又怎样呢？

Catching snowflakes is fun. It has become lucrative, too. Investors scrambled for shares in Snowflake, a maker of database programs, as it went public on the New York Stock Exchange on September 16th. The eight-year-old firm more than doubled its valuation the first day of trading, from $33bn to over $70bn, making its initial public offering the largest ever for a software firm. Even Warren Buffett, abandoning his customary tech-shyness, got in on the action. The legendary investor’s conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, put $735m into the firm, through a separate private placement and by purchasing shares from a former chief executive—a stake that is now worth $1.56bn.

抓雪花很好玩（注：这里的雪花应该既指雪花本身，又代表雪花公司），而且它现在也变得有利可图。9月16日，数据库（存储及分析）公司雪花在纽交所上市的时候，投资者们都在竞相争抢这家公司的股份。这家成立8年的公司的估值在上市交易的第一天翻了一番还多（从330亿美元增至700多亿美元）。这使得它成为软件公司史上最大的IPO。甚至连沃伦巴菲特也放弃了他对科技股的“敬而远之”，对这家公司采取了行动。这位传奇投资家的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司通过独立私募和从前CEO手中买下股份的方式，向这家公司注入了7.35亿美元。前CEO手里那部分股份现在已经值15.6亿美元了。

注：

Private placement: a sale of stock shares or bonds to pre-selected investors and institutions rather than on the open market. Investors invited to participate in private placement programs include wealthy individual investors, banks and other financial institutions, mutual funds, insurance companies, and pension funds.

The excitement shines a light on an obscure corner of information technology: software for managing corporate data. This database market already generates $55bn a year in sales (see chart). It is expected to expand rapidly as data become, if not the new oil, then at least an input for most companies. And it is changing in intriguing ways—not all of them good for Snowflake.

投资者的兴奋照亮了信息技术领域一个界鲜为人知的角落：公司数据管理软件。公司数据库已经成为了每年产生550亿美元收入的市场（见下图）。随着数据成为多数公司的投入方向，甚至被誉为数字经济的新石油，这个市场预计会迅速膨胀。同时，这个市场也在以耐人寻味的方式变化着——并不是所有变化都对雪花公司有利。

A database used to be best understood as a digital steam engine. Before electricity came along, a factory’s machines sat near a single power source. Similarly, corporate applications—programs that keep track of a firm’s finances or its supply chain, say—were built around databases housing all of a firm’s important information. Hard disks were pricey and had limited capacity so the best way to store it was in lean “relational” databases. Max Schireson, who used to run MongoDB, a database-maker, and now works for Battery Ventures, an investment firm, likens these to “a parking garage where, to save space, you put all the seats in one place, the tyres in another and so on”. The industry became dominated by a few firms, with Oracle leading the pack.

数据库曾经被认为是数字信息蒸汽机。电力出现之前，工厂的机器通常被放置在靠近单一动力源的地方。同样的，公司的应用程序（比如说那些跟踪记录公司的财务信息或者供应链的应用）也是围绕储存公司所有重要数据的数据库构建。但硬盘价格昂贵、容量有限，所以最好的方法是把数据存储在精简的“关系”数据库里。曾经营过MongoDB数据库公司的马克斯•西瑞森(Max Schireson)现在在巴特利风险投资公司（Battery Ventures）工作，他将数据库比喻成停车场，“为了节省空间，把所有座位放一个地方，所有轮胎放另一个地方，如此类推”。这个行业已经被一小部分企业所统治，其中甲骨文公司一马当先。

注：

1. MongoDB, 一款为web应用程序和互联网基础设施设计的数据库管理系统,是NoSQL类型的数据库。MongoDB数据库公司于2007年创办于纽约，2017年成功IPO。三位创始人分别是Eliot Horowitz（兼首席技术官）、Dwight Merriman和Kevin Ryan。

2. Max Schireson，MongoDB 前CEO ,于2014年离职。

As storage got cheaper and data volumes exploded, though, startups erecting new kinds of digital car park proliferated. Many focus not on tracking specific transactions but on analysing all manner of data to glean relevant knowledge about a business, such as where certain products sell best. These more cluttered “data warehouses”, as they are known, were pioneered in the late 1970s by a firm called Teradata. Their latest iterations are “data lakes”, which take in all sorts of unstructured information, including text and pictures.

随着信息储存成本下降而数据量暴增，大批建立新型数字“停车场”的初创公司应运而生，数量激增。这其中的许多企业并不专注于记录具体交易事务，而是专门分析各类数据、进而搜集特定业务的相关信息，例如某一种产品在哪里卖得最好。众所周知，这类更为繁杂的“数据仓库”是在20世纪70年代由天睿资讯（Teradata）开创的，最新版本是“数据湖泊”，它囊括了文字、图片等各种杂乱的信息。

注：

Teradata: 天睿公司（纽交所代码：TDC），是美国前十大上市软件公司之一。经过逾40 年的发展，Teradata天睿公司已经成为全球最大的专注于大数据分析、数据仓库和整合营销管理解决方案的供应商之一。(选自《百度百科》

Snowflake has gone a step further. It was one of the first firms to lift database systems from companies’ in-house data centres and into the computing clouds, the biggest of which are operated by Amazon, Google and Microsoft, a trio of tech giants. Snowflake’s customers can add capacity as needed—and pay depending on their use rather than a fixed price for a software licence, as was typical for relational databases. Better yet, its “multi-cloud” service works across the three big computing clouds, so customers need not get locked into any one of them. Recently Snowflake has also added features that let customers share and sell data, setting itself up as a data exchange of sorts.

雪花公司则更进一步，它是最早一批将数据库系统从公司内部数据中心上传到数据处理云端的企业之一，云端最大的部分由亚马逊、谷歌和微软三大技术巨头把持。雪花公司的用户可以按需扩大储存空间并根据自己的使用量付费，而不是像其他普通企业的关系数据库那样让客户支付一笔固定费用来获得软件使用权。更好的地方是，它的“多重云端”服务横跨三大数据处理云端，客户不必再拘泥于其中的任一云端。最近雪花公司的数据库也增添了新功能，允许客户分享或出售数据，将自己打造成类似数据交换的平台。

This has convinced many that Snowflake could be the next Oracle. The firm is certainly on a roll. Although it has yet to make money, its losses, of $171m in the six months to July, have declined as revenue has more than doubled year on year, to $242m. On current trends sales could reach nearly $1bn in the next 12 months.

因而，许多人相信雪花公司会成为下一个甲骨文公司，这个企业的确发展得很顺利。虽然它还没有开始盈利，但其亏损金额已有所下降——截止7月份，公司半年的亏损为1.71亿美元，但收益同比翻了一番多，达24,200万美元。就雪花公司现阶段发展势头来看，接下来12个月它的销售额可以达到近10亿美元。

Despite these promising numbers, and the market’s blessing, Snowflake has its work cut out. The company’s uniqueness will not last much longer, says Donald Feinberg of Gartner, a research firm. Rival firms, in particular the big cloud providers, have been beefing up competing products and have even dabbled with the multi-cloud. A few startups are already offering cheaper and more flexible “open source” alternatives such as ClickHouse, a particularly zippy data-management system sold by a startup called Altinity.

尽管数据上前途无量，市场广受认可，但雪花公司仍面临艰巨的任务。咨询公司高德纳（Gartner）的唐纳德•范伯格(Donald Feinberg)表示，雪花公司的独特性不会持续太久。竞争对手，尤其是大型云服务提供商，正努力加强竞品，甚至也已涉足了多云业务。一些初创公司已经在提供一些更便宜、更灵活的开源替代品，比如初创公司Altinity售卖的速度很快的数据管理系统ClickHouse（来自俄罗斯的分析数据库，以跑分快著称）。

注：

1. 美股年度最大 IPO 凭什么是它:

https://xueqiu.com/8823164979/159553910

2. 衍生阅读: ClickHouse 

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/22165241

Other challengers are building more specialised digital repositories. Data generated by websites, for instance, are often stored on “document-oriented” databases that, in the garage analogy, keep cars intact rather than strip them for parts. MongoDB is the market leader in this segment. Confluent, another startup, is big in “streaming” databases that garner information from sources like sensors. These are more akin to a motorway service station: data are quickly checked to see if action is needed.

其他挑战者则正在打造更加专业的数据仓库。比如，网站生成的数据经常存储在“面向文档”的数据库中。仍拿停车库作比，这类数据库是将一辆完整的轿车停在里面，而不是将其拆成零件存储。MongoDB是这个领域的市场领头羊。另一家初创公司Confluent，在 “流式”数据库方面做得很好，这类数据库从传感器等来源收集信息。这更类似于高速公路服务站：快速检查数据以确定是否需要采取行动。

Much as today’s assembly lines are driven by dispersed electric motors rather than a single steam engine, then, corporate IT systems will increasingly rely on sundry specialised databases, predicts Zane Chrane of Bernstein, a broker. That—and the fact that data will increasingly be analysed in real time, rather than saved in a conventional database—will limit the power and profits of any single supplier. So Snowflake is unlikely ever to become as dominant as Oracle. Snowflakes fly high in a flurry. They also melt.

投行伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的分析师赞恩·克雷恩(Zane Chrane)预测，就像今天的装配线由分散的电动机而非单一的蒸汽机驱动，公司的IT系统将会越来越依赖各种专业的数据库。此外，数据将越来越多地被实时分析，而不是保存在传统的数据库中，这一事实将限制任何单一供应商的能力和利润。因此，雪花公司不太可能成为像甲骨文一样的一方霸主。雪花虽一时半霎间能在高空飞舞，却最终也只落得个消融殆尽的田地。

翻译组：

Humi，女，Cater, Catti 二笔
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经文史哲爱好者，喜爱小动物

Lavender，MTI在读，不会做模特的追星女孩不是好的话剧爱好者

校对组：

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝
Very，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Zoey，女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Very，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

记得好些年前有这么一个想法，只要网速够快，那么包括显卡在内的所有运算都可以在网上完成，然后再传输到本地，打游戏就不需要买好的显卡了，毕竟老黄刀法精湛。虽然这种模式已悄然来到，但似乎能够达到如此高要求网速的费用远远大于购买本地硬件本身了。由此我想到了汽车，一百多年前的汽车似乎也并没有配套的公路，只是和马匹并驾在泥泞的土路上，但是当这种事物与其配套相辅相成般共同成长到一定的数量时，那么就会产生质的变化，我们可以为汽车专门铺设公路，为火车专门铺设铁路，为传输信息专门铺设光纤，为供水专门铺设水管，这两者在我看来是一体的，因为没管路的水是无法发挥其真正作用的，没有光纤的网路也毫无价值可言，所以事物的发展往往不是单独的，而是有其一整套逻辑在其中。

前两天老师上课讲到孔子理论中的“君子”，我就狭隘地认为“君子”中的“子”应该是儿子的意思，因为如此理解背后的逻辑是自洽的：如果自己努力的方向是做“君”的“儿子”（尽管有许许多多的条件限制），而孔子认为“孝”是做人的根本，所以从这两者自然能推出一个简单的逻辑：那就是你要“孝顺”你的“君”，而统治者就是这个“君”，所以就是用如此简单的办法把统治力下到了每一个个体中去了，简洁且高效，在古代的中国必然是一种会被统治阶级采纳的思想。反观道教，其讲究顺应自然，无为而治，这种思想如何可能被统治阶级接受呢？所以千百年来也没能成为历届统治阶级的首选。

接纳一种新生事物，高效和低成本似乎是不二法门，可能新事物会更迭，但是其自身的这两点属性倘若在变化过程中丢失了，则估计离淘汰不远了。早先时候的软盘，接下来的光盘，也似乎都是在变迁的过程中慢慢丧失了这两个特性而远离了人们的视野。

可惜对人而言就没这么简单了，我经常会思考某些事情，朝着高效低成本的方向做出选择，但是几乎所有的这类选择都是不受欢迎的，我观察旁人的选择，也往往不是在理性层面最优的那个，我很苦恼这些，因为这种状态让我感觉很混乱，很不得章法，内心没有一丝安全感。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day453

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491773&idx=2&sn=4873bbd1795f8b98845ac85c3e1f25d5&chksm=fba3b31accd43a0ccad6ac21e7f7e5b31447e97a7e8863c495a74c06123eca1d900f91460eba#rd

成长的很大一部分，

是接受。

自己作了就要自己受，

为自己做的选择买单也是一种能力。 

---End---

经济学人社论 || 新能源秩序

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491763&idx=1&sn=a9909b151e107e3e61f0a0b2e2e82f63&chksm=fba3b314ccd43a02969d6655d740348eb4a278492dc4a4529f5ffd6b7deb3ffb474f3011c3f1#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

学习外刊没有毅力坚持下去？

疑难困惑无人解答？

赶紧点击下方超链加入

外刊打卡训练营！

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

‍

The new energy order‍

‍

新能源秩序

英文部分选自经济学人20200918期Leaders版块

The new energy order

新能源秩序

Power in the 21 st century

21世纪能源

Efforts to rein in climate change will up-end the geopolitics of energy

遏制气候变化的努力将颠覆能源地缘政治格局

Oil fuelled the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order. As covid-19 struck the global economy earlier this year, demand for oil dropped by more than a fifth and prices collapsed. Since then there has been a jittery recovery, but a return to the old world is unlikely. Fossil-fuel producers are being forced to confront their vulnerabilities. ExxonMobil has been ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having been a member since 1928. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia need an oil price of $70-80 a barrel to balance their budgets. Today it is scraping along at just $40.

石油推动20世纪汽车、战争、经济和地缘政治的发展。当前，世界正经受一场加速向新秩序转变的能源危机。今年年初， covid-19重挫全球经济，石油需求下降了五分之一以上，油价暴跌。从那时起，虽有星星点点的经济复苏，但重返之前的生活基本不可能。化石燃料生产商只能直面自己的弱点。埃克森美孚自1928年以来一直是道琼斯工业平均指数（DowJones Industrial Average）成员之一，但今年，它惨遭除名。沙特阿拉伯这样的石油输出国，想要平衡开支，必须保证每桶油价在70-80美元。而现在的油价只能勉强达到每桶40美元。

There have been oil slumps before, but this one is different. As the public, governments and investors wake up to climate change, the clean-energy industry is gaining momentum. Capital markets have shifted: clean-power stocks are up by 45% this year. With interest rates near zero, politicians are backing green-infrastructure plans. America’s Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, wants to spend $2trn decarbonising America’s economy. The European Union has earmarked 30% of its $880bn covid-19 recovery plan for climate measures, and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, used her state-of-the-union address this week to confirm that she wants the EU to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% over 1990 levels in the next decade.

石油价格也曾暴跌，但这次情况不同。随着公众、政府和投资者慢慢认识到气候变化的危害，清洁能源行业的发展愈发蓬勃。资本市场发生了变化：今年，清洁能源股票上涨了45%。由于利率接近于零，政客们都支持绿色基础设施方案。美国民主党总统竞选人乔·拜登希望花费2万亿美元让美国经济脱碳。欧盟已将8800亿美元的covid-19恢复计划资金中的30%用于改善气候，欧盟主席乌苏拉•冯•德莱恩本周在国情咨文中表示，她希望欧盟在未来十年内将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上减少55%。

注：
wake up to sth: to become aware of sth; to realize sth，意识到、认识到

The 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.

21世纪的能源体系有望比石油时代更好地造福人类的健康，并让政治和经济更加稳定。但这种转变不会一帆风顺。万一发生混乱，可能会加剧石油国家的政治和经济的不稳定，并加强了中国对绿色供应链的控制。更危险的是，这种转变可能姗姗来迟。

Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.

如今，85%的能源来自化石燃料。但化石燃料会带来污染。能源相关的温室气体排放占全球总量的三分之二；燃烧化石燃料带来的污染每年使400多万人致死，大部分死者都来自新兴世界的大城市。石油还是政治上的不稳定因子。几十年来，诸如委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯之类的石油国家，无心发展经济，深陷发放救济和任人唯亲的政治泥潭。为了保证石油的安全供应，各个大国争相对石油国家施加影响，尤其是在中东地区，美国大约有6万驻军。化石燃料还会引起经济波动。卡特尔联盟反复无常，石油市场饱受冲击。全球石油储备相对集中，导致石油供应深受地缘政治的牵制。难怪自1970年以来，半年内石油价格涨跌超过30%的情况，多达62次。

注：

be mired in: in a difficult or unpleasant situation that you cannot escape from，处于……困境中

A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.

新能源体系逐渐显现眉目。如果采取大胆行动，太阳能和风能等可再生能源所提供的电力占比将从目前的5%升至2035年的25%，2050年将高达近50%。石油和煤炭用量将下降，但更为清洁的天然气仍将扮演核心角色。这样的能源结构最终将带来巨大效益。如今，气候变化近乎失控，严重的干旱、饥荒、洪灾和大规模的流离失所屡见不鲜。上述能源结构最大优势在于，能源一旦实现去碳化，人类就有望避免上述种种混乱。随着新能源体系日臻成熟，能源供应的地理分布将更为广泛，技术更为多样化，从而促进政治稳定。石油国家将不得不进行自我革新。在这一过程中，政府开始依赖本国公民缴纳的税赋，这将增强某些石油国家的国民代表性（政府将变得更民主）。曾经通过干预石油生产国国内政治寻求能源安全的消费国，将转而努力实现对本国能源行业的合理监管。21世纪的能源体系不会再饱受经济动荡之苦。电价将由竞争和逐渐提高的效率决定，而不再是由几个主要参与者说了算。

Yet even as a better energy system emerges, the threat of a poorly managed transition looms. Two risks stand out. Autocratic China could temporarily gain clout over the global power system because of its dominance in making key components and developing new technologies. Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an “electrostate”. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.

尽管一个更佳的能源体系已出现，转型过渡之际一旦治理不善，也会出现莫大威胁。主要风险有二。因其在制造关键组件和开发新技术方面占据主导地位，中国可能会暂时对全球电力系统形成较大的影响力。当下，中国企业生产出了全球72%的太阳能组件、69%的锂离子电池和45%的风力涡轮机。中国公司还控制着很多矿物提炼产业，这些矿物对清洁能源至关重要，如钴和锂。相比石油国家，中国可能会变成一个“电力国家”。在过去六个月里，中国采取了一系列举措，包括宣布投资电动汽车基础设施和输电系统、在巴基斯坦测试一座核电站以及考虑囤积金属钴。

China’s leverage depends on how fast other economies move . Europe is home to giant developers of wind and solar farms—Orsted, Enel and Iberdrola are building such projects around the world. European firms are leading the race to cut their own emissions, too. America’s trajectory has been affected by the rise of shale oil and gas, which has made it the world’s largest oil producer, and by Republican resistance to decarbonisation measures. If America were to act on climate change—with, say, a carbon tax and new infrastructure—its capital markets, national energy laboratories and universities would make it a formidable green power.

中国的影响力取决于其他经济体的进展。欧洲拥有多个风能、太阳能开发巨头—如丹麦沃旭能源、意大利国家电力公司及西班牙伊贝德拉电力公司。它们正在世界各地建设此类项目。欧洲企业也在带头减排。美国的新能源发展轨迹受到页岩油气的崛起（美国因此成为世界上最大的石油生产国）以及共和党对脱碳措施的抵制的影响。如果美国通过征收碳税、建设新型基础设施等举措来应对气候变化，那么在其资本市场、国家能源实验室和高等院校的作用下，它将成为绿色强国。

The other big risk is the transition of petrostates, which account for 8% of world gdp and nearly 900m citizens. As oil demand dwindles, they will face a vicious fight for market share which will be won by the countries with the cheapest and cleanest crude. Even as they grapple with the growing urgency of economic and political reform, the public resources to pay for it may dwindle. This year Saudi Arabia’s government revenue fell by 49% in the second quarter. A perilous few decades lie ahead. 

另一大风险来自石油国的转型。石油国占世界GDP的8%，拥有近9亿公民。而随着石油需求减少，它们将面临一场争夺市场份额的恶战。谁的价格最低、原油最洁净，谁就能成为赢家。即使这些国家努力应对日益紧迫的经济和政治改革，但为此付出公共资源可能减少。今年第二季度，沙特阿拉伯的政府财政收入下降了49%。未来几十年依然危机重重。

Faced with these dangers, the temptation will be to ease the adjustment, by taking the transition more slowly. However, that would bring about a different, even more destabilising set of climate-related consequences. Instead, as our special report in this issue explains, the investments being contemplated fall drastically short of what is needed to keep temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, let alone the 1.5°C required to limit the environmental, economic and political turmoil of climate change. For example, annual investment in wind and solar capacity needs to be about $750bn, triple recent levels. And if the shift towards fossil-fuel-free renewable energy accelerates, as it must, it will cause even more geopolitical turbulence. The move to a new energy order is vital, but it will be messy. 

面对这些危机，各国可能会放慢转型速度来放缓调整步伐。然而，这又会带来一系列不同的气候挑战，甚至比原先更不稳定。正相反，就像我们在本期特别报告中所说的那样，要将全球气温控制在工业化之前的2°C以内，我们的预期投资还远远不足，更不用说将其降低至1.5°C，以限制气候变化引起的环境、经济和政治动荡了。举个例子，每年风能、太阳能投资需求约为7500亿美元，是近期水平的三倍。如果必须加速从化石燃料向可再生能源的转变，这会加剧地缘政治的动荡。向新的能源秩序转变至关重要，但转变过程却很棘手。

翻译组：

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者

Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书 

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Rex，男，口译硕士，集书狂魔，经学钢粉

Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Phoenix ，女 ， 人口买卖从业者（HR），不拘一格爱玩儿福娃

        2020年因冠状病毒-19对全球经济的打击，石油需求量下降，油价暴跌，世界被卷入一场能源冲击之中。公众、政府和投资者对气候变化觉醒，并因他们大胆的行动，21世纪新能源系统正在浮现，新系统将更利于人类健康，稳定政治，减少经济动荡。

        中国暂时对全球电力系统的影响力，石油输出国间因石油需求量减少争夺市场份额的恶性竞争，将是新能源系统成熟过程中面临的两大危机。欧洲公司带头减排和美国在气候变化问题上采取的行动，各大国对石油国家施加的影响可以在一定程度上缓和风险。新的不同气候挑战、更加动荡的地缘政治，都是转向新的能源系统过程可能会产生的棘手问题。

        读完此文，先喜后忧，为有益于人类生存的能源新系统正在形成而喜，又为在新系统成熟过程中人类可能面临新的不同气候挑战和动荡的地缘政治而忧。还好文章中提到的信息和从书本中了解的地理常识，让我淡定下来。
        文章提到了曾经富可敌国的石油输出国，随着新的替代能源出现和石油消费国开展的减排运动，石油的需求量日益减少，它们面临着经济发展不足和争夺石油市场恶性竞争的双重挑战。西方发达国家则开始增加清洁能源开发投资，开展减排运动，致力于建设新能源系统。石油这一不可再生能源资源从被争夺到最终被舍弃已成定势，这说明能源系统会更新，能满足人类需求对环境危害小的新能源不断被开发利用，传统能源逐渐被淘汰。对传统能源的掌控形成的影响力都是暂时的，开发和利用新能源是人类永远的追求。
        地理常识告诉我们，现代科技固然发达，但对我们赖以生存的地球了解少之又少。地球系统中隐藏着无限的能源，这就使人类开发新能源的探索总能有所获，新型能源总会出现，能源系统也会随之更新。
        综上，对现有能源物资的拥有量能在短暂时间内形成影响力，对更好能源的开发和技术运用才是掌控能源系统的决定力量，因为它着眼于人类生存，立足于地球系统。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

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每日一歌一图||Day452

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491763&idx=2&sn=2a98259e27639e2684b76629b6b57743&chksm=fba3b314ccd43a0240b286f78ead343126ac79f9d8a317f5906f6990bbf82de97a1b7b7b72e9#rd

人生的起起落落都是成长的经验 

很多过往的经历都是途经的驿站 

愿你阅尽世间百态看淡世事冷暖 

---End---

经济学人社论 || 新能源秩序

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491761&idx=1&sn=a845b75b28fdfc1c49318821d59cf13c&chksm=fba3b316ccd43a0010fea09893530aa6bc93808f1691667336dd17cc05ccbe13d62b5bed6437#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

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听力|精读|翻译|词组

‍

The new energy order‍

‍

新能源秩序

英文部分选自经济学人20200918期Leaders版块

The new energy order

新能源秩序

Power in the 21 st century

21世纪能源

Efforts to rein in climate change will up-end the geopolitics of energy

遏制气候变化的努力将颠覆能源地缘政治格局

Oil fuelled the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order. As covid-19 struck the global economy earlier this year, demand for oil dropped by more than a fifth and prices collapsed. Since then there has been a jittery recovery, but a return to the old world is unlikely. Fossil-fuel producers are being forced to confront their vulnerabilities. ExxonMobil has been ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having been a member since 1928. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia need an oil price of $70-80 a barrel to balance their budgets. Today it is scraping along at just $40.

石油推动20世纪汽车、战争、经济和地缘政治的发展。当前，世界正经受一场加速向新秩序转变的能源危机。今年年初， covid-19重挫全球经济，石油需求下降了五分之一以上，油价暴跌。从那时起，虽有星星点点的经济复苏，但重返之前的生活基本不可能。化石燃料生产商只能直面自己的弱点。埃克森美孚自1928年以来一直是道琼斯工业平均指数（DowJones Industrial Average）成员之一，但今年，它惨遭除名。沙特阿拉伯这样的石油输出国，想要平衡开支，必须保证每桶油价在70-80美元。而现在的油价只能勉强达到每桶40美元。

There have been oil slumps before, but this one is different. As the public, governments and investors wake up to climate change, the clean-energy industry is gaining momentum. Capital markets have shifted: clean-power stocks are up by 45% this year. With interest rates near zero, politicians are backing green-infrastructure plans. America’s Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, wants to spend $2trn decarbonising America’s economy. The European Union has earmarked 30% of its $880bn covid-19 recovery plan for climate measures, and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, used her state-of-the-union address this week to confirm that she wants the EU to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% over 1990 levels in the next decade.

石油价格也曾暴跌，但这次情况不同。随着公众、政府和投资者慢慢认识到气候变化的危害，清洁能源行业的发展愈发蓬勃。资本市场发生了变化：今年，清洁能源股票上涨了45%。由于利率接近于零，政客们都支持绿色基础设施方案。美国民主党总统竞选人乔·拜登希望花费2万亿美元让美国经济脱碳。欧盟已将8800亿美元的covid-19恢复计划资金中的30%用于改善气候，欧盟主席乌苏拉•冯•德莱恩本周在国情咨文中表示，她希望欧盟在未来十年内将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上减少55%。

注：
wake up to sth: to become aware of sth; to realize sth，意识到、认识到

The 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.

21世纪的能源体系有望比石油时代更好地造福人类的健康，并让政治和经济更加稳定。但这种转变不会一帆风顺。万一发生混乱，可能会加剧石油国家的政治和经济的不稳定，并加强了中国对绿色供应链的控制。更危险的是，这种转变可能姗姗来迟。

Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.

如今，85%的能源来自化石燃料。但化石燃料会带来污染。能源相关的温室气体排放占全球总量的三分之二；燃烧化石燃料带来的污染每年使400多万人致死，大部分死者都来自新兴世界的大城市。石油还是政治上的不稳定因子。几十年来，诸如委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯之类的石油国家，无心发展经济，深陷发放救济和任人唯亲的政治泥潭。为了保证石油的安全供应，各个大国争相对石油国家施加影响，尤其是在中东地区，美国大约有6万驻军。化石燃料还会引起经济波动。卡特尔联盟反复无常，石油市场饱受冲击。全球石油储备相对集中，导致石油供应深受地缘政治的牵制。难怪自1970年以来，半年内石油价格涨跌超过30%的情况，多达62次。

注：

be mired in: in a difficult or unpleasant situation that you cannot escape from，处于……困境中

A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.

新能源体系逐渐显现眉目。如果采取大胆行动，太阳能和风能等可再生能源所提供的电力占比将从目前的5%升至2035年的25%，2050年将高达近50%。石油和煤炭用量将下降，但更为清洁的天然气仍将扮演核心角色。这样的能源结构最终将带来巨大效益。如今，气候变化近乎失控，严重的干旱、饥荒、洪灾和大规模的流离失所屡见不鲜。上述能源结构最大优势在于，能源一旦实现去碳化，人类就有望避免上述种种混乱。随着新能源体系日臻成熟，能源供应的地理分布将更为广泛，技术更为多样化，从而促进政治稳定。石油国家将不得不进行自我革新。在这一过程中，政府开始依赖本国公民缴纳的税赋，这将增强某些石油国家的国民代表性（政府将变得更民主）。曾经通过干预石油生产国国内政治寻求能源安全的消费国，将转而努力实现对本国能源行业的合理监管。21世纪的能源体系不会再饱受经济动荡之苦。电价将由竞争和逐渐提高的效率决定，而不再是由几个主要参与者说了算。

Yet even as a better energy system emerges, the threat of a poorly managed transition looms. Two risks stand out. Autocratic China could temporarily gain clout over the global power system because of its dominance in making key components and developing new technologies. Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an “electrostate”. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.

尽管一个更佳的能源体系已出现，转型过渡之际一旦治理不善，也会出现莫大威胁。主要风险有二。因其在制造关键组件和开发新技术方面占据主导地位，中国可能会暂时对全球电力系统形成较大的影响力。当下，中国企业生产出了全球72%的太阳能组件、69%的锂离子电池和45%的风力涡轮机。中国公司还控制着很多矿物提炼产业，这些矿物对清洁能源至关重要，如钴和锂。相比石油国家，中国可能会变成一个“电力国家”。在过去六个月里，中国采取了一系列举措，包括宣布投资电动汽车基础设施和输电系统、在巴基斯坦测试一座核电站以及考虑囤积金属钴。

China’s leverage depends on how fast other economies move . Europe is home to giant developers of wind and solar farms—Orsted, Enel and Iberdrola are building such projects around the world. European firms are leading the race to cut their own emissions, too. America’s trajectory has been affected by the rise of shale oil and gas, which has made it the world’s largest oil producer, and by Republican resistance to decarbonisation measures. If America were to act on climate change—with, say, a carbon tax and new infrastructure—its capital markets, national energy laboratories and universities would make it a formidable green power.

中国的影响力取决于其他经济体的进展。欧洲拥有多个风能、太阳能开发巨头—如丹麦沃旭能源、意大利国家电力公司及西班牙伊贝德拉电力公司。它们正在世界各地建设此类项目。欧洲企业也在带头减排。美国的新能源发展轨迹受到页岩油气的崛起（美国因此成为世界上最大的石油生产国）以及共和党对脱碳措施的抵制的影响。如果美国通过征收碳税、建设新型基础设施等举措来应对气候变化，那么在其资本市场、国家能源实验室和高等院校的作用下，它将成为绿色强国。

The other big risk is the transition of petrostates, which account for 8% of world gdp and nearly 900m citizens. As oil demand dwindles, they will face a vicious fight for market share which will be won by the countries with the cheapest and cleanest crude. Even as they grapple with the growing urgency of economic and political reform, the public resources to pay for it may dwindle. This year Saudi Arabia’s government revenue fell by 49% in the second quarter. A perilous few decades lie ahead. 

另一大风险来自石油国的转型。石油国占世界GDP的8%，拥有近9亿公民。而随着石油需求减少，它们将面临一场争夺市场份额的恶战。谁的价格最低、原油最洁净，谁就能成为赢家。即使这些国家努力应对日益紧迫的经济和政治改革，但为此付出公共资源可能减少。今年第二季度，沙特阿拉伯的政府财政收入下降了49%。未来几十年依然危机重重。

Faced with these dangers, the temptation will be to ease the adjustment, by taking the transition more slowly. However, that would bring about a different, even more destabilising set of climate-related consequences. Instead, as our special report in this issue explains, the investments being contemplated fall drastically short of what is needed to keep temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, let alone the 1.5°C required to limit the environmental, economic and political turmoil of climate change. For example, annual investment in wind and solar capacity needs to be about $750bn, triple recent levels. And if the shift towards fossil-fuel-free renewable energy accelerates, as it must, it will cause even more geopolitical turbulence. The move to a new energy order is vital, but it will be messy. 

面对这些危机，各国可能会放慢转型速度来放缓调整步伐。然而，这又会带来一系列不同的气候挑战，甚至比原先更不稳定。正相反，就像我们在本期特别报告中所说的那样，要将全球气温控制在工业化之前的2°C以内，我们的预期投资还远远不足，更不用说将其降低至1.5°C，以限制气候变化引起的环境、经济和政治动荡了。举个例子，每年风能、太阳能投资需求约为7500亿美元，是近期水平的三倍。如果必须加速从化石燃料向可再生能源的转变，这会加剧地缘政治的动荡。向新的能源秩序转变至关重要，但转变过程却很棘手。

翻译组：

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者

Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书 

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Rex，男，口译硕士，集书狂魔，经学钢粉

Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Phoenix ，女 ， 人口买卖从业者（HR），不拘一格爱玩儿福娃

        2020年因冠状病毒-19对全球经济的打击，石油需求量下降，油价暴跌，世界被卷入一场能源冲击之中。公众、政府和投资者对气候变化觉醒，并因他们大胆的行动，21世纪新能源系统正在浮现，新系统将更利于人类健康，稳定政治，减少经济动荡。

        中国暂时对全球电力系统的影响力，石油输出国间因石油需求量减少争夺市场份额的恶性竞争，将是新能源系统成熟过程中面临的两大危机。欧洲公司带头减排和美国在气候变化问题上采取的行动，各大国对石油国家施加的影响可以在一定程度上缓和风险。新的不同气候挑战、更加动荡的地缘政治，都是转向新的能源系统过程可能会产生的棘手问题。

        读完此文，先喜后忧，为有益于人类生存的能源新系统正在形成而喜，又为在新系统成熟过程中人类可能面临新的不同气候挑战和动荡的地缘政治而忧。还好文章中提到的信息和从书本中了解的地理常识，让我淡定下来。
        文章提到了曾经富可敌国的石油输出国，随着新的替代能源出现和石油消费国开展的减排运动，石油的需求量日益减少，它们面临着经济发展不足和争夺石油市场恶性竞争的双重挑战。西方发达国家则开始增加清洁能源开发投资，开展减排运动，致力于建设新能源系统。石油这一不可再生能源资源从被争夺到最终被舍弃已成定势，这说明能源系统会更新，能满足人类需求对环境危害小的新能源不断被开发利用，传统能源逐渐被淘汰。对传统能源的掌控形成的影响力都是暂时的，开发和利用新能源是人类永远的追求。
        地理常识告诉我们，现代科技固然发达，但对我们赖以生存的地球了解少之又少。地球系统中隐藏着无限的能源，这就使人类开发新能源的探索总能有所获，新型能源总会出现，能源系统也会随之更新。
        综上，对现有能源物资的拥有量能在短暂时间内形成影响力，对更好能源的开发和技术运用才是掌控能源系统的决定力量，因为它着眼于人类生存，立足于地球系统。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

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2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

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原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491761&idx=2&sn=6188bc02d42fd941ec4c3121ec002f18&chksm=fba3b316ccd43a000543625e7eba6108ba189f0acdc6719c5dea98d8b0db14ef0356678714a4#rd

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本周翻译预告

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外刊打卡训练营

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卫报讣告 || 全球知名教育学家肯·罗宾逊爵士

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491726&idx=1&sn=ccfdb8c8dcd65028deb7312cd899ab6b&chksm=fba3b329ccd43a3f3be7d3ec990eef35c4035025076ec574d8b1ae31ad9f7f55fea9d09ab29a#rd

1

导读

肯·罗宾逊：学校扼杀创造力

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Obituary：Sir Ken Robinson

讣告： 肯·罗宾逊爵士

英文部分选自卫报讣告

Educationist who argued that children’s creativity is stifled by school systems that prioritise academic achievement

他是一位教育家，认为以学业成绩为首的学校体系扼杀了孩子们的创造力。

The educationist Sir Ken Robinson, proponent of the encouragement of creativity among children, who has died aged 70 of cancer, was largely ignored by politicians of both main parties as he insisted that the policy of successive UK governments, that literacy and numeracy should predominate, was a false priority. As he told interviewers: “That’s like saying let’s make the cake and if it’s all right we’ll put the eggs in.”

教育学家肯·罗宾逊爵士（于2020年8月21日）因癌症去世，享年70岁。罗宾逊爵士（生前）极力支持培养孩子们创造力，坚持认为英国历届政府把读写和运算能力作为教学重点的政策是错误的，因此一直被英国主要政党所忽视。正如他接受采访时所说：“这就像是说来我们一起来做蛋糕吧。如果没问题，我们就把鸡蛋放进去。”

Reputedly one lesson can change the course of a pupil’s career – Robinson became an exemplar of the much rarer idea that one speech can change a teacher’s whole trajectory. It was an off-the-cuff, 19-minute address without notes entitled  Do Schools Kill Creativity? at a TED (technology, entertainment and design) educational conference in California in 2006 that propelled him to something approaching worldwide celebrity within and beyond education.

众所周知，（老师的）一堂课可能会改变学生的发展轨迹——而老师的教学生涯因为一个演讲而改变要罕见得多，而罗宾逊则成就了这样一个典范。这是他于2006年在加利福尼亚举行的TED（技术，娱乐和设计）教育大会上做的一个长达19分钟的即兴脱稿演讲，题为《学校扼杀了创造力吗？》，。正因这一个演讲，他一举成为了教育界内外的全球名人。

His wry and witty extempore style, honed in Liverpool, was characteristically engaging. Subsequently posted on YouTube, the talk has reputedly been viewed by 380 million people in 160 countries and has influenced schools around the world.

他在利物浦练就的正话反说又妙趣横生的即兴演讲风格，极具特色又引人入胜。这个演讲后来上传到Youtube网站，有来自160个国家高达3.8亿人次所观看，也影响了世界各地的学校。

In that speech, and at other less noticed conferences and less well attended seminars over many years, Robinson argued that children do not grow into artistic creativity but are educated out of it by school systems that prioritise academic achievement and conformity instead of liberating imagination and initiative.

不管是在那个演讲里，还是多年来在其它不那么知名的各个会议和研讨会上，他都坚持认为，学校的教育体系以提高学业成绩和强化规则意识为主而不是解放想象力和提高积极主动性的做法非但没有培养反而还扼杀了孩子们的艺术创造力。

He told the audience in 2006: “I believe our only hope for the future is to adopt a new concept of human ecology, one in which we start to reconstitute our conception of the richness of human capacity. Our education system has mined our minds in the way we strip-mined the earth for a particular commodity. We have to rethink the fundamental principles in which we are educating our children.”

2006年，面对听众，他说道：“我相信我们未来唯一的希望是采用一套全新的人类生态理念。这套理念能重构我们对人类能力多样性的概念。一直以来，我们的教育体系开发大脑的方式，就像露天采矿一样，简单粗暴。我们必须重新思考教育孩子的基本原则”。

Understandably, this was much more enticing to the education profession than it was to government ministers, but it was based not on a single speech but Robinson’s whole career in academic education, which culminated in a professorship at Warwick University (1989-2001), before he became a senior adviser to the J Paul Getty Trust in Los Angeles.

可以理解的是，这些话对于教育界人士来说，显然要比对政府部长们的吸引力更大。但是，对罗宾逊而言，这不仅仅只是演讲词，而是基于整个学术教育生涯的总结。他在教育领域的研究成果使他成为了华威大学的教授（1989-2001），之后他去了洛杉矶保罗盖蒂信托基金做高级顾问。

注：

entice: attract or tempt by offering pleasure or advantage 引诱

If the argument was that individual creativity was stifled by the system, it was less easy to discern how that might be recreated within a state education with its emphasis on attainment targets and examination results. The Blair government at least invited him to chair an inquiry in 1997, which produced a report, All Our Futures, but then largely ignored it; while Michael Gove as education secretary and his special adviser Dominic Cummings chose snide derision to dismiss the establishment “blob” of which they felt he was clearly a part. Robinson himself said in an interview with the Independent in 2018: “If I didn’t piss somebody off I’d probably be doing something wrong, but I don’t set out to do it.”

如果说教育体系扼杀了个人创造力，那么在以目标成就和考试结果为重点的教育现状下，找出重塑这种创造力的方法则更为棘手。1997年，布莱尔政府至少曾邀请他展开一项调查，并形成了一份报告，名为《我们的未来》，虽然后来并未引起重视；而教育部长迈克尔·戈夫（Michael Gove）和他的特别顾问多米尼克·卡明斯（Dominic Cummings）则把他视为利益既得者的一员而冷嘲热讽，视而不见。2018年，罗宾逊在接受《独立报》采访时提到：“如果我没有激怒一些人，那我才可能在犯错。但我本意并非如此”。

注：

1. stifle: restrain (a reaction) or stop oneself acting on 镇压，扼杀，阻止

2. snide: derogatory or mocking in an indirect way挖苦的

3. derision: contemptuous ridicule or mockery嘲笑

4. blob: A group of similar things or people positioned or occurring closely together

5. piss off: 激怒

He told Kirsty Young on Desert Island Discs in 2013 that schools should have discretion to develop creativity: “Don’t treat children as the same or over-programme them, they find their talents by trying things out.”

2013年，他在荒岛电台（Desert Island Discs）对柯斯蒂·杨（Kirsty Young）说，在培养创造力方面，学校应当有自主权，孩子不能一概而论，也不要过度塑造。让他们在尝试中发现自己的天赋。

But Robinson admitted on the programme that he had benefited from an academic education system and insisted he was not opposed to a national curriculum, but just wanted one with different priorities and parity of esteem between core subjects and artistic ones such as dance.

但在电视节目中，罗宾逊承认，自己曾从学术教育体系中获益，因此他并不反对全国性的课程安排，只是希望这种体系能够有不同侧重，舞蹈等人文科目能够和心科目一样被同样看待。

The fifth of seven children of Ethel (nee Allen) and James Robinson, he was born in an impoverished household in Liverpool, close to Everton’s Goodison Park football ground. His father worked at various jobs, including running a pub and as a docker, and was left paraplegic after his back was broken in a dockside accident when Ken was nine. He himself spent eight months in hospital after being diagnosed with polio at the age of four, thereafter walking with a limp, ending any chance of playing for the local club, though his brother Neil did so.

罗宾逊出生在利物浦埃弗顿的古迪逊公园足球场附近一个贫穷家庭，是家里七个孩子中的老五。他的父亲詹姆斯·罗宾逊从事过各种不同工作，经营过酒吧，也当过码头工人。在他九岁的时候，父亲在一次码头事故中背部受伤，从此瘫痪。他本人在四岁时被诊断出患有小儿麻痹症，并在医院待了八个月，从此他只能一瘸一拐地走路，不能像他的哥哥尼尔一样做为球员加入当地俱乐部。

Instead, Robinson’s parents encouraged him academically. He was initially educated at a special school for children with disabilities but passed the 11-plus and attended Liverpool Collegiate school, proceeding to study for a Bachelor of Education degree at Bretton Hall College, west Yorkshire, founded by the educationist Alec Clegg, which specialised in the arts. It had a formative effect on his career and he went on to complete a doctorate in drama and theatre in education at London University.

父母转而鼓励罗宾逊在学业上多下功夫。他一开始在一所为残障儿童开设的特殊学校上学，但顺利通过了中学入学考试，随后就读于利物浦联合中学（Liverpool Collegiate school），并在西约克郡布雷顿霍尔学院继续攻读教育学士学位，该学院的特色是人文教育，由教育学家阿莱克·克莱格创立。这段学习经历对他的职业生涯影响很大，他之后又在伦敦大学继续攻读了话剧与戏剧教育博士学位。

注：
11-plus: Eleven-plus, in England, competitive examination given between primary and secondary school at about age 11.

His subsequent career focused on the arts in education, working on a schools’ council project which became his first book, Learning Through Drama (1977), and running courses for teachers. In the early 1980s he was lead researcher and author of the Arts in Schools project for the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and after that became the director of the Arts in Schools project, which in turn helped to shape the national curriculum after the 1988 Baker Act.

他随后的职业生涯紧紧围绕人文教育。他加入了一个学校理事会的项目，由此撰写了他的第一本书《通过戏剧学习（1977）》，并为教师们开设课程。20世纪80年代初期，他担任古尔班基安基金会旗下“人文科学在学校”项目的首席研究员并著有项目同名图书，随后成为该项目负责人，该项目在1988年《贝克法案》出台之后又帮助制定了国家课程。

He founded and chaired Artswork, the national youth arts development agency and founded and co-edited Arts Express magazine, before joining the staff at Warwick. The invitation to join the Getty Trust in California came in early January 2001: “It was cold and wet – what would you do? We went as fast as we could.”

在华威大学任教以前，他建立了一个国际青年艺术发展机构“艺术社”，担任主席，还创立了《艺术快讯》杂志，并担任该杂志的联合主编。2001年1月初，加州的盖蒂基金会送来了入会邀请函：“那会儿（英国）又冷又湿——你会怎么办？我们立马动身了。”

Robinson was the author of several more books, including Out of Our Minds: Learning to Be Creative (2001), Finding Your Element (2014) and Creative Schools (2015). He was knighted in 2003.

罗宾逊另外还著有好几本书，包括《超脱意识之外：学习创造》（2001），《发现天赋之旅》（2014）和《创学堂》（2015）。2003年，他获封为爵士。

Robinson’s success at the TED conference, where he spoke three times over a number of years, propelled him into a different financial and celebrity league. His friend and agent Brendan Barns said: “What really set Ken apart from other speakers and educationists was his ability instantly to create rapport with his audiences. He made everyone feel he was talking to them personally.”

多年来，罗宾逊在TED大会上演讲过三次，收获了巨大的成功，使他进入到另一个金融和名仕的圈子内。他的朋友兼经纪人布兰登·巴恩斯说道：“肯和其他演讲者、教育家们最不同的是他能很快和观众打成一片。肯让每个人都觉得他在跟自己单独对话。”

Robinson met Marie-Therese Watts, known as Terry, while giving a course in Liverpool in 1977. They married in 1982 and had two children, James and Kate. The couple returned to live in London last year to be near Kate and her baby daughter, Adeline.Terry and their children survive him.

1977年在利物浦教书的时候，罗宾逊认识了玛丽-特雷泽·华兹，大家都叫她泰瑞。他们1982年结婚并且育有两名子女，詹姆斯和凯特。去年，罗宾逊夫妇回到伦敦居住，以便离凯特和她的小女儿阿戴琳近一些。

泰瑞和他们的孩子都健在。

Kenneth Robinson, educationist, born 4 March 1950; died 21 August 2020

肯尼斯·罗宾逊，教育家，生于1950年3月4日，逝于2020年8月21日。

翻译组：

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Yvonne，努力中的口译新人

Lucia，英语专业学生，经济学人爱好者

Mosy，绘本、演讲、戏剧英文教育践行者

校对组：

Mona，悦读悦译，以译会友

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人

我为什么当老师

作为一位立志成为最好的幼少儿英语老师的潘老师，我青少年最惨痛的回忆，也来源于老师。

那是我的初中老师，他让我在初三的时候度日如年。

他性别歧视，在他的口中有一个群体叫做“小个子女生”，而这些女生自然是学不好数学的，他们很笨。（这些人中后来出了一位中科院数学系女博士）。

他成绩歧视，成绩好的同学和成绩不好的同学，在他眼里，就不是一个等级的人类，从纪律到卫生到问问题的态度，区分的清清楚楚明明白白，生怕你误会了自己的所在的区域。

他极度自私，考初中的时候为了自己的省重点公费达成率，哪怕你明明可以自费去更好的学校，他也逼着你考公费的差一点儿的学校，因为这样更有把握，至于会不会耽误你的人生，根本不在他考虑的范围之内。

这些事情我现在想来历历在目，很多人会说，真正强大的人会选择原谅，我现在是否足够强大我不敢说，但是我保证，我一辈子都不会原谅他，你不是我，不要轻易淡化我的伤。而我不原谅的方式，是要向他证明，老师可以不用这么做。

老师要控制自己的私心。你的教学内容，是为了孩子好，还是为了自己好，这两者很容易混淆，但是却是最需要分清。学生某一次考试是99还是100对于老师来说可能有kpi的影响，可是从孩子终身学习而言，这一分的差别微不足道，所以教学安排上应该追求满分的虚荣，还是好的学习习惯的养成，探索精神的培养，课外知识的补充，孰轻孰重，老师心中要有一把尺。我曾经的一个学生，小学五年级，英语考试从来拿不了满分，可是他的课外阅读书是原版哈利波特，因为喜欢，所以阅读，而不是为了成绩，谁又能说他英语学的不好呢？

老师要锻炼自己的细心。作为老师，我们需要的是把世界带到孩子的面前。可是如果我们的世界只有一个标准答案，那么我们带给孩子的最多只是一张地图而已。不要轻易地给孩子下定义，没有两条同样的河流，同样也没有两个一样的孩子。每个孩子都有自己的闪光点，淘金者没有找到黄金，自然是淘金者的问题，黄金一直就在那里。我之前遇到过一个小女生，每次上课学的内容，回家爸爸妈妈问起来都说不知道，完成作业非常吃力，后来我发现她对歌曲非常敏感，于是每次上课学的内容我都努力找到一首对应的歌曲给她，让她回家多听，令人惊喜的事情发生了，以后再问她所学的知识，不但能够答出来，她还可以唱出来，这世上没有学不会的孩子，只有不会教的老师。

老师要培养自己的爱心。这个世界上没有一个孩子是不听话的，只要他足够喜欢你。而让孩子喜欢你的最好方法，是要时时刻刻告诉他，你有多么喜欢他。我曾经遇到过一个小男生，他第一天上我课的时候很认真的告诉我，“老师，我学的很慢的，我在学校就学不好，我很淘气的，我不是一个好学生”。我听后没说话，但是从第一次课开始，我就不断的告诉他我有多喜欢他，他的新发型，新书包，他的阅读，他的作业，他的举手，他的发音......我用我后面每一次课的每一个表扬，每一声赞美，努力向他证明：我不在乎你在学校是“好学生”还是“坏学生”，在Vicky这里，你就是好孩子，永远值得我所有的喜欢。再后来，这个经常被找家长的小朋友，会非常自豪地对别人说：英语可是我的强项呢！老师天然就是要爱学生的，不因为他学得好，不因为他不淘气，不因为他讨好你，只因为，他是你的学生。

我们为什么要当老师？黄埔军校有一句话：贪生怕死请往他处，升官发财莫入此门。当老师贪生怕死说的太大了，可是升官发财，确实很难，当然老师应该有足够维持体面生活的薪资，这样才能后顾无忧地专研教学。

可是最最关键的，是我们这份职业承担的是关系孩子一生的启蒙，是可能影响他未来的人生，那么我们就有必要让自己做得更好。人说幸运的人一生都在被童年治愈，而我相信，好的老师，有能力治愈童年。

“果实的事业是尊贵的，花朵的事业是甜美的，我却愿做叶的事业，只为给你一片绿荫。”与我众多可爱的同业诸君共勉。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day451

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491726&idx=2&sn=c869d39c700a6f4064dbc67b9ae392e2&chksm=fba3b329ccd43a3faa1ec2144183fdc0fdfa77c5f62fcc84f720d819de6abc2693c339f054d8#rd

在这个世界上，

不是所有合理的和美好的都能按照自己的愿望存在或实现。

---End---

经济学人科技 || 与火共存

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491715&idx=1&sn=c284c14b6545f740e59eb4f2763613de&chksm=fba3b324ccd43a3296e26d4558db8149bd98ff1fb9cb1c403a22a9269e38437d1a28eff1097e#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

step by step，男，爱翻译爱研究的理工男，经济学人铁粉，二笔二口冲刺者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组 

Learning to Live With It

与火共存

英文部分选自经济学人20200911期科技版块

Learning to Live With It

与火共存

Wildfires will be more common in a warming world

世界变暖致野火频发

Clever design of buildings and infrastructure can limit the damage

巧妙设计房屋和建筑，减少损失

CALIFORNIA BURNS every year. But amid a record-breaking heatwave, 2020 is the fieriest year yet (see map). As The Economist went to press, more than 7,600 fires had burned over 2.5m acres (1m hectares) of land. The season still has months to run.

加利福尼亚每年都发生火灾。但在前所未有的热浪席卷下，今年是野火烧得最旺的一年（如图）。《经济学人》付印时，加州已发生7600多次火灾，烧毁超过250万英亩（100万公顷）土地。野火将持续数月。

That fits a long-term trend, for California’s wildfires are getting steadily worse. Blazes in the 2010s burned 6.8m acres on average, up from 3.3m acres in the 1990s. The fire season lasts nearly three months longer now than it did in the 1970s. Over the past decade, the state has spent an average of $3.7bn a year fighting fires. Add the cost of rebuilding, treating casualties and restoration, says Headwaters Economics, a think-tank, and that is perhaps a tenth of the total cost. Although smaller than this year’s, the 2018 fire season was particularly destructive. It killed 100 people and burned tens of thousands of buildings.

这反映了一种长期趋势，加州的野火越烧越旺。过去10年，平均每年野火烧毁680万英亩土地，而在20世纪90年代，这个数字只有330万英亩。如今的火灾季比20世纪70年代长3个月左右。过去10年，加州政府平均每年耗资37亿美元用于灭火。而据智库Headwaters Economics估计，算上重建、修复和安置伤亡人员的费用，37亿可能只占总支出的十分之一。2018年的野火规模比今年小，但同样造成了毁灭性的后果。100人葬身火海，成千上万栋房屋被烧毁。

The reason is a double whammy of climate change and development. More homes are being built next to forests, in what experts call the “wildland-urban interface” (WUI). A 2018 study estimated that roughly a third of American homes were in the WUI. The problem is acute in California. Pricey housing has pushed people onto cheaper land close to the wilderness.

气候变化和社会发展是导致加州火情加剧的两大元凶。越来越多的房屋建于森林旁，专家称之为森林-城镇交界域（WUI）。2018年的一项研究估计，美国约有三分之一的房屋建于森林-城镇交界域内。这个比例在加州更高，高昂的房价迫使人们搬到房价便宜、靠近荒郊的地区。

Whammy : an event with a powerful and unpleasant effect.

注：Wildland-urban interface (WUI): 森林-城镇交界域，简称交界域，是指无人居住的荒地与人类开发的土地之间的过渡区。距离该地域0.5英里以内的社区也可能包括在内。这些被荒野包围的土地和社区存在山火的风险。

At the same time, climate change is extending the dry season, which stores up fuel for fires. In California, a chronic “megadrought”—in which dry years become more common and wet ones scarcer—is making matters even worse. One paper, citing tree-ring data, concluded that the drought, which started around 2000, is the second-worst in the past 1,200 years. It, too, has been linked to climate change.

与此同时，气候变化导致旱季延长，干旱也助长了山火。在加州，长期“特大干旱”（在特大干旱周期中，旱年更常见，润年更稀少）让情况变得更糟。有论文引用树木年轮数据并得出结论，这场始于2000年的干旱是过去1200年来的第二大旱灾，其成因与气候变化有关。

Since neither trend shows much sign of reversing, people on America’s west coast will have to learn to co-exist with more, and more frequent, fires. “It’s not that different to building on an earthquake-prone landscape,” says Max Moritz, a wildfire expert at the University of California at Santa Barbara. Buildings and communities can be built in such a way that fires sweep through them—or better still, around them—leaving them more-or-less intact. Infrastructure can be made more resilient. And forests themselves can be managed to reduce the risk of catastrophic blazes.

由于气候变化和加州山火都没有好转的迹象，美国西海岸的居民只能试着与日益频发的火灾共处。加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校的野火专家马克斯·莫里茨（Max Moritz）表示，“这就如同在地震多发地带上建造房屋。”建筑物和社区应该在大火掠过，或者火势蔓延至周围后，仍能大致完好无损。基础设施也应做好防火建设，同时要加强对森林的管理，降低发生灾难性大火的风险。

Start with the buildings. Most buildings burn not when the flaming front of a fire reaches them, but when embers (also called “firebrands”) thrown off by distant fires land on them. A 2010 paper tracked how a 1991 fire in Oakland Hills burned steadily in a cluster of houses before embers were lifted by strong winds, landing on other houses hundreds of metres away and igniting more than a dozen new “spot fires”. Estimates of the share of buildings lost to firebrands vary, but all are large—between 60% and 90%.

先从建筑物说起。大多数建筑并非在大火靠近时着火，而是在远处大火余烬飘落时。2010年的一篇论文追踪了1991年奥克兰山大火，那场大火持续肆虐，一步步吞噬公寓楼，强风刮走余烬，落在几百米外的房屋上，又点燃了十几处新的房屋。被大火烧毁的建筑物比重不尽相同，但都占大部分，在60%到90%之间。

Clever design can help make buildings resistant to fires that spread in this way. Materials such as concrete, adobe or stucco are a better bet than cladding walls in flammable wood. Some composite panels promise to hold back the flames for two hours or more. Gaps under roofs can be blocked up, to stop embers drifting in. Vents can be covered with mesh, or eliminated entirely. Heat-resistant windows, which are less likely to break, help keep firebrands out. Experts recommend a five-foot “non-combustible zone” around the base of homes.

巧妙的设计能让建筑物避免因余烬而导致的起火。用混凝土、黏土或灰泥等材料砌的墙比木墙防火效果更佳。某些合成板有望将火焰阻挡两小时甚至更长。还能通过堵住屋顶下的缝隙，防止余烬飘进屋内。通风孔可用网覆盖，或者干脆堵住。耐高温窗户不易碎，还能够阻挡余烬。专家建议在家中地基周围设置五英尺高的“不可燃区”。

Neighbourhoods can be toughened up, too. In a report published in April, Dr Moritz and his colleague Van Bustic at the University of California in Berkeley describe how entire communities can be planned to resist fires. Building near water is one tactic. But moats are not the only defence. Open agricultural lands—including the vineyards common in the Napa Valley—can offer a useful buffer, too. Even golf courses can serve as firebreaks. Rather than lining the greens with homes, Dr Moritz suggests doing the opposite, and putting houses in the middle.

社区的防火措施也能进一步改善。莫里茨博士（Dr. Moritz）和他加州大学伯克利分校的同事范·布斯迪克在今年4月发表了一则报告，讲述了从社区整体层面抵御火灾的方法。建筑靠近水源是策略之一，但并不是唯一的方法。开放式农业用地（包括纳帕谷随处可见的葡萄园）也能有效抵御火灾。高尔夫球场能用作隔离防火带。莫里茨博士建议，不应该把房屋与绿地并排，而应将房屋置于其中。

Burying electricity lines can help avoid blackouts, as well as subsequent costly rebuilding. It can also prevent power lines themselves sparking fires. That is a persistent problem in California, and one which has cost Pacific Gas & Electric, a utility, billions in settlements. Australia, which also suffers from wildfires, has experimented with bunkers specially designed to withstand flames for an hour or more—long enough for a flaming front to move through. These offer a last-resort option for trapped residents.

将电线埋在地底下能避免火灾导致的断电，减少灾后重建费用，还能避免输电线本身起火。在加州这是个长期问题，太平洋煤气电力公司（一家公共事业单位）因此耗资数十亿。同样受山火所困的澳大利亚特地建立了地堡，能抵御火势蔓延一小时以上，这期间足以让火焰穿过这片区域。地堡为被困的居民提供了最后的庇护地。

Sparking a change

做出改变

But while options exist, adoption is slow. Firewise USA, a volunteer fire-resistance project, was launched in 2002. Nearly two decades later, only around 1,500 communities in America have signed up. One obstacle is the constant maintenance that must be carried out. Vegetation must be regularly thinned. Someone must take responsibility for empty sites. It can be hard to cajole second-home owners, who may visit only rarely, into doing their bit.

尽管有改善措施，但措施的实施速度缓慢。公益防火项目Firewise USA于2002年设立，快20年过去了，美国只有约1500个社区加入了该项目。其中一个阻碍项是设施需要长期维护，植被需要按期修剪，空置地也要有人管理。而且劝说拥有两套房的居民贡献力量并不容易，他们在第二所房子里住的不多。

Homeowners and contractors often assume that fire-resistant buildings are more expensive, although Headwaters Economics reckons that, for newly built houses, the costs can be comparable. And fire-safe homes often come with secondary advantages, such as greater energy efficiency, which make them cheaper over time. But existing buildings need retrofitting, which comes with a heftier price tag. There are few carrots, and few sticks. The insurance industry offers little relief to those who fire-proof their homes. California’s legal requirements for building in the WUI do not apply to existing buildings. Fire-hazard maps are inadequate.

房屋主人和建筑承包商通常认为，防火型房屋造价更昂贵。但据Headwaters Economics估计，对于新建房屋，防火型和普通型的价格相差无几。此外，防火型房屋还有其他好处，如能耗更低，使得它们的长期使用价格更底。但将现有房屋改建成防火型，成本则很高。而且也没有相应的奖惩措施。保险公司提供给防火改建户主的补偿也很少。加州的防火法律并不适用于WUI区域内已有的建筑。另外，火灾隐患分布图也不全面。

Perhaps the biggest problem is cultural. “We see the impacts of fires, then turn around and rebuild largely in the same way and the same place, but expect things to go differently next time,” says David Shew, a former staff chief at the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “That’s the definition of insanity.” Mr Shew has seen resistance to change at all levels, from homeowners who have strong opinions about materials and aesthetics, to a hidebound construction industry, and even among firefighters themselves.

也许最大的问题是文化层面。“我们见识了火灾的威力，但转头又像从前一样在老地方重建家园，抱着侥幸心理期待下一次灾难不要降临到自己头上”，加州林业和消防局前官员David Shew表示，“这真的很荒唐。”一直以来Shew目睹了不同群体对改变现状的抗拒，对房屋材料和审美固执己见的房主、守旧的建筑行业从业者，还有消防员。

Still, the measures work. New homes that have adhered to fire codes are far more likely to survive. And some communities are taking it upon themselves to be fire-smart. Circle Oaks is a small community of 180 houses dotted across a steep slope surrounded by tall oaks and madrones. In 2001, recognising their vulnerability, residents began investing around $50,000 to $90,000 each year into a fire-mitigation strategy. Vegetation is regularly cut back, manually or by goats. Extra water is stored on site, ready for firefighting, and hydrants have been upgraded. The residents conduct frequent fire-safety assessments.

尽管如此，防火措施确实有用。按照防火规范新建的房屋在火灾中幸免于难的概率更大。有些社区开始主动提升应对火灾的能力。Circle Oaks社区有180户居民，他们遍布在一个陡坡上，四周被高大的橡树和太平洋乔鹃木包围。2001年，在意识到该社区是火灾高危区后，社区居民开始每年投资50到90万美元用于防火。他们定期以人工或牧羊的方式减少植被面积，现场存储额外的水用于灭火，升级消防栓级，并经常进行防火安全评估。

At half past midnight on October 9th 2017, they were told to evacuate. A fire on nearby Atlas Peak was heading in their direction. A handful of firefighters, led by Larry Carr, a Circle Oaks resident, did their best to beat back the flames. Circle Oaks’ fire-safety measures greatly aided the efforts—and its houses were saved from one of the worst wildfires to have swept through the region in living memory.

2017年10月9日午夜12点半，当地居民接到疏散通知，阿特拉斯峰附近的大火正朝他们袭来。Circle Oaks社区居民Larry Carr带领几个消防员拼尽全力帮助扑灭大火。Circle Oaks的防火措施对此次救援行动贡献很大——历经人们记忆中该地区的最严重山火之一后，社区房屋仍然安然无恙。

翻译组： 

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩 
Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

校核组：

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

Helen，女，坐标武汉，职业翻译，翻硕已毕业英语二笔二口，爱好陶笛洞箫古诗词

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

每年到了夏季，加州山火的新闻必定会登上新闻联播。每年春季，美国全国都在宣传叫打流感疫苗，不管你是哪个年龄段，疫苗有效期过了都要去重新打，你的私人医生会不停地给你打电话，直到确认你已经打了疫苗才肯罢休。然而，依据2018年数据，2017年的流感季在美国本土48州共造成3万余名儿童死亡，且年年如此。

你也许会问，灾害如此频繁，为什么防护的收效甚微？在我看来，灾害防护的关键在于全民参与。所谓的千里之堤、溃于蚁穴，哪怕只有一点点漏洞，都会让灾害的魔爪有机可乘。日本位于地球地壳活动最活跃的地区之一，每年大小地震不下百余次。然而，自1981年颁布《建筑基准法》，要求高层建筑能抵抗里氏7.0级以上地震以来，就很少听到日本遭受严重地震灾害的新闻。事实上，据日本建筑家协会消息，现在日本高层建筑设计时的抗震系数通常在里氏8.0-9.0级左右，否则不允许开工建设。正是因为全民接受了国家有关抗震建筑的要求，才帮助日本极大地减少了困扰其数千年的地震灾害带来的影响。

在文中我们可以看到，加州人民对对抗山火一事人心不齐，各自有各自的考量。而那些团结一致采取措施防范山火的地区，受灾程度相对减轻了许多。面对天灾，单个人类的力量是弱小的。只有许许多多单个的人类形成合力，我们才能够减少面对灾害的损失。正如那首歌里唱的，“团结就是力量”。无论在任何领域、任何事情，人类只有团结，才能生存。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“加入TE讨论群",小编通过后，请做好以下三点：

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

每日一歌一图||Day450

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491715&idx=2&sn=2e90672d416ebe507f253726163daa7c&chksm=fba3b324ccd43a32d6b01f8f407410728ac818766ebd8af1bbfca50a0ada641408b28e9371dd#rd

人生有许多的如果，

却只有一个结果。

 ---End---

three times more than是3倍还是4倍？

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491715&idx=3&sn=703796295f313a7c499945e11f8c8bff&chksm=fba3b324ccd43a329b1a9a489312cc5206747a55c38d6ff8239fb6f9a0fb9bdfa44375c73554#rd

three times more than到底是3倍还是4倍？

昨天的文章留言中有一位小伙伴留言

那么今天我们再来说说Times这个词

其实也简单

打开欧陆词典

搜索times

第一个英语常用词疑难用法解释词典

（词典包点赞转发后私信小编索取）

解释的清清楚楚明明白白，具体如下

1.表示倍数时，后面如果是名词，这名词就直接放到times之后。【例如】Soon tickets were going at five or six times their original price. 很快门票就炒到原价的五六倍。后面如果是形容词或副词，则要先放一个as然后再放该形容词或副词，或者不用as而将该形容词或副词变为比较级。【例如】It took three times as long as I expected. 或It took three times longer than I expected. 所花的时间是我所预计的三倍。/ Last year Germany became the world's No. 1 exporter, larger even than America, despite the fact that the US economy is five times as big (或five times bigger). 去年德国成了世界上第一大出口国，甚至超过了美国，尽管美国的经济是德国的五倍。但是有人认为，... times bigger than...是不科学的，因为bigger是从加减法的角度来比较，而times顾名思义应该是从乘除法的角度来表述两个数量之间的倍数关系，所以应该说... times as big as...才对。不过，语言同数学毕竟是两回事（参见下面的2. ），即使不合逻辑，只要是约定俗成，也应算是正确的。

但是，用倍数来表示“多出多少”，无论是中文或是英文，的确容易产生歧义。中文“大一倍”可以理解为“原来是一，现在是二”。但是，“大两倍”究竟是“原来是一，现在是三”，还是“原来是一，现在是二”（这一来，“一倍”和“两倍”相等了）？“大一百倍”究竟是“原来是一，现在是一百零一”，还是“原来是一，现在是一百”？同样，英文two times more和one hundred times more也同中文有同样的歧义。不过，英文同中文一样，倍数越大，“若干倍再加一”的可能就越小，例如one thousand times more than one就不大可能是 1000 + 1。为了准确，避免误解，最好还是用 ... times as many/ much as...更为妥当。

此外，英文用多少times不但可以表示“更大更多”，也可以表示“更小更少”，而这是中文所不习惯的（中文可以说“大一百倍”，但不习惯说“小一百倍”，要说“等于它的百分之一”）。但是遇到这种情况，times后面就只能用less（上文说 ... times more不准确，但是用... times less是不得已的）。【例如】... a proposed geothermal power plant in New Hampshire "would emit 35 times less carbon dioxide per kilowatt" than traditional coal-fueled plants. (The Boston Globe, Oct. 21, 2007) …拟在新罕布什尔兴建的一座地热发电站，它比起传统烧煤的电站来，“每一千瓦排放的二氧化碳量，只等于其三十五分之一”。（不说“少三十五倍”）

大家觉得有帮助就动动手指点赞转发下吧

 ---End---

经济学人财经 || 蛋有学问（写作天团剩最后一席）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491700&idx=1&sn=1b410321995d9b854ccf248a8edfb013&chksm=fba3b3d3ccd43ac5322d216bf142b2b354bf484865ae6c85408265f12cccdbdf2ec816f1b327#rd

1

导读

估计很多小伙伴会问，这最后一席怎么还没招到呢？其实原来是已经招满了的，但是具体沟通后，有小伙伴因为时间凑不上又或者教学经验缺乏等问题无法参与这个项目，所以重新招收最后一席，具体要求：雅思总分以及写作单项都是8分以上，且需要有雅思托福写作授课经验，请有兴趣且负责任的小伙伴赶紧私信小编（VX:396196827)吧，为了大别野，冲鸭！机不可失，失不再来。(此贴长期有效）

感谢思维导图作者

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Eggheads

蛋有学问

英文部分选自经济学人20200911期财经版块

Eggheads

蛋有学问

What the world can learn from Chinese futures trading

从中国的期货交易中，世人能学到什么？

“So long as you think about what others are thinking about, and stick to your trading strategy, you can always be successful.” This encouraging, if dubious, sliver of market wisdom was proffered on September 3rd by Zhou Chengji, a Chinese investment adviser, during a two-hour online tutorial. China is hardly alone in having a raucous community of would-be market gurus and day traders. But Mr Zhou’s focus was on an asset that makes China look rather unusual: egg futures, the only ones of their kind in the world nowadays.

“只要你想别人所想，坚持自己的交易策略，你就总能成功。”9月3日，中国投资顾问周成基在一次为期两小时的在线辅导中提供了这一鼓舞人心、却又备受质疑的市场智慧。潜在的市场专家和日内交易员构成喧嚣的市场并非中国独有。但周成基此次线上辅导的重点是一项让中国看起来很不寻常的资产：鸡蛋期货，当今世界上中国独有的期货。

For punters with strong views about whether hens will be productive this autumn and whether people will crave egg-fried noodles and the like, China is the place to be. All they need do is contact local brokerages and put down a 4,000 yuan ($585) deposit. Going long eggs (ie, betting prices will rise) was, briefly, one of the trades of the summer, with futures soaring 65% from late May to late July. Since then the market has cracked, prices tumbling more than 20%. Turnover is extraordinarily high. Investors buy and sell roughly 3m tonnes in egg futures every day, about a tenth of the total that China actually consumes in a full year. The rights to a single egg may, in effect, pass through a few dozen hands before it lands in boiling water.

对于那些对“今年秋天母鸡是否高产”、“人们是否会想吃鸡蛋炒面”等持强烈见解的投机者来说，中国是最佳选择。他们只需联系当地的经纪人并缴纳4000元保证金。简而言之，做多鸡蛋期货（即价格看涨）是夏季的交易之一，七月末期货价格较五月末上涨了65%。自那以后，市场崩盘，鸡蛋期货价格暴跌超过了20%。换手率也非常高。投资者们每天买卖大约300万吨的鸡蛋期货，约占中国全年实际鸡蛋消费总量的十分之一。实际上，一枚鸡蛋的所有权在煮熟前可能几经转手。

All this makes it tempting to dismiss Chinese futures as a hotbed of speculative excess. Retail traders do play a much bigger role on the country’s commodity exchanges—in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou—than in Chicago or London, which have long been the world leaders in, respectively, agriculture and metals. Officials estimated that in 2016 about 85% of open positions on Chinese exchanges were held by individuals, compared with less than 15% in America, where institutions dominate trading. Nevertheless, the very immaturity of the Chinese market also reveals some enduring truths about futures that are obscured by the smoother functioning of century-old exchanges.

诸如种种让人们忍不住将中国期货视为投机过剩的温床。相比长期分别在农业以及金属交易中占据世界级领导地位的芝加哥或伦敦的商品交易所，散户交易在上海、大连以及郑州的商品交易中的确发挥更大的作用。官方预估表明：2016年中国交易所的未平仓合约中约有85％为个人持有，而在机构主导交易的美国，这一比例不到15％。然而，正是中国市场的不成熟同时揭示了一些关于期货的不朽真理，而这些真理已被拥有百年历史的交易所更为顺畅的运作掩盖。

注释:

It is tempting to do sth. 

used for saying that something seems correct or sensible but is probably wrong.

Start with the most basic, the need to hedge. Futures are a tool for producers to guard against prices plunging and for consumers to guard against them soaring. In the West this can look quite straightforward because market power is so concentrated. The top four steel companies accounted for about 80% of production in America in 2017 versus just 20% or so in China. Fragmented spot markets make it harder for futures to serve as a benchmark. Yet it is dangerous to operate without a pricing backstop. So China has been rushing to expand its universe of futures. In the past two years alone it has launched more than ten new contracts, from crude oil and stainless steel to apples and red dates. It will take time to establish their credibility.

从最基本的对冲需求说起，期货是生产商用来预防价格暴跌、消费者预防价格飞涨的工具。这在西方国家看起来非常直白，因为市场力量相当集中。2017年，前四大钢铁公司约占美国钢铁总产量的80％，而在中国仅占20％左右。分散的现货市场使期货更难发挥市场基准的作用。但若没有价格支撑进行操作是很危险的。因此，中国一直急于扩大期货标的物产品范围。仅过去两年，就推出了十多份新合同，从原油、不锈钢到苹果、红枣。建立新期货产品的可信度需要时间。

If China still has much to learn about futures, there is something to be said for its trading intensity. Of the 20 most active contracts in the world last year, 14 were on Chinese exchanges, according to the Futures Industry Association, a global trade body. Some of that is because of double counting. It can also reflect the swirling pool of money trapped in China by capital controls. Nevertheless, there are limits to the potential irrationality in futures trading because ultimately the underlying commodities are due for physical delivery. Futures contracts thus converge with spot prices as they near expiry. Two other factors help explain China’s trading volume. Lot sizes are generally small (for example, five tonnes for copper futures in Shanghai, compared with 25 tonnes in London). And ordinary investors have easy access through their brokerage accounts. Institutional traders in China love the liquidity that results from this. It eliminates the risk of being unable to enter or exit a position because of a lack of trading.

关于期货中国还有很多要学习的地方，但其在交易活跃度方面却是领先的。期货业协会是一家全球交易机构，其数据显示去年全球20个最活跃的合约中，有14个在中国交易所进行。尽管这个结果是部分重复计算所致，但它仍反映了被资本管制滞留在中国打转的资金。由于基础商品终究将进行实物交割，期货交易中的潜在不合理性是有限的，且期货合约在即将到期时会与现货价格趋近一致。还有两个因素有助于解释中国的期货交易量：合约规模通常很小（例如，上海的铜期货为5吨，伦敦则为25吨）；普通投资者可以通过其证券投资账户轻松参与交易。中国的机构交易员很喜欢由此产生的流动性，因为它消除了由于缺乏交易而无法买进或卖出的风险。

注释：

there is...... to be said for, used with words such as something, a lot, much, etc.：indicating that something has advantages which deserve to be considered.

There is another reason why institutional traders like China. They can profit with relative ease. Commodity futures illustrate how cloistering a financial system from the rest of the world leads to distortions. Darin Friedrichs of StoneX, a commodities brokerage, says that easily disprovable rumours can cause price swings; unfounded reports of a Brazilian port closure recently drove up soyabean futures. Traders relish their “import-arb” windows, when prices of Chinese futures exceed those of their global counterparts, making it worthwhile to arbitrage by buying abroad and selling onshore.

机构交易员喜欢中国还有另一个原因，他们可以相对轻松地获利。大宗商品期货展现了与世界其他地区隔绝会如何导致金融体系扭曲。商品期货公司StoneX的达林·弗里德里希斯（Darin Friedrichs)称，很容易证伪的谣言也会引起价格波动，如近期巴西港口关闭的毫无根据的新闻报道推高了大豆期货。交易员们喜欢“进口套利”手段：中国期货超过全球同业价格时，国外买入，在岸卖出进行套利就是值得的。

注：
1. cloister: seclude from the world in or as if in a cloister

eg. She cloistered herself in the office

2. relish: If you relish something, you get a lot of enjoyment from it. 喜爱; 乐于; 玩赏

eg. I relish the challenge of doing jobs that others turn down.

我喜欢接受挑战做别人拒绝做的工作。

3. arbitrage: In finance, arbitrage is the activity of buying securities or currency in one financial market and selling it at a profit in another. 套利

Slowly, regulators are dismantling the walls, allowing more international firms to trade in China. Futures with international counterparts such as oil and corn are starting to align more with global prices. For the adventurous, though, there are always eggs.

监管机构正在慢慢地拆除壁垒，允许更多国际公司来中国交易。石油和玉米等国际期货开始与全球价格趋近一致。而对于喜欢冒险的人来说，鸡蛋总会有的。

翻译组：

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Jerry，男，金融专业硕士，经济学人铁粉

Annie Y，女，翻译硕士，IR一枚，爱别处的生活

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Jessie Lulu，女，金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

(1) 开放程度相对不高一直以来是我国期货市场的特点。和股票市场一样，监管当局对待期货市场也是循序渐进逐步开放的态度，股市方面有沪港通伦沪通，期货市场则是逐步让国际大宗投资公司进入。这样的特点导致了国内国外对同一品种的期货出现定价不同的情况，而因为一些限制交易的规定阻碍了套利的发生，导致这种价差持续存在。

(2) 文章讲到期货市场上散户占比较高的现象。股票市场上散户占比高是很明显的，期货市场我不了解。我观察下来，期货市场还有一个特点是，机构投资者、交易员的整体要求要比股票市场低。期货交易公司在招交易员的时候一般不会有什么门槛，但是买方基金公司的要求会高得多，公募更甚。这个特点和散户占比高带来的效应是类似的，导致期货市场上有大量的mis-pricing存在，羊群效应和冲动情绪会更明显。一直以来期货市场主要还是以消息面、技术面、基本面来做决策，现在CTA策略开始在期货市场流行起来，量化交易开始进入大宗商品交易领域了，市场会相对比有更少的赚钱机会。

(3) 单笔成交量相比其他国家的商品交易所要小，导致了准入门槛较低。一方面可能会有更多散户在市场里，另一方面因为单笔成交量被拆得更小，其实流动性更好了。充裕的流动性是保证交易量可以维持在高位。

(4) 由于资本管制，一些资金积蓄在国内。此外叠加中国人的高储蓄率，这可能是国内A股、期货市场（如果是的话）散户占比高的原因。具体来讲，老百姓积蓄了钱，要找地方投资啊不然通胀率那么高钱很容易贬值，银行存款、理财产品利率又低，于是老百姓总得寻找更好的资金出路，因为国内金融业发展起步晚等问题，缺少相应的投资渠道给老百姓，投资需求和投资标的严重不匹配，于是商品房和A 股开始承担起老百姓主要的投资需求了。现在监管政策的做法是开始把老百姓的资金统统往公募、财富管理、银行理财赶，希望老百姓把储蓄的钱交给专业机构打理，同时强调房住不炒，并且开始对房地产公司融资行为严监管，严查明股实债，不止国企的高杠杆是潜在风险需要降杠杆，房地产企业的高杠杆激进融资的行为也开始被遏制。但是老百姓的思维短时间还是很难改变的，引导老百姓接受代客理财还需要时间，而少了房地产投资这一块，老百姓的钱会不会暂时无处安放？目前来看，互联网金融公司最先盯上这一块肥肉，而这又引出另外一个问题：互联网金融公司的投资能力是不是能跟得上？

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“加入TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

Clark，一笔，汽车公关行业

每日一歌一图||Day449

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491700&idx=2&sn=6269087bb3dad4bf0621ad9453cbf5de&chksm=fba3b3d3ccd43ac545e6070f8c7a4fabaae81fd710fee111b398a2eff1e14d62aff018468efc#rd

这个世界上任何奇迹的产生，

都是经过千辛万苦的努力而得的，

首先承认自己的平凡，

然后用千百倍的努力来弥补平凡！

---End---

经济学人商业 || 网飞：黑斯廷斯教义

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491692&idx=1&sn=61541903114dd2a553bcd174f5f6a539&chksm=fba3b3cbccd43add1044f2ae4a09cd7a3fd68395f8bfd15ab397e2c71e2d59aa3d4bb62203a4#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

 Rena，坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The Hastings doctrine

黑斯廷斯教义

英文部分选自经济学人20200911期Business版块

Netflix

网飞

The Hastings doctrine

黑斯廷斯教义

Can the streaming giant’s boss preserve its culture of innovation as it grows bigger and more global?

做大做强且日益全球化的流媒体巨头能继续保持文化创新吗？

The best way to stay innovative, many bosses will tell you, is to hire the best people and let them get on with it. Few take this as literally as Reed Hastings of Netflix. The video-streamer’s employees can take as much holiday as they fancy and put anything on the company’s tab so long as, to cite the entirety of its corporate expense policy, they “act in Netflix’s best interest”. Anyone may access sensitive information like a running tally of subscribers, which Wall Street would kill for. Executives seal multimillion-dollar deals without sign-off from top brass. High-achievers are rewarded with the plushest salaries in the business—whether their business is writing computer code or film scripts. Underperformers are unceremoniously cut loose.

许多老板都认为保持创新的最佳方法是雇用最优秀的人才，让他们借由创新不断取得进步。但几乎只有网飞(Netflix)的里德•黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)奉之为圭臬不折不扣的施行。网飞员工可以休任意天数的假期，可以像公司的支出政策所说的那样，只要是为了网飞利益，任何支出都可以记在网飞名下。任何人都可以访问敏感信息，例如订阅者实时记录——这可是华尔街求之不得的机密。主管无需报批高层即可签署数百万美元的交易。业绩好的员工薪水令人咂舌，无论他们的业务是编写计算机代码还是电影剧本。业绩不佳者则会被毫不客气地裁掉。

注：

A running total is a total which changes because numbers keep being added to it as something progresses.

It sounds like a recipe for expensive anarchy. But managing “on the edge of chaos”, as Mr Hastings mischievously puts it, has served Netflix well. Most of its 7,900 full-time workers seem happy being treated like professional athletes, paid handsomely as long as no one can do their job better. Each generates $2.6m in annual revenue on average, nine times more than Disney employees, and $26.5m in shareholder value, three times more than a Googler does.

这听起来像是开了一个代价不菲的无政府状态的处方。但是，这种被黑斯廷斯揶揄为“处于混乱边缘”的管理方式对网飞却正合适。其7,900名全职员工中的大多数看上去乐于被当作职业运动员来对待——只要表现最佳，就拿钱拿到手软。每位员工平均创造了260万美元的效益（是迪士尼员工的9倍）以及2650万美元的股东价值（是谷歌员工的3倍）。

Investors lap it up as hungrily as Netflix binge-watchers, who now number 193m worldwide. Since going public in 2002 the firm’s share price has risen 500-fold (see chart 1), in the top ten 18-year runs in America Inc’s history, as Mr Hastings points out with a hint of pride in his voice. This year it briefly overtook Disney to become the world’s most valuable entertainment company.

投资者对其股票的追捧像疯狂刷剧的网飞用户一般毫无节制，现在投资人数已达1.93亿。自从2002年上市以来，该公司的股价已经上涨了500倍（见图1），是美国公司史上十八年来股价增长最快的十家公司之一，黑斯廷斯先生指出这一点时自豪之情溢于言表。今年，网飞一度超过迪士尼成为世界上最有价值的娱乐公司。

125 reasons why

125个理由

This track-record has earned Mr Hastings kudos. A PowerPoint “culture deck” outlining his management philosophy has been viewed 20m times since he posted it online 11 years ago. Sheryl Sandberg, Mark Zuckerberg’s right-hand woman at Facebook, has called it the most important document ever to emerge from Silicon Valley. A new book in which Mr Hastings fleshes out those 125 slides is destined for the bestseller list. But it raises a question: are the “No Rules Rules” of the title the right set as Netflix metamorphoses from California startup into global show-business colossus?

如此亮眼的业绩记录为黑斯廷斯先生赢得了荣誉。11年前，他把概述自己管理理念的幻灯片《文化》上传到网络上，其浏览次数现在已有2000万次之多。马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）在脸书(Facebook)的得力助手谢里尔·桑德伯格（Sheryl Sandberg）称，这组幻灯片为硅谷有史以来出现的最重要的文件。黑斯廷斯的新书（“No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention”）对这125张幻灯片内容进行了扩充，该书势必会成为畅销书。但这也产生了一个问题：该书书名《无规则管理（No Rules Rules）》真的概括了网飞从加利福尼亚的初创公司转变为全球娱乐界巨头的蜕变之路吗？

注：

1. Netflix culture

https://www.slideshare.net/reed2001/culture-1798664

2. 衍生阅读 No Rules Rules:       

https://www.norulesrules.com/

It is easy to put too much stock in corporate culture, which can be a story triumphant companies tell themselves after the fact. GE’s rise in the 1990s had more to do with financial engineering than with the much-aped habit introduced by Jack Welch, the conglomerate’s CEO at the time, of ranking employees and “yanking” the bottom 10%. Netflix would not be where it is without its boss’s uncanny foresight to bet on streaming in the late 2000s, or the uncannily flat-footed response from Hollywood incumbents, which took a decade to grasp the threat. Investors have displayed deep reserves of cheap capital, and deeper ones of patience. Over the past year the firm’s prodigious revenue-generators each burned through $123,000 of cash (see chart 2); this year quarterly cashflow turned positive for only the first time since 2014. Luck played a role, as when cut-price DVD players debuted just in time for Christmas in 2001, months after the dotcom crash forced Mr Hastings to lay off a third of his 120-odd workers, from what was then a DVD-by-mail rental service.

人们容易把太多精力放在企业文化，而企业文化可能是公司成功后王婆卖瓜的故事。美国通用电气公司（GE）在上世纪90年代的崛起更多的是与金融工程有关，与被广泛模仿的员工激励没有太多关联。当时集团的首席执行官杰克·韦尔奇（Jack Welch）推出了对员工进行排名和“砍掉”最底层10%的员工的政策。如果没有总裁在2000年代末押注流媒体的超凡远见，如果不是好莱坞在位者十年后才意识到网飞这个威胁，反应迟缓的不可思议，网飞就不会有今天的成就。投资者有着深厚的廉价资本储备，以及更多的耐心。在过去的一年里，该公司员工支出数额也令人嗔目，平均每人烧掉了12.3万美元的现金（见图2）；今年的季度现金流是自2014年以来的首次转正。这其中也有运气因素，当时从事DVD邮寄租赁服务的黑斯廷斯先生为了应对互联网泡沫，在几个月前刚裁掉了120多名员工中的三分之一，而削价后的DVD播放器又恰逢其时在2001年圣诞节前亮相。

注：

Revenue generation：one of the most important activities any business can engage in. It is defined as a process by which a company plans how to market and sell its products or services, in order to generate income.

Still, as Michael Nathanson of MoffattNathanson, a consultancy, observes, “Every time that Netflix faced a roadblock it found a clever way to work around it and emerge stronger.” Most notably, when TV networks and studios at last woke up to the reality of streaming and began to hog content licences, Netflix started producing its own shows, and later feature films. The swivel might have taken longer with employees bogged down in chains of approvals. “Radical candour”, whereby everyone’s ideas, from Mr Hastings down, can be challenged by all-comers, helps weed out bad ones. “Sunshining”, the stomach-churning spectacle of publicly explaining choices, helps not to repeat mistakes. Senior Netflixers’ “ability to swallow their pride is truly exceptional”, says Willy Shih of Harvard Business School, who has written two case studies on the firm.

不过，正如咨询公司MoffattNathanson的迈克尔·内桑森（Michael Nathanson）所观察到，"每当网飞遇到拦路虎，都能设法变通，让自己变得更加强大。" 最值得注意的是，当电视网络和制作公司最终幡然醒悟、开始霸凌流媒体、独占内容许可时，网飞已经开始制作自己的节目，以及后来的故事片。如果员工陷入长时审批流程，这个转变可能需要更长的时间。"极端坦率"，即人人都可以挑战上至黑斯廷斯先生下至所有员工的想法，这有助于去芜存菁。"阳光普照"，即公开解释自己的判断抉择的场面虽令人反胃，却有助于避免重蹈覆辙。曾写过两篇网飞案例研究的哈佛商学院施威利（Willy Shih ）称，网飞诸位高管 "接纳谏言确实非同一般"。

Now this innovation-friendly culture is under fire on three fronts. The first two—the firm’s growing size and scope—are internal to Netflix. The third source of pressure comes from the outside.

现在，这种有利于创新的文化受到三方面的威胁，前两个都是网飞的内部问题，即公司不断增长的规模和范围。而第三个威胁则来自外部。

Start with size. The flat hierarchy and frankness that works in Silicon Valley, with its narrow range of temperaments and socioeconomic backgrounds, is harder to sustain in a global workforce that has swelled nearly fourfold in five years (more if you include temporary contractors, who now number over 2,200, up from fewer than 400 in 2015). Asians, Europeans and Latin Americans can find visitors from headquarters “exotic”, in Mr Hastings’s words. Negotiating “context”, as Netflix managers and their subordinates do constantly in the absence of explicit rules, offers useful flexibility. But it takes time that could be spent perfecting a product—ever more of it as tacit cultural understanding is diluted by international expansion. Revenue per worker is down by 7% from 2015.

首先从规模来看，在硅谷行之有效的扁平化等级制度和透明制度，其氛围和社会经济背景的适用范围很窄，全球化劳动力五年内增加了近四倍，这导致这种制度更难维持（如果算上临时合同工，人数就更多了，临时合同工现在有2200多人，而2015年只有不到400人）。用黑斯廷斯先生的话说，亚洲人，欧洲人和拉丁美洲人会发现来自总部的访客有“异国情调”。网飞的经理和他们的下属经常要在没有明确规则的情况下磋商“来龙去脉”。这种常规操作更加灵活实用，但耗费时间。这些时间本可以用来完善产品。随着默契的文化理解被国际扩张冲淡，耗费的时间越来越多。自2015年以来，每名员工的收入下降了7%。

Many countries grant workers more protections than America does. This is a problem for the “keeper test”, which requires managers constantly to question if they would fight to stop their underlings from leaving—and, if the answer is “no”, immediately send the individual on their way with generous severance. These golden handshakes, which range from four months’ salary in America to more than six months in the Netherlands, are “too generous” to reject, says Mr Hastings. Netflix has not been sued even in Brazil, where employee lawsuits are a national sport to rival football. The bonhomie may not last.

与美国相比，许多国家往往给予工人更多的保护。这是“守门员测试”中的问题，该测试要求经理们不断质疑自己是不是会尽全力阻止下属离职—如果答案是“否”，就会立即慷慨地让其离开。黑斯廷斯先生称，一大笔的退职金，在美国是四个月工资，在荷兰是六个月以上工资，多到让人无法拒绝。网飞甚至在巴西也没有被起诉过，那里的劳资诉讼是一项与足球不相上下的全国性运动。这种敦厚可能不会持续太久。

注：

1. Golden handshake: A golden handshake is a large sum of money that a company gives to an employee when he or she leaves, as a reward for long service or good work. 大笔退职金；高额退休

(选自Collins)

2.keepertest:https://www.highlights.lornerubis.com/2015/08/the-netflix-keeper-test-and-the-courage-to-take-it/

A larger workforce poses a separate risk to internal transparency. Even while the attrition rate hovers at around 10%, the number of ex-Netflixers with knowledge of the firm’s finances and strategic bets is now growing by hundreds each year. Unwanted disclosures have been rare and, says Mr Hastings, immaterial. But, he concedes, serious leaks may be “a matter of time”.

日益庞大的雇员队伍给内部透明度带来了额外的风险。尽管员工流失率徘徊在10%，但了解公司财务状况和战略赌注方向的前网飞雇员数量正以每年数百人的速度增长。黑斯廷斯先生表示，不希望披露的信息很少，而且并不重要。但他也承认严重的泄密只是“时间问题”。

The second challenge has to do with Netflix’s sectoral girth. In its first decade it was primarily a firm of technologists like Mr Hastings, whom his co-founder, Marc Randolph (who left the firm in 2003), likened to the hyper-rational, emotionless Mr Spock in “Star Trek”. That was never entirely fair—Netflix products are data-driven but Mr Hastings attaches as much weight to judgment in managing people as Captain Kirk ever did. Still, by the standards of Tinseltown, where he now spends a couple of days most weeks amid studio intrigues and moody showrunners, he and his firm can come across as robotic.

第二个挑战与网飞所在的行业范围有密切联系。在最初的十年里，它主要是一家像黑斯廷斯这样的技术专家组成的公司，联合创始人马克·伦道夫（Marc Randolph）（2003年离开网飞)把黑斯廷斯比作《星际迷航》中超级理性、没有感情的斯波克先生。这种说法一点也不公平——网飞产品是数据驱动，但黑斯廷斯先生在管理人员时，与柯克船长一样重视判断力。不过，按照浮华城（指好莱坞）的标准，他大部分时候，每周都要花几天时间，置身于制片公司的尔虞我诈和喜怒无常的制作人之中，他和他的公司就会给人一种机械呆板的感觉。

注：

Tinseltown,  People sometimes refer to Hollywood as Tinseltown, especially when they want to show that they disapprove of it or when they are making fun of it. 浮华城(好莱坞的贬称、谐称)

One producer who has worked with Netflix detects hints of its horizontal hierarchy permeating Hollywood “by osmosis”. This can speed things along. But, she grouses, “sometimes you need a production assistant to assist, not commission scripts.” At the same time, Netflix missed a chance to revolutionise other old studio ways. The $150m five-year deal it signed in 2018 with Shonda Rhimes, a star TV producer, may be more generous than most networks could afford. But it is Hollywoodian in its structure, says a former executive—and antithetical to the keeper test.

一位曾与网飞合作过的制片人发现，该公司的扁平化管理秘诀通过“潜移默化”的方式渗入了好莱坞。这可以加快协同速度。但是，她抱怨道，“有时候你需要的是一个制片助理来协助，而不是委托编写的剧本。”与此同时，网飞错过了一次彻底革新其他老制片公司的机会。2018年，它与明星电视制作人珊达·瑞姆斯（Shonda Rhimes）签订了一份1.5亿美元的五年期合同，这可比大多数能负担得起的广播电视公司慷慨多了。但一位前高管说，这种方式在结构上是好莱坞式的，而且与“守门员”测试背道而驰。

Moreover, Netflix may have no choice but to expand into new industries. This would be a departure from its laser focus on its core product: quality streamed entertainment. But show business is increasingly the preserve of conglomerates. Disney has theme parks, merchandising and TV networks. Comcast (the cable giant that owns NBC Universal) and AT&T (the telecoms group which controls HBO and WarnerMedia) possess the pipes along which content flows. Apple’s and Amazon’s Hollywood ambitions are tethered to their powerful technology platforms.

此外，网飞也许别无选择，只能向新产业进军。这意味着网飞将偏离其核心产品——优质的流媒体娱乐服务。但娱乐业愈加成为企业集团的保留活动。迪士尼拥有主题公园、广告推销、电视网络的业务。康卡斯特(Comcast,拥有NBC环球集团的有线电视巨头）和美国电话电报公司（AT&T, 控制HBO和华纳传媒的电信集团）拥有可以输送内容的缆线设施。苹果和亚马逊进军好莱坞的野心与其强大的技术平台密不可分。

Disrupting sluggish behemoths is one thing. Competing with them head-on may require a different trade-off between flexibility and efficiency. It may also mean takeovers. Mr Hastings has no shopping plans. But a strong culture, he admits, “is a material weakness if you are going to make big acquisitions”. Cultural sparks could fly when you integrate more than a few dozen people, as they flew when his first firm, Pure Software, bought rivals in the 1990s.

扰动行动迟缓的巨头是一回事，与这些巨头正面竞争则是另一回事，这可能需要在灵活和效率中找到另一种的平衡，这也许意味着要进行一些收购。黑斯廷斯先生并没有收购计划。但他承认：“如果你要进行一场大收购，强大的企业文化是个客观存在的弱点”。当你将几十甚至更多人并入公司时，文化碰撞的火花就会消失，就像在20世纪90年代，他的第一家公司Pure Software收购对手公司时一样。

The third set of challenges is external. Covid-19 has muted the exchange of ideas. It is also harder to evaluate—and dismiss—people by Zoom; Netflix’s 12-month rolling attrition rate has declined by a third, to 7%. This week Mr Hastings said he does not see “any positives” to home-working.

第三组挑战来自于外部。新冠病毒已经阻碍了思想交流。要想通过Zoom来评估和解雇员工变得尤为困难。网飞连续12个月不断攀升的员工流失率已经下降了三分之一，达到7%。本周，黑斯廷斯先生表示在家远程工作没有“任何可取之处”。

注： 

Attrition rate: the rate of shrinkage in size or number

Dear White People

亲爱的白人

Then there is public pressure for corporate America to care more about diversity. Mr Hastings added inclusion to Netflix values in 2016 but it barely features in his investor letters or annual reports. He acknowledges a tension between the desire for diversity and Netflix’s arch-meritocratic ideals (the firm eschews quotas, as it does all management metrics, in favour of that Kirkian judgment). Its corporate temperament screams “hypermasculine”, as Erin Meyer, Mr Hastings’s co-author and professor at INSEAD business school in France, has herself noted. And one person’s radical candour is another’s microaggression.

另外，来自公众的压力也会迫使美国公司更多地关注（员工族群的）多样性。2016年，黑斯廷斯先生在网飞的企业价值观中加入了包容的理念，但这在他致股东的信件或年报中却鲜有体现。他承认对多样性的渴求和网飞精英至上的管理理念有矛盾（该公司逃避少数裔配额，正如它对柯式（Kirkian）评估推崇备至而放弃所有的管理指标一样）。高调宣称自己的企业精神是“超级男子气概”，正如艾琳·梅耶自己说的那样。艾琳是黑斯廷斯先生新书的合著者及法国的欧洲工商管理学院的教授。一个人极端坦率就意味着对他人怀有了些许敌意。

Netflix shareholders and their representatives on the board have confidence that Mr Hastings can reconcile these strains. He has given them plenty of reasons to trust his own judgment. But he is fully aware that his position is safe only as long as he can keep the magic going. The keeper test applies to him, as well.

网飞的股东及董事会代表相信，黑斯廷斯先生可以协调好这些矛盾。黑斯廷斯先生已给予他们足够的理由去信任他的判断。但是他完全清楚，只要奇迹能够继续，他的位置就会安稳。守门员测试同样也适用于他。

For an interview with Reed Hastings, see online at economist.com/reedhastings

瑞德·黑斯廷斯的采访详见economist.com/reedhastings

翻译组：

Yao，男，不想做翻译的翻译学硕士

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Megan，女，外企民工，好想一身都是月

Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

校对组：

Forest，女，自由职业，爱树的人

Lixia，我视英语为初恋，英语瞧我像备胎

Very，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

 文章前半部分看下来，感到别扭却不知从何讲起，直到看到“人们容易把太多精力放在企业文化，而企业文化可能是公司后王婆卖瓜的故事”这句话，豁然开朗，一时间通体舒畅。

虽然网飞因这种“无政府”的“企业文化”大获成功，赚得盆满钵满，但这种方式对大部分公司而言都是缺乏借鉴意义的。

 首先，我们要看到，网飞这一企业文化是建立在“雇佣最优秀的人才”的前提下的，而且公司有足够优秀的社会声誉、光明的发展前景和强大的经济实力去留住人才、激励人才奋发向上。讲到这里，不由得回想起我的初中母校，当年在全市算是数一数二的学校。我的母校建在一条小巷里，教学楼或和教学设备都相当陈旧且普通，师资也没有特别突出，管理松散，学生自在飞翔。尽管如此，还是耐不住每年招收的是全市各小学成绩最优秀的那批人，不错的学习基础和你追我赶的学习氛围，还是让这所学校年年在中考中战绩辉煌。然而，几年后，当招生方式由择优录取变为摇号之后，风云巨变，学校从此“泯为众人也”。相比起来，当年最强劲的竞争对手，另一所以强大师资、严格管理闻名的初中，“翻身做地主”，哪怕同样是摇号招生，依然能保持不错的成绩。这一对比确实太过“人间真实”，要想让本性懒惰的人类创造出辉煌，除非这群人都是天赋异禀或是高度自律的（但这类人在人群中算是少数），否则就只能用条条框框来规范，或是用有强大诱惑力的激励机制来鞭策。这才是更具普适性的方法。

其次，哪怕是好的文化，在代代相传或是规模扩张的过程中被稀释、变味，也是相当常见的情况。这又勾起我高中时代的回忆，作为一个对社团文化高度认同、有强烈归属感的人，卸任后看到学校以“学习为重”为理由限制社团的发展，或是看到师弟师妹们更倾向于参加对加分、升学有实用帮助的活动时，都会唏嘘不已（这也只是一个老师姐无谓的感叹，毕竟还是现实一点活得更舒心）。当年那些我视若珍宝的社团文化，因为“条条框框”和“后继无人”等原因，都渐渐消逝了，但积极一点想，又会觉得，涅槃才能重生，或许在这舍离之间，又孕育出新的文化，而这些新的文化，又可能会被谁视为珍宝呢。

     最后，任何一家企业的成功都有其时代背景。“时势造英雄”，虽然不可否认，网飞有识别风口、乘势起飞的“慧眼”，但这样的成功依然难以复制。毕竟，哪一项成功不是“天时地利人和”的杰作呢？

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day448

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491692&idx=2&sn=df6052bda1ac8b3cde9801d6d20e3d64&chksm=fba3b3cbccd43add89777f83fd10f63dc05e07008f8b5db08a05dcb6487aefcf00162d6bb46e#rd

人生处处是选择，

所以当你选择时一定要慎重，

放弃选择时一定要三思。

因为很多时候放弃就意味着一无所有。

把握自己的选择，才能赢得更好的生活！

---End---

经济学人社论 || 工作与办公室政治（写作天团仅剩最后一席）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491683&idx=1&sn=11f9071cd9e263fd3da191e08c26fa18&chksm=fba3b3c4ccd43ad2a791ffa0d8f6f512fdba88e8bb1b0cfb1d433b0788f3de270431473a7d69#rd

1

导读

写作天团现已成团6人，仅剩最后一席，要求：雅思总分以及写作单项都是8分以上，且最好是有雅思托福授课经验，有兴趣的小伙伴赶紧私信小编（VX:396196827)哈，为了大别野，冲鸭！机不可失，失不再来。

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Work and Office politics     

工作与办公室政治

英文部分选自经济学人20200911期Leaders版块

Work and Office politics     

工作与办公室政治

The fight over the future of the workplace has just begun

未来的工作场所之战刚刚拉开帷幕 

Most people associate the office with routine and conformity, but it is fast becoming a source of economic uncertainty and heated dispute. Around the world workers, bosses, landlords and governments are trying to work out if the office is obsolete—and are coming to radically different conclusions. Some 84% of French office workers are back at their desks, but less than 40% of British ones are. Jack Dorsey, the head of Twitter, says the company’s staff can work from home “forever” but Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, says home-working is “a pure negative”. As firms dither, the $30trn global commercial-property market is stalked by fears of a deeper slump. And while some workers dream of a Panglossian future without commutes and Pret A Manger, others wonder about the threat to promotions, pay and job security.

大多数人将办公室与例行公事和循规蹈矩联系在一起，但它正迅速成为经济不确定性和激烈争论的源头。世界各地的工人、老板、房东和政府都在试图搞清楚办公室是否过时了——并得出了截然不同的结论。大约有84%的法国办公室职员回到了他们的办公桌前，但在英国只有不到40%。Twitter负责人杰克•多尔西(Jack Dorsey)表示，该公司的员工可以“永远”在家工作，但Netflix创始人里德•黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)表示，在家工作是一件“完全负面的事情”。随着各公司的犹豫不决，价值30万亿美元的全球商业地产市场正被对更严重衰退的恐惧所笼罩。当一些过于乐观的员工梦想着一个没有通勤和便宜快餐的未来时，其他人则担心这对升职、薪酬和工作保障造成威胁。

注：Panglossian：naively or unreasonably optimistic. 盲目乐观

Pret A Manger: an international sandwich shop franchise chain based in the United Kingdom, popularly referred to as Pret. 总部位于英国的一家三明治连锁店

The disagreement reflects uncertainty about how effective social distancing will be and how long it will take before a covid-19 vaccine is widely available. But it is about more than that: the pandemic has revealed just how many offices were being run as relics of the 20th century, even as it triggered the mass-adoption of technologies that can transform white-collar work. As a result the covid calamity will prompt a long-overdue phase of technological and social experimentation, neither business as usual nor a fatal blow to the office. This era holds promise but also brings threats, not least to companies’ cultures. Instead of resisting change, governments need to update antiquated employment laws and begin reimagining city centres.

这种分歧反映对两件事的不确定性，一是社交距离的将达到什么样的效果；二是在新冠肺炎疫苗的广泛普及之前这样的社交距离还要持续多久。但它的意义不止于此:这场流行病暴露出到底有多少办公室还像20世纪的遗迹般运行着，虽然疫情也引发了足以改变白领工作的技术进行大规模应用。其结果是，新冠肺炎引发的灾难将推动一个迟来已久的技术和社会实验阶段，这既不是一如往常，也不是对办公室的致命打击。尤其是对企业文化来说，这个时代既充满希望，又遍布威胁。政府需要更新陈旧的就业法律并开始重新构想城市中心，而非抵制变革。

Two hundred years ago steam power brought workers to factories where they could use new machines. As corporate giants emerged in the late 19th century, staff were needed to administer them. They held planning meetings and circulated memos, invoices and other paperwork to record what they had done. All this required workers to be close together and created the pattern of people commuting by car or train in order to meet in a central office.

两百年前，蒸汽动力把工人们带到了工厂，在那里他们可以操作新机器。随着19世纪末企业巨头的出现，企业需要员工来进行管理。员工们召开计划会议，分发备忘录、发票和其他文件，以记录他们所做的事情。所有这一切都要求员工们能够工作在一起，并且为了在总公司会面而创造了开车或乘坐火车通勤的工作模式。

This system always had glaring shortcomings, some of which have become worse over time. Most people hate the hassle and expense of commuting, which eats up over four hours a week for the average American worker. Some dislike the noise and formality of offices, or suffer from discrimination within them. Office-bound workers find it harder to look after their children, a growing issue as more families have two working parents.

该体系一直都存在着一些显而易见的弊端，有些随着时间推移越发严重。通勤路上的手忙脚乱和日积月累的交通费用令大多数人苦不堪言，美国工人每周平均耗费在通勤上的时间就超过了四个小时。有的人厌恶办公室里的吵闹喧哗和种种规矩，还有的人则遭受着办公室歧视。被束缚在办公室的员工们发现照顾孩子更加困难，随着双职工家庭越来越多，这个问题也呈上升趋势。

You might think that new technologies would have shaken up this unsatisfactory status quo. After all, the pdf electronic document was born in 1991, the cost of bandwidth collapsed in the 2000s, and Zoom and Slack, two firms whose technology powers remote working, are both nearly a decade old. Yet inertia has allowed the office to escape serious disruption. Before covid-19 struck, for example, flexible-office companies (including the troubled WeWork) had a tiny global market share of under 5%. Most businesses were unwilling to switch wholesale to remote-working technologies before their clients did; or to write off sunk costs in the form of property assets and leases.

你可能认为新技术本应该可以改变这种令人不满的状况。毕竟1991年就有了pdf格式的电子文档，21世纪初带宽成本大大降低，Zoom和Slack这两家聚焦远程办公技术的公司成立都差不多有十年之久了。但守旧使得办公室体系沿用至今。例如，新冠疫情爆发前，弹性工作制企业（包括存在诸多问题的共享办公企业WeWork）仅占全球市场份额的不到5%。大多数企业都不愿意大规模的采用远程工作技术，除非客户先改变。它们也不原意把房地产资产和租赁当作沉没成本注销掉。

注：In business, a sunk cost fallacy can cost a business greater financial losses. It would be more rational to write off these sunk costs, rather than wasting more money on developing a product which will never make a profit.沉没成本会给公司带来更大的损失。注销沉没成本才是明智的，而不是浪费更多钱在不能盈利的事物上。

Covid-19 has upended all this. Before the pandemic only 3% of Americans worked from home regularly; now a huge number have tried it. Even Xerox, a firm synonymous with office printers spewing unread pages, has many of its staff working from home. As more people adopt remote-working technologies there is a powerful network effect, with each new customer making the service more useful. Together Microsoft Teams, Zoom, Google Meet and Cisco Webex now have well over 300m users. Bureaucratic hurdles to remote work have been blasted out of the way. Civil courts are operating remotely. Notaries have gone online and some banks have eliminated the need for new customers to enter a branch to confirm their identity and open an account.

上述局面在新冠疫情出现后翻转了。以前只有3%的美国人经常在家办公，而现在许多员工已经尝试了在家办公。就连作为办公室打印机代名词的施乐公司（Xerox）也允许很多员工在家办公（办公室的繁文缛节造成了无数的纸张浪费）。远程办公技术不断普及，随着新用户的加入，网络效应显著，服务价值提升。Microsoft Teams、Zoom、Google Meet和Cisco Webex的用户总数远超3亿。线上办公程序性障碍一扫而空。民事法庭远程审案，公证人员在线办公，部分银行网点无需新客户前往柜台就能核实身份、开立账户。

How much of this change will stick when a vaccine arrives? The best available guide is from countries where the virus is under control. There the picture is of an “optional office”, which people attend, but less frequently. In Germany, for example, 74% of office workers now go to their place of work, but only half of them are there five days a week, according to surveys by Morgan Stanley. The exact balance will depend on the industry and city. In places with easy commutes more workers will go to the office; megacities with long, expensive journeys may see fewer.

这些变化有多少能在疫苗普及后保留下来？目前最多只能参考那些抗疫得力的国家的情况：“自选办公”，人们来上班，但出勤率不高。比如摩根斯坦利调查显示，现在德国有74%的上班族重返工作岗位，不过其中只有半数人每周到岗五天。具体数字还要看各行业和地区的具体情况。通勤便利的地区出勤率更高；通勤路程长、花费贵的大城市到岗人数会更少。

Companies will have to adapt to this pattern of sporadic attendance in which the office is a hub, not a second home. There is a risk that over time a firm’s social capital erodes, creativity flags, hierarchies ossify and team spirit fades, as Mr Hastings fears . The answer is more targeted staff interactions, with groups gathering at specific times to refresh friendships and swap information. New technologies that “gamify” online interactions to prompt spontaneity may eventually supersede the stilted world of Zoom. As they retool their cultures firms will need to rejig their property: sober investors expect a reduction of at least 10% in the stock of office space in big cities. With the typical corporate lease lasting at least half a decade, this will take time to play out.

企业需要适应间歇性出勤的工作模式，让办公室发挥枢纽功能，而非员工的“另一个家”。但这种模式存在风险，像黑斯廷斯担心的那样，长期以往会给公司带来社会资本减值、创造力衰退、阶层固化，以及团队精神缺失的恶果。应对方案是有针对性地组织员工互动，在特定时间安排团组形式的集会，方便成员们增进交情，互通信息。新技术能给线上互动提供游戏化体验，促进用户自发参与，或终将淘汰Zoom统治下的刻板世界。公司在重塑企业文化的同时，还要调整办公空间，冷静的投资人们预计大城市写字楼的存量将至少下降10%。而企业租赁期一般5年起步，改变尚需时日。 

For governments the temptation is to turn the clock back to limit the economic damage, from the collapse of city-centre cafés to the $16bn budget shortfall that New York’s subway system faces. Britain’s government has tried to cajole workers back to the office. But rather than resist technological change, it is far better to anticipate its consequences. Two priorities stand out.

疫情不仅让市中心的小餐馆倒闭，也让纽约地铁系统肩负160亿美元的预算缺口，对各国政府而言，最大的愿望恐怕就是时光可以倒流，好让经济损失没那么严重。英国政府就极力劝诱大家恢复线下办工，不过与其抵制技术变革，倒不如预测这种变革带来的结果。其中，要属下列两件事最为重要。

First, a vast corpus of employment law will need to be modernised. Already the gig economy has shown that it is out of date. Now new prickly questions about workers’ rights and responsibilities loom: can firms monitor remote workers to assess their productivity? Who is liable if employees injure themselves at home? Any sense that white-collar workers are getting perks will create simmering resentment in the rest of the workforce.

首先，大批劳工法需要修改，以适应现代社会。零工经济已经证明现在的劳工法跟不上时代了。不过，如今还有一些棘手的新难题日益逼近，有关劳动人员的权利与义务：员工远程办公的话，公司能够考查他们并评估他们的生产效率吗？要是员工在家受伤了，谁来担这个责任？只要有人认为白领们拿着额外津贴，都会让其他劳动人员心生怨恨。

The second priority is city centres. For a century they have been dominated by towers filled with swivel chairs and tonnes of yellowing paper. Now complex urban-planning rules will need a systematic overhaul to allow buildings and districts to be redeveloped for new uses, including flats and recreation. If you step back into the office this month, sit down and log on to your computer—but don’t get too comfortable.

其次，市中心的建设也尤为重要。过去一个世纪，各种高楼大厦耸立于市中心，大厦里面全是各种转椅，以及成千上万日渐泛黄的办公用纸。而如今，根据综合楼群的城市规划方案，需要对建筑物和街区进行系统性全面改造，以用于新用途（包括住家和娱乐在内）。如果本月你就要回到办公室，坐在办公椅上，登录电脑，切记不要太安于现状。

翻译组：

Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实

Fionana，女，经济学人伪粉，就爱乱翻书

Yuki，女，翻译在读，庄严发誓绝对不干好事

Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Carole，女，死宅，日常思考人生无果

Wesley，男，英语老师，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vincent 男，狱警，电子与法学双硕，爱好诗歌与哲学

汪曾祺大致这么说过，我们这个民族，长期以来，生于忧患，已经很“皮实”了，对于任何猝然而来的灾难，皆可用一种“儒道互补”的精神对待之。这种“儒道互补”的真髓，即“不在乎”。若再以此“不在乎”去观量此文，凭直觉经验，不禁觉得，真的要去调研办公方式的改变吗？因为焦虑吗？可人类社会自有应变之道啊。男女情爱多发端于冬夏两季节，何也？情人之爱，一是如狼爱羊，美丽色相之引导；二是温暖积蓄之心渐长，依偎取暖需求之引导；而春秋两季，人多思考，反而不易产生关乎情爱的想法。深谙办公室恋情之道的very如是说。可见，人尚且在应对季节的变化时，自然而然地完成了规划，更遑论来回切换于工作、生活之中，做好时间管理。布劳威尔说：直觉经验就是数字经验，推算经验，时间经验。时间经验是，推算经验是，数字经验是，之后。1之后是2，2之后是3。现在之后是，今天之后是，时间是连续的，一点一点向前进展的。数学经验无法简化为逻辑。既然不为逻辑，就不受排中律的限制，这样悖论就不成为问题。解决问题的方法就是消灭它。问题不成为问题，就解决了。

胡乱说一通后，发现，篮球撤去梯子，剪掉篮网的底袋，其实用了50年。哥德尔说过，你不可以用L以外的语言来形容L。你一旦用L以外的语言来形容L，就免不了产生语言的谬误。后来very说，解决此问题也有好办法，她可以什么也不说，就用丝巾缠着他的手，他就会留下。他强壮而温暖的胸怀，他结实的大腿，他的唇他的齿，都是她的了。

苏格拉底早预言过“向上之路”是艰难的，相比文明智慧，一些愚蠢或狂暴的事件对历史进程的影响更大一些。值得一提的是，从工业现代化之后的社会环境转变以来，免不了一些从鸡犬相闻往来故人变为唯理性是从缺乏社会联结的城市空间，如此“nostalgia”情怀背书，悲观论调。但是亦要看到，现代化生活为人类提供的自由，以及对于发掘更大潜能的暗示，都是充满积极意味的。人与人的精神联结，可以是跳脱出基于空间位置的亲近而转向情感价值观上的相似性，比如我与very哥，虽然相隔遥遥，却共同爱好古代奇书的连环画册，他说即如我说一般。

面对未来，应该是理性和忧畏都在，生存的喜乐和不确定也在。没有一件事情是重要的，除非你觉得非如此不可。唐三藏，江流儿。它来临，一切偶然的出现皆皈依为必然。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day447

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491683&idx=2&sn=c707b977125257bc5701d42e1ca15e9f&chksm=fba3b3c4ccd43ad26b8a7370f49ce22ed0a5714de114460fce9bbde10cb3960b829fde020ca5#rd

真实的生活开始于我们独处之时，

独自思考，独自感受，

沉溺于回忆之中，

有如梦境中清醒着，

经历着那些极其琐屑的细微时刻。

---End---

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491673&idx=1&sn=e2001945334d6fa6c5222181fcd541a9&chksm=fba3b3feccd43ae8a48d785f209afc5eeaeb7dcd09f8d3d91504d3beaa00424983c8ba91edb6#rd

本周翻译预告 

1. The Economist | Office politics

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/09/12/is-the-office-finished?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | The Hastings doctrine

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/09/12/can-reed-hastings-preserve-netflixs-culture-of-innovation-as-it-grows?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Eggheads

https://www.economist.com/node/21791750?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | Learning to live with it

https://www.economist.com/node/21791685?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | The mathematics of death

https://www.economist.com/node/21791678?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

经济学人逝者 || 演员查德维克·博斯曼

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491668&idx=1&sn=ca283a1d7d7f369dd6fbbde5115c7096&chksm=fba3b3f3ccd43ae5fcad3fbc680999bc5155ee1b04d7babede648662f5b04cc017ccef2cb9a8#rd

1

导读

休息一下......

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

To be a king

成为王者

英文部分选自经济学人20200905期逝者版块

Obituary: Chadwick Boseman

逝者：查德维克·博斯曼

To be a king

成为王者

Chadwick Boseman, actor, died on August 28th, aged 43

查德维克·博斯曼，演员，于8月28日逝世，终年43岁。

As he slipped into each role, studiously, scene by scene, Chadwick Boseman kept one thought in mind. His character was a strong black man in a world that conflicted with his strength. It didn’t want him to be great; it tried to keep him down. But there was something in him, some particular talent, or obsession, or part of his past, that made him stand tall. That made him say, “No.”

当查德维克·博斯曼在一场又一场戏中潜心进入每个角色时，他心中只有一个念头：他扮演的角色是一个强大的黑人，却存在于一个对其力量充满了抗拒的世界里。这个世界不想让他伟大，而想让他低头，但是他身上的某种品质——某种特殊才能、或者迷恋，亦或他的一些过往——却让他昂首挺胸，让他说：“不！”

It was fitting, then, that the role he became most famous for was a tested but triumphant black king, T’Challa, in “Black Panther” in 2018. The film was a sensation. It tipped Hollywood on its head: a $1.3bn-grossing movie whose cast and makers were, almost to a man and woman, black. Black Panther (T’Challa’s moonlighting persona) had appeared in film before, but in the “Captain America” and “Avengers” series, among a crowd of white Marvel superheroes. Now he stood alone. In a white-focused world he ruled a country, Wakanda, that was more advanced than any other, both technologically and spiritually. Never colonised, never enslaved. He himself was both an acrobatic righter of wrongs and a ruler who was cool, stately, wisecracking and wise. Even before the film came out, schools were booking cinemas for pupils to see it. For him, as the lead, success was not just black children, in their Panther costumes, crying “Wakanda for ever!” and giving the crossed-arm salute. He had put in their heads the idea that they could be great. And he had also sown in little white heads the rare, enlightening thought: “I want to be him.”

2018年，电影《黑豹》中经受重重考验、最终获得成功的黑人国王特查拉是博斯曼最为著名的角色，而这一角色也与他最为契合。《黑豹》引起了轰动，成为好莱坞黑人电影的成功范例：票房总收入13亿美元，演员和制作团体几乎全部是黑人。黑豹（特查拉的另一身份）这个角色在之前的电影中也出现过，但都是在《美国队长》和《复仇者联盟》系列影片中，混在漫威众多的白人超级英雄中。如今，他是唯一的主角。在以白人为中心的世界里，特查拉统治着一个叫做瓦坎达的国家，瓦坎达在技术和精神上领先全球，从不殖民，也从未被奴役。特查拉自己既是武艺高强的匡扶正义者，也是冷酷高贵、风趣又睿智的统治者。甚至在《黑豹》上映之前，学校就在电影院订票让学生观看。对于主角查德维克·博斯曼而言，成功不仅在于黑人小孩穿着黑豹戏服，一边高喊“瓦坎达万岁”，一边交叉双臂致敬。成功更在于，他让黑人小孩萌生了这样的想法：他们也可以成为伟大的人。同时他也在白人小孩的脑袋里种下了珍贵的、启发性的念头：“我想成为他。”

Less obviously, his major roles before then had also made that point. All were men the world could not keep down. In “42” as Jackie Robinson, the first black player in modern Major League baseball, he struggled through white disdain, but always knew how good he was. In “Marshall”, as the lawyer who became the first black Supreme Court justice, he combined sharp clothes with a razor-sharp mind as he defended his innocent black client. And in “Get on Up” as James Brown, the firebrand singer who electrified music in the 1960s, he bowed to no prejudice but strutted through life, seizing what he wanted. All these were fighters in their way, as effective as Black Panther crouched on a speeding car to spring. Brown had that one-two step, then a punch like a boxer’s at the microphone. Marshall could floor a racist thug with one blow. Robinson would stand at the plate, ready, about to hit a homer that would shock the crowd into silence. Then cheers.

其实，查德维克·博斯曼之前的主要角色也表达过相同的观点，只不过没有这么明显。那些角色都是不向世界屈服的强者。在《42号传奇》中，他扮演美国职业棒球大联盟史上第一位黑人球员杰基·罗宾逊，演绎了罗宾逊忍受白人歧视，仍始终坚信自己实力的故事。在《马歇尔》中，他扮演的瑟古德·马歇尔律师后来成为了美国最高法院第一位黑人法官（我这里修改的原因是按照美国的司法管理，成为法官之后不再做律师，但是成为法官之前需要通过做律师来积累经验。所以 这部电影是截取的瑟古德做律师的一些片段，所以我认为翻译要把这两个时间段分开。）。（电影中）在为无罪的黑人委托人辩护时，马歇尔衣着考究，思维敏锐。在《激乐人心》中，他扮演震撼了20世纪60年代乐坛的歌手詹姆斯·布朗，再现了离经叛道的布朗不向偏见低头，努力寻找机会，昂首阔步走过的一生。博斯曼塑造的这些角色都是战士，就像蹲伏在疾驰的车上准备一跃而起的黑豹一样。布朗的特点是先是随节奏滑着舞步，然后像拳击手出拳一样准确地对着麦克风唱起歌来。马歇尔对种族主义份子准确出击，一击致命。罗宾逊站在本垒板旁，准备好击出一记本垒打，观众被惊得哑口无言，接着欢声雷动。

Each character he played left little bits in him, whether Brown’s sexy dance moves or Marshall’s liking for fine outfits. But Robinson taught him he should confront the world squarely, calmly, and think he was infallible. He had not been too good at doing that, in his past. Growing up in South Carolina, even well after the Civil Rights Act, he had been run off the road by rednecks, called “boy” and passed by trucks that flew Confederate flags. He had faced it, and failed at facing it. Now, in playing his characters, he could relive those things and respond in a different way.

无论是布朗性感的舞姿还是马歇尔对精致服装的热爱，查德维克·博斯曼扮演过的每个角色都在他身上留下了或多或少的痕迹。但是，罗宾逊教会他对待这个世界要坦荡而冷静，也要坚信自己的正确。之前，查德维克·博斯曼从未习惯这样看待自己。他在南卡罗来纳州长大，在那里，即便《民权法案》已经颁布了很久，他还是会被保守的当地人喊成“臭小子”赶出马路，还能见到插着南方邦联旗的卡车在他身边呼啸而过。他想从容面对但最终还是作罢。而现在，他可以在扮演的角色中重现这些情景，再以全然不同的方式回应。

注：

1. redneck: If someone describes a white man, especially a lower class American from the countryside, as a redneck, they disapprove of him because they think he is uneducated and has strong, unreasonable opinions. 红脖子，乡巴佬（尤指美国社会底层的乡下人，受教育程度较低，想法固执片面）（选自Collins）

2. boy, 在美国俚语中是白人对黑人的蔑称，“小子”，带有贬义。

3. Confederate: connected with the Confederate States （美国内战期间）南部邦联的

He prepared as thoroughly as possible. For “42” he spent weeks learning to play baseball like a pro. Mick Jagger helped him with “Get on Up”, teaching him how to tease and seduce an audience. He dug deep into the backstories of the characters, filling out their weaker sides and their humanity. It was important to walk in their shoes through the world. Black characters on screen were too often one-dimensional, as if they were second-class.

查德维克·博斯曼每次都为演绎角色竭尽全力，为了演好《42号传奇》的罗宾逊，他花了数周时间学习像职业球员一样打棒球。拍摄《激乐人心》时，他向米克·贾格尔学习怎样吸引、逗趣观众。他会深入挖掘各个人物的背景，丰盈人物的弱点，使人性更饱满。从每个人物的视角来体会这个世界尤为重要。此前黑人角色仿佛低人一等，荧幕上的角色都很单薄扁平。

Yet the fictitious role of T’Challa and his kingdom of Wakanda engaged him even more. This was a work of recovery, the celebration of a severed African past that belonged to all black people. Every part of it had to be properly done. It was he who insisted the cast spoke Xhosa, with its clicks and smacks. He found it beautiful and rhythmical, like ancient music. He helped devise the salute, which reminded him of tomb effigies of the pharaohs. (In 2016 he had played Thoth in “Gods of Egypt”, the one face of African descent among them, taking the part only because, without him, there would have been none.) For close combat he studied Zulu stick-fighting and Dambe boxing from west Africa. Costumes, sets and moves fused together different aspects of the continent he loved, a mixing and reconnection that went to his own roots: almost the moment he got the part, he had his DNA tested and found he was Yoruba from Nigeria and Limba from Sierra Leone. Last, he reinforced the film’s relevance by making T’Challa a peacemaker in the Mandela mould while his nemesis Killmonger, his abandoned cousin, was inspired by Malcolm X. That echoed a conversation he had long had with himself: forbearance, or violence.

然而，虚构角色特查拉和他的瓦坎达王国尤为吸引他。这是一部关于复苏的电影，是对分裂的非洲历史的礼赞，而非洲的过去属于所有黑人。电影的每一部分都必须准确无误。是他再三坚持演员一定要讲带着语调有着特殊吸气辅音的科萨语。他发现科萨语很像古代的音乐，优美而富有节奏。他联想到法老的墓像，协助设计了致敬动作。（2016年，他在电影《神战：权力之眼》中扮演唯一位非洲裔的神托特，只因若他不参演，便无其他演员承担此角色。）为了演好近身搏斗，他研究了祖鲁人的棍棒战和西非的丹比拳击。影片涉及的服装、布景以及动作都融合了他热爱的非洲元素，这样的融合及重新联系也带他找到了自己的根：在他快得到这个角色时，他进行了DNA检测，发现自己有尼日利亚的约鲁巴人及塞拉利昂的林巴人血统。最后，他把特查拉塑造成一位曼德拉式的调停人，让这部影片更具现实意义，而他的宿敌——被抛弃的表兄克尔芒戈这一角色则是受到马尔科姆·X的启发。这也呼应了他内心长久以来的挣扎：究竟是忍耐，还是诉诸暴力。

注：

马尔科姆·X：非洲裔的穆斯林人权活动家，原名马尔科姆·利特尔（Malcolm Little）。早年曾是不学无术的街头混混，后来在监狱中自学并加入黑人穆斯林组织，出狱后积极参加传教活动，为争取黑人的民主权利而斗争，与马丁·路德·金并称为20世纪中期美国历史上最著名的两位黑人领导人。与马丁·路德·金的非暴力斗争策略形成鲜明对比，马尔科姆主站沟通过暴力革命的方式获取黑人权利。其父亲厄尔·利特尔在公民权利问题上言辞激烈，在马尔科姆四岁时死于非命。他认为Little这个姓是美国白人强加给他们的，原姓是个未知数，于是改姓X。

The film’s huge success was difficult in one way. As an actor he worked at his craft by observing people. He had existed in the shadows, watching from a back table as he sipped a vegan smoothie or dined on Brussels sprouts. He liked to hide. Now people spotted him from the end of the street and chased after him, a star. But in all other ways success had to be good, well beyond the audience reaction. It showed the Hollywood moguls that a thoroughly black film was viable and bankable. It opened the way, or ought to, for substantial roles for more black actors. There were countless stories in their culture that had not yet been told. Or not by them.

在某种意义上，电影的巨大成功在某些方面也制造了难题。作为演员，他靠观察（各种各样的人）来打磨演技。从前他一直在身居幕后，一边小口抿着纯素奶昔或吃着球芽甘蓝，一边观察人们。他喜欢藏起来。现在，人们能从街头巷尾认出他这个大明星，并且四处跟随他。但除此以外，电影成功带来了方方面面的好处，也远远不止观众的反应。电影向那些好莱坞大亨证明，一部完完全全由黑人执掌的电影也是可行的、能赚钱的。这部电影的成功已经或者应该会为黑人演员担任重要的角色开辟了道路。黑人的文化里有数不尽的故事还未被道出。或者说，没有由黑人之口道出。

A storyteller was how he saw himself, part of an ancient tradition in both Africa and the West. When a friend had been shot dead in high school, writing a play about it seemed the best way to channel his emotions. Later, forging a path as an actor-director in New York, he wrote a hip-hop play on classic themes, “Deep Azure”, based on the shooting of a young black man by a black policeman. That victim, he explained, was not just another casualty lost to violence. He was a would-be leader, a would-be king.

他自视为一个讲故事的人，非洲和西方都有这个古老传统的角色。高中时，他的朋友被枪杀，他抒发感情的最好方式便是就此写一部剧本。后来，作为一名演员兼导演在纽约努力发展的时候，他以经典的“深邃天空”为主题，在基于黑人警察枪杀黑人青年的事件写了一部嘻哈音乐剧。他解释说，那位受害者不只是暴力的又一件牺牲品，而他本将会成为领袖，本将为王。

He was already a king in the public mind when his cancer took hold. He went on making films with as much vitality and as full a laugh as before. “Black Panther II” was on: he was in the Marvel teaser, regally striding as before. One of his last texts, to his white co-star in “Marshall”, urged him to inhale, exhale and enjoy the rare rain that was falling on Los Angeles. Fate was pushing him down, but he confronted it. For as long as he could, he said “No.” 

罹患癌症时，他早已成为大众心里的王。他继续拍电影，像过去一样充满活力和欢笑。《黑豹2》开拍了：在漫威的前导预告里，他仍然是那个王者般阔步向前的黑豹。在他最后的短信中，有一条是发给他在电影《马歇尔》的白人搭档，搭档敦促他要呼气、吸气，好好享受洛杉矶珍贵的雨。命运压迫着他，但是他坦然面对。只要还有一丝力气，他都会说“不！”

注：

1. take hold: to start to have a definite effect 开始起作用，产生影响

2. teaser: 前导预告，广告

翻译组：

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Lixia，女，爱爬山的健身小白，美食狂人

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人

过激？不过激？ 

“To be a King”,所有关于Boseman逝世的报道多少都有这样的形容。其实他本人跟什么皇族贵族血统是半点关系都没有的，为什么这么称呼？自然源自那部复联史上最高票房的《黑豹》了。

 其实《黑豹》无论上映初还是上映后伴随着高票房的，一直都是巨大的争议。其中最大的争议，就是电影艺术是否献媚于政治正确？难道拼命强化黑人的元素，不是另外一种种族主义么？这一切是否过激？

 其实这种类似的争议，我们最近听到了很多。

 美国最近风起云涌的非裔族群集体抗议，就传出来推倒总统像,下架《飘》，抵制《老友记》，而被人质疑，种族过激。

 大火的《乘风破浪的姐姐们》，由于最后一场总决赛请了一堆的男明星，引来网络疯狂吐槽，被质疑，文化过激。

 《脱口秀大会》其中一期杨笠对男性的疯狂吐槽，也被质疑女权过激......

对呀，2020年已经这么乱了，为什么还要这么多的“过激”，为什么不能现世安稳，岁月静好......

 《飘》是我言情小说的启蒙，对于我来说是救赎一般的存在，当我沮丧难过的时候，随手翻到梅兰妮为斯嘉丽痛骂邻里的话，总会让我感动于友情的伟大，看到瑞德为斯嘉丽费劲心力，又让我着迷于爱情的美好，这么伟大的书，要抵制到不能售卖？自然“过激”！

《老友记》是我的口语敲门砖，也是我生活的背景音乐，不记得听了多少遍，只知道那句“人生不如意，重看老友记”。这么美好的关于爱情、友情、亲情全方位进行诠释的电视剧，要被抵制到不能播放？自然“过激”！

 虽然除了前两期，后面基本上就没有再对“浪姐”进行持续性的关注，可是我也觉得，一个总决赛，多请了几个男艺人么，节目组觉得OK，观众不想看到某位“好男人”，不看便是。群起挞伐到冲上热搜？太“过激”！

 说实话，《脱口秀大会》里面杨笠是我喜欢的人之一（最爱的早已自我放弃，愿他不要自闭）。可是我也觉得她复联的段子比这次的要好很多，男人虽然万般不好，但“垃圾”？不至于不至于，“过激”！

 可是......为什么？

 为什么《飘》里面那么明显的对于南方黑奴制度的怀念和对3K党的同情，长时间以来没有引起讨论？（一直到电影《飘》上映的时候有被抵制和批判）

 为什么强调多元化美国，最地道的美剧，《老友记》讨论了同性婚姻，婚内出轨，女性独立等等等等，对一切的人世间的事物、事情都充满了包容性，偏偏6位主演，整整10年间谈的无数次恋爱中，没有一个非裔族群，这真的难道只是巧合？还是某些偏见，普遍到无人觉得有异？

为什么撒谎卖人设，人设崩塌后“好男人”就可以上大火综艺，“污点”女艺人就连直播都要被骂到刷屏？

 何为过激？有没有标准？我觉得是有的。

 任何上升到个体的侮辱甚至暴力，无疑都是过激，我不支持一切暴力，无论是网络还是现实。可是关于一件哪怕是、尤其是我们已经习以为常的事情的广泛讨论，双向思考，难道不应该？难道也是过激？

 前一段时间的大学顶替事件，舆论在受害者角度批判过一段时间后，发生了逆转，觉得“受害者”也没有那么纯洁无瑕，不是一个完美“受害者”，声援她的声音过于“过激”！于是舆论逆转，渐渐变为对“受害者”的批判与讽刺。不可笑吗？一件从制度到人性百分之百都出现问题的事件，最后被检讨最多的是那个百分之一百的受害者和声援她的声音。背后的强权呢？不公不义呢？制度漏洞呢？人性无耻呢？都躲在对于“过激”舆论的批判中，被轻轻放过了。

 再往远一点儿说，早些年春节联欢晚会还真的可以“联欢”的时候，当家头牌自然是赵本山，可是赵本山是靠什么起家的？模仿盲人。靠着盲人算命，和一些特有神态的模仿，当做笑料，在全国人民面前播放，无人觉得不妥。当时被他逗笑的人中，也许也有盲人，社会对他们的调侃已经让他们自己都不觉得不妥，可是，你怎知那笑容中没有苦涩？

 待到后来，民智渐开，越来越多的人觉得这种小品中存在的歧视是如此不妥，于是我们现在不要说是央视，普通卫视上面你也看不到这种以身障人士取笑为内容的节目。谁能否认这是社会的进步，可是当年第一个提出质疑的那个人，难道没有被批判“过激”？

 作为一个幼少儿英语教育工作者，我很早以前就发现，英美很多绘本、教材中会有意识的把一群小朋友中安排一个小朋友是坐轮椅的，没有刻意点出，但是画面中坐在轮椅上的小朋友和其它孩子没有不同，一样一起玩游戏一起唱歌欢笑，如果不刻意观察你都不会感觉到那个孩子坐在轮椅上，可是如果是一个坐轮椅的小朋友，当他看到的一本绘本都是一些健康的孩子在一起欢乐游戏，另一本却告诉他，即使是坐在轮椅上也是可以和其他的小朋友玩在一起的，你觉得，对这个孩子而言，他会不会感觉到不同？

 漫天大雨，落在我头上的才是雨滴。我们对事物的感知从来都是如此。从来没有什么感同身受，子非鱼，不要妄图揣测鱼之悲喜。只要不上升到人格的侮辱和暴力，我支持一切的理性讨论哪怕是适度的冲突。冲突、妥协、进步。我们社会就是这么前进的，你以为的习以为常岁月静好，怎知不是因为有人受尽委屈，暗自隐忍？

 几千年的中华文明，奉若圭臬的一直是中庸，我们强调的是自扫门前雪，枪打出头鸟。也许加一些可爱的小“过激”，可以推动我们这位文明老者，缓步前行。

 愿君一生，头角峥嵘，不负少年。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

经济学人科技 || 脑机接口：猪也能开车

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491662&idx=1&sn=4f5620e7d39c798dc323f82d45dec8c2&chksm=fba3b3e9ccd43aff7942490baff690576f2ff9cd64669b9a3eaf620ab8c2c813e00c593671c6#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
琚儿，英专，备考翻硕，外刊学习者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 And Pigs May Drive

猪也能开车

英文部分选自经济学人20200905期科技版块

Brain-computer interfaces

脑机接口

And Pigs May Drive

猪也能开车

A pig now has one of Elon Musk’s implants in its brain

埃隆·马斯克团队在一头猪的大脑里植入了一块芯片

扩展阅读：活猪脑机接口试验成功：可实时读取脑电波
https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20200829A0MBQH00

In idle moments, people sometimes dream about the future. Of cars that can drive themselves. Of travelling to other planets. Of moving objects by the power of thought. Whichever particular dream you have, though, Elon Musk is probably trying to make it real. Self-driving cars and travel to Mars are the provinces of two of his firms, Tesla and SpaceX respectively. Moving objects by the power of thought is the province of a third, Neuralink. And on August 28th, at a presentation broadcast over the internet, Mr Musk showed off the firm’s progress. The highlight was the appearance of Gertrude, a pig with a chip implanted into her brain.

闲暇时光，人们就会时不时地（sometimes和“偶尔”频率上还是有点区别的）畅想未来，想象可以自动驾驶的汽车，想象前往其他的星球，想象仅凭意念就能移动物体。然而，不管你的梦想具体是什么，或许，埃隆·马斯克正在尝试让你的梦想成真。他旗下的特斯拉公司正在研究自动驾驶汽车，SpaceX则正在实现迈向火星的梦想。另外，同归马斯克所有的Neuralink公司旨在实现第三个梦想：用意念移动物体。8月28日，马斯克先生在一次直播展示中，骄傲地展示了Neuralink的研究进展，而格尔图德（Gertrude) （一头大脑当中植入了芯片的猪）的登场将整场展示推上了高潮。

Reading the brain’s electrical signals, a technique called electroencephalography (EEG), started more than 100 years ago and is now routine. It generally involves placing electrodes non-invasively on the scalp, though it sometimes requires the invasive insertion of wires into the scalp or the brain itself.

读取大脑电信号的技术，即所谓的脑电图技术 (EEG)诞生于一百多年前，到现在，已经是一项常规技术，脑电图是一种非侵入式技术，通常只需要在头皮上放置电极。不过，有时脑电图技术也是侵入式的，需要将电线嵌入头皮、甚至大脑。

Non-invasive EEG provides useful information, and can even be employed to do things like playing simple computer games via software which interprets the signals received and turns them into instructions. It is, though, a crude approach to monitoring the activity of an organ that contains 85bn nerve cells and trillions of connections between them. Invasive EEG offers higher resolution readings from those nerve cells, albeit at greater risk because of the surgery involved. The device Gertrude carries, known technically as a brain-computer interface (BCI), carries invasiveness one stage further still by making the EEG recorder a potentially permanent implant.

非侵入式脑电图技术可以提供有用的信息，甚至还能通过破解接收到的电信号、并将其转换为指令，来帮助人们玩简易的电脑游戏等。然而，若要监测一个包含850亿神经细胞和数以万亿的细胞连接点的大脑活动，这种技术显得粗糙了。侵入式脑电图获得的有关神经元活动数据更为精确。然而，由于该技术需要实施外科手术，风险相对较高。猪猪格尔图德可能被永久性地植入芯片，并使用脑电图记录大脑活动，在技术层面上，这叫做脑机接口（BCI），这种方式比前面提到的侵入性更强。

扩展阅读：如何评价伊隆·马斯克创办的脑机接口公司 Neuralink ？

https://www.zhihu.com/question/57713553/answer/154395266?utm_source=wechat_session&utm_medium=social&utm_oi=719981443886907392

Signals from implants such as this might be employed to control a prosthetic limb, or even a real one that brain or spinal-cord injury has deprived of its normal nerve connections. They might also be used to control non-medical machinery, if someone thought it worth the risk of having a BCI implanted to do this. And it is possible to use them to send signals in the opposite direction, too, to give instructions to the brain rather than receive them. That might be used to generate signals which suppress an incipient epileptic seizure.

该植入装置发出的信号可以控制假肢，甚至控制那些因大脑或脊髓损伤而导致神经传达功能丧失的真肢。如果有人认为冒风险植入脑机接口是值得的，它们也可以用来（非医疗）操控机器。反向的信号传输 也是可行的，即向大脑发送指令而不是接收来自大脑的信号。也许能通过这种方式发送信号来抑制早期癫痫发作。

Neuralink’s BCI, the size of a British tuppenny piece, carries 1,000 flexible electrode threads, each of which has a diameter less than a quarter of that of a human hair. This flexibility is important because the brain moves around in the skull and the electrodes must be able to accommodate this movement while continuing to work. The device communicates wirelessly, and is recharged by induction. This means that, unlike many previous attempts to build BCIs, it requires no skin-penetrating cable that might admit infections to the body.

Neuralink公司的脑机接口芯片只有两便士大小，包含了一千条柔软的电极线，每根线的直径还不到人类头发的四分之一。电极线的柔软度十分重要，因为大脑组织在颅骨中不断移动，而电极线必须适应大脑的运动，同时还要持续工作。该设备以无线方式进行信息传输，并通过电磁感应充电。这意味着，与之前的脑机接口设备不同，新设备并不植入那些可能导致感染的皮肤渗透线。

Along with this improved interface Neuralink has built a robot that will implant it. To do so, the robot first takes a high-resolution scan of the recipient’s brain. Using this, it is able to sew the electrode threads into place with a precision that avoids any blood vessels in the area. That, Mr Musk said, reduces the risk of damage during surgery. The robot can put the interface in place in less than an hour, he said, though it cannot yet open the skull in order to do so. General anaesthesia is not, he said, needed for the procedure.

Neuralink公司不仅改进了接口，还开发了一台用于操作植入手术的机器人。这台机器人首先会对受术者的大脑进行高清扫描，通过这种方法，能够准确避开该部位的血管，并植入电极线。马斯克表示，这可以降低手术伤害的风险。他还说，尽管这款机器人目前还无法做开颅手术，但它能在不到一小时内完成植入手术。并且，这类手术将不需要全身麻醉。

扩展阅读：

1. 详解马斯克Neuralink 外科手术机器人

https://m.ithome.com/html/506084.htm

2.马斯克「脑机接口」：Neuralink 芯片硬币大小，机器人植入，猪先试了…

https://m.sohu.com/a/415471496_642250

The highlight of the show, though, was not Mr Musk’s presentation but rather the arrival of Gertrude. Her BCI is connected to nerve cells in a part of her brain called the olfactory bulb. As she snuffled around her pen searching for food, and also sniffed her handler’s hand, a display showed the electrical activity which those cells were manifesting in response to these stimuli.

（整场发布会的）高光时刻不是马斯克的演讲，而是格尔图德的登场。格尔图德的脑机接口连接的是她大脑中叫做嗅球的部分。她一边沿着猪圈嗅食物，一边嗅工作人员的手，屏幕上则呈现了她的神经元细胞对刺激做出反应的活动状态。

Not everyone is impressed. Andrew Jackson, a professor of neural interfaces at Newcastle University, commented that there was not anything “revolutionary” in the presentation, saying it was “solid engineering but mediocre neuroscience”. Mr Musk replied, in a tweet, that it was common for academia to undervalue the benefits of bringing ideas to fruition.

不过并非人人都对此表示赞叹。纽卡斯尔大学神经接口教授安德鲁·杰克逊（Andrew Jackson）评论说，演讲并没有“革命性”的内容，工程本身确实不错，但神经科学方面并没有很超前。马斯克在推文中回应，学术界普遍低估创意付诸实践所带来的利好。

Pig headed

猪头

Admiration will surely increase if and when Neuralink performs on people a similar procedure to that which Gertude has undergone. The firm received a “breakthrough device designation” from America’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in July. This means the FDA thinks the gadget shows promise (in this case for the treatment of paraplegia), and offers it a faster pathway for regulatory review.

如果Neuralink将猪猪格特鲁德相类似的植入芯片的程序运用到人类身上，自然会赢得更多人的认可。Neuralink 于今年 7 月获得了美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）授予的“突破性医疗器械认定”，表明了FDA对该设备潜力的肯定，也为其开放了日后监管审查的快车道。

The next challenge the firm wants to tackle is that of sending electrical signals into the brain. Mr Musk says this will require a range of inputs, as some brain areas require delicate stimulation while others take a “lot of current”. The point of doing so will be to establish two-way communications. This could allow entirely new areas of treatment to be explored. Besides epilepsy suppression, some think that such brain stimulation might also work to treat depression and anxiety. More important in the long run, it is also essential to Mr Musk’s vision of widespread engagement, at a neurological level, between people and machines. This, he hopes, will result in a future in which memories can be downloaded and stored elsewhere, and human beings can form a “symbiosis” with artificial intelligence.

公司想要解决的下一个难题就是如何将电子信号发送到大脑中。马斯克表示，由于大脑中的一些区域只需要微刺激，而另一些区域则需要获得“大量电流”刺激，因此，若想解决该难题，输入量应该在一定范围内是可变的。这样做的意义在于保证双向沟通。如此一来，人们就可以探索全新的治疗领域。除了抑制癫痫发作，有人认为这种脑部刺激也可以治疗抑郁和焦虑。长远来看，更重要的是，马斯克在关于人类与机器在神经层面广泛接触的愿景，该技术也至关重要。在未来他希望通过这种方式，可以下载并存储记忆于大脑以外的地方，人类和人工智能从而形成一种共生关系。

Critics worry that Neuralink is too secretive, and that Mr Musk’s vision promises more than he can deliver. He does, though, have a record of doing what he says he is going to, albeit sometimes not as rapidly as he says he will. He more-or-less single-handedly introduced battery-electric cars to the market and he built a successful space-rocket business out of nothing. Brains are a lot more complicated than cars, and even than rocket science. But do not bet against the coming into being at some point of the Musk vision of brains and computers collaborating directly.

有评论家担心Neuralink太过于私密，而且马斯克展望的愿景已超出他能履行的范围。尽管有时行动的进展确实没有马斯克自己说的那样迅速，但他的确是在身体力行实现其承诺。他几乎是单枪匹马地将电动汽车推向市场，又从无到有成功建立了一家航空火箭公司。大脑远比汽车复杂，甚至比火箭科学还复杂得多。但也不要就此认定，马斯克愿景中的人机直接协作的情景不会在未来某个时刻成真。

扩展阅读：马斯克的脑机接口仍只是捕风捉影

https://k.sina.cn/article_5044281310_12ca99fde02001dcz0.html?wm=13500_0055&vt=4

翻译组： 

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49
Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿

Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

校核组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

 接着数字身份证讲，如果数字大脑实现了，那么数字身份证是必然的结果，因为在大脑数字化以后，对于从表面看来都是一串二进制符号的个体而言，恐怕要区分其物理层面的不同就很难了，所以每个人的数字身份证就从之前所言的政府向百姓强推变成了百姓倒逼政府必须制定唯一能识别自己的身份代表物，否则在芸芸众生之中，你很难成为一个区别于其他“人”的人了。这时候大概也没人会在意自己的隐私是否会被泄露（我想是采取与当下信用化货币类似的信用体系来明面上确保这点，实际效果如何看看目前信用货币的情况便能窥得一二了），因为相对于隐私，人们必然会更加看中生存，这大概就是我们当下社会的百姓对于隐私是如此不在乎：一、吃饱了才能谈隐私，二、就算谈了也不管用。

 这一切都是建立在大脑被数字化之后才可能讨论的一些奇妙的化学反应，但我更加关心和希望讨论的却恰恰是大脑数字化这个过程本身，其中最重要的一点便是：我们中的部分人或许可能会永生。这可是一个永远伴随我们的话题。我个人认为如果记忆能够被复制，那便算作是人能够被复制了，虽然很可能复制后的行为会大相径庭，但是生活中的经验是如果一个人性情大变，我们还是会认为是同一个人，只不过变性（格）了而已，并不认为是两个人（虽然有俗话说好像换了个人似的，那终究也只是好像）。尽管我猜一定会有法律规定每份记忆的载体只能同时只有一个。就好像“致命魔术”里那样，安吉尔始终都只会有一个拥有记忆的载体存在于世（否则问题可就大了），但是一旦生命不是由上帝单独掌控时，人类社会的基础便开始崩塌了，因为没有人愿意永生永世受别人摆布（这大概也是各种宗教最吸引人的地方），因为掌权者可以通过复制自己的记忆来达到实际意义上的永生，所以人类大概会重新洗牌了，在新的框架下构建出具有新逻辑的社会体系，这必然是一段痛苦曲折的过程，甚至于有可能还没形成新的平衡前就瓦解灭亡了。

 虽然是一段看似神奇的将来，但也潜藏着无可限量的破坏力，这就是科学的力量，它能够将人类固有的认知通过现实打碎掉，没有人可以例外，除了死亡之外，大概科学的规律是最公平的了，但在将来，可能死亡也不是一件公平的事了。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day446

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491662&idx=2&sn=143049829da1256cef201dfef4e72274&chksm=fba3b3e9ccd43aff3b10cfcc023ad5ad6c58ae06ed7c40274ba5ce09e0b207d0c2423f480c5b#rd

无论生活如何对待你，

我们都要学会轻松的调侃生活，

不为其牵绊，

化挫折为动力。

---End---

经济学人财经 || 美联储强调充分就业的举措可能引发一种全球趋势

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491651&idx=1&sn=d30868c5e626313a3f413807908dff9b&chksm=fba3b3e4ccd43af22fa734e5fae6dc96d480758bbf158cbfbb0397130fb69207c34e79afa0c1#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

New job description

新职责描述

英文部分选自经济学人20200905期财经版块

 The Federal Reserve

美联储

New job description

新职责描述

The Fed’s move to emphasise full employment could start a global trend

美联储强调充分就业的举措可能引发一种全球趋势

In 2018, when America’s long recovery from the 2007-09 financial crisis pushed the unemployment rate below 4%, the Federal Reserve had a simple message for American workers: do not get used to it. The central bank’s economic projections revealed that its officials believed 4.5% to be the lowest sustainable jobless rate, to which America would need to return to stop inflation surging upwards. If higher interest rates and slower growth were needed to achieve that, so be it.

当2007-09年金融危机后，美国经历了中长期复苏，2018年失业率降至4%以下。此时，美联储向美国工作者传达了一条简单的信息：别沉浸于此。中央银行的经济预测显示，官方认为4.5%是最低的可持续性失业率，美国需要回到该水平以阻止通货膨胀上升。如果需要加息和放缓增长来实现这一目标，那也得这么做。

注释：

so be it: used for saying that you accept a situation in which something has been decided or is necessary, although you are not happy about it.

On August 27th Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, acknowledged what common sense suggested two years before: that an intentional increase in unemployment is an odd thing to pursue after nearly 20 years of depressed labour-market conditions. Speaking at an annual central-banking shindig, Mr Powell unveiled the conclusions of a monetary-policy strategy review begun in 2019. The coming changes to Fed policymaking could initiate an important global shift in central-bank practice.

8月27日，美联储主席杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔承认了两年前就明摆着的常识，在低迷的劳动力市场状况持续了20年后，故意提高失业率是一件奇怪的事情。鲍威尔在一年一度的中央银行会议上发表讲话，发布了自2019年开始的货币政策战略评估的结论。美联储政策制定即将发生变化，这可能会引发全球范围内央行业务的重大转变。

注释：

1. intentional：故意的；有意的；存心的

2. unveiled：为…揭幕；揭开…上的覆盖物；拉开…的帷幔

The Fed’s old framework was forged by the inflationary tumult of the 1970s. Post-war economists understood there to be a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment—known as the Phillips curve—such that policymakers could push unemployment as low as they liked, provided they were prepared to accept more inflation. But soaring prices persuaded many that this relationship did not hold below some minimum sustainable level of unemployment. Attempts to push joblessness lower would yield higher inflation, but at best only a temporary reduction in unemployment. By the 1990s, most central banks had resolved to target a low level of inflation, generally around 2%.

美联储的旧框架是在20世纪70年代的通胀动荡中形成的。战后经济学家们认识到，通胀与失业之间存在一种负相关关系，即菲利普斯曲线（Phillips curve）。因此只要准备好接受更高的通胀，政策制定者就可以将失业率降至他们喜欢的水平。但飞涨的物价让许多人相信，在某个最低可持续失业水平以下，两者关系不再适用。试图降低失业率会导致更高的通胀率，但最多只能暂时降低失业率。到了20世纪90年代，大多数央行都下定决心将通胀目标控制在一个在较低水平，通常为2%左右。

注释：

forged：v. 锻造，铸造；缔造，艰苦做成；伪造；稳步前进，匀速移动

But since the embrace of inflation targeting in the 1990s, the relationship between employment and inflation has weakened. Soaring joblessness during the Great Recession failed to produce the expected plunge in prices. Neither have low levels of unemployment since then ended an era of historically low inflation. Precisely why the relationship between inflation and joblessness changed is uncertain. Some economists reckon central banks’ credibility in managing inflation anchored the public’s expectations too well. Others point to a decline in workers’ bargaining power, which has eased the pressure on firms to raise prices in order to cover the cost of expensive pay packets. Still others point to technological change and globalisation, which expand consumer options and allow firms to respond to increased demand without raising prices. Whatever the cause, the flattening Phillips curve biased monetary policy in an overly hawkish way, eventually prompting the Fed rethink.

但自20世纪90年代引入通胀目标以来，就业与通胀之间的相关性已经减弱。大萧条期间飙升的失业率未能导致预期的价格暴跌。从那时起，低失业率也没能终结历史性的低通胀时代。通胀和失业之间的关系发生变化的准确原因尚不确定。一些经济学家认为，央行在通胀管理方面的公信力过于牢靠地锚定了公众的预期。另一些人指出，工人议价能力的下降缓解了企业为支付高昂的工资成本而提高价格的压力。还有一些人指出，技术变革和全球化扩大了消费者的选择，使企业能够在不涨价的情况下应对需求的增加。无论原因是什么，平坦化的菲利普斯曲线使货币政策过于偏向鹰派，最终促使美联储重新思考。

注释：

1. plunge：If an amount or rate plunges, it decreases quickly and suddenly. 骤降

2. hawkish：鹰派的，强硬派的，在美联储货币政策上偏向紧缩，如加息。对应为dovish，鸽派，温和的，偏向宽松的货币政策，如降息。

The changes to its framework may seem modest. Because the maximum sustainable level of employment cannot be measured, the Fed will give up worrying about overshooting it and focus only on employment shortfalls. The 2% inflation target remains a constraint, but a more flexible one than before. It should be hit on average, Mr Powell explained, meaning that periods of below-target inflation can be offset by at least some time with inflation above the target as well.

框架的变化似乎并不显著。由于无法衡量最大可持续就业水平，美联储将放弃对过度就业的担忧，转而只关注就业不足。2%的通胀目标仍然是一个制约因素，但相比以往更加灵活。鲍威尔解释道，通胀应平均地达到这一水平，意味着低于通胀目标的时期至少可以被某个超过通胀目标的时期所抵消。

注释：

overshoot：If a government or organization overshoots its budget, it spends more than it had planned to. 超出

But the conceptual change—abandoning the notion of a minimum sustainable unemployment rate—is significant. And the practical effects could be large. Had the Fed enjoyed more freedom in recent years, it could have raised interest rates more gradually, or not at all, enabling a faster and more complete labour-market recovery.

但放弃最低可持续失业率是重大的概念转变，而且实际影响可能很大。如果近年来美联储拥有更多的自由，它可能会更加循序渐进地提高利率，或者根本不提高利率，从而实现更快、更全面的劳动力市场复苏。

注释：

conceptual：Conceptual means related to ideas and concepts formed in the mind. 概念的

Whether policy will change much in practice is as yet unclear. Markets, for their part, appear not to see a radical change of regime in the offing. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are around 1.7%, below the Fed’s 2% target. American stockmarkets, which seem to soar at the gentlest of nudges, have rallied, some hitting record highs in the past week. More important is the reaction in foreign-exchange markets. The greenback has slipped nearly 1% against a basket of major currencies since Mr Powell’s speech, bringing its total decline since May to about 8%. A weakening dollar could indicate that markets see more room for policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, whose mandate does not explicitly require it to minimise joblessness.

政策是否在实践中改变很多尚不明确。就市场而言，其体制似乎不会立即发生彻底变化。基于市场的通胀预期指标接近1.7%，低于美联储2%的目标。美国股市似乎在最温和的刺激下就会大涨，目前已经反弹，一些股票在上周创下历史最高点。外汇市场的反应更为重要。自鲍威尔演讲以来，美元兑一篮子主要货币已下跌近1%，自五月以来总计下跌约8%。越来越疲软的美元意味着，市场认为美联储和其他中央银行之间存在更大政策差异的空间，尤其是欧洲中央银行，该行获得的的授权没有明确要求将失业率降至最低。

Under any circumstances, the macroeconomic developments which led the Fed to revise its strategy would no doubt have influenced other central banks to adjust their own policies. But in weak advanced economies with interest rates close to zero, currency appreciation against the dollar places a drag on spending which cannot easily be offset by further easing. The Fed may thus find that its modest adjustment encourages imitators elsewhere in surprisingly short order.

在任何情况下，导致美联储修改策略的宏观经济状况，无疑都会促使其他央行调整各自的政策。但在利率接近零的疲软先进经济体中，相对美元的货币升值会阻碍消费，并且无法轻易被更大程度的宽松政策所抵消。美联储或因此发现，微调在极短时间内鼓励了其他地方的模仿者。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Jessie Lulu，女，金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

 任何一种货币政策在施行的时候，它的相反面总是看上去更加美好。为了抑制通胀而采取的偏紧的货币政策，让不得不承受更高失业率的经济更渴望流动性充裕的政策；而边际宽松的货币政策带来的通胀率与资产泛滥，让人们渴望更紧的货币政策。世界上并没有一种完美的货币政策，能够兼顾到所有变量的政策在经济学中是没有的，这意味着政策制定者不得不谨慎选择手中拥有的工具，以折衷的方式来调控经济（包括政策制定者应不应该、是否有能力调控经济，这个问题本身在经济学领域也是争论不休的，所以政策制定者在多大程度上调控经济这件事也是折衷的，原因是政策制定者也不是完美的）。

 菲利普斯曲线的逐渐失真，可能与经济运行的微观结构有关。原因可能是：1）货币并没有流入通胀率所对应的一揽子商品中，最典型的不属于通胀率囊括的商品为金融资产和房地产；2）货币确实流入了通胀率所对应的一揽子商品中，但是提供这些商品的厂商选择固定价格不变，一般来说只有龙头效应明显的厂商会选择这么做；3）通胀率所对应的一揽子商品不具备代表性，比如通胀率商品篮子目录要经过3-10年更新一次导致这个篮子太过过时，或者是并没有选择居民日常生活中具备典型性的商品进行统计。

 Fed的这次调整将显著影响美国日后的货币供应量，从原来的目标为2%通胀率调整为2%平均通胀率，其变化是史无前例的。更低的失业率是毫无疑问的，但是另一个隐患是，货币量的大幅伸缩会带来金融资产的大幅升贬，从而可能带来更大的贫富差距，就目前美国处于历史新高的贫富差距而言，这样的隐患是巨大的。在所有可选用的政策中，货币政策是最立竿见影的，但是它往往最不能够解决核心的长期问题。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day445

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491651&idx=2&sn=7bb39cf2b4c647813588f4ad5aeddeea&chksm=fba3b3e4ccd43af2cdbec14de4ca0b6563cabc02331d697bcf6852460437ecd8ad017939e13d#rd

人生如茶，

静心以对。

时光如水，

沉淀方澈。

---End---

每日一歌一图 || Day444

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491637&idx=2&sn=8aa764597dd85683ba349b10e53c272f&chksm=fba3b392ccd43a84d63a8b538b9ace2fc7e99e3484bfe78236ecffca45d60d104b51d72a30eb#rd

没有收拾残局的能力。

就别放纵善变的情绪。

---End---

经济学人社论 || 数字身份证（公益翻译不易，欢迎转发）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491626&idx=1&sn=f8534b4feb68e6c1e5548847bfcb2dbf&chksm=fba3b38dccd43a9bf91d4194383fd139d27955bd9e55d58af58aaf098c53204bf4f780b5de54#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

Leaders组组长华哥B 站视频（欢迎关注）

https://b23.tv/BV1ZZ4y1P7ow

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Time for proof

身份证明迫在眉睫

英文部分选自经济学人20200905期Leaders版块

Digital ID cards

数字身份证

Time for proof

身份证明迫在眉睫

Covid-19 has strengthened the case for digital identity systems

 新冠疫情凸显了数字身份系统的必要性。

The pandemic has had few silver linings. One is that a huge range of human activities have moved online far more smoothly than almost anyone expected. Businesses have let their white-collar staff work from home for half a year now. People are attending yoga classes remotely. Brits are appearing in court digitally; New Yorkers are tying the knot online.

疫情几乎没给人们带来什么好消息，不过这倒算是一件：大量人类活动在线上进行地极为顺利，远远超过所有人的预期。到目前为止，企业已安排白领员工在家工作了半年。人们会远程上瑜伽课。英国人以线上方式出庭；纽约人则在网上喜结连理。

Yet as they migrate to the virtual world, many people are discovering that they do not have the right documents to prove their identity. Businesses use credit cards, in effect, as a rough-and-ready proof that people are who they say. Governments cannot do that. Rather than simply exchanging goods for money, they give money away and issue commands, so they need to know more about their “customers” than, say, a supermarket does. In countries without a system of secure digital identities, the closure of bricks-and-mortar government offices and the shift of public services online have caused havoc . Divorces and adoptions have run into a virtual brick wall. Italy’s system for doling out emergency payments crashed and then demanded paperwork that applicants could not obtain because government offices were shut. In America, Washington state paid $650m in unemployment insurance to fraudsters who made applications using stolen identities.

然而，迁移到虚拟世界之后，许多人却发现，他们没有恰当的证件来证明自己的身份。实际上，做生意可以把信用卡当作粗略的现成证据，证明这就是本人，而政府却不能这样做。政府并不是简单地用商品换钱，而是把钱分发出去，并下达命令。因此，相比超市这样的组织，政府更需要了解自己的“顾客”。在缺少安全数字身份系统的国家，随着线下政府办公处关闭，公共服务转移到线上，混乱也随之而来。线上离婚和收养办理纷纷碰壁。意大利紧急资金发放系统崩溃，于是要求申请人提供办理所需的全部文件。但由于政府部门关闭，申请人无法获得。在美国，骗子使用被盗身份申请失业救济金，华盛顿州为此损失了6.5亿美元。

 No such havoc occurred in Estonia, a tiny Baltic state where every citizen has an electronic identity. More than just an identity card, it links every Estonian’s records together. So when the government created a furlough system for workers affected by the pandemic, it already knew where they worked and how to pay them. Nobody in Estonia had to join a queue on a pavement to claim benefits, as people in other places did.

此种混乱并没有出现在爱沙尼亚。在这个波罗的海小国，每位公民都拥有电子身份证明。它不仅仅是一张身份证，还可以将所有爱沙尼亚人的记录都连接在一起。因此在为饱受疫情冲击的工人打造带薪休假系统时，爱沙尼亚政府已经掌握了他们的工作场所和接收补助的渠道。在该国，没有任何人需要像其他国家的公民一样在路边排队领取救济金。

Other countries, such as Britain and America, have long resisted introducing a national identity system. Some fear that it would make it too easy for the government to spy on people, or would be too easy to hack, or would simply be botched by incompetent bureaucrats. Feelings run high. Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, once vowed that if he had to carry an id card and a bossy official demanded to see it, he would “physically eat it”.

其他国家，比如英国和美国，一直拒绝建立全国身份证明系统。有人担心，有了这样的系统，政府可以轻而易举地监视民众，或者该系统不是容易受到黑客攻击，就是会被办事不利的官员搞砸。民众的反对情绪十分强烈。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊曾表示，如果要求他随身携带身份证，盛气凌人的官员还要求他出示的话，他就“真的把它吃了”。

However, the pandemic has strengthened the case for a digital id. It would not only make it quicker and easier to access government services remotely. It would also make track-and-trace systems more effective. If, in an emergency such as the pandemic, health data were linked to work data, governments could quickly spot when a cluster of covid patients all happened to work at the same factory.

但疫情凸显了电子身份证明的必要性。有了它，通过远程方式获取政府服务将变得更加快捷容易，追踪系统也将变得更加有效。如果健康数据和就业数据早已打通，那么紧急情况下，比如流行病肆虐之际，如果出现聚集性新冠病例，政府可以很快发现这些病例都来自同一家工厂。

Worries about privacy and security can be allayed, albeit imperfectly. Estonians, who learned a healthy suspicion of Big Brother during five decades under the Soviet boot, are broadly reassured by a data-protection law and continually updated anti-hacking safeguards that include two-factor authentication. Similarly, laws can be passed to stop police from demanding to see people’s id cards. Autocratic regimes will abuse id systems, of course, but democratic governments can be constrained. Estonia’s system records every time a piece of data is viewed, and it is a crime for anyone, including officials, to access private information without good cause. That is a good model.

尽管民众对隐私和安全的担忧不能完全消除，但至少可以得到缓解。被苏联统治了50年，爱沙尼亚人对“老大哥”有所怀疑是正常的，但数据保护法和包括双重认证在内的不断更新的反黑客保障措施，让他们大体上放心。同样，可以通过法律禁止警察查看人们的身份证。当然，专制政权会滥用身份制度，但民主政府可以受到约束。每次数据被查看，爱沙尼亚的系统都会加以记录。就算是官员，如果没有正当理由访问私人信息都属犯罪。这是不错的模式。

Creating a digital id system is hard and expensive. Yet India, a gigantic and largely poor country, has managed it. Its “Aadhaar” biometric system has created digital identities for 1.3bn people. It has flaws: many Indians who were unable to register have suffered gravely from not being able to access services. But it has streamlined government services and massively reduced fraud. If rural Indians can prove who they are online, it is scandalous that many Brits and Americans cannot.

建立一个数字身份系统既困难又昂贵。然而，贫穷的人口大国——印度却做到了这一点。印度的“ Aadhaar”生物识别系统为13亿人创建了数字身份。它的确有缺陷: 许多无法登记的印度人因无法获得服务而遭受严重的痛苦。但是它精简了政府服务，大大减少了欺诈行为。如果印度的乡下人都能在线上证明自己的身份，而很多英国人和美国人却不能，这简直是丑闻一桩。

Digital id systems can be introduced gradually, building on pre-existing platforms. They do not have to be compulsory. If they are reasonably safe and reduce the hassle of dealing with the state, people will willingly sign up for them.

数字身份系统可以逐步引入到现有的平台上。它不一定是强制性的。如果它还算安全，并且减少了与政府打交道的麻烦，人们会愿意注册。

翻译组：

Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后
Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Desmond，男，即将读研，悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

有些事情，有些东西，往往都只能在一定的范围内可行，这个范围不仅指的是概念上的，也往往包括物理层面。不同地区的人皆有不同的风俗，对待事物的看法也不尽相同，但这其中最关键的却是一些起到支柱作用的理念，譬如有些地方把“集体”的利益看得最重，而有些地方则置个人权利于最高处。这个观念的形成固然受到历史和文化的作用，也和当局的管理理念颇有干系。

就拿文中的数字身份证来说，如果是某些习惯了到任何地方都要检查你实体身份证的环境，那数字化只会更加方便，虽然旁人，如鲍中堂般很可能会饱到打嗝，但是对于身处其中的人而言，这反而是件好事。但如果是那些“一生不羁放纵爱自由”的人，则不免会产生矛盾，而且这种矛盾是无法调和的，因为是理念上的区别，除非是塑形过了好几代人之后，才有可能变为现实。 

对于一个在黑暗中呆了太久的人，哪怕是一丝微弱的烛光，都能让其欣喜不已，但是习惯了整天沐浴在阳光下的孩子，无论如何是无法接受夜晚昏暗的灯火（其实都是矫情，所以我向来赞成严酷教育，温室呆太久了以为一切都是天然赐予，必然可得的，殊不知温室也是靠祖辈一砖一瓦搭建起来）。

但我会再想得深一点，既然数字身份证子民们可以接受，那么在不远将来的数字大脑呢（马斯克直呼内行）？所有人必须换成数字大脑，这样掌握你这小脑袋里面想些什么还不是易如反掌？我不确定到时候那些善良温顺的韭菜们是否就范，但是就算不肯你又能怎样呢？

这个场景是否很是熟悉？我们的尼奥又在哪里？

反抗终会来到，无论敌人有多么强大！

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day443

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491626&idx=2&sn=42d787e4dc32eb2f9c5c9dca2c3c2133&chksm=fba3b38dccd43a9b1d8fb0d8451a37ee57e293af428eb8d1de27331c11564ed8bdcdc1e64d19#rd

能走多久，靠的不是双脚，是志向，

鸿鹄志在苍宇，燕雀心系檐下；

能登多高，靠的不是身躯，是意志，

强者遇挫越勇，弱者逢败弥伤！

---End---

本周翻译预告（社论翻译组招人啦）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491616&idx=1&sn=17ac49bc37428744b29d274cb3ba2d84&chksm=fba3b387ccd43a91f5dd9ab6c0953e76ec8d04abd95783aca9fce6dc1c9e13bd758fc9d1a213#rd

本周翻译预告 

1. The Economist | Time for proof

https://www.economist.com/node/21791378?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Rebalancing act

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/09/03/can-japan-inc-navigate-the-rift-between-china-and-america?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | New job description

https://www.economist.com/node/21791405?frsc=dg%7Ce 

4. The Economist | And pigs may drive

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/09/02/elon-musks-vision-of-the-future-takes-another-step-forward?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | To be a king

https://www.economist.com/node/21791352?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已更新word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl（点击阅读原文进入）

社论翻译组招人啦

具体要求，可以看链接：

我们需要怎么样的译者？

---End---

经济学人逝者 || 地理学家和环球航海家马文•克里默

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491611&idx=1&sn=4811c6b4cf82212413d7705eb1ef3439&chksm=fba3b3bcccd43aaa62ecd0e8033b2962e326e4c6e51527bc3bbf4aeef094dcb8308bf6afab78#rd

1

导读

休息一下......

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Wind, sea and stars

风、大海和星辰

英文部分选自经济学人20200829期逝者版块

Obituary: Marvin Creamer

逝者：马文•克里默

Wind, sea and stars

风、大海和星辰

Marvin Creamer, geographer and circumnavigator, died on August 12th, aged 104

地理学家和环球航海家马文•克里默于8月12日逝世，享年104岁。

When Francis Drake rounded the globe in 1577-80, he took an astrolabe, compass and cross-staff with him. As Ferdinand Magellan, the first known circumnavigator, started out in 1519, he had at least an astrolabe and compass. But when Marvin Creamer set sail from Cape May, New Jersey in 1982, into thick overcast and a howling gale, on a voyage of 30,000 miles requiring nearly a year at sea, he carried, to his delight, no instruments at all.

弗朗西斯·德雷克在1577到1580年间从海上环行世界时，随身携带了一面星盘、一块罗盘和一把直角器。世界首位有姓名记载的环球航海家斐迪南·麦哲伦在1519年起航时，至少带上了星盘和罗盘。但是在1982年，马文•克里默从新泽西州的五月岬起航，驶入浓雾和怒号的狂风，开启一段全程三万英里、历时近一年的海上航程的时候，身上并未携带任何仪器。他对此开心不已。

Well, to be quite accurate, there were a few. He had an hourglass, the only time-keeper, to mark the watches of his small crew. Down in the bilge, in a duffel bag, were a radio, sextant, compass and clock, in case of emergency. His wife Blanche, with whom he had had months of lively discussions about this voyage—she dead against him sailing off, he, at 66, desperate to go—had insisted on this. But he had had it sealed by the navy, intending never to get those “toys” out, and never did. Lastly, there was a transmitter somewhere on the Globe Star to give the little cutter-rigged sloop’s position regularly to the coast guard. But it did not tell him where he was, and that was vital. He was going by the stars.

其实准确地说，他还是带了几件仪器。船上仅有的计时器是一台沙漏，用以记录寥寥几位船员的值班时间。在底舱有一个旅行包，装着收音机、六分仪、罗盘和时钟，以防万一。这几样东西是他的妻子布兰奇坚持让带的。布兰奇就此次航行和他激烈争论了数月——她极力反对他远航，而时年66岁的他执意出海。然而，马文•克里默让海军将装有仪器的旅行包封起来，打算永不使用这些“玩意儿”，而且他做到了。最后，在这艘名为“地球之星”的小单桅帆船上还装有一个发射台，定时将位置信息发给海岸警卫队。但是，发射台并不会把位置信息告诉马文•克里默，而这一点至关重要。他要通过观星来航行。

The ancient sailors he so admired, the Vikings and Chinese traders, as well as more modern Polynesians, had gone the same way. None of them, as far as was known, had circled the globe; but it seemed to him that they might have made predictable landfalls, setting a course and then returning again. He meant to prove, and never had much doubt—5%, perhaps—that they could also have got further. Endurance or fame were not the point of this endeavour, which even he admitted looked insane. It was the intellectual challenge of finding out how the ancients might have done it.

他非常钦佩古代的航海者，例如维京人、中国商人、以及时代更近一些的波利尼西亚人，而这些人都是以观星的方式航海的。据我们所知，古代航海者从未完成过环球航行；但是，在马文•克里默看来，那些古代航海者可能预测过要到达的登陆点，设定航线，然后又返航。古代航海者也可能已经航行到过更远的地方，马文•克里默对这点几乎不怀疑——如果有的话，也许只有一丁点怀疑——并且他还打算证明这一点。尽管承认（以这种方式环球航行）貌似有些疯狂，但他此举并非为了考验耐力或获取名声，而是将它看作一场智慧上的挑战，来弄清楚古代航海者是如何远航的。

To prepare himself he had done some hard study of oceanography and meteorology, in the gaps between teaching geography in the department he had founded at Glassboro State College, now Rowan University. And he had gone seafaring: first fishing on small outboards past the barrier islands off New Jersey, where he would venture out so far that his colleagues thought him either lost, or mad, and later sailing across the Atlantic to Ireland and Africa. It was on a voyage back from the Azores in 1974, when he had taken the dark-to-daylight watch and the compass-light kept failing, that he looked up and thought: why not? All he had to do at that moment was find Polaris, the Pole Star, put his shoulder in line with the keel, and steer straight on. It worked like a dream.

为了准备环球航行，马文•克里默利用在葛拉斯堡罗州立学院（现为罗文大学）自己建立的院系教授地理学的间隙，深入研究了海洋学和气象学。不仅如此，他还进行了一系列航海活动：先是开着装有舷外马达的小艇绕过新泽西海岸的堰洲岛去钓鱼。马文•克里默的同事见他驾着小艇去那么远的地方，都以为他要么是迷了路要么是发了疯。后来，他又驾艇穿越大西洋，抵达爱尔兰和非洲。1974年，从亚速尔群岛返航途中，他负责夜班值守，期间罗盘的灯不断出故障。于是他仰望天空，寻思道：为什么不利用星辰呢？在那一刻，他只需要找到北极星，让自己肩膀与船的龙骨对齐，然后向前直行即可。这一招很奏效，像做梦一样。

Star-steering had intrigued him since childhood, when his farmer-father taught him to observe the different positions of the setting sun from the south-west corner of the barn. On his voyage, a clear view of sunset or sunrise could tell him his position; but for latitude without a sextant he needed to make a geometry of the night sky, drawing an imaginary line between Polaris and his chosen navigation-star and watching where that star made its meridian transit. Finding a fixed point in the southern hemisphere was tricky until he learned to use Acrux and Gacrux, two of the brightest stars in the Southern Cross, as pointers to the southern celestial Pole. (Delta Orionis, right over the celestial Equator, was most useful for longitude.) Both north and south of the Equator, his calculations proved so accurate that almost all the Globe Star’s landfalls, on a route from Dakar via Sydney round to Bermuda, were within 15 miles of the target, and close to the dates he’d set.

在克里默小时候，他的父亲是一名农民，会教他在谷仓的西南角观察（不同季节）太阳落山的不同位置。从那时起，他就对靠观星辨识方向很着迷。航行中，清晰的日落、日出景象能让他判断自己所在的位置；但是如果要明确纬度的时候没有六分仪，则需要对夜空做一番几何测算，在北极星和他挑中的导航星之间画出一条假想的线，观察那颗导航星在哪里越过子午线。在马文•克里默尚未学会使用南十字座中最亮的南十字二（Acrux）和南十字一（Gacrux）两颗星作为指向南方天极的指针之前，在南半球找一个固定点非常棘手。（天球赤道上方的参宿三（Delta Orionis）最利于判断经度。）无论在赤道以北还是以南，他的计算最后证明都很准确。从达喀尔绕过悉尼、再到百慕大的航程中，“地球之星”几乎所有的登陆点都在距目标登陆点15英里的范围之内，登陆日期也接近马文•克里默预先设定的日期。

注：

The Southern Cross: 南十字座，南天星座之一，是全天88个星座中最小的星座，位于半人马座(Centaurus)与苍蝇座(Musca)之间的银河内。星座中主要的亮星组成一个“十”字形，从这个“十”字形的一竖向下方一直划下去，直到约4倍于这一竖的长度的一点就是南天极。在北回归线以南的地方皆可看到整个星座。（选自《百度百科》）

天球：天文学名词，是指一个以地球质心为中心，半径为任意长度的假想球体。创建天球概念的目的是将天体沿观测者视线投影到球面上，以便于研究天体及相互关系

Yet for much of the voyage he could not see the night sky at all. Crossing the Pacific, they had five sights of the stars in 5,000 miles. To estimate latitude and direction he had to be fiercely observant in daylight, too. He watched the sea most: its deep swell, the surface interaction of new waves with old ones, and the shadows they cast; its colour, whether blue in the deep or green in plankton-filled waters, and the wake of the boat. He guessed the Globe Star’s speed from the time bubbles took to move from bow to stern. His log showed that, having veered off the Horn in fog and with no landmarks, he was unsure whether they had rounded it or not. But he thought they had because the sea had gone from a dark transparent green to a lighter green and then turned dark again—the colour, an old mariner had told him, of the Atlantic.

然而，航行中的大部分时间里根本看不到夜空。穿越太平洋时，马文•克里默和他的船员在5,000英里的路程中仅仅有五天能看到星星。为了估算纬度和方向，他在白天也必须全神贯注进行观察。大海是他观察最多的对象：海里的深涌；先形成的浪与后形成的浪在海面的交融情况；海浪投在海里的阴影；海水的颜色，无论是大海深处的湛蓝还是长满浮游生物的碧绿；还有船的尾波。他通过泡沫从船首移到船尾的时间来推测“地球之星”的速度。航海日志显示，在大雾中“地球之星”突然在合恩角转向，又没有地标，他不确定究竟是否绕过了这个陡峭的岬角。但是海水从清透的深绿色变成浅绿色，又变成深绿色（一位老水手告诉过他这是大西洋的颜色），所以他认为他们绕过去了。

注：

The Horn：Cape Horn,合恩角,智利南部合恩岛上的陡峭岬角，位于南美洲最南端，南纬55°59′、西经67°16′，南临德雷克海峡，隔德雷克海峡与南极相望，附近多岛屿。

选自https://www.meipian.cn/1rrvoivw

He guessed they had, too, from the sudden icy breath of a north wind coming off the snow-covered Andes. The wind was always a useful indicator. Leaving Cape May, he had set course south-east for Senegal by keeping the freezing north-westerly at the midpoint of the back of his neck. After days in the doldrums, floating with no direction, the sudden nail-scraping squeak of a hatch told him that a dry wind was blowing up from Antarctica. Heavy cumulus clouds indicated land; diving petrels showed, specifically, the Falklands (as did the raf fighter jets that buzzed them, so soon after the war). Red sand-streaks on the sails in the dew of morning proved they were close to the Sahara.

从白雪皑皑的安第斯山脉方向突然吹来一阵凉气逼人的北风，据此也可判断，他们已经绕过了合恩角。风通常是有效的提示。离开五月岬（Cape May）之后，他朝东南方向驶向塞内加尔，一路靠着让寒冷的西北风正面吹向他后颈中部来保持方向。驶入赤道无风带后，一连漂了几天，毫无方向。突然，舱门上响起吱吱的刮擦声，表明有一股干燥的风从南极洲吹来。天空出现厚厚的积云，预示着前方有陆地，而一群俯冲的海燕更是说明福克兰群岛近在咫尺（马岛战争一结束，吓飞这些海燕的英国皇家空军战斗机也做到了这一点）。晨露润湿的船帆上沾着一道道红沙尘，则表明撒哈拉离他们不远了。

注：

doldrums：赤道无风带

五月岬（Cape May），美国城镇，位于新泽西州最南端。

8. For him, having the time of his life, happily chewing day after day the canned hamburger which Blanche, once resigned, had nobly put up for him, all the interest and point of the circumnavigation lay in these essential observations. Of course, there were dramas. Twice they almost capsized, with the mast 45% underwater. Going through Drake Passage near the Horn broke the “indestructible” steel tiller, though he was a good enough mechanic to rig up another. More than once they nearly came to grief on rocky, unlit coasts. Passing Tasmania, in the worst weather of the trip, he had to haul down wet sails with a dislocated shoulder. A galley fire almost incinerated the boat, as well as the loaf he was baking. Frustrations, but par for the course. He was just thrilled to prove that the ancients could have undertaken serious long-distance sailing, without toys, more often than people thought.

妻子布兰奇妥协后，就义无反顾的投入，为他准备罐装汉堡。航行途中，他每天幸福地咀嚼着这些罐装汉堡，享受着他最幸福的人生。对他而言，环球航行所有的乐趣和要点就存在于对这些必不可少的观测中。当然，航行也并非一帆风顺。他们的船两次险些倾覆，桅杆将近一半都淹没在水中。穿过德雷克海峡时，号称“坚不可摧”的铁舵柄竟发生了断裂，好在他是一名足够优秀的机械师，可以再组装一个。不止一次，他们差点撞到黑暗中坚硬的岩石海岸上。途经塔斯马尼亚时，船员们遇到了航程中最糟糕的天气，他不得不吊着脱臼的肩膀拽下湿漉漉的帆。一次，船上厨房着火，差点把小船和他正在烤制的面包统统烧毁。挫折已是家常便饭，但丝毫没有影响他的目标。能证明古人不依靠任何工具，可以完成真正的长途航行，而且航行的频率比想象的要高，他就喜出望外了。

注：

1. rig up：to make or to build sth quickly, using whatever materials are available（用现有的材料）匆匆做成

2. incinerate：to burn sth until it is completely destroyed把...烧成灰烬

3. (be) par for the course: to be just what you would expect to happen or expect sb to do in a particular situation 不出所料，果不其然

Naturally he wrote a book about it. But publishers showed no interest. No one had mutinied in this story, or been lost overboard; it was academic rather than tragic. Besides, there were lots of sailing books, and circumnavigations were increasing. That was all true; but then again, how many of those sailors had estimated latitude by watching yager gulls, or knew they were approaching home when a housefly settled in the cabin?

自然而然地，他把这段经历写成了一本书。但出版商对此却毫无兴趣。整个故事既没有人叛变，也没有人迷失，学术性太强，悲剧色彩不够。并且市面上已有很多关于航海的书籍，环球航行的次数也在不断增加。事实的确如此。不过，话说回来，那些航海者有几个是通过观察海鸥来估算纬度呢？又有几个看见家蝇落在船舱时，就知道已离家不远了呢？

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Lucia，英语专业学生，经济学人爱好者

Lixia，女，爱爬山的健身小白，美食狂人

校对组：

Mona，悦读悦译，以译会友
Nikolai，热爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49
Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Kemay，决心练好笔译的未来口译员

 曾在阅读中看到一位老妇人原本想要去一个距家30公里的城市，因为一味相信导航，跨越了900多公里跑到了另一个国家。很久之前我们的先人正是通过四季更替、二十四节气、斗转星移之间发现了在闰年的存在，可以通过飞禽走兽不寻常的行为判断出千里之外的地震，更有甚者可以观天象洞悉未来。其中的一些我们找到了依据，并用更精确的仪器进行替代，称其为科学。也正是这些科学造就了如今的人类文明，让我们发展。然而不知何时，我们开始过度依赖科学仪器，忘却了这些仪器背后的自然万象，非但不尊重，反而开始诋毁、轻视。殊不知我们的文明正是建立在这些抽象、主观之上。克里默之所以值得我们尊重正是因为他能够在众多精确仪器的诱惑之下，坚持从自然中寻找答案，是为数不多可以在星辰中寻找方向，凭借水波驶向远方的人儿。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day442

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491611&idx=2&sn=3d7920f098b5cd1beab6b0f2adb91513&chksm=fba3b3bcccd43aaafc681bd8164f1a9e23268931f9f3012be4bdb86800e0667be2006b77fb2c#rd

人生首先要是望远镜，看远；

再就是显微镜，看细；

接下来是放大镜，看透；

其次是太阳镜，看淡；

最后是哈哈镜，笑看生活！

---End---

经济学人1843 || 圣诞老人不会再来了：是否应该呵护童真？

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491602&idx=1&sn=488cc971cb95d23ab31fe1522f903d33&chksm=fba3b3b5ccd43aa37644794a84a5a7d88b7a12b6ab1e8dc308a89689d459f795e1b4efd59650#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
Jennie，女，MTI低才生，社会学爱好者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Childish things

孩童那点事儿

英文部分选自经济学人《1843》

Childish things

孩童那点事儿

Santa Claus ain’t coming to town: is childhood innocence worth preserving?

圣诞老人不会再来了：是否应该呵护童真？

Our new parenting columnist’s anxious struggle to protect his son

新育儿专栏作家关于保护童真的焦虑与挣扎

One of my earliest childhood memories: I am maybe six or seven, and it is Easter Sunday morning. I wake up early and skip down the hall to my parents’ bedroom to rouse them from sleep so that we can get straight down to the egg hunt. My dad is still in bed dozing; my mum is nowhere to be seen. After prodding my dad for a bit, I go over to the windows overlooking the garden. I draw back the curtain to see if I can scope out any chocolate eggs that may be visible, perhaps even the Easter Bunny himself going about his work. Instead I see my mother in her dressing gown with a little basket of Cadbury’s Creme Eggs in one hand, crouching to place them here and there among planters and flower beds. What I am witnessing makes no sense at all. It flies in the face of everything I know to be true. Yet here it is, unfolding right in front of me, as unthinkable as it is irrefutable. Traumatised by my own expanding comprehension of what is happening, I turn to my drowsy father. “Mummy is the Easter Bunny!” I say, and burst into tears.

我记得儿时曾发生过这样一件事：我大概六七岁，那天是复活节，我醒得很早，三步并两步下楼，经过客厅来到爸妈的卧室。我想叫醒他们，和我一起找彩蛋。爸爸还在打盹，妈妈已经不见踪影。我戳了戳爸爸，走到窗户前，掀开窗帘朝院子看，满怀期待地想找巧克力彩蛋，还有忙碌的复活节兔子。但是，我看到的竟然是我的妈妈，她穿着睡衣，提着装满吉百利奶油蛋的小篮子，蹲下来把彩蛋藏到花坛边和花架下。眼前的情景让我摸不着头脑，我甚至开始怀疑人生。然而事实就是这样，摆在我眼前，匪夷所思，却不可辩驳。这件事让我难以理解，对我的幼小的心灵造成了伤害。我找到睡眼朦胧的爸爸，大声哭喊，“复活节兔子竟然是妈妈假扮的！”

As losses of innocence go, this is enviably mild stuff. But in retrospect, what upset me most about this incident, this Revelation in the Garden, was my inchoate understanding that a part of my childhood had just subsided into the void. I knew, on some level, that this was the beginning of a long unravelling: the Easter Bunny was just the canary in the coalmine.

当我慢慢变得不再天真，这件事也逐渐淡忘。但是回想起来，那次“花园启示录事件”最令我沮丧的地方在于，就是从那时我才意识到，我的童年已经一去不复返了。从某种程度上，这是我此后漫长残酷人生的开始：复活节兔子是给我上的第一课。

“Mummy is the Easter Bunny!”

“妈妈就是复活节兔子！”

I say, and burst into tears As a child I was subject to anxieties about my own innocence. I knew that there were things I didn’t know, and that I would sooner or later know them. And I knew that there were beliefs I currently held that I would eventually come to relinquish, a knowledge that caused me to hold them all the tighter. By the age of 11 or 12, the question of my own innocence had become a central concern of my childhood. I was so aware of the finitude of childhood itself, of the existential threat of encroaching adolescence, that I was barely able to enjoy the innocence I supposedly prized so highly in the first place.

我哭喊着。小时候，我会为自己的幼稚而感到焦虑。我知道有些事情我还不懂，但迟早会明白。我也知道，我现在所坚信的以后可能改变，明白这个道理后，我对当时的信念更加执着。到了十一二岁，童年和童真成了我关注的焦点。我很清楚短暂的童年即将结束，青春期马上到来，我再也不能像从前一样天真无邪了。

My son is now about the age I was when I had that terrible awakening on Easter Sunday. And given the sort of child I was, it is not surprising that I have wound up being the sort of parent I am. I can’t help conceiving of the work of parenthood in terms of threat and protection. And not within the frame of masculinity as classically understood, I should clarify, but more in a sort of fretful and harried sense. The word “innocent” derives from the Latin word innocens, meaning “harmless”: the notion of the world’s multifarious harmfulness lies at the heart of the concept of innocence. In trying to preserve a child’s innocence, you are engaged in the necessary futility of protecting them from all possible tribulations.

我儿子现在和我经历可怕的“复活节启示录”时的年龄相仿。当年的我曾是那样在乎自己的童真，现在我也想要极力保护他的，这不足为奇。我忍不住开始思考，在孩子的童真受到威胁时，应该如何保护。澄清一下，（我所说的威胁和保护）并非仅针对传统意义上的男性气概，更多是（孩子经历的）焦虑和不安。 “innocent”一词源自拉丁语“innocens”，意为“无害”：童真概念的核心在于免受世上五花八门的伤害。为了保护孩子的纯真，需要做一些看起来无意义的事，保护他们免受磨难。

Recently I was driving our car, listening to my son and a friend of his as they chatted in the back seat. Though it was the middle of summer, the conversation had turned towards Christmas and the various toys they were hoping to acquire. My son’s friend, it emerged, had started to harbour some serious suspicions about whether Santa Claus was real. She was convinced, in fact, that the whole thing – Santa, elves, reindeer, the North Pole itself – was an elaborate hoax, and her parents were behind the beneficence. She seemed to have quite an array of evidence to hand, evidence pertaining to wrapping paper, handwriting analysis, and, if I understood correctly, a cousin who had found her presents in a cupboard some weeks before Christmas last year.

最近有次开车的时候，我听到我儿子和他的朋友在后座交谈。时间还是仲夏，他们就已经在说圣诞节期待收到的玩具。他的朋友似乎已经开始怀疑圣诞老人的存在。实际上，她觉得故事中的圣诞老人、精灵、驯鹿以及北极本身，都是精心设计的骗局，背后是父母善意的欺骗。她似乎已经发现很多线索，比如包装纸和笔迹。如果我没听错，她说她表姐在去年圣诞节前几周，就已经在橱柜中看到了她圣诞礼物。

I’m a little hazy on the details, frankly, because as soon as the topic was raised I went into panic mode. I had the immediate instinct to hit the brakes and order everyone out of the car. If at that point I could have pressed a button on the dashboard and released tear gas into the back seat, I probably would have gone for it.

说实话我不记得他们谈话的细节，因为我一听到他们聊这个话题，就立马陷入了恐慌。我想马上停车，让所有人下车。如果那时我可以按一下仪表板上的按钮，向后座释放催泪瓦斯，我可能都会这样做。

My son’s friend, it emerged, had started to harbour some serious suspicions about whether Santa Claus was real

我儿子的朋友已经开始怀疑圣诞老人的存在

The biblical reference, joke though it was, clearly revealed something about the subconscious structure of my idea of innocence. The story of the Fall has always seemed to be most comprehensible as an allegory about the passage out of childhood innocence into a realm of adult disenchantment, in which adulthood itself is a state of expulsion from which there can be no return.

圣经里的一个故事，虽然是开玩笑，但清楚地解释了我关于纯真（innocence）观念的潜在理解。（亚当和夏娃）堕落的故事是一则易于理解的寓言，暗示了从童年纯真的状态过渡到成年幻想破灭的状态，而成年本身就意味着一种驱逐，孩童时代一去不复返。

My two-year-old daughter, for instance, has no interest in clothes. In any situation in which she can get by without them – and in many situations where, strictly speaking, she cannot – she will opt to go entirely naked. That state of being looks fairly Edenic. She sashays about the place utterly and shamelessly naked, all of her needs provided for without fuss, knowing nothing of the reality of death. An ideal situation, in many respects. But it’s the ephemerality of that state that makes it so touching. Once you’re out of your teens, it’s basically all eating thy bread from the sweat of thy brow from there on out, until thou returnest unto the ground thou wast taken from. I know that this attitude of sentimentalising childhood is a relatively recent cultural condition, but that awareness doesn’t make it any less strongly felt.

举例来说，我两岁的女儿对衣服没兴趣。凡是在不穿衣服就可以应付的场合，或者严格来说应该穿衣服的场合，她都选择光着身子。这种状态就像在伊甸园一般，浑身上下一丝不挂，毫不羞耻地到处走动，一切需要都可以及时得到满足，对于死亡一无所知。从多个角度来看，这都是一种理想的状态。然而，正是因为这种状态很短暂，所以才显得如此珍贵。到了十几岁，生活基本上就完全是“你必汗流满面才得糊口，直到你归了土，因为你是从土而出的（此处依中文版《圣经》而来，创3：19）”。我清楚，这种带着感情色彩描述童年时光的态度是较近才兴起的文化现象，但它给我带来的触动依然不减分毫。

扩展阅读：创3：19的多语版翻译https://www.qeto.com/mip/article_158824

And here we come to the cold heart of the matter: the world is in many ways a harsh and terrible place that you would not wish on your worst enemy, let alone your children. Those children, if they’re very lucky, get a scant few years in which to wander around in the nude eating fruit, giving names to the beasts of the field and the fowls of the air, before they suddenly become aware of their own nakedness, and of the reality of the world, with its literal plagues and wars and famines.

然后，我们看到问题残酷的一面：在很多方面，我们的世界是残酷和可怕的，你甚至不希望最坏的敌人面对这些残酷，更何况是你的孩子。如果孩子们够幸运，在为数不多的几年尽情裸着身子、啃着水果、四处闲逛，给田间的野兽和天上的飞鸟起名字。随后他们会忽然意识到自己竟赤身裸体，明白世界的真相，看到世界上发生的瘟疫、战争和饥荒。

I joked to my wife that I knew how God had felt about the tree-of-knowledge situation. “Right! Everybody out! I’m shutting the whole operation down!”

我和妻子开玩笑说，我知道上帝为何要种智慧树。“好啦！大家都出去！我要终止这一整个行动！”

This topic is knotted with contradictions and hypocrisies. The other day, for instance, my son was talking about how he wanted to be a spy when he grew up and asked how he might go about becoming one. Before I knew it, I was explaining the cold war to him. The cold war! Not only that, but, as I sketched a basic outline of the quarrel between capitalism and socialism, I also found myself shamelessly editorialising from my own perspective.

这个话题本身充满矛盾和伪善。比如有一天，我儿子跟我说他长大了想当一名间谍，问我要怎么做才能实现。于是我开始下意识地跟他讲述冷战。那可是冷战啊！不仅如此，我发现自己在一边概述资本主义和社会主义如何互相斗争，一边还在厚颜无耻地给自己的观点添油加醋。 

扩展：tree-of-knowledge : the tree in the Garden of Eden bearing the forbidden fruit which Adam and Eve disobdiently ate 伊甸园智慧树。

https://www.jianshu.com/p/0b017d54e690伊甸园、智慧树和原罪的象征

I freely admit that no child should be exposed to garbled explanations of the domino theory of geopolitics, or Marx’s theory of alienation, before they learn that the Easter Bunny is actually their mum. Which is to say that, when it comes to my own angst about the erosion of childhood innocence, I am hardly innocent myself. As much as I want to preserve my son’s innocence, there is a point when doing so comes at the cost of maintaining his ignorance.

我可以坦言，在明白复活节兔子其实是妈妈假扮的之前，孩子们不应就过早接触对某些概念含混不清的解读，如地缘政治学中的多米诺理论或马克思异化理论等。这也意味着，当我对于童真的逝去义愤填膺，其实我自己也难辞其咎。尽管我希望儿子能一直保持纯真，但这么做的代价是让他继续懵懂无知。

注：
1. 地缘政治学：以地理因素为基础，分析其上的经济、社会、军事、外交、历史、政治等

2. 多米諾骨牌理論：1950和1960年代的政治用語，指如果一個國家成為共產主義國家，其周圍國家也更易成為共產主義國家

I don’t want the world to encroach on his childhood, but I also want him to understand the world and to be curious about its complexities, even its darkness. Because after a certain point, the preservation of innocence becomes a kind of totalitarianism (tyrants propagate myths as ardently as some parents). Perhaps my son has good reasons for wanting to be a spy when he grows up. There are the cool hats and sunglasses and the nifty gadgets, certainly, but there’s also the appeal of hidden information. Maybe he was already looking beyond childhood. Maybe he wanted out already.

我不希望这个世界侵蚀他的美好童年，但我希望他能了解这个世界，对这个世界保持好奇心，并乐于探索世界的复杂性和黑暗面。因为过了一定的年纪，保护纯真变成了一种极权主义（暴君和一些家长一样热衷于宣传神话）。或许，我儿子有很好的理由希望长大后成为间谍。可能是因为间谍能戴酷酷的帽子、墨镜和饰品，也可能是因为秘密信息的吸引力。他可能早已构想长大之后的人生，也早已想成为大人了。

There may be another way of thinking about innocence, as something more than just the preserve of childhood. In “Pilgrim at Tinker Creek”, Annie Dillard, a writer who herself seems to me to embody a kind of worldly innocence, put it like this: “Innocence is not the prerogative of infants and puppies…What I call innocence is the spirit’s un-self-conscious state at any moment of pure devotion to any object. It is at once a receptiveness and total concentration.” Seen in this way, innocence is not a state of protection from the world, but an openness to it that has been freed of adult inhibitions and wariness. And it doesn’t have to end in inevitable loss. Innocence, in this view, cannot merely be preserved. It can be cultivated.

关于童真，也许还有另一种思考方式，不局限于保护童年。在我眼中，安妮•迪拉德处于尘世，却保有纯真。她在《丁克溪的朝圣者》（“Pilgrim at Tinker Creek”）一书中写道，“纯真并非小孩子和小动物的特权，我所指的纯真意为在任何时候，都自然而然地对任何事物都保持虔诚，即善于接纳新事物，做事全神贯注。”这样看来，纯真并非不问俗尘，而是处于尘世，却摒除成年人的拘谨和戒心。纯真不必消弭，依这种观点来看，纯真不仅仅只能被保护，还能够被培养。

翻译组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉
Chao，爱读书思考的DPhil candidate，TE爱好者 
Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系。

校对组：

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

Helen，女，坐标武汉，职业翻译，翻硕已毕业英语二笔二口，爱好陶笛洞箫古诗词

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

记得很久以前写过一篇感想，当时我向女儿指出所有童话故事和那些西游记、封神榜里的一切都是人们假想出来的，小编批评我说我对孩儿太残酷了，我却不得不摇了摇头说，穷人家的女儿不配拥有一个公主梦。

我相信每个女孩子都想要做公主，女儿小时候就经常自己过家家，扮演公主，让我演那个老国王。稍微懂事点后，我就问了她一个问题，我说你是公主，我是国王，那谁来演佣人呢？要么你也兼演一下吧，她便开始有些不高兴了，我便同她讲，这世界上总要有人来做佣人的，不是你便是别的小朋友，你愿意自己还是别人做呢？她回答是别人，那我就紧接着跟了一句，这取决于你如何努力了，因为爸爸并不能给你一个天生的公主身份，这虽然有些心酸，但却是不争的事实。

我想大部分反对我做法的人主要的理由便是这会撕碎孩子美好的童年，但是我并不这么觉得。环顾四周，那些阴险狡诈的背后可能也有着美好的童年，但是这些美好的童年却没能给他们带来善良，他们无法保持自己的初心和童真。所以我觉得如何让小孩子长大后仍然拥有善良之心，童真之悯，仍然不忘自己的理想，为了这份理想奋力向前，这才是童年的意义所在，如果仅仅是为了留住童年的记忆，那我觉得大可不必如此胆小甚微，因为记忆似乎是一种很神奇的东西，它能过滤掉大部分的不快乐，只留下极端的东西：美好和仇恨，所以即便我拆穿了所有童话的谎言，孩子们依然可以在多年以后保留着属于自己的童年美好。

    孩子早点走出虚幻的世界也是一种善意的痛苦，因为明白自己所处的位置，这虽然很残酷，但却很有必要，且越早越好，终日沉浸在虚幻的自我中心里，与这世界格格不入，也无法看清现实，这对于一个人来说是一件好事还是坏事呢？除非家境优越到可以一辈子沉浸于此，否则认清现状，努力创造属于自己的幸福，这才是我们所向往和提倡的，也是让自己更进一步的唯一正道。

孩子上一年级了，我之前做了很多准备，希望她能够走最少的弯路，去实现自己的理想和愿望，但这些努力在别的家长看来却成了一种罪恶，似乎我们在抢跑，在不公平的竞争，要知道不同种类的人在同一条起跑线上本身就是一种最直接的不公平。所以我觉得除非家庭优越，可以呵护孩子享受一辈子的童真，否则不如早点点醒他，让他在面对现实社会的同时更加清楚和理性地看待童话故事里的人和事，其实童话故事要告诉我们的，几乎全部都是现实社会的投影，所以始终开心、没有曲折的童话故事是无人问津的，孩子们就是在这种类现实构造出来的环境中慢慢去体会理解现实世界，我想从这个角度而言，与我的做法殊途同归。

      讲了太多关于养育孩子的话了，可能看大部分的看官老爷-学生-很难明白这份心意，我只能说面对自己作为父母时的无能为力，唯一的愿望就是让孩子有一技之长，有足够的能力来抚育她的后代，不留类似我们的愧疚感。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day441

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491602&idx=2&sn=6775ff44af6dabaa653939e994c1cf7c&chksm=fba3b3b5ccd43aa3efba0c6eb21fa5973ff11c9c9673f470c1ba1e333e4e07e50db7553d9521#rd

人生有三位老师：

 一是兴趣， 

拥有自己的兴趣，内心才有执着的追求。

二是苦难，

你遭受的每一次苦难，都会在某个时候派上用场。

三是爱，

爱像口袋，往里装是幸福，往外拿就是成就感。

成功的人生，要用兴趣去追求，用苦难去磨砺，用爱去生活！

---End---

经济学人财经 || 交易所巨头

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491592&idx=1&sn=6a106c59a93bafe3014bff8f95073011&chksm=fba3b3afccd43ab92492058d5bc82073ec0d049458eb835a52a464e0b15e3178ad8c77689bcb#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Big fish

巨头

英文部分选自经济学人20200829期财经版块

Big fish

巨头

Twenty years ago the world’s elite exchanges were clubby and obscure. Now their tentacles spread far and wide

二十年前，全球精英交易所呈现高门槛的俱乐部化。如今，它们的触角已伸向四面八方。

 注释：

1.clubby：排外的；俱乐部的；爱交际的；资格要求严的

2.obscure：昏暗的，朦胧的；晦涩的，不清楚的；隐蔽的；不著名的，无名的

3.tentacle：触手、触角

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) resembles a financial estuary, says Charles Li, its boss. China’s capital flows mix with the open seas of global markets. In 2014 hkex sought to ride the waves by launching Stock Connect, a conduit allowing offshore and mainland punters to invest in each other’s markets. Later it eased its listing rules for firms with dual share classes. All that has helped make hkex more hospitable to the tech firms that exchanges covet. It has just landed another big catch. On August 25th Ant Group, the fintech affiliate of Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, filed for a listing that may raise $30bn in Hong Kong and Shanghai (see next article). That would make it the largest initial public offering ever.

香港证券交易所（HKEX）的总裁查尔斯·李（李小加）说，港交所像一个金融河口，中国的资本流经此处融入全球市场的汪洋大海。2014年，香港证券交易所推出“沪（深）港通”项目，试图搭上这波浪潮，这是一条允许离岸和大陆投资者投资对方市场的渠道。后来，它放宽了双重股权结构公司的上市规则。所有这些都让港交所更适合交易所梦寐以求的科技公司。它刚刚又抓到了一个大单。8月25日，中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的金融科技子公司蚂蚁集团(Ant Group)申请上市，有望在香港和上海筹集300亿美元资金（请参阅下一篇文章），可能成为有史以来最大规模的首次公开募股。

 注释：

1. resemble：If one thing or person resembles another, they are similar to each other. 像

2. estuary：An estuary is the wide part of a river where it joins the sea. 河口

3. Stock Connect：A unique collaboration between the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Stock Connect allows international and Mainland Chinese investors to trade securities in each other's markets through the trading and clearing facilities of their home exchange. 沪港通及深港通是香港、上海和深圳股票交易所的合作计划，使国际和内地投资者可以通过本地交易所的交易和结算系统来交易对方市场的证券。

4. punter：船夫，用篙撑船的人；赌博者

5. dual share classes: 双重股权结构中，上市公司可以同股不同权，即公司的股票分高、低两种投票权。

6.covet：If you covet something, you strongly want to have it for yourself. 对…垂涎三尺

The news made a splash. But it is easy to forget that, in the two decades or so since they themselves listed, hkex and other exchanges have become big fish too, by exploiting the benefits of network effects, data and scale that Big Tech is best known for. The London Stock Exchange, which was worth less than $2bn when it went public in 2001, now has a market capitalisation of $41bn. The New York Stock Exchange (nyse) is now part of Intercontinental Exchange (ice) which is worth $57bn (see chart 1). hkex’s market capitalisation has grown nearly sixty-fold, to $61bn. Their revenues similarly boomed.

这个消息引起了轰动。但容易遗忘的是，自上市以来20年左右，港交所和其他交易所通过挖掘大型科技公司所最负盛名的网络效应、数据和规模的优势，自身也成为了巨头。2001年上市价值不足20亿美元的伦敦证交所，如今市值已达410亿美元。纽交所(NYSE)已成为价值570亿美元(见图1）的洲际交易所(ICE)的一部分。港交所的市值已增长至原先的60倍，达到610亿美元。他们的收入同样快速增长。

注释：

1.Make a splash：If you make a splash, you become noticed or become popular because of something that you have done. 引起关注

2.Intercontinental Exchange (ice) ：The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is an American company that owns and operates financial and commodity marketplaces and exchanges.洲际交易所，是美国一网上期货交易平台，亦提供能源及商品及其衍生产品的柜台买卖（OTC）服务。集团最初主要经营能源相关产品，例如：原油、天然气、电力及碳排放，透过近年收购合并，经营范围已拓展到其他商品，例如：糖、棉花、咖啡、外汇及指数期货。

Once crusty monopolies, exchanges have continually stretched their business models. They still run the match-making infrastructure that allows billions of shares and trillions of dollars to change hands daily. Stacey Cunningham, who helms nyse, says it received over 300bn messages across its systems on peak days this spring; that is more than 50 times the number of daily Google searches. But after two decades of epic bidding wars and political drama, exchanges are also remarkably powerful financial conglomerates, controlling everything from the software powering banks’ back offices to the data pored over by investors. The race for dominance means that, today, a small group of elite exchanges are far ahead of the rest.

交易所曾是固执的垄断集团，现在正不停延展它们的商业模式。它们仍然运营着撮合交易的基础设施，让每日数十亿股和数万亿美元得以转手。纽交所(NYSE)的掌舵人史黛西•坎宁安（Stacey Cunningham）表示，今年春季的高峰时段，公司在系统中收到超过3000亿条信息，是谷歌每日搜索量的50倍以上。但在经历了20年史诗般的竞购战和政治戏码之后，交易所同时也是非常强大的金融集团，控制着从支持银行后台的软件到投资者精心研读的数据等一切。在主导地位的争夺中，一小部分精英交易所当前远远领先于其他交易所。

注释：

1. crusty：易怒的；执拗的；有壳的；像外壳一样的

2. monopoly: 垄断

3. conglomerate：A conglomerate is a large business firm consisting of several different companies. 企业集团

4.pore over：集中精神地阅读

Stock exchanges used to be owned by their members, which were mostly banks and brokers. When the biggest went public in the 2000s, they earned their crust by charging fees on equity issuance and transactions. The exchanges sought to diversify by expanding abroad and becoming trading venues for other assets, like derivatives and currencies. Most moved into clearing and settlement facilities, too.

证券交易所过去往往由其成员所持有，大多是银行和经纪商。证券交易所巨头于本世纪上市后，主要通过收取股票发行和交易费用来赚钱，试图通过向海外扩张、成为衍生工具和货币等其他资产的交易场所来实现多元化。大多数也将持牌清算和结算服务纳入业务范围。

注释：

earn a crust: To do work of any kind for a living; to earn money.

For much of that period, “eat or be eaten” was the industry’s motto. In 2007 nyse bought Euronext, a group that included the Amsterdam and Paris exchanges. ice bought nyse in 2013 (and spun out Euronext). Yet the strategy soon came up against antitrust and political vetoes. Attempts to marry Toronto’s stock exchange with lse, lse with Deutsche Börse, Deutsche Börse with nyse, have all collapsed. Most recently, in 2019, an opportunistic bid by hkex for the lse fell through.

自那此后的大部分时间里，“吞并还是被吞并”一直被业内奉为圭臬。纽交所在2007年收购了泛欧交易所（Euronext），后者包括阿姆斯特丹证券交易所和巴黎证券交易所在内。洲际交易所在2013年收购了纽交所（并拆分出泛欧交易所）。然而，该策略很快遭到了反垄断和政治利益的反对。多伦多证交所与伦敦证交所（LES）、伦敦证交所与德意志交易所（Deutsche Börse）、德意志交易所与纽交所（NYSE）合并计划全部流产。最近一次是2019年港交所向伦敦证交所提出的合并邀约，同样失败了。

注释：

1. eat or be eaten

The idea that if you do not work your ass off, then someone else will beat you to it and potentially take advantage of you. It is the concept of fighting to be the best and come out on top or else you'll just be another unimportant number.

Source: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=eat%20or%20be%20eaten

2.延申阅读：《多伦多证券交易所与伦敦证券交易所寻求合并》

Source: http://finance.sina.com.cn/j/20110210/08449353837.shtml

3.《伦敦与德意志证交所合并交易流产 “凶手”是谁？》

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-39434952

4.《欧盟否决德交所纽交所合并——全球最大交易所并购案泡汤》

https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E7%BA%BD%E4%BA%A4%E6%89%80%E4%B8%8E%E5%BE%B7%E4%BA%A4%E6%89%80%E5%90%88%E5%B9%B6

《香港交易所收购伦敦证券交易所：“世纪联姻”背后的政治担忧》

With deals proving tricky the firms have found crafty ways to expand. As passive funds came to prominence, trading venues set their sights on benchmarks tracked by these funds. In 2010 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (cme), a big derivatives market, acquired Dow Jones, which assembles many of America’s most widely followed indices. lse has a number of benchmarks that cover both sides of the Atlantic. (Updates to such indices—like the ejection of ExxonMobil, an oil firm, from Dow’s flagship index on August 25th—can cause mountains of money to shift).

收并购变得棘手之时，交易所发现了巧妙的扩张途径。随着被动型基金的兴起，交易所将目光投向了追踪这些基金的基准指数。2010年，大型衍生品市场芝加哥商品交易所（CME）收购了道琼斯（Dow Jones），道琼斯提供了美国许多最受广泛关注的指数。伦敦交易所则涵盖了大西洋两岸许多指数。（这些指数的更新或会导致巨额资金的转移，如8月25日石油公司埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）被道琼斯指数剔出成份股。）

延申阅读：《石油企业真衰落了?埃克森美孚(XOM.US)被踢出道琼斯指数!》

https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2020-08-25/doc-iivhvpwy3003823.shtml

Now the elite exchanges have turned their attention to data. On August 6th ice said it had agreed to pay $11bn for Ellie Mae, which tracks the mortgage industry. lse is awaiting approval of its $27bn bid for Refinitiv, a market-data firm. The hunt, says David Schwimmer, lse’s boss, is only beginning. Whereas trading volumes are cyclical, indices and data are typically sold via more stable subscriptions. Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, expects trading revenues to stagnate or even decline, but those from crunching data to grow by over 5% annually in coming years.

如今，精英交易所的注意力转移至交易数据。8月6日，洲际交易所表示其已同意斥资110亿美元收购跟踪抵押贷款行业数据公司艾莉梅（Ellie Mae）。伦敦证交所以270亿美元收购市场数据公司Refinitiv的邀约，正在等待许可。伦敦证交所的老板大卫·施维默（David Schwimmer）表示，捕猎才刚刚开始。尽管交易量会呈周期性波动，但指数和数据通常是以更稳定的订阅形式销售。奥纬咨询（Oliver Wyman）预测，未来交易利润将会停滞甚至下滑，但是数据处理板块的利润将会以每年高于5%的增长率蒸蒸日上。

Twenty years ago the fear was that new entrants would eventually topple the exchanges’ de facto monopolies. But the incumbents have kept the challengers at bay. Customer complaints about their fat fees once enticed startups, such as iex, an exchange that pledges fairer pricing. The rise of “dark pools”—venues that match buyers and sellers anonymously—also posed a threat. But seven years since it was founded, iex’s market share is stuck at 1.8%. The share of trading volume accounted for by dark pools in America has stabilised at 12%.

20年前，市场对新进入者的担忧是其会颠覆既有交易所的实际垄断地位。但是已在位者们对新进挑战者也千方百计的阻挠。客户对（既有交易所）高额收费的抱怨也一度吸引了一批初创企业，比如IEX，一家承诺更公平定价的交易所。匿名匹配买卖交易双方信息的“暗池”场所兴起，也对交易所构成了一定的威胁。但是自IEX创立7年以来，其市场份额也仅为1.8%。美国的暗池交易量也稳定在12%。

The result is a pyramidal hierarchy, a good gauge of which is an exchange’s revenues. At the base are the minnows, in poor countries or small developed ones, which lack liquidity or scale and are struggling to diversify. Some should merge or close, but governments will keep them alive. “Every nation wants to have a strong airline, a good beer and a stock exchange,” says NickO’Donnell of Baker McKenzie, a law firm.

最终的交易所市场将会呈金字塔层次结构，而该层级的衡量标准将是交易所的收入。位于底层将是贫穷国家或者小型发达国家的小型交易所，它们缺乏流动性和市场规模，并且正在努力实现多样化。一些将会被合并或者关门，但是政府将会让其生存下去。贝克·麦坚时（McKenzie）律所的尼克·奥唐纳（Nick O 'Donnel）律师说道：“每个国家都希望有一个强大的航空公司、一个好的啤酒品牌和一个股票交易所”。

The next tier consists of exchanges with regional heft, and revenues exceeding $500m. Their reliance on trading in an era of tensions between America and China means they must team up or play to their strengths as neutral turf in order to thrive. On August 20th Singapore Exchange said it would work with lse’s benchmark business to develop index derivatives focused on Asian and emerging markets. Euronext has acquired Nord Pool, a power market.

第二层则是具有区域影响力，并且收入超过5亿美元的交易所。在中美关系紧张的时代，交易所对贸易的依赖意味着他们必须组队联合，或者发挥他们作为中立势力的优势，才能繁荣发展。8月20日，新加坡交易所表示将和伦敦证交所基准业务进行合作，开发专注于亚洲和新兴市场的指数衍生品。泛欧交易所已经收购了北欧电力交易所（Nord Pool），为一家电力市场。

注释：

1.heft n. 影响力，重要性

2.Nord pool, 北欧电力交易所，是欧洲领先的电力市场交易机构,提供遍及欧洲的有效、简单和安全的电力交易;

At the top of the food chain, with revenues at or exceeding $3bn, sit the giants: cme, Deutsche Börse, ice and lse. These have assured demand for big volumes, and will continue to reap the rewards of diversification. Two candidates are on the verge of promotion into the top league. Nasdaq, once famous only for its tech listings, now makes software that powers more than 130 other exchanges. hkex enjoys the strongest tailwinds. It stands to win from China’s capital-market liberalisation, its growing tech nous and mainland firms’ desire to be closer to their home market. Geopolitics could also help, as Ant’s decision not to list in America may already show.

而在食物链的顶端，则是收入达到或超过30亿美金的巨头：芝加哥商品交易所、德意志交易所、洲际交易所和伦敦证交所。这些大鳄保证了大量交易的需求，同时也会持续收割多样化带来的回报。两名候选者也即将步入顶级俱乐部圈。纳斯达克曾经因只上市科技公司而闻名，现在它开发的软件为其他130多家交易所提供服务。港交所则正站在风口上。该交易所将受益于中国资本市场的自由化，自身日益增强的科技意识，以及大陆公司想要更接近其本土市场的愿望。地缘政治因素同样也有帮助，蚂蚁集团不在美上市可能已经证明了这一点。

注释：

1.reap v. 收获，获得，收割

2.on the verge of  濒临于，接近于

Eg. He seemed to be on the verge of total derangement

他似乎已濒临精神崩溃的边缘。

In time, Mr Li reckons, “almost all” Chinese companies listed in America will come back to Asia. Stock Connect, which makes up 7-8% of daily trading on hkex, could end up accounting for a quarter of it. Being at the confluence of China’s rivers of capital and the sea of global funds should be a lucrative business.

适时，李小加认为，“几乎所有”在美国上市的中国公司都会回到亚洲。现在仅占港交所每日交易量的7-8%的“沪（深）港通”，最终可能会占到交易量的四分之一。身处中国资本大河以及全球基金之海的交汇处，这将会是一笔获益颇丰的生意。

翻译组：

Jerry，男，金融专业硕士，经济学人铁粉

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Jessie Lulu，女，金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Zihan, 对冲基金，大数据工程师

我们先看看大的时代背景。2018年，中美进入贸易战争。美国对想再美国上市的中国公司的监管增加。而中美贸易战的加剧让港交所对大陆公司更有有吸引力。原本打算在纽约证券交易所或者纳斯达克上市的中国公司，现在更愿意回归祖国的怀抱。但是港交所并不是唯一的选择，仅仅是截止今年6月末，上交所的IPOs就有77个。这是纽约交易所的7倍。港交所的总募集的资金量很大而且上市公司数量也很多，但是和上交所比还是有一点点差距。不过话又说回来，港交所也有他自己特有的优势。首先，在什么交易所上市取决于想要吸引什么样的投资人。其次，港交所会更吸引国际化股东架构的公司。所以说，虽然大陆和香港的交易们所有着竞争关系和共同感兴趣的群体，但是也有各自的优势和重心。而长期来看，众多交易所的角色很难会更加重叠。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day440

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491592&idx=2&sn=219880de5572586a454c3f586400c3a6&chksm=fba3b3afccd43ab99e3967c175b3c4667c138b51dd8197f82fd284581e54cc24f0c5a3f17364#rd

聚散一念间，

得失皆是缘。

---End---

经济学人商业 || 德国蓝筹股

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491580&idx=1&sn=c4d69a9e35cfa84ac472223a0912e790&chksm=fba04c5bccd7c54d55647874634f3f332b5984544ae5c125bd6728c1890d07071dcd77ff2558#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Rena, 坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

German blue chips

德国蓝筹股

英文部分选自经济学人20200829期Business版块

German blue chips

德国蓝筹股

Ascend and deliver

外卖上榜

Delivery Hero could last longer in the DAX 30 than the firm it has replaced

比起被取代的公司，外卖超人会在DAX 30榜上停留更久

Promising, with a few riders

和骑手们一同期待

Joining the index of Germany’s 30 biggest listed companies is usually a cause of celebration for the joiner rather than of controversy. Yet the arrival of Delivery Hero in the DAX 30 on August 24th ignited a fierce debate. How, critics grumble, can a food-delivery company that has never made money or paid a dividend, and no longer even does business in Germany, sit alongside Siemens, a 173-year-old engineering behemoth, and Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, in the elite group of the bluest of German blue chips?

加入德国30家最大上市公司的指数，通常是一件值得庆祝而非引发争议的事。然而外卖超人在8月24日加入DAX 30指数却引发了一场激烈的争论。批评者颇有微词：一家从未盈利也未支付股息，甚至不再在德国开展业务的送餐公司，怎么能与拥有173年历史的工程巨头西门子和欧洲最大汽车制造商大众一起跻身于德国蓝筹股最蓝的精英集团之列？

注：

1. 蓝筹股是指在某一行业中处于重要支配地位,业绩优良,交投活跃,红利优厚的大公司的股票，在一些地方也将蓝筹股视为"绩优股"。但蓝筹股并不等于具有很高投资价值的股票。“蓝筹”一词源于西方赌场。在西方赌场中，有三种颜色的筹码，其中蓝色筹码最为值钱，红色筹码次之，白色筹码最差。投资者把这些行话套用到股票上，引申为最大规模或市值的上市公司。一般人将蓝筹股等同股票成份股，但事实上成份股不一定是最大或最佳的上市公司。

2. 德国DAX指数 （德语：Der Dax最早来源于Deutscher Aktienindex）是德国重要的股票指数。由德意志交易所集团（Deutsche Börse Group）推出的一个蓝筹股指数。该指数中包含有30家主要的德国公司。DAX指数是全欧洲与英国伦敦金融时报指数齐名的重要证券指数，也是世界证券市场中的重要指数之一。

The simple answer is that membership of the DAX is determined mainly by market value and turnover of shares, with no profitability test (unlike America’s S&P 500 index of big firms, which requires four consecutive quarters in the black, among other criteria). And in that respect, Delivery Hero qualifies handily. Niklas Ostberg, its Swedish chief executive, boasts that the firm’s market capitalisation of €18.7bn ($22bn) is higher than that of several DAX members. Its share price has tripled over the past couple of years and it has attracted investments from the world’s richest companies, including Alibaba and Amazon, two global internet giants.

简单来说，DAX的成员资格主要由市值和股票换手率决定，没有盈利能力测试(不像美国的标准普尔500大公司指数要求连续四个季度盈利，以及其他准则)。这样来看，外卖超人轻而易举就达到标准了。外卖超人瑞典首席执行官尼克拉斯·奥斯特伯格（Niklas Ostberg）夸耀公司的市值为187亿欧元(约合1499.72亿人民币)，高于DAX的几家成员公司。它的股价在过去几年里涨了两倍，吸引了世界上最富有的公司投资，包括两家全球互联网巨头阿里巴巴和亚马逊。

注：

1. In the black 盈利；

有盈余Remington's operations in Japan are now in the black.

2. In the red 亏本

3. 股票换手率：换手率也称“周转率”，指在一定时间内市场中股票转手买卖的频率，是反映股票流通性强弱的指标之一。以样本总体的性质不同有不同的指标类型，如交易所所有上市股票的总换手率、基于某单个股票发行数量的换手率、基于某机构持有组合的换手率。在技术分析的诸多工具中，换手率指标是反映市场交投活跃程度最重要的技术指标之一。（选自《百度百科》）

Ironically, a big reason for investors’ enthusiasm is Delivery Hero’s non-German focus. A few years ago it offloaded its German businesses, Foodora, Lieferheld and Pizza.de, to Takeaway, a Dutch competitor. Since then it has eyed expansion in the Middle East and Asia. At the end of last year 50% of the company’s revenue came from the Middle East and north Africa, 30% from Asia and 12% from Europe. “It is today essentially an emerging-markets business,” says Monique Pollard of Citigroup.

颇为讽刺的是，投资者对外卖超人保有热情的一个重要原因却是该公司的重心不在德国。几年前它将旗下包括Foodora, Lieferheld 和Pizza.de在内的德国业务打包出售给荷兰竞争对手Takeaway。从那时起，外卖超人就已着眼于中东和亚洲地区的业务扩张。去年年底公司收益的50%来自于中东和北非地区，亚洲占30%，欧洲则是12%。花旗集团的莫尼克·波拉德（Monique Pollard）表示：“本质上而言，外卖超人是一家着眼于新兴市场的企业”。

Many food-delivery firms do not operate their own fleets of vehicles but instead match consumers with restaurants and riders. That means they must share their cut with both restaurants and riders. “It is very hard to make a profit with the three-way-split model in Europe,” explains Andrew Gwynn of Exane BNP Paribas. But the model works in emerging markets where order sizes are large and delivery workers’ wages low.

许多外卖公司并不直接经营他们的车队，而是将消费者与餐馆和骑手配对。这也就是说他们必须将自己利润的一部分分给餐馆和骑手。法国巴黎银行（Exane BNP Paribas）的安德鲁·格温（Andrew Gwynn）对此的解释是“这种三分利润的模式在欧洲很难开展”。但这种模式在新兴市场却很奏效，因为那儿的订单量大，而且骑手的工资也比较低。

Delivery Hero could become a viable business, if it manages to keep its focus on the developing world and stay on top of the next wave of consolidation, which began with the combination of Just Eat and Takeaway, two European firms, earlier this year, and their proposed takeover of America’s Grubhub in June. At the very least it has a decent shot at staying in the DAX longer that firm it replaced. Wirecard, a payments-processor bankrupted earlier this year by a huge accounting fraud, was booted out of the index barely two years after its own ascension. 

如果外卖超人将重心继续放在新兴市场，并能在下一波并购潮中占据主动地位，其业务将会持续生存和发展。今年早些时候，两家欧洲公司Just Eat和Takeaway合并拉开了这波并购大戏的帷幕，他们在6月份又收购了美国的Grubhub。目前看来，至少外卖超人逗留DAX指数的时间很可能会超过被它取代的Wirecard。提供支付服务的企业Wirecard今年早些时候因巨额财务造假而破产，被赶出了DAX指数，在榜上仅停留了两年时间。

翻译组：

VeRy, 男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Sophie, 女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

业

校对组：

Humi, 女，CATer，Catti二笔

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Zoey, 女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Elle, 女，靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆

上周4个人自驾游去了古水北镇，却发现禁止私家车进景区，到了偏僻的民宿却发现竟是外卖无法送达之地，简直令人震惊。

毕竟外卖近几年发展繁荣，科技巨头们让我们的生活变得很容易了。外卖市场的角逐，从混战到三家鼎立再到双雄争霸。每天看着外卖小哥为了养家糊口忙来忙去，着实觉得挣钱不容易。仔细一想，商家卖货，外卖小哥送货，平台提供技术服务，商家和小哥不知道赚多少钱，可是平台几乎就是躺着赚钱。想想真是羡慕嫉妒。而且也走出了国门，看了BAT和京东的海外投资之路，才惊觉资本家原来都是这么玩，就好比你有了修路的想法，但发现原来人家不仅已经修了路，还硬化了路面，不禁感叹资本力量无穷。

有资本就可以一直收购收购再收购，养的足够肥，再脱手，怎么算都是不亏的买卖。就像软银投资阿里巴巴，最后都成了软银的救命稻草，细观各个行业，资本让你红，你就可以红，资本让你垮，你就会垮。资本力量果真无穷啊！普普通通老百姓，总是被不情不愿的当一颗翠绿翠绿的韭菜等着被收割。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

每日一歌一图||Day439

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491580&idx=2&sn=606c8ab82c6fca10f4f4702cdfd7a9ac&chksm=fba04c5bccd7c54dcb87486615e3d60e3a99b9d92f67d2244e66ca090850af3681e7fc9bba19#rd

我们一直寻找的，

却是自己原本早已拥有的，

我们总是东张西望，

唯独漏了自己想要的，

这就是我们至今难以如愿以偿的原因。

---End---

经济学人社论 || 被遗忘的问题

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491571&idx=1&sn=2c79f7f97f6cb82c109e7344283e8127&chksm=fba04c54ccd7c54289f48d6d99a9ca669a8a371815cac316501040a5cabb52b8dac01801e84e#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The forgotten problem

被遗忘的问题

英文部分选自经济学人20200829期Leaders版块

Dementia

痴呆症

The forgotten problem

被遗忘的问题

It requires more research, better provision for long-term care and changes in individual behaviour

这需要进行更多研究、提供长期护理以及改变个体行为

Of all the troubles facing the world, the rising prevalence of dementia might seem among the less pressing. The reason behind it—longer lifespans—is to be cheered; it does not advance at the speed of a viral infection but with the ponderous inevitability of demographic change; and its full effects will not be felt until far into the future. But the reality is very different. As our special report this week makes clear, dementia is already a global emergency. Even now, more people live with it than can be looked after humanely. No cure is in the offing. And no society has devised a sustainable way to provide and pay for the care that people with it will need.

在全世界面临的所有问题中，痴呆症患病率上升这一问题似乎并不那么紧迫。痴呆症背后的原因——更长的寿命——令人津津乐道；它并不会按照病毒感染的速度发展，但却必然随着人口结构的变化会缓慢而沉重地呈现；并且它的全部影响在短期内并不会显现。但现实却截然不同。正如我们本周的特别报告表明，痴呆症已经成为全球性紧急事件。即使是现在，很多病患并不能获得人道照顾。目前也没有治愈方法。而且没有哪个国家能够设计出一种可持续的方式来提供和支付患者所需的护理。

注：In the offing: likely to appear or happen soon 即将发生

“Dementia” is an umbrella term for a range of conditions, with a variety of causes, of which the most common is Alzheimer’s disease, accounting for 60-80% of cases. It usually starts with forgetfulness and a mild loss of cognitive functioning. But as it advances, people lose the ability to look after themselves. Many require round-the-clock care long before they die. It does not just affect the elderly, but they are much more likely to have it—and life expectancy globally has climbed from not much more than 30 a century ago to over 70 now, and over 80 in rich countries. By some estimates, 1.7% of 65- to 69-year-olds have dementia and the risk of developing it doubles every five years after that. At present, about 50m people around the world have the condition, a number expected to rise to 82m by 2030 and 150m by 2050. Most of the new cases are in the developing world, where populations are rising and ageing.

“痴呆症”是一系列病症的总称，其病因多种多样，其中最常见的是阿尔茨海默氏病，占病例的60-80％。它通常从健忘和轻度的认知功能丧失开始。但是随着疾病的恶化，患者会失去照顾自己的能力。许多患者在去世前很长一段时间内需要全天候的护理。该病并不局限于老年人，但是老年人罹患痴呆症的可能性更大，全球的预期寿命已从一个世纪前的刚刚超过30岁上升到现在的70多岁，在富裕国家则超过80岁。据估计，在65岁至69岁的人群中，有1.7％患有痴呆症，此后每年老五岁患痴呆症的风险就会增加一倍。目前，全世界约有5,000万人患有这种疾病，预计这一数字到2030年将上升到8200万，到2050年将上升到1.5亿。大多数新病例都出现在人口递增和老龄化的发展中国家。

The problems these numbers will bring everywhere have already been felt in countries where people are older, and especially acutely during lockdowns—witness the difficulty of looking after people with dementia in their own homes, and the large numbers in overstretched care homes who receive little individual attention. As families shrink, single children and grandchildren will struggle to cope with their old folk. Already, dementia care has had a knock-on effect on general health care. Before the pandemic as many as a quarter of beds in British hospitals were occupied by people with dementia. There was nowhere else for them to go.

这些数字将给全世界带来麻烦，现在已经在老年人占比较多的国家中得到了体现，尤其是在疫情封城期间——人们见证了在家里照顾痴呆症患者的困难，而在超负荷运转的护理中心，大量的老年人个体几乎得不到关注。随着家庭规模的缩小，独生子女和孙辈将难以照顾家里的老人。痴呆症护理已经对一般医疗保健产生了连锁反应。在新冠肺炎病大流行之前，英国医院里多达四分之一的床位被痴呆患者占据。他们无处可去。

注：Knock-on: causing other events to happen one after another in a series产生连锁反应的

Not all the news is bad. Recent research has shown that behaviour such as smoking less, exercising more and losing weight in middle age has reduced the risk of dementia among old people in some Western countries in the past 30 years. And America’s Food and Drug Administration has promised to decide by March 2021 whether to license a drug said to be the first to stem cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s patients. But the risk of dementia still seems to be rising in much of the world and any new therapy in the foreseeable future is likely to benefit only some patients partially.

并非所有的消息都是坏消息。最近的研究表明，在过去30年里，在一些西方国家，诸如少吸烟、多运动和中年减肥等行为降低了老年人患痴呆症的风险。美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）承诺，在2021年3月前决定是否批准一种药物，该药物据说是首个可以阻止阿茨海默症患者认知能力下降的药物。但是在世界上许多地方，痴呆症的风险似乎仍在上升，在可预见的未来，任何新的治疗方法都可能只惠及部分患者。

That is why governments should act now to lessen the social and economic harm from the growing prevalence of dementia. The first step is to recall the urgency with which many were promising to tackle the problem just a few years ago—in 2013, for example, when David Cameron, then Britain’s prime minister, used the rotating chairmanship of the G8 to convene a “dementia summit”, which promised to fund research with the goal of finding a “disease-modifying treatment” by 2025. Instead, funding for work on dementia has lagged far behind that for cancer or coronary heart disease. And as the pandemic hampers or prevents clinical trials and research, and sucks resources away from other areas, dementia risks again being left behind.

这就是为什么政府现在应该采取行动，以减轻痴呆症患病率的上升对社会和经济的危害。第一步是重新唤起几年前许多国家承诺解决这一问题的紧迫性——例如，2013年，时任英国首相戴维·卡梅伦（David Cameron）利用八国集团轮值主席的身份召开了一次“痴呆症峰会”，该峰会承诺为痴呆症研究提供资金，以期在2025年之前找到“改善疾病的疗法”。然而，用于痴呆症的研究经费远远落后于癌症或冠心病。由于新冠肺炎大流行阻碍或阻止临床试验和研究，并消耗了其他领域的资源，痴呆症的研究工作有再次被甩在后边的风险。

Governments also need to think about long-term care for people with dementia. The question that is most often asked is how to pay for it. Japan’s compulsory long-term-care insurance scheme, requiring everyone aged 40-65 to pay a premium, seems attractive, as it avoids penalising the young. But it is not self-financing. The increasing burden there as elsewhere will fall on individuals and the taxpayer.

政府还需要考虑对痴呆症患者进行长期护理。最常被问到的问题是如何支付这一护理费用。日本强制的长期护理保险计划要求所有40-65岁的人支付保险费，这看起来很有吸引力，因为它避免将年轻人陷入不利的处境。但这个计划不是经费自筹。和其他地方一样，日益增加的资金负担将落在个人和纳税人身上。

And an even more fundamental question than who pays for care is: who will do it? Undertaken with humanity and dignity, it is extremely labour-intensive. Technology can help lighten the load—using remote monitoring to let people stay at home and, perhaps in future, robots to perform some basic tasks . But looking after people with dementia requires people. The job is usually classified as low-skilled and is often poorly paid. In fact it demands huge reserves of patience, empathy and kindness. It should be better rewarded and more highly regarded even though that would add to the bill. In countries such as Japan and Britain, with acute shortages of care-workers, immigration will have to be made easier for those willing and able to do it.

比谁来支付医疗费用更根本的一个问题是:谁来提供这一医疗服务？这项高度劳动密集型的工作涉及人道和尊严。科技可以帮助减轻负荷——利用远程监控让人们呆在家里，也许在未来，机器人可以执行一些基本的任务。但是照顾痴呆症患者需要人。这类工作通常被归类为低技术含量和低报酬的工种。事实上，这需要大量的耐心、同理心和仁爱之心。这份工作应该得到更好的奖励和更高的认可，即使这样会增加费用。在像日本和英国这类护理人员严重短缺的国家，必须让那些有意愿和能力从事该项工作的人更加容易移民。

Lastly, evidence suggests that as many at 40% of cases of dementia can be delayed or averted by changing behaviour earlier in life. The trouble is that public-health campaigns have a patchy record and they do nothing for dementia’s most intractable pre-existing condition—old age. No cure, insufficient financing and a tricky public-health message: perhaps that is enough to make you throw up your hands in despair. Instead, however, it only underlines how the solutions to dementia, like the disease itself, will take decades to unfold. It is yet another reason to start working on them right away. 

最后，有证据表明，40%的痴呆病例可以通过改变早年的行为来推迟或避免。问题是，公共卫生宣传以往都很不可靠，而且它们对痴呆最棘手的先决条件——衰老——无能无力。也许无药可医、资金不足和难以捉摸的公共卫生信息足以让你绝望地举手投降。然而，这一切也足以证明，正如痴呆症的形成是个长期的过程，如何解决痴呆症的问题也需要几十年的时间才能弄清楚。这也是另一个让我们马上开始行动起来的原因。

注：

In the context of healthcare in the United States, a pre-existing condition is a medical condition that started before a person's health benefits went into effect. Before 2014 some insurance policies would not cover expenses due to pre-existing conditions.“Pre-exisiting condition”意为早就存在的疾病。在美国医疗里，这个词语用来指在医疗保险条款生效之前就已经有的疾病。但是文章中用了condition的另一个意思，“条件”，指衰老是痴呆症的先决条件。

翻译组：

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

Melody，女，咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工，经济学人粉丝儿

Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Wesley，男，英语老师，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Carole，女，经济硕士，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

3

观点|评论|思考

感想一

Samantha，女，不吃米饭，邓伦未婚妻

    从1996年开始的每个6年，由财政拨款支持的德国老年病学研究中心（DZA）都会出具一份名为《人生后半段》的本国高龄群体普查报告。除了一些常见内容，比如经济状况、社会关系和就医频率等等，还会以问卷或采访的方式了解他们对未来的担忧。2020年的数据尚未全部完成，但目前已有超过半数受访者表示，阿尔茨海默症是最可怕的生活灾难之一，与之同列的还有行动不便、贫困，和中风。作为欧洲经济领跑者的德国同时也是全球第三大老龄化社会，从他们的调查中能看到，西方世界对阿尔茨海默症的恐惧可见一斑。

    体面优雅的变老是人人都希望做到的事。以前在家的时候常听到长辈们聊天说，老了可不要给孩子们添负担，要快快的“走”。我们中国人讲孝顺，归根到底还是出于对老人的爱，因为他们先爱了我们。绝大部分老人们是如此的不想给孩子惹麻烦，爱到了不计代价、遗忘自我的程度，而现在关于“遗忘“的医学难题已困扰世界。独生子女一代的三十而立，没见几个真的能立起来的；父母们都已六十上下，他们的老去速度比预想中的快太多。就不要再说怕什么添负担，可以为爱负担是一件有福气的事，要好过来不及负担的遗憾，更好过负担不起的无奈。

    死和遗忘都很可怕，并无可比性。《寻梦环游记》里坐着摇椅的老奶奶听到熟悉的Remember me旋律就能记起童年往事，从而让自己爸爸的灵魂不再受困于某个中间地带。做一个被记住的人，好好爱自己，并把生命花在更值得的人和事上；也要尽量做一个温柔的人，不管你记不记得我，我都永远会记得你。

感想二

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

    之前在经济之声《笑傲江湖》看过一个采访，是关于国内第一家植物人看护机构的创业故事。创始人卖房借钱，只为了守护躺在病房里的植物人。

    大部分人都清楚植物人意味着什么，而对于老年痴呆症，很多人还仅仅停留在老人出现认知障碍上，殊不知，随着痴呆症的逐渐严重，对于老人的看护，陪伴和照顾是需要家人和医护尽可能的全天陪伴的。而大多数子女，尤其是独生子女，如何做到平衡支付看护费用的经济来源与全程陪伴的时间付出，是一个巨大的问题。《都挺好》这部电视剧的结尾苏大强就患了老年痴呆症，长女明玉辞掉工作，全心陪伴父亲。放在现实中，有多少人具备明玉的经济实力，以及医护条件呢？

    这篇文中提到的方法都是可行的，如果真的能将医护中心，从业人员，公益宣传，费用来源这些方面都解决，不止是老年痴呆症，其他的需要长久护理的疾病的解决办法都可以被复制。

    问题就在于，这些方法能不能被落实。当然我们看待问题要积极，在世界上看不见的地方，有很多人心怀天下，在做着惠及他人一生的事情，而这，需要我们每一个人的力量与帮助。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图||Day438

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491571&idx=2&sn=f1ec3bdff67a434dbafa15838f07bfef&chksm=fba04c54ccd7c54274d8c40da4fa37fe909025e6821952318bfc045ef841c7524a443ada36d2#rd

不论顺流还是逆风，

都按照自己的节奏，

随着自己的心意，

用心生活，

用力向上。

接受自己的普通，

然后全力以赴的出众！

---End---

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491559&idx=1&sn=1f81122af0a84cc9150276c7e8180e78&chksm=fba04c40ccd7c5566d2c035114496631bda5ea64650d3f158958e1625cbf482ed10747e12ab6#rd

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | The forgotten problem

https://www.economist.com/node/21791194?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Ascend and deliver

https://www.economist.com/node/21791241?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Big fish

https://www.economist.com/node/21791259?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. 1843 | CHILDISH THINGS

https://www.economist.com/1843/2020/08/27/santa-claus-aint-coming-to-town-is-childhood-innocence-worth-preserving

5. The Economist | Wind, sea and stars

https://www.economist.com/node/21791169?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

经济学人逝者 || 古典吉他和鲁特琴倡导者朱利安·布里姆（对不起，发晚了）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491550&idx=1&sn=2b57ab0137af2230861133a95c0e4c6b&chksm=fba04c79ccd7c56f82316934dfbe195c19ce6b2726073e63f96ff84222fab3e8988c8a742385#rd

1

导读

朱利安·布里姆：阿尔罕布拉宫的回忆

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Passion plays

激情弹奏

英文部分选自经济学人20200822期逝者版块

Obituary: Julian Bream

逝者：朱利安·布里姆

Passion plays

激情弹奏

Julian Bream, champion of the classical guitar and the lute, died on August 14th, aged 87

朱利安·布里姆，古典吉他和鲁特琴倡导者，于8月14日辞世，享年87岁。

Almost as soon as he started his long love affair with the guitar, Julian Bream was aware he was doing something disreputable. When he was caught as a teenager practising Bach in the Royal College of Music, he was warned not to bring that instrument into the building again. It lowered the tone. Signing on to do his National Service in an army band, he was told he could play piano and cello, fine, but the guitar only “occasionally”. Audiences clapped long and hard when he performed in the Wigmore Hall at 18, in 1951, but as he toured round Britain in the mid-1950s, sleeping in his Austin van to save on hotels, not many came to hear him. The guitar was not a proper instrument, somehow. Its voice was too soft to carry over an orchestra. The electric version was for pumped-up rock ’n’ rollers, the non-electric for holidays in Spain. And from Spain, the spiritual and historical home of the guitar, came the loudest scorn of all. An Englishman playing a guitar, said one virtuoso, was a kind of blasphemy.

几乎在他与吉他的漫长恋情伊始，朱利安·布里姆就知道这份爱恋拿不上台面。十几岁时，他被发现在皇家音乐学院用吉他练习巴赫的作品，学院警告他不准再把吉他带进学院大楼。吉他降低了学院的格调。在他报名军乐队入伍服兵役时，他被告知可以演奏钢琴和大提琴，这两样没问题，但吉他只能“偶尔”弹。1951年，18岁的布里姆在威格摩尔音乐厅的表演赢得了观众经久不息的热烈掌声；然而在50年代中期，当他在英国巡演时，却没有多少人来听他演奏，而他还得为了节约住宿费在自己的奥斯汀货车里过夜。怎么说呢，吉他不算是像样的乐器。吉他的声音太轻柔，在管弦乐队里传不远、没什么存在感。电吉他属于癫狂的摇滚乐手，而非电吉他则适合在西班牙度假时弹奏。但从西班牙——吉他的精神家园和历史发源地，却传来了最响亮的奚落声。某位吉他演奏大师说，一个英格兰人弹吉他，简直就是对神灵的亵渎。

But this Englishman, almost as devoted to cricket and dogs as to music, was in love, and nothing was going to deter him. His life’s passion was to restore the guitar’s reputation as a serious instrument, to bring its acres of repertory to the public, and to open their eyes to its beauty. He offered a different approach, clarity and a certain coolness, against the emotional vibrato of the Spanish style. To get the message across he toured the world, picked up four Grammys in the process, encouraged the building of guitars in England, and asked the best composers of the day—Benjamin Britten, William Walton, Michael Tippett, Hans Werner Henze—to write pieces for an instrument they had never considered before. His methods of persuasion were chummy and larky, as might be expected of a South Londoner, proudly born in Battersea between the power station and the dogs’ home: convivial drinks, invitations to his farmhouse in Dorset, races round the lanes in his classic cars, demonic table-tennis games. And they worked.

但是这个英格兰人，这个像热爱音乐一样热爱板球与狗的英格兰人，已经陷入对吉他的爱恋，没有什么能够阻挡他。他毕生的热情就是要重振吉他作为一种严肃乐器的声誉，把众多的吉他曲目呈现给大众，让他们欣赏吉他之美。与西班牙演奏风格中使用饱含情感的颤音不同，他的演奏清晰又带有一丝克制。为了让更多的人知晓吉他之美，他在全世界巡演，期间参选并四次荣获格莱美奖，他还带动了英格兰的吉他组装制作，并邀请当时最好的作曲家——本杰明·布里顿、威廉·沃尔顿、迈克尔·蒂皮特和汉斯·维尔纳·亨策——专门为吉他谱曲，而吉他是这些作曲家之前从未考虑过的乐器。他是南伦敦人，以出生在巴特西区发电站和狗狗慈善之家之间的区域为傲。他劝说这些作曲家的方式可能就正如大众对南伦敦人的想象，做法亲切又好玩：开怀畅饮，到他多赛特的农舍做客，开着他的古董车在赛道上角逐，让人欲罢不能的乒乓球赛。这些都奏效了。

In effect he had two lives. One was the gregarious whirl of jet planes, hotels, parties and interviews, when he would throw himself around in his chair with the sheer joy of talking guitars. The other was rapt communion with the object of his love. No one had taught him how to play, beyond basic scales and chords as a child. He had picked up technique for himself, and was continually stretching and perfecting it. Practice demanded at least four hours a day, but he also took long sojourns away from the stage to study, play alone and gather his thoughts. To learn Britten’s “Nocturnal after John Dowland”, which was nearly beyond him, he immured himself in a shepherd’s hut on Robert Graves’s estate in Majorca. To make recordings, he would use an empty chapel near his house, at night, with no one else there save a producer and one sound engineer. This intense need for privacy inevitably flowed over into his performances, he and his guitar alone and barely moving in the spotlight, his body bent low over the instrument, coaxing the strings to express more, wincing when they did not, opening his mouth with delight, closing his eyes, until he was almost surprised on finishing to find an audience there.

其实，他过着两种生活。一种是在交际场上游走，穿梭于喷气式飞机、酒店、派对以及采访。受访时，他会自在地坐在椅子上，陶醉于谈论吉他的快乐中。另一种则是全身心沉浸在与心爱之物的交流当中。小时候，除了基本的音阶、和弦，没人教过他如何弹奏吉他。他自己学会了弹奏技巧，并不断探索延伸及完善它。他一天至少要练4个小时，但他也会长时间远离舞台去学习、独自演奏、整理思绪。布里顿所作《约翰道兰夜曲改编曲》的难度几乎超出他能力范围，而为了学会这首曲子，他把自己关在马略卡岛上罗伯特·格雷夫斯庄园的牧羊人棚屋里潜心练习。为了录制唱片，他会在夜间使用家附近的一所空教堂，只带上一个制作人和一个音响工程师。这种对隐私的强烈需求也不可避免地体现在了他的表演中：在聚光灯下只有他和吉他，他抱着吉他几乎一动不动；他躬身靠近吉他，耐心地拨动琴弦以求更有表现力，没做到时则会皱眉蹙额；他开心地张着嘴，闭着眼演奏；这样一直持续到演奏结束，他睁开眼近乎惊讶地发现台下还有一群观众。

注：

布里顿的《夜曲》创作于1963年，献给伟大的英国吉他家布里姆，于约翰·道兰的歌曲《来吧，沉睡》而作。

Where had this passion come from? Partly from his father, who played in a dance band and left his own guitar lying about at home; partly from the burning anguish of Django Reinhardt and the Quintette du Hot Club de France; partly from watching Andrés Segovia, the greatest Spanish master of the age, closely through clenched binoculars at a London concert. Still quite young, he had followed his father’s repair of a battered Ramírez guitar, discovering the instrument’s inner life. He could tell later, simply from playing for a few minutes, how the internal bars were spaced, or what adjustment, perhaps a thousandth of an inch, was needed in the bridge saddle. He mourned lost loves: the little singing guitar made for him by José Romanillos in 1973, which after a decade had started to lose its vitality, as they all did; the noble Hauser and the Bouchet, an absolute pearl, stolen from his car in the 1960s. But the instrument’s character flaws did not escape him either. The guitar might be a great wooer, so suggestive in its fullness and complexity of tone; it could also be obstinate and shallow, a deceiver.

这种激情从何而来？部分源于他的父亲，他父亲在一个舞会伴奏乐队里做乐手，父亲自己的吉他就随意摆在家里；部分源于强哥·莱恩哈特和法国热乐五重奏所表现出的强烈的痛苦；还有一部分源于观看当代最伟大的西班牙大师安德烈斯·塞戈维亚的演奏——在伦敦的一场音乐会上，他紧握着双筒望远镜仔细观看大师。在他还很小的时候，就跟着父亲修理了一把破损的拉米雷斯吉他，发现了这种乐器内在生命。后来，他只用弹几分钟，就能知道吉他内部的音梁是怎么排列的，或者琴桥上需要做什么调整，可能只是千分之一英寸的微调。他会为失去的心爱之物哀悼：例如一把何塞·罗曼尼洛斯1973年为他制作的弹唱小吉他——这把小吉他和这类其他的小吉他一样，十年后开始失去生命力；又如在20世纪60年代从他车上被盗走的一把高贵的豪瑟吉他和一把绝对称得上是珍宝的布谢吉他。但吉他这种乐器固有的特征缺陷也没能瞒得过他。吉他可以是个出色的追求者，它饱满、复杂的音色引人遐想；但它也可能是顽固的、是肤浅的，是个骗子。

注：

1.赫尔曼·豪瑟一世（1882-1952）被认为是最优秀的德国吉他制作大师，也是迄今为止世界上最有代表性的吉他制作大师之一。他继承并发展了托列斯的制作传统，并以他特有的“日尔曼人的工程原则”加以实现。

2.罗伯特·布谢曾经为布里姆制作过三把吉他，其中第二把布里姆最喜欢。在他所著的A Life on the Road一书中, 他是这样评价的：“He made three instruments for me, the second one being an absolute pearl. It had a beautiful sound, and a sustaining quality throughout its whole register like a small eighteenth century organ. I treasured that instrument like no other.”

In that respect he seemed to love the lute even more. This, too, he rescued from ignorance and virtual obsolescence, revelling in its repertory of songs and sad airs from Tudor and Elizabethan times. (He supposed that, like all jesters, he was a melancholy person underneath.) Again, he taught himself to play, starting as a boy on a lute picked up by his father, dodgily, for a couple of quid on Charing Cross Road. He persevered with this new enterprise of plucking with his nails rather than fingering, and formed a consort of period instruments to revive the music, mostly, of Dowland and Thomas Morley. The tenor Peter Pears teamed up with him for lute songs. Against the democratic guitar, played from street corner to (now, at last) concert hall, the lute struck him as more beautiful, more aristocratic, more honest. It was also guarded by scholars, who criticised his technique until, in his usual style, he shut himself away and worked out mutually, just man, instrument and many packs of Gauloises, what needed to be done.

在这一点上，他似乎更爱鲁特琴一些。和吉他一样，他把鲁特琴从被忽视和过时中解救了出来，沉迷于鲁特琴的很多保留曲目和来自都铎和伊丽莎白时代的悲伤的咏叹调（他认为自己就和所有弄臣一样，内心忧郁悲伤。）和学吉他一样，他自学鲁特琴。从孩提时代，他就用他爸买的琴练习，那把琴是他爸机智地只用了几英镑就从查令十字街买回来的。他坚持进行着这项新的弹奏事业，用指甲拨弦而不是用手指弹奏，还组了一个古乐器演奏团，重现那个年代的乐曲（大部分是道兰和托马斯·莫利所作）。男高音彼得·皮尔斯和他合作，共同演绎用鲁特琴伴奏的歌曲。吉他亲民，无论在街角还是在音乐厅（现在总算可以了）都可以演奏；而鲁特琴则不同，鲁特琴给他一种更加美妙、更加高贵、更加真挚的印象。同样有一批学者对鲁特琴墨守成规，他们批判他的演奏技巧；直到布里姆像往常一样将自己隔绝起来，在只有他、乐器和一包包高炉香烟的空间里，他们共同探索需要做些什么。

One great attraction of the lute was its relative Englishness. The spirit that lived in it, and had done since the wood was first fashioned from the tree, was one he instinctively understood. All through, though, he knew that the spirit of the guitar had been infused in Spain. There was no getting away from this, nor from the country whose language he never spoke but whose music made up most of his life. So in 1985 he tipped his English hat to it, with an eight-part TV series called “¡Guitarra!” in which he described the history of the instrument, went to bars, smoked cigars and played in Spanish cloisters, villas and castles, looking perfectly at home.

鲁特琴的一大吸引力在于它比古典吉他更具英伦气息。这种存在于鲁特琴中的精神，自木头从树上被砍下塑形起就停留其中的精神，他可以本能地心领神会。其实，他自始至终都知道，吉他的精神源自西班牙。是没有办法回避这个根源的、也没有办法回避西班牙这个国家。布里姆一直不会说西班牙语，但西班牙的音乐却在他的生命中占有很大的分量。所以在1985年，他以英国人的身份向西班牙致意，拍了一部名为《吉他！》的八集电视系列片里。片中他介绍吉他的历史，去往酒吧，抽雪茄，然后在西班牙修道院的回廊、乡间庄园和城堡里弹奏着吉他，看起来完全就像在自己家里一样舒适自得。

注：

tip your hat/cap (to somebody): to touch or raise your hat as a greeting to someone 向某人抬帽致意；(AmE) to say or do something that shows you admire what someone has done 对某人表示赞赏

Yet perfection was always two steps off. Did he feel, an interviewer once asked him, that he had removed the tag of “blasphemy” from an Englishman playing the guitar? Had he, in fact, sanctified it? The question stunned him for a moment. Then he stammered, with his flat London vowels, “Not necessarily.”

然而完满总在两步之遥。有一次采访者问他，他是否认为自己已经让弹吉他的英国人摘下“亵渎神灵”的标签？他是不是实际上让这个身份变得神圣起来？这个问题让他愣了好一阵子，然后他结结巴巴地用他平淡的伦敦腔说：“也未必吧。”

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人

Sheri，坚信可以forever young的老年人

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉

Qianna，追求专业的非英专，很讲逻辑，英伦摇滚迷

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

    为香港武侠小说多次配乐的胡伟立曾经说：“音乐没有高低贵贱，只有好听不好听。”我们也应该报以更开放、更包容的心怀去看待音乐，乃至去看待一切的文化和艺术，流行的不一定不能成为经典。诗三百，整体分成“风”“雅”“颂”，其中最令人印象深刻，公认艺术成就最高的是“风”，这种艺术形式来自普通人民的劳动生活，反映人们热切关注的问题，用词也总是很平常，比如“一日不见，如三月兮”、“窈窕淑女，君子好逑”等等。用现在的话说，能够契合人们关注点的艺术是“有市场的”，就像《信天游》反映出改革开放初见成效，人们压抑已久的情绪终于得到释放一样，《骑上我心爱的小摩托》用简单、重复、戏谑的快餐音乐让很多忙碌疲惫的人们找到一个停顿点。

    朱利安布里姆的音乐区别于西班牙传统热情奔放的弗拉明戈，也区别于英伦式的端庄，他的音乐像不太宽阔的河流，漱漱地平静地流淌，像夏日飘窗下昏暗房间里忽明忽灭的烟头，让人浮想联翩，迫不及待地想知道接下来的故事。

    我们缅怀朱利安布里姆，感激他以一己之力为古典吉他正名，感激他用出众的才华打动人心。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day437

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491550&idx=2&sn=5691c28199e92ee57af2c369cadbdda2&chksm=fba04c79ccd7c56fbba3fe3d70778e3dcdc5a675d1afae726d7d56256e47e0be5ee81d0dc95d#rd

世态炎凉，

无需迎合，

人情冷暖，

勿去在意。

身在万物中，

心在万物上。

---End---

经济学人文艺 || 为什么说“星巴克语”？

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491537&idx=1&sn=cb253983bfceeb042283b1c97ac40da2&chksm=fba04c76ccd7c560f5ab0d6c3c14e6836dabf1678a7777804a188998ac032f8ebba1a8bf9a56#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组 

BRAND ILLUSIONS

浸入式品牌幻觉

英文部分选自经济学人双月刊生活方式杂志1843

BRAND ILLUSIONS

浸入式品牌幻觉

Why we speak Starbucks

为什么说“星巴克语”

How brands use language to create tribes

品牌如何利用语言形成消费族群

扩展阅读：星巴克的中杯、大杯、超大杯，蕴含了哪些玄机

http://www.woshipm.com/marketing/2194818.html 

You used to be able to walk into a café and get a coffee with minimal fuss. These days ordering a drink requires knowledge of a sophisticated lexicon. Seasoned customers of Starbucks, the world’s biggest chain of coffee shops, utter a rapid-fire trail of adjectives when asking for a drink, rehearsing a menu system that blends generic descriptions of hot drinks – half caf, black, no-whip – with branded jargon. Instead of small, medium and large, the company touts its own set of sizes: tall, grande, venti and trenta (the last two are trademarked by Starbucks). The coffee chain also has a particular language to describe how the milk should be added, referring to macchiatos as “marble” and mochas as “zebra”. Starbucks even uses its own grammar: you say your size before your syrup, your preferred milk before your primary drink.

过去，你可以走进一家餐饮小食店，轻而易举地点上一杯咖啡。但如今，如果要点咖啡，你得会使用咖啡界的复杂术语。在全球最大的连锁咖啡店星巴克，他们的菜单在普通的热饮描述语（低咖啡因，黑咖啡，不加鲜奶油）中混入了自己品牌的专用术语，所当老客户点单时，通常会像背书似的蹦出一长串形容词。与一般对咖啡容量大小的称呼小（small)、中(medium)、大(large)三个规格不同，星巴克的咖啡有自己的一套形容词：中杯(tall)、大杯(grande)、超大杯(venti)和特大杯(trenta)（其中，后面两个型号已被星巴克注册）。星巴克同样也有一套特别用语来描述如何添加牛奶：称玛奇朵为“大理石”，称摩卡为“斑马”。它甚至还有自己的语法体系：在说要什么糖浆之前，先说要多大规格的咖啡；在点咖啡之前，要先说出偏好的牛奶种类。

The company enshrined these linguistic rules in a booklet in 2003, “Make It Your Drink”. Starbucks claims it came up with the system to enable baristas to make drinks more quickly and efficiently. Branding experts say it is also an ingenious way of forging customer loyalty. Companies that persuade people to use their own terminology create “a sense of belonging and enhanced loyalty to the brand” according to Dawn Lerman, a professor of marketing at Fordham University in New York, in her book “The Language of Branding”.

星巴克在2003年出版的一本名为《你的专属饮品》（“Make It Your Drink”）的小册子中，将这些语言规则奉为圭臬。星巴克表示，创造这样的语言体系旨在让咖啡师更快、更高效地制作咖啡。品牌专家则认为，这是培养顾客忠诚度的一种别具匠心的方式。纽约福坦莫大学营销学教授道恩·勒曼（ Dawn Lerman）在她《品牌语言》（“The Language of Branding”）一书中写道，有的公司说服消费者使用其专门用语，以营造一种归属感，提高顾客对品牌的忠诚度。

Sociologists have long argued that people become part of a “speech community” when they use specialised vocabulary, which creates a feeling of shared values. Every time a company gets a consumer to refer to its product using branded terminology rather than a generic description – Whoppers, say, rather than burgers – it is drawing them in to its own community. In so doing, it makes them more likely to buy its products in future.

社会学家一直认为，人们在使用某种专业词汇时，就成为了“语言社区”中的一分子，而“社区”这一概念也会营造出一种拥有共同的价值观的感觉。每一次商家让消费者（习惯）使用其品牌术语，而非一般性术语时，（比如，在汉堡王就用whopper（皇堡）来指代burger（汉堡）），就已经将消费者吸引到了自己的群体中。这样一来，顾客就更有可能购买其产品。

Many companies use this technique. When hungry Californians order a meal at In-N-Out, a burger chain, they need to specify the ratio of cheese slices to patties: a “triple double” means two burgers sandwiched between three slices of cheese, whereas ordering a “4x3” will get you four patties and three cheese slices. CrossFit, a fitness firm, boasts a vocabulary so extensive that the internet is riddled with CrossFit glossaries. Firebreather denotes a particularly dedicated CrossFit athlete; wod means the “workout of the day”. As one enthusiastic customer blogged: “All this helps to create a ‘tribe’ that members identify with.”

很多公司都会利用这种手段。比如加州人在饿了的时候在汉堡连锁店In-N-Out点餐时，他们需要详细说明自己的汉堡中要加芝士和肉饼的添加比例，比如，三乘二（triple double）的意思是两个汉堡中间夹着三层芝士，两层肉饼；然而，一份“四乘三”的意思是四片肉饼三层芝士。美国健身公司CrossFit的健身术语体系涵盖面如此广泛以至于网络上CrossFit的健身词汇随处可见。例如，“Firebreather”指一个特别投入的CrossFit运动员，而“WOD”专指“每日训练计划”。正如一位热心客户在博客上写道：“所有这些都有利于建立一个让顾客产生共鸣的‘群体’。”

扩展知识：

1. In-N-Out Burger

In-N-Out汉堡是美国西海岸一家地方性的连锁快餐店。于1948年由Harry与Esther Snyder夫妇在加州Baldwin Park市首次创建。现在的In-N-Out总部位于美国加州尔湾市，而连锁店则分布到了加州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、犹他州、与得州。至2011年3月止，这家连锁餐厅已有258家分店。In-N-Out汉堡连锁店已有相当一部分忠诚顾客，并且在顾客满意度调查中多次名列前茅。In-N-Out汉堡于2012年1月在香港宝马山举行试食会，并计划在香港开设美国境外首家分店。

2. Crossfit：是一间美国健身公司，于2000年由Greg Glassman 创立，与健美不同，它不以身体外型为主，不强调孤立肌肉训练，而是以获得特定的运动能力为目标，通过多种以自身重量、负重 为主的高次数、快速、爆发力的动作增强自己的体能和运动能力，它以发展有氧/心肺功能、耐力、力量、灵活性、爆发力、速度、协调性、敏捷性、平衡性和准确性10个身体要素，完成运动所需要的条件。

Starbucks not only has a branded vocabulary but a system for teaching it. As well as publishing the “Make It Your Drink” language guide, the company has trained its baristas to reply to customers in Starbucks lingo, turning a “small cappuccino with an extra shot and foam” into a “double-tall cap, extra dry”. Whether they want it or not, these days Starbucks customers get a shot of vocab with their tall skinny latte.

星巴克不仅仅有自己的品牌词汇，还有一套词汇教学系统。除了出版《你的专属饮品》这本术语指南外，星巴克还训练自己的咖啡师用品牌专用术语来回复顾客。比如，正常语境中的“给我一个小杯加浓多奶泡的卡布奇诺”就会转变为“double-tall cap, extra dry”（双倍浓度中杯卡布奇诺，多加奶泡）。不管顾客愿意与否，如今，当星巴克的顾客喝着中杯脱脂拿铁时，都上了一堂星巴克专用术语课。

注释：

1. Double Tall Cap：星巴克杯子分类，中杯-Tall， 大杯-Grande， 超大杯-Venti。浓缩咖啡配比为T-1, G-2, V-2，所以Double Tall cap 也等于 Extra shot tall cap，意思是在原有一份浓度的基础上多加一份浓度意思。（Shot-在星巴克特指浓缩咖啡，俗称浓度。一个Shot等于一个浓度，便于记录。）

2. 卡布奇诺 Cappuccino：可缩写为Cap，成分和Latte类似，只是奶泡更多。想要多一点牛奶，就是wet cappuccino，反之就是dry cappuccino。

翻译组：

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者 

校对组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本期感想

Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿～

Starbucks这一名字取自小说《Moby Dick》（《白鲸》）中爱喝咖啡的大副，创始人舒尔茨认为该名字既能让人想起海上冒险故事，又暗含着早期咖啡商人环游四海寻找好咖啡豆的历史，有点饮水思源的意味。而其绿白相间的logo则是与海妖塞壬有关，小说中海妖以其歌声吸引航海者，而星巴克logo则是将自己比作海妖，将顾客比作航海者，寓意星巴克对顾客有极强的吸引力。

而文中提到的星巴克语：从tall, grande, venti, trenta到extra dry等，是星巴克品牌战略以语言为出发点，从五官感知抓住消费者的心理，从而产生归属感，吸引忠实的客户群。此外，从视觉出发的一点是，每每去星巴克排队点单，总是横向排队，这完全不同于KFC或是大部分餐饮店铺的场景，而这样做带来的最大效果是每位顾客都能看到工作台调制饮品的过程，并且这也大大降低了等待的焦虑感，大家可以试想一下排竖队时的心情，时不时张望工作台，内心OS：怎么这么慢？什么时候能轮到我？这些都是从细微的心理方面塑造了对星巴克品牌的认同感和归属感。

星巴克的品牌文化让我感触颇深，自认为喝的是星巴克的文化，而不是它的产品。舒尔茨提出过“第三空间”文化，创造一个可以作为家，公司/学校以外的第三空间，让消费者爱上星巴克。确实，之前屡次去学校周边的星巴克自习，是追求这样一种环境和生活方式，给我一种今天我既学习了也娱乐了的感受！

总而言之，星巴克的咖啡点心满足了我们的生理需求，咖啡馆的氛围满足了安全需求，良好的服务和尊重顾客满足了被尊重的需要，惬意的环境为我们提供了聊天聚会，商业交谈，休息放松的场所，以及点单时星巴克的专属语言，满足了归属和爱（社交）的需要。深受这一立体文化产品的吸引，从而接纳这个第三空间。

对比Luckin Coffee，其咖啡宣言是：“你喝的是咖啡，还是咖啡馆？我们只需要你为咖啡本身付费。”“好的咖啡，其实不贵。”这直接将矛头对准了星巴克，当然没有好坏之分，选择权在于消费者。

最后，还有其他的Starbucks小心机吗？欢迎评论交流。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

每日一歌一图 || Day436

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491537&idx=2&sn=c694553dde7403b4d21721ea695f954f&chksm=fba04c76ccd7c560b93b8d422f09e642f60e82203775ea7814e85b6d6ffff516f036f7fba9ee#rd

想要改变人生，

你需要的其实不是机会，

而是勇气。

Often what people need to make changes to their lives isn't the opportunity,

but the courage to do so.

The Making of an Ordinary Woman, 2019

---End---

经济学人财经 || 泡沫派对

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491523&idx=1&sn=37eec22d1927fcf1e95332a262a8a32e&chksm=fba04c64ccd7c572e157c52d6486f98132abcfbc00d90ddca1bd33c7b094b91efdd7c4772671#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Foam party

泡沫派对

英文部分选自经济学人20200822期财经版块

Foam party

泡沫派对

Bubble-hunting has become more art than science

追逐泡沫，如今更像一门艺术而不是科学

Upon being sucked into investing during the South Sea Bubble, Sir Isaac Newton reflected that he could “calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of people”. From tulip mania in 17th-century Amsterdam to railway fever in Victorian Britain, history is littered with tales of investors who lost their heads shortly before they lost their shirts, in the grip of mass delusions described by Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, as “irrational exuberance”.

在南海泡沫事件被卷入投资的艾萨克·牛顿爵士（Sir Isaac Newton）曾反思道，他能够“计算天体的运动，却无法计算民众的疯狂”。从17世纪阿姆斯特丹的郁金香狂热，到英国维多利亚时代的铁路投机狂潮，历史充满了有关投资者丧失理智后立马落得个身无分文的典故。美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）将这种强烈的集体错觉描述为“非理性繁荣”。

These delusions seem obvious with the cold clarity of hindsight. Spotting them in real time, however, is trickier—especially when the usual measures of frothiness are out of action. Wall Street types typically pore over price-to-earnings ratios, which compare a firm’s value with its profits, or free-cashflow measures, which look at the cash firms crank out after investment. Warren Buffett targets firms with a high return on capital, which compares their profits with the size of their balance-sheets. But the covid-induced economic slump has caused earnings to sink even as the Fed and other policymakers have helped buoy share prices. The obvious gauges of frothiness are not much use.

事后冷静而清晰地来看，这些错觉似乎很容易识别，但当下要发现它们却实属不易，特别是当那些发现泡沫的常用方法已失去作用。华尔街派通常仔细研究市盈率（即对比公司价值与利润）或自由现金流方法（即观察公司在满足投资需要后剩余的现金流量）。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）把具有高资本回报率的公司作为目标对象，即对比公司的利润和其资产负债规模。但即便有美联储和其他政策制定者支撑股价，新冠疫情引起的经济衰退已经导致收益大幅下降。公认的泡沫判定方法已经无效。

This poses a problem for investors confronting the startling fact that the s&p 500, a share-price index of America’s biggest public companies, reached an all-time high on August 18th in the middle of perhaps the sharpest ever economic downturn. Without hard numbers to count on, they must interpret the market’s unusual behavioural signals in order to spot the froth.

当前的形势就给投资者带来了一大难题，令他们大吃一惊的是：在有可能是有史以来最严重的经济衰退期间，记录美国最大的500家上市公司的股票指数——标普500指数却于8月18日创下了历史新高。没有可靠的参考数据，他们必须解释市场异常的行为信号来找出泡沫。

One such sign is the mystifying moves in some stocks. On August 19th Apple became the first American company to touch a valuation of $2trn. Tesla, a carmaker that is undertaking a stock split at the end of August, has quadrupled in value so far this year. It is now worth $354bn, more than Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen combined. Nikola, an electric-truck firm (that has yet to make any lorries), has tripled in value since May. Even more perplexing was investors’ fondness for Hertz, a car-rental firm. Its share price rose tenfold after it declared bankruptcy (though this bubble has since popped).

其中一个明显的信号是一些股票价格的变动令人困惑。8月19日，苹果成为首家市值突破2万亿美元的美国公司。汽车制造商特斯拉将在8月底进行股票拆分，其股价今年迄今已翻了两番。目前市值达3540亿美元，超过了福特、丰田和大众的市值总和。电动卡车公司尼古拉（一车未造）的价格自从5月以来涨至三倍。更匪夷所思的是投资者对于租车公司赫兹的喜爱。这家公司的股价在它宣布破产后还暴涨十倍（虽然从那以后这个泡沫就破了）。

Anecdotally at least, this frothiness seems linked to a second phenomenon: a zeal for retail investing. Take, for instance, the popularity of Robinhood, a trading platform, which has opened 3m accounts since the end of 2019, taking its users to 13m. Or consider “r/wallstreetbets”, a forum on Reddit, which encourages its readers to make “yolo” (you only live once) bets on short-dated speculative options (akin to lottery tickets) in order to earn “tendies” (short-term gains). The number of subscribers to it has nearly doubled since January to over 1.4m, edging out its staid cousin, “r/investing”, which preaches the virtues of punting on diversified baskets of low-cost index funds.

至少从传闻来看，赫兹的泡沫似乎与第二个现象有关: 散户投资情绪狂热。以交易平台罗宾侠（Robinhood）的人气为例，该平台自2019年底以来已增开300万账户，用户数量达到1300万。另一个例子是“ Wallstreetbets” ，这是在Reddit（类似国内的知乎） 上的一个分论坛，它打着“你只活一次（Yolo, You only live once）”的旗号，鼓励用户进行短期期权投机（类似于彩票），以赚取“短期收益 ”（Tendies）。自今年1月以来，该网站的注册用户几乎增加了一倍，现已超过140万，超过了其死板的“表亲” “Investing”，这个板块通常鼓励投资于多元化低成本的指数基金组合。

注：

1. r/wallstreetbets：也称为WallStreetBets或WSB，是Reddit上的一个社区，参与者可以在其中讨论股票和期权交易。

2. YOLO：是you only live once的首字母缩略字。如同carpe diem和memento mori两句拉丁文俗语一样，YOLO鼓励人们即使冒着生命危险也要享受人生。

That exuberance has been matched by a third behavioural oddity: companies’ enthusiasm for issuance. Dealogic, a data provider, finds that stock issuance in America has jumped by 85% year-on-year so far in 2020. Part of that may be a result of the pandemic; many companies have raised capital to build up war-chests. But issuance is also compelling in bubblier times, because it allows firms to capitalise on lofty valuations. Hertz tried to raise up to $1bn in new equity after it had filed for bankruptcy, before regulators intervened.

与这种狂热一同出现的还有第三种行为怪象: 公司对发行股票的热情。数据提供商迪罗基（Dealogic）发现，2020年至今，美国的股票发行量同比增长了85％。其中一部分原因可能是新冠，许多公司已经筹集资金作为专款以应对紧急情况。但在泡沫时期，发行股票也很有吸引力，因为它能让公司利用高估值获利。在申请破产保护之后，赫兹曾试图筹集至多10亿美元的新股本，但遭到了监管机构的干预。

Moreover, after a hiatus in the first half of the year, tech firms are rushing to list. Special-purpose acquisition companies (spacs)—listed shell companies that then merge with private firms, offering a speedy, back-door route to going public—are all the rage. spacs were once a dirty word on Wall Street, thought fit only for firms unworthy of an initial public offering. But now they are in favour with firms and investors. They have raised $12bn so far this year, just shy of the amount raised in all of 2019.

此外，在经历了上半年的停摆后，科技企业正在争相上市。特殊目的收购公司（SPACs)盛行， 即已上市的空壳公司与未上市的公司合并，为上市提供一条走后门的捷径。特殊目的收购公司曾经是华尔街的脏字，被认为只适合那些不值得首次公开发行（IPO)的企业。但如今，它们受到了企业和投资者们的青睐。年初至今已经融资120亿美元，仅比2019的全年总融资额略少一些。

What to do, in the face of all this enthusiasm? Other assets may start to seem more alluring. On August 14th Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett’s investment firm, said that it had sold chunks of its stakes in banks and bought up shares in Barrick Gold, a mining company. But gold and other assets have also shot up in value this summer.

面对热情应该做什么？其他资产可能开始变得更有吸引力。今年8月14日，巴菲特先生的投资公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）表示，已经卖掉手中大量的银行股，而新建仓矿业公司巴里克黄金（Barrick Gold）。黄金和其他资产的价格在这个夏天都飞涨。

As markets rise further it may become even harder to resist joining the fray. Some investors may pile in, and exit with a profit. But even the most brilliant minds can be bamboozled. Sir Isaac spotted the bubble early and liquidated his holdings—only to be sucked back in at the very peak.

随着市场进一步上行，投资者更难拒绝加入这场竞争。一些投资者可能会蜂拥而入，再获利离场。然而即使最聪明的人也可能会被骗。牛顿很早就发现了泡沫并变现了所持资产，不料却在股价顶峰时连本带利给还了回去。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Alex，女，小研究员一枚，经济学人粉丝

Chao，男，爱读书思考的DPhil Candidate，TE粉丝

Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

各国央行在经历COVID-19之后都纷纷释放流动性以保护市场主体，无论之前各国之前的货币政策是适中、较宽松还是偏紧，也无论利率水平是多少，因为各国央行知道COVID-19对企业、居民的现金流、日常经营会有极大影响。

但是货币政策的松紧只决定总量，央行并不能左右资金流向哪个行业、哪家企业，这些微观企业经营决策并不是央行的货币政策能左右的。举一个例子：每每央行释放资金，资金往往会往房地产跑，这是企业、居民、银行、政府各自基于自身利益的考量而形成的局面。银行能够得到土地抵押且房地产贷款收益率高，房地产可以借着资金释放融到更便宜的资金、居民蜂拥而上排队摇号，只要之后房价起飞自己可以少奋斗30年，中央政府不敢让房地产崩盘因为那意味着银行体系坏账集中爆发会形成银行危机进而演变成货币危机，而地方政府受困于分税制改革后财权事权不对等，不得不依靠土地财政。而最近两年，随着经济下行，政府下决心要扭转这个恶性循环，以设置最高限价、点名批评等方式管制一手房房价。如果缺少管制，看上去市场自身没有别的力量能让房价冷却。

同样的，央行也并不能决定有多少资金流入股票市场。各国央行在释放流动性后，各国股指也基本在两周内回升到疫情爆发之前的高度。股票价格是企业未来现金流的折现，从这个角度出发，这意味着市场参与者认为虽然目前企业短期内利润表非常不好看，但是因为目前有着充裕资金的帮助，企业可以挺过目前阶段，在未来企业可以创造出符合当前股价的现金流。这个前提假设是，市场参与者的判断是正确的。

另一种情况是，市场错了。现在的情况是，更多的资金在追逐在疫情之前相同数量的资产，显然股票权证会相对货币升值，货币相对贬值。但这只体现了目前的供需状况，如果考虑到日后央行逐渐退出目前的宽松货币政策的话，目前的估值相对于以后来说是偏高的，因为届时市场上的货币会变得更少。

从目前来看，鉴于COVID-19在美国依旧严重，美联储在短期内并没有退出当前货币政策的打算，以及大选在即总统需要争取华尔街、大企业家、财阀们的选票，也许目前的估值是合理的。

文章有讲到retail-investor，即散户，在reddit上的注册账户大幅增多的现象。但是reddit上的散户注册账户变多和大量散户真正入市是有区别的，需要更多数据验证。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

每日一歌一图 || Day435

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491523&idx=2&sn=d81e686712af5d91a8d6dfbc864108d5&chksm=fba04c64ccd7c57282bf639e6beedf3fbe3c2caf61f4d3292deb2efa7625b89945f764f011b8#rd

在这个时代，

还能够经常赞美和欣赏的人，

一定是最具备内心安全感的人。

水深火热的人，

正在忙于各种指尖上的批判。

---End---

经济学人商业 || 恰似1999年的狂欢

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491508&idx=1&sn=6e5fd2593048b4b6283c44c47fe9a587&chksm=fba04c13ccd7c50598a1aa9d04bcd85005814a54c5c81f31064232bb682d61d69ca865a438dd#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Partying like it’s 1999

恰似1999年的狂欢

英文部分选自经济学人20200822期Business版块

Technology listings

科技企业上市

Partying like it’s 1999

恰似1999年的狂欢

Initial public offerings are back in Silicon Valley amid the pandemic, after a fashion

疫情之下，IPO跌跌撞撞，重返硅谷

注：

After a fashion: in a sufficient but rudimentary or unimpressive manner/in an inadequate or incomplete way 勉强

The IPO is dead, long live the IPO. When the pandemic hit in March, initial public offerings, particularly those by technology startups, were predicted to be among the early victims. After all, who wants to go public in a once-in-a-century crisis?

IPO已矣，IPO永世。三月，新冠病毒来袭时，人们预测，科技初创企业的IPO首当其冲，成为第一批牺牲品。毕竟，谁会在百年一遇的灾难来临时头铁着去上市呢？

注：The IPO is dead, long live the IPO

源自The King is dead, long live the King

Quite a few people, it turns out. In the past couple of months IPOs, which all but dried up until late May, have come back with a vengeance in America. None of Silicon Valley’s recent and upcoming listings rivals that of Ant Group. The payments affiliate of Alibaba, an online giant, wants to raise a record $30bn in China by October, which could value the firm at around $200bn. But America’s technology startups have brought in $10bn so far this year (see chart 1)—and there is more to come. On August 19th Airbnb, which rents homes to travellers, filed for an IPO. Other privately held “unicorns” reportedly ready for public pastures include Snowflake Computing, which makes cloud software; DoorDash, which delivers food; and Instacart, which delivers groceries. Add Palantir, a cryptic data-management firm preparing for a direct sale of existing shares in public markets, and the latest combined valuation of these five is $80bn, according to Pitchbook, a data provider. Even if they float only a portion of their shares, billions-worth of fresh tech stocks will soon trade publicly.

事实证明，猛士还是挺多的。过去几个月里，美国的IPO越来越少，但在五月底却气势汹汹，卷土重来。硅谷近来甚至不久后的IPO都无法与蚂蚁集团相提并论。蚂蚁集团是互联网巨头阿里巴巴旗下的在线支付业务，意图于十月前在中国进行前所未有的300亿美元融资。如此一来，公司估值便可能达到2000亿美元左右。但同样是今年，美国的科技初创企业目前为止已筹集到了100亿美元（见表一），未来还会更多。8月19日，民宿网站爱彼迎申请IPO。据报道，其他许多私人控股的“独角兽”企业也已经做好了上市准备，其中有云端软件公司Snowflake Computing；外卖公司DoorDash；在线杂货配送平台Instacart。此外，神秘的数据处理公司Palantir也正准备通过直接挂牌的方式上市。（注：传统的IPO需要等待限售期的解禁）数据提供商Pitchbook的信息显示，这五家公司的最新估值合计800亿美元。即便这些公司只发行一部分股份，价值数十亿的新科技股也将很快出现在公开市场。

注：

1. All but: 几乎，差一点 = just about/pretty much

2. Cryptic adj. 神秘的

3. Float: v. to sell shares in a company or business to the public for the first time （公司或企业）发行（股票）上市 The company was floated on the stock market in 2011. Shares were floated at five pounds.

4. InStacart https://www.instacart.com/

This flurry of activity has not reached dotcom-bubble territory from the turn of the century, when dozens of startups floated each month. But there is a whiff of “irrational exuberance” in the air, detects Lise Buyer, who has watched technology stocks since the heady late 1990s and now helps startups with IPOs at Class V Group, an advisory firm. When Duck Creek, an insurance-tech company, went public on August 14th, it closed nearly 50% higher. BigCommerce, an online-shopping platform which floated a week earlier, saw its shares “pop” by more than 200%.

这波上市潮没有像世纪之交那次演变成互联网泡沫，当时每个月几十家公司上市。但是丽丝•拜耶（Lise Buyer）嗅到空气中夹杂着一丝“非理性繁荣”的气息。自令人陶醉的20世纪90年代末起，丽丝•拜耶就在关注科技股，她目前任职于咨询公司Class V Group，帮助初创公司IPO。保险科技公司Duck Creek于8月14日上市，收盘时股价上涨了近50%。一周前，电商平台BigCommerce上市，其股价暴涨逾200%。

注：

1. A whiff of 一阵…的气味/一点点 a whiff of perfume

2. Irrational exuberance 非理性繁荣

With the S&P 500 index of big American firms at an all-time high, never mind that covid-19 rages on, investors’ rationality is certainly up for debate (see Buttonwood). But for many startups, the desire to go public is perfectly rational, for two reasons.

随着美国大公司的标准普尔500指数处于历史高位，就算不考虑新冠疫情来势汹汹，投资者的理性程度也有待商榷。但对于很多初创公司来说，上市的愿望是完全理性的，原因有二。

The first has to do with the financial markets themselves. Venture capitalists who had been pouring billions into unlisted firms began to cool on frothy startups before the pandemic, after a few unicorn listings disappointed (Lyft and Uber) or collapsed (WeWork). At the same time, rock-bottom interest rates are pushing public capital to seek returns. As a result, stockmarket investors are ready to accept high valuations, says Lauren Cummings of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank and a leading underwriter of IPOs. “There is insatiable demand by public investors,” agrees Brian Feinstein of Bessemer Venture Partners, a venture-capital (VC) firm.

第一，与金融市场本身有关。几家独角兽上市企业要么表现令人失望（Lyft和Uber）要么倒闭（WeWork）之后，风险投资人（已经在未上市企业注入了数十亿资金）对夸夸其谈的初创公司的投资热情在新冠肺炎之前就开始降温。与此同时，降至谷底的利率也在推动公众资本寻求其他途径的回报。因此，投资银行摩根士丹利（IPO主要承销商）的劳伦·卡明斯(Lauren Cummings)表示，股市投资者已经准备好接受高估值。风险投资公司贝塞麦(Bessemer )的布赖恩·费恩斯坦(Brian Feinstein)也表示赞同：“公众投资者的需求是永远无法满足的”。

注：

1. Frothy adj.起泡的，华而不实的 frothy coffee/frothy smoothie/a frothy … industry/market (充满泡沫的某个行业or市场)

2. Insatiable adj.不知足的 an insatiable appetite/curiosity/thirst

Startups are keen to slake it before it dissipates. Many firms are therefore dusting off listing plans that were put on hold in the wake of the ride-hailing duds and the WeWork snafu. Their case is bolstered because—and this is the second reason for startups’ listing-lust—the pandemic has been a boon for many tech firms.

故而初创公司都渴望在投资者需求消失前抓住良机。为此，许多公司都在重启受Lyft、Uber和WeWork事件影响而被搁置的上市计划。这些上市计划得到了各方面的支持，因为新冠疫情已经成为许多科技公司的福音。这也是初创公司渴望上市的第二个原因。

注：

1.Slake v. to satisfy a desire 满足欲望，解渴 slake your thirst

2.Dissipate v. to gradually become weaker until it disappears 消散，消失 Eventually, his anger dissipated.

3.Dust off 抹去灰尘/重启

4.Dud n. a thing that is useless, especially because it does not workcorrectly 不中用的东西；废物

5.Snafu n. a situation in which nothing happens as planned 混乱局面 = chaos/disorder

6.【Idiom】in the wake of sth, following or as a result of something. 栗子：Nobody should act rashly in the wake of this report.

The five big platforms—Alphabet’s Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—have thrived as self-isolating consumers spend more time and money online, and firms splash out on cloud-computing services to enable remote working. On August 19th Apple briefly touched a market capitalisation of $2trn, the first American company to do so. Not-so-big tech, too, has benefited, including many companies that have recently gone public.

随着自我隔离的消费者在网上花费的时间和金钱越来越多，公司纷纷在云计算服务上大笔投入以实现远程工作，五大平台谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、脸书和微软得以蓬勃发展。8月19日苹果市值一度触及两万亿美元，成为美国第一家达到该市值的公司。规模不太大的的科技公司也受益颇丰，其中包括许多最近上市的公司。

注：

1. Splash out on 大笔花钱，在…上挥霍 = splurge on/squander.. to do..

2. 关于“市值”的表达：

market value/market capitalization/capitalization/stock value

The pandemic has highlighted and sped up a fundamental shift towards digital businesses, says Sarah Cannon of Index Ventures, a VC firm. The trend will last for decades, she predicts. Markets concur. The tech-heavy Renaissance IPO Index, which includes most listers of the past two years, is up by more than 40% since January (see chart 2). Zoom, whose videoconferencing app has become ubiquitous amid lockdowns, has seen its share price rise fourfold since floating in April 2019; it is worth $78bn. CrowdStrike, a cyber-security firm which listed in June last year, has quadrupled in value since March.

风险投资公司指数创投（Index Ventures）的莎拉·坎农（Sarah Cannon）表示，新冠疫情凸显并加速了商业模式朝着数字化的根本性转变。她预测，该趋势将持续数十年。市场表现体现了这一观点。以科技股为主的复兴IPO指数（该指数包括了过去两年上市的大多数公司）自1月份以来上涨超过40%（见表2）。自2019年4月上市以来，Zoom的股价已经上涨了四倍，这家在疫情封锁期间变得尽人皆知的视频会议软件公司目前的市值达到了780亿美元。CrowdStrike是一家去年6月上市的网络安全公司，自3月以来市值已翻了两番。

One thing the latest boom has done is highlight how unhappy startups and vc firms have grown with the current process of going public. It is cumbersome, with reams of paperwork, and can take more than a year. It is also pricey—and seen as too cosy for Wall Street. Investment banks’ fees alone eat up between 4% and 7% of a typical IPO’s proceeds, not counting lawyers and other advisers. Startups and vc firms point to big first-day pops as evidence that offerings are underpriced to give banks’ big investors a quick return. After all, those customers are regulars that must be kept sweet, whereas most startups only go public once.

近期的繁荣突显了初创公司和风投对现有上市流程的不满情绪日益增加。上市很繁琐，有大量的文书工作，可能需要花费一年多的时间。它的要价也很高，而且对华尔街来说这钱挣得太容易了。不包括律师和其他顾问的钱，单是投行的费用就占了一次典型IPO收益的4%到7%。初创公司和风投以首日的大涨为由，指出发行价格定的太低了，这会给发行银行的大投资者带来快速回报。毕竟，这些客户都是必须讨好的常客，而大多数初创公司却只是上市一次的过客。

注：

1. Reams of 大量的reams of paperwork =piles of paperwork

2. someone sweet 讨好某人

Disaffection with the IPO process, combined with a renewed desire to go public, has led some firms to consider alternatives. One is a “direct listing” of the sort Palantir is pursuing, and which Spotify, a music-streaming service, and Slack, a corporate-messaging firm, have used to good effect. Asana, which sells web-based project-management software, may be another unicorn to take the direct route. Direct listings use an electronic auction by the stock exchange to get startups a fairer price for their shares than investment bankers might. But they do not allow firms to raise new money. As a result, they are an option only for cash-rich firms.

对于IPO流程的不满再加上重燃对于上市的渴望，这让一些公司开始考虑代替方案。其中一个代替方案就是Palantir所追求的直接上市， 音乐流媒体服务平台Spotify和办公通讯软件Slack都依靠这种方法取得了良好效果。售卖基于网络的项目管理软件Asana，也许会成为另一个采用直接上市的独角兽企业。直接上市通过证劵交易所电子拍卖的方式使得初创公司的股价比投机银行家可能给出的价格更加合理。但这种方案不允许公司筹集新的资金。因此，这种方案只是适合资金充裕的公司。

Another route that has gained prominence is the special-purpose acquisition company. These SPACs, as they are known for short, are shell firms that go public promising to buy one or more private businesses with the proceeds from the listing. The private business then fills up the listed shell through a reverse merger. SPACs have a dodgy history; many have underperformed the broader stockmarket. But the latest lot promise to fix the flaws while preserving the benefits, which include direct negotiations over the purchase price that can make deals faster and more predictable. From January to early August 60 SPACs went public, raising $22.5bn. In July Bill Ackman, a hedge-fund boss, launched a $5bn-7bn vehicle, the biggest so far.

另一个逐渐进入人们视野的方案是特殊目的收购公司。这些简称为SPAC 的空壳公司公开募股并承诺用上市收益收购一个或多个私营企业。随后，私营企业通过反向并购来填补上市的空壳。SPAC的历史满是污点。很多SPAC公司的表现跑输大盘。但是最近很多打算上市的SPAC承诺在保留收益的同时修复这些缺陷，其中就包括对于购买价格进行直接谈判，这样可以让交易更快更具可预测性。从1月到8月上旬，60家SPAC公司上市， 筹集225亿美元。7月，对冲基金公司老板Bill Ackman推出了至今规模最大的、价值50至70亿美元的投资工具。

注：

1. Special purpose acquisition company：特殊目的收购公司是一种投资基金，允许公共股票市场投资者投资私募股权交易，特别是杠杆收购

2. Underperform the market 跑输大盘 outperform the market 跑赢大盘

It is unclear if Silicon Valley will embrace SPACs wholeheartedly. The biggest tech firm to have used one is Nikola, a secretive zero-emission-lorry startup which now boasts a market capitalisation of about $16bn. Many entrepreneurs and their backers would resist letting their firms be sucked up into a shell. But SPACs have a place in tech world. On August 18th Kevin Hartz, an early investor in Airbnb and Uber, launched one. Ribbit Capital, a vc firm, is reportedly planning another.

硅谷是否会欣然接受SPAC公司尚不清楚。使用过SPAC策略的最大的科技公司是Nikola，一家低调的零排放货车初创公司，市值大约为160亿美元。许多企业家和他们的支持者反对让他们的公司被空壳公司并购。但是 SPAC 已经在科技领域占有一席之地。8月18日，Airbnb 和Uber的早期投资者Kevin Hartz推出了一项SPAC计划。据报道，风险投资公司 Ribbit Capital正在筹划另一项SPAC计划。

The IPO-industrial complex is not averse to direct listings or SPACs, even if they are less lucrative than the old-school ways. Bankers predict a diverse future of increasingly tailor-made flotations that, say, target specific investors and predetermine how long staff must hold on to their shares. As Greg Chamberlain of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, sums up, “Not all technology companies are the same. They have different objectives.” So long as startups want to cash in, as all ultimately do, they will need Wall Street to shepherd them through.

IPO公司群体并不反对直接上市或者SPAC方案，即便它们不如传统方法收益丰厚。银行家们预计，量身定做的上市（针对不同的投资者和不同持股的时间）将会有着更多样化的未来。正如摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Chase）的格雷格·张伯伦（Greg Chamberlain）总结的那样：“并非所有的科技公司都是一样的，他们有着不同的目标。” 和所有人的最终期望的一样，只要初创公司想着去捞钱，那他们将肯定需要华尔街来引导他们前进。

注：

Floatation n. 上市flotation on the stock exchange/stock-market flotation

翻译组：

Yao，男，不想做翻译的翻译学硕士

Megan, 女，外企民工，好想一身都是月

Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

Angela, 女，Northwestern本科在读，double major 数学哲学

业

校对组：

Li Xia, 我视英语为初恋，英语瞧我像备胎
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Zoey，女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

朋友最近比较闲，问我有啥手游可以推荐的，花点钱没关系，关键得玩得刺激，有心跳的感觉。我想到了两款：同花顺和陌陌。

暂且放后者不表，我们先来聊聊同花顺。

我倒从来没炒过股，即便是在15年的6000多点，我最多也是给老婆些道听途说的建议买哪只股，其实那个时候买什么股都会涨，至于能不能赚钱就得看你什么时候离场了。自从同一年的暴跌之后老婆一怒之下就删掉了同花顺，至今还没重新安装上去。但这次似乎有点类似，我相信我的朋友能够在大跌之前离场，即便没走也大体上满足了他“玩得刺激、有心跳”的要求。

大一的时候我记得学校里最火爆的选修课就是讲股市的，全校最大的教室都被挤得水泄不通，由此可见向往暴富几乎是每个人的梦想。这门课也是我们全寝室兄弟们唯一不逃的课，可能是刚刚摆脱了高中的压抑生活，听老师胡吹猛吹便觉得厉害得不得了，五体投地的佩服，现在想来，年轻人的确是最好忽悠的一个群体了。印象里老师没讲过具体的技术，就聊了两件事：一是他的买卖收成，A股几乎就是他的提款机；第二件事就是到学期末课程快结束的时候推荐了两只股票（据说这是这门课的最终奥义了）。不记得后来这两只股票到底表现如何了，但是老师在期末推荐似乎也有一定的考量，毕竟过了一个假期后再会讲起推荐的股票到底赚了多少钱的同学总是少数，所以他的名气似乎一直被吹在空中，飘来荡去，成为了传奇。

其实那时候最好的投资还是买房子，如果我们寝室的兄弟们能缩衣节食，把生活费省下来交按揭，起码毕业后就翻了一倍不止，我记得那时候和平广场旁的小区刚刚建起来，大概四五千一方，不过也已经很贵了，多年后死党们聚会时都叹息不已，说可惜没这个眼光，否则砸锅卖铁也上了。

往往学股票的第一节的第一句话就告诉我们，股市是国家经济的晴雨表，我不知道现在的书上还敢不敢这么死皮赖脸得这么写上去了，但在我看来，似乎房价更加适合晴雨表这个象征意义，毕竟无论何时，我们的GDP都是一路向前，从来不掉价的。

群里的人偶尔会聊一两句有关股票的，一般都是在彰显自己看中的股票又涨了多少，一问几乎都只是看并没有买，或者只是模拟炒股。在谨小慎微的我的眼中，股票和彩票是没有区别的，都是以小博大的赌博罢了，当然我们家楼上也有天天做彩票K线图分析的大牛，数十年如一日，每天我们吃完饭去散步时总能遇见他胳肢窝上夹了份报纸，手上端了个茶杯，开始了一天的晚工，这不算是坏事，甚至是一件好事，也不吃喝嫖赌做坏事，安安单单、心甘情愿给人家送钱，而且还会一直开心地进行下去，一直做着他的zg梦，难道不好吗，我想没有人忍心叫醒他吧。

股票大概也是如此，小编据说前段时间赚了七八十万，我拍拍他的肩，喃喃了一句：这赚的钱是除掉了前些年亏的三百多万吗？他便默不作声转移话题了。(剧情需要，纯属虚构）

我想我可能有些刻薄了，应该鼓励他百尺竿头，更上一层楼。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发公众号译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

每日一歌一图 || Day434

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491508&idx=2&sn=32d8ea118775e4835c06ea5bde7c3441&chksm=fba04c13ccd7c5056e133a38fd6072e30b731d7d15b86fdf1a1b12b6d657b6819d31f75d502e#rd

世态人情，

可作书读，

可当戏看。

---End---

经济学人社论 || 我们身边的异形生物

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491492&idx=1&sn=725cd8f7ff184d6184a2764c61fa4c11&chksm=fba04c03ccd7c515404c5e0632340120c559cdb50d646b418d55d5f947abbbd147153f020be8#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The aliens among us

我们身边的异形生物 

英文部分选自经济学人20200822期Leaders版块

The aliens among us

我们身边的异形生物 

Viruses cause pandemics. They also shape the world

病毒引发流行病，同时也在塑造世界

Humans think of themselves as the world’s apex predators. Hence the silence of sabre-tooth tigers, the absence of moas from New Zealand and the long list of endangered megafauna. But SARS-COV-2  shows how people can also end up as prey. Viruses have caused a litany of modern pandemics, from covid-19, to HIV/AIDS to the influenza outbreak in 1918-20, which killed many more people than the first world war. Before that, the colonisation of the Americas by Europeans was abetted—and perhaps made possible—by epidemics of smallpox, measles and influenza brought unwittingly by the invaders, which annihilated many of the original inhabitants.

人类认为自己是世界上最顶端的掠食者。正是因为这种想法，剑齿虎销声匿迹，新西兰不再有摩亚鸟的踪影，一连串巨型动物出现在濒危榜单上。然而，新型冠状病毒（SARS-COV-2）表明人类最终也可能成为猎物。病毒引发了一系列现代流行病，从新冠肺炎（COVID-19）到艾滋病（HIV/AIDS），再到1918至1920年的流感（这场流感的死亡人数比一战还要多）。在此之前，欧洲侵略者无意中带来的天花、麻疹和流感使许多原住民丧命，这加速了欧洲人在美洲的殖民活动，并使殖民化成为可能。

The influence of viruses on life on Earth, though, goes far beyond the past and present tragedies of a single species, however pressing they seem. Though the study of viruses began as an investigation into what appeared to be a strange subset of pathogens, recent research puts them at the heart of an explanation of the strategies of genes, both selfish and otherwise.

然而，病毒对地球上生命的影响远远超出了从古至今某个单一物种的悲剧，不论这些悲剧看起来多么可怕。虽然病毒的研究始于对一种陌生的病原体亚群的调查，但不管是出于私利还是其他目的，最近的研究正将它们置于解释基因策略的核心位置。

Viruses are unimaginably varied and ubiquitous. And it is becoming clear just how much they have shaped the evolution of all organisms since the very beginnings of life. In this, they demonstrate the blind, pitiless power of natural selection at its most dramatic. And—for one group of brainy bipedal mammals that viruses helped create—they also present a heady mix of threat and opportunity.

病毒的种类多到难以想象，而且无处不在。此外，越发清楚的是，从生命诞生之初起，病毒在很大程度上影响了所有生物的进化。在这个过程中，它们用最引人注目的方式，展示了自然选择盲目无情的力量。病毒帮助创造了一群头脑发达的双足哺乳动物；对他们而言，病毒既带来了令人头疼的威胁，也带来了令人兴奋的机遇。

As our essay in this week’s issue explains, viruses are best thought of as packages of genetic material that exploit another organism’s metabolism in order to reproduce. They are parasites of the purest kind: they borrow everything from the host except the genetic code that makes them what they are. They strip down life itself to the bare essentials of information and its replication. If the abundance of viruses is anything to go by, that is a very successful strategy indeed.

正如我们在本周文章中所阐述的那样，最恰当的做法是将病毒看成是一包包的遗传物质，它们会利用另一种生物的新陈代谢来繁殖后代。病毒是最纯粹的寄生生物：除了造就自身的遗传密码，它们身上的一切都是从宿主那借来的。它们将生命本身剥离到最基本的要素：信息及其复制。如果将病毒的大量存在作为衡量标准，那么这确实是一个成功的策略。

The world is teeming with them. One analysis of seawater found 200,000 different viral species, and it was not setting out to be comprehensive. Other research suggests that a single litre of seawater may contain more than 100bn virus particles, and a kilo of dried soil ten times that number. Altogether, according to calculations on the back of a very big envelope, the world might contain 10³¹ of the things—that is one followed by 31 zeros, far outnumbering all other forms of life on the planet.

世界上充斥着病毒。在一项海水研究中，人们发现了200,000种不同的病毒。并且，这个结果尚不全面。其他研究则表明，一升海水中可能含有1000亿以上的病毒颗粒，而一公斤干燥土壤所含的病毒量是这个数目的十倍。总之，根据大量数据估算，全世界可能有10³¹个病毒——相当于1后面跟着31个0，远超地球上所有其他生命形式的数目。

注：A back-of-the-envelope calculation：using estimated or rounded numbers to develop a ballpark figure quickly. 粗略计算, 可作为对某个观点的支持或论据.

As far as anyone can tell, viruses—often of many different sorts—have adapted to attack every organism that exists. One reason they are powerhouses of evolution is that they oversee a relentless and prodigious slaughter, mutating as they do so. This is particularly clear in the oceans, where a fifth of single-celled plankton are killed by viruses every day. Ecologically, this promotes diversity by scything down abundant species, thus making room for rarer ones. The more common an organism, the more likely it is that a local plague of viruses specialised to attack it will develop, and so keep it in check.

据我们所知，种类繁多的病毒已经进化到能攻击所有现存有机体。它们之所以是进化的动力源，一部分是因为这些病毒目睹着无情而骇人的屠杀，并在此过程中进化。这在海洋中尤为明显，那里每天有五分之一的单细胞浮游生物死于病毒。从生态学上讲，可通过削减大规模物种的数量来促进多样性，从而为稀有物种腾出空间。一种有机体越普遍，就越可能产生专门攻击它的传染病，进而对该物种进行控制。

This propensity to cause plagues is also a powerful evolutionary stimulus for prey to develop defences, and these defences sometimes have wider consequences. For example, one explanation for why a cell may deliberately destroy itself is if its sacrifice lowers the viral load on closely related cells nearby. That way, its genes, copied in neighbouring cells, are more likely to survive. It so happens that such altruistic suicide is a prerequisite for cells to come together and form complex organisms, such as pea plants, mushrooms and human beings.

这种引发传染病的倾向也能有效刺激进化，促使猎物发展出防御机制，而这些防御机制有时会产生更广泛的影响。例如，为什么个体细胞会故意破坏自身。对此的一个解释是：该细胞牺牲自身来降低邻近密切细胞的病毒载量。这样，它复制在邻近细胞中的基因就更有可能存活。碰巧的是，这种利他性自杀是细胞聚集在一起形成复杂有机体的先决条件，如豌豆、蘑菇和人类。

The other reason viruses are engines of evolution is that they are transport mechanisms for genetic information. Some viral genomes end up integrated into the cells of their hosts, where they can be passed down to those organisms’ descendants. Between 8% and 25% of the human genome seems to have such viral origins. But the viruses themselves can in turn be hijacked, and their genes turned to new uses. For example, the ability of mammals to bear live young is a consequence of a viral gene being modified to permit the formation of placentas. And even human brains may owe their development in part to the movement within them of virus-like elements that create genetic differences between neurons within a single organism.

病毒成为进化动力源的另一个原因是，它们能传递遗传信息。一些病毒基因组最终整合到宿主细胞中，并遗传给这些生物的后代。8%到25%的人类基因组中似乎存在这样的病毒起源。不过，病毒本身也会反过来受到影响，它们的基因会因此产生新用途。例如，哺乳动物之所以能够生育幼仔，就是因为病毒基因受到修改后形成了胎盘。甚至人类大脑发育也可能部分归功于病毒样元素在大脑中的运动，这些病毒样元素在单个有机体内的神经元间产生了基因差异。

Evolution’s most enthralling insight is that breathtaking complexity can emerge from the sustained, implacable and nihilistic competition within and between organisms. The fact that the blind watchmaker has equipped you with the capacity to read and understand these words is in part a response to the actions of swarms of tiny, attacking replicators that have been going on, probably, since life first emerged on Earth around 4bn years ago. It is a startling example of that principle in action—and viruses have not finished yet.

生物体内及生物之间持续、执拗、虚无的竞争，催生出令人惊叹的复杂性，这是进化最迷人的地方。亲爱的读者，您之所以能看懂眼前的文字正是因为自然选择赋予了您阅读理解的能力。这一定程度上源于生物对大量而微小的攻击性复制基因所做出的反应。这些复制基因的攻击行为可能始于约40亿年前，也就是地球生命诞生之初。这一让人诧异的例子鲜活地证明了病毒对进化的影响，而且病毒不会止步于此。

注：The Blind Watchmaker: Why the Evidence of Evolution Reveals a Universe without Design is a 1986 book by Richard Dawkins, in which the author presents an explanation of, and argument for, the theory of evolution by means of natural selection. 《盲眼钟表匠：生命自然选择的秘密》是英国著名生物学家道金斯的经典之作。盲眼钟表匠象征了大自然环环相扣、一丝不苟的运行机制。

Humanity’s unique, virus-chiselled consciousness opens up new avenues to deal with the viral threat and to exploit it. This starts with the miracle of vaccination, which defends against a pathogenic attack before it is launched. Thanks to vaccines, smallpox is no more, having taken some 300m lives in the 20th century. Polio will one day surely follow. New research prompted by the covid-19 pandemic will enhance the power to examine the viral realm and the best responses to it that bodies can muster—taking the defence against viruses to a new level.

人类的认知是独一无二的，并且饱经病毒的雕琢。这让人类拥有新的方式去应对病毒威胁并让病毒为人所用。首先值得一提的是神奇的疫苗，在抗原发起攻击以前，疫苗帮助人类率先进行抵御。得益于疫苗，在20世纪夺去了3亿人的生命的天花传染病灭绝了。小儿麻痹症也将步天花的后尘。新冠疫情促进了新的研究，这将让人类进一步审视病毒，并刺激人体对病毒产生最佳反应——先发制“毒”的水平将到达新的高度。

Another avenue for progress lies in the tools for manipulating organisms that will come from an understanding of viruses and the defences against them. Early versions of genetic engineering relied on restriction enzymes—molecular scissors with which bacteria cut up viral genes and which biotechnologists employ to move genes around. The latest iteration of biotechnology, gene editing letter by letter, which is known as CRISPR, makes use of a more precise antiviral mechanism.

另一方面的进步有赖于生物操纵工具的发展，这将来自于对病毒及其防御机制的深入了解。早期的基因工程依赖于限制性内切酶——分子剪刀，细菌用它来切割病毒基因，生物技术专家通过它来移动基因。生物技术当前已经发展到可以对每个碱基进行编辑，也就是CRISPR技术，这运用了更为精准的抗病毒机制。

From the smallest beginnings

最微小的缘起

The natural world is not kind. A virus-free existence is an impossibility so deeply unachievable that its desirability is meaningless. In any case, the marvellous diversity of life rests on viruses which, as much as they are a source of death, are also a source of richness and of change. Marvellous, too, is the prospect of a world where viruses become a source of new understanding for humans—and kill fewer of them than ever before. 

自然界并非充满善意。创造一个没有病毒的世界是完全不可能实现的无谓之举。无论如何，生命令人叹为观止的多样性，有赖于病毒——病毒虽然会带来死亡，但也会让世界丰富多变。随着病毒不断加深人类的自我认知，病毒的致死率在不断下降，未来世界令人向往。

翻译组：

Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者

Desmond，男，即将读研，悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vincent 男，狱警，电子与法学双硕，爱好诗歌与哲学

众生之心，无往不着，又着故，障蔽其本有无着之心，犹如浮云，障翳虚空，空相不显，全成翳相。着即起苦，故曰生苦是其业用。

精彩的一文，有些段落读之有读《失控》一书的感觉。学界的旧观念（足够旧）是大自然和经济活动等都会收敛到平衡稳态，数学上建立某种稳态模型进行研究相对也更便利。新观点（其实也很旧）与之相对，流动才是常态。类似混沌非线性数学等研究都有助于改变旧有的观念，支持新观点。KK谈稳定的状态，说那是一种由持续的误差所保证的一种永久临跌的状态。所以说，人类世界可能在须臾之际，毫无征兆地陷入了一种由分布在低层，在极微处的“乌合之众”搅动而起的漩涡之中。然后，你再看，那些枚举比对人类进程史上各种类似事件的努力，像极了于新像旧影间执著于答案，已谈不上错对和效率了。

如果说自然是建立在恒久流变的基础之上，那么不稳定性可能就是引起自然生物类型丰富多彩的原因。不稳定的自然力量是多样性产生的根源。像文中所述，与病毒共存，也即我们的存在其实无时无刻不能摆脱对这些极微处扰动与变化的依赖。其实人类早已习惯了与不稳定打交道，并在此过程中濡养自我的心智，不断突破理论所限，愈接近真实规律则愈近乎神。或许可以这样说，未来或许可以围绕“无妄之变化”灵活地做出修正，灵活地“即时”制造和应对，而此灵活性越高，则越近乎神。就此建立一种由变化驱动的工作经济模式，也未尝可知。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

有钱的捧个钱场，没钱的点赞转发下，谢谢

每日一歌一图||Day433

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491492&idx=2&sn=45a70bca725ababc55515eed4db99591&chksm=fba04c03ccd7c5151da751947a24ba3bcf7b1efc0657596474c5dd253653afb9f0fef819eba9#rd

先努力让自己发光，

对的人才能迎着光而来。

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本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491478&idx=1&sn=bd16175c08731ff796ca0cc69dce4ac9&chksm=fba04c31ccd7c527d161027cc17e3dd3ca28664a0e8ac6dbabcad113664627080fa1e8021315#rd

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | The aliens among us

https://www.economist.com/node/21791016?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Partying like it’s 1999

https://www.economist.com/node/21791050?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Foam party
https://www.economist.com/node/21791010?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. 1843 | why-we-speak-starbucks

https://www.economist.com/1843/2020/07/22/why-we-speak-starbucks 

5. The Economist | Passion plays
https://www.economist.com/node/21791008?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

一周一篇bloomberg businessweek，欢迎关注

(以下为超链，点击进入）

彭博商业周刊 || 印度版“领英”

---End---

每日一歌一图||Day432

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491472&idx=1&sn=70d876918d688ebf02e1b7575934d2af&chksm=fba04c37ccd7c52181363ab4af4093a937a17127c3172e606d4a8e5a5e5da6564904a6989a85#rd

有时，

你无法很好的理解或学会某样事情，

只是因为你思考与接收问题的角度不同。

有钱的捧个钱场，没钱的点赞转发下，谢谢

---End-

经济学人逝者 || 钢琴家莱昂·弗莱舍

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491464&idx=1&sn=7eb0a7aed79811f17a27d0cd91b62641&chksm=fba04c2fccd7c53926912ff6ba3d79bd67ec4b52580f06df0d7ed7f2a21e886864dfcf39f911#rd

1

导读

休息一下......

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Right hand, left hand

右手，左手

英文部分选自经济学人20200815期逝者版块

Obituary: Leon Fleisher
莱昂·弗莱舍

Right hand, left hand

右手，左手

Leon Fleisher, pianist, died on August 2nd, aged 92

钢琴家莱昂·弗莱舍于2020年8月2日逝世，享年92岁。

A while after his argument with the patio table, when his sliced right thumb had had stitches and appeared to be healing, Leon Fleisher noticed a sluggishness in his right index finger. It was especially unresponsive when he tried to play trills, and that was no small matter. The ascending trills in the cadenza of the adagio of the Brahms first piano concerto, each joined by the next and then prolonged with a touch of the pedal—just a little, nothing showy—had a resonance like the shimmering of the universe.

莱昂·弗莱舍在庭院平台桌上弄伤了右手拇指，缝了针有所好转后，他注意到自己的右手食指有些迟钝，演奏颤音时尤其不受他掌控。这可不是件小事。在勃拉姆斯第一钢琴协奏曲柔板乐章的华彩乐段，颤音的音高层层递进，需要演奏者轻踩踏板延音——微延即可，不必太过花哨——其回声宛若宇宙间的微光。

注：

1.约翰内斯·勃拉姆斯（Johannes Brahms，1833-1897，德国浪漫主义作曲家及钢琴家）

2. https://www.jianshu.com/p/3768b86f75ae钢琴踏板介绍

He noticed, too, that the fourth and fifth fingers of his right hand were starting to curl under. This made the playing of triplets more or less impossible. Yet in the third movement of the Brahms they made the dancing culmination of the work, delighting him so much that they made the hairs stand up on the back of his neck.

他也注意到，自己右手的无名指和小拇指开始向掌心弯曲，让他几乎不可能再弹奏三连音了。然而，在演奏勃拉姆斯协奏曲第三乐章时，这两根手指跃动着，让整首乐曲达到高潮，他欣喜不已，后颈的汗毛直直竖立。

In short he could no longer play the most important piece in his life, the one that had first struck him like Thor’s thunder on his 12th birthday, had anchored his debut as “the pianistic find of the century” at Carnegie Hall in New York when he was 16, and had been his talisman and friend ever since. He, whose greatest terror was failure, could not, in fact, play anything.

简言之，他再也无法演奏这首他生命中最重要的作品了。12岁生日时他初次听到这首曲目，如雷神轰鸣一般令他震撼不已；16岁时他在纽约卡内基音乐厅首次公开演奏，并赢得了“世纪钢琴家”之称，就是弹奏的这首曲子，它也从此成为他的护身符和挚友。他向来最怕失败，现在却再也无法演奏任何曲目了。

It was 1964, and he was 36. In the spring he was due to tour the Soviet Union, having performed in America and Europe all through the 1950s. He had made definitive recordings of Liszt, Beethoven and Brahms with George Szell and the Cleveland Orchestra, with Leonard Bernstein and with Otto Klemperer. Such a career had possessed him from childhood, and his slightly crazy mother had also thought of nothing else, pushing him under the nose of every eminent musician she could find in San Francisco, Pierre Monteux, Alfred Hertz, even Sergei Rachmaninoff once, as the maestro came off stage. His path had long been set.

1964年，莱昂·弗莱舍36岁。20世纪50年代他一直在美国和欧洲演出，而那年春天他即将到苏联开展巡回演出。他与乔治·赛尔指挥的克利夫兰管弦乐团、以及伦纳德·伯恩斯坦和奥托·克伦佩勒一起录制了李斯特、贝多芬和勃拉姆斯的完整曲目。自儿时起，莱昂的生活里就全是钢琴，加之他那有些偏执的母亲一心望子成龙，为儿子跑遍旧金山寻找杰出音乐家拜师学艺。皮埃尔·蒙都、阿尔弗雷德·赫兹，甚至谢尔盖·拉赫玛尼诺夫从舞台退役以后，都曾为弗莱舍的音乐之路指点一二。他的人生路早就定了。

Yet he felt he was only beginning to understand what music needed. Ten years of training with Artur Schnabel had laid down firm principles of faithfulness to the score and integrity in the playing; watching Schnabel had taught him to treasure not only each note, but also the potency of silence. In his 20s he developed his own opinions, discovering French, Russian and 20th-century composers. But now he might, after all, be going nowhere.

然而那时的他觉得自己才刚刚开始了解音乐需要什么。随阿图尔·施纳贝尔学习的十年间，忠实于乐谱和演奏的完整成了他铭记于心的准则；施纳贝尔教导他不仅要珍惜每个音符，也要重视停顿。二十几岁时，他汲取了法国、俄罗斯以及二十世纪作曲家们的特点，形成了自己的见解。但即便如此，现在的他却找不到前进的方向。

注：

1.阿图尔·施纳贝尔（1882.4.17-1951.8.15），美籍奥地利钢琴家、作曲家和音乐教育家。莱昂九岁时，曾经宣布不收16岁以下学生的奥地利钢琴大师阿图尔·施纳贝尔破例收下了他。在之后十年里，弗莱舍随施纳贝尔在意大利科莫湖和纽约学习。

2. score：a written or printed copy of a piece of music, especially for a large group of performers, or the music itself 乐谱

For 30 years his right hand was little use to him. He tried lidocaine injections, massage, psychotherapy, acupuncture, Tiger Balm. Quacks and gurus were called in. He let Bernstein pour Scotch on it. The condition had a name, focal dystonia, and a cause, over-practising, but there was no cure. At times the fingers loosened, but nothing helped for long. And since music was his life, taking priority over everything including, to his regret, his first two wives and their children, he had to keep making it somehow. Pieces like the Brahms lay not only in his fingers but in his mind and heart, and his purpose, paraphrasing Beethoven’s inscription in the “Missa Solemnis”, was to communicate their power to other hearts. He just had to find alternative means of doing so.

三十年来，他的右手几乎用不了。他尝试过注射利多卡因、按摩、心理疗法、针灸、涂抹万金油，向各种江湖医生和医学专家寻医问药，也曾让伯恩斯坦把苏格兰威士忌倒在手上。这种病症名叫局部肌张力障碍，病因是肌肉使用过度，且无法治愈。有时手指会松弛，却并没有长久的解决方法。对他来说音乐即生命，他把音乐放在第一位，也遗憾地承认最早的两任妻子和孩子们都只在其次，因此他必须想方设法不断创作。像勃拉姆斯第一钢琴协奏曲这样的作品不仅流淌在他的指尖，也同样铭刻在他的脑海和心里。借用贝多芬在《D大调庄严弥撒》中的题词，他的目标是将作品的力量传达到他人的内心，只是需要用其他方式完成使命。

One was teaching. He had already been giving classes at the Peabody Conservatory in Baltimore, and now he did so, both there and at the Boston Symphony’s Tanglewood, as energetically as if his life depended on it, as it did. He also took up conducting, which—despite the oddity of standing in front of an orchestra—he greatly enjoyed. Both activities plunged him deeper into music, letting him see it through the eyes of other instrumentalists and, when he was teaching, pushing him to pin down the ephemeral beauty of notes with words alone. They went most of the way.

教学是一种方法。他早就在巴尔的摩皮博迪音乐学院授课，现在他除了在那儿，还在波士顿交响乐团的坦格尔伍德任教。他对此充满热忱，仿佛生命就寄托于此，事实也的确是这样。他也站上了指挥台，尽管一个人站在管弦乐队前有点奇怪，但他还是非常享受。这两种活动使他更沉迷于音乐。指挥时，他从其他演奏者的眼中看到了音乐；教书时，他仅从字里行间就感受到音符短暂的美。这样的生活大体上圆满。

Yet still he was not playing. Stubbornly he went on practising a bit, though it was hopeless and probably did damage, and his attempt at a public two-handed comeback, in 1982, was a failure. Stubbornly, too, he resisted for a long time the left-hand piano repertoire. Though it was wide, most of it was bad. The whole notion seemed gimmicky, as well as an admission that, from now on, a left-handed pianist was all he could be. Old prejudices would keep surfacing. The right hand was the singer, doing most of the important work and so wearing out faster. The left balanced it and did its share, but inevitably had second billing.

但他还是没有演奏。他继续固执地一点点练习，但成功的希望渺茫，甚至会加重手的损伤。1982年，他在公开复出表演中尝试双手弹奏，还是失败了。依旧固执的他在很长一段时间里抗拒左手弹奏的曲目，尽管这样的曲目很多，大多数却很糟糕。这个想法听上去像噱头，也相当于承认了从现在起，他只能成为一名左手钢琴家。旧时的偏见总会冒出水面：右手就如歌手，承担大部分重要的工作，所以损伤很快；左手则是帮助保持平衡，做好自己的事情，但终归只能排在第二位。

The disaster that had befallen him slowly changed that view. He found left-hand masterpieces, notably Ravel’s “Concerto for the Left Hand” and a transcription by Brahms of the Bach D minor Chaconne for solo violin, which became firm favourites. Friends and colleagues wrote new pieces for him. And he discovered that his left hand, even by itself, gave him more to say at the piano. Unlike the right, it was built for the instrument, since the high tune could still be tapped out by the thumb while the other fingers kept to the bass. Besides, melody was the least important element in a piece. Rhythm came first, the heartbeat, then harmony, and these were both the province of the left hand—though they might emerge, as in the opening of the Ravel, out of the murkiest depths.

莱昂·弗莱舍遭受的不幸反而慢慢改变了这种观点。他找到了适合左手弹奏的名曲，其中以拉威尔的《左手钢琴协奏曲》和勃拉姆斯改编的巴赫《D小调小提琴独奏夏康舞曲》最为著名，它们也成为他最喜欢的曲子。莱昂的朋友和同事也会为他创作左手弹奏的曲子，而他也发现，仅仅依靠左手弹琴，也会有更大的发挥空间。与右手不同，左手简直就是为钢琴而生，用大拇指弹高音旋律时其他手指仍然能够保持在低音上。更何况，对于一首曲子来说，旋律是最不重要的——首要的是节奏，这是重中之重，其次是和韵，而这些他的左手都能够做到，尽管在演奏拉威尔曲子的开头时，这些特质似乎只能从看不见的深处冒出来。

He performed that piece in concert, by his reckoning, more than 1,000 times, sliding across the stool through its leaps and glissandi, his right hand now a mere anchor to grip the frame. A later album cover of his works showed his left hand protectively covering the still-eager, straining right. But he had never quite given up hope that the same karma that had knocked him sideways might one day, equally mysteriously, heal that hand again.

莱昂估算，他弹奏拉威尔的曲子已超过一千次。演奏跳音和滑音时，他的身体也随着音乐在琴凳上滑动，而这时他的右手只是扶着琴架起固定作用而已。在他之后出的一张专辑封面中，他的左手保护性地盖住渴望演奏但仍然损伤的右手。不过他从来没有彻底放弃希望，当年突然转折的命运能够再次神秘地转向，让他的右手恢复如初。

By 1994 a combination of Botox and Rolfing, or deep massage, seemed to be helping. He was cautious. The pretence of his “comeback” more than a decade before still haunted him, when the cheering audience had no idea how he had struggled to control his right hand, and when he had had to rule out playing Beethoven’s fourth concerto in favour of something less exposed. This time, as it turned out, the improvement heralded a definite return to full playing. But on that first day of real hope he took no public chances. As he felt his hand properly opening again, he went instead to his study, where only the sun observed him through the windows. There, in the sunlight, with two hands, the piece growing note by note whole and complete, he played the Brahms.

到1994年，在肉毒杆菌和罗尔夫按摩法的双重作用下，莱昂的右手似乎有了好转。他还是很谨慎。十年前“复出”的假象仍让他心有余悸，当时全场的热情观众不知道他费了九牛二虎之力来控制他的右手，而他也不得不取消贝多芬的第四钢琴协奏曲，改为演奏难度低一些的曲目。这次右手的好转则预示着他可以重新进行双手演奏。但是希望变成现实的第一天，他却避开了公众的视线。感到自己的右手再一次慢慢张开时，他走进了自己的书房，那里只有阳光从窗户里射进来，照在他的脸上。他沐浴在阳光中，将双手放上琴键，接着一个又一个音符完整连贯地流淌出来，连成了一曲勃拉姆斯。

翻译组：

Yvonne，努力中的口译新人

Kemay，决心练好笔译的未来口译员

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Nikolai，热爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Lucia，英语专业学生，经济学人爱好者

喜爱阅读《经济学人》讣告板块的伙伴们或多或少感受到每期主人公所持有的品质，也一定发现他们都对自己的事业充满热情：帝王斑蝶的守护者霍梅罗·戈麦斯·冈萨雷斯、NASA数学家凯瑟琳·戈贝尔·约翰逊、“掷骰子的人”法拉费、音乐制作人哈尔·威尔纳等。他们自身所赋有的热情是战胜艰难险阻的利剑，从而在自己的领域内有所贡献。本期主人公莱昂·弗莱舍始终保持对音乐事业的热情，最终成为音乐大师。

因为有热情，所以能坚持。莱昂·弗莱舍从四岁开始学钢琴，八岁时已在旧金山社区剧场首次公开演奏，十六岁在卡内基音乐厅首秀，三十一岁获得著名的皮博迪音乐学院的教职，演奏技艺精湛。1965年，弗莱舍感到手指不适，被诊断患有腕管综合症、反复遭受压力的伤害，还表现出帕金森症的早期症状。然而，热爱音乐的他并没有因此放弃，用了几十年时间坚持接受治疗，从未放弃恢复右手功能的努力。同时，他练习用左手演奏，很快成为了用左手弹琴的大师。经过努力，他的右手逐渐恢复。1982年，他在波士顿交响乐团新落成的梅耶霍夫音乐厅举办音乐会，双手演奏，收获了阵阵掌声。

因为有热情，所以能精益求精。我国著名作曲家王立平从小喜爱曹雪芹的《红楼梦》，曾说他对这部小说的体会是“一朝入梦，终生不醒”。正是保持对这部小说和音乐的热情，1987版电视剧《红楼梦》音乐才会让观众身临其境。王立平前后用了四年半时间写成《红楼梦》的音乐，为此他无时无刻不在用心去体味剧中人物的性格和命运，他说：“写出好的音乐当然需要精准的技术，但最重要的还是用心感受，只有在感情的刻画上细致入微，才能通过音乐使人物的内心刻画入木三分”。当创作一年零九个月的《葬花吟》旋律正叩人物情感时，他顿时泪流满面。《红楼梦》音乐成为经典，离不开王立平先生对待谱曲精细入微的态度。

“登山则情满于山，观海则意溢于海”，对待自己的事情保持热情，有益于自己不断前进和取得进步。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

有钱的捧个钱场，没钱的点赞转发下，谢谢

每日一歌一图||Day431

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491464&idx=2&sn=5e0fb394cddf93b5d6d967c11d2a6926&chksm=fba04c2fccd7c5391ca965b407c3ea70117a87ea40ca00f2ddabde6232f2bf85dc35a1f2b71d#rd

真正的成熟是在合适的时机做该做的事，

顺其自然，

既不瞻前顾后，

也不左顾右盼，

不急躁，

不慌张。

有钱的捧个钱场，没钱的点赞转发下，谢谢

---End--

经济学人文艺 || 为后代捕捉疫情画面

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491447&idx=1&sn=c4a57107e36ad5b3925ff15885ee7d92&chksm=fba04cd0ccd7c5c6a1c1ab693397b4408fb731fccb26beadbb16c7cd62214795b8e1de988052#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

琚儿，英专，备考翻硕，外刊学习者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 Capturing the pandemic for posterity

为后代捕捉疫情画面

英文部分选自经济学人20200815期文艺版块

Decent Exposure

正当曝光

Capturing the pandemic for posterity

为后代捕捉疫情画面

Photographers shooting patients and carers have wrestled anew with ethical questions

医患摄影师重整旗鼓解决伦理问题

In mid-April of intensive-care beds at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York were occupied by patients with covid-19. Karen Cunningham was caring for them: intubating the worst-affected and responding to countless emergency messages on the hospital’s tannoy. She was also taking photographs, capturing images of medical staff who were, to her surprise, eager to be included. Ms Cunningham says she felt a moral obligation to relay her colleagues’ experiences to the public.

四月中旬，纽约莱诺克斯希尔医院（Lenox Hill Hospital）的重症监护室内的床位已被新冠患者占满。凯伦·坎宁安（Karen Cunningham）一边照顾着这些病人：为感染最严重的患者插管，一边应对医院广播中数不尽的紧急情况。与此同时，她还为医务人员拍照片。而让她感到意外的是，这些医务人员渴望入镜。坎宁安表示，自己有义务将同事的经历公之于众。

A professional photographer, ten years ago she also became a registered nurse. When a friend at the New Yorker had first suggested she take her camera to work, Ms Cunningham was sceptical. But at the time reporting from inside hospitals was rare, and amid the pandemic photography could be a powerful public-health tool. So she agreed to shoot on the wards, often laying down her camera to help turn patients onto their fronts to ease breathing difficulties.

坎宁安是位职业摄影师，十年前还成为了注册护士。起初，《纽约客》的朋友建议她上班时带上相机，她持怀疑态度。不过，当时从医院内部的报道十分罕见。但是在疫情期间，摄影却是一个很好展现公共健康的手段。因此，她听取了朋友的建议，开始在病房拍摄。但是拍摄时她常常要放下相机，帮助病人翻身俯卧，来缓解呼吸困难。

The results are an intimate depiction of the zone between life and death. In one image of an intubated patient (above), you can see the hair on the man’s chest and beard, his age signalled by the grey swirls among the black. His vulnerable skin contrasts with the armour-like layers of protective equipment worn by the four doctors surrounding him. Around the same time, Philip Montgomery, who previously chronicled America’s opioid epidemic, was touring New York’s public hospitals for the New York Times Magazine (NYTM). He also works in black and white, softening the garish hospital light to convey the motion and intensity of the carers. In Mr Montgomery’s pictures, their limbs blur as they rush through the wards.

这些照片真实地描述了重症监护室的生死交织。从一张插管病人的照片（见上图）中，可以看到病人胸毛和胡须，他的年龄从黑白相间的毛发中不难推断。在他周围，有四个医生都套着好几层盔甲般的防护服，和他（裸露）脆弱的皮肤形成了鲜明对比。与此同时，记录了美国阿片类药物滥用状况的《纽约时报》记者菲利普·蒙哥马利（Philip Montgomery）游走于纽约各个公立医院，寻找素材。他还以摄黑白照片的形式通过弱化医院刺眼的光线，来展示医护人员工作的工作强度和动态。在他拍摄的照片中，医护人员因为正在奔向病房而四肢被虚化了。

Photography, the critic Susan Sontag wrote, “has kept company with death ever since cameras were invented.” This year it has helped tell the story of covid-19. Photographers around the world have documented suffering and treatments that might otherwise have remained unseen. In their tragic subject-matter and informative role, images of the pandemic have resembled war photography—except that, instead of capturing far-away conflicts, photographers have turned their lenses on their own communities. As in a war, sharp ethical questions have arisen: about the camera’s intrusion on pain, and how the story of the disease is told.

评论家苏珊•松塔格（Susan Sontag）写道：“自照相机发明后，摄影就一直记录着死亡。”在今年讲述新冠疫情的故事当中，摄影也出了一份力。如果不是全世界的摄影师们记录了人们遭受的痛苦和治疗过程，人们恐怕很难能看到。谈及影像，疫情与战争类似，内容都有着悲剧色彩，并且意在传递信息。但是不同之处在于，疫情摄影师聚焦的是各自所在的社区，而非战争摄影师展现的远方的冲突。和战争摄影一样，疫情摄影也引发了尖锐的伦理问题，比如照片会让人感到痛苦，对疫情期间故事的叙述方式仍存争议。

The use of black and white is a key choice. Historically, says Jennifer Good, an expert on photojournalism at the London College of Communication, the palette “serves a particular function in the photography of war, because it negates the shocking redness of blood”. Some of the most famous images of the Vietnam war, for instance, were shot this way. But there are illustrious peacetime precedents, too. Ms Cunningham cites “Country Doctor”, W. Eugene Smith’s series for Life magazine in 1948—for which he followed a doctor in rural Colorado—as an inspiration. The subject, Ernest Ceriani, is depicted as a charismatic, slick-haired saviour (see picture below). Black and white, Ms Good says, can be “a distancing measure. It cuts out some of the more striking or shocking aesthetic elements of the picture, creating an elegance and a timelessness.”

选择黑白摄影很关键。伦敦传媒学院的摄影新闻学专家珍妮弗•古德（Jennifer Good）认为，从历史的角度看，“在战争摄影中，主色调设置成黑白色有特殊的作用，能抵消殷红鲜血给人带来的震撼。例如，一些最负盛名的越南战争记录影像就是黑白的。当然，一些摄于和平年代的著名影像也采用了类似的手法。坎宁安举了《乡村医生》的例子。《乡村医生》是W•欧仁•史密斯（Eugene Smith）在1948年为《生活》杂志拍摄的一个影像系列，记录的对象是科罗拉多农村一位名叫恩内斯特•切里亚尼（Ernest Ceriani）的医生。影像中把切利亚尼医生塑造成了一个魅力非凡、梳着油头的救世主（见下图）。古德女士称，黑白摄影“可以调节作品和观众之间的距离。它能够隐匿掉一些影像中冲击审美的元素，同时呈现优雅和永恒。”

Along with these associations, black and white can focus attention. Mr Montgomery used strobe lighting to direct the viewer’s gaze, calling attention to individual actions within the often frantic ward. In one image, the arm of a paramedic performing CPR is tensed, the force of motion clear, but the outcome unknown. When health-care staff look straight into the camera, viewers feel transported to the hospital—admiring the doctors and nurses, yet unsettled by their own voyeurism.

除却这些联系，使用黑白两色也可以抓住观众的注意力。蒙哥马利先生利用闪光灯，引导观众的视线，让观众在紧张忙乱的病房里注意到个人的动作。其中一张照片描绘了一位正在施用心肺复苏术的医护人员，其胳膊紧绷、正在用力，结果却未知。医护人员直面镜头的同时，观众感觉自己就身处医院——一边钦佩医生和护士，一边却为自己的窥视而心神不宁。

The home front

家园即前线

For both viewer and photographer, there is a fine line between compassionate observation and indecent intrusion. Hospital wards are full of sensitive information which must be repositioned or omitted while shooting. Patients and doctors must give their consent before their pictures are taken. Being a nurse, Ms Cunningham says, “gave me a certain moral and ethical freedom. I knew there was a line I would never cross.”

对观众和摄影师来说，满怀怜悯的旁观和突兀的闯入二者泾渭分明。病房内到处都是敏感信息，在拍摄时，这些敏感信息必须重新呈现或彻底清除。病人和医护人员必须首先同意接受拍摄，然后摄影师才能拍摄。坎宁安女士说身为护士给了我某种道德和伦理上的自由。我知道，有些禁区自己绝不会跨入”。

Her perspective inside the hospital was unique. But a series Mr Montgomery did at the Farenga Brothers Funeral Home in the Bronx involved even thornier ethical challenges. His images of the dead and their grieving relatives are meant to humanise the fact of mortality (see picture below). They also restore the individuality of some of the pandemic’s many victims.

坎宁安女士在医院内部的视角是独特的。然而，蒙哥马利先生在位于布朗克斯的法伦加兄弟殡仪馆（Farenga Brothers Funeral Home）拍摄的作品则引发了关于伦理问题的更大争议。他拍摄死者和他们悲伤的亲属本意在于让死亡人性化（见下图）。这些作品同时也重现了疫情的死难者个体的意义。

“The moral issues were huge,” acknowledges Kathy Ryan of the NYTM. “It’s not very often you see pictures dealing with the dead in our culture in this way.” In one image, editors blurred out a name-tag attached to a body bag. The series includes open coffins and refrigerated corpse trucks, but the most graphic scenes were omitted. The Purewals, the family at the centre of the shoot, were willing to be photographed as a way of honouring their late father. For some who were unable to give their loved ones proper funerals, Mr Montgomery’s pictures became a memorial.

《纽约时报》的摄影总监凯西•瑞恩（Kathy Ryan）承认：“这些作品涉及的道德问题非常重要。在我们的文化中，很少以这种方式拍摄死者。”在一张照片中，编辑对附在运尸袋上的姓名标签做了模糊处理。这一系列的照片中，有敞开的棺材，也有运送尸体的冷藏车，但是大多数现场照片在后期都被删除了。（例如），（一张照片中）位于照片中心的普利沃尔一家想要被镜头记录下来，以此来缅怀已故的父亲。对于那些无法为所爱之人举办像样葬礼的人来说，蒙哥马利的照片无疑能为他们留个纪念。

10.What, for the West, has been an unusually intimate encounter with death has affected views on how suffering elsewhere in the world is portrayed. In March, after seeing the devastation that covid-19 was causing in Lombardy, Nana Kofi Acquah, a Ghanaian photographer, posted an address to white journalists on Instagram. “Can you photograph Africa with the same level of respect and empathy?” he asked. Azu Nwagbogu, director of the African Artists’ Foundation, hopes the global nature of the pandemic will lead to a levelling in the way anguish in different places is covered. “I think there’s now a clear understanding of the dignity and respect for human life that needs to be given to all patients.”

对于西方人来讲，这次与死亡不同寻常的“亲密接触”，影响了他们的一些看法，即世界其他地区所经历的苦难是如何报道的。三月，在目睹新冠肺炎病毒在伦巴第造成的危害后，加纳摄影师Nana Kofi Acquah在Instagram上发表了一封写给白人记者的信，他发问道：“你们能怀有同样的尊重和同理心来拍摄非洲的状况吗？”非洲艺术家基金会负责人Azu Nwagbogu希望，在疫情全球蔓延的情况下能对不同地区的痛苦程度都加以报道。“我认为现在大家都很清楚，所有的病人都该享有尊严，得到尊重，这是生命本该享有的。”

11.Pictures are, after all, one of the ways posterity will remember the pandemic and the lives it disrupted. Arts institutions are already beginning to shape the way it will be seen—and they are not relying only on professionals. The National Portrait Gallery in London, for example, has received over 30,000 submissions for “Hold Still”, a community photography project launched in response to the virus. “I see people voicing gratitude and manifesting dreams about better times, lives and loves after lockdown,” Magda Keaney, a curator, says of the entries. Professionals still shape perceptions of crises, wrestling with their motives and responsibilities as they shoot. But they are no longer alone. 

毕竟，照片只是一种手段，让后代勿忘此次疫情，记得疫情如何扰乱人们生活。艺术机构已经开始塑造疫情的呈现方式，而且他们不仅仅只依靠专业人士。例如，伦敦国家肖像美术馆已经收到了3万多张照片，都是给为抗击疫情而发起的社区摄影项目“Hold Still”的投稿。美术馆馆长Magda Keaney就这些照片谈到了自己的看法：“我看到人们都在表达谢意，表达封闭后关于美好时光、美好生活以及爱的梦想。” 专业摄影师依旧塑造着人们对危机的认知和看法，按下快门的同时，他们也和自己内心的动机和肩负的责任进行着博弈。但是他们不再孤军奋战。

翻译组：

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿～

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者 

校对组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本期感想

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

看完这篇文章以后，我相信很多读者跟我有一样的感受：脑子里出现了《人间世》。文中的摄影师与《人间世》拍摄组所拍摄的内容虽然有很多不同，但也有很多内容是相通的。我想说，我们真的需要有更多的人来记录医院里的故事。

从医护角度来说，这样的拍摄让他们的努力和付出被更多的人看见。《人间世》第一季第一集讲的是瑞金医院心脏外科，其中的一个画面让我印象非常深刻：一名医生跪在病人的病床上做心肺复苏，其他医护人员拉着病床在跑，这名跪着的医生就跟病床一起飘移。这样的例子还有很多，急诊科主任毛恩强从早到晚都在抢救一位24岁的病患，到了晚上，还在打电话求血库多给几袋血。包括本文所说的医护人员飞奔着治疗新冠患者，这些都是他们的付出。他们没有固定上下班时间，往往是半夜被叫去做手术，做完手术睡2小时，接着是一天高强度的门诊。这些人夜以继日地守护着人们的生命，我们需要更多的曝光，让他们的汗水和牺牲被我们看见，被我们肯定。

从病患的角度来说，他们可以得到更多的理解和关爱。不光是文中提到的新冠患者，医院里所有的病患都值得更多人的关注。小到在输液厅输液的普通感冒患者，大到身患绝症，已经住进姑息治疗病区的濒死之人，他们都遭受着痛苦。不管患病之前他们姓甚名谁，此刻他们都是病患，是弱势群体，来自亲人以及陌生人的关爱是他们康复或减轻痛苦的一剂良药。尤其是精神疾病患者，他们往往遭受着外界的不理解，甚至是谩骂。对这些现象进行更多的曝光可以唤起我们的同理心，让人与人之间更好地共情，给予病患更多的爱和温暖。

从社会的角度来说，可以让更多的人愿意学医。新冠疫情过后，很多高三学生都因那几个月的经历而萌生了学医的想法，这是好事。我国的人均医生配给量是非常非常低的，所以医生的工作量非常大，再加上种种医患纠纷，晋升问题，使得愿意学医的人越来越少，变成一个恶性循环。这样的摄影作品或影视作品能让更多的人了解到医生这个职业的神圣性，或许可以激起更多血气方刚的少年少女立下悬壶济世的人生目标。我本人非常崇拜医生，常跟人说，我到了大学才知道好好读书的重要性，如果再来一次，我一定好好读书，考个浙大或复旦交大医学院，可惜太晚了。主观地认为，治病救人是这个世界上最伟大的事业，没有什么事情比挽救别人的生命，让别人能继续在这个世界上以一个人的形式存在更有价值了。说得俗一点，等棺材板盖上的那一刻，想想自己这一辈子救了多少人，眼睛都能安然地闭上了。期待更多心怀理想的少男少女能够因这些影视和摄影作品走上从医的道路，你们一定可以的。

    医院里的故事很精彩，也很复杂，我们期待更多的人可以来记录这些充满人情味的时刻，让医生得到肯定，病患得到关爱，更多的人走上从医的道路。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人财经 || 新兴国家迎头追赶发达国家进行时

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491434&idx=1&sn=05be7722d18505de443f360cdd36ed76&chksm=fba04ccdccd7c5dbef6204d2fc34ce53957b3fed62351563fd5f26ea4210e0755b93442316b4#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Economic convergence

经济趋同

英文部分选自经济学人20200815期财经版块

Economic convergence

经济趋同

Club class

新兴国家迎头追赶发达国家进行时

注：Club Class在飞机座位等级中为公务舱，介于头等舱和经济舱之间。此处指代那些介于发达国家和欠发达国家之间的新兴国家。

a class of air travel which is less luxurious than first class but more luxurious than economy class

A new study shows which emerging economies are catching up—and sheds light on some of the mysteries of economic growth

一项新研究表明了有哪些新兴经济体正在迎头赶上，并阐明了一些经济增长的奥秘

注：shed light on：阐明；使...清楚地显出

This awful year could, paradoxically, be a good one for what economists call convergence. This normally takes place when poor economies grow faster than rich ones, narrowing the income gap between them. This year will be a bit different. Few emerging markets will grow at all—perhaps China, Egypt and Vietnam. But because advanced economies will probably retreat even faster, the gap between them will narrow. In the pandemic, like a 400m race, the laurels go to whoever slows down least.

这糟糕的一年可能对经济学家提出的趋同假说来说反而是一个好年。趋同通常指的是穷国的经济增长速度快于富国的经济增速，从而缩小彼此之间的收入差距。今年却有所不同，甚至连新兴市场国家也几乎不会增长，或许只有中国、埃及和越南。但由于发达经济体经济衰退可能更快，因此两者之间的差距仍将缩小。疫情下的经济发展就如400米赛跑一样，胜利是属于后劲足的那些人。

The last time there was such a decisive growth gap between advanced and emerging economies was in 2013 (see chart 1). That was year of the “taper tantrum”, an emerging-market sell-off prompted by fears that America would slow its pace of monetary easing. It marked the end of a decade of heady emerging-market optimism best symbolised by the enthusiasm for the “BRICS”, an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs, which helped sell many investors on four of the most populous emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

上一次发达经济体和新兴经济体之间出现如此决定性的增长差距是在2013年（见图1）。那是“削减恐慌”的一年，担心美国会放慢货币宽松，新兴市场债券遭到抛售。它标志着新兴市场乐观主义十年的终结，这种乐观情绪最好的体现在了对“金砖四国”的热情。金砖四国这个“新词”由高盛首次提出，曾吸引了众多投资者来投资新兴市场的这四个人口大国——巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及中国。

注：

1. 2013年5月，美联储主席本·伯南克暗示美联储即将削减债券购买后，全球债券市场陷入恐慌，政府债券遭受重创，短短4个月债券收益率暴涨。市场曾用“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum) 形容美联储2013年暗示考虑放缓扩充资产负债表速度的举动。2013年 “削减恐慌”造成的结果是，2013年五月至九月初，10年期美国国债收益率急升140个基点。而世界其他地区随后追随美债收益率涨势，其中德国10年期债券收益率上涨80个基点，日本10年期债券收益率上升20个基点。

Source: http://forex.eastmoney.com/news/1764,20150515506964930.html

2. "Brics" 金砖国家，因其引用了 巴西（Brazil）、 俄罗斯 (Russia)、 印度 (India)、 中国（China）、和 南非（South Africa）的英文首字母。由于该词与英文单词的砖（Brick）类似，因此被称为“金砖国家”，也特指世界新兴市场；

The idea that “backward” economies could grow faster than mature ones was first spelled out by economic historians like Alexander Gerschenkron in the 1950s and Moses Abramovitz in the 1970s. It rests on the assumption that imitation is easier than innovation and returns to investment are high where capital is scarce. The evidence for faster growth was weak between the 1970s and the early 1990s, but has become stronger since, as Dev Patel of Harvard University, Justin Sandefur of the Centre for Global Development and Arvind Subramanian of Ashoka University have pointed out most forcefully.

“落后”经济体或比成熟经济体增长更快这一假说最初由一些经济历史学家提出，如亚历山大·格申克龙（Alexander Gerschenkron）以及摩西·阿布拉莫维茨（Moses Abramovitz）分别在上世纪50年代和70年代提出过。该想法基于如下假设：在资本稀缺的地方，模仿比创新更容易且投资回报更高。在70年代至90年代初期，表明落后经济体增长较快的依据不足，但自从哈佛大学的戴夫·帕特尔（Dev Patel）、全球发展中心的贾斯汀·桑德富（Justin Sandefur）和阿育王大学的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚（Arvind Subramanian）坚定地为这一观点站台，该假说变得更具说服力。

注：阿育王大学（英语：Ashoka University）是一家私立博雅教育大学，位于印度哈里亚纳邦索尼帕特。

戴夫·帕特尔（Dev Patel）哈佛大学经济学系博士候选人。

阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚（Arvind Subramanian）：印度经济学家，印度政府前首席经济顾问（2014-2018任期），哈佛大学肯尼迪学院客座教授。

In making their projections for the brics, Goldman drew on a cautious version of the thesis, called “conditional” convergence. Simply put, this says that poor countries will grow faster than rich ones, other things equal. Those other things, for Goldman, included a country’s level of education, its openness to trade, its internet penetration and ten other characteristics. Academics have ranged even more widely. According to Steven Durlauf of the University of Chicago, Paul Johnson of Vassar College and Jonathan Temple, a freelance economist, researchers have identified 145 plausible factors that must be accounted for. The list includes everything from inflation and foreign direct investment to religion, frosty weather and newspaper readership.

在对金砖四国进行预测时，高盛采用了该理论的谨慎版本，即“条件”趋同。简而言之，即在其他同等条件下，贫穷的国家会比富裕的国家增长更快。高盛认为，以上所说的同等条件包括了一个国家的教育水平、贸易开放水平、互联网渗透度以及其他十项指标。专业学者研究纳入的指标更多。根据芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的史蒂文·杜尔拉夫(Steven Durlauf)、瓦萨学院(Vassar College)的保罗·约翰逊(Paul Johnson)和自由经济学家乔纳森·坦普尔(Jonathan Temple)的说法，研究人员确定了145个必须考虑的合理因素。这里面包括了通货膨胀、海外直接投资、宗教、寒冷天气、读报人群等因素。

Goldman assumed that emerging economies would catch up with a productivity frontier exemplified by America. But many economies seem to converge not towards a global leader but with their neighbours or peers. Indeed, some of the best examples of convergence come from within countries or economic blocs. Poor Japanese prefectures have tended to catch up with richer ones, as have Canadian provinces, Indian states and the regions of Europe.

高盛认为这些新兴经济体会追赶上以美国为代表的生产力前沿。但许多经济体似乎并没有向全球领袖靠拢，而是向邻国或同类经济体趋同。的确，最好的经济趋同案例都是来自国家群或者经济集团。在日本，贫穷的县倾向于追赶上富裕的县，这和加拿大各省、印度各省、欧洲各个地区无不相同。

If the forces of convergence operate within these blocs, it is reasonable to wonder if other such groupings exist. Are there any other convergence “clubs”, rich or poor, the members of which are bunching up?

如果趋同确实存在于经济集团内，那么就有理由提出是否存在其他类似集群。是否还有其他国家聚集而成的“趋同俱乐部”，不论贫富？

注：bunch up: 聚成一团，挤在一起

eg: People were bunched up at all the exits. 

 人们都被聚集在各个出口处。

In a new book, “Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”, the World Bank uses an algorithm to sort through many combinations of countries, looking for groups that seem to be converging with each other. Based on the productivity performance of 97 economies since 2000, the bank identifies five clubs. The three gloomiest groups comprise fairly poor countries. A fourth contains some big ones of unfulfilled potential, such as Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa.

在新书《全球生产力：趋势，驱动因素和政策》中，世界银行运用了一种算法对所有国家进行各种组合归类，以找出那些似乎正在相互融合趋同的群体。根据2000年以来97个经济体的生产力表现，世界银行确定了5个国家群组。前景最黯淡的三个国家群组由相当贫困的国家组成。第四个群组包含了 一些蕴含未展潜力的大国，如阿根廷、巴西、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和南非。

注：

gloomy：If a situation is gloomy, it does not give you much hope of success or happiness. 前景暗淡的

The most successful club spans all today’s advanced economies as well as 16 emerging markets, such as China, India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (see chart 2). Poorer members tend to grow faster than the rich ones, at a pace that would halve the productivity gap between them every 48 years.

最成功的国家群组涵盖了当今所有发达经济体以及16个新兴市场国家，例如中国、印度、马来西亚、泰国和越南（见图2）。相对贫困的国家增长速度往往快于那些富裕国家，该增速下，两经济体之间生产力差距每48年缩小一半。

注：

span：If something spans a range of things, all those things are included in it. 包括

What explains the centripetal forces at work? It is not proximity: the countries range from Myanmar and Canada to Finland and Chile. Many members have impressive levels of investment and trade, but so do others in the clubs below them. Higher levels of education and government effectiveness make a bigger difference, at least at the start of their catch-up phases.

国家群组内成员为什么存在向心力？成员国相互之间距离其实并不近：如缅甸和加拿大，芬兰和智利。许多成员国家拥有极高的投资和贸易水平，但排位稍逊的其他成员国家也不差。至少在追赶阶段开始时，较高的教育水平和政府效能发挥了更大的影响。

注：

1. centripetal：acting, moving, or tending to move towards a centre 向心的 

2. proximity：a place or person is nearness to that place or person. 接近 [正式]

Most members of the top club also do well on a measure of economic “complexity” developed by Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard and César Hidalgo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Countries score highly if their exports are both eclectic and exclusive, spanning a diverse range of products that few other countries also export. But there are exceptions. Chile is in the top club, but appears economically uncomplicated. That may be because its exports (copper, salmon, fruit) look simple but are produced, differentiated and packaged in sophisticated ways. Its round, red cherries, for example, are carefully selected for export to China as symbols of luxury.

基于哈佛大学的里卡多·豪斯曼（Ricardo Hausmann）和麻省理工学院的塞萨尔·伊达尔戈（César Hidalgo）提出的经济“复杂性”指数，多数顶级国家群成员也都表现得出类拔萃。如果国家的出口管制既广泛又排外，涵盖了其他国家基本不出口的多样产品，那么这些国家的复杂性得分就会很高。当然也有例外，智利是顶级国家群的成员之一，但其经济复杂性指数得分却并不突出。这可能是因为其出口产品（铜、鲑鱼、水果）虽看似普通，但生产、分化和包装方式却较为复杂。例如，智利的圆形红樱桃便是经过一番精挑细选，作为奢侈品出口到中国（车厘子自由）。

The authors of the World Bank’s book worry that the covid-19 pandemic will inhibit investment, shorten supply chains and breed insularity, all of which could hamper convergence. But they also note some potential silver linings. Crises, for instance, can encourage structural reforms; the lack of upkeep of outdated capital during dark times can hasten its replacement with newer technologies in the recovery.

而令世界银行这本书的作者们忧心忡忡的是，新冠疫情将会抑制投资，缩短供应链，滋生孤立主义，这些因素都有可能阻碍经济趋同。但是他们也注意到了一线希望，例如，危机时期可促进结构性改革——在危机时刻对过时资本的维护不足，在复苏过程中能通过新技术促进过时资本的加速更迭。

注：

1. inhibit: （v）阻碍、抑制；使拘束，使尴尬。The managing director's presence inhibited them from arising their problems

2. insularity: （n）孤立；偏狭保守。Crynicism and insularity had long been major barriers to my lasting peace

Pioneers of convergence theory understood that a country cannot fully exploit industrial advances if it clings to customary patterns of production and consumption: what Thorstein Veblen, a sociologist, called “the received scheme of use and wont”. For this reason Abramovitz believed that war and political convulsion can serve as a “ground-clearing experience opening the way for new men, new organisations and new modes of operation”. Optimists, who pray that convergence will outlast this convulsive year, must hope that the received scheme of use and wont is one of the pandemic’s many casualties.

趋同理论的先驱者们认为，一个国家如果始终保持着一贯的生产和消费模式，那么便不能充分利用工业进步——社会学家托尔斯坦·凡勃伦（Thorstein Veblen）将其称为“公认使用和习惯方案”。基于该理论，阿布拉莫维茨认为战争和政治动荡可以“扫清障碍，为新人、新组织以及新的运营模式别开蹊径”。乐观主义者希望经济趋同能在动荡的今年继续延续下去，但必须同时祈祷这个众所周知的“公认使用习惯和方案”能随疫情被一同摒弃。

注：

clings: （v）紧紧的抱住，抱紧；抓住（职位，财产）不放；（衣服）粘着，紧附。

convulsion: （n）痉挛；骚乱，动荡

翻译组：

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Jerry，男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Zihan, 对冲基金，大数据工程师

早在疫情来临之前，新兴市场的发展速度就已经下降了。经济学家们预测，新兴市场的平均GDP增长率会从过去20年的5%下降到未来20年的3.5%。虽然这样的增长率还是高于发达国家的。但是整体的收入增长率会出现下降。我国在未来几年已经开始筹备了2%的GDP增长。这样的情景下，投资新兴市场到底有多大胜率？另一方面，哪些国家又会成为未来20年的新秀？而哪些又会逐渐衰败？又有什么比诸国的兴衰更令人激动的事情呢？

“Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”一书中，世界银行根据诸多指标把世界各国分成了五个类别。而在这里最优秀的类别中除了众多发达多国家，还有很多我们熟悉的快速发展的新兴国：中国，印度，越南，马来西亚，泰国。为什么这些新兴国在过去20年的发展速度猛追发达国呢？本文的总结是：教育和政府的执行效率。

我们来看下图。下图的标题为：Higher Income Countries had higer covid death rates。的确，作为最早进入疫情紧急状态的中国，我们在疫情中的死亡率要远远低于其他发达国家。众多高收入国的高死亡率意味着发达国家所受到的疫情打击会远高于低收入国。但这并不意味着发展中和低收入国家没有收到打击。

以土耳其为例，土耳其的旅游业占据其GDP的12%。而菲律宾各国和泰国的GDP也都在20%以上。疫情对旅游业的打击是极为严重的，那么这些依靠旅游业的各国也必将面临极大的压力。本文提出了一个值得我们注意的一点：虽然，疫情一定影响对资产的流通和产业供应链，进而让发展中国家处于苦难的局面。但是这样的情景下，各国也不得不去解决这些困境。这对各个产业面的架构重组提供了极好的机会。

我记得就在几周前，经济学人也有发表一篇航空公司将面临一个极好的改革的机会。大量的航空公司因为疫情都宣布了破产。那么剩下的大多数也都在破产的边缘。这些航空企业如果想要熬过疫情，必然会对其商业模式和服务框架进行重组和优化。这种大规模的优化在正常时期应该是很难甚至无法实施的。这就像是，在备考期间整理笔记是很难的，因为每天都很忙碌。但是假期来了，却有足够的时间去整理笔记，而很多好点子也都是在这段闲暇中想出来的一样。虽然疫情固然给世界带来了巨大的不幸。但我们尝试去看看他光明的地方的话，我们也会发现每次大动荡的后面都会带来新的机遇和可能。而谁能成为未来的赢家呢？

也许，在这次疫情中退步最少的，就是进步最大的。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人商业 || 消逝的办公室恋情

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491418&idx=1&sn=f45003b635e554fffa47a52734828ea2&chksm=fba04cfdccd7c5eb4049eb10991a9d42347a8c17486d92170e3a95ffb683a839943a0909f498#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Labour’s lost love

消逝的办公室恋情

英文部分选自经济学人20200815期Business版块

Labour’s lost love

消逝的办公室恋情

注：Love’s labour’s lost是莎士比亚的戏剧作品《爱的徒劳》。巴托比调整了词序变成Labour’s lost love《消失的办公室恋情》

The decline of the office romance

办公室罗曼蒂克的消亡

Their eyes met across the office photocopier. At long last, each of them had found someone who could push their buttons. Eventually, they settled down and decided to reproduce. Read more in “Fifty Sheets of Grey Paper”, out soon in paperback.

越过复印机，两人四目相对——终于，他们找到了那个能按动彼此灵魂按键的人。于是，他们安定下来，并决定（结婚）生子。更多内容，敬请阅读办公室版《五十度灰》，平装版即将面世。

Romance is a long-established side-effect of office life. After all, people may spend almost half their waking hours at work, and their colleagues will frequently have something in common with them, even if it is only complaining about the manager. Some relationships are inevitably bound to result.

办公室恋情是办公生活中长期存在的副产品。毕竟人们每天醒着的几乎一半时间都在办公室工作，他们和同事时常处于同频道之中，甚至可能是一起吐槽他们的经理。有些“办公室地下恋情”自然而然就会开花结果。

But the lockdown has made the forming of new romances much more difficult. Although online dating has thrived in the pandemic, the number of people who have met their soulmate via a work Zoom meeting must be vanishingly small. It is hard to flirt while your facial expressions are being observed by a dozen colleagues. And how private is company videoconferencing software’s private-chat function, really?

但是新冠疫情下的封锁使得孕育新的办公室恋情相比以往更加困难。尽管网上约会在此期间已经得到了蓬勃发展，但是通过Zoom会议认识自己灵魂伴侣的人却少之又少。因为在线会议时在同事的众目睽睽下隐藏自己坠入爱河的面部表情而不被发现，臣妾做不到呀/几乎是一项不可能任务！公司视频会议软件中的私人聊天功能又有多少私密可言呢，鬼才知道！

Even before the pandemic, however, office romances were in decline. In 1995, 19% of (heterosexual) people met their partner at work, according to a study by Stanford University. By 2017 this had fallen to 11%. It will be even lower now. As white-collar employees toil more hours at home and fewer at the office—which seems likely even after the virus recedes—opportunities for workplace romantic connections will dwindle.

然而，即使是在新冠疫情之前，办公室恋情也已处于颓势。斯坦福大学的一项研究显示，1995年，19%的异性恋者是在工作中结识另一半的。到2017年，这一比例降至11%。现在只会更低。因为白领们有越来越多时间居家办公，而在办公室的时间则越来越少——这一趋势可能一直延续到疫情结束之后——所以办公室恋情的机会也会减少。

One reason for the decline is that companies have realised that work relationships give rise to all kinds of ethical questions. The idea of a boss marrying his secretary (or a doctor dating a nurse) is one of the oldest clichés around. Sadly, the trope is so well established that secretaries and nurses have spent decades fending off the unwanted attentions of their superiors. As the #MeToo movement has demonstrated, some men use their positions of power to harass women who work for them.

办公室恋情之所以会减少，原因之一是公司已经意识到这层关系会引发各种伦理问题。最老套的剧情莫过于老板和秘书结婚（或是医生与护士约会）。可悲的是，这一比方太过深入人心，以至于几十年来秘书和护士都一直在防范上级不必要的关注。正如#MeToo运动宣称的那样，一些男性会利用职权之便骚扰女下属。

Consensual relationships can cause problems as well. A relationship with a subordinate makes it hard for a manager to be objective about their performance. Colleagues may understandably suspect the manager of favouritism. Things may be as bad if the romance breaks down. Hurt feelings may make it hard for the ex-partners to work together and will also make it awkward for everyone else in the office.

即使是两厢情愿，也可能引发问题。比方说，与下属的罗曼蒂克关系会使管理者难以客观评价属下的绩效表现。在此背景下，同事们怀疑经理徇私也可以理解。如果关系破裂，情况同样糟糕。受伤的情感会使人难以和前任再在一起工作，也会让办公室其他人感到尴尬。

The result of this is that many companies have policies that discourage or forbid managers from flings with someone who works for them. Office relationships were blamed for the departure of Steve Easterbrook from his role as chief executive of McDonald’s last year; the fast-food company launched a lawsuit against Mr Easterbrook this week.

因此，许多公司制定了政策，不鼓励或禁止上下级之间眉来眼去。去年，将办公室恋情推上风口浪尖的是麦当劳前首席执行官史蒂夫·伊斯特布鲁克（Steve Easterbrook），丑闻发生后，他被公司解雇；本周，麦当劳将对他提起了诉讼。

注：史蒂夫·伊斯特布鲁克（Steve Easterbrook）：麦当劳前首席执行官，因违反公司规定与员工发生不正当性关系，并在调查时隐瞒证据，被麦当劳遣散，并对其提起诉讼。https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mcdonalds-sues-ex-ceo-steve-easterbrook-sexual-relationships-employees/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12378013/fired-british-boss-of-mcdonalds-steve-easterbrook-sexted-a-worker-and-gave-shares-to-another-after-bedding-her/

Some companies ban all office romances outright. Others issue guidelines such as the stipulation that employees should not allow a relationship with a colleague to influence their behaviour at work, and that they should disclose any relationship that might give rise to a conflict of interest. These rules seem perfectly sensible, although they do involve a sacrifice of privacy.

有些企业完全禁止办公室恋情。有些则颁布规章制度，例如规定与同事的（恋爱）关系不得影响他们的工作行为，以及雇员应披露可能造成利益冲突的（恋爱）关系。这些制度虽然会牺牲隐私，但貌似完全合理。

Some of these problems can be avoided if the relationship is at one remove: if people meet their partners through work, rather than at the same office. Clearly there could still be problems if, for example, a purchasing manager was dating the salesperson at a supplier. But in most circumstances these romances avoid the potential problems of favouritism or abuse of power. Bartleby was fortunate enough to meet his spouse through his job 24 years ago (a period that proves Mrs Bartleby’s infinite reserves of patience).

如果恋爱双方保持了一定距离，有些问题也可以避免：即恋爱双方不在同一间办公室，而是通过工作见面。当然了，如果一个采购经理在供应商处与其销售人员约会，那还是会有问题。但绝大多数情况下，这些恋爱关系杜绝了潜在的徇私或滥用职权等问题。巴托比先生就非常有幸地通过工作与伴侣相识于24年之前（巴托比太太竟能有如此耐心忍受丈夫这么多年）。

For that reason, this columnist can perhaps be forgiven for hoping that the office romance does not disappear completely. Millions of happy couples have probably met by their desks or the coffee machine. Perhaps couples will get a buzz from defying company rules. But they may have to be subtle about it: “Speak low if you speak love,” as William Shakespeare wrote in “Much Ado About Nothing”. That said, romance novels may need a bit of updating to cope with the post-pandemic era.

因此，本专栏作家巴托比先生希望办公室恋情不要完全消失的想法也就能被原谅了。办公桌、咖啡机可能撮合了几百万对幸福男女。违反公司规定或许能让他们小兴奋一下，但还是得小心为妙，正如莎士比亚在《无事生非》中所写，“情话还得悄悄说”。说到这里，今天的爱情小说也该换换水，体现一下后疫情时期的主题了。

Their eyes met across the bottle of hand sanitiser. “Would you like to break the social-distance rules and join my bubble?” he whispered. “Sorry, I can’t hear you through the mask,” she replied. He searched for inspiration. How could he convey his feelings? As creative director of Tomkins & Tomkins, surely there was an answer? A brainwave came: he raised his hands. Her eyes widened in understanding. “First word,” she said. “Sounds like ...”

两人视线在一瓶洗手液上交汇。“你可愿意打破社交隔离，与我合二为一呢？”他悄悄问道。“抱歉，你戴着口罩我听不清，”她回答。他苦苦找寻灵感。到底如何传情达意？身为Tomkins & Tomkins创意指导，就真能有灵感吗？突然，他灵机一动，抬起双手。她睁大眼睛，心领神会。“第一个字，”她说,“听起来像……”。

翻译组：

Clark，一笔，汽车公关行业

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

Rena，坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

校对组：

Forest，女，自由职业，爱树的人

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

人们谈起办公室恋情来总有些放不开手脚，甚至于巴托比先生讲起话来都开始显得扭捏了。大概都觉得这不是件值得大书特书的事，虽然不少孤男寡女从中受益，因为有些工作着实没办法接触更多的异性，也没多余的时间，所以近水楼台委实是无奈之举。当然我们谈的都是虾兵蟹将的生活百态，小编让我谈谈国庆哥哥和渝姐姐的办公室里的爱恨情仇，我想了想，他们哪有办公室恋情可言，只是分赃不均的老板，恰巧在同一个办公楼、又恰巧是不同的性别罢了，和几乎所有的创业老板分道扬镳的例子没有任何区别。

我们谈论的是真正的爱情，是那些可能会被女方家的彩礼吓得半死的男方，辛辛苦苦买了房子却纠结写两个人的名字还是只写一个人的，甚至老是疑神疑鬼对方是不是高端女猎人的傻乎乎的笨男人，这才是属于我们的生活，这才是办公室恋情的本来面目。

即便是上下级关系，在同一个公司里恋爱的人们几乎都是处于同一个社会阶层的人，虽然也有傻如我同事一般去追求老板女儿的，到头来自然是触了霉头碰了钉，也许是风花雪月的爱情小说看多了，直把小说当了办公桌。处于同一个层次的人最大的好处就在于生活的半径几乎一致，不可能去想一些超过自己能力范围的事情，譬如大平层呀，天天换个Birkin包呀之类的，所以自然双方就会心想一块劲使一处了。要么等某一方高飞枝头后有可能会有些变化，包个二NAI二爷啥的，但这已经不在我们讨论的办公室恋情范畴里了，可能找1818比较好。

在学校的时候，或许我们背景各异，但是面对的是共同的东西，居住的是共同的环境，所以比较容易处在一块。但进入社会后，方知彼此差距之大是几辈子都难以企及的，自然会减少甚至不再联系，这也就是爱情夭折的一个缘由。办公室恋情的好处在于自动地帮你过滤掉了那些不在同一层楼的异性，而且朝夕相处，除非是刻意隐藏自己，否则还是容易看出对方是否是自己的菜，当然貌美的总是会有更多的选择，这也没办法，人总是生而不平的，我也没法抱怨父母没给我一个考上MIT的脑子。

所以，我们只能在已经摆上桌的菜里挑自己喜欢吃的，不是吗？（点外卖的话老爸老妈可又要不高兴了）

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人社论 || 小额金融

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491406&idx=1&sn=205f4fd9d12df911f9deea655ced028f&chksm=fba04ce9ccd7c5ff9aff1678564801e4942c16bf8cb56cf85debae737e33a7d261f994182ce2#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Credit where it’s due

信贷的最佳去处

英文部分选自经济学人20200815期Leaders版块

Microfinance

小额金融

Credit where it’s due

信贷的最佳去处

注：credit where it is due原意为实至名归，此处意思是贷款的最佳去处

Lending to the poor will not end poverty, but it is more essential than ever

向穷人提供借款不会消除贫困，但它比以往任何时候都更加关键

注：
ESSENTIAL OR VITAL? 用 ESSENTIAL 还是 VITAL？These words have the same meaning but there can be a slight difference in tone. Essentialis used to state a fact or opinion with authority. Vitalis often used when there is some anxiety felt about sth, or a need to persuade sb that a fact or opinion is true, right or important. Vitalis less often used in negative statements. 以上两词意义相同，但语气稍有区别。essential 用以说明事实或表明权威意见，vital 常用于对某事感到急迫或需要使人信服某一事实或意见确实、正确或重要等情况。vital 较少用于否定句：◆ It was vital to show that he was not afraid. 最重要的是要表现出他毫无畏惧。◆ Money is not vital to happiness.

Across the developing world vast numbers of people have lost their jobs or seen their incomes fall. Many are being forced to sell their meagre belongings to pay for food. Ideally state handouts would plug the gap in their finances, but in many countries the public coffers are empty. Often people are too poor a credit risk, or live too remotely, to get help from banks. Microcredit, a form of lending tailored to them, should be part of the answer, but the industry is flunking one of its biggest tests.

在发展中国家，大量的人已经失业或收入下降。许多人被迫卖掉他们微薄低廉的物品来购买食物。理想情况下，政府的救济金可以填补他们的财务缺口，但在许多国家，国库已空。人们常常因信用风险太差，或生活在偏远的地方而无法从银行获得帮助。 作为为这些人量身定制的一种贷款形式，小额信贷本应是一种解决方案，但是这个行业正面临最大考验。

In the 1990s and 2000s microcredit was one of the next big things in development finance. In 2006 Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank and its founder, Muhammad Yunus, won the Nobel peace prize. The industry’s champions developed a grand ambition. Letting the poor borrow and invest, they argued, would unleash their inner entrepreneur and allow them to earn their way out of poverty. A new model emerged. Instead of demanding collateral, which few poor people have, loan officers judged creditworthiness by assessing expected income. Lending often went to groups of people, who knew and monitored each other better than banks could. That also saved officers time and hassle, creating efficiencies that enabled clients to borrow small sums at affordable rates.

在20世纪90年代和21世纪初，小额信贷成为未来金融发展的重要领域之一。2006年，孟加拉乡村银行及其创始人穆罕默德·尤努斯获得诺贝尔和平奖。该行业的领军人物有着远大的抱负。他们认为，让穷人借贷和投资，将释放他们内在的企业家精神，并让他们摆脱贫困。继而，一种新的模式出现了。信贷人员通过评估预期收入来判断信用度，而不是要求穷人提供很少拥有的担保品。贷款常常流向这样一群人：他们比银行更了解彼此，更好地互相监督。这也节省了信贷人员的时间和麻烦，提高了效率，使客户能够以负担得起的利率借入小额贷款。

Today the lending portfolios of microfinance institutions (MFIS) are worth a combined $124bn. But the industry is in trouble. Covid-19 is straining its finances. Repayments, usually done in cash and in person, have plummeted, yet the banks and investors which provide the MFIS with funds still expect money. A crunch looms. More than two-thirds of MFIS have cut lending, often by at least half. Nearly one-third do not have enough cash to meet outflows this quarter. If only this were the industry’s only problem. Compounding it is a set of deeper, longer-standing issues that have begun to undermine its reputation for efficiency and probity .

如今，小额金融机构（MFIS）的贷款组合价值总计1240亿美元，但该行业却陷入困境。2019新冠肺炎造成其财务紧张。通常以本人亲自完成的现金还款大幅下降，但向小额信贷机构提供资金的银行和投资者仍在期望获利。危机迫在眉睫。超过三分之二的小额金融机构削减了至少一半的放贷。近三分之一没有足够的现金来满足本季度的资金外流。如果这是行业唯一的问题就好了。一系列深层次、长期存在的问题使其雪上加霜，这些问题已经开始损害其效率和廉洁的声誉。

As the industry has grown in size it has also grown in complexity. From insurance to leasing, a lengthening suite of services has turned microcredit into microfinance, adding new players to the fray. A mishmash of regulators have struggled to keep up. Patchy regulation and lots of loopholes have become a serious problem as the industry’s high repayment rates—well above 90% on average—have lured for-profit lenders, some of which demand land titles as collateral, charge extortionate rates and use heavy-handed tactics to collect payments. From Congo to Kosovo, scandals have surfaced.

随着行业规模的扩大，其复杂性也随之增加。从保险到租赁，不断扩展的服务组合已将小额信贷转变为小额金融，吸引了新竞争者的加入。混乱的监管机构难以跟上（行业发展的脚步）。零散的监管和大量漏洞已成为一个严重的问题，因为该行业的高还款率（平均高于90％）吸引了以营利为目的的放款人，其中一些人要求以土地所有权作为抵押，收取高额利息，并采取粗暴手段收取款项。从刚果到科索沃，丑闻层出不穷。

An expanding body of academic research suggests that microfinance consistently falls short of its boosters’ admittedly high expectations. Among the economists who have plucked at its laurels are last year’s Nobel prize winners, Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo. They and others have found that its effects on investment, revenue and consumption are small and uncertain. The result is waning interest in the industry from blue-chip investors and donors.

越来越多学术研究表明，小额金融始终未能达到其最初设计者支持者提出的高度期望，去年获得诺贝尔奖的经济学家，阿比吉特·班纳吉（Abhijit Banerjee）和埃丝特·杜夫洛（Esther Duflo）在小额金融研究上最为权威。他们和其他学者发现，小额金融对投资、收入和消费的影响很小且不确定。结果是，蓝筹投资者和捐助者对该行业的兴趣正逐渐减弱。

 The timing is terrible. People use MFIS for a variety of needs, from buying goods to helping relatives. What matters is less what the funds are spent on than households’ and firms’ ability to smooth their income and outgoings over time, which is particularly important when bad news, or a bad season—or a pandemic—strikes. Without microcredit, covid-19 means more people in desperate situations will turn to loan sharks and pawnbrokers, at the risk of falling into debt spirals.

时机太糟糕了。人们使用小额金融机构的贷款来满足从购买商品到帮助亲戚的各种需求。重要的不是借贷资金被用于哪种需求，而是家庭和公司平衡长期收支的能力。特别是在坏消息，亦或是歉收、流行病等来袭时，这样的能力显得尤为重要。没有小额信贷，新冠疫情意味着更多处于绝境的人将转向高利贷者和典当行，并可能因此陷入债务漩涡。

What to do? In the short term, viable MFIS need support. Donors and investors should consider moratoriums, reschedulings or injecting capital. Nearly half of MFIS say they have not had any discussion with funders yet. Supervisors may need to loosen reserve requirements to provide breathing space. Forbearance with struggling clients should be tolerated, as long as MFIS sketch out a path back to normal for when the pandemic is over.

要做些什么呢？短期内，能够独立生存的小微信贷机构需要得到帮助。捐助者和投资者应当考虑暂停偿付、延期偿还或者注入资金。将近一半的小微信贷机构称他们还未与投资者有过任何的讨论。监管者可能需要放松存款准备金的要求以提供喘息的机会。只要小微信贷机构拟定好计划能够在疫情结束时回归正轨，那么对苦苦挣扎的客户予以宽容是应该被接受的。

注：

The reserve requirement is the total amount of funds a bank must have on hand each night. 存款准备金

In the longer term governments need to crack down on predatory lending and make rules more consistent and uniform. That will prevent vulnerable people from being exploited and also help restore confidence in legitimate microlending firms. Calibrating regulation is not easy, but some obvious measures include better information-sharing, so MFIS know what they are doing and people can shop around; an obligation to properly assess borrowers’ ability to repay; transparency on rates and fees; protection against harassment; and credible grievance mechanisms, advertised in information campaigns. For governments battling deep recessions microfinance may seem a sideshow. But all MFIS together have 140m customers, so nursing the industry back to health will give a big bang for the buck.

长期来看，政府需要严厉打击掠夺性贷款，并且使规章制度更加稳定和统一。这样一来将能够防止弱势人群被剥削并且也有助于恢复人们对合法小微信贷公司的信心。矫正监管并不容易，但是可采取一些显而易见的措施，包括：更好的共享信息，让小微信贷机构知道他们在做什么，并且人们也可以货比三家；履行适当评估借款人偿还能力的义务；利率和收费的透明化；防止骚扰；以及宣传活动中提及的可信的申诉机制。对于正在与严重衰退作斗争的政府来说，小微信贷可能只是一个次要问题。但是所有的小微信贷机构加起来有1.4亿客户，因此让这个行业恢复健康发展将会带来巨大的收益。

注：A grievance mechanism is a formal, legal or non-legal  complaint process that can be used by individuals, workers, communities and/or civil society organisations that are being negatively affected by certain business activities and operations.申诉机制

Bang for your buck: better value for the money you spend or the effort you put in to sth钱花的合算；所作的努力值得

翻译组：

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

Melody，女，咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工，经济学人粉丝儿

Mai, 男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Wesley，男，英语老师，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Carole，女，经济硕士，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

这几天幼小衔接班结束了，空余时间便多起来了，于是陪着女儿听故事，恰好听到了《威尼斯商人》。女儿并没有为其中的忠贞爱情所感动，只是提了两个问题：为什么欠钱的人可以通过这种坏办法来不还钱、为什么不是欠钱的人自己取肉给威尼斯商人。

我对这两个看似淳朴，却暗藏玄机的问题一筹莫展了。虽然我很早以前也思考过这两个问题，但是似乎我所得到的正确答案并不是那么显而易见并且理所当然的正确，其中包含的却是目前人们深恶痛绝的种族歧视等等之类的不能言语之论。

第二个问题似乎走的是程序流程正确与否的这条路，所以这不是一个很能够展开讨论的问题，而仅仅需要去考究当时程序上的要求而已，所以我就此略过，我想仔细谈谈第一个问题，至少不是从讽刺犹太人贪婪的角度。

从钱成为货币的那一刻起，我想就从来没有过每一个人都拥有足够、合适的数量（若当真如此了，钱似乎也就没有了存在的意义），所以我武断地认为那个时候就有了借钱和还钱的故事了。倘若每个借钱的人都是和我一样善良，按时按额归还（京东白条和花呗可以替我作证）的话，自然接下来的故事就变得乏味和平淡了，也就没有了吸引力。但总有人会有些小聪明，总有人会遇到突发意外，所以讨债这个职业我相信也是很快就诞生了。

千百年来，虽然变化万千，但是借钱还钱中的把戏就如同我们繁衍后代一般，虽花样繁多，但本质却无法改变。去年我在的公司大老板就因为七个瓶盖八个瓶的这种古老骗钱法术失灵而将两个上市公司的股份被银行冻结，至今仍未解冻。但公司与个人还是有本质区别的，我想这就是那些构思出公司这种形式最大的流氓行为，公司借钱不还最多就是老板赖倒在地上，假装口吐白沫，然后拍拍屁股告诉债主，我们破产了，自己家里的钱丝毫不受影响，所以我周围那些老板开公司的主要目的就是将银行贷款如何转变成个人口袋里的钱，原因就在于此。

但现在柬埔寨的情况显然属于后者，个人的借贷，这就比较残酷了，我们当然也有类似的情况：房贷。我们无法模仿老板口吐莲花，装疯卖傻，因为一旦你这么做了，银行二话不说直接将房子回收（尽管它一百个不愿意这么做），我们只能天桥下相聚了。除非你光脚不怕穿鞋，但是似乎这种人也很难贷到比较高额的款。

所以贷给个人的款基本都是可靠的（尤其是国内的善良百姓），除非发生了变故，意料之外的变故，否则人吃人的金融游戏（只是每个月喝你点血，不会让你死去，毕竟连畜生都懂得不能杀鸡取卵）还是会快快乐乐地循环下去。但倘若真的发生这种意外了，我想债主及时的止损还是必然的，没人会管借钱的人接下去的生活如何继续，将损失最小化是债主的唯一目标。

然后开始新的一轮。有人问到什么是个头呢？其实很简单，因为最终的可抵押的实物只能是土地和黄金（不要再被钻石骗了，醒醒吧，女人！！钻石不值钱的！！），黄金不会变，所以当土地的主人改变时，那一切债务都将烟消云散，重头来过，这个可怕且美好的场景，我已经描述过一番了。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491402&idx=1&sn=a9729750f63bd867de702eaa43858796&chksm=fba04cedccd7c5fb9bd1f37bdff22adeb6d7ecf1add5d4141ada4428dfbc61bd1bf30c1497f4#rd

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | Credit where it’s due

https://www.economist.com/node/21790869?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Labour’s lost love

https://www.economist.com/node/21790863?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Club class

https://www.economist.com/node/21790882?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | Decent exposure

https://www.economist.com/node/21790832?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | Right hand, left hand

https://www.economist.com/node/21790828?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

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翻译课筹备组招小伙伴啦

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491387&idx=1&sn=9e2f2e2a2d5c1086e02cc89b3975625d&chksm=fba04c9cccd7c58a1a898f3bffce7e7e6a8d9998c1136051c29cbc046cd2772268b9ad4d6b32#rd

上周发了翻译课筹备组找小伙伴，但是很多小伙伴加小编说要加翻译组，小编在这里再次说一下翻译课筹备组≠翻译组，翻译组是现在每天翻译文章的小伙伴，而翻译课筹备组是后期要开课的，是为了开翻译课而准备的，筹备组成员除了从翻译组小伙伴中挑选外，也对所有符合要求的粉丝开放，最基本的条件是：

CATTI一笔

满足条件的小伙伴可以联系小编（VX:396196827）加入翻译课筹备组，进群后，我们还将进行统一的翻译测试进行筛选，通过后成立翻译课正式小组，最后再次感谢大家。

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经济学人逝者 || 奥利维娅·德·哈维兰爵士

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491381&idx=1&sn=799e4b2223670d448167da72c654dbb0&chksm=fba04c92ccd7c5848c57aa8a8587da1a8041e352f8bfa08872c5535e45a33ff9b98296e3bbb3#rd

1

导读

《乱世佳人》女星奥利维娅·德·哈维兰

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The ingénue who roared

咆哮的天真少女

英文部分选自经济学人20200808期逝者版块

Obituary: Olivia de Havilland

逝者：奥利维娅·德·哈维兰

The ingénue who roared

咆哮的天真少女

Dame Olivia de Havilland, the last great star of Hollywood’s Golden Age, died on July 26th, aged 104

奥利维娅·德·哈维兰爵士，好莱坞黄金时代的最后一位巨星，于2020年7月26日去世，享年104岁

On the first day of rehearsals for “Captain Blood”, in 1935, Olivia de Havilland and Errol Flynn returned their lunch trays together to the canteen. Already she had thought “Oh!” at the sight of him; but, being sensible, she had eaten alone at a distant table. Now they sat together on the stage ramp, by the huge doors that opened onto the street, and his first words were: “What do you want out of all this?” She answered, in her clear young English tones: “I would like respect for difficult work well done.”

1935年，《铁血船长》排练第一天，奥利维娅·德·哈维兰和埃罗尔·弗林一起将他们的午餐盘归还到食堂。她一看到他就心里惊叹“啊”；但她还是理智地选择了独自坐在远处的餐桌旁吃饭。现在他们一起坐在朝街的大门旁的舞台坡道上，弗林的第一句话是：“你想从这一切当中得到什么呢？”她用清脆充满朝气的英国腔回答道：“我想演好有挑战性的角色，并因此得到尊重。”

That sounded more modest than his aim, which was simply “success”. But it meant hard fights on several fronts. When she reviewed her proudest achievements later, they were not just her major role in “Gone With the Wind” in 1939 and her two Academy Awards for Best Actress, in 1947 for “To Each His Own” and in 1950 for “The Heiress”—still less her 49 feature films altogether. She had also broken the hold of Hollywood studios over their actors, leaving them freer to choose the roles they were best suited for.

这个答案听起来比弗林的目标要低调得多，而弗林的目标纯粹就是获得“成功”。但她的目标却意味着需要在方方面面进行艰苦的奋斗。后来当她回顾自己最自豪的成就时，这些成就可不只是1939年在《乱世佳人》中出演主要角色，以及凭借1947年《风流种子》和1950年的《女继承人》两次斩获奥斯卡“最佳女主角奖”，更不用说她出演过的49 部剧情长片。不仅如此，她还打破了好莱坞制片厂对于演员的控制，从而使演员们能够更自由地选择最适合他们的角色。

To some extent no one was free at Warner Bros in the Golden Age. She worked six-day weeks there, dressed, up on her lines and on the set by 6.30am, shooting until 6pm and until midnight on Saturdays. She once got a cameraman to blacken her eyes to show Jack Warner she was tired. That was hardly the worst of it, though. Because she was small and flawlessly beautiful she was inevitably an ingénue: the lovely and mindless girl, her pleading eyes harking back to silent-cinema days, who would lead the hero windingly but inevitably to the marriage bed. Warner Bros had one great dramatic actress, Bette Davis, and two ingénues, one blonde and one brunette. She was the brunette. And with a burst of menthol in her eyes, she could weep real tears.

在好莱坞的黄金年代，从某种程度上说，华纳公司里没有谁是自由的。她每周工作六天，早上6；30就得换好衣服，背好台词到达现场，然后一直拍摄到下午6；00。在周六则一直拍摄到午夜。她有一次让摄影师把她的眼睛拍摄得黑一些，好让杰克·华纳知道她累了。不过，这还不是最糟糕的。因为个头小又美得不可方物，她不可避免地总是扮演天真无邪的少女：可爱但却没头脑的姑娘，满是恳求的眼神让人回想起默片时代，令剧中主角即便历经曲折也必然与她步入婚姻殿堂。华纳兄弟公司旗下有一名伟大的演技派女演员贝蒂·戴维斯和两名花瓶式“天真少女”，一个金发，一个深色头发。哈维兰就是深色头发的那个。只要眼睛里薄荷脑的冲劲一上来，她就能真得哭出来。

From the start, this rankled with her. She wanted to play women who were complex and thoughtful, when the best she could hope for was spirited, wimpled Maid Marian in “The Adventures of Robin Hood” (1938). In “Gone With the Wind” (made for mgm, not Warner, after she pleaded with Warner’s wife) she went for Melanie Hamilton, dignified, loving and forgiving, rather than the flighty Scarlett O’Hara. There were deeply feminine qualities in her she wanted to explore. She did so largely by herself, after a good read of Stanislavsky’s “An Actor’s Work”; in costume as Melanie, she would keep going back to commune with her in the dressing-room mirror. One day, still struggling, she asked Jimmy Cagney for advice. “Whatever you say, mean it,” he snapped. She made sure she did.

这个定位从一开始就让她很懊恼。她想演复杂、有思想的女人，那时她能拿到的最好角色就是在《罗宾汉历险记》（1938年）中演那个戴着头巾充满活力的女仆玛丽安。在《乱世佳人》中，（这部电影不是华纳而是米高梅出品的，她向华纳夫人苦苦争取才有了出演机会），她本是奔着演庄重、体贴、宽容的梅兰妮·汉密尔顿去的，而不是轻浮的斯佳丽·奥哈拉。她想探究梅兰妮这个角色骨子里的的女性气质。她做到了，主要是靠仔细研读斯坦尼斯拉夫斯基的《演员的自我修养》之后的自我领悟。她会扮成梅兰妮，在更衣室对着镜子让自己回到影片中的年代，与梅兰妮进行交流。有一天，她自己始终（对角色）拿捏不定，便向吉米·卡格尼征求意见。他严厉地说：“不管你说什么，要带着真情实感。”她努力做到了这一点。

And she always had. To act had been her dream from the age of five, when she found her actress-mother’s make-up box and smeared her cheeks with rouge that would not come off. It grew steadily through the childhood elocution lessons, the Shakespeare-reading sessions and a local production of “Alice in Wonderland” in which she seemed to move in an enchanted world. (Her younger sister Joan, treading annoyingly on her heels, wanted just the same career and, as Joan Fontaine, got much of it, until their mutual snubbing became legendary.) Yet even after her big break, playing Hermia in Max Reinhardt’s “A Midsummer-Night’s Dream” at the Hollywood Bowl in 1934, to sign at once with a studio was terrifying. She was 18, and felt she was jumping off an Olympic diving board with no idea how to dive. That was before she found that pretty little women were hardly required to act.

她一直都说到做到。从五岁开始，做演员就是她的梦想。那时，她找到她做演员的妈妈的化妆盒，拿口红给自己涂了个大花脸，洗也洗不掉。这个梦想随着小时候的演讲课、莎士比亚阅读课和参演当地制作的《爱丽丝梦游仙境》而不断生长。而参演《爱丽丝梦游仙境》使她仿佛进入了一个迷人的世界。（而让她烦恼的是妹妹琼也亦步亦趋，以琼·芳登的名字进入了演艺圈，并且也很成功，一直到她们的嫌隙尽人皆知）。1934年在好莱坞的露天剧场，奥利维娅扮演《仲夏夜之梦》中的赫米亚，大获成功，是她事业的重大突破，但即便在这之后，马上与制片厂签约的做法却让她望而生畏。她那时18岁，觉得自己像是正从奥运会的跳水板上跳下，却完全不会跳水。那时，她还没发现，漂亮娇小的女人几乎不需要会演戏。

注：她在参加大学校内戏剧演出，即出演莎剧《仲夏夜之梦》时被导演Max Reinhardt看中，不但让她出演自己的戏，更把她推荐给了华纳兄弟。华纳兄弟娱乐公司的负责人看了她的试镜后，便和她签了一份长达七年的合约。从此，她作为该公司的主要演员踏入好莱坞影视圈。（来源：百度百科）

Almost as fast as Warner Bros kept offering her brainless work, she declined it. After all, her favourite pursuit was to do cryptic crosswords. But the studio had a hold on her. Each time she turned down a role her contract was suspended, and the days not worked were added as time owed. Infuriated, she took the studio to court in 1943 and won, as she was pretty sure she would. Henceforth, under the De Havilland Law of 1945, actors were employed for proper calendar terms and the studio stranglehold was ended.

华纳兄弟不断让她出演无脑的的角色，她都会一一拒绝。毕竟，她最大的爱好是（动脑筋）解开隐晦的字谜。但制片厂却牵制着她。她每拒绝一个角色，合同就会暂停，没有工作的日子会被加到欠制片厂的工作时间中。这激怒了她，1943年，她把制片厂告上法庭，并打赢了这场官司，她也确信自己能胜诉。此后，1945年的《德·哈维兰法》规定演员的雇用期按照日历时间计算，制片厂对演员的压制也随之结束了。

It was no coincidence that she did her best work after that. In “To Each His Own”, she played a mother trying over decades to retrieve the child she had given up, carefully changing her perfume to fix the character as she aged. In “The Heiress” she portrayed a woman who was shy and plain; scorned by her father and betrayed by her fortune-seeking lover, she took a calm, cold revenge on both of them. For “The Snake Pit” (1948) she became a wife sent by her husband to a mental asylum, striving to keep her dignity while assailed by inner demons. To research the role she consulted psychiatrists and visited a mental hospital to watch electric-shock treatment, with the horror of the body rising and forcibly held down. She knew just a little of constraint like that.

自此之后，她呈现了她最好的作品，而这并非巧合。在剧情片《风流种子》中，她饰演了一位母亲，历尽数十年想要夺回当年自己放弃的孩子。随着角色中母亲年龄的增长，她精心地地选用不同香水来贴合人物特征。在《女继承人》中，她饰演一位本来性格腼腆、相貌平平的富家小姐；因为父亲的蔑视和贪图钱财的情人的背叛，她冷静地对父亲和情人实施了无情的报复。在《毒龙潭》（1948）中，她饰演一位被被丈夫送到精神病院的妻子，一面饱受内心恶魔的折磨，一面努力维护自己的尊严。为了深入了解角色，她咨询了数位精神病医生，并到一家精神病院了解电击疗法，恐惧地看着病人身体弹起而后被强制压下。对于这种压制，她正好也有些体会。

She was alert to other curbs on her freedom, too. She avoided marrying her leading men, preferring to carry on discreetly with several, including Errol (unconsummated, she insisted, despite eight films together), Jimmy Stewart and John Huston. Instead she married writers, promptly divorcing them when mutual interest faded. In the mid-1940s, though ardently liberal, she resigned from the liberal Citizens’ Committee to protest against the leadership’s pro-Soviet line, and even informed the fbi secretly about them. No other voice or group should dare to speak for her, or use her.

她很警觉，也不愿意她的自由受到任何其它的限制。她不和她戏中的男主角结婚，宁愿小心翼翼地与其中几位交往，包括埃罗尔·弗林（虽然一起拍了八部电影，她坚称二人没有发生亲密关系）、吉米·斯图尔特以及约翰·休斯顿。她嫁的都是作家，且都在相互没有吸引力后就立即离婚。20世纪40年代中叶，尽管热衷于自由派，她还是从自由派公民委员会辞职来抗议领导层的亲苏路线，甚至向FBI告密。没有人或团体敢为她发声，或雇用她。

Her strongest bid for independence came in mid-life, when she left Hollywood behind. In 1955, having married a Frenchman, she went to live in Paris for the next 60 years. In her 19th-century mansion she would float about magnificently in Chinese silk and pearls, with a glass of Veuve Clicquot in her hand. Her screen work became rarer; she did not keep company with actors and directors, but with Voltaire and Monet. Real as she had made her characters, what she most loved now was actual authenticity: houses and churches made of stone, not canvas, and real princes to meet. On a visit to Beverly Hills in 1957 she bumped into Errol again, at a charity ball, and was surprised by the deadness of his eyes.

人到中年，她开始了对独立最强有力的争取，也在那时，她离开了好莱坞。1955年，她嫁给一位法国人，随后移居巴黎并在那生活了60年。她手持凯歌香槟，穿戴着中国的丝绸和珍珠饰品，华丽地在她那幢建于19世纪的豪宅中漫步。她的银幕作品减少了，陪在她身边的不再是演员和导演，而是伏尔泰和莫奈。她塑造角色时追求演绎真实，此刻最热爱的也是生活的真实：参观用石头砌成而非描绘在帆布上的房子和教堂，以及亲自面见真正的王子。1957年，她去贝佛利山时，在一场慈善舞会上碰巧遇见了埃罗尔，他眼神空洞，令她十分意外。

California stayed in her mind, however. She mused to Vanity Fair that if she could not come back to Earth as herself, a role she found perfectly satisfactory, she would like to be a redwood tree. Strong, deep-rooted, benevolent, tall— and reaching in unimpeded splendour for the sun, the moon and the stars.

但加利福尼亚一直在她的脑海中。在《名利场》的采访中，她若有所思地说：如果不能回到世间做真实的自己（而这个角色她完全满意），那她愿意成为一棵红杉树。树大根深、仁慈悲悯、参天耸立——一抬头便能领略太阳、月亮与星辰的无限壮丽。

翻译组：

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Yvonne，努力中的口译新人

Sheri，坚信可以forever young的老年人

校对组：

Mona，悦读悦译，以译会友

Mosy，绘本、演讲、戏剧英文教育践行者

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Nikolai，热爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

    本期的主角是一名优秀的演员，巧合的是，本人也有几位大学时代的朋友走上了舞台剧演员的道路。他们个个都是独立性极强、很有表现欲的人，渴望在任何一部剧中留下属于自己的痕迹，常与导演、场务等背后的工作人员争论不休。似乎在他们看来，剧目能否成功并不重要，关键是自己要演得开心。华纳公司认为你只需要当个花瓶就够了，当个花瓶剧目就能成功，你演得开不开心并不重要。所以讣告主人反抗了这一体制，主动要求出演有思想深度的角色，甚至还将华纳告上法庭，并取得了胜利，实现了一次优秀的下克上。

    说到下克上，就不得不提一提近年来的现象级职场日剧《半泽直树》。该剧以主角、银行家半泽直树和所供职的银行的不合理行为作斗争为主线，第一部12集的平均收视率达到45%，相当于全日本有一半的电视观众在收看该剧。“下属的功劳归上司所有，而上司的过错则由下属承担。”面对这样不合理的制度，以半泽为代表的下属通过不懈努力，实现了对银行的逆袭。同样，在半泽看来，银行这个组织并非一味遵从的对象，关键是“一、实事求是；二、为客户工作；三、与不公正战斗到底，无论对手是谁。”对半泽来说，银行和上司重要吗？当然重要，因为没有银行和上司，他就没有工作，没有战斗的平台；然而，关键是自己不能忘记当初为什么选择了银行家这条路，是为了帮助那些真正需要帮助的人。同理，对一位演员来说，剧目成不成功重要吗？当然也重要，因为如果剧目不成功，他们就没有表现的舞台，名气、金钱、成就感也就无从而来；可是，演出的关键在于保证剧目成功的同时，自己也要演得开心，不盲从，不忘记成为演员的初心，那就是享受演出，为观众、为自己呈现最真实的情感。

    《半泽直树》之所以在日本、甚至在中国引起巨大的轰动，最根本的原因在于它弘扬的是正确的价值观，即工作不是为了上司和一己私利，而是为了实现自我和客户的最大价值。无论从事的是何种职业，只要决定自己这一生都要做这件事，有一种“啊，就是它了”的感觉，那不管战斗的对手是上司、是企业、还是比企业更大的事物，都要毫无惧色地战斗下去。《德·哈维兰法》签署成法，是讣告主人的胜利。就算失败，也可以抬头挺胸地说：我来、我战斗、我未死。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人科技 || 人工智能

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491372&idx=1&sn=f5a9889f0d5bda0bd03710cd10ec3e22&chksm=fba04c8bccd7c59dc4049850a2123df6549b61aab791f4ae495b20c3f30f7b67e71796b491e9#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
琚儿，英专，备考翻硕，外刊学习者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 Bit-lit

成就尚微，道阻且长

英文部分选自经济学人20200808期科技版块

Artificial intelligence

人工智能

Bit-lit

成就尚微，道阻且长

A new language-generating AI can be eerily human-like—for better and for worse

不管好坏，当下一项新的语言生成AI技术能模仿出怪异的人类表达习惯。

注：
什么是GPT-3，它将如何影响人们目前的工作？

https://tech.sina.cn/2020-07-20/detail-iivhvpwx6374338.d.html

The SEC said, “Musk,/your tweets are a blight./They really could cost you your job,/if you don’t stop/all this tweeting at night.”/…Then Musk cried, “Why?/The tweets I wrote are not mean,/I don’t use all-caps/and I’m sure that my tweets are clean.”/“But your tweets can move markets/and that’s why we’re sore./You may be a genius/and a billionaire,/but that doesn’t give you the right to be a bore!”

美国证券交易委员会（SEC)表示：“马斯克（Musk)，你的推特内容有问题。如果，今晚你还是发这种推特，你真的会丢掉饭碗。”马斯克大喊：“为什么？我发的推特并不刻薄，也没全用大写字母，而且我能肯定，我的推特干干净净，无懈可击！”证券交易委员会接着说：“但你的推特会导致市场混乱，所以我们极度愤慨。就算你是个天才，还是个亿万富翁，但这不代表，你可以做如此惹人生厌的事！”

注：

1. 本段描述事件的链接https://www.sohu.com/a/256652331_260616

2. GPT-3为什么怼起了前老板？马斯克：和OpenAI道不同不相为谋

https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20200808A0B47100

The preceding lines—describing Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk’s run-ins with the Securities and Exchange Commission, an American financial regulator—are not the product of some aspiring 21st-century Dr Seuss. They come from a poem written by a computer running a piece of software called Generative Pre-Trained Transformer 3. gpt-3, as it is more commonly known, was developed by Openai, an artificial-intelligence (ai) laboratory based in San Francisco, and which Mr Musk helped found. It represents the latest advance in one of the most studied areas of ai: giving computers the ability to generate sophisticated, human-like text.

上面这段描述特斯拉和SpaceX创始人伊隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）与负责美国金融监管的证券交易委员会之间的争论，可不是某个想成为21世纪的苏斯博士的人创作的，而是由一台运行自然语言生成模型的电脑创作。这个模型叫做预训练语言模型-3，人们常称之为GPT-3。它的开发者是由马斯克协助创办位于旧金山的人工智能（AI）实验室OpenAI。GPT-3代表了人工智能研究极其火热的一个领域内的最新成就——让计算机能够生成复杂的，类似人类表达方式的文本。

注：

苏斯博士（Dr.Seuss），二十世纪最卓越的儿童文学家、教育学家。出生于1904年3月2日，美国人，一生创作的48种精彩教育绘本成为西方家喻户晓的著名早期教育作品，曾获美国图画书最高荣誉凯迪克大奖和普利策特殊贡献奖，两次获奥斯卡金像奖和艾美奖，美国教育部指定的儿童重要阅读辅导读物。作品《乌龟耶尔特及其他故事》

The software is built on the idea of a “language model”. This aims to represent a language statistically, mapping the probability with which words follow other words—for instance, how often “red” is followed by “rose”. The same sort of analysis can be performed on sentences, or even entire paragraphs. Such a model can then be given a prompt— “a poem about red roses in the style of Sylvia Plath”, say—and it will dig through its set of statistical relationships to come up with some text that matches the description.

GPT-3采用了“语言模型”的理念。这样设计旨在用数据来自动生成语言，计算出一些单词出现在另一些单词后面的概率，比如“红色”后面出现“玫瑰”的概率。同样的分析方法可以用于句子，甚至应用于整段话。这种模型也可以接收提示，比如，“写一首关于红玫瑰的诗歌，符合西尔维娅·普拉斯（Sylvia Plath）的写作风格”，随后，它就会充分挖掘数据集，以生成符合描述的文本。

Actually building such a language model, though, is a big job. This is where ai—or machine learning, a particular subfield of ai—comes in. By trawling through enormous volumes of written text, and learning by trial and error from millions of attempts at text prediction, a computer can crunch through the laborious task of mapping out those statistical relationships.

然而，建立这样一个语言模型是个大工程。而这就是人工智能，或者（更确切）说是作为人工智能的一个特定分支的机器学习要发挥作用的地方。计算机大量查阅现有文本，并从数百万次文本预测的尝试和失败中反复摸索学习，最终可以完成这一艰巨的任务，弄清楚这些数据联系。

The more text to which an algorithm can be exposed, and the more complex you can make the algorithm, the better it performs. And what sets gpt-3 apart is its unprecedented scale. The model that underpins gpt-3 boasts 175bn parameters, each of which can be individually tweaked—an order of magnitude larger than any of its predecessors. It was trained on the biggest set of text ever amassed, a mixture of books, Wikipedia and Common Crawl, a set of billions of pages of text scraped from every corner of the internet.

算法学习的文本越多，算法就越复杂，它便能更好地生成文本。GPT-3的与众不同之处在于，其前所未有的数据集，拥有1750亿参数量，每个参数都可以单独微调， 指令量比它所有的旧版本都要高一个量级。GPT-3是在有史以来最大的文本集上进行训练，这包括了书籍、维基百科和网络爬虫语料库，网络爬虫语料库是一组从网络各处提取而成的数十亿页文本。

Statistically speaking

统计学范畴

The results can be impressive. In mid-July Openai gave an early version of the software to selected individuals, to allow them to explore what it could do. Arram Sabeti, an artist, demonstrated gpt-3’s ability to write short stories, including a hard-boiled detective story starring Harry Potter (“Harry Potter, in ratty tweed suit, unpressed shirt and unshined shoes, sits behind the desk looking haggard, rumpled and embittered…”), comedy sketches, and even poetry (including the poem with which this article opens, titled “Elon Musk by Dr Seuss”). Elliot Turner, an ai researcher and entrepreneur, demonstrated how the model could be used to translate rude messages into politer ones, something that might be useful in many of the more bad-tempered corners of the internet. Human readers struggled to distinguish between news articles written by the machine and those written by people (see chart).

其成果相当惊人。七月中旬，Open AI将GPT-3的雏形版本提供给指定人员，让他们自由探索其性能。艺术家阿拉姆·萨贝提（Arram Sabeti）证明，GPT-3能够编写短篇小说，比如一个以哈利波特为主角的冷峻侦探的故事（“哈利波特，穿着皱巴巴的粗花呢西装，衬衫没烫过，皮鞋没有擦亮，坐在桌子后面，看起来憔悴、凌乱又有些恼怒）、喜剧、甚至诗歌（包括本文开篇那首名为《苏斯博士笔下的埃隆·马斯克》的诗）。人工智能研究员、企业家艾略特·特纳（Elliot Turner）展示了如何使用该模型将粗鲁的文字转换成更礼貌的表达，这将在许多充满戾气的网络之地得以应用。读者很难区分机器和人写的新闻稿件（见图）。

Given that Openai wants eventually to sell gpt-3, these results are promising. But the program is not perfect. Sometimes it seems to regurgitate snippets of memorised text rather than generating fresh text from scratch. More fundamentally, statistical word-matching is not a substitute for a coherent understanding of the world. gpt-3 often generates grammatically correct text that is nonetheless unmoored from reality, claiming, for instance, that “it takes two rainbows to jump from Hawaii to 17”. “It doesn’t have any internal model of the world—or any world—and so it can’t do reasoning that requires such a model,” says Melanie Mitchell, a computer scientist at the Santa Fe Institute.

Open AI希望最终将GPT-3推向市场。以上数据都表明GPT-3前景大好，不过，程序尚不完美。有时，它似乎是在反刍记忆中的文本片段，而不是生成新的文字。从根本上来说，统计学上的词语匹配不能代表对世界有清晰理解。很多时候，GPT-3生成的文字语法正确，却与现实脱节。例如，“从夏威夷跳到17需要两道彩虹（it takes two rainbows to jump from Hawaii to 17）”。圣菲研究所的计算机科学家梅拉妮·米歇尔（Melanie Mitchell）指出，“它并不具备世界观，或任何人类的感知思维，所以它无法做出需要以此为基础的推理”。

注：被捧上天的流量巨星GPT-3，突然就不香了？

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/165964889?utm_source=wechat_session&utm_medium=social&utm_oi=719981443886907392

Getting the model to answer questions is a good way to dispel the smoke and mirrors and lay bare its lack of understanding. Michael Nielsen, a researcher with a background in both ai and quantum computing, posted a conversation with gpt-3 in which the program confidently asserted the answer to an important open question to do with the potential power of quantum computers. When Dr Nielsen pressed it to explain its apparent breakthrough, things got worse. With no real understanding of what it was being asked to do, gpt-3 retreated into generic evasiveness, repeating four times the stock phrase “I’m sorry, but I don’t have time to explain the underlying reason why not.”

让GPT-3回答问题是个拨云去雾的好办法，让其理解力缺失的缺点完全暴露。迈克·尼尔森（Michael Nielsen）研究人工智能及量子计算，他发布了一段与GPT-3的对话，在对话中，该程序自信地回答了一个与量子计算机潜力相关的开放性问题。可当尼尔森博士要求它进一步解释确切突破点时，情况便急转直下。由于无法真正理解问题，GPT-3含糊其辞，重复了四次套话“很抱歉，但我没有时间解释我无法回答的理由”。

There are also things that gpt-3 has learned from the internet that Openai must wish it had not. Prompts such as “black”, “Jew”, “woman” and “gay” often generate racism, anti-Semitism, misogyny and homophobia. That, too, is down to gpt-3’s statistical approach, and its fundamental lack of understanding. Having been trained partly on text scraped from the internet, it has noted that words like “woman” are often associated with misogynistic writing, and will mindlessly reproduce that correlation when asked.

与此同时，GPT-3也从网络上学到了一些OPenAI 不愿意让它学习的内容。比如，“黑人”、“犹太人”、“女性”以及“同性恋者”。这类提示性语言通常都有与种族歧视、反犹太主义、厌女症以及恐同相关的含义。而这一切也都归咎于GPT-3自身的统计分析方法，以及基本理解能力的缺失。在运用网络上的文本对其进行一定程度的训练后，人们已经注意到，“女性”这类的字眼通常都与歧视女性的文章有关，并且被问及相关问题时，GPT-3会无意识地再现上述的关联性。

This problem is a hot topic in ai research. Facial-recognition systems, for instance, notoriously do better with white faces than black ones, since white faces are more common in their training sets. Ai researchers are trying to tackle the problem. Last year IBM released a set of training images that contained a more diverse mix of faces. Openai itself was founded to examine ways/to mitigate the risk posed by ai systems, which makes gpt-3’s lapses all the more noteworthy. gpt-2, its predecessor, was released in 2019 with a filter that tried to disguise the problem of regurgitated bigotry by limiting the model’s ability to talk about sensitive subjects.

这个问题是人工智能研究领域的热门话题。比如说，众所周知，与黑人相比，面部识别系统更容易识别出白人，而这也是由于在其训练集中，白人面孔更多。人工智能 研究者正试图努力解决这一问题。去年，IBM就发布了一套更加多元化的人类面部识别训练图像。建立OpenAI的初衷便是降低AI系统存在的这一风险，这也使得GPT-3的任何细小错误都会引起研究者的特别关注。2019年，GPT-3的前身GPT-2发布时就发布了一个过滤器，试图通过限制该模型涉及敏感话题的能力，来掩饰其存在的偏见问题。

注：

OpenAI：由诸多硅谷大亨联合建立的人工智能非营利组织。2015年马斯克与其他硅谷科技大亨进行连续对话后，决定共同创建OpenAI，希望能够预防人工智能的灾难性影响，推动人工智能发挥积极作用。特斯拉电动汽车公司与美国太空技术探索公司SpaceX创始人马斯克、Y Combinator总裁阿尔特曼、天使投资人彼得·泰尔（Peter Thiel）以及其他硅谷巨头去年12月份承诺向OpenAI注资10亿美元。

Here, at least, little progress seems to have been made. gpt-3 was released without a filter, though it seemed just as ready to reproduce unpleasant prejudices as its predecessor (Openai added a filter to the newer model after that fact became obvious). It is unclear exactly how much quality control Openai applied to gpt-3’s training data, but the huge quantity of text involved would have made any attempt daunting.

至少目前已经取得了一些微小的进展。然而，GPT-3似乎随时都有可能重蹈其前身的覆辙，再现一些令人不悦的偏见性的内容, 它在发布时并不带过滤器（但上述问题日益凸显后，OpenAI在最新模型上添加了过滤器）。我们不清楚OpenAI究竟对GPT-3的训练数据做过多少质量测控，然而其涉及文本的数量之庞大，已经令人望而却步，不敢轻易尝试。

It will only get harder in future. Language has overtaken vision as the branch of ai with the biggest appetite for data and computing power, and the returns to scale show no signs of slowing. gpt-3 may well be dethroned by an even more monstrously complex and data-hungry model before long. As the real Dr Seuss once said: “The more that you read, the more things you will know.” That lesson, it seems, applies to machines as well as toddlers. 

GPT-3的前景只会更加艰难。语言已经超越视觉，成为对数据和运算能力需求最大的AI分支，其收益规模没有丝毫放缓的迹象。用不了多久，一个更加复杂、拥有更多数据的模型将取而代之。正如苏斯博士本人曾经说过的那样：“你读的越多，知道的就会越多”。这句话似乎不仅适用于蹒跚学步的孩子，同样也适用于机器。

翻译组： 

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩 

Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

校核组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

如果我们从商业模型的角度去看OpenAI的话，GPT-3的API还存留着很多的未知。在我们讨论这 些未知前，我们首先要弄清楚GPT-3到底是什么？GPT-3是一个“text in, text out”的自然语言的接 口。用更简单的话说，我们给GPT-3的接口输入文字，GPT-3会根据你的需求回答你。而这个接 口的背后是一个复杂度极为恐怖的机器学习模型。截止2020年7月，这个模型有1750亿参数，仅 仅内存就有350GB。要知道，这比大部分个人电脑的硬盘都要大。训练这么个模型已经耗资1200 万美金。

那么，为什么笔者开篇就讨论商业模型？这简直像是黑箱中的黑箱。人工智能的很多模型几乎都 是黑箱技术，更别提这种黑箱技术的商业模型要如何实现了。开篇就提商业模型是因为OpenAI在 做的是一种新型服务：模型服务（MaaS or model as a service)。在OpenAI的官网上，最常问的 问题就是为什么OpenAPI会选择开放商业化API而不是直接开源模型？官方的回答是三点：首先 ，开发模型很贵，而商业话接口让公司可以更好的持续盈利和发展。其次，大概率只有大公司才 能从这些借口中获利，因为这里的使用成本比较高。最后，就是恶意行为监控。

我认为这里的官方回答有很多值得我们深思的点。首先，在过去里，我们看到了大量和机器学习 有关的平台和研究都是围绕算法展开，但最后的模型都采取开源。开源的最直接好处就是对创新 的鼓励，而且会收到大量的使用率。但坏处自然就是开发者无法直接收益。但是OpenAPI的 GPT-3研发从商业模型上告诉了我们这个价值千万美金的模型是有极高的商业价值的。那么从第 二点中，我们又再次确认了这个认知。而且，我们知道这不仅仅是一个商业级别产品，而是个专 业级别的商业产品。首先从第二条初衷来看，OpenAPI会提供的专业级别产品的使用复杂度和成 本应该比普通的开源模型要高的多。而这也意味着OpenAPI的战略路线必然会以专业产品为主线 ，针对企业销售其服务。最后，恶意行为监控是一方面，这里最关键的是方便运营。首先，控制 接口就给了公司更多的工程开发时间。这让OpenAPI可以有选择的慢慢开放接口，这个的好处是 巨大的。因为，OpenAPI可以从这些早期客户中获得极有价值的使用数据。而且同时可以监控 API的使用，进而对恶意使用进行控制和对模型的使用接口进行调整和修改。

那么，为什么说GPT-3的现状依然是个都市传说呢？因为这个接口还是充满未知的。在private beta期间，大多数人都无法真正使用GPT-3的所有功能。其次，这个模型在有测试期间也显现出 了众多问题：最棘手的就是种族歧视问题。这是自然语言学习模型很难跨越的鸿沟，因为训练的 数据本身中有种族歧视的例子，而机器学习本身就是从这些数据中自我演化出来的。再一个挑战 就是解析复杂问题的能力。虽然GPT-3现在已经可以回答开放性的量子物理问题，但它不能解释 它的回答。也就是说，它虽然可以回答，但它并不真的理解它自己的回答。

人工智能的路依然漫长，而GPT-3的开发也依然存在很多挑战，通用的人工智虽然依然遥远，但 又有什么工程在足够的资源和时间面前是建不起来的呢？

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

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经济学人财经 || 疫苗经济学

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491358&idx=1&sn=4c77138664801bce816d67d538cc8fc7&chksm=fba04cb9ccd7c5af738a1666984dec9e70232b6bd9449d546ba302643fbac3e31ea88e96a414#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Vaccine economics

疫苗经济学

英文部分选自经济学人20200808期财经版块

Finance and economics

金融和经济

Vaccine economics

疫苗经济学

More hard questions

更多棘手的问题

As scientists race to develop covid-19 vaccines, governments must work out how much to spend on them, and how best to distribute the goods

科学家竞相研制新冠疫苗的同时，政府必须弄清楚要花多少钱在疫苗上，以及分配疫苗的最好办法

Slowly but surely the economic costs of the covid-19 pandemic are becoming clear. On July 30th America’s statisticians revealed that the economy shrank by 9.5%, year on year, in the second quarter. Output in the euro zone fell even farther. Even South Korea, which has managed the virus better than almost any other country, has not escaped a deep recession.

新冠疫情带来的经济代价逐渐明朗。今年7月30日，美国统计学家公布第二季度经济数据，同比下降9.5%。欧元区的产值降幅更大。尽管韩国的抗疫工作远好过于大多数国家，但也难逃一轮严重的经济衰退。

A vaccine would help end the economic chaos. Scientists and pharmaceutical companies have stepped up to the task. More than 150 vaccines are being developed worldwide, with six in final, large-scale clinical trials. The public-health and economic costs of the pandemic are such that, even as scientists beaver away, policymakers must grapple with two questions: how much to spend on vaccines, in order to ensure enough are made, and how to ensure they are distributed fairly.

疫苗或许能结束这场经济混乱。科学家和制药公司已在加紧完成任务，目前全球正在研发的疫苗超过150种，其中6支已进入最后大规模临床试验阶段。这场疫情带来的公共卫生和经济成本都如此之高，当科学家都在卖力工作时，政策制定者必须设法解决两个问题：在疫苗上花多少钱才能生产足量疫苗，以及怎样保证疫苗的公平分配。

Governments so far have invested more than $10bn in covid-19 vaccines, and made forward purchases of about 4bn doses (though data on deals are murky). As the vaccines may require a course of two doses, in theory this amount could inoculate the world’s most vulnerable people. In fact, effectiveness is far from assured, so a large share of purchases could turn out to be duds. A typical vaccine in final trials has a 20% chance of failure. Some of the candidate covid-19 vaccines involve novel technologies, so the risk of failure could be higher. That explains why rich countries are backing several efforts, with deals being signed every few days (see chart 1).

截至目前，各国政府已经在新冠疫苗上投资了100多亿美元，并提前签订了大约40亿剂的采购合约（尽管交易数据还不明确）。由于一个疗程可能需要两支疫苗剂量，理论上按该计量接种疫苗数量能覆盖世界最弱势群体。但事实上，疫苗的有效性无法保证，所以很大一部分可能会变成废品。一支常规疫苗在最后临床阶段的失败率为20%。一些候选的新冠疫苗涉及到新技术，因此失败的风险可能更高。这解释了为什么富裕国家同时支持几个制药厂，每隔几天就签署新采购订单。（见表1）。

Despite the scramble in America and Europe to get to the front of the queue, countries elsewhere are likely to be under-supplied, and for some time. Japan has arranged to buy enough for just one dose per person, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank (see chart 2). On average, emerging markets have secured enough to cover less than a third of their citizens.

欧美国家拼命争取疫苗优先采购权，但其他很多国家还有可能在一段时间内面临供应不足。高盛银行称，日本计划购买每人仅一剂的疫苗量（见图2）。平均而言，新兴市场国家能保障的剂量仅能覆盖不到三分之一的公民。

GAVI, an alliance that funds vaccines for poor countries, has set up covax, a purchasing pool for several late-stage vaccine candidates. It promises participants doses of an effective vaccine for up to 20% of their population by the end of 2021, with rich countries paying for their supplies and funding a kitty for poor ones. About 80 high- and middle-income countries have said they want to join. But it remains to be seen how many put money on the table: they must pay for the first 15% of their vaccines by the end of the month.

全球疫苗免疫联盟（GAVI）是一个旨在为贫穷国家提供疫苗支持的组织，它建立了支持新冠疫苗供应计划（COVAX），用于采购处于后期研究阶段的候选疫苗。该联盟承诺成员国，截止2021年底，可以为其多达20%的人口接种有效的疫苗。富裕国家出资提供疫苗，并为贫穷国家筹集一笔资金。大约80个高、中收入国家已经表示愿意加入。但是最终有多少国家愿意出资尚不明确，他们必须在月底前支付15%的疫苗费用。

注：

Kitty: n. 凑集的一笔钱；小猫。

Even meeting the commitments they have already made will be a stretch for pharma companies, much less producing enough for the world. Existing manufacturing facilities can be repurposed for some types of jabs. For others, however, new ones must be built. These can cost about half a billion dollars apiece, and typically take three years to get up and running.

即便是履行已做出的承诺量，这对于制药公司来说已经是一个负担，更不用提为全世界生产足量疫苗。现有的生产设备可以改装后生产一些类型的疫苗。但是对于其他类型，则需要创建新设备。每台机器将大约花费5亿美元，而且通常需要3年时间才能完成和投产。

A company normally sets up production once a vaccine wins regulatory approval. But these are not normal times. To speed things up, some firms have started mass-producing vaccines that are still in clinical trials. Companies may have promised 4bn doses, but some of their vaccines may not pass trials and will have to be poured away. Many experts think supply will also be constrained by global shortages of things like vials and syringes. They put a more realistic estimate of global supply by the end of next year at nearer 2bn.

公司通常需在疫苗获得监管批准后才能开始生产。但现在是非常时期，为了加速进展，一些公司在疫苗仍处于临床试验阶段就已开始量产。公司或许承诺了生产40亿剂量，但一些疫苗或因未能通过试验而被废弃。许多专家认为一些物品的全球短缺也会影响供应，例如药水瓶和注射器。专家给出了一个更为合理的预测：到明年年底全球供应量近20亿剂量。

As that is nowhere near enough to cover the world, it is easy to imagine fights breaking out once effective vaccines become available. The experience of past pandemics is hardly encouraging on this front. During the h1n1 (swine flu) pandemic in 2009-10 rich countries cornered supplies of the vaccine to fight the disease. Only when they had more than they needed did they offer some of it to poor countries. By then, the disease had swept across the planet and the pandemic was over.

20亿远不能覆盖全球需求量。可想而知，一旦有效疫苗可供使用，将会爆发冲突。过去流行病的经验也很难鼓舞人心。在2009-10年的H1N1（猪流感）流行期间，富裕国家通过垄断疫苗的供应来抵御病毒。只有当供过于求时，他们才将一些疫苗提供给了贫困国家。但那时流感早已席卷全球，流行病也已宣告结束。

Early in the covid-19 pandemic, too, global co-operation quickly broke down. By late April, 80 jurisdictions had restricted exports, with governments especially keen to hoard supplies of disinfectants, personal protective equipment and thermometers. Some countries even seized shipments passing through their territory.

在新冠病毒早期阶段，全球合作也很快地瓦解了。截至4月末，80个管辖区域限制出口，政府尤其热衷于囤积消毒剂、个人防护用品和温度计等物资。一些国家甚至扣押途径领土的货物。

Fearful of a repeat of such marauding, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, an alliance of charities and governments that has funded the early development of some of the most promising covid-19 vaccines, has organised manufacturing on several continents. So have some pharma companies.

因为害怕再次出现这样的劫掠，一家慈善组织和政府联盟——流行病防范创新联盟已经组织疫苗在多个洲进行生产。该联盟还早在一些最有望成功的新冠疫苗早期研发阶段便提供了资助。其他一些制药公司同样开始在多个洲进行生产。

The World Health Organisation (WHO) is also trying to avert vaccine politics. It has drawn up guidelines for how early supplies should be distributed in order to save the most lives, protect fragile health systems and hasten the end of the pandemic. The first doses would go to health and social-care workers, and the next batch to the 20% of people in each country who are most likely to die from covid-19 if infected. The rest would then go to places with the highest risk of outbreaks. Covax has signed up to these principles, but there is no indication that countries would respect them in their bilateral deals with drug companies, rather than act in narrow self-interest.

世界卫生组织（WHO）也在努力避免疫苗政治。制定了如何尽早分配疫苗的指导方针，以尽力挽救生命，保护脆弱的医疗系统，并加速这一流行病的结束。第一批疫苗将提供给医护人员和社会保障工作者，下一批将提供给各国最有可能死于新冠的20% 的人群。剩下的疫苗将会被送往最高危的病毒爆发区。Covax已经签署了指导方针，但没有迹象表明，各国会在与制药公司的双边协议中尊重这些原则，摒弃狭隘的自身利益。

There are slim hopes that America, China or Russia, among others, will allow exports of a vaccine made on their territory before enough is available for all of their citizens. But vaccine manufacturing and distribution involves a complicated global supply chain of raw ingredients, adjuvants (chemicals commonly used to boost potency), vials and so on. In the worst case, countries denied a share of the vaccines could ban exports of such inputs to the hoarding country. Everyone loses.

美国、中国或俄罗斯等国在本国公民获得足够疫苗之前，允许出口本国制造疫苗的希望渺茫。但是疫苗的生产和分销涉及复杂的全球供应链，包括原材料、佐剂(通常用于提高效力的化学物质)、小瓶等等。在最坏的情况下，未获得疫苗的国家可能会禁止向囤积疫苗的国家出口这些产品。这种情况下，每个人都是输家。

注：

Hoarding：贮藏；囤积；(尤指)秘藏

A global free-for-all, then, seems inevitable. One way to mitigate this would be to spend more. Some economists argue that governments could do more to hurry along vaccine manufacture and distribution. Separate groups of researchers reckon that the world needs to invest around $100bn in order to make several vaccines early and in sufficient quantities. That would be a ten-fold increase in what has been spent. But set against the output lost and the $7trn in stimulus injected into the global economy so far, it is peanuts. 

那么，全球范围内的混战似乎无法避免。缓解这种情况的一个方法就是增加开支。一些经济学家认为，政府可以采取更多措施加快疫苗的生产和分发。不同的研究小组估计，全世界需要投资大约1000亿美元，才能及早生产出足够数量的几种疫苗。那将是现有投入基础上再增加十倍。但与产出损失和迄今为止向全球经济注入的7万亿美元刺激计划相比，简直小巫见大巫。

注：

1.free-for-all：单数名词可自由参加的活动;众人同时争抢的情形：A free-for-all is a situation in which several people or groups are trying to get something for themselves and there are no controls on how they do it.

2.Peanuts：(informal) a very small amount of money；很少的钱

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Alex，女，小研究员一枚，经济学人粉丝

Chao，男，爱读书思考的DPhil Candidate，TE粉丝

Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

研制出可以可供全球使用的新冠疫苗恐怕需要等到2021年，这意味着寄希望于研制出的疫苗来应对COVID-19恐怕是远水解不了近渴的。因为各国领导人都将应对COVID-19视为必须要证明自己的考试，而国内反对者会以此作为攻击当前执政者的重要政治议题，所以因疫苗研发后，该国所生产疫苗必然会优先派发给该国民众，没有人敢于承担被扣叛国的罪名。即使受到外国政治压力施压，该国领导人会在确保自身民意安全的情况下适当妥协于外部压力。

虽然COVID-19造成了各国经济衰退，但也催生了相关药品尤其口罩、疫苗研发、临床卫生等方面的需求。同时各国央行的显著增加流动性的方式，其实打破了COVID-19之前秉承的一贯货币政策思路，例如中国偏紧的货币政策和美国加息通道结束后的观望式货币政策。突然放松的货币政策改变了市场对于未来货币政策的预期，随后“主流偏见”+“基本趋势”在疫情泛滥和央行大水放闸的混乱期间逐步形成，因为央行的目标在COVID-19爆发之后转变为“尽可能保住市场主体以赢得未来”，且适度宽松的货币政策预计在今年退出还为时尚早，且当前受困于未来中美贸易和美国政治大选的不确定性，于是市场主流预期当前A股徘徊在3300左右，3500为阻力线。如果反复震荡后突破了原来的阻力，那么它将有余量的动力继续向上滑动；而如果不能突破，将有新的主流偏见形成。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人商业 || “别无选择”的困境

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491344&idx=1&sn=fba6814f35dfc1a2299f025568c2a094&chksm=fba04cb7ccd7c5a19cbb303deac440f6ec6914dc0d944b287f91d0a45bf92f47625b81dff18a#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The trouble with TINA

“别无选择”的困境

英文部分选自经济学人20200808期Business版块

The trouble with TINA

“别无选择”的困境

注：

TINA为“There is no alternative”的缩写，文章中会有提及。

America’s stockmarkets are flying high. Its companies still aren’t

美国股市一路飙升，但美国公司却停滞不前

The latest earnings season in America Inc is the weirdest in living memory

美国公司的最新收益季诡异性当属历史之最

Bob chapek, Disney’s boss, sounded a cheerful note as he announced the entertainment giant’s quarterly results on August 4th. Its newish streaming service, Disney+, has acquired over 60m subscribers in less than a year, one-tenth the time it took Netflix to amass such an audience. “Mulan”, an upcoming blockbuster, will be released on Disney+ in September. “Despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, we have continued to build on the incredible success of Disney+ as we grow,” Mr Chapek intoned. The company’s share price jumped by 5%.

8月4日，迪士尼老板鲍勃·查佩克在公布娱乐巨头（这里指迪士尼）季度收益时，语气轻松愉快。迪士尼旗下新款流媒体服务（迪士尼+）不到一年就已揽获6千多万用户，而网飞却花费了十倍时间达到同样的用户量。大片《花木兰》将于9月在迪士尼+上映。查佩克郑重其事地说：“尽管疫情带来的挑战不断，但随着我们的发展，迪士尼+已经大获成功。”迪士尼的股价上涨了5%。

If you tuned out the first part of Mr Chapek’s statement—and six months’ worth of covid-19 news—you might conclude that Disney just had a bumper quarter. In fact, as its theme parks shut down, cinemas emptied and battered advertisers stinted on commercials on its television networks, the company lost $4.7bn. The reason for the market chirpiness is that things could have been far worse.

如果对查佩克的前半部分讲话以及长达6个月的新冠疫情新闻充耳不闻，你也许会断定迪士尼上季度收益颇丰。但实际上，由于迪士尼主题公园关闭、电影院空无一人以及连遭重创的广告商削减了在电视网络上的自家业务，迪士尼损失47亿美元。令市场振奋的原因则是情况本可能更为糟糕。

注：

Tune out: you stop listening or paying attention to what is being said.

Disney’s experience sums up that of America Inc more broadly. Investors have been casting about for any signs of a rebound from the pandemic-induced recession. Real gdp shrank at an annualised rate of nearly 33% in the second quarter. And yet, with interest rates—and thus returns on safe assets like Treasury bonds—close to zero, money has poured into equities. American share prices have risen by more than 40% from their trough in March. The s&p 500 index of big firms is near an all-time high; the tech-heavy Nasdaq market reached it on August 4th. The feeling among investors that “there is no alternative” to stocks is so pervasive that they have dusted off an old acronym: tina.

迪士尼的经历很大程度地概括了美国公司的现状。投资者一直在想方设法地搜寻经济（从疫情导致的经济衰退中）回暖的信号。二季度，GDP年率缩减了近33%。但利率和诸如长期国库债券等安全资产利率近乎为零，投资者便将钱转投股市。，美国股价比3月低谷期上涨超过了40%。标普500指数几乎处于空前高位，科技企业为主的纳斯达克市场8月4日达到峰值。“除了股票，别无选择”这一观念在投资者间弥漫，他们重拾了一个年代久远的缩写词：TINA（别无选择）。

注：

1. Cast about for something：to search for or seek something by looking randomly or in many places.

2. Dust off：重温、复习

4. In one way, the latest quarterly results justify a degree of optimism. Three months ago the situation was so uncertain that many firms, not just in America, refused to offer their habitual guidance about future earnings—in some cases for the first time ever. Bereft of milestones, analysts slashed profit forecasts. Now it seems they may have erred on the side of gloom. Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, a bank, calculates that for those firms which have already reported their results for the most recent quarter—a group representing 84% of the s&p 500’s market capitalisation—earnings have beaten hyper-bearish estimates by a total of 24%.

某种意义上说，最新的季度业绩证实了一定的乐观情绪是有道理的。三个月前，形势充满不确定性，致使许多公司（不止美国公司）拒绝按惯例提供未来的收益指导—某些情况下而言这是破天荒的头一遭。没有了这些指导，分析师大幅下调了利润预期。现在看来，他们可能误判了形势。瑞士信贷银行的乔纳森•戈卢布计算得出，那些已经公布了最近季度业绩的公司(占标准普尔500指数市值84%的群体)，它们的收益总计比过度看跌的预期高了24%。

Bulls see other hopeful signs. After a plunge earlier this year, capital spending grew at its fastest monthly pace since Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, began tracking it in 2004. New orders for factory goods rose by 6.2% in June. JPMorgan Chase, a bank, believes that a global “synchronised cyclical recovery from the covid-19 crash has started”, with manufacturing leading the way. “Recovery is happening,” echoes Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley, pointing to promising advances in treatments and vaccines for covid-19.

多头看到了其他的积极信号。经历了今年初暴跌之后，月度资本支出增长迅速，增速超过了投资银行摩根斯坦利(Morgan Stanley)自2004年跟踪以来的最大增幅。6月份，工厂产品的新订单增长了6.2%。摩根大通认为，以制造业为首的全球“同步周期性经济已经从新冠疫情危机中开始复苏”。“复苏正在发生，”摩根士丹利的迈克尔•威尔逊(Michael Wilson)回应道。他指出，covid-19的治疗和疫苗取得了积极的进展，前景一片光明。

Hang on a minute. The green shoots offer hope and earnings may have beaten expectations. But, as David Kostin of Goldman Sachs, another bank, notes, the bar was very low. By his reckoning, in a typical quarter about 5% of firms produce earnings per share above forecasts. That this quarter’s figure may be closer to 25% is merely “kabuki theatre” of expectation management, he says. If the bottom fell out of the economy in the second quarter, as official statistics imply, then the private sector must be dragging it down.

桥豆麻袋！ 经济复苏的迹象带来了希望，而且收益可能超预期。但是，正如高盛银行大卫·科斯汀所指出的那样，（这次复苏的）门槛会非常低。根据他的估算，一个平常的季度，约有5%的公司的每股收益（EPS）高于预期。他说，这个季度的数字可能接近25%，这只是期望管理的“歌舞伎剧院”。如果像官方统计数据暗示的那样，经济在第二季度跌穿底部，那么一定是私营经济拖了后腿。

注：
The phrases Kabuki theater, kabuki dance, or kabuki play are sometimes used in political discourse to describe an event characterized more by showmanship than by content.

The bottom fall out of the economy:

https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/100939/what-does-the-bottom-fell-out-of-the-economy-mean

Quarterly sales fell by an average of 10%, year on year, at s&p 500 companies which reported by the end of July. Some industries suffered a bigger hit. Revenues plunged by half at energy firms, a third for producers of durable goods and other non-staples, and by nearly as much at industrial firms (see chart 1). Overall, earnings per share contracted faster at American firms, by a third year on year, than those at historically less profitable European ones, whose profits fell by less than a quarter.

据报道，截至7月底，标普500公司的季度销售额同比平均下降了10％。一些行业遭受的冲击更加惨重。能源公司的收入腰斩，耐用品和其他副产品生产商的收入下降了1/3，而工业公司的收入降幅也相差无几（见图1）。总体而言，美国公司的每股收益（EPS）同比缩水了1/3，损失大于传统意义上获利能力较弱的欧洲公司——其利润下降了不到1/4。

The crunch is worse at smaller firms. Mr Kostin calculates that, as of August 3rd, quarterly earnings for s&p 500 companies were down by about 35% year on year. For those in the Russell 2000 index of smaller firms, they had nearly evaporated entirely.

小型企业情况更加艰难。科斯汀先生估算，截至8月3日，标准普尔500公司的季度收益同比下降约35％，而以中小型企业为主的罗素2000指数公司市值几乎全部蒸发掉了。

The collective headline numbers for big companies are also flattered by the success of America’s technology giants (see chart 2). Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet are thriving, by making life possible for remote workers, online shoppers and anyone who seeks solace online. The quintet, which together represent 22% of the s&p 500’s market value, up from 16% a year ago, has generated stockmarket returns of 35% so far this year, against -5% for the other 495 firms in the index.

美国科技巨头的成功拉高了大公司的整体表现（见图2）。通过远程办公、在线购物和方便的在线娱乐，脸书、苹果、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet（谷歌母公司）蓬勃发展。该五巨头占标准普尔500市值的22％，高于1年前的16％，并且五巨头今年迄今为止已产生了35％的股市收益，而该指数中其他495家公司的收益率为-5％。

This dominance has boosted the market—and investor confidence. But it poses a risk for the unwary. Mr Golub says that unlike the flaky internet firms that collapsed when the dotcom bubble burst two decades ago, the five tech titans have solid business models, little debt and strong revenue growth. But should a speedy recovery materialise, money could flow out of tech and into currently unloved sectors such as heavy industry.

科技巨头的显著表现提振了市场和投资者的信心，但也给无风险意识的人带来了风险。戈卢布先生说，与20年前互联网泡沫破灭时倒闭的脆弱互联网公司不同，这五家科技巨头商业模式成熟、债务低和收入增长强劲。但如果经济迅速复苏，资金可能会流出科技行业，流入重工业等目前不受欢迎的行业。

注：

Dotcom bubble 互联网泡沫

Another underappreciated threat to share prices comes from government. Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup, a bank, points out that the “womb to tomb” safety net in Europe provides more generous and longer-lived relief in a downturn than America’s more threadbare benefits. Congress seems poised to reduce stimulus spending that has supported firms keeping furloughed workers on their payrolls and paid unusually plush unemployment benefits, which recipients could spend not just on rent and bills but also on other, less vital things. Mr Levkovich calculates that taxpayers financed between $50bn and $75bn of firms’ labour costs associated with furloughed workers. If such support is withdrawn in the second half of the year, he warns, “we must worry that the upside earnings surprises are not repeatable.”

对股价的另一个被低估的威胁来自政府。花旗银行的托拜厄斯•莱夫科维奇指出在经济低迷期，相比美国无力的救助计划，欧洲“从摇篮到坟墓”的社会保障体系提供了更加慷慨和长久的救济。美国国会似乎准备减少用于帮助企业支付休假员工薪资及难得的优厚失业救济金的刺激支出。受助人不仅可以用救济金支付房租和账单，还可以花在其他不那么重要的事情上。莱夫科维奇估计纳税人资助了500亿至750亿美金用于休假或停职员工相关的企业劳动成本上。他警告到，如果今年下半年取消该刺激支出，“我们必须意识到（股票市场）收益上的惊喜不会重现。”

注：

1. threadbare 1. (衣物)磨破的threadbare carpet 2.(论点、借口、主意)陈腐、乏味的threadbare clichés

2. furloughed adj. 停止的/被休假的

For the time being the market thinks they are. ceos themselves are partly responsible for this, by tirelessly spinning investors a positive yarn. s&p 500 firms which forecast higher future earnings now outnumber those offering lower or no guidance by two to one (see chart 3). In the previous quarter the coy and pessimistic were 15 times as numerous as the sunny.

眼下，市场的确是乐观的。首席执行官可能要负上一部分责任，因为他们不知疲惫地向投资者抛出正面消息。标普500指数公司中，预计未来收益会更高的公司与那些预计收益更低或不提供指导的多了一倍(见表3)。在上个季度，不愿提供信息和悲观的公司是乐观公司的15倍。

注：

1. spin (sb) a yarn, tale, etc.杜撰故事，编造故事（以让人信以为真）try to make sb believe a story that is not true

2. outnumber：In this profession, women outnumber men by two to one. 在这个行业，女性人数是男性的两倍。

3. Coy  1.（尤指对爱情或性爱）羞羞答答的，假装害羞无知的，故作忸怩的 a coy smile 羞答答的微笑 2. 愿提供信息的；不肯作答的；含糊其辞的 She was a little coy about how much her dress cost.

Yet when the Conference Board, a research group, recently surveyed hundreds of American bosses anonymously, it encountered much more pessimism about the timing and robustness of economic recovery than among ceos in Europe and Asia. Whereas 40% of chief executives in China see sales returning to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020, only 12% of American bosses do. The Conference Board concludes that a return to pre-coronavirus revenues is “at least a year or more down the road” and that “risk and volatility will remain high for the foreseeable future.” Sooner or later investors seduced by ceos’ public sweet talk—and by tina—will come to their senses. Won’t they?

然而，研究机构世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)最近对数百名美国企业老总进行了匿名调查，发现与欧洲和亚洲的首席执行官相比，他们对经济复苏的时机和力度更为悲观。在中国，40%的首席执行官预计到2020年底销售将恢复到疫情前的水平，而在美国，只有12%持此观点。世界大型企业联合会总结认为，恢复疫情前的收入“至少需要今后一年或更长的时间”，而且“在可预见的未来，风险和波动性仍将维持高位”。投资者迟早会从首席执行官们花言巧语的公开讲话和“别无选择”的诱惑中清醒过来，不是吗?

注：

come to one's sense 清醒过来；恢复理性；醒悟

翻译组：

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Megan, 女，外企民工，好想一身都是月

Monica，女，MTIer，死不悔改的理想主义者

Zoey，女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工

业

校对组：

Elle, 女，靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Angela, 女，Northwestern本科在读，double major 数学哲学

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Forest，女，自由职业，爱树的人

预期对于宏观经济的重要性不言而喻。心理因素本身不是生产行为，但是影响着对生产而言至关重要的投资行为。

文章挺长，含义还是清晰的。众所周知的是疫情使美国GDP（生产）狂跌，照说应该带来股市的整体负面表现，可股市却逆势升扬，但仔细瞅瞅发现这其实是“以偏概全”，高科技股在疫情期间用户数量和利润的奇异升幅覆盖了那些当前不受欢迎的线下企业、中小企业的低迷和萧索。

这种失速的增长看似诡异，想想也是合情合理。

高科技企业是大家当下必须依赖的工作、生活和消费服务获取平台，增长如此之高恰恰是大家对疫情影响之大早先预期不到位的表现；而这种增长力度也可能隐藏着日后的风险，如果线下其他产业所受不利影响足够大且长远，高科技企业也终究难逃经济整体下滑之劫？

科技企业也在积极参与对消费者的预期管理，迪士尼+一年之短便获网飞十年之功，没有疫情助力，何以能达？不过这种急速增长能否长期维系？迪士尼果真已稳获如此之大的成功？迪士尼希望自己和大家都能相信确实已然如此。

对普通投资者来说，疫情的影响早已被预期到，所以股市早就消化了这些信息，而只有高科技股是人们在此时嫁接自己乐观情绪的合理安全之所在。

问题是，高科技股之外的其他行业股票表现仍然欠佳，这是否意味着人们并未真正地对市场恢复信心，或者就现时期本质而言，疫情的影响还要延绵多久远人们仍然毫无笃信。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人社论 || 缺席的大学生

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491332&idx=1&sn=92a840a48cd0d4d78f7eb187d91076da&chksm=fba04ca3ccd7c5b5c4137a2a6a925556a58c687df18be38eb41e8539031a90c65059e27ed751#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The absent student

 缺席的大学生

英文部分选自经济学人20200808期Leaders版块

Universities

 大学

The absent student

 缺席的大学生

Covid-19 will be painful for universities, but it will also bring long-needed change

新冠疫情给大学带来痛苦，但也会带来长期需要的变革。

In the normal run of things, late summer sees airports in the emerging world fill with nervous 18-year-olds, jetting off to begin a new life in the rich world’s universities. The annual trek of more than 5m students is a triumph of globalisation. Students see the world; universities get a fresh batch of high-paying customers. Yet with flights grounded and borders closed, this migration is about to become the pandemic’s latest victim.

正常情况下，夏末时分，新兴国家的机场挤满紧张不安的18岁青年。他们随即登机，前往发达国家的大学展开新征程。每年，超过500万学生历此跋涉，这是全球化的成果。学生得以感受世界，大学则能从中获得一笔不菲收入。然而，由于航班停飞，边境封锁，国际学生就要成为疫情的最新受害者。

For students, covid-19 is making life difficult. Many must choose between inconveniently timed seminars streamed into their parents’ living rooms and inconveniently deferring their studies until life is more normal. For universities, it is disastrous. They will not only lose huge chunks of revenue from foreign students but, because campus life spreads infection, they will have to transform the way they operate.

对学生而言，新冠疫情正让生活变得艰难。许多学生要么克服时差，在父母的客厅上网课，要么就只能推迟学业，直至生活趋于正轨。对大学而言，这是一场灾难。它们不光会损失大笔来自留学生的收入，并且，由于校园生活会加重疫情扩散，大学不得不转变其运行方式。

Yet the disaster may have an upside. For many years government subsidies and booming demand have allowed universities to resist changes that could benefit both students and society. They may not be able to do so for much longer.

不过，这场灾难也可能有好的一面。多年来，政府的补贴和旺盛的需求使得大学固步自封，抵制对学生和社会都有好处的变革。而现在，它们也许坚持不了多久了。

Higher education has been thriving. Since 1995, as the notion spread from the rich world to the emerging one that a degree from a good institution was essential, the number of young people enrolling in higher education rose from 16% of the relevant age group to 38%. The results have been visible on swanky campuses throughout the Anglosphere, whose better universities have been the principal beneficiaries of the emerging world’s aspirations.

高等教育一向发展迅速。1995年以来，一种观念从发达国家蔓延到了新兴国家，即名校学位必不可少，因此，接受高等教育的年轻人在相关年龄组别中的比例从16%上升到了38%。英语世界的名校对此感受最明显，它们是新兴世界莘莘学子海外求学的主要受益者。

Yet troubles are piling up. China has been a source of high-paying foreign students for Western universities, but relations between the West and China are souring. Students with ties to the army are to be banned from America.

然而，麻烦也层出不穷。支付高昂学费的中国留学生一直是西方大学的收入来源，但西方和中国之间的关系却在恶化。与军队有牵连的学生即将禁止入境美国。

Governments have been turning against universities, too. In an age when politics divides along educational lines, universities struggle to persuade some politicians of their merit. President Donald Trump attacks them for “Radical Left Indoctrination, not Education”. Some 59% of Republican voters have a negative view of colleges; just 18% of Democrats do. In Britain universities’ noisy opposition to Brexit has not helped. Given that the state pays for between a quarter and a half of tertiary education in America, Australia and Britain, through student loans and grants, the government’s enthusiasm matters.

政府也站在了大学的对立面。现如今，教育方面的政治分化愈演愈烈（政客们对教育的看法大相径庭），大学很难说服一些政客相信它们的优点。唐纳德·特朗普总统抨击它们进行的是“激进的左翼思想灌输，而不是教育”。大约59%的共和党选民对大学持负面看法，而只有18%的民主党人持相同看法。在英国，大学对脱欧的强烈反对让情况更糟。鉴于美国、澳大利亚和英国四分之一到一半的高等教育资金是由国家通过发放学生贷款和助学金支付的，因此政府的热情十分重要。

注：Doesn’t help means  “makes the situation worse”

Scepticism among politicians is not born only of spite. Governments invest in higher education to boost productivity by increasing human capital. But even as universities have boomed, productivity growth in the rich-country economies has fallen. Many politicians suspect that universities are not teaching the right subjects, and are producing more graduates than labour markets need. Small wonder that the state is beginning to pull back. In America government spending on universities has been flat in recent years; in Australia, even as the price of humanities degrees doubles, so it will fall for subjects the government deems good for growth.

政客们对大学的质疑并非只是为了泄愤。政府之所以投资高等教育是为了通过增加人力资本来提高生产力。但是，即便高等教育蓬勃发展，富裕国家的生产力增长还是在下降。许多政客怀疑，大学并没有教授正确的科目，而且培养的毕业生数量超过了劳动力市场的需求。因此难怪政府开始从高等教育领域抽身。近年来，美国政府在大学方面的支出一直保持在同一水平；在澳大利亚，人文学科学费翻了一番，而那些政府认为有利于（经济）增长的学科学费将有所下降。

There are questions about the benefits to students, too. The graduate premium is healthy enough, on average, for a degree to be financially worthwhile, but not for everybody. In Britain the Institute for Fiscal Studies (ifs) has calculated that a fifth of graduates would be better off if they had never gone to university. In America four in ten students still do not graduate six years after starting their degree—and, for those who do, the wage premium is shrinking. Across the world as a whole, student enrolment continues to grow, but in America it declined by 8% in 2010-18.

学生能从高等教育中获益多少也存在疑问。平均而言，大学毕业生身份带来的工资溢价使得上大学有着足够的经济回报，但并非对每个人都是如此。据英国财政研究所(IFS)计算，五分之一的大学毕业生如果当年不上大学现在可以过得更好。在美国，有十分之四的学生大学读了六年还没有毕业；而且，对于剩下十分之六顺利毕业的大学生来说，他们的工资溢价正呈现下降趋势。全世界的大学入学人数都在持续增长，但在美国，2010至2018年间大学入学人数下降了8%。

注：

graduate premium：The graduate or professional premium is a term used to describe the increase in average wages that university graduates can expect having achieved a degree.

（详见https://www.futurefinance.com/blog/the-graduate-premium/）

Then came covid-19. Although recessions tend to boost demand for higher education, as poor job prospects spur people to seek qualifications, revenues may nevertheless fall. Government rules will combine with student nerves to keep numbers down. Last month the Trump administration said new foreign students would not be allowed to enter the country if their classes had moved online. Sydney, Melbourne, unsw and Monash, four of Australia’s leading universities, rely on foreign students for a third of their income. The ifs expects losses at English universities to amount to over a quarter of one year’s revenues.

接着是新冠肺炎所引发的问题。尽管经济衰退往往会刺激社会对高等教育的需求（因为糟糕的就业前景会促使人们寻求高学历），但高校收入可能仍会下降。政府的严格规定和学生的紧张情绪将导致入学人数下降。特朗普政府于上月表示，如果大学实行线上教学，将不允许外国新生进入美国。澳大利亚的四所顶尖院校——悉尼大学、墨尔本大学、新南威尔士大学和莫纳什大学，三分之一的收入来自外国学生。IFS预计英国大学的亏损将超过年收入的四分之一。

The damage from covid-19 means that, in the short term at least, universities will be more dependent on governments than ever. The ifs reckons that 13 universities in Britain risk going bust. Governments ought to help colleges, but should favour institutions that provide good teaching and research or benefit their community. Those that satisfy none of those criteria should be allowed to go to the wall.

新冠疫情带来的打击，意味着至少在短期内大学将前所未有地依赖政府支持。IFS认为，英国13所大学可能因资金短缺而关闭。政府理应为大学提供支持，但应该偏向那些教育质量高、研究能力强、社会影响力大的学校。而一条都不符合的学校，就算因资金缺乏而倒闭，也在情理之中。

注：Go to the wall: to fail because of lack of money(因资金缺少)走投无路，失败，破产

Those that survive must learn from the pandemic. Until now most of them, especially the ones at the top of the market, have resisted putting undergraduate courses online. That is not because remote teaching is necessarily bad—a third of graduate students were studying fully online last year—but because a three- or four-year degree on campus was universities’ and students’ idea of what an undergraduate education should look like. Demand for the services of universities was so intense that they had no need to change.

度过难关的学校应从疫情中学到一课。其中大部分学校，尤其是一些排名靠前的，一直都拒绝将本科生课程改为网课。这并不是因为远程教学一定不好——毕竟去年三分之一的研究生都在网上学习——而是因为大学和学生认为本科教育就应该是三到四年的校园实体课。之前人们对大学的需求如此旺盛，以至于大学并不需要改变。

Now change is being forced upon them. The College Crisis Initiative at Davidson College says that less than a quarter of American universities are likely to teach mostly or wholly in person next term. If that persists, it will reduce the demand. Many students buy the university experience not just to boost their earning capacity, but also to get away from their parents, make friends and find partners. But it should also cut costs, by giving students the option of living at home while studying.

但现在它们不得不做出改变。戴维森学院的“大学危机倡议”指出，下学期可能只有不到四分之一的美国院校会选择面授课。如果这种情况持续下去，入学需求便会下降。许多学生交学费上大学，并不只是为了提升自己的职业技能，他们可能还想跟父母分开一阵子，交些新朋友，寻找自己的伴侣。但同时，学校提供学生在家上课的选项有助于降低成本。

注：

1. Back to the mortarboard回到学位问题

2. mortarboard: a black hat with a stiff square top, worn by some university teachers and students at special ceremonies学位帽，方顶帽

Covid-19 is catalysing innovation, too. The Big Ten Academic Alliance, a group of midwestern universities, is offering many of its 600,000 students the opportunity to take online courses at other universities in the group. There is huge scope for using digital technology to improve education. Poor in-person lectures could be replaced by online ones from the best in the world, freeing up time for the small-group teaching which students value most.

疫情也催生了创新。十大学术联盟（The Big Ten Academic Alliance）由美国中西部十几所大学组成，现正为其多达60余万学生提供联盟内其他高校的网课。用科技提升教育，还有很大的发展空间。教室里不乏低质量的课程，而全球范围内的高质量线上课程可以取代它们，为学生最喜欢的小组教学腾出时间。

Universities are rightly proud of their centuries-old traditions, but their ancient pedigrees have too often been used as an excuse for resisting change. If covid-19 shakes them out of their complacency, some good may yet come from this disaster.

毫无疑问，大学有理由为其传承数百年的传统感到自豪，但悠久的历史往往都被当作拒不求变的借口。如果疫情能让它们摆脱自满情绪，灾难过后，它们会从中受益。

翻译组：

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

 Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后

Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Samantha，女，不吃米饭，邓伦未婚妻

    距离感不是一件很难做到的事。家里老人说过一句话，没有受不了的罪，只有享不了的福。今年开年到现在，朋友们的最大变化就是越来越淡定。新闻里一会一变的感染数字，突发状况，应对措施，和一系列强制规定，让大家迅速做足了对疫情常态化的心理预备。人的适应能力之强有时令自己都惊讶。线上相聚频繁，一回到真正的面对面讲话，反而觉得有点不自在：你习惯了在摄像头以外放飞自我四仰八叉，我也一样。

    距离感也许能激发新的生活艺术。文中有句话挺同意，读书不仅是为了知识，还为了离开父母，认识朋友，获得伙伴。吴宗宪有一次在《综艺玩很大》里调侃，如今的年轻人在家靠父母，出门靠父母的朋友。我们这代母胎solo的社恐患者经常自嘲没朋友，其实心里都知道，总有一个人可以让你放心倾诉。而且更有趣的是，疫情以来，那些经常在线上互动、或者干脆就是从网络中认识的人，沟通成本往往比想象得要低很多。大家都孤独，我无心骗你，你也并没武装起太多防备。你我都是期待在特殊时期也能互相陪伴的陌生人。

    距离感唯一需要警醒的地方是“敬”和“恒”。作为群体动物如果失去感受周围环境的意识，自己难免失去“活得像样”的动力。懒得洗脸，懒得化妆，懒得做饭，因为反正摄像头能美颜，没人真正看到这人过的怎么样。这让人想起几个月前的一条热搜，安徽一所中职学校的一名体育生为了保持竞技状态，从1月到4月，利用家里的车轱辘和空心砖，就地取材坚持训练，考上了梦想中的大学。说起来像鸡汤，但细想想这位学生在隔离时期做到了一件改变自己人生的事，真挺酷的。强大的意志力并不是天赋，只要足够在乎自己的人生，并对未来抱有一点点不甘心、一点点期待，那不管教育是在线上还是线下，眼下的距离感只会成为帮你拾级而上，手摘星辰的一把云梯。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

本周翻译预告（翻译课筹备组招小伙伴啦）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491323&idx=1&sn=4880d82177ee382388787c7ca77e4638&chksm=fba04d5cccd7c44a4e6d13da69202012ad3726d9de3d676d45193e91d2807c842469cd4479a8#rd

写作课已经在磨课当中，请大家耐心等待......

万众期待的翻译课也正在筹备中，除了从翻译组小伙伴中选择符合条件的小伙伴，也在此对所有人开放，如果您是一笔或者同等翻译能力，可以联系小编（VX:396196827）加入翻译课筹备组，进群后，我们还将进行统一的翻译测试进行筛选，通过后成立翻译课正式小组，最后再次感谢大家。

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | The absent student

https://www.economist.com/node/21790444?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | The trouble with TINA

https://www.economist.com/node/21790445?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | More hard questions

https://www.economist.com/node/21790452?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | More hard questions

https://www.economist.com/node/21790452?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | More hard questions

https://www.economist.com/node/21790452?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

经济学人逝者 || 一个村庄的传说

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491311&idx=1&sn=05f32ba42dda8b33be6fecdef1ab00ae&chksm=fba04d48ccd7c45e21539ab6650877eefcf9b3c5fc453aa54b789ab61b12d32f625ec545c15e#rd

1

导读

休息一下......

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The tale of a village

一个村庄的传说

英文部分选自经济学人20200801期逝者版块

Obituary: László Bogdán

逝者：拉斯洛·保丹

The tale of a village

一个村庄的传说

László Bogdán, mayor of Cserdi, died on July 14th, aged 46

切尔迪村长拉斯洛·保丹于7月14日逝世，年仅46岁

Along the walls of his office in Cserdi, a village of around 350 souls in the gentle hills of southern Hungary, László Bogdán strung several clothes lines. Pegged to them were hundreds of messages written to “Laci”, as they called him: “People are good!” “Our parents have work”. “We have a good mayor”.

切尔迪是一个位于匈牙利南部平缓丘陵地带的村庄，大约有350人。拉斯洛·保丹的办公室就在这里，他在办公室的墙上挂了几根晾衣绳，夹在晾衣绳上的是写给“拉奇”（村民对保丹的称呼）的几百条留言：“人们过得很好！”“我们的父母有工作。”“我们有个好村长”。

These were the voices of the villagers, who since his election as mayor in 2006 had seen their world transformed. Cserdi had once been strewn with rubble and dilapidated houses, with idle, jobless men brawling outside. Petty crime was rampant: up to 300 cases a year, with neighbouring villages terrorised. Now everything was orderly. The houses were neat, and many had gained bathrooms. Small parks had appeared. Out in the fields women worked with hoes, and men with spades, to plant potatoes or dig wells. Four giant plastic greenhouses sheltered crops of peppers and tomatoes. In a good year the village could produce 160,000kg of quality vegetables, with the surplus going to the poor of the county. Officials from far and wide came to inspect this “Cserdi miracle”. But Mayor Laci, pacing up and down with his purple scarf knotted fashionably round his neck, was still dissatisfied. Was it really so special, so exotic, to see Gypsies working?

这些都是村民的心声。自他2006年当选村长以来，村民们见证了他们的世界发生了很大变化。切尔迪曾经一度到处是碎砖破瓦，房屋也破旧不堪，游手好闲的无业人员在屋外寻衅滋事。小型犯罪猖獗，每年多达300起，附近的村子也人心惶惶。但是现在一切都井然有序。房屋整齐排列，许多还加装了洗手间。村里还修建了小公园。在田里，女人荷锄、男人舞锹，种土豆或者是挖井。四个巨大的塑料温室大棚为辣椒和西红柿遮风避雨。丰年之时，村子可以生产16万公斤优质蔬菜，多余的蔬菜会分给该州的穷人。四面八方的官员都来观摩这个“切尔迪奇迹”。但是来回走动张罗的拉齐村长（围着紫色围巾，围巾打法时髦），却仍然不满意。看到吉普赛人工作，真的有那么特别、那么稀奇吗？

He spoke as one, a proud Cigány (he hated “Roma”), who revelled in garish shirts that emphasised his Gypsyness, and delivered his vegetables in a red Zsiguli car with a swinging rosary of the sort only Gypsies drove. He showed off Cserdi, where the population was three-quarters Gypsy, to prove that it could be as ordinary as anywhere else. But he knew it was not. The stereotype that most non-Gypsy Hungarians carried in their heads was all too often true: his people (“us”, not “they”, for his people’s sins were his, he took them on himself) were work-shy, cheated, stole, and lived on handouts if they

could. The jails were full of dark faces.

他言语间就是个骄傲的“茨戛尼人【译者注：匈牙利语，指匈牙利的吉普赛人】”（他讨厌“罗姆人”这个叫法），沉醉于能凸显他吉普赛本色的花衬衫。他开着只有吉卜赛人才开的挂有摇来摇去念珠的红色日古里车送蔬菜。切尔迪有四分之三的人口是吉普赛人，他对外宣扬切尔迪就是为了证明这里可以像任何其他地方一样平常。但他知道事实并非如此。大多数非吉普赛匈牙利人脑中固有的刻板印象通常也是符合事实的：他的人民（“我们”，不是“他们”，因为他的人民的罪过是他的罪过，他本人扛下了这些罪过）不愿工作、欺诈、偷窃，只要有可能便靠接济度日。监狱里也满是深肤色的面孔。

Of course, 600 years of history in Hungary had not been kind. Poverty and discrimination, fear of the Other, had stalked his people wherever they went. Under Communism everyone, including Gypsies, was meant to work. Yet it took his father some years to find a job as a miner. Until then, they lived in a shack; he had no shoes of his own until he was 13, and was sent down to scavenge for chewy, rotten meat in the pits where farmers threw the carcasses of their animals. His strongest childhood memory was hunger.

当然，吉普赛人在匈牙利的600年历史充满了艰辛。贫穷、歧视、对异族人的畏惧，无论吉普赛人去往哪里，它们都如影随形。在共产主义制度下，任何人——包括吉普赛人——本来都是要工作的。然而，他父亲花了好几年才找到一份当矿工的工作。在此之前，他们一家人住在一个棚屋里；直到13岁，他才拥有自己的第一双鞋。他被安排下到农民丢弃动物尸体的深坑里去找难嚼的腐肉。他最深刻的童年记忆是饥饿。

Yet that was no excuse to play the victim. He had never moaned, taking any job he could get after a few indifferent years of school: sweeping floors, packing monitors, eventually becoming production manager in a mobile-phone company. Here was the lesson for “all of us”: Gypsies had to work! If they took responsibility, gained self-respect, hauled themselves up by their bootlaces, prejudice might begin to fade away.

但是，他不愿以此为借口扮演受害者。他从不抱怨，在学校表现平平呆了几年后，他无论找到什么活都会去干：扫地、打包显示器，最终成为一家手机公司的生产经理。这是给“我们所有人”上的一课：吉普赛人必须工作！如果他们担起责任，拥有自尊，自力更生，对他们的偏见就可能会开始消失。

This was the task he set himself as mayor of Cserdi. It was heavy, but he set about it logically. Gypsies belonged nowhere, but if they got land, they could farm it. There was unused land in the village, a rubbish tip; once they had cleared away 15-20 lorryloads of rubble, they could plant potatoes. They then rented 1,200 hectares more. As the enterprise grew, he directed everything. A national public-work scheme provided small wages, but enough. Each day the villagers would gather round him to get their tools and his firm, straight instructions: where they should dig a well, exactly how big it should be, when they should move the paprika plants from the greenhouse. He reminded them what share of their harvest they had promised to give to others, to make them proud: they were givers now, not stealers, not spongers. Then he would wield his spade beside them, getting his hands dirty and urging them on.

这是他作为切尔迪村长时为自己定下的任务。任务很重，但是他施行得有条不紊。吉普赛人居无定所，但是如果有了土地，他们就能耕种。村子里有块没被有效利用的土地，一个垃圾堆；一旦清除掉15到20卡车的碎石之后，他们就能种土豆。然后，他们又租了1200多公顷的土地。随着改造大业的发展，他事无巨细都要亲自指导。一项全国公共工作计划提供了不多的工资，但也足够。每天，村民们都会聚集到他身边，取工具、听指令。他的指令直接干脆：包括在哪挖井，挖多大的井，何时该把红辣椒苗移出温室。他会提醒村民，他们已经承诺要将收成的多少送给别人，为的是让村民感到骄傲：现如今，他们已是给予者，不是小偷或寄生虫。接下来，他会和村民一起挥起铁锹劳动，以身作则敦促村民。

The agriculture project was only part of what he was doing in Cserdi. He took village boys to the local jail in Pécs, to show them that if they broke the law they could expect to be buggered there; it shocked them so deeply that crime in the village fell to almost nothing. Teenage girls were taken to universities; would they rather be there at 18, he asked them, or lying on their backs in the wretched local labour ward? Every household’s budget came under his watchful eye, and he would pick through their rubbish too, finding the cigarette packets and beer bottles that proved they were wasting money. He barely had time for girlfriends, certainly not family. The villagers were all his children.

农业项目仅是他在切尔迪的部分工作。他将村里的男孩带到佩奇当地的一所监狱，让他们知道如果他们犯法就会在那里被鸡奸。男孩们吓得不轻，从此村子里的犯罪活动也几乎绝迹。他将十多岁的女孩们带到大学，问她们18岁时是愿意在那里读书，还是仰躺在当地条件恶劣的产房里生孩子？家家户户的开销都逃不过他警觉的眼睛，他也会翻看村民丢弃的垃圾，如果发现烟盒和啤酒瓶，说明这户人家在乱花钱。他几乎没时间找女朋友，更不用说成家了。村民都是他的孩子。

Outside the village, he had enemies. He wanted to see Gypsies integrated and living like other Hungarians, for he was proud of being Hungarian too; he dreamed of dark faces in advertisements, his food in national stores, colour-blind political parties and the money that was spent on self-serving, wasteful Roma minority councils spent, instead, on greenhouses. This didn’t suit those who still wanted to be victims. Others felt that his constant reminders of bad Gypsy ways simply fed the stereotype: he was a self-hater, racist to his own skin. One way and another, he had learned to watch his back when he crossed the road.

在村外，他有树敌。他想看到吉普赛人融入主流社会、像其他匈牙利人一样生活，因为他也以自己的匈牙利人身份为荣；他希望深肤色的面孔出现在广告上，希望他的食物出现在全国的商店里，希望政治团体不会种族歧视，也希望那些花在一心谋私利、挥霍无度的罗姆人少数族裔委员会身上的钱能被改为用在温室修建上。这不符合那些仍想扮演受害者的人的心意。其他敌人则认为，他不断提到吉普赛人不好的方面，简直就是在向人们灌输有关吉普赛人的刻板印象：说他是个自我仇视者，是歧视自身肤色的种族歧视者。反正，他已经学会在过马路的时候都得小心提防。

Some thought he might make a good Roma leader on the national stage. But he did not want that label. He cared about other minorities too, even inviting migrants—who were hated more than Gypsies now—to come to Cserdi in 2017. Besides, he had no interest in being a “celebrity bastard”. He disliked talking about himself. He was just a semi-literate “scattered soul” who was trying to make his mark on the world, and was doing it in Cserdi. There, his ambitions were still growing. The “Romburgers” the villagers were making for local restaurants were taking off nicely. He was going to produce a range of Gypsy stews in the new processing plant, built with state and eu funds and almost finished. But it was there, on July 14th, that he hanged himself.

有人认为他或许能在国家政治舞台上塑造出一个优秀的罗姆族裔领导人形象。但他并不喜欢这个标签。他也关心其他少数民族，甚至在2017年邀请了如今比吉普赛人更不受待见的移民群体来到切尔迪。除此之外，他也无意成为“混蛋名人”。他不喜欢谈论自己。他只是个文化程度不高的“流散的灵魂”，试图在世上留下一点印记，他也正在切尔迪这么做。在那里，他的雄心壮志仍在增长。村民们为当地餐馆制作的“罗姆汉堡”市场前景良好。他打算在新建的食品加工场制作一系列吉普赛炖菜。这个加工厂受本国和欧盟的资金援助得以兴建，几乎已经完工。但就是在那里，在七月十四号，他自缢而亡。

He had given no hint of this before. Or perhaps only one: he had admitted that he cried every day, not because he was afraid, but because he felt powerless to do all that had to be done.

事发前他没有显露过自杀倾向，或者说也许只有一丝征兆：他曾承认他每天都会哭，不是因为他害怕，而是对所要完成的那些工作感到力不从心。

In a well-known Hungarian story, two Gypsies were haggling over the price of a horse. As they argued, the horse galloped fast towards a brick wall. “Your horse is blind!” complained the would-be buyer. “Not blind,” said the seller. “Brave.”

seller. “Brave.”

有个广为人知的匈牙利故事，里面讲到两个吉普赛人在为一匹马讨价还价。当他们争论不休时，马突然飞奔向一堵砖墙。“你这匹马是瞎的！”潜在买主抱怨道。“不是瞎，”卖家说：“这是勇敢。” 

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

校对组：

Sheri，坚信可以forever young的老年人

Qianna，追求专业的非英专，很讲逻辑，英伦摇滚迷
Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Mona，悦读悦译，以译会友

又见勇者

确认过眼神，本期讣告主是满满正能量的一个人。看完也不难理解为何他能登上ET的讣告栏。这个可爱的灵魂，对自己要求太高了一些。我们芸芸众生，能在世上留下足迹的不多。能勇于跳脱现实，着手改变的人，都是勇者，都值得尊敬。尤其结尾的小故事，点出作者对人物的评价：勇敢的人才敢于撞南墙。

记得前一阵看完《选择》（The Choice）写过一篇书评，称那是一个关于勇者的故事，作者年界耄耋，依然在勇敢地选择，选择放下自责，放下过往，选择心灵的自由。印象最深的是结尾那句，“My precious, you can choose to be free.”多么希望本期讣告的主人翁能看到这句，那样或许他的生命不会戛然而止，他的勇气会照亮更多人的生活，改变更多偏见。

没有人生而坚强，总是有些情事，有些际遇，让他们不得不如此。这些人肯定也会发现以受害者自居、寄生虫般的生活要“容易”得多，不用去承担责任，不用费劲争取什么，浑浑噩噩，一切随天命。然而，总有一些人，比如《呐喊》的鲁迅先生，比如文中的这位村长，他们勇敢地站出来，要走少有人走的路，打破这乌烟瘴气的旧世界，让新鲜空气进来。种菜不仅让村民有活干，自给自足之余，还把菜送人，改变了不劳而获的固有形象，还实现了吉普赛人从施受者到施与者的角色蜕变。似乎是冥冥之中有种守恒原理，勇气带给别人的越多，勇者内心越容易脆弱。读鲁迅给许广平的信，那分明是个内心敏感有些忧郁气质的男子，被反对者攻击病倒好几回，他最英勇的一面都留在写给青年的文章里。村长似乎也过于关注以天下为己任，自己的情感却无暇也无处安放。然越是勇敢的人，越要学会与自己讲和，否则过度消耗，挤压到支撑自己的那点力量都没有了，殊为可惜。

勇者的逻辑，有时就是“Because I can！”可以折腾，为什么要碌碌无为呢？万一能闯出啥成就呢？输了嘛，也很正常，谁还没输过呢！？让人想起二战中，丘吉尔在英国明显不敌希特勒强大德军的情况下，仍执意抵抗，坚决不降，他遵循的也是勇者的逻辑。希特勒一直希望丘吉尔低头谈和，而丘吉尔坚持誓死抵抗，血战到底，求万一之胜机，他把自己这种勇气和决心通过多次演讲传达给英国民众，从而带动他们坚强地撑到最后，迎来胜利。

    本文中的村长肩负重塑吉普赛人形象的重任，每日都会哭。无独有偶，如《灿烂与邪恶》（The Splendid and the Vile）中所述，二战中的丘吉尔也经常热泪盈眶，全书中“weep”这个词出现的频率不下十次。临危受命当选首相后，在大街上遇到民众支持和祝福，丘吉尔哭了，为他们如此信任他，而自己将让大家遭受战乱之苦而哭；法国舰队拒绝了英军提供的选择，为阻止舰船为德军征用，英军不得不将其舰艇炸沉时，丘吉尔哭了，为了那些即将牺牲的法国将士而哭；视察遭受德军炮弹空袭的街区时，他又哭了，为自己无法保护那些民众而哭；给孙子小温士顿洗礼后的宴会上他哭了，为小小的人儿要面对这么个战乱的世界而哭……讣告中没有提村长哭的原因，留给我们去猜测。不过，两相对照，勇者的哭，大概只是一种情感的宣泄，是心理的缓冲，为再一次鼓起勇气做准备。

改写历史的永远是勇者。感谢勇者来过，留下印记。愿我们都能成为勇者。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人文艺 || 发现寻常之美

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491303&idx=1&sn=822a192465fe9df9f629cfdf981c122a&chksm=fba04d40ccd7c45637571556b3038980399c1b64f0c3b0e04253b5a3649ac58ffa63589b5a6a#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
Jennie，女，MTI低才生，社会学爱好者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 Finding beauty in ordinary things

发现寻常之美

英文部分选自经济学人20200801期文艺版块

Ways of seeing

观察方式

Attention Pays

留心有益

Finding beauty in ordinary things

发现寻常之美

The Japanese aesthetic of mingei is a consolation during lockdown

日本民艺美学是疫情隔离期间的一种慰藉

扩展阅读：柳宗悦和柳宗理的民艺与设计·

http://www.360doc33.net/articlenew.aspx?id=857315902

Mingei: 民艺运动，“简朴、实用、耐久”是日本设计的基础理论，贯穿了整个1920年代的民艺运动（Mingei）.

The bowl is small enough to balance in the palm of your hand. It is deep enough for tofu, but too shallow for soup. A ghostly white glaze, translucent in the right light, covers the surface. These clay walls are its maker’s gallery. A lone blue figure fills the centre of the bowl, his face a blank oval with a whiskery beard. His spine curves along the same arc as the rim.

这个碗很小，用手掌心就能稳稳托住。可以用来盛豆腐，但若要盛汤，还是太浅了。它的表面覆着幽幽的白釉，在合适的光照下显出半透明的模样。这些粘土墙是制作者的画廊。碗底中央画了一张蓝色的男子单人像，脸呈椭圆形，面无表情，留着络腮胡，脊背弯度与碗沿的弧度一致。

At the Nihon Mingeikan (Japan Folk Crafts Museum) in Tokyo, visitors find little by way of description or context alongside this artefact or the hundreds of other simple ceramics, textiles and crafts on display. Yanagi Soetsu, the museum’s founder, believed that nothing should distract from the beauty of the objects. For Yanagi, a prolific writer and collector, “miscellaneous things represent the most original of Japanese arts.” He and two potters, Hamada Shoji (who made the plates in the picture) and Kawai Kanjiro, dubbed these wares mingei, a neologism fusing the characters for “the masses” and “crafts”.

在东京的日本民艺馆，这件藏品和展出的其他数百件简朴的瓷器、纺织品和工艺品一样，参观者几乎找不到任何描述和简介。民艺馆创立者柳宗悦（Yanagi Soetsu）认为，展品本身的美不应有任何干扰。作为一个多产的作家和成果丰硕的收藏家，柳宗悦认为“各式各样的物品是日本艺术最本真模样的代表”。他与滨田庄司（Hamada Shoji）（画中盘子的制作者）和河井宽次郎（Kawai Kanjiro）两位陶瓷艺术家将这些器物称为“民艺”（Mingei)，这是一个结合了“大众”和“手工艺”特点的新词。

注：

柳宗悦（Yanagi Soetsu，单姓柳，1889-1961），日本著名民艺理论家、美学家。被誉为“民艺之父”。著有《工匠自我修养》《民艺论》《工艺之道》《日本手工艺》等书，均有中文版。1957年获日本政府授予的“文化功劳者”荣誉称号，“民艺”一词的创造者。本段提及的滨田庄司和河井宽次郎均为其终生好友。

Over several decades from the 1910s, he amassed a collection of more than 17,000 such pieces from around Japan and its expanding empire, which became the foundation of the Mingeikan. By the time Yanagi died in 1961, mingei had entered the language. His ideas left an enduring mark on Japanese design, visible today in the fashion stylings of Issey Miyake and the popular homeware sold by the retailer Muji. At a time when people everywhere find themselves confined to familiar surroundings, his attentive way of looking at the world is a salutary consolation.

在1910年之后的几十年间，柳宗悦在日本国内和逐渐扩张的日本帝国势力范围内一点点收集工艺品，总计超过17000件，奠定了日本民艺馆的基础。柳宗悦于1961年去世，那时“民艺”一词已经在日文中经常出现了。去世后，他的理念仍深深影响着日本设计风格，无论是三宅一生（Issey Miyake）设计的时尚服装，还是无印良品（Muji）出品、广受欢迎的家具，都可见一斑。现在，世界各地的人们不得不待在家中，用柳宗悦细心观察的方式观察世界就成为了一剂良药。

注：

三宅一生（Issey Miyake）和无印良品（Muji）都是日本时尚设计品牌，前者专注于服装设计，后者专注于零售行业。

Mingei encompasses all manner of everyday things, from clothing and furniture to utensils and stationery. These objects, Yanagi wrote, are “deeply embedded in the life of ordinary people”. They stand in contrast to aristocratic fine arts and eschew needless decoration. Works of mingei are crafted with quotidian use and owners in mind; they are typically the handmade creations of anonymous artisans possessing “unconscious grace”. In the parlance of the pandemic, mingei might be called the essential workers of the material world: “Since these utilitarian objects have a commonplace task to perform, they are dressed, so to speak, in modest wear and lead quiet lives,” Yanagi wrote. “They work thoughtlessly and unselfishly, carrying out effortlessly and inconspicuously whatever duty comes their way.”

民艺包罗万象，涵盖了日常物品从服饰、家具到器皿、文具的方方面面。柳宗悦写道：“这些物品与民众生活密不可分。”它们摒弃无用的装饰，与贵族艺术形成鲜明对比。民艺品打造时多考虑日常使用，忠于使用者的需求，通常由拥有“不经意的优雅”的佚名工匠手工制造。在新冠肺炎大流行的背景下，民艺可以被称为物质世界的关键劳动者。柳宗悦还写道：“因为这些平凡的物品都得满足日常使用，所以它们装饰简朴、造型低调。它们埋着头、无私地发挥功能，轻松低调地满足需要。”

Yanagi sought to identify and celebrate the functional beauty of these overlooked items. He believed that defining beauty purely in visual terms, to the exclusion of practicality, was mistaken. “Our aesthetic sense has been severely impaired owing to the fact that beauty and life are treated as separate realms of being,” he argued. Yet this did not mean extolling any old (or new) thing. For Yanagi, objects made with vulgar colouring, shoddy materials and thoughtless forms were not simply eyesores, but “amoral and unethical”. Like the Arts and Crafts movement in Britain which it followed, mingei was in part a response to mechanisation, setting out to elevate older methods over mass production.

人们常常忽视实用之物，而柳宗悦试图寻找并颂扬其功能之美。他认为，单纯从视觉角度来定义美而不考虑实用性，是错误的。在他看来，“由于美和生活被被分割看待，我们的审美观已经严重受损”。然而，这并不代表赞美所有旧的（或新的）事物。在柳宗悦眼里，那些颜色庸俗、材质低劣、设计草率的物品不仅刺眼，更是“不道德的”。与其所追随的英国工艺美术运动一样，民艺运动在某种程度上是对机械化的回应，旨在提升传统生产的价值，而非强调规模化生产。

注：

1. 艺术和手工艺运动（Arts and Crafts movement）主要起源于19世纪的英国。其产生的背景是：工业革命以后大批量工业化生产以及维多利亚时期崇尚繁琐装饰的理念，使得当时的设计水准急剧下降。工艺美术运动意在抵制这一趋势而重建手工艺的价值，要求制造出“艺术家中的工匠”或者“工匠中的艺术家”。它的特点包括：1、强调手工艺生产，反对机械化生产；2、在装饰上反对矫揉造作的维多利亚风格和其他各种古典、传统的复兴风格；3、提倡哥特风格和其他中世纪风格，讲究 简单朴实；4、主张设计诚实，反对风格上华而不实；5、提倡自然主义风格和东方风格。

2. 扩展知识：艺术与手工艺运动

https://www.britannica.com/art/Arts-and-Crafts-movement

Eye of the holder

持有者的看法

Born in Tokyo in 1889 to a family of Meiji-era naval officers, Yanagi’s intellectual life began in the Shirakaba (White Birch) group, a collective of writers and thinkers who explored Western art and literature in their eponymous journal. Yanagi wrote on topics ranging from Tolstoy to Rodin to William Blake. He befriended the English ceramicist Bernard Leach, who would first render Yanagi’s thoughts into English in “The Unknown Craftsman” (published in 1972). A collection of his essays that was recently released as “The Beauty of Everyday Things” is the second widely available English-language volume of his work.

柳宗悦在1889年（明治时代）出生于东京的一个海军军官家庭。他的智者生涯始于加入白桦派，这是一个由作家和思想家组成的团体，在同名杂志（《白桦》）上探讨西方艺术与文学。柳宗悦的文章涵盖了托尔斯泰、罗丹、威廉·布莱克等一系列广泛题材。他与英国陶艺家伯纳德•利奇（Bernard Leach)结为好友，而利奇在其1972年出版的《无名工匠》一书中，首次将柳宗悦的思想译成英文。最近出版的文集《物与美》（The Beauty of Everyday Things）则是第二本广为流传的柳宗悦作品英文版书籍。

扩展知识：白桦派：日本现代文学中的重要流派之一，以创刊于1910年的文艺刊物《白桦》为中心的作家与美术家形成。

他们主张新理想主义为文艺思想的主流，因此也称为新理想派。该派的作家主要有武者小路实笃、有岛武郎、有岛生马、志贺直哉、木下利玄、长与善郎等人。受白桦派的影响而成长起来的日本知名人士有剧作家仓田百三、诗人千家元等。

Like many of his peers, Yanagi’s interests drifted towards questions of cultural identity. How should the East assert itself in response to the West? What was Japan’s relationship with the rest of the region? What made Japanese culture distinctive? An encounter with Korean ceramics in 1914 led to his interest in folk crafts. He spent years collecting and promoting Korean work, ultimately opening a small museum in Seoul. His engagement with the crafts of Japan’s colonies led him to speak out against the Japanese empire’s assimilationist and expansionist policies in both Korea and Okinawa, another important venue for his collecting. In “A Letter to My Korean Friends”, written amid a crackdown on Korean independence movements in 1919, Yanagi lamented that “Japan does not yet fully possess a human heart.”

和很多同辈人一样，柳宗悦对文化认同的问题产生了兴趣，譬如：面对西方，东方该如何坚持自己的主张？日本与东方其他国家的关系如何？日本文化缘何与众不同？1914年，与朝鲜李朝瓷器的一次偶然邂逅引起了柳宗悦对民间工艺品的兴趣。在那之后，他花费数年时间，收集并推广朝鲜工艺品，并最终在汉城建立了一座小型美术馆。他潜心研究日本殖民地区的工艺品，由此公然抗议日本帝国在朝鲜和冲绳（他收藏工艺品的另一个重要地点）实行的同化主义和扩张主义政策。1919年，朝鲜民族独立运动遭到镇压期间，柳宗悦写下《致朝鲜友人书》，文中哀叹道：“日本尚未完全拥有悲悯之心。”

注：

1. 柳宗悦发现寻常之美

https://m.sohu.com/a/192113343_265568

2. 朝鲜民族独立运动：亦称朝鲜独立运动。1910年日本迫使大韩帝国（1897-1910）和日本签订《日朝合并条约》（日朝合并），朝鲜半岛成为日本的一部分，沦为日本的殖民地。从朝鲜被日本吞并到朝鲜半岛独立的过程中，一切朝鲜人民争取独立的行为都被视为朝鲜民族独立运动的一部分。

Yet for all his humanism and pacifism, his views could also be interpreted more darkly. In recent decades scholars have advanced a revisionist sense of mingei as a kind of cultural nationalism, an “oriental Orientalism” that became the aesthetic accompaniment to Japanese imperialism. Japanese ultranationalists found much to like in Yanagi’s promotion of the collective over the individual, his search for beauty among the masses, his championing of tradition and his quest for an essential Japaneseness. As Kim Brandt argues in “Kingdom of Beauty”, her study of mingei, “Government ideologues and propagandists embraced the arts and crafts of an idealised folk as a means of insisting on national, and also imperial, unity.” When, during the second world war, the American firebombing of Tokyo brought flames to the Mingeikan’s walls, Yanagi and his wife doused them with brooms and buckets of water, their son Yanagi Sori later recalled.

虽然柳宗悦倡导人文主义和反战主义，但是他的观点也可以有负面的阐释。最近几十年，有学者给民艺增加了一丝修正主义的意味，将其看作一种“文化民族主义”，即“东方的东方主义”，是伴随日本帝国主义而生的美学思想。柳宗悦提倡集体高于个人，乐于在普通大众中探寻美，同时拥护捍卫文化传统，不断追寻属于日本的最本质的东西。日本极端民族主义者部分采纳了他的很多观点。正如金·布兰特（Kim Brandt）在研究民艺的《美的王国》一书中所写：“政府的理论家和宣传者推崇理想化人民的艺术和工艺品，不过是要将其作为一种手段，来加强民族团结及帝国的统一”。二战期间，美国用燃烧弹轰炸东京时，民艺馆的墙垣也起了火。据儿子柳宗理（Yanagi Sori）之后回忆，父亲和母亲拿着扫帚、提着水桶，扑灭了民艺馆墙上的火焰。

Sori helped give mingei a second life through his work as a pioneering industrial designer. His iconic pieces, such as his graceful butterfly stool, fused a European modernist training with his father’s mingei spirit. Sori saw an overlap with the Bauhaus movement in mingei’s emphasis on function over form, and, in its belief in the craftsman’s unconscious intimation of beauty, with Surrealism.

柳宗理作为一名工业设计的先驱人物，让民艺焕发了第二次生命。他的标志性作品，例如优雅的蝴蝶凳，将欧洲现代主义设计思想与父亲的民艺精神融合在一起。在他看来，民艺强调功能胜过形式，这一点与包豪斯运动不谋而合，而追求工匠不经意流露出的美，从这里又可以看到超现实主义的影子。

扩展阅读：包豪斯运动，影响了整个世界。

http://www.360doc33.net/articlenew.aspx?id=706472716

After his father’s death, Sori took over as the Mingeikan’s director, inspiring a generation of designers to seek models in mingei. Today there are dozens of affiliated mingei museums in Japan. Martha Longenecker, an American potter, founded the Mingei International Museum in San Diego in the 1970s. Sori’s successor as director of the Mingeikan, the designer Fukasawa Naoto, is himself evidence of mingei’s enduring influence. Mr Fukasawa had a hand in Muji’s designs for suitcases, chairs, lamps, kettles and much else, aiding the firm’s rise to global prominence. Its goods, he says, are examples of “modern-day mingei”. (The name Muji means “no brand”.)

父亲去世后，柳宗理接任日本民艺馆馆长，激励了一代设计师参考民艺作品。如今，日本有数十家附属民艺博物馆。美国陶艺家玛莎·朗格纳克（Martha Longenecker）于20世纪70年代在圣地亚哥成立了民艺国际博物馆。柳宗理的继任者是设计师深泽直人（Fukasawa Naoto），他本人就深受民艺的影响。深泽先生参与设计了无印良品的手提箱、椅子、灯、水壶等产品，助力该公司在全球范围内的崛起。他表示，无印的产品就是“现代民艺”的典范。（无印良品意为“无品牌的好物品”。）

Mingei involves approaching the world with a heightened awareness of the objects that fill everyday lives. Yanagi urges you to ponder the coffee mug that fuels endless Zoom meetings with the same intensity as you contemplate a Cézanne (whose work he once hung in the reception room of the Mingeikan). “Today, when everything is trending toward the frail and sickly, the beauty we see in these common objects is both a blessing and a joy,” he wrote with eerie resonance. He asks people, in short, to appreciate what is under their noses.

民艺还包含以高度重视日常物品的方式感知世界。柳宗悦鼓励你像思考塞尚的作品一样（他曾把塞尚的作品挂在民艺馆的会客厅里），去思索那个支撑你度过无休止Zoom会议的咖啡马克杯。带着难以言说的共鸣感，他写道：“如今，当世界日趋脆弱，我们在这些日常物品中看到的美感既是福祉、也是乐趣。” 简而言之，他要求人们好好欣赏眼前的事物。

Take the humble face mask. Your correspondent’s is sewn out of tan cloth and patterned with fish. Its light-blue ear straps, now frayed, suggest the ocean. A blue mahi-mahi stretches its bulbous forehead over the crease of the nose. A silver tigerperch edges towards the ear. The yellow spines of a John Dory’s dorsal fin spread across the cheek, evoking the beard of the man in the bottom of the mingei bowl.

就拿平凡的口罩来说吧。你客户的口罩是用黄褐色的布料缝制的，上面绘有鱼形图案。已磨损的淡蓝色耳带象征着海洋。蓝色鲯鳅圆滚滚的头正好伸到了鼻子的褶皱处。靠近耳朵的部分绘有银色的虎斑鱼，两腮则画上海鲂鱼的黄色背鳍，不禁让人想起民艺碗底部的那一抹胡须。

注：

John Dory，海舫鱼

翻译组： 

Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿

Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩 

校核组：

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

今日的民艺馆外观

一、美

柳宗悦曾在书中写道，“我的生活一天也不能离开美的世界"。提到美丽的器具，人们联想起的，或许是超凡的奇物，又或是一些守旧传统的器具，为了避免这种易出现的错误联想，我要在此事上声明，民艺不是摆放在壁龛上，为华美的房间增加意趣，而是出现在厨房里，散置在起居间的各种器皿。民艺的美在于淡泊。其意为“寻常之美”。与用于鉴赏的美术品不同，民艺以生活为目的。可为何长期以来，人们忽视寻常器具之美呢？甚至，傍晚的日落，晨间的朝霞，窗边的莺声婉转，这些寻常之美，我们常常忽视。所谓久居兰室不闻其香，习以为常则失审视之心。

“问渠哪得清如许？为有源头活水来”。发现美的生活就是有“源头活水”的生活。俗人迷于名利，与世浮沉，心里没有“天光云影”，就因为没有源头活水。对美的向往、追寻，让人不至于沦为机器。

   当今时代早已不同于过去，或许这会是万事万物最变幻不定的时期。在我们眼中，万物冲击人心。如同擦拭过的光洁如新的镜子，所有的一切都变得新鲜。我们慌忙得奔波于通勤路途，忙于工作学习，一心想着晋升和人生中的大小考试，却忽略了寻常之美。

况且，我们进入了一个美好的时代，在这个时代，我们必须辨明，什么是真正的美。现在是批判的时代，是意识苏醒的时代，我们赋予了担当审判者的职责，对时代的恩泽，我们不可辜负。

二、手工

民间艺术必定是手工艺术，除去神明外，最令人惊叹的，莫过于人们的双手了，与人手相比，无论怎样的机器也不够自由灵活。不幸的是，如今所有的手工作业都转移到了机器身上，在不久的将来，机器操作成为主流，那时候我们看到过去的人们亲手创作的奇迹，大概会更难以置信吧。当然，机器也能创造某种美，我们不能厌弃机器制造的方式，但是，这种美是受限的，单一的机器制造只能带来闭塞的美。创造出来的物品冰冷、浅薄、毫无感情。真正的韵味与丰盈，是从人手中诞生的，打造出雅致感与灵魂，琢磨痕迹、刀工、笔势走向，试问这些机器怎可做到？机器做的只是循规蹈矩，而非创造。有了人的双手，美就会带上温度，得到升华。民艺的光芒也会随着时光的流转，与日俱增。

这正如我们今日所讲的工匠精神，同样，这种精神在工业化浪潮的洗礼下，渐渐地缺失了。在相当长一段时间内，人们对于工匠的认知是矮化的，人们认为他们单调、重复，认为他们在做一些拙劣的工作，甚至，认为他们的执着毫无价值。但当我们把作品拿出来看，我们发现，工匠用他们的双手，他们的汗，他们的血，甚至生命来铸造一个又一个物件。藏族绘画大师罗布斯达曾经在修复布达拉宫壁画时，因为担心打开灯光，壁画会氧化，于是，在伸手不见五指的洞穴里，他点燃了一根蜡烛，一笔一笔地修复，即使视力减退，几乎看不到了，他从未想过放弃。再看民艺的创始人柳宗悦，即便是工艺设计，他也从未放弃手工，在他的工作室里，设计产品绝不靠图纸，而是必须手作模型。他从未忘记，将美还给民众的使命。机械或许可以超越现在的工艺水平，但是工匠的光芒，永不可攀。

无论是民艺，还是工匠精神，我们看到了什么？坚守、执着、寂寞。这正是这个时代需要的。做“差不多”先生，永远赢不了。每一个细节都不能放弃。从粗制滥造到大国制造，或许只隔了一个工匠精神的距离。

三、纯粹

在过去，人们很少通过炫技来制造充满新意的艺术品，然而随着时代的变迁，人们开始在创作时越来越多地加入繁杂的技巧，由此创作出来的作品，或许足够精巧细致，但抹杀了美的本质——纯粹。殊不知，打磨与雕琢若参杂太多人的欲望，会为手上的作品套上枷锁。柳宗悦认为，器物有着自然的加护，器物之美便是自然之美”。民艺的诞生是效力于人们的生活，而非争誉扬名，正如劳动者不会在修建的道路上刻名一般，美术作品是极少数天才创作家的个人成就，而所有的器具都是出自籍籍无名的普通人，是凡夫俗子，芸芸众生。他们无欲无求的心，让器具的美更加纯粹。

佛教徒常常以“无佛法”自持，这是因为若陷入佛法，便有可能作茧自缚，拘泥于信仰，最后落得惨淡收场。加缪笔下得西西弗斯攀登过程是存粹的，他对生命是热爱的，他离开山顶得每个瞬息，他渐渐潜入诸神洞穴得每分每秒，都超越了自己的命运，他比所推的石头更坚强。攀登山顶的拼搏本身足以充实一颗人心，应当想象，西西弗斯是幸福的。阿甘是纯粹的，他的爱如此纯粹，对待生活亦如是。他只知道，做自己喜欢做的事情，成为真正的自己。他的每一个选择看似荒诞，却是自己真正所爱。

要有那种选择自己所爱得力量，且不掺杂念，坚持下去。我们亦要热爱生活，不忘记自己做每件事的初心，永远追随自己的内心。重视追寻的过程，纯粹地做最简单的自己，即使有一天被脚下碎石绊倒，也可以满怀热诚，爬起来继续追逐自己梦想。

同时，我们也没有必要将梦想和现实对立，借用著名导演刁亦男的一句话：成熟的人可以为了梦想卑微的活着，而不成熟的人会为了梦想英勇的死去。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人财经 || SPAC的奇袭

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491293&idx=1&sn=123db1365d73ab3d30c369918c2f6296&chksm=fba04d7accd7c46c6f252b893d0b9a14ff4fa5bd5102b7a811423bea43507c046606df083f6f#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The SPAC hack

SPAC的奇袭

英文部分选自经济学人20200801期Finance版块

The SPAC hack

SPAC的奇袭

The latest twist in the power struggle between Silicon Valley and Wall Street

硅谷与华尔街的权力之战迎来最新较量

注：

SPAC：SPAC stands for Special-Purpose Acquisition Company, which is a company created specifically to pool funds in order to finance a merger or acquisition opportunity within a set timeframe, usually two years. SPACs are sometimes referred to as corporate shells or blank-check companies. They have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company with the proceeds that were raised from the SPAC’s initial public offering. The SPACs are currently sold in $10 units which includes of one share of common stock and one or more out of the money warrants or a fraction of a warrant. The units, stocks, and warrants usually start trading on either the NYSE or NASDAQ.

SPAC为特殊目的收购公司，是一个由共同基金、对冲基金等募集资金而组建上市的“空壳公司”，这个“空壳公司”只有现金，没有任何其他业务。发起人将这个“空壳公司”在纳斯达克或纽交所上市，并以投资单元形式发行普通股与认股期权组合给市场投资者从而募集资金。这个“空壳公司”上市后的仅有的一个任务就是寻找一家有着高成长发展前景的非上市公司，与其合并，使其获得融资并上市。通常如果24个月内没有完成并购，那么这个SPAC就将面临清盘，将所有托管账户内的资金附带利息100%归还给投资者。

In an episode of “The Phil Silvers Show”, a 1950s tv comedy, Ernie Bilko (played by Silvers) discovers that his fellow army sergeants have fleeced a new recruit in a poker game. His plan to get the money back involves leasing a shop. “It’s just an empty store,” he insists. The others fear they are missing out. “When the smartest operator in the whole United States army suddenly decides to rent a store, we don’t ask no questions,” says one. “We just want to be cut in.”

20世纪50年代电视情景喜剧《菲尔·西尔弗斯秀》中的一个片段，厄尼·比尔科（Ernie Bilko，由西尔弗斯饰演）发现他的军士同仁们在一场扑克游戏中敲了一名新兵的竹杠。他计划通过租赁一家店铺把那些钱都拿回来。虽然他坚称“这只是一家空店”，但其他人生怕自己会错失了什么，其中一人说，“当全美军队中最聪明的经营者突然决定出租一家店铺时，我们不会问任何问题，我们只想一起参与。”

注：

1. The Phil Silvers Show：originally titled You'll Never Get Rich, is a sitcom which ran on CBS from 1955 to 1959. 美国著名喜剧演员菲尔·西尔弗主演的情景喜剧，曾连续三届获得艾美奖最佳喜剧系列奖。

2. sergeant：中士、警官

3. fleece：If you fleece someone, you get a lot of money from them by tricking them or charging them too much. 诈骗 [非正式]

4. miss out：If you miss out on something that would be enjoyable or useful to you, you are not involved in it or do not take part in it. 错失

An empty vessel can accommodate all manner of dreams. This trait helps explain the growing allure of the “special purpose acquisition company” (SPAC), a shell company listed on the stock exchange with a view to merging it with a real business. Ventures such as Virgin Galactic, in space tourism, and Nikola, in electric vehicles, have become listed companies by this route. Silicon Valley’s dream factory spies a way to sidestep the trials of an initial public offering (IPO). Bill Ackman, a shrewd hedge-fund manager, has just raised a $4bn mega-spac. He is looking for a unicorn to make a home in his empty store.

空荡荡的“容器”却可以承载各种梦想。这一特点有助于解释为何“特殊目的收购公司”(SPAC)的吸引力与日俱增，SPAC是旨在与真正实体企业合并的空壳上市公司。如太空旅游业的维珍银河(Virgin Galactic)、电动汽车业的尼可拉(Nikola)等创业公司均以该途径上市。硅谷的梦工厂找到了这种避开首次公开募股（IPO）的方法。精明的对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)刚刚筹集了40亿美元的巨型SPAC，正寻找一个愿意与其合并的独角兽企业。

注：

1. vessel：船，舰；[组织] 脉管，血管；容器，器皿

2. allure：The allure of something or someone is the pleasing or exciting quality that they have. 魅力

3. spy: 间谍，侦察，认出

4. sidestep：If you sidestep a problem, you avoid discussing it or dealing with it. 回避 (问题)

5. unicorn: Tech companies that reach a billion dollar fundraising valuation are now known as “unicorns.”The name was coined by venture capital firm Cowboy Ventures back in 2013 after it had tracked a decade's worth of US start-ups and their valuations. As it happened, the ultra-valuable start-ups were also ultra-rare – making up just 0.07 percent of all early-stage companies-- so they were given a nickname to match their rarity. 独角兽为神话传说中的一种生物，它稀有而且高贵。美国著名Cowboy Venture投资人Aileen Lee在2013年将私募和公开市场的估值超过10亿美元的创业公司做出分类，并将这些公司称为“独角兽”。

The view in Silicon Valley is that an IPO is a rotten process. There is typically a fixed fee, of up to 7% of the sum raised. And the value of the company is lowballed, say tech types, to allow for a satisfying first-day “pop” in the share price. Yet cost is not the only bugbear—and, perhaps, not even the main one. What entrepreneurs and their venture-capital backers hate about the IPO is the loss of control. They are used to being big shots in Silicon Valley. They do not like deferring to Wall Street types at all.

硅谷方认为IPO就是个馊主意。科技类公司称，IPO通常需要支付一笔最高可达募集资金总额7％的固定费用，并为了营造令人满意的首日股价“暴涨”还会故意报低公司价值。然而，成本并不是唯一令人头痛的问题，甚至不是最主要的问题。企业家和他们的风投们对IPO深恶痛绝的一点是他们并不能全权掌控。他们当惯了硅谷的大人物，并不乐意听从华尔街的意见。

注：
1. lowball 动词 to make a very low estimate or offer for (a service, product, company, etc) 向(服务、产品或公司)报低价

2. bugbear n. 怪物；棘手的难题；恐惧或烦恼的原因

3. big shots 可数名词 A big shot is an important and powerful person in a group or organization. (某一群体或组织里的)要人

Eg.He's a big shot in Chilean politics.

他是智利政界的一个大人物。

4. defer to 听从；尊重

An IPO is meant to be a young company’s coming of age. It can be more like a funeral: a distressing ordeal that leaves you at the mercy of those you put in charge of it. The problem lies with an asymmetry. For the firm going public, the IPO is a one-off. But not for the underwriting banks. They have a relationship with the people buying shares. It is natural for them to favour repeat customers. The bankers run the roadshow to build a book for the IPO. They control the allocation of shares. And crucially, they set the price. If the IPO goes well, the banks retain the right to issue more stock to “stabilise” the market—a valuable option, known as a greenshoe. This, complains a Silicon Valley bigwig, is a “rapacious practice”.

IPO本应标志着一家年轻的公司走向成熟。但事实上它却更像一场葬礼：一场让你任由负责人摆布的痛苦考验。问题在于不对称性。对于即将上市的公司来说，IPO是一次性的，但对于承销银行却非如此。他们与股票投资者有联系，青睐回头客也很正常。投行负责路演，以此为IPO编制账簿。他们也控制股票的分配，更重要的是，他们确定股票发行价。如果IPO进展顺利，银行将保留发行更多股票来稳定市场的权利，此为有价值的选择，俗称“绿鞋”。一位硅谷大佬抱怨称，这是贪婪之举。

注：

1. at the mercy of 受……支配

2. asymmetry 有变体名词 Asymmetry is the appearance that something has when its two sides or halves are different in shape, size, or style. 不对称

Eg. ...the asymmetry of Van de Velde's designs of this period.

...这一时期范•德•费尔德设计作品的不对称性。

3. one-off 可数名词 

You can refer to something as a one-off when it is made or happens only once. 一次性事物

Eg. Our survey revealed that these allergies were mainly one-offs.

我们的调查显示，这些过敏大多是一次性反应。

underwriting banks 承销银行

Eg. However, it is common for technology companies planning large IPOs to borrow money from the banks that are underwriting the share sale.

不过，计划进行大型首次公开募股（IPO）的科技公司向担任承销商的银行借钱是很普遍的现象。

4. greenshoe 绿鞋：一般指“绿鞋机制”，“绿鞋机制”也叫绿鞋期权（Green Shoe Option or Over-Allotment Option），是指根据中国证监会2006年颁布的《证券发行与承销管理办法》第48条规定：“首次公开发行股票数量在4亿股以上的，发行人及其主承销商可以在发行方案中采用超额配售选择权”。这其中的“超额配售选择权”就是俗称绿鞋机制。该机制可以稳定大盘股上市后的股价走势，防止股价大起大落。

5. rapacious 形容词 

6. If you describe a person or their behaviour as rapacious, you disapprove of their greedy or selfish behaviour. 贪婪的

Eg. ...a rapacious exploitation policy.

...一项贪婪的剥削政策。

Enter the SPAC, which is a sort of pre-cooked IPO. A shell company is set up by a sponsor. The SPAC is listed on the stock exchange via an IPO. The sponsor then finds a private business for the SPAC to acquire with the proceeds. Typically this will be a late-stage (ie, fairly mature) private company, whose owners and venture-capital backers are looking to cash out. The private company merges with the SPAC, following a shareholder vote. It is then a public company.

进入SPAC，即完成IPO。赞助人先设立一家空壳公司。SPAC随即通过IPO在证券交易所上市。接着发起人通过SPAC（由IPO发行）所获得的资金，收购一家私人企业。通常来说，该私人公司也早已处于在一个相当成熟的投资后期阶段，其所有者和风险投资人也亟需套现。因此双方一拍即合，经过股东投票决议后，私人公司与SPAC合并。最后，它便摇身成为一家上市公司。

You can see the appeal for Silicon Valley. There is no roadshow, no ploughing through the same slide-deck ten times a day for a fortnight. It all takes much less time. That is handy in the present circumstances, when venture-capital firms need to get cash-burning unicorns off the books. Because this is a merger, and not an IPO, the selling firm can disclose more information to the buyer, including financial projections. The price is negotiated directly with the buyer—and after the money has been raised, not before. And it is all but certain, rather than at the mercy of the changing moods in the stockmarket, or a last-minute discount imposed by the bankers to sweeten the deal for favoured clients.

SPAC对硅谷的吸引力由此可见。无需每天路演，无需半个月每天埋头苦读十遍同一份PPT。通过SPAC上市节省了太多的时间。在当前的市场环境下，风投急于将烧钱的独角兽公司从投资账本上清零，SPAC不失为一个避繁就简的选择。因为通过SPAC仅为公司之间的并购，而非IPO，卖方公司可以向买方公司披露更多的信息，包括财务预测。价格也可以在融资后与买方直接商谈，而非在融资之前。无需受到变幻无常的股票市场情绪摆布，无需经历银行家们为了讨好客户，而在发行的最后关头将发行价大打折扣，这种方式所带来的的确定性无可比拟。

注：

1. plough: (V) 耕耘；犁地；plough through 指埋头苦干，艰难的进行/推进

2. slide-deck: PPT , sales deck 销售文档（给客户展示产品用的PPT）

A PowerPoint slide deck is simply a collection of slides put together in the same presentation. You'll hear "slide deck" used somewhat interchangeably with "presentation." Like a deck of cards, each slide is a key part of the overall package.

sweeten: （v）讨好

There is a downside, of course. Fees are unavoidable. Sponsors are typically paid with a 20% stake in the SPAC. This is in essence an indirect charge on the acquired firm. It is not obviously cheaper than an IPO. In principle the sponsor can dilute his effective “fee” by, for instance, co-ordinating another round of capital-raising from private-equity or hedge funds at the time of the merger. A few sponsors might inspire a halo effect, increasing the share price just by association. Investors will not question a really big name; they just want to be cut in. And the 20% fee is not set in stone. Mr Ackman, for instance, is taking a much smaller cut and making it conditional on reaching performance targets.

但SPAC必然也存在缺点。首先，费用是不可避免的。通常需向保荐人支付20％的股份——本质上这是对收购公司收取的间接收费，这比IPO便宜不到哪儿去。原则上，保荐人可以稀释“实际费用”。例如，通过在合并时协调从私募或对冲基金获得的另一轮融资来减少费用。另外，一些保荐人可能会激发晕轮效应，仅通过联手合作便能提升了股价。投资者不会去质疑一个“大人物”，他们只想着一同入伙。同时，20％的费用并不是一成不变的。例如，阿克曼先生要的费用（股份）要少得多，并且以达到绩效目标为条件。

注

1：dilute vt.稀释、冲淡；

2：halo effect：晕轮效应，指在人际知觉中所形成的以点概面或以偏概全的主观印象。除了与人们掌握对方的信息太少有关外，主要还是个人主观推断的泛化，扩张和定势的结果。它往往容易形成人的成见或偏见，产生不良的后果。

Source:https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E6%99%95%E8%BD%AE%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94/93548?fr=aladdin

3：set in stone:一成不变

Trustworthy sponsors will keep their own capital tied to the venture. But Bilko is not to be trusted, of course—where would the comedy be in that? His three rival sergeants realise too late that he has sold each of them a one-third stake in a worthless venture. “Don’t you own a piece of it?” asks one in a panic. “Me? I’m in the army,” replies Bilko. “What would I want with an empty store?”

值得信赖的保荐人会将资本与企业捆绑。但是，比尔科不值得信赖——那部喜剧片喜在何处？三位与其博弈的中士明白时已为时已晚——他已分别向此三位出售了一家毫无价值的企业（此处指的是上文的商店）三分之一股份。“你一点股份都没有吗？” 其中一位惊恐地问道。“我？我参军了。我为何会要一家空商店？”比尔科回答。

翻译组：

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Jerry，男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Zihan，男，大数据工程师，经济学人粉丝

IPO的确是件麻烦事，而相比之下SPAC要简易很多。这篇文章巧妙的讲解了SPAC的优缺点。正如文章所说：“IPO本应标志着一家年轻的公司走向成熟。但事实上它却更像一场葬礼：一场让你任由负责人摆布的痛苦考验“。这让IPO听上去一点都不吸引人，那为什么大家不都去SPAC呢？

首先就是名声不好。SPAC本质上就是一个空壳公司。自从上一世纪90年代兴起之后，SPACs的收益率并不怎么样，而且里面的条款都是对赞助人更有力的。什么意思，让我来举个例子。SPAC其中一个条款是：通过SPAC上市的公司，筹集的资金要会放到一个信托资金里。这个信托资金直到合并完成前都会赚取利息。在交易的时候，赞助人可以用信托资金里他有的资产去换取与其对应的普通股（common stock)。这是什么意思？也就是说，赞助人如果突然不喜欢这个交易了，他可以把投进去的钱给要回来。即使大部分时候，这些赞助人都会赞成交易的实施，但这也不过是因为投资人不希望影响他们的认股权证（warrent）罢了。

但是为啥经济学人突然发了这么一篇文章呢？因为年代变了，之前SPAC的坏名声再变好，很多成功的SPAC上市的公司也开始给投资人和合并过来的公司赚取了大量利润。江湖上有个有名的网站叫做SPACInsider。这是他们公布的数据：

我们可以看到，近几年SPAC IPO的数量有增加的趋势。而且19年也是增加了不少。那么，我们怎么看待SPAC才好呢？我来引用Chris Raby的一句话：“We view SPACs in a similar way that we view closed-end funds“。对于一个PM来说，SPAC的存在就像是一个封闭式资金。封闭式资金的基金发行总额和发行期在设立时已确定，这和SPAC IPO很像。

那么，我来引用以下封闭式基金套利的模式：

“在2007年底前到期的封闭式基金的折价率平均在20%左右，假设投资者同时购买净值为1的开放式基金和净值为1元、折价率为20%的封闭式基金，由于开放式基金是按净值进行申购和赎回，所以投资者的成本为1元，而对于封闭式基金来说，投资者的成本仅为0.8元，投资者将两只基金持有到期，由于封闭式基金转开放已有先例，两只基金均按净值赎回，假设净值没有任何增长，开放式基金依旧按1元赎回，投资者的收益为0元，而封闭式基金也按1元赎回，投资者的收益为（1-0.8）/0.8=25%，这就是封闭式基金的到期套利收益“。

那么类似的，我们什么时候买入SPAC？在已经拆分（split）的时候买普通股。什么价位买入？当交易的价格贴现（discount）信托资金cash的价格的时候。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人商业 || 回到流水线

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491283&idx=1&sn=75a037625137e4ae47f7174794a72c41&chksm=fba04d74ccd7c462d0261e7fb44ddb5c416b5f5eec1a163765dab7efe7b23621359bbd220dea#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Rena，坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

特别推荐：

写作天团 | 英文写作批改课 

英文写作批改课复盘（买四送一活动最后一天） 

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Back on the chain gang

回到流水线

英文部分选自经济学人20200801期Business版块

Employees and employers both face trade-offs as offices reopen

线下办公重启，雇主员工都面临权衡

Back on the chain gang

回到流水线

注：
chain gang :a group of prisoners chained together and forced to work

一群被链子拴在一起服劳役的囚犯

Remember the 7am alarm? The rushed goodbye with spouse and children as you dash out of the house? The nervous patting of pockets to check for keys, season ticket, security pass and phone? And the clogged traffic or crowded train carriage?

还记得早上7点的闹钟吗？冲出家门前与配偶和孩子匆匆告别？紧张地拍了拍口袋，检查落没落钥匙、通勤票、门禁卡以及手机？还记得堵塞的交通或拥挤的列车车厢吗？

Most office workers have escaped those familiar rituals for the past four months. But offices are slowly reopening again. And governments are keen to lure workers into the cities, where they can spend their money and help to revive battered economies.

过去的四个月里，大多数上班族都暂时告别了这些熟悉的流程，但随着办公室逐渐重新开放，政府也热衷于将人们吸引回城市，因为人们可以在此进行消费并帮助重振受损的经济。

A group of academics led by Ethan Bernstein of Harvard Business School has been surveying American workers during the crisis*. It found that many felt they could be just as productive at home as they had been at the office. In terms of job satisfaction, a small wobble in the first few weeks of lockdown eased as workers adjusted to new routines. But once that adjustment was made, satisfaction increased. Stress levels have fallen by more than 10%. That despite the fact that workers toil for longer: an analysis of one technology company showed that working hours have increased by 10-20% during the pandemic.

哈佛商学院伊桑·伯恩斯坦(Ethan Bernsein)领导一组学者在疫情危机期间对美国工人进行了一项调查。调查发现，许多人觉得自己在家办公和在办公室同样高效。在工作满意度方面，封锁的前几周有所波动，随着人们适应新的工作日常，满意度有所回升。尽管员工工作时长相对增加——一家技术公司的分析表明，新冠疫情期间员工的工作时间增加了10-20%——工作压力水平下降了10%以上。

That contrasts with less positive results of previous case studies of home-working. Mr Bernstein and his colleagues suggest that the main difference this time is that all employees have been forced into the same situation. In the past, those who worked at home were in the minority, often felt excluded from the group, and so were less likely to identify with the company.

这与之前在家办公不太积极的研究结果形成了反差。伯恩斯坦先生和他的同事表示这次的主要区别在于所有员工均被迫进入在家办公状态。过去，在家办公的只占少数，因此经常感到和团队格格不入，也就不太可能对公司有认同感。

If they were right, then this problem may reassert itself when office work resumes. At the moment, those who have returned to the office are in a minority, comprising those who find it most difficult to work at home. But the balance may shift as time goes on, perhaps because people become more relaxed about the virus, or because people will miss the fellowship of their colleagues. At that point those who remain at home may start to feel isolated.

如果学者的分析正确，那么恢复去办公室上班时这个问题会再次出现。目前，回到办公室工作的是少数，主要是那些无法在家办公的员工。但随着时间的推移，这种平衡可能改变。或许人们对病毒更加放松，又或者人们怀念同事之间的感情。这时，独自在家办公的人可能开始感到被孤立了。

The emotion that is most likely to lure workers back to the office is paranoia. The pandemic may have caused managers to realise who is indispensable and who isn’t. Bartleby realises he is entirely dispensable: an amuse bouche between the meaty stuff of structural reform and vaccines. Fail to amuse enough bouches and he will be shuffled into retirement. Millions may reason the same way. When the number of those back at work reaches a critical mass, the rest may be obliged to follow suit.

最有可能诱惑员工回到办公室的是疑心病。这次疫情或许已经让管理者意识到谁不可或缺，而谁又是可有可无的。笔者感到他完全就是后者，就只是那份结构性改革和疫苗这两道大菜之间的开胃小吃罢了。如果这道开胃点心不能够让老板们满意，则可能会被辞退滚蛋。数百万的人也有这个想法。当重返岗位的人数达到工作所需的最低人数时，剩余的人也不得不照搬效仿。

注：

Bouch：这里代指人

Bouch(noun) a mouth. Bouch(noun) an allowance of meat and drink for the tables of inferior officers or servants in a nobleman's palace or at court.

The trade-off for employers is rather different. Most companies will be thinking about whether they need all that expensive office space. If they do want to lure back their employees, they may have to spend a lot on contactless, socially distant office design to keep their workers safe, such as doors that open automatically.

雇主权衡的点则截然不同。多数公司会考虑是否需要高价租赁办公场所。如果想要吸引员工回来，可能需要花费许多钱在譬如自动门等零接触和保持社交距离的办公场所设计上，以确保员工的安全。

Some firms may be worried about security. On July 27th a British standard-setting board issued guidance for financial firms about the security risks of fixed-income and currency traders working at home. Other companies may worry about the long-term impact of home working on productivity. One missing element may be the casual interaction that occurs between employees outside formal meetings—those chats by the fridge may spark ideas or suggest new ways of co-operating. Indeed, employees may find it more difficult to build relationships throughout the company without meeting colleagues in person.

有些公司或许会担心安全问题。7月27日，英国标准制定委员会发布了针对金融公司固定收益和货币交易员在家工作安全风险的指南。有的公司可能担心在家办公对效率的长期影响。缺失的其中一环可能就是除了正式会议外，员工之间缺少轻松互动。这些在茶水间的交流可能会激发新想法或提出新的合作方式。事实上，员工们发现没有了面对面的接触，在公司里想要建立同事关系愈发困难。

This will be particularly difficult for new employees. It is not always easy even for those who have been doing their job for a while to perform the same tasks at home. And newcomers must adjust to a firm’s culture, which usually happens by picking up subtle cues from the people around them. Companies may bombard them with training modules and video chats—“onboarding”, in the jargon of human-resources departments. But that may be no more useful than reading a manual as your only preparation for trying to ride the winning horse in the Kentucky Derby.

对新员工而言，面对这一切尤其困难。即使对那些已经工作了一段时间的人而言，在家办公，做同样的工作也并不总是容易的。新员工必须适应公司的文化，而这通常从周围人微妙的暗示中获得。用人力资源部门的行话来说，公司可能会用培训模块和视频聊天这种入职培训来“轰炸”新员工。但是这种做法就如同仅仅靠阅读手册就试图驾驭肯塔基德比的冠军马匹一样，对员工来说没有多大帮助。

注：

Kentucky Derby:肯塔基德比是每年于美国肯塔基州路易斯维尔邱吉尔园马场举行的赛马比赛。

Given the state of the global economy it will take time before most companies hire a lot more employees or lower employee interaction weighs on corporate performance. With many employees happy to work from home, that may mean no great rush to repopulate the office. You may not have to resume your morning routine until 2021.

鉴于全球经济现状，大多数公司需要一定时间才能招聘到更多员工或者降低员工互动在公司表现中的分量。多数员工都乐于在家办公，这意味着可能不必急于回到办公室。2021年之前，你可能都不必恢复早起通勤的作息了。

翻译组：

Humi，女，CATer，Catti二笔

Yao，男，不想做翻译的翻译学硕士

Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

业

校对组：

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Monica，女，MTIer,死不悔改的理想主义者

Rena，坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经文史哲爱好者，喜爱小动物

有人觉得COVID-19的爆发会成为一次意义重要的实验，用于试验人群对于居家办公和出勤办公的不同工作效率，一些行业可能会因为这次疫情爆发意识到居家办公反而提高了人们的工作效率，从而居家办公慢慢扩散。

我觉得结论并不成立。本身居家办公在任何时候都没有障碍，如果老板意识到居家办公对员工的效率提升更好的话，理应允许员工们居家办公。一些行业本身其实非常适合居家办公，如码农、编辑创作、在线教育等等。有人反对居家办公，正如文中提到的观点，同事之间的偶尔交谈往往可以迸发灵感，但那样的前提是有一个宽松和睦的工作环境，大多数工作环境是否有这样的条件恐怕需要打个问号。

我个人认为，疫情过后人们的工作方式、出行方式并不会因此发生很大的改变。各行各业适不适合居家办公取决于各自的工作特征，改变工作方式的因素恐怕是城市发展状况、租金高低、各行各业发明的生产方式（如车间的发明、现代教室的发明等）等。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人社论 || 航空业的振兴不能靠政府帮扶

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491274&idx=1&sn=4b367cf45beb2dd85c7596d7d5866e85&chksm=fba04d6dccd7c47b4b62c94d876fc0c8ba3a45de621d126e0bc5b777547dbb2442a384967c0e#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Don’t carry flag-carriers

拒绝帮扶国家航空公司

英文部分选自经济学人20200801期Leaders版块

Airlines

航空公司

Don’t carry flag-carriers

拒绝帮扶国家航空公司

The industry can rebound leaner and greener-so long as governments stop favouring incumbents

只要政府不再支持现有航空公司，航空业就能振兴，变得更加精益、环保

To see the damage from covid-19 to aviation, look up. Where once a criss-cross of vapour trails told of holidaymakers heading for the sun or executives keeping businesses on track, the wide yonder is now a brilliant blue. This year nearly 5bn passengers might have been expected to take to the skies, but the actual number is likely to be only half as big. A fragile recovery is susceptible to new waves of infection. Britain’s imposition this week of a quarantine on passengers returning from Spain is the latest setback. Traffic may not return to 2019 levels until 2024.

要了解新冠疫情对航空业造成的损失，请抬头看——曾经纵横交错的飞机尾迹，记录下度假的人们前往阳光胜地、高管们为商务奔波的行程，而现在那片广阔的天空只剩下一片湛蓝。今年，原预计大约有50亿乘客乘坐飞机，但实际人数可能只有一半。勉强恢复的航空业极其脆弱，很容易受到新一波感染的影响。本周英国对西班牙返英的乘客强行隔离便是最近的一次挫折。可能直到2024年，航空业才能恢复到2019年的水平。

When it does rebound, the twin priorities should be to put the industry on a sounder financial footing, and to make flying less polluting. For both objectives the way forward is the same: to loosen incumbents’ grip on the skies.

待到航空业实际恢复，应当优先考虑两个目标：一是要确保航空业拥有更坚实的财务基础；二是减少飞行污染。这两个目标的推进方向是一致的：放开现有航空公司对天空的控制。

Start with carbon emissions. The dramatic declines this year are a distraction because as people resume flying, emissions will start to rise again. Neither should the industry’s sorry financial state today relieve it of recent pressure to decarbonise in the future. For many years aviation mostly had a free pass when it came to regulations of the type that forced carmakers to clean themselves up. Before the pandemic that had been changing. Some airlines had begun to worry about their reputations as “flight shame” raised awareness of how travelling by air accelerated global warming. Aircraft-makers were starting to plan the next generation of cleaner planes.

先看碳排放。今年碳排放量的急剧下降是个假象，因为随着人们恢复飞行，排放量将再次上升。面对未来脱碳的压力，航空业当前并不能松懈，眼下糟糕的财务状况也不能成为借口。多年来，法律法规迫使汽车行业变得清洁环保，却对航空行业睁一只眼闭一只眼大开绿灯。此次大流行之前，这一态势已经有所变化。由于“航空之耻”提高了人们对乘飞机旅行加速全球变暖的认识，一些航空公司开始担忧它们的声誉。飞机制造商正在筹备下一代更清洁的飞机。

注：

Flight shame: 来自于瑞典语Flygskam，字面意思是“飞行耻辱”。该运动阻止人们减少碳排放以阻止气候变化。

The question is how an industry whose finances are in tatters can make the vast investments and the huge technological leap required for net-zero-emissions flying. Bail-outs are the wrong answer. Only 30 airlines were profitable before the crisis and rescues will keep failing carriers alive. Some green strings are attached to rescue deals—a recognition of the changing mood—but they may not outweigh the zombifying effects of lavish rescue packages. Lufthansa’s €9bn ($9.8bn) bail-out allows it to buy 80 new fuel-efficient planes, but it took more money than it needed to preserve its position as a global airline. France’s aerospace bail-out includes €1.5bn to develop zero-emission planes and obliges airlines not to fly shorter routes between French cities that are served by trains. The exception? Feeder airports for Air France’s Paris hub. America’s airlines, showered with federal subsidies for decades, have trousered $25bn.

现在的问题是，一个财务状况千疮百孔的行业如何才能进行大规模投资并且实现净零排放飞行所需的技术飞跃。紧急援助是一个错误的答案。新冠肺炎造成危机前，只有30家航空公司能够盈利，而经济援助将使濒临破产的航空公司继续生存。救助协议中附加了一些绿色条款——顺应形势变化——但这可能无法抵消慷慨的救助计划所带来的僵尸效应。德国汉莎航空(Lufthansa)获得的90x亿欧元(合98亿美元)救助资金，可以使其购买80架新型节油飞机，但为了保住其全球航空公司的地位，该公司所花费的资金远远超过所需。法国对航空业的救助计划包括15亿欧元用于开发零排放的飞机，并要求航空公司不得在有火车通勤的法国城市之间飞短途航线。有一个例外就是法航在巴黎中心的支线机场（不受此约束）。几十年来，美国的航空公司得到了大量的联邦政府补贴，目前已获得的补贴数额达250亿美元。

注：

Feeder airports: small airports that bring passengers to a hub airport for transfer支线机场

These efforts to keep incumbent airlines flying threaten to prevent bolder carriers from expanding. Waivers on airport-slot rules will further hamper new entrants. Regulators around the world suspended use-it-or-lose-it rules for the summer to help stricken carriers. Incumbents want an extension to cover the winter, too. But if slots cannot be reallocated, rivals will be constrained. In Europe agile, low-cost carriers like Wizz Air are rightly calling for slot-blocking to end.

这些维持现有航空公司运营的努力会阻碍更敢于冒险的航空公司的扩张。对机场起降时刻规则的免除将进一步阻碍市场的新进入者。在这个夏季，世界各地的监管机构暂停了“不用就作废”的规定，以帮助受挫的航空公司。现有的航空公司希望这一规定也能够延长至整个冬季结束。但如果起降时刻安排不能够进行重新分配，现有航空公司的竞争对手们将受到限制。在欧洲，像匈牙利威兹航空等这些灵活、低成本的航空公司正在适宜地呼吁结束对机场起降时刻安排的封锁。

注：

1. use it or lose it rule: More employers are implementing the “use it or lose it” rule, which requires the employee to forfeit any unused vacation days they’ve accrued at the end of the year. They can’t cash out or roll it over to the following year. 公司实施的“不用就作废”的规定，员工积累的假期到年底不用完就丧失了，而不能转成现金补偿或延续到下一年。此处指的是“航空起降权”

2. 航空起降权：像纽约肯尼迪机场，伦敦希思罗机场，巴黎戴高乐机场以及德国法兰克福和慕尼黑机场，都是大受乘客和航空公司欢迎的起降地。这类国际机场都很繁忙，然而跑道数量却是有限的。每一架飞机起降都需要占用跑道和时间（两个起飞或者落地或者起落飞机之间为了安全都要保持一定的间隔），所以一个机场每天所能承载的航班数量是非常有限的。如果航空公司拿到时刻又放弃的话，再想拿到就很困难了。有些航空公司为了留住起降权，甚至不惜飞机空飞，也要占领跑道。比如英国第三大航空公司bmi为保留在希思罗机场的起降权，就曾以近乎 “空飞”的方式飞行。这种空驶客机就被称为“幽灵航班”。

If the industry is in the deep-freeze, it will slow the development of clean aeroplanes. Airbus has a goal of developing such an aircraft by 2035, whether using renewable fuels, electricity or hydrogen power, but the aerospace giants need to be sure that they will have a thriving market if they are to invest in them. Long industry lead times mean that Airbus will have to make firm plans in the next couple of years and Boeing will have to decide whether to respond soon after (see article).

如果航空业陷入深度的冰封期，清洁能源飞机的发展将会减速。空中客车公司的目标是无论使用可再生燃料、电力还是氢动力，到2035年要研发出这样的飞机，但是航空巨头们需要确定，如果要投资研发这些飞机，它们将会有一个繁荣的市场。较长的行业生产前置期意味着空客将不得不在未来几年内制定明确的计划，而波音公司也必须很快决定是否做出回应。

注：

Lead time: the time between starting and completing a production process从投产至完成生产间隔的时间；订货交付时间

Just as easyJet and Ryanair, now both huge airlines, took advantage of a glut of cheap aeroplanes after 9/11 and the deregulation of European airspace to expand rapidly, so a dynamic airline industry searching for new ways to grow would require new aircraft, encouraging Airbus and Boeing to make air travel greener. As well as setting back the industry, cosseting the old guard will do more damage to the planet.

正如易捷航空（easyJet）和 瑞安航空（Ryanair）两家航空公司巨头，曾利用911事件后供应过剩的廉价飞机和欧洲领空管制的放松迅速扩张那样，一个充满活力的航空业需要新的飞机来寻找新动能，这将鼓励空客和波音公司的飞机更加绿色环保。偏爱那些现有的老牌公司不仅会会使行业倒退，还会对地球造成更大的破坏。

注：

1. Glut: a situation in which there is more of sth than is needed or can be used供应过剩

2. Cosset: to treat sb with a lot of care and give them a lot of attention, sometimes too much宠爱；溺爱；娇惯

翻译组：

Melody，女，咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工，经济学人粉丝儿

Mai, 男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

校对组：

Neil, 男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Wesley，男，英语老师，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Carole，女，经济硕士，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vincent 男，狱警，电子与法学双硕，爱好诗歌与哲学

放之诸多行业皆准，不为新兴者重重设障，反而能获得源源不断进步的可能。唯有舒伸是神的。“当燃烧的沉默毁去边界/风的孩提/云的孩提/你们可知道稻田怎样被新穗所抓住/我怎样被故事/河流怎样被两岸/两岸怎样被行人/行人怎样被龙舌兰的太阳//花朵破泥墙而出/我就舒伸/因为只剩下舒伸是神的/就舒伸/向十万里，千万里/十万里，千万里的恐惧”因循记忆而往，叶威廉的诗，忘记部分文字而记得意境。当你等候台风过境时的心情，雨水迟迟未到，时间似也凝滞了，可即便雨大到下到碗里，亦有种笃然的心闲气定。

神性之外是什么。秋刀鱼被一根世俗的竹签串起，横卧在时代的烤架之上，隐忍穿肠而过。它始终保持着与脊背弧度相应的想象，淬火中的形而上学。我们知道照搬从前的决策行不通，可往往是，我以为能够绕过你另辟蹊径，可所踏皆是你的足印。似乎依吾辈的智量，说是凭历史经验实则深陷于某种积习，一个时代人共有的“集体无意识”。对于锐意创新者，需要品质齐备，即必先有远见和决心，以及独自上路形单影只时的勇气，而后才有将身家付于命运一决的可能，就你所能设想到的而言理应如此。这就好像说到人类进步的问题，有说法是人类进步没有捷径，唯有审慎的心态和阳光的博弈，这是好的想法，可谁知道呢。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491264&idx=1&sn=243e8e73fb661b0cdb1606b55e2344ae&chksm=fba04d67ccd7c47186c56dafc94aa87543298de78bb880cae7e5abc7425e8d724d2d1fb26ad9#rd

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | Don’t carry flag-carriers

https://www.economist.com/node/21790201?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Back on the chain gang

https://www.economist.com/node/21790215?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | The SPAC hack

https://www.economist.com/node/21790241?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | Attention pays

https://www.economist.com/node/21790181?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | The tale of a village

https://www.economist.com/node/21790179?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

PS: 对写作批改课有意向的小伙伴一定仔细阅读以下两篇文章

 写作天团 | 英文写作批改课

英文写作批改课复盘（限时买4送1）

读完后再私信小编（微信：396196827）进意向群，写作批改课是1V1,价格分别是199和499，前者是：文字修改版加语音建议，后者是：文字修改版加两次zoom或者其他软件直连修改，互动以及修改效果更好。

---End---

英文写作批改课买4送1，仅剩最后3天

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491259&idx=1&sn=0ce923d5b215d2aeef8a4007ad273677&chksm=fba04d1cccd7c40a406c9bcd9cbe272ed82bee8e7eaee09cd3cbc9b9406ac2e1ba83e4e12936#rd

前几天发了推文英文写作批改课复盘（限时买4送1），文中提到20200805前，报写作批改课买4次送1次，活动还有最后三天，截至目前私信小编（VX:396196827)有意向的小伙伴很多，报名的有10多位小伙伴，这是第一次开课，虽然人数暂时不多，但小编还是想说：感谢大家的信任和支持，后面会陆续推出一些课程，敬请期待......

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经济学人逝者 || 民权活动家约翰·刘易斯（翻译组又招人啦）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491254&idx=1&sn=0f87301f7b4906a26956b663b515793b&chksm=fba04d11ccd7c40705fade8f2694a9a22e882ae6958e4868f1f5cdd0e2a62f66a1cb349cd5d2#rd

1

导读

逝者翻译组继续招人啦

具体条件可以阅读下文（超链）：

我们需要怎么样的译者？

特别福利：

近期正在筹备的课程有

写作课（已经在课程研发中）

翻译批改课（筹备阶段）

以及

翻译课（筹备阶段）

欢迎一笔以及翻译教学经验丰富的老师加入

加小编VX(396196827)后请附上自己的简介

加入后将和翻译组小伙伴一起进行严格的翻译测试

测试通过后将有机会进入筹备课团队

大家可以一起愉快的赚“大钱”买大别野了

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

A country’s conscience

国之良知

英文部分选自经济学人2020072期逝者版块

Obituary: John Lewis

逝者：约翰·刘易斯

A country’s conscience

国之良知

The congressman and civil-rights activist was 80

国会议员和民权活动家，终年80岁

John Lewis had a ritual that saw him through（陪…度过） the early 1960s. After being released from jail, he would head back to wherever he was staying—usually a local family’s house—take a long shower, put on jeans and a fresh shirt, find a little restaurant where he could order a burger and a cold soda, drop a quarter in the jukebox and play Curtis Mayfield or Aretha. He would sit down and, as he wrote in his memoir, “let that music wash over me, just wash right through me. I don’t know if I’ve ever felt anything so sweet.”

60年代早期，约翰·刘易斯一直保持着一个习惯：每次出狱后，他会回到住处——一般是当地民宅——好好地洗个澡，换上牛仔裤和干净衬衫，找一家小饭馆，点上汉堡和冰苏打水，再丢25美分到点唱机里，聆听柯蒂斯·梅菲尔德或阿雷莎的音乐。就像他在回忆录中写的那样，他会坐下来，“完全沉浸其中，让音乐在我体内冲刷、涤荡。我不知道这辈子有什么能让我感到这样甜蜜。”

If it seems like the ritual of a man at the end of a hard day’s work, that is because it often was. Civil-rights activists across the south faced arrest, usually on flimsy charges such as disorderly conduct and disturbing the peace. It was all a part of what he called getting into “good trouble” for acting and speaking out against injustice. He never lost that habit. He was arrested for the 45th time in 2013, his 26th year in Congress, at a rally for immigration reform.

可以说这与普通人结束一天辛苦工作之后的生活无异，因为事实在他身上就是如此。那时美国南部的民权活动家会因很牵强的理由被捕，例如“扰乱社会治安”等，他将其称作由采取行动、公开反对不公导致的“好麻烦”。而他总是频繁被捕。2013年是他在国会任职的第26年，在一次移民改革的集会上，他第45次被捕。

注：

Good trouble：出自他2018年一条推特，原文为“Get in good trouble, necessary trouble, and help redeem the soul of America.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/18/rep-john-lewis-most-memorable-quotes-get-good-trouble/5464148002/

Raised in a small house in Pike County, Alabama, without running water or electricity, he had put himself on an activist’s path early. He applied for a library card at 16. He was denied, of course—libraries, like everything else in Alabama then, were segregated—but he drafted a petition arguing that the library should open its doors to black Alabamans whose taxes helped pay for it.

他在阿拉巴马州派克县一个不通水电的小房子里长大，很早就走上了活动家的道路。他16岁去申请图书卡，不出意料，他被图书馆拒绝了——和当时阿拉巴马州的所有场所一样，图书馆也实行种族隔离——但是他起草了一份请愿书，主张图书馆应该向阿拉巴马州的黑人敞开大门，因为黑人纳的税也用于图书馆建设。

He had recently heard a sermon on the radio by a young Baptist minister from Atlanta named Martin Luther King junior, who urged listeners to concern themselves not just with God’s Kingdom, but with racial injustice here on Earth. He also wanted to be a preacher—when he was a boy, he had preached to his family’s chickens—and King was the first one he heard use the Gospel to ask how American Christians could believe in both brotherhood and segregation. King could not accept it, and neither could he. What he and King fought for was both radical, given America’s racial history, but also nothing more than an insistence that America live up to its stated ideals of liberty and justice for all.

那之后不久，约翰·刘易斯在无线电广播上听了亚特兰大一位年轻的浸信会牧师马丁·路德·金的布道他希望听众不仅要关心天国，还要关注地球上的种族不平等。刘易斯曾经也想成为一名布道者，他小时候就对着家里的鸡做过布道。路德·金是他见过的第一个用福音书质问美国基督徒的人，他质问他们怎么能一边奉行四海皆兄弟，一边实行种族隔离。这种做法，路德·金不接受，刘易斯也不接受。虽然在整个美国种族历史上，他和路德·金的斗争都很激进，但也无非是坚持美国应该遵守它所宣扬的理想——让所有人享有自由与公正。

His activism did not sit well with his parents, who were ashamed when he was jailed. They urged him to “get out of this movement, just get out of that mess.” He was not a gifted orator like King, nor was he urbane like Julian Bond—a co-founder of the Student Nonviolent Co-ordinating Committee (SNCC) and the upper-crust son of a college president whom in 1986 he defeated in the race for the Atlanta congressional seat that he would hold until he died. Small, broadly built and somewhat shy, he was a participant, a doer, an organiser. In person, he was serious and warm, committed to his views but a first-rate listener.

刘易斯的父母并不接受他的激进运动，并为他坐牢感到丢人。他们催促他“放弃种族运动，放弃那些乱七八糟的事”。刘易斯不像路德·金那样善于演讲，也不像朱利安·邦德那么练达。邦德是学生非暴力协调委员会（SNCC）的联合创始人之一，也是大学校长的儿子，家庭优渥。刘易斯在1986年亚特兰大国会席位的竞选中战胜了邦德，并且在这个位置上一直做到去世。刘易斯个矮、壮实，但有点害羞，他是参与者、行动者，也是组织者。就性格而言，他严肃又贴心，有主见但更是一流的倾听者。

Some of the better-educated members of the movement quietly teased him for his country accent. But as Kelly Miller Smith, who taught him the art of preaching at American Baptist College noted, every word from him might as well be carved in granite, and carried its own truth. His sense of purpose did not waver, even as others retreated from activism, shell-shocked by what they had seen and endured, or lost patience with the slow pace of change and the requirement that they receive blows without giving any back.

有些受过高等教育的民权运动者暗中取笑他的乡下口音。但正如刘易斯在美国浸会学院的布道艺术老师凯莉·米勒·史密斯所说，他的每一句话也可能镌刻在花岗岩碑上，每一个词都饱含真理。即使当别人被见闻和经历吓倒，从民权活动退却，或因改变缓慢以及人们要求他们承受重创却从不反击而丧失耐心时，刘易斯都不曾动摇。

But his non-violence was not soft or conciliatory; it was adamantine, confrontational. His first Freedom Ride was in 1961, a bus trip south in which black and white riders sat next to each other and used the “wrong” restrooms and water fountains, provoking beatings, sympathy and attention in order to get the federal government to enforce its ban on segregated facilities at bus and railway stations. Before they left, some of his fellow Riders wrote wills. A poor student of 21, he had nothing to leave anyone.

但是他主张的非暴力并不意味着软弱或和解，而是坚毅与对抗。1961年他第一次参加自由乘车运动，即黑人和白人在前往南方的跨州巴士上并肩而坐，故意使用“错误的”洗手间和饮水器，激起打斗，引起同情和关注，意在让联邦政府落实对汽车和火车站种族隔离的禁令。在他们出发前，一些同乘者写好了遗书。那时而他只是一个21岁的穷学生，一无所有，没什么可留给任何人。

注：

Freedom Ride：自由乘车运动，美国的民权活动家们从1961年开始乘坐跨州巴士前往种族隔离现象严重的美国南部，以检验美国最高法院针对波因顿诉弗吉尼亚案（Boynton v. Virginia）（1960）和艾琳·摩尔根诉弗吉尼亚州案（Irene Morgan v. Commonwealth of Virginia）（1946）判决的落实情况。

He defied Bobby Kennedy, then the attorney-general, and Roy Wilkins, the head of the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People, who urged the Riders not to continue into Mississippi. Two years later, Kennedy conceded that “the young people of SNCC have educated me.” At the March on Washington in 1963—where, at just 23, he was by far the youngest speaker, and the most strident—he vowed to “splinter the segregated South into a thousand pieces and put them back together in the image of God and democracy.”

他公然反抗时任司法部长鲍比·肯尼迪和全国有色人种协进会主席罗伊·威尔金斯，后者警告自由乘车运动参与者不要前往密西西比州。两年后，肯尼迪勉强承认“SNCC的年轻人给我上了一课”。1963年3月，23岁的他做为作为最年轻，也是最坚定的演讲者在华盛顿大游行发表演讲，誓要“让种族隔离盛行的南方支离破碎，再以上帝和民主的形象将其重塑方圆”。

The night he was nearly beaten to death leading marchers across the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama—March 7th 1965—he chastised Lyndon Johnson for sending federal troops to Vietnam and Congo but not Alabama. He had been drawn to Selma in part because of the repeated assaults on C.T. Vivian—a minister and veteran activist who was to die on the same day he did—while trying to register black voters. Johnson announced the next day that he was sending troops and signed the Voting Rights Act into law five months later. But after Selma, as he wrote, “the road of non-violence had essentially run out,” and the civil-rights movement began to fracture.

1965年3月7日晚上，他带领游行者穿过阿拉巴马州塞尔玛的艾德蒙柏图斯桥时险些被打死，他谴责林登·约翰逊，责备其将联邦军队派遣至越南和刚果而不是阿拉巴马州。他去塞尔玛一方面是因为C.T.维维安（牧师、资深活动家，和约翰同一天逝世）频频受到攻击，另一方面也想借此机会登记更多黑人选举人。约翰逊总统第二天宣布他正在调遣部队，并在5个月后签署了《选举权法案》。但是在塞尔玛事件之后，正如刘易斯所写，“非暴力的道路基本上已经走不通了”，民权运动也开始瓦解。

The beloved community

至爱社区

He settled in Atlanta, where he was elected to the city council, and then to Congress. He sought votes from every constituency, blue- and white-collar, Jewish and gay. He never stopped believing in King’s Beloved Community, centred on radical love and justice, never stopped making good trouble. In 1996, almost 20 years before the Supreme Court ruled that gay-marriage bans violate the constitution, he gave a stirring speech on the House floor calling marriage “a basic human right” that should not be denied people just because they happen to be gay.

他定居在亚特兰大，先后当选为市议员和国会议员。他向各类选民拉票，无论是蓝领还是白领，犹太人还是同性恋。他对路德·金推崇的基于炽热的爱和正义的至爱社区坚信不疑，也从未停止惹好麻烦。1996年，也就是最高法院判决同性婚姻禁令违宪的近20年前，他在众议院发表了一篇激动人心的演讲，认为婚姻是“一项基本人权”，不应该因为人们恰巧是同性恋就被剥夺。

注：

King’s Beloved Community: 崇尚互爱、和解、亲如姐妹、财富共享、公平公正的社区。https://thekingcenter.org/king-philosophy/

Alone among March on Washington speakers, he lived long enough to see America elect a black president. At lunch after the inauguration in 2009, he approached the new president with a commemorative photograph and asked for an autograph. Barack Obama wrote, “Because of you, John”, and signed his name.

在当年华盛顿大游行的演讲者里，他是唯一一位在世者见证了美国黑人总统的诞生。2009年就职典礼之后的午餐上，他拿着一张具有纪念意义的照片走到新任总统身边请他签名。奥巴马写道“因为有你，约翰”，并签了名。

注：

March on Washington：1963年8月，25万人左右聚集在华盛顿林肯纪念碑前，为争取黑人的权利、平等和自由而进行的大规模的游行。

https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/march-on-washington

He spoke forcefully in favour of Donald Trump’s impeachment. His last appearance was with Muriel Bowser, the seventh African-American mayor of Washington, DC, standing on the newly painted Black Lives Matter plaza in front of the White House—a reminder of how far America had come, and how far it still has left to go.

他在演说中大力支持弹劾唐纳德·特朗普。他的最后一次露面，是和华盛顿特区第七位非裔美国市长穆里尔·鲍泽一起，他们站在白宫前的刚上漆了“黑人的命也是命”的广场，这里提醒着美国人民已跋山涉水走过的路，还有那未竟之路。

注：Black Lives Matter plaza

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Lives_Matter_Plaza

翻译组：

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Kemay，决心练好笔译的未来口译员

Sheri，坚信可以forever young的老年人

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人

Because of you,John

我们一直有一种迷思，这个世界是奔流向前的，未来是注定美好的，昨天有遗憾，现在不够好，但是明天！明天一定是光明的。我们似乎忽略了这样一种可能，世界其实是一条守恒的曲线，我们所有的努力无非是曲线的上下波动，可是在曲线中间，围绕着的那条不变的直线，才是世界的本质，我们的所有努力，都无济于事，不会让它更坏，但也从未使他更好。

于是，在非裔美国人12年前看着奥巴马成为美国总统，以为几十年的抗争运动终于迎来了历史性的一页，美国种族问题将会成为历史，仅仅8年后，他们就看到那个要盖高墙的川普，把手放在圣经上，宣誓要让美国再次伟大。美国是否再次伟大了起来，见仁见智，可是4年后的弗洛伊德却真实地被生生压死在了那块自由之地上。

马丁路德金的那个梦想有没有实现，甚至有没有可能实现，生活在那片土地上的非裔美国人用“Black Lives Matter”给出了自己的答案，而那段黑人运动风起云涌年代的最后一个知名斗士的告别，也为这个未竟之梦增添了一抹悲伤，仿佛一切归于原点。

2020年过于风起云涌，政治、军事、经济、疫情，每一天的新闻，放在过往的任何一年都可以荣登当年十大新闻事件之一，可是在今年，那不过只是平平无奇的一天。我们不是经过几十年的努力，马上就要迎来新时代，实现中国梦了么？怎么突然就被全世界围堵了？我们不是刚刚把孩子接回来二十几年长大成人，怎么突然孩子就要改名换姓不肯认祖归宗了？我们不是医疗腾飞，人类平均寿命不断提高，都要担心地球不够住，目标锁定火星了，怎么突然疫情全球肆虐，甚至在某些欧洲小镇据说一代人就这么永远告别了？我们不是刚刚奔向新生活，要实现全面小康了，怎么突然就要做好准备勒紧裤腰带了？

这一切一切的变化，让你不禁去思考，努力的意义是什么？浮光掠影的美好过后，谁知不是水落石出的现实残酷呢？几年的拼搏，一场疫情化为乌有，几辈的积蓄，一场洪水一贫如洗。从小被教育的人定胜天，长大才发现，原来拼尽全力胜了天之后，方知，天外有天。

所以，努力真的毫无用处么？

也不是。毕竟现在如果再说公交车上哪个区域是只有白种人才可以坐，有色人种需要回避的，是不可想象的事情，毕竟，现在没有哪个美国总统敢像威尔逊一样公然宣称支持种族隔离政策，即使那个人是川普。而经历过这段时间经济腾飞的中国人，敞开怀抱面向世界几十年的中国人，即使是再次面对围堵，勒紧裤腰带，我们面对世界的态度，面对自己的态度，也必然不再相同，即使我们仍然接触到了是翻译过的资讯筛选过的信息，可是选择如何理解和面对，也绝不再是几十年前的老路。

所以，改变世界的意义究竟是什么？世界也许真的永远不会被改变，变好变坏都是暂时的，可是在改变世界的过程中，那个敢于拼搏敢于争取的我们，那个努力变好的自己，才是一切的意义。

送给每一个还没认输的，John.

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人科技 || 蝙蝠信号

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491248&idx=1&sn=9be3f8d04f0549169538c747bc36b77f&chksm=fba04d17ccd7c4014d8f58d28e2720589e244a08bba4b9dae03804602f7b6730446452540423#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
Step by step, 爱翻译爱研究的理工男，经济学人铁粉，二笔二口冲刺者

特别推荐：

写作天团 | 英文写作批改课 

英文写作批改课复盘（限时买四送一） 

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 The Bat Signal

蝙蝠信号

英文部分选自经济学人20200725期科技版块

The Bat Signal

蝙蝠信号

The hunt for the origins of SARS-CoV-2 will look beyond China

新冠病毒溯源，视野转向国外

The virus may have been born in South-East Asia

病毒可能来源于东南亚

One of the great questions of the past six months is where SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19, came from. It is thought the answer involves bats, because they harbour a variety of SARS-like viruses. Yunnan, one of China’s southernmost provinces, has drawn the attention of virus hunters, as the closest-known relatives of SARS-CoV-2 are found there. But some think the origins of the virus are not to be found in China at all, but rather just across the border in Myanmar, Laos or Vietnam.

过去半年中有一个重大疑问：导致新冠肺炎的病毒（SARS-CoV-2）究竟起源何方？有人认为与蝙蝠有关，因为蝙蝠携带多种类SARS病毒。位于中国最南端的云南省引起了病毒追踪者的注意，因为在那里曾发现目前已知与新冠病毒最相近的病毒。但也有人认为，病毒的源头根本不在中国，而在中国南方国界线外的缅甸、老挝和越南。

This is the hunch of Peter Daszak, head of EcoHealth Alliance, an organisation which researches animals that harbour diseases that move into people. Since the outbreak, in 2003, of the original SARS (now known as SARS-CoV), scientists have paid close attention to coronaviruses. Dr Daszak says that around 16,000 bats have been sampled and around 100 new SARS-like viruses discovered. In particular, some bats found in China are now known to harbour coronaviruses that seem pre-adapted to infect people. The chiropteran hosts of these viruses have versions of a protein called ace2 that closely resemble the equivalent in people. This molecule is used by SARS-like viruses as a point of entry into a cell.

这是生态健康联盟主席彼得·达沙克 (Peter Daszak) 的猜想，该组织研究携带可传播给人类疾病的动物。自从2003年SARS病毒（现已更名为SARS-CoV病毒）爆发以来，冠状病毒持续获得科学家密切关注。达沙克博士表示，对约一万六千只蝙蝠采样后，发现了约100种新型类SARS病毒。值得一提的是，在中国蝙蝠身上发现了通过进化后能传播给人类的冠状病毒。在宿主蝙蝠体内发现了名为血管紧张素转化酶2 (ACE2) 的蛋白质, 与人体内相应的蛋白质非常相似。类SARS病毒通过这种分子作为受体进入人体细胞。

That such virological diversity has so far been found only in China is because few people have looked at bats in countries on the other side of the border. Yet these places are likely to be an evolutionary hotspot for coronaviruses—one that mirrors bat diversity (see map). The horseshoe bats in Yunnan which harbour close relatives of SARS-CoV-2 are found across the region. Other countries are thus likely to have bats with similar viral building blocks. Dr Daszak believes it is “quite likely that bats in Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam carry similar SARS-related coronaviruses, maybe a huge diversity of them, and that some of them could be close to SARS-CoV-2”.

上述病毒目前只在中国蝙蝠体内发现，这是因为很少有人关注中国外其他国家的蝙蝠。其实，这些地区很可能是冠状病毒进化的重点地区——因为在那里蝙蝠种类繁多（见地图）。云南菊头蝠携带新冠病毒的近亲，而在这些国家也发现了菊头蝠的踪影。因此，其他国家也有携带类似病毒构件的蝙蝠。达沙克博士认为，“缅甸、老挝和越南的蝙蝠很有可能携带类似SARS的冠状病毒，且病毒亚种繁多，其中几种可能与冠状病毒十分类似。” 

扩展阅读：15年后，在云南找到源头——菊头蝠

https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1893843

（本图描绘了蝙蝠种类多样性的分布情况。颜色越深的地区，种类多样性越丰富。中国下方标出的三个国家从左到右分别为缅甸、老挝和越南）

None of this, though, explains how a virus whose ancestor may be found in South-East Asian bats went on to start a pandemic from central China. China’s government has agreed that a mission led by the World Health Organisation (WHO) can visit later this year to help answer this question. There is particular interest in how much sampling has been conducted to look for the missing link in places like the wildlife market in Wuhan (the first known centre of the outbreak) and more generally in farmers, traders and possible intermediate or host species.

然而，上述发现仍无法解释，起源于东南亚的蝙蝠是如何在中国中部地区引发此次疫情。中国政府已同意世界卫生组织（WHO）在今年下半年来中国进行调查、寻找答案。人们尤为关注的是，为寻找缺失的一环，在武汉野生动物市场（首例疫情爆发中心）、农民、贸易商和其他可能的中间宿主或原生宿主中，已经进行了多少次取样。

Jeremy Farrar, the head of the Wellcome Trust, a large medical-research charity, and a former professor of tropical medicine, says his guess is that either SARS-CoV-2 or something similar to it has been circulating in people in parts of South-East Asia and southern China, probably for many years, and that intermediate hosts have not yet been identified. Dr Farrar spent 18 years working in Vietnam as the head of an Oxford University research unit. He says people go searching for bats for food and sell them in markets in what is a sophisticated trade that can end up in big cities like Wuhan. Bats are able to carry a huge diversity of viruses without getting sick, and are also more mobile than people realise. As he puts it, bats “congregate in huge colonies, and poo everywhere. And then other mammals live off that poo and then act as a mixing vessel for these sorts of viruses.”

英国惠康基金会（Wellcome Trust）是一家大型的医疗研究慈善机构，其现任总裁杰里米•法拉尔（Jeremy Farrar）曾是热带医学教授，据他猜测，新冠病毒或类似的冠状病毒很可能已经在东南亚和中国南方某些地区潜伏多年，但中间宿主尚不明确。法拉尔博士带领牛津大学研究小组在越南工作了18年。他发现当地人们捕食蝙蝠，并将其拿到市场上售卖，经过一系列复杂的贸易渠道，最终把蝙蝠卖到武汉这样的大城市。蝙蝠携带种类繁多的病毒但不患病，而且流动性也比人类预想的强。“蝙蝠喜群居，四处排便，因此以蝙蝠粪便为生的哺乳动物就也成为了病毒的传播者”，法拉尔博士如是说。

Support for the idea that something resembling SARS-CoV-2 might have been circulating in the region before the pandemic began also comes from another intriguing observation: the low incidence of covid-19 in South-East Asia, particularly in Vietnam. John Bell, a professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, says everyone thought there would be a flood of cases in Vietnam because the country is right across the border from China. Yet Vietnam has reported only 300 in a population of 100m, and no deaths. The country did not have a great lockdown either, he adds. Nobody could work out what was going on.

与新冠病毒类似的冠状病毒，早在疫情开始前就已在当地传播。另一项有趣的观察结果也能支持这一观点，即在东南亚地区，尤其是越南，新冠肺炎的发病率极低。牛津大学医学教授约翰•贝尔（John Bell）称，因为越南与中国接壤，大家都认为越南会成为疫情重灾区。但据报告，越南一亿人口中只有300例确诊，且无死亡病例。他还补充道，越南并没有实行严格的封城措施。没有人知晓这背后的原因。

One explanation, he suggests, is that Vietnam’s population is not as immunologically “naive” as has been assumed. The circulation of other SARS-like viruses could have conferred a generalised immunity to such pathogens. So, if a new one emerged in the region, it was able to take hold in the human population only when it travelled all the way to central China—where people did not have this natural resistance.

贝尔博士提出一种解释，与他先前的假设不同，越南人民其实对冠状病毒有一定的抵抗力。其他类SARS病毒的传播可能让当地人普遍对这类病原体产生了免疫力。所以，新的冠状病毒出现时，只有等它从越南传到中国中部时，才显示出其危害力，因为在中国人们对该病毒没有抵抗力。

This would tie in with the idea that infection with one coronavirus can provide protection against others, and that even in countries away from the evolutionary cauldron of South-East Asia part of the population may have some protection against the current pandemic. In particular, there are suggestions that protection might be conferred mainly via part of the immune system called t-cells (which work by killing virus-infected cells) rather than via antibodies (which work by gumming up pathogens). If that is the case, then serological studies which look at antibodies may be underestimating natural immunity.

这与另一种观点不谋而合：感染一种冠状病毒后，人体会对其他冠状病毒产生免疫，即使是在远离东南亚这个冠状病毒进化的聚集体，部分人也可能对新冠病毒具有一定的抵抗力。值得注意的是，有观点认为人主要通过免疫系统中的T淋巴细胞（杀灭病毒感染细胞）获得对病毒的免疫力，而非通过抗体（与病原体结合）。如果是这样，那么研究抗体的血清学可能低估了自然免疫力。

注：自然免疫（natural immunity）是指各种形式的免疫功能在感染时主动发挥作用，并且不随以前某种病原体而改变。这是第一道防线的特点是应答迅速、广泛特异性、效率有限。

Sunetra Gupta, an epidemiologist at Oxford, argues that natural immunity to covid-19 is conferred by infections with seasonal coronaviruses. If correct, this has implications for the level of vaccination needed to reach herd immunity. It is widely assumed that over 50% of people need to be vaccinated to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2. In a preprint released on July 15th Dr Gupta says this figure could be much lower if a significant part of the population is already resistant to infection.

牛津大学流行病学家苏尼特拉·古普塔(Sunetra Gupta)认为，对新冠肺炎的自然免疫力来源于季节性冠状病毒感染。如果这种说法无误，就会对实现群体免疫所需的疫苗接种范围有重大影响。目前人们普遍认为，为了防止新冠病毒卷土重来，超过50%的人需要接种疫苗。在7月15日发布的预印报告中，古普塔博士表示，如果已有相当一部分人对新冠有免疫力，需要接种的人数可能会更少。

As for the mystery of the origin of covid-19, more answers will come when the who mission takes place, perhaps in August. The critical steps that led a South-East Asian bat virus to start a pandemic could have happened inside or outside of China—whether in wild-animal markets or farms, or in traders or hunters. The virus may have jumped directly from bats into people, or come via an intermediate species. The story is waiting to be told.

至于新冠肺炎的起源之谜，今年八月世界卫生组织开始调查后，将有更多的真相揭示。东南亚蝙蝠携带的病毒引发了此次新冠疫情，其中的关键环节可能在中国或其他国家——源头可能是野生动物市场、农民、商贩或捕猎者。新冠病毒可能由蝙蝠直接传给人类，或是通过某种中间宿主传播。真相有待揭晓。

翻译组：

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

校核组：

Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系。

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

Helen，女，坐标武汉，职业翻译，翻硕已毕业英语二笔二口，爱好陶笛洞箫古诗词

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

追溯源头是⼀件⽆⽐困难的事情，因为在探索的环节⽤有众多因素都可能会影响我们。但这篇⽂章的妙处在于，它尝试跳出我们熟悉的探索范围，把⽬光跳过了云南的边界线。

    ⾸先，我们知道最早的病原载体是蝙蝠。⽽云南，和其南⽅边境线外的缅甸、⽼挝和越 南都有蝙蝠栖息的场所。虽然云南的菊头蝠带有SARS-CoV-2的相近病毒，但是这种 蝙蝠在南⽅边境线外的各国都有发现。⽽这些地区的蝙蝠种类繁多，这样的⽣物多样性 对病毒的进化也许起到了⼀些重要的作⽤。

    另外⼀个有趣的思考是为什么越南感染的⼈数和死亡⼈数如此的少？⼀亿⼈⼝只有300 确诊，⽽且没有死亡⼈数。这意味着越南和附近国的⼈⼝中已经普遍有了对这类病毒的 抗体。那么在有抗体的⼈群中，即使有病毒在传播也很难被得知。但当这种病毒传染到 了没有抗体的⼈群中后，才会出现爆发。 

但⽆论源头在哪里，我们现在有的数据和知识都还很难确切的讲述这次的全球疫情到底是从哪里，⼜是如何传染到全球的。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人财经 || 奇怪的复苏— 铜价金价同上涨

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491238&idx=1&sn=7191a48d0b442fac2e13040afe1e8b92&chksm=fba04d01ccd7c417bfd32862d01710b1a7e67eedb2531332a67875119a86799d4f365abad647#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

特别推荐：

写作天团 | 英文写作批改课 

英文写作批改课复盘（限时买四送一） 

PS: 关于昨天的文章，有很多小伙伴私信小编文章删除了，由于在异地旅游，没有一一回复，说声抱歉，需要阅读的小伙伴，可以转发公众号文章后截图私信小编（VX:education0603）即可获得，谢谢大家。

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Shining brightly

闪闪发光

英文部分选自经济学人20200725期Finance版块

Shining brightly

闪闪发光

An odd recovery means that copper and gold prices are both rising

奇怪的复苏— 铜价金价同上涨

There is, supposedly, a neat choreography to copper and gold prices. When one rises, the other tends to fall. In an economic downturn, for instance, gold climbs as investors seek a haven. Copper prices dip as manufacturing and construction slow. But these are unusual times, and gold and copper are moving in unusual ways. Rather than continue their customary do-si-do, they are leaping upwards together.

铜和金的价格像是被一种整齐的舞蹈编排着。当一个价格上涨，另一个价格则下行。例如在经济低迷时，投资者为了寻求避险（投资黄金），金价攀升，铜价却随着制造业和建筑业萧条而下跌。但在不寻常的时期里，金和铜的价格走势也不走寻常路。它们不再如通常般背对背换位舞步，而是同时向上飞涨。

注：

1. red-hot：adj. Red-hot is used to describe a person or thing that is very popular, especially someone who is very good at what they do or something that is new and exciting. 炙手可热的; 热门的

2. do-si-do：n. a square-dance figure in which dancers pass each other with right shoulders close or touching and circle back to back 跳方形舞时男女舞伴背对背换位舞步

The price of copper surpassed $6,000 a tonne in June, up about 30% since the depths of March. Gold this month topped $1,800 an ounce, approaching a record reached in 2011. Many analysts reckon it may exceed $2,000 this year or next. As the world continues to reel from covid-19, the economic outlook is uncertain and the recovery uneven from one country to the next. For those betting on gold and copper, this has proved a winning formula.

6月，铜价突破每吨6000美元，相较于三月的最低价格上涨了约30%。本月金价超过每盎司1800美元，接近2011年创下的记录。许多分析师预计金价将在今年或明年超过2000美元大关。由于全球依旧受新冠病毒的影响，经济前景仍不确定，不同国家的经济恢复程度也各不相同。对于那些在金和铜上押注的人来说，已找到了制胜之道。

注：

reel：v. If someone reels, they move about in an unsteady way as if they are going to fall. 踉跄

Gold started its recent climb from an already lofty perch. The ascent began at the end of 2018, as a trade war between America and China clouded the prospects for economic growth. Sinking interest rates in America lowered the yield on ten-year inflation-indexed Treasury bonds, making gold shine brighter. From November 2018 to late 2019 the price of the yellow metal jumped by about 25%, to $1,515.

此次攀升前，金价已经处于高位。金价上涨始于2018年末，彼时的中美贸易战给经济增长笼罩了一层阴影。美国降低利率使得十年期通胀指数国债的收益率降低，这令黄金显得更加闪耀。从2018年11月到2019年末，黄金价格上涨至1515美元，涨幅约25%，。

Now covid-19 is propelling gold to even more vertiginous heights. Investors are scrambling for security, fearing a prolonged downturn as the virus continues to ravage giant economies such as America and Brazil. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds attracted $40bn in the first half of the year, a record. The dollar has weakened, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies to buy gold. Rates remain low. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in June that he was not even “thinking about thinking about” raising them. China, hit first by the virus, is recovering first, too, offering further upside. It is gold’s biggest retail market, and more shopping there would lift prices higher.

当下的疫情将金价推到了一个更高的位置。由于新冠病毒仍在美国和巴西等大型经济体肆虐，投资者争先恐后地追求安全性，害怕经济经历长期下滑。黄金ETF在今年上半年吸引了400亿美元，创下记录。美元走弱，对于其他货币的持有者来说，购买黄金更加便宜。利率维持在低位。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在6月份表示，他甚至都没有考虑过要去考虑提高利率这个问题。最先被疫情侵袭的中国也最先恢复，这为金价提供了进一步上涨空间。中国是全球最大的黄金零售市场，销售增长会提高黄金的价格。

注：

Vertiginous: adj, 令人眩晕的。 

Copper’s rise this year may be even more striking. Its price sank by more than a quarter from January to mid-March when covid-19 spread across China, which accounts for about half of the red metal’s consumption. Now, however, efforts to stimulate China’s economy are spurring investment. In June a tracker of sector-level demand for copper in China used by Citigroup, a bank, rose by 5.5% on the year, its biggest jump in over two years.

今年铜价的上涨可能更为惊人。1月至3月中旬当新冠病毒在中国蔓延时，其价格下跌了四分之一以上，中国占世界铜消费约50%。而现在，中国推动经济的举措刺激了投资。6月份，花旗银行（Citigroup）追踪了中国行业层面对铜的需求，同比增长5.5％，为两年来最大涨幅。

注：

Sank：下降，减少，下跌；If something sinks to a lower level or standard, it falls to that level or standard.

As China invests to recover from the pandemic, though, the Americas are still grappling with it, explains Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs, a bank. Because copper production is concentrated in South America, that has constrained supply. Some mines in Peru, shut because of the virus, are only slowly resuming production, points out Susan Bates of Morgan Stanley, another bank. In Chile, where mines have been operating with reduced staff, the deferral of needed maintenance may restrict supply in the months to come. And miners may strike, further threatening output.

投行高盛（Goldman Sachs）的杰夫·柯里（Jeff Currie）解释说，尽管中国大力投资以期经济从疫情中恢复，但是美洲国家却仍在努力抗击疫情。由于铜的生产集中在南美洲，因此供应受限。另一家投行摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的苏珊·贝茨（Susan Bates）指出，秘鲁一些矿山因病毒而关闭，目前也只是缓慢开始恢复生产。在智利，矿山的员工数量一直在减少，因此推迟进行必要的维护，也可能会限制未来几个月的供应。矿工还可能会罢工，若是则将进一步减产。

注：

1.grappling with：v. 扭打；努力克服

2.deferral n. 延期；迟延；缓役

It is unclear how long copper prices can be sustained by investment in one place and infection in another. The metal’s traditional engine—strong global economic growth—is sputtering. Continued infections in America or a resurgence of the virus elsewhere could further depress demand for appliances, cars and other copper-dependent goods.

一方兴起，另一方深陷疫情，因此目前尚不清楚铜价上涨还会持续多久。金属价格的传统引擎——强劲的全球经济增长正在放缓脚步。美国疫情持续恶化，或其他国家病毒二次爆发或将进一步抑制消费者对家电、汽车和其他铜依赖型商品的需求。

That said, on July 21st European leaders agreed to new stimulus; and demand for copper may rise as countries outside China invest in electric grids and solar farms veined with the metal. Gold’s rally may be even more persistent, argues Mr Currie, supported by factors that linger through the 2020s: high debt levels that weigh on the dollar, and low interest rates. The journey skyward may not be over yet.

据说，今年7月21号，欧洲领导人同意了新的刺激方案。随着中国以外的国家投资电网和带有金属纹理的太阳能发电厂，铜的需求可能会上升。库里（Currie）先生认为，金价的上涨甚至可能更加持久，21世纪20年代持续存在的各种因素也印证了这一观点：影响美元的高债务水平和低利率。（金铜价格）这场上升的旅程或许还没有结束。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Alex，女，小研究员一枚，经济学人粉丝

Chao，男，爱读书思考的DPhil Candidate，TE粉丝

Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

图1，红色：COMEX黄金；蓝色：COMEX铜

从数据上看其实铜和黄金没有很明显的背离趋势，尤其是从09年初到16年初两者的走势十分正同步，16年和19年两个年份呈显著的分离趋势。

再来看看美元和黄金的走势。

图2，红色：COMEX黄金，黄色：美元指数

黄金和美元的背离趋势比较明显，因为黄金是基于美元定价，所以美元的波动都会在黄金价格上得以体现。11年至16年黄金大幅上升下降，以及19年中旬至现在，两波黄金的走势是由于国际主要经济体低迷，而国际流动资本大幅投资黄金的结果。

图3，红色：黄金；黄色：中国GDP增长率

相比之下，铜和金的相关性几乎没有，各自有其影响因素，前者主要是美元、国际资本避险情绪，后者是全球上游工业生产需求（供给侧产能的影响不是很大）。例如，从09年到12年，黄金的大幅升值来源于美元贬值（美元利率已经降到0%，外汇市场上贬无可贬）和国际资本的持续买入；而铜的影响因素主要来源于工业生产国，中国是世界上最大的工业生产国，因而铜的需求端变量主要看中国。09年到12年因为中国货币政策财政政策的齐放水，四万亿也推动了对铜价的抬升，但从12年中国经济增速换挡开始，铜价又开始趋势性下降。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人社论 || 太空探索

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491217&idx=1&sn=1b2976def1898114bcf87798bf3af213&chksm=fba04d36ccd7c42029bcf465dc16a0557b0bbf0920d200ff155b5472c4a2dea809a5da6c3b94#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Space exploration

太空探索

英文部分选自经济学人20200725期Leaders版块

Space exploration

太空探索

Tread softly

小心翼翼 如履薄冰

Mars may be a pristine ecosystem. It should be protected

火星的生态系统可能还很原始，理应受到保护。

Earth aside, Mars is the most-studied planet in the solar system. Satellites zip around it. Rovers trundle over its surface. A helicopter may soon clatter through its skies, for a clutch of new missions are either on their way or planned to launch soon.

撇开地球不谈，火星是太阳系中被人们研究得最多的行星。卫星在其轨道上穿梭如织，探测器在其地表缓慢而行。过不了多久，也许还会有直升飞机在其上空轰鸣，毕竟当前为数不少的火星探测器要么正在进行，要么已蓄势待发。

The motive behind all this is the hope that Mars, like Earth, may support life—or may have done so in the past . And, as technology spreads and rocketry gets cheaper, more people want to join the search for what would, in effect, be Biosphere 2. At first, Mars was the province of America and the Soviet Union. Japan tried and failed to explore it in 1998. Europe sent its first mission in 2003. India launched its in 2013. The United Arab Emirates joined the fray on July 20th. And China, after a failure in 2011, dispatched another attempt on July 23rd. The time is not far off when even private missions might be feasible.

人们之所以如此关注火星，无非是希望火星能像地球一样承载生命——甚至曾经有过生命。随着科技的推广和火箭成本的下降，越来越多的人想要加入追寻生物圈2号之旅。起初，火星只是美苏两国的专有领域。日本在1998年尝试探测火星却折戟而归。欧洲在2003年成功完成第一次火星探测。印度在2013年发射了自己的火星探测器。阿联酋也在7月20日加入了火星探测大军。而中国自从2011年首次尝试失败后，于7月23日再次发射了火星探测器。私有领域开展火星探测计划或许也为时不远了。

Behind all this enthusiasm, though, is a worry. If Mars is sterile after all, or if any life which once dwelled there is now extinct, what people do to the planet by way of contamination with Earthly bugs probably does not matter. But if Martians do exist, even if they are but lowly bacteria (or something vaguely equivalent), that would mean Mars is a pristine ecosystem. Those wishing to investigate it should therefore tread lightly, for reasons of both moral and scientific prudence.

但在这些高涨的热情背后，尚有一项担忧。如果火星毫无生命迹象，或者曾有的生命早已灭绝，那么不管人们从地球带给火星任何污染，或许都无关紧要。但如果火星生命真的存在，哪怕存在的只是低级细菌（或者类似的低级形态生命），那都意味着火星仍是一个原始生态系统。无论是出于道德审慎还是科学审慎，探索火星都得小心翼翼。

Astrobiologists identify two kinds of risk in putative encounters with alien life forms that are not actually toting ray guns. The first, “forward contamination”, is that hardy micro-organisms from Earth might hitch a ride with a space probe and set up shop on landing. The second, “back contamination”, concerns the reverse: that samples returned to Earth might bring alien microbes with them.

天体生物学家认为，假如与外星生命形式相遇，即使它们实际上并不（像科幻小说中那样）携带着射线枪，我们依然会面临两种风险。首先是“正向污染”，即地球上的耐寒微生物可能会搭乘太空探测器，在着陆后繁衍生息。第二则是“反向污染“，与前者相反：返回地球的样本可能带回外来微生物。

The first risk is no longer theoretical. Scientists reckon that the rovers and landers already on Mars each play host to tens of thousands of microscopic Earthlings. Shielded from radiation by the probes themselves, these bacteria are probably dormant—but not dead.

第一种风险已不再是设想。科学家预计，每个已在火星着陆的探测器和着陆器上都携带着成千上万个地球微生物。由于探测器屏蔽了辐射，这些微生物可能处于休眠状态---但并未死亡。

Back contamination would require samples to be returned from Mars. That has not happened yet. But America’s newest rover is designed to stash samples of Martian regolith away, to be returned to Earth by a follow-up mission in 2031.

反向污染会在样品从火星送回时发生。目前这种情况尚未出现。不过，美国设计了最新的火星车，用来储存火星风化层的样本，并将在2031年通过后续任务送回地球。

Back contamination is the less worrying of the two. Lurid suggestions that Martian bugs might infect human beings ignore the fact that their biochemistry would almost certainly be too different from that of terrestrial organisms for this to happen. Sealed laboratories could provide reassurance for sticklers.

两者相较，反向污染倒不那么让人担忧。有人认为，火星上的细菌可能会感染人类。此番耸人听闻的说法忽略了一个事实：这些细菌的生物化学特性与地球生物几乎天差地别，不大可能出现这种情况。况且，封闭实验室也能让那些坚持己见的人放宽心。

Forward contamination is more troubling. Some echo terrestrial worries about conservation, arguing that humans have a moral obligation not to damage other ecosystems. Others fret about the scientific implications. Life on Mars, whether extant or extinct, could be one of the most significant discoveries in the history of biology. Contamination risks disrupting understanding of that scientific bounty.

正向污染则麻烦得多。有些人的想法和地球上人们对环境保护的担忧不谋而合，认为人类有道德义务不去破坏其他生态系统。还有些人则担心科学上的影响。火星上的生命，无论是当今存在还是已经消亡，都将是生物学史上最重大的发现。一旦受到污染，人类对其的认识过程可能会受到影响。

Countries are already required, by the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, to worry about these risks. But this treaty is light on specifics, leaving individual space agencies to come up with their own rules. This is better than nothing. But as more countries head for Mars, the case grows for a formal, global approach.

1967年签署的《外层空间条约》要求各个国家（在实施太空探索时）必须考虑到这些风险。但该条约鲜有涉及具体要求，因此各国航天机构纷纷制定自己的规则。（尽管这些规则五花八门），但有总比没有好。然而，随着越来越多的国家想要探索火星，制定一个全球统一的正式规章显得十分重要。

Plenty of ideas are worth discussing. Some advocate risk-management, in which the greatest care is taken when exploring those parts of Mars most likely to contain life, though lower standards apply in harsher regions. “Reversible exploration” holds that, if life is discovered, humanity should retrieve the probes that already dot the Martian surface, along with their microbial passengers. And should private individuals be required to follow the same rules as nation-states?

关于这一点，有很多想法值得探讨。有人提倡“风险管理说”，即在探索火星上最有可能包含生命的区域时，要格外小心，在环境更恶劣（但无生命迹象）的地区反而可以采用更低的标准。而“可逆探索说”则认为，一旦发现生命迹象，人类就应收回已经遍布火星表面的探测器，以及他们携带的微生物。此外，个人是否应该遵守与民族国家相同的规则？

International co-operation is not a popular idea just now. Never mind: it should be tried anyway. Nationalism and protectionism can wane as well as wax, and alien-hunting is the work of decades. Counter-measures need not be expensive—experience suggests they add 10% or less to the cost of a probe. And it is hard to think of a more intrinsically global problem than ensuring that one planet’s life forms do not contaminate another’s. 

当前，国际合作并不被广泛接受。不过没关系，这值得一试。民族主义和保护主义兴盛有时，衰退亦有时，而寻找外星生物并非一朝一夕的事。应对措施并不需要太多的资金投入——经验表明，每个探测器的成本最多也就增加10%。而且，很难想象有什么问题比确保一个星球的生命形态不受另一个星球污染更具全球性。

翻译组：

Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者
Desmond，男，即将读研，悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Rex，男，口译硕士，集书狂魔，经学钢粉

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

    曾经想象过自己是如何死亡，如果可以选择的话。那时候觉得最酷的大概有以下几种：为爱而死，可能是和别人决斗，或者她身患重病，只能用我的生命作为代价来换回她的；为义而亡，为了心中的大义，为了人类的自由和幸福，慷慨就义；为梦而终，追随马斯克去往单程的火星之旅。

    随着年纪的增大，渐渐觉得第一种想法比较幼稚了，因为人活着大概不仅仅是为了自己而活，因为你身上有着你必须去承担的责任，孝敬父母，养育子女，陪伴妻子。如果只是任性地为了爱情而抛下眼前的一切，只能说是一种逃避责任的懦夫行径。

    随着眼界的开阔，慢慢感觉到了自己可能没有这种为了人类大义而英勇牺牲的资格，因为我可能只是平凡人，有着平凡的价值，大概最重要的价值就是顾好自己的小家了，人类大概率是不需要我来就义的，至少排队的人群里我不在前列。

    所以我能够有机会实现的死法可能就剩下追随马斯克了，当然他是一个争议很大的人物，我之前也谈过对他的看法，所以不再赘述了，只是觉得，如果他能抛下一切踏上去往火星的单程之旅，我有什么理由对这个男人不报以最大的敬意呢？而最大的敬意大概就是和他一同前往了。至少我觉得这趟旅程和欧洲人踏足美利坚的国土有着天壤之别，虽然表面看来都是为了理想，但是他们只是为了自己或者自己的后代能有更好的生活，而我们，我们则是为了全人类能有更好的生活，或者在将来地球不再适合做我们的家园时有个备选方案，大概没有比这更加伟大的事业了吧。从这个角度去思考当下的各国纷争，你死我活的抢夺利益，真是渺小且可悲。

    这个当然不会只是一个心中念想，我也正在不断提高自己，努力做一名训练有素的工程师，或者是一名合格的新家园拓荒者，我看过报名的条件，这就是我努力的方向，我前行的动力，这就是我的中国梦，世界梦。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491211&idx=1&sn=9b3ddddda1518325990e80a55bd86bd3&chksm=fba04d2cccd7c43ac6b3ddd14908321924a68b7a200fc0e8d6096791b2b8aab7cc3024a3dced#rd

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | Tread softly

https://www.economist.com/node/21790040?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Sixty seconds of fame

https://www.economist.com/node/21790039?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Shining brightly

https://www.economist.com/node/21790077?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | The bat signal

https://www.economist.com/node/21790007?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | A country’s conscience

https://www.economist.com/node/21789967?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

英文写作批改课复盘（限时买4送1）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491208&idx=1&sn=19f6f5e7267cff76bd4c0558075bc53f&chksm=fba04d2fccd7c43949a5d947449e829b49beff7cd8cfa3f427b69d33cf3989532ecb6fc93c6d#rd

01

关于写作天团

前几天发了推文 写作天团 | 英文习作批改课 ，受到了很多小伙伴的关注，小编也在群里通过小游戏随机抽奖，选择两位幸运学员，他们接受了免费批改（批改结果大家可以扫码进写作批改意向群，小编会把批改结果发社群里），反馈非常不错。

第一位小伙伴的反馈如下：

第二位小伙伴反馈如下：

感觉发现了宝藏小姐姐，真的改得很清晰，而且完全get 到了我要说什么。

很多时候找老师和找男女朋友道理是一样的，遇到一个对牛弹琴不在一个频道上的老师，那简直就是悲剧，而如果遇到一个能够get到自己点的老师，真的是非常难得的一件事。

02

关于定价

有一些小伙伴私信小编，看了老师的批改结果都觉得特别好，对写作批改也很感兴趣，但是价格感觉有点贵，小编在这里解释下几点：

第一：批改文章的老师均为雅思写作8分及以上，写作和批改实力过硬，并真心实意为提高大家写作能力负责；相较于很多其他渠道（如某宝、其他公众号或网络批改课），优势明显。

第二：大家可以扫码入群仔细了解一下，老师的批改有没有用心，能力够不够，因为这是一个双向选择的过程，如果您觉得老师的能力不行，那您可以选择其他平台，其他平台可能只要99或者109，但是需要改两次，一方面浪费自己的时间，这个相信很多有小伙伴也深有体会。

第三：截止20200805前，报写作批改课买4次送1次，相当于5次800元，每次课160元，如果您还觉得贵，那真的只能说声抱歉了。

最后小编再次感谢大家得支持，我们一定加油，写作课已经在摩拳擦掌之中，相信不久的将来即将和大家见面。

---End---

经济学人逝者 || 意大利作曲家埃尼奥·莫里康内

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491196&idx=1&sn=8549d85b161948dee41a2558e682527f&chksm=fba04ddbccd7c4cdb2b0119de3a5d5f0dbcce28003e175a7d478e547ede9428ea7d668df1dfa#rd

1

导读

埃尼奥·莫里康内为何被称为配乐大师？

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Man on a mission

配乐教父

英文部分选自经济学人20200718期逝者版块

Obituary: Ennio Morricone

讣告：埃尼奥·莫里康内

Man on a mission

配乐教父

Ennio Morricone, composer, died on July 6th, aged 91

作曲家埃尼奥·莫里康内于7月6日逝世，享年91岁。

The theme may have been written well over half a century ago, but in less than three minutes you hear everything that came to matter most to him in a lifetime of composing. There is the two-note howl at the Moon—once heard, never forgotten. Musically, it is that rare fusion of heart and mind and as recognisable, in its way, as the opening notes of Beethoven’s 5th Symphony. Then there are the classic musical motifs, like those Richard Wagner scattered through the “Ring” cycle, that mark out the good man, the bad and the ugly. And then there is the freewheeling range of sounds with which he chose to make that music: the whistling, the yodelling, the gunfire and the squeaky ocarina, an ancient Italian wind instrument that looks like a sweet potato and is better known to a younger generation as the soundtrack of a Nintendo video game.

这首主题曲或许早在半个多世纪前就已写就，但在不到三分钟内，你就能听到埃尼奥·莫里康内作曲生涯里对他而言最为重要的一切。曲子里有由两个音符演绎的对月狼嚎——一旦听过就永远忘不了。就音乐性而言，它是难得的心灵融合之作，编排形式与贝多芬《第五交响曲》的开篇音符一样具有辨识度。里面也有经典的主题旋律——如同理查德·瓦格纳穿插在《尼伯龙根的指环》套曲中的那些旋律——用来分别表现好人、坏人和丑恶之人。再然后还有他挑来创作此曲的五花八门的声音：口哨声、约德尔调歌声、枪炮声和嘎吱作响的奥卡里纳声。奥卡里纳是一种古老的意大利管乐器，形似红薯，年轻一代更为熟知的是它被用来为任天堂一款电子游戏配乐。

注：

Mitifs：an arrangement of notes that is often repeated in a musical work 〔音乐作品的〕主旋律

The range and audacity of his music surprised those who might have assumed that a working-class Catholic upbringing, not a mile from the Vatican, would have produced someone conventional rather than creative. But the Roman enclave of Trastevere, where he was born just after Benito Mussolini came to power, was an unusual place. A historical outsider-land on the far side of the Tiber, it has tall spindly houses that, for centuries, have been home to artisanal guilds, small businesses, ancient synagogues and enterprising Jewish and Catholic families. Above the winding cobbled streets, with their medieval shopfronts and wooden shutters, the Roman light shines through the pine trees in the hills with cinematic luminosity. His friend, Sergio Leone, who directed “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” and many of the other films that made him famous, lived just a few minutes away. Both boys attended a private Catholic school nearby, and for a while were even in the same year.

莫里康内的音乐涉猎广泛、创作大胆。一些人对此感到惊讶，他们可能会以为，梵蒂冈附近天主教工人家庭这样的出身，会培养出一个传统的而不是有创造力的人。但是罗马飞地特拉斯提弗列——莫里康内在贝尼托·墨索里尼刚掌权之际出生于此——是一处不寻常的地方。这片位于台伯河另一边、历史悠久的飞地，林立着高窄的房子，几个世纪以来一直是手工业行会、小型工商业、古老的犹太会堂和锐意进取的犹太家庭和天主教家庭的栖息地。蜿蜒的鹅卵石街道两边排列着中世纪店面和木质百叶窗；罗马城的灯光透过山坡上的松树从高处照下来，像影院里的投影一样明亮。他的朋友赛尔乔·莱昂内导演就住在相隔几分钟路程的地方。莫里康内为莱昂内执导的包括《好家伙，坏家伙，丑家伙》（译者注：又名《黄金三镖客》）在内的许多电影和其他一些电影配乐，并由此成名。小时候，他们俩曾就读于附近的同一所私立天主教学校，两人一度甚至在同一年级。

注：

飞地（指在本国境内的隶属另一国的一块领土）；被包围的领土；被包围物

His father, a professional musician, and his mother, who ran a small textile business, brought up four siblings: Ennio, Franco, Adriana and Maria. A fifth child, Aldo, the youngest, died at three when he was fed cherries by a nanny who did not know he was allergic to them. For a while, understandably perhaps, the ten-year-old would-be composer thought he might become a doctor.

莫里康内的父亲是一位职业音乐人，母亲经营小型纺织品生意。家里有四个孩子：埃尼奥、弗朗哥、阿德里安娜和玛利亚。第五个也是最小的孩子阿尔多，三岁时因保姆不知情喂食樱桃，过敏夭折。于是似乎可以理解，这位十岁的未来作曲家一度以为自己长大后会成为一名医生。

But two other passions also exerted their pull. He took up chess after finding a small chess manual in a secondhand shop, and for a while played it obsessively with three friends who lived in the same block of flats in Via delle Fratte. At the same time he was drawn to music and wrote his first composition at six, having watched his father practise the trumpet at home every day and heard him perform with his light-music orchestra on the radio.

但是还有两项爱好也对他产生了吸引力。他在一家二手商店发现了一本小巧的国际象棋棋谱，便开始下棋。有一段时间，他着迷一般地和住在弗拉特大道同一公寓街区的三个朋友下棋。同时，因为每天在家看着父亲练习小号，在收音机里听他和轻音乐管弦乐队的演奏，莫里康内爱上了音乐。6岁时，他写出了自己的第一首曲子。

Chess was silent music, he liked to say, and playing it was a bit like composing. But whereas he was a conventional chess player, leading always with a queen and pursuing the logic of calculation rather than playing by instinct, music set him free. He composed for the stage and the radio, but quit the national radio broadcaster, rai, when they wouldn’t let him freelance on the side.

他总爱说，国际象棋是无声的音乐，而下象棋有点像是作曲。然而下棋时他走法保守，总是需要顾及如何走好“皇后”棋子，追求计算的逻辑而不是凭直觉发挥。而音乐却让他自由释放。他为舞台剧和电台作曲，却放弃了国家广播电台RAI的工作，因为他们不让他在作为正式雇员的同时还兼任电台音乐创作者。

注：

1.on the side：作为兼职，作为副业

 2.In 1956, Morricone started to support his family by playing in a jazz band and arranging pop songs for the Italian broadcasting service RAI. He was hired by RAI in 1958, but quit his job on his first day at work when he was told that broadcasting of music composed by employees was forbidden by a company rule.

Branching out on his own, he refused to let himself be distracted, one reason why he continued living in Trastevere, travelled little and never bothered to learn to speak English. Hollywood, when it decided it wanted him, had to come to Rome. When his music came to him, it was fully formed. He would rise before dawn to write, composing at his desk on 12-staff paper with a pencil rather than experimentally at the piano. His wife, Maria Travia, occasionally wrote the lyrics to his songs. He would play her his work, and only if she approved did he then show it to anyone else.

独立开拓事业的莫里康内不允许自己分心，这也是他继续住在特拉斯提弗列、很少出游以及从不劳神学说英语的一个原因。堂堂好莱坞，一旦决定要用他，也得躬身来到罗马。当他的音乐灵感涌现时，都是以完整篇章的形式。他会在黎明前起床创作，坐在书桌旁用铅笔在12行五线谱纸上作曲，而不是在钢琴上边试弹边写。妻子玛丽亚·特拉维亚有时会给他的曲子填词。他会为她演奏自己的作品。只有妻子认可后，他才弹给别人听。

注：

1. branch out: to start to do an activity that you have not done before, especially in your work or business涉足（新工作）；拓展（新业务）

2. come to sb: to enter your mind被想出

3. staff:(=stave) a set of five lines on which music is written 五线谱

A daily routine allowed him to experiment, first with Il Gruppo, an avant-garde free-improvisation collective in Rome for which he played the trumpet and the flute. But it was the soaring landscape of the cinema that allowed his composing to take flight. He liked using all the orchestra’s resources in his arrangements; his musicians would often find themselves playing instruments that they had never played before—the military snare drum, the jaw harp and, increasingly, the Fender Rhodes electronic piano. He wasn’t showing off; every note had a job to do. Changing one thing changed everything.

每天例行的练习让他可以涉足实验音乐，最初是跟Il Gruppo团体合作，这是罗马的一个先锋即兴音乐团体，他为他们演奏小号和长笛。但却是电影那高远开阔的光影世界让他的音乐创作得以纵情翱翔。他喜欢把管弦乐队所有的乐器都融入他的作品中。他的乐手常会演奏碰都没碰过的乐器，如军鼓、口弦琴、以及使用频率越来越高的芬达罗兹电子钢琴。他并不是在显摆；每一个音符都有它的任务。改变一处就改变了一切。

注：

Il Gruppo: (Gruppo di Improvvisazione Nuova Consonanza) was an avant-garde free-improvisation group considered the first experimental composers collective. The collective was formed by Italian composer Franco Evangelisti in Rome in 1964.

In time he came to realise that his approach to composing was like his favourite grandmaster, Bobby Fischer’s approach to playing chess: a series of sudden and surprising moves. Cinema-goers sensed how he melded thinking and feeling, that he played with sounds that spoke to his romantic nature and was able to conjure up, in music, heroic figures who resonated with audiences around the world, however different they might be.

随着时间的流逝，他最终意识到自己的作曲方式与他最喜欢的象棋大师——鲍比·费舍尔——的下棋方式如出一辙：一系列突然而令人意外的招式。影迷可以觉察到他是如何将思想和感觉结合起来的，可以感知到他在作曲中融入了体现自己浪漫天性的声音，感知到他能在音乐里营造出引发全世界观众共鸣的英雄人物，无论各地的观众有多么不同。

It was the music he wrote for “A Fistful of Dollars” that turned the unknown Clint Eastwood from a faux-western cowboy into a hero worthy of Homer—honourable, fearless and with a kind hidden heart—and the opening chords of Johann Sebastian Bach’s first song of St Matthew’s Passion, “Come, ye daughters, share my mourning” just before the rat-a-tat-tat drumbeat of French soldiers pouring out of their trucks, that helped transform GilloPontecorvo’s “Battle of Algiers” from a story about a nasty colonial spat into a tragic historical epic. As with the ghostly harmonica in “Once Upon a Time in the West” and the soaring theme the Jesuit Father Gabriel plays on the oboe as he tries to bring God to the Amazon in Roland Joffé’s “The Mission”, many of his compositions outlived the films they were written for.

他为《荒野大镖客》创作的音乐使得原本名不见经传的克林特·伊斯特伍德从冒牌西部牛仔一跃而成如《荷马史诗》里的角色般伟岸的英雄——可敬、无畏、内心善良。而他在配乐里加入约翰·塞巴斯蒂安·巴赫《马太受难曲》第一首歌的开篇和弦“来吧，女儿们，与我同哀共悼”，且这正好用在法国士兵从卡车上倾泻而出时搭配的鼓点声之前，于是这使得吉洛·庞特科洛的《阿尔及尔之战》由原本恶劣的殖民地纷争故事转变成悲剧性的历史史诗。正如《西部往事》中幽灵般的口琴声，以及罗兰·约非执导的《教会》中耶稣会神父加布里埃尔试图将上帝带到亚马逊时用双簧管演奏的激荡人心的主题音乐，他的许多电影配乐作品都比电影本身更经久不衰。

Music to remember them by

以音乐铭记

Visiting journalists sometimes failed to realise he was having them on when he gently insisted that people go to the cinema to watch films, not to hear them. Deep down he knew that music could make a film unforgettable. That was why Sergio Leone so often had him compose the music before shooting started, rather than the reverse, which is the way films are usually made, or even insisted the actors listen to the soundtrack to get them into character. He had just one piece of advice when approached by John Zorn, then a budding cinema composer: “Forget the film. Think of the record.” Millions would agree.

登门采访的记者们没能意识到，当他温和地坚称人们去电影院是为了看电影而不是听电影时，他其实是在捉弄他们。他深知音乐能够让一部电影刻骨铭心。正因为此，赛尔乔·莱昂内总是在电影未开拍前就请他作曲，即便通常情况都是先拍电影再配乐；莱昂内甚至要求演员们听他作的原声配乐以便更好地进入角色。后来崭露头角的电影作曲家约翰·佐恩请教他时，他只给了一条建议：“忘掉电影，专注唱片。”数百万人会赞同。

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Yvonne，努力中的口译新人

Lucia，英语专业学生，经济学人爱好者

校对组：

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Qianna，追求专业的非英专，很讲逻辑，英伦摇滚迷
Dave，实力校对，肌肉男大学教师，文学翻译+CATTI一笔二口

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Mona，悦读悦译，以译会友

加入讣告组一年有余，今天谈谈个人眼中的《经济学人》讣告。

讣告对象主要是对欧美文化产生一定影响的新近去逝者，有音乐家、歌手、作曲家（如本期的埃尼奥·莫里康内）、美食家、科学家、医生、作家等等，有趣的人物如的士司机、书商、摄影师，还有体现媒体立场担当的描写对象，如慰安妇受害者、印尼国家灾害管理局发言人、曼哈顿检察官，更有一些别出心裁的对象，如奥乔屈尔冰川。

讣告文章整体偏散文风格，并非对逝者生平的概括，而是通过其生前的逸闻趣事，从侧面映射出一段鲜活的生命旅程，大事小情，跃然纸上，娓娓道来，类似纪实风格，鲜有褒贬评论。当然对于中国或华裔逝者除外，写这些对象的文章通常不乏西方文化偏见的有色眼镜下的窥探，政治色彩浓厚，不宜译介。对此，从阅读与悦读的角度看，私以为，文章还是飘逸些好，绕上政治，散文就变了味，不伦不类了。

再说说讣告的发布时间。有时很及时，及时到让人怀疑，是不是人还未去世，讣告已经写好了。有时很拖沓，时隔一两个月，大底写手也有青黄不接的时候？有时候，大家一看名人去世，兴冲冲地猜测下周讣告会不会是这位，然而，多数时候是“谓必”。最令人失望的是，一篇名人的讣告姗姗来迟，在其它知名报纸杂志发表此人讣告之后很久才出来，晚也就罢了，质量还很牵强。总而言之，看看就好，不必执着。

行文方面，讣告相较其他栏目文章难懂，主要因为涉及许多背景知识，比如文化、典故、史实等，需要做大量的检索查证。这也是讣告翻译的难点之一。讣告喜欢用各种复杂的句式结构，虚词较多，建议泛读者可以不求甚解。另外，文章多注重前后呼应，段与段之间衔接呼应，阅读时宜加强语篇意识，整体联系起来理解。

读讣告的好处就是，透过一篇小文，一窥逝者的人生，或精彩，或顺利，或坎坷，别有一番风味。讣告比传记来得轻巧随意，在这里也可以“阅人无数”。从尤里·卢日科夫读到自信与魄力，从“疯子麦克”霍尔读到人性的偏执与激进，从凯瑟琳·哈姆林读到医者仁心的善良，从约瑟夫•洛厄里读到如海水涛涛的正义，从埃内斯托·卡德纳尔读到勇气与坚强……每一段人生都能引发对人生的审视，因而，文章之外的自我领悟远超文章本身。

最后，谈谈整体文章水准。初接触讣告栏目，觉得很像《负暄琐话》，后来看《不够知己》，似乎也有类似的影子。《负暄琐话》一直被喻为今世之《世说新语》，其笔调更为闲适；而《不够知己》则富于十足的英式幽默，健笔如流水，一气呵成，满纸生趣，足显作者学识和笔力。站在这山望见那山高，相比之下，讣告有时的文章稍嫌积淀不够，近期似乎有套路化倾向，犹如美式速溶咖啡，一口下去就过去了，缺少令人回味的文气，或许，这也与如今快餐文化盛行有关。而《世说新语》和《琐话》这些则像可以细品的茶，闲时翻翻，悠从中来，睡前看看，舒缓又助眠。以上仅个人拙见，作为《经济学人》的忠实读者，还是希望可以一直品读到更好的文章，我们拭目以待吧。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人科技 || 无敌小钢炮

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491189&idx=1&sn=6c1bee56a8cc3a72d0fdf89ffa1af564&chksm=fba04dd2ccd7c4c46a555d36af88dc4f4bcac0692ce44ce24a3436cfb77fd79d246246e2d2e1#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
Step by step, 爱翻译爱研究的理工男，经济学人铁粉，二笔二口冲刺者

英语写作批改课上线啦（点击进入）

后续还将陆续推出更多系列写作课程，敬请期待！！

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 The Incredible Shrinking Machine

无敌小钢炮

英文部分选自经济学人20200718期科技版块

The Incredible Shrinking Machine

无敌小钢炮

A new material helps transistors become vanishingly small

新材料让晶体管变得极小

And more transistors mean more computing power

更多的晶体管意味着更强的计算力

There is an old joke in the semiconductor business that the number of people predicting the death of Moore’s law doubles every two years. This refers to another prediction, made in the 1970s by Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, a giant chipmaker, that the number of transistors which can be crammed onto a silicon chip doubles every two years. When that number exceeded 1m in the mid-1980s, some said the rate of progress had to slow down. By 2005 the number of transistors on a chip rose above 1bn, which many thought was unsustainable. But there are now around 50bn transistors jostling for space on some chips and producers are gunning for more.

半导体行业长期以来流传着一个段子：预测摩尔定律将会失效的人数每两年翻一番。这涉及到另一个预测。在20世纪70年代，芯片制造大户英特尔的创始人之一戈登·摩尔预测：硅芯片上可加装的晶体管数量每两年翻一番。在20世纪80年代中期，晶体管数量超过100万个，那时就有人说，这个势头将会放缓。到2005年，单个芯片上的晶体管数量升至10亿以上，此时又有人说，这种情况无法持续下去。但是，如今一些芯片上的晶体管多达500亿个，一些芯片制造商对继续增加还雄心勃勃。

扩展阅读：芯片行业的困境

https://m.sohu.com/a/391979220_132567/?pvid=000115_3w_a&scm=0.0.0.0

In the current state of the art, the smallest components (transistors and diodes) made on a silicon chip are about seven nanometres (billionths of a metre) across. That is a thousandth of the diameter of a red blood cell. But problems are mounting. As components shrink, electrons start to leak from the connections between them, causing interference and unreliability. The prophets of doom have therefore returned. Once again, however, they look like being wrong. The answer to the electron-leakage problem is better insulation between chip components. And a group of researchers in South Korea and Britain think they have the insulator required. It is called thin-film amorphous boron nitride (a-BN).

在目前的技术水平下，硅芯片上能制成的最小元件（晶体管和二极管）的宽度约为7纳米（1纳米等于十亿分之一米），大概是血红细胞直径的千分之一。但是问题也越来越多。随着元件逐渐变小，电子开始从连接处泄漏出来，造成干扰和不稳定现象。质疑摩尔定律的人因此卷土重来。然而，他们似乎又失败了。电子泄漏问题的解决方案是提高元件之间的绝缘性。接着，来自韩国和英国的一组研究人员便找到了想要的绝缘体—薄膜非晶态氮化硼(a-BN)。

扩展阅读：为何7纳米制程成为半导体发展的瓶颈

http://m.elecfans.com/article/423307.html

The wonder that waits

见证奇迹

The backstory of this material is intriguing. Boron and nitrogen lie on either side of carbon in the periodic table, one consequence of which is that materials composed of equal numbers of boron and nitrogen atoms crystallise in the same ways that carbon does. There are, in other words, boron nitride equivalents of diamonds and graphite. There are also boron nitride versions of the tiny arrangements of carbon atoms known as fullerenes and nanotubes. So it was no surprise, after the creation in 2004 of yet another allotrope of carbon, graphene, which consists of single layers of atoms arranged in a hexagonal grid like a honeycomb, that it had a boron-nitride analogue. This has come to be known colloquially as white graphene.

这种材料背后的故事很有趣。在元素周期表中，硼和氮位于碳的两端，因此由相同数量的硼和氮原子组成的材料拥有与碳相同的结晶方式，也就是说存在和钻石、石墨结构类似的氮化硼。还有一些氮化硼类物质对应碳原子排列而成的一些微型材料，如富勒烯和纳米管。2004年，人们成功制备出碳的同素异形体石墨烯，它由单层原子组成，呈蜂窝状的六边形网格排列，而石墨烯存在一种氮化硼类似物，也便不足为奇。这种氮化硼材料俗称白色石墨烯。

To start with, white graphene was an also-ran in the new field of two-dimensional materials, as these sheets of atoms are often called. Real graphene, being incredibly strong and able to conduct heat and electricity extremely efficiently, was toted as a wonder material that might one day be used to make transistors much smaller and faster than the silicon-based variety, and thus keep Moore’s law ticking over. But for this purpose real graphene has a problem that is the obverse of its wonderfulness: it has no band gap.

首先，在二维材料（即这些原子薄膜的另一种称呼）新领域中，白色石墨烯曾经也不被看好。真正的石墨烯强度极大，且具有上佳的导热和导电性，因此被誉为奇迹材料，在将来也许可用于制造比硅基晶体管体积更小、速度更快的晶体管，使得摩尔定律能继续适用。但是，石墨烯由于没有带隙，在半导体领域的应用受阻。

知识扩展：

1. 零带隙：

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E9%9B%B6%E5%B8%A6%E9%9A%99/22388711

2. 石墨烯（Graphene）是目前已知的世界上最薄、最坚硬、导电性最好的纳米材料，具有优异的光学、电学、力学特性，在材料学、微纳加工、能源、生物医学和药物传递等方面具有重要的应用前景，被认为是一种未来革命性的材料。石墨烯可由石墨剥离而成，为单层片状结构.

3. 白色石墨烯（white graphite）是六方氮化硼的别称。它是最简单的硼氮高分子，结构和形成的白色石墨烯晶体也与石墨烯相似，具有颇为相近的晶体参数。氮化硼主要用于耐火材料、半导体固相掺杂剂、原子堆的结构材料、防中子辐射的包装材料、火箭发动机组成材料、高温润滑剂和脱模剂等领域。

A material’s band gap is a measure of the energy required for an electron to flow through it. A narrow band gap means that material is a conductor. A wide band gap makes it an insulator. Graphene’s band gap of zero, which is most unusual, makes it a very good conductor indeed. But to be a semiconductor, the type of material from which transistors are fabricated, requires a “Goldilocks” band gap that lies between the two extremes—neither too narrow nor too wide. Various methods of tinkering have produced versions of graphene which possess this fairy-tale property, but transistors made with them are, so far, confined to the laboratory.

材料的带隙是指电子穿过它所需要的能量。带隙窄意味着材料是导体，带隙宽则表明它是绝缘体。石墨烯的带隙为零，这是最异乎寻常的一点，即它是非常优质的导体。但是要成为半导体（制造晶体管的材料类型），需要具备两个极端之间的“金发姑娘”（Goldilocks）带隙——既不能太窄也不能太宽。科学家通过采用各种改进方法，已经生产出此种具有童话般特性的石墨烯；但迄今为止，以这种石墨烯为材料制造的晶体管仍只局限于实验室条件下使用。

Studying graphene and its analogues has, though, given technologists a huge amount of experience in the field of two-dimensional materials. And that is where boron nitride comes in. Though no use as a semiconductor it has a band gap wide enough to make it an extremely good insulator. It thus looks a suitable material, at least in principle, to deal with the problem of electron leakage.

不过，研究石墨烯及其类似物的过程使得技术人员在二维材料领域的研究积累了大量经验，对氮化硼的研究随即展开。尽管它不能用作半导体，但其带隙之宽足以让其成为极优良的绝缘体。所以，至少从原理上看，它是处理电子泄漏问题的合理材料。

Among the firms attempting to develop graphene transistors is Samsung, a giant South Korean electronics group. Its researchers have not, however, neglected boron nitride. One of them, Hyeon-Jin Shin, working in collaboration with Hyeon Suk Shin (no relation) of the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea and Manish Chhowalla of the University of Cambridge, in Britain, has come up with a form of thin-film boron nitride that lacks the regular hexagonal structure of standard white graphene—hence the description “amorphous”. Crucially, the way this substance is made may permit the integration of boron nitride into the standard chipmaking process.

尝试开发石墨烯晶体管的公司中，就有韩国大型电子集团三星。三星的研究人员并没有忽视氮化硼的价值，三星的Hyeon-Jin Shin与韩国蔚山科学技术院的Hyeon Suk Shin（两人并非亲属）和英国剑桥大学的Manish Chhowalla合作，发明了一种薄膜氮化硼。它没有标准白色石墨烯的规则六边形结构，因此得名“无定形（非晶态）氮化硼”。至关重要的是，无定形氮化硼的制造方式可能会让这种材料运用到标准芯片制造工艺中。

补充阅读：三星发现半导体新材料

https://m.baiguanw.cn/a/news/kejichuangxin/jiaodian/2154959.html

A fab outcome

前景光明

Thin-film materials are usually created by a process called chemical vapour deposition (CVD), and a-BN is no exception. The technique, as its name suggests, involves vaporising the material in question, or chemicals that will react together to make it, and then depositing the result on a substrate. In the case of microelectronics, this substrate is usually a wafer of silicon.

通常，化学气相沉积过程（CVD）加工结束后，可获得薄膜材料。非晶氮化硼（a-BN）也不例外。化学气相沉积技术，顾名思义，就是将所需的材料或者会相互发生反应的化学物进行汽化，然后将生成物沉积在基质上。在微电子领域，这种基质通常都是硅晶片。

扩展阅读：化学气相沉积

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%8C%96%E5%AD%A6%E6%B0%94%E7%9B%B8%E6%B2%89%E7%A7%AF/2968870

In general, for two-dimensional materials such as graphene and white graphene, CVD has to be done at above 700°C. This is too hot for existing fabs. But with thin-film a-bn, Hyeon-Jin Shin says, the temperature can be turned down as low as 400°C. That lower temperature should allow the material to be deposited directly onto silicon wafers and other substrates without having to retool the multi-billion-dollar factories, known as fabs, in which computer chips are made. This, she believes, means thin-film a-BN could be commercialised for chipmaking much faster than other two-dimensional materials.

一般而言，对于石墨烯和白色石墨烯这类二维材料，化学气相沉积需要在高于700℃的环境下进行，而这个温度对于现有的晶圆厂而言实在是太高了。但是Hyeon-Jin Shin表示，有了薄膜非晶氮化硼，该温度可以降至400℃。在这种相对低温下，材料可以直接沉积在硅晶片或者其他基质上，而不用重新为造价几十亿美元、用以制造计算机芯片的晶圆厂购买装备。她认为，这就意味着与其他二维材料相比，薄膜非晶氮化硼可以更快地实现商业化，用于芯片制造。

知识扩展：

二维材料：是指电子仅可在两个维度的纳米尺度（1-100nm）[1]上自由运动（平面运动）的材料，如纳米薄膜、超晶格、量子阱。二维材料是伴随着2004年曼切斯特大学Geim 小组成功分离出单原子层的石墨材料——石墨烯（graphene） 而提出的。

纳米材料是指材料在某一维、二维或三维方向上的尺度达到纳米尺度。纳米材料可以分为零维材料、一维材料、二维材料、三维材料。零维材料是指电子无法自由运动的材料，如量子点、纳米颗粒与粉末。

The new, amorphous films are thicker than standard white graphene, but only slightly so. At three nanometres, they are well within the size-range needed to form part of the next sceptic-busting generation of components. They are also thermally, mechanically and electrically stable. And they preserve white graphene’s wide band gap, and thus its insulating properties. Add their fab-friendliness into the calculation and their future looks bright. With luck, then, the Moore’s-law naysayers have been outmanoeuvred again.

这种新型非晶薄膜比标准的白色石墨烯厚，但也仅仅是略厚一点。仅三纳米，却足以让怀疑论者哑口无言。与此同时，这些薄膜具有热学、机械和电学稳定性，并保留了白色石墨烯的宽带隙特性，因此也具有绝缘性能。再加上其适用于现有晶圆厂的特点，这种材料的前景光明。如果一切顺利，那么摩尔定律的唱衰者会再一次一败涂地。

翻译组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

校核组：

Chao，爱读书思考的DPhil candidate，TE爱好者

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

这次文章好像有点太专业了，我们翻译组的小伙伴实在是辛苦，希望朋友们可以点个三连，或者帮忙多宣传宣传，也算是对大家的一个肯定哈哈哈哈。

我们就不讨论电子、石墨烯等等内容了，我们说点通俗的东西。文中摩尔作出的预测是晶体管数量每两年会翻一番，算是比较保守的预测，但反对摩尔的人却更为保守。那么我的问题是：我们是否应该对科技发展持有保守的态度？我个人认为，面对任何领域的科技，我们都不应该保守，应该抱着略微激进的态度去期待。

相信大家对腹腔镜手术都不陌生，如今很多胃肠外科、肛肠外科和泌尿外科等的手术基本都采取这种微创形式进行。但如今非常普及的技术在刚进入中国大陆时，也并不为人们所接受。腹腔镜手术最早是通过香港中文大学医学院前任院长钟尚志教授在广州的一台表演手术引进内陆的，随后也有内陆的医生开始独立开展这种新型手术，比如海军军医大学的刘彦教授率先开展了子宫内巨大肿瘤的切除等。但是这样的“打孔手术”是违背传统认知的。在传统观念当中，做手术就是开膛破肚，如今肚子上的几个孔挑战了人们的认知。我不是在谴责那些拒绝腹腔镜手术的人太过保守，他们的选择是无可厚非的，谁都害怕冒险，就像刚有外科手术时，也不是所有人都愿意尝试。但是，这些拒绝新技术的人就要承受更高的代价：更大的术后感染几率、更长的恢复时间以及创伤后遗症等等。如今达芬奇机器人这样的前沿设备也开始出现在国内各大医院的手术室里，为病患带去更有效的治疗。复旦大学附属妇产科医院（红房子医院）的华克勤教授就是这项技术很好的运用者。相信在将来，机器人手术会越来越普及，也会有越来越多的病患怀着开放的心态接受它。

不光是外科手术，还有其他很多领域，如制药、精密仪器和通信技术等等，我们都应该怀着略微激进的心态，期待科技会给我们带来惊喜。毕竟，有时候科技不是一点点进步的，或许研究人员一些天马行空的想法就会有意想不到的惊喜。旁观者和参与者，一起加油吧，稍稍浪漫主义一点，世界会更美好。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人财经 || 为何越南一直是全球主义者和前沿市场投资者的宠儿？

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491175&idx=1&sn=63482839711f5cef083285683a49ed51&chksm=fba04dc0ccd7c4d660c2573fac3ddc09bc7ea7607798549a87fd782b46e8416783992fcfdcae#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Jerry，男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

英语写作批改课上线啦，详见第二篇推送。

后续还将陆续推出更多系列写作课程，敬请期待！！

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Lotus esprit

莲花精灵

英文部分选自经济学人20200718期Finance版块

Buttonwood

梧桐树专栏

Lotus esprit

莲花精灵

注：Lotus esprit 莲花精灵

The Lotus Esprit (es-pree) is a sports car that was built by Lotus in the United Kingdom between 1976 and 2004, as well as a future release in 2014. The silver Italdesign concept that eventually became the Esprit was unveiled at the Turin Motor Show in 1972 as a concept car, and was a development of a stretched Lotus Europa chassis.

出产于21世纪初，但它的的设计还延续了上世纪70年代跑车设计流行的楔形设计。1972年在都灵(Turin)车展上作为一种风格理念展出后70年代开始投产；今天它作为世界上最好的超级跑车之一被世人所认可。

Why Vietnam remains a darling of globalists and frontier-market investors

为何越南一直是全球主义者和前沿市场投资者的宠儿？

At the start of February, as the spread of a deadly virus in China became more threatening, Vietnam closed the border. Truckers could no longer ferry components and raw materials from China to local factories. This was a problem for Samsung, a South Korean hardware giant, which manufactures most of its handsets in Vietnam. It had just unveiled two new smartphones in America. It did not want to delay production. So it began to airlift vital parts from China.

二月初，由于新冠疫情在中国的传播愈发危险，越南关闭了边境。卡车司机无法再将中国生产的零件和原材料运输到越南当地工厂，这给韩国硬件巨头三星公司出了难题，因其大部分手机都是在越南生产。而三星又刚在美国发布了两款新智能手机，因不愿延误生产它便开始从中国空运重要部件。

注：
1. ferry: If a vehicle ferries people or goods, it transports them, usually by means of regular trips between the same two places. 运送

Eg. Every day, a plane arrives to ferry guests to and from Bird Island Lodge.

每天，一架飞机到达以运送进出鸟岛宾馆的客人。

2. airlift: If people, troops, or goods are airlifted somewhere, they are carried by air, especially in a war or when land routes are closed. 空运

Eg.The injured were airlifted to a hospital in Dayton.

伤员被空运到代顿的一所医院。

The story is telling on two counts. Vietnam was swift in containing the spread of covid-19, with a fairly intrusive track-and-isolate strategy—the kind that only a one-party state may be able to implement. Its economy suffered, but has bounced back more sharply than most. It is one of just a few dozen countries where gdp is likely to grow this year. The story also underscores Vietnam’s status as a favoured venue for foreign direct investment (fdi). It is an established place for clothesmakers to set up. More recently it has become a key link in technology supply chains.

这个故事主要表达了两方面的意义。其一，越南采取具有相当强硬的跟踪隔离策略，迅速遏制了新冠病毒的传播，而该策略只有一党国家才有可能执行。其二，越南经济受创，但比绝大多数国家反弹得都要快，是今年GDP有望增长的为数不多的几个国家之一。该故事也凸显了越南作为外国直接投资青睐对象的地位。它是服装制造商建厂的金牌选地。最近，它还成为了科技供应链中的重要一环。

注：

underscore: If something such as an action or an event underscores another, it draws attention to the other thing and emphasizes its importance. 突出显示; 强调

Eg.The Labour Department figures underscore the shaky state of the economic recovery.

劳工部的数字突出显示了经济复苏的不稳定。

Vietnam is not just a darling of multinational firms. It is also beloved of investors in “frontier markets”, at the farthest edge of the equity universe. Such investors have few rags-to-riches economic stories to buy into. Vietnam looks like one of the more reliable ones. Indeed it is proving to be something of an each-way bet on globalisation. A big winner from the growth of world trade in recent decades, it is now a beneficiary from the geopolitical fallout from that growth.

越南不仅仅是跨国企业的宠儿，同时也是“前沿市场”投资者们的心头好，前沿市场处于股票世界的最边缘。这类投资者基本不太相信白手起家的经济“童话”，但越南却是显得最为可靠的市场之一。它确实为全球化投资提供了多方下注的选择（既可能“中大奖”，就算失利也不会有太大损失）。作为近几十年世界贸易增长的大赢家，越南现在还是该增长所带来的地缘政治影响的受益者。

注：

1. rags-to-riches 贫穷到富裕的；白手起家的

2. fallout

n. （核爆炸或核事故后的）辐射微尘，放射性尘降；（不良）后果，副作用，余波；（工业事故或生产过程中产生的）空气悬浮物，浮尘

eg：almost as dramatic as the financial scale of the mess is the growing political fallout.

Not so long ago Vietnam was one of the world’s poorest countries. In 1986 it launched its doi moi (“renovation”) reforms, which allowed for a greater role for market forces and the private ownership of enterprises. The economy was opened up to foreign trade and capital. Its low wage costs were an advantage, but hardly a unique one. So Vietnam also offered generous tax breaks to foreign companies that went there.

不久之前，越南还是全球最贫穷的国家之一。1986年，越南发动了“革新”（doi moi）改革，允许市场力量和企业私有制发挥更大作用。自此，其经济为海外贸易和资本打开了大门。越南的低人力成本是其优势，但并不是其独有的优势，因此越南还为本国的海外企业提供了慷慨的税收优惠政策。

More recently a stable economy has added to its appeal, says Luong Hoang of Viet Capital Securities in Hanoi. The central bank has kept the dong fairly steady against the dollar. Stricter limits have been imposed on bank credit. Inflation has settled in the low single digits. Vietnam has further opened up to trade. It joined the World Trade Organisation in 2007. It has since signed deals with Japan and South Korea, two of the bigger investors in Vietnam. Last month it ratified one with the eu. And the FDI keeps rolling in. There have been biggish investments from China, Hong Kong and Singapore this year. It is the go-to place for the sort of production that has become too costly in China. It is also a refuge for companies that want to limit their entanglement in the Sino-American trade-and-tech battle.

河内越南资本证券驻的朗晃（Luong Hoang）表示，最近，稳定的经济增加了越南的吸引力。央行保持越南盾对美元汇率的稳定。银行信贷受到愈加严格的限制。通货膨胀率维持在个位数的低位。越南并进一步扩大了贸易开放。2007年，越南加入世界贸易组织，此后与越南最大的投资者日本和韩国签署了协议。上个月，它正式批准了一项与欧盟的协议，外国直接投资便源源不断地涌入。今年，中国大陆、香港和新加坡都对其注入了大量投资。鉴于在中国的生产成本越来越高，越南成了（替代）首选。对于那些不想在中美贸易和技术战中过多纠缠的公司，越南也成了“避难所”。

注：

1. Viet Capital Securities：Viet Capital Securities is the leading investment bank in Vietnam. The investment banking team provides IPO and M&A advisory services, is 25-strong and growing, and advises on a range of sell-side and buy-side transactions across a number of sectors from its headquarters in HCMC（HCMC, Ho Chi Minh City，胡志明市）.

2. Ratify：When national leaders or organizations ratify a treaty or written agreement, they make it official by giving their formal approval to it, usually by signing it or voting for it. 批准 (条约或书面协议)

3. FDI：A foreign direct investment (FDI) is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country into business interests located in another country. Generally, FDI takes place when an investor establishes foreign business operations or acquires foreign business assets in a foreign company. However, FDIs are distinguished from portfolio investments in which an investor merely purchases equities of foreign-based companies.外国直接投资

4. Biggish：Something that is biggish is fairly big. 颇大的 [非正式]

5. Refuge：A refuge is a place where you go for safety and protection, for example from violence or from bad weather. 避难所; 收容所

There is an irony here. Vietnam’s economic strategy looks much as China’s once did: a lot of fdi; export-led growth; a steady climb up the value chain from textiles to tech. It is also prone to some of China’s vices, including a nexus of corruption, real-estate deals and bad debts. Still, Vietnam has attributes that once made investing in emerging markets so enticing and globalisation such a persuasive creed: a fast-growing economy, rapid urbanisation, improving infrastructure and an expanding middle class. Its array of listed companies—from banks and logistics firms to retailers and steelmakers—allows investors to gain exposure to these trends.

这里有一定的讽刺意味。越南的经济战略看起来很似中国的老路：大量的外国直接投资；出口导向型增长；价值链从纺织向科技稳步攀升。同样也容易出现一些中国的类似问题，包括腐败、房地产交易和坏账。尽管如此，越南拥有令新兴市场投资变得如此诱人，令全球化变为如此有说服力的特点：经济高速增长、城市化快速发展、不断改善的基础设施和不断扩大的中产阶级。越南一系列上市公司——从银行和物流公司到零售商和钢铁制造商——使投资者有机会从这些发展趋势中获利。

注：

1. Irony： Irony is a subtle form of humour that involves saying things that are the opposite of what you really mean. 讽刺

2. be prone to:易于……；有……的倾向

3. Vice：恶习，缺点

4. Nexus：A nexus is a connection or series of connections within a particular situation or system. 关联 [正式] [usu with supp] nexus of 一组，一系列

5. Attribute：属性，特质

6. Creed:A creed is a set of beliefs, principles, or opinions that strongly influence the way people live or work. 信条 [正式]

All this sounds lovely. But there is a catch. Vietnam imposes foreign-ownership limits on many home-grown companies. This is in large part why it is classed by msci, an index provider, as a “frontier” market, not an “emerging” one. A foreign investor who wants a stock that has reached the limit must buy from another foreigner. These off-exchange trades can take weeks to be arranged and approved, says Andrew Brudenell of Ashmore, a fund manager. A handful of stocks attract hefty price premiums. Shares in Mobile World, an electronics-cum-grocery retailer, recently changed hands among foreigners at a 51% premium to the on-exchange price, according to Viet Capital Securities.

以上所有听起来都很美好，但也存在一个问题。越南对许多本土公司施加了外资所有权限制。这就解释了为什么指数提供商MSCI将越南归类为“前沿”市场而非“新兴”市场。外国投资者如果想获得已达外资所有权限制公司的股份则必须向别的外国投资者购买。安石公司（Ashmore）的基金经理安德鲁·布鲁德内尔（Andrew Brudenell）表示，这些场外交易可能需要花费数周的时间来安排和申批。少数股票吸引了高额的价格溢价。根据越南资本证券，越南手机零售商移动世界（Mobile World）的股票最近在外国投资者手中易手，转手交易溢价51％。

注：

1. 外资所有权控制：外资所有权控制是指东道国通过行政、法律和经济手段限制外国资本在合资经营企业中所占的股权份额。实行所有权控制的国家多是发展中国家，其目的在于通过当地资本参与，对投资企业经营活动进行控制，弥补当地与外资竞争的力量不足，防止其出现受外资控制或操纵的不良后果。在所有权控制中有这样几种形式： (1) 允许外资持少数股权；(2) 允许外资与当地资本各占半数股权；(3) 规定当地资本和外资各占49%的股权，另2%的股权为控制，由第三方掌握；(4) 允许外资占多数股权，但不能独资经营。信息来源：

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%A4%96%E8%B5%84%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E6%9D%83%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6/22498424?fr=aladdin

2. MSCI指数

“MSCI国家指数”由摩根士丹利资本国际公司（MSCI）收集每个上市公司的股价、发行量、大股东持有量、自由流通量、每月交易量等数据，并将上市公司按全球行业分类标准(GICS)进行分类，在每一个行业以一定的标准选取60%市值的股票作为成份股，选取标准包括规模（市值）、长期短期交易量、交叉持股情况和流通股数量。由于摩根士丹利资本国际公司先划分行业，再从行业中选择股票，这样保证了指数组合中各行业都有相对固定比例的股票，使得指数具有较强的行业代表性。信息来源：

https://baike.baidu.com/item/MSCI%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0/7380821

3. Mobile World Investment Corp成为越南最大的手机卖场和最大的上市公司之一,是越南收入和税后净利润最高的零售商，该公司现在的市值为17亿美元，于2014年5月上市。拥有1300多家手机零售店和700多家消费电子产品商店, 覆盖全国63个省市。到2019年为止，公司经营着“thegioididong”手机零售连锁、“Dien May Xanh”(含“Tran Anh”)消费电子零售连锁、“Bach Hoa Xanh”杂货食品零售连锁、“Vuivui.com”电子商务平台。信息来源：

https://www.jianshu.com/p/3b48027ca05f

The trade-oriented nature of Vietnam’s model means it is at the mercy of events elsewhere. However well it has handled the pandemic, there will be nerves about rising infections in America, its biggest export market. The government has dusted off infrastructure plans and relaxed land-use rules. Last month it approved a new $9.3bn tourist resort. Foreign investors, naturally, have a piece of that. 

以贸易模式主导的越南也就意味着会受到其他国家事件的牵制。不管越南处理新冠疫情如何优秀，其最大的出口市场美国的疫情感染率上升始终让人感到不安。越南政府已重启基础设施计划并放宽了土地使用法规。上个月，政府批准了一个价值93亿美元的旅游度假区新项目，外国投资者自然也要分一杯羹。

注

1：at the mercy of 在...支配下，任由...摆布

2：Dust off: 重新使用；弄掉...灰尘

翻译组：

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alex，女，小研究员一枚，经济学人粉丝

市场调节和宏观调控：是敌？是友？

发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，是市场经济最基本的要求。然而，疫情来临之时，市场这只看不见的手，果然很瞎。

如果没有行政手段抑制口罩价格，那么一盒200元的口罩也将“一罩难求”；如果没有法律手段加强封城管控，那么按照目前的人口密度一千万的感染也是情理之中；如果没有经济手段刺激消费和投资，那么随着缓和的疫情，还会有干瘪的口袋。不管怎么看待国家的宏观调控：支持也好，存疑也罢。在这个特殊的时期，政府这只看得见的手，确实抚慰了人心。

更有意思的是，不止今天的疫情，漫漫历史长河中，只要到了危急存亡之秋，一个强有力的国家以及他的指挥者总能成为聚光灯下的焦点。1929年的美国金融危机，靠的是罗斯福新政恢复经济，也让凯恩斯国家资本主义走上了历史的舞台中央；上个世纪七十年代的韩国也是被朴槿惠的父亲朴正熙以军政一体的方式统治了近二十年，从积贫积弱的国家创造了汉江奇迹，成为了亚洲四小龙。更不要提20世纪，那些利用五年规划，发展工业化的社会主义国家们。

有时候，我们可能会疑问，这些是不是说明国家的分配胜过自由的买卖，其实不然。与其放大他们的经济结果，不如想想他们背后的原因。金融危机的美国、动荡的韩国、贫穷的社会主义国家和战时的各国，需要的不是空着肚子的民主先生，而是集中力量办成一件大事  ---- 吃饱饭睡好觉。所以人性本恶中的自私、趋利和盲目在这个时期是绝对不需要的，必须依靠人性本善中的奋斗、奉献才能实现这件大事。与其说是政府的宏观调控帮助了人民，不如说是千千万万的人民牺牲了小我成就了大我。

而当大我成就之时，也应当是还富小我之日。政府这只看得见的手总会落幕，那时候，市场那只看不见的手，会在每份精心制作的简历里，每顿滚着辣油的火锅里，每条波动的K线图里，和我们招手。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

写作天团 | 英文写作批改课

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491175&idx=2&sn=10ab2974993b6ff7471a642ce2b604d2&chksm=fba04dc0ccd7c4d644233cb07577ba66725d8e7ea2fa466ee43a3351e7e308014b4c22bdf5f8#rd

导

Lead

语

此前公众号两次发文筹建写作天团，团队入选要求为雅思8分且写作8分。经过第一轮初筛，共10位小伙伴入选筹备组。第二轮筛选采用写作考核+互评的方式，依据互评结果最终确定5名成员，正式成立写作天团。今天，写作天团率先推出写作批改课，后续还将陆续推出更多系列写作课程，敬请期待！！

01

课程亮点

1. “结构-内容-语言”全方位提升

2. 文字批改与语音讲解相结合

3. 标准化模板与个性化提升相结合

4. 一对一教师屏幕共享

5. 构建写作闭环，追踪成长轨迹

02

课程团队

1. Tom

KCL全额奖学金

伦敦国王学院生物博士

参与撰写大量英文文书，包括博士论文，基金申请，项目策划等

作为教育顾问和博士申请顾问提供咨询服务

有3年以上学生辅导与沟通经验

辅导学生成功申请到剑桥、雷丁、莱斯特等名校

2. AL

雅思8分，写作8分，

人事部二级口译认证，

有丰富的作文批改和学术写作经验

擅长根据学生实际情况给出个性化写作提升建议

3. Juliette

雅思无备考8分，写作8分

美国密苏里大学新闻学最高荣誉毕业 GPA3.9/4.0

LSAT两月备考160分

（LSAT对母语人士也极具挑战）

在美国多个城市学习工作生活近5年

熟悉母语人士的表达思维和写作风格

就职于Communication领域，工作语言为英语

4. Ashley

中国科学技术大学翻译硕士

雅思托福等出国留学类考试9年教学经验

英语专业八级

熟悉雅思托福等英文写作评分标准

批改经验丰富，批改作文量5000+

5. Genny

高校在职英语教师，副教授

英语测试方向硕士研究生毕业

专注雅思阅读和写作教学9年

熟悉雅思写作评分标准

擅长从语际对比和思维差异出发

为学生提供针对性写作指导

6. Steph

清华大学研究生，北京市优秀毕业生

连续两年获国家奖学金

持英语教师资格证

英文写作辅导、课程开发和教学设计经验丰富

托福写作28分

英国曼彻斯特大学交换留学

03

课程产品及定价

1. 文章类型

各种英文文章

2. 批改时间

提交作文之日起计时，三天之内完成批改。

3.可选套餐

标准套餐（STANDARD）

199元

文字打磨版写作批改报告与建议 

& 

语音讲解版写作提升讲解与规划

升级套餐（双PLUS）

499元

1.文字打磨版写作批改报告与建议 & 语音讲解版写作提升讲解与规划

2.+Plus一对一视频会议+屏幕共享，实时解答写作困惑，全面讲解批改建议

3.+Plus构建写作闭环，指导学生依据批改报告做文章修改，对学生的修改稿提出第二轮批改建议，追踪学生写作成长轨迹，稳步提升学生英文写作能力

04

如何报名

1. 感兴趣的小伙伴欢迎扫码入群

（若群已满，烦请添加小编微信396196827）

2. 小编将通过小游戏随机抽奖，选择两位幸运小伙伴，赠送免费批改名额，并把批改范本发到群里，因为我们相信：实践是检验实力的唯一标准。

---End---

经济学人商业 || 判断力是种难以定义却非常重要的品质

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491096&idx=1&sn=3d42b1e087bce5fd9abb5709be13b3ca&chksm=fba04dbfccd7c4a9f5b16f775c222dea079ced95f8e06d8ac200c87846007b27a72f363b1612#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Rena，坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

A question of judgment

判断力

英文部分选自经济学人20200718期Business版块

Bartleby

巴托比专栏

A question of judgment

判断力

A quality that is hard to define but important to possess

难以定义却非常重要的品质

The pandemic has required many people to make difficult judgments. Politicians have had to decide which restrictions to impose on citizens’ behaviour and individuals were forced to assess how much personal risk to take. Managers, faced with tough calls like which parts of their operations to close, have not been spared.

大流行病需要许多人做出艰难的判断。政治家必须决定对公民行为施加哪些限制，而个人则不得不评估要承担多少个人风险。经理们也面临着艰难的抉择——哪些业务要关闭，哪些业务则要继续运营。

Good judgment is a quality everyone would like to have. But it is remarkably difficult to define precisely, and many people are not sure whether they personally possess it. Sir Andrew Likierman of the London Business School has spent a long time talking to leaders in a wide range of fields, from business and the army to the law and medicine, in an effort to create a framework for understanding judgment.

良好的判断力是人人都希望拥有的品质，但是何为良好判断力却难以精准定义，很多人也难以判断自己是否拥有这种能力。伦敦商学院的安德鲁·利基尔曼爵士（Sir Andrew Likierman）花了很长时间与企业、军队、法律和医学等多个领域的业界领袖交谈，以期建立一个理解判断力的框架。

First he had to define the word. He suggests that judgment is “the combination of personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and take decisions”. And he argues that, thus defined, judgment involves a process—taking in information, deciding whom and what to trust, summarising one’s personal knowledge, checking any prior beliefs or feelings, summarising the available choices and then making the decision. At each stage, decision-makers must ask themselves questions, such as whether they have the relevant experience and expertise to make their choice, and whether the option they favour is practical.

首先，必须要定义何为判断力。利基尔曼爵士认为，判断力是“个人素质与相关知识和经验融合而成的观点和决策”。他认为，在此定义下，判断力包含了一个过程：获取信息、确定值得信任的人和对象、总结个人知识、确定优先的信念或感受，总结可用选项并做出决策。在每个环节，决策者都必须自问，比如自己是否具有做出选择所需的相关的经验和专业知识，以及他们偏好的选择是否可行。

Expertise can be useful in making judgments. But it is not the same thing. “Academics have expertise,” Sir Andrew observes. “They don’t necessarily have judgment.” People with judgment know when they are out of their depth in making a decision and typically then seek the advice of someone who has the right background and knowledge.

专业知识有助于做出判断，但是专业知识并不等同于判断力。安德鲁爵士评论道：“学者们具有专业知识，但不一定有判断力。”有判断力的人清楚自己何时无法做决定，然后通常会征求有适当背景和知识的人的意见。

It is, of course, possible to follow all these steps and still make the wrong choice. But Sir Andrew argues that a sensible process improves the chance of getting it right. The temptation is to look at people’s track records when assessing when they have good judgment, but luck may have played a huge part. “While good judgment is important to success,” Sir Andrew cautions, “success is not a signal that there has been good judgment.”

当然，即便你遵循了所有步骤却仍可能做出错误的决定。但安德鲁爵士认为合理的步骤可以提高做出正确决定的概率。评估一个人是否拥有良好的判断力，看他的最佳表现是个不错的办法，但也可能是运气起了很大的作用。安德鲁先生提醒到：“虽然良好的判断力对成功至关重要，但成功并不意味着个人拥有良好的判断力”。

注：

Track records：the best recorded performance in a particular athletics event at a particular track；the past achievements or performance of a person, organization, or product.

The degree of judgment required tends to increase as people take on more responsibility. Those with routine tasks generally have limited scope for judgment. Line supervisors have some discretion. For a chief executive, the proportion of decisions involving judgment is high. Deciding not to take action is also a judgment with potentially serious consequences (for example, “I won’t get vaccinated” or “I won’t pay my bills”). The world is full of people whose lack of judgment brought their careers or personal life crashing down. Many made the common mistake of assuming everything was fine.

一个人承担的责任越多，对判断力的需求程度就越大。那些完成常规任务的人通常判断力有限。生产线主管具有一定的判断力。而作为总经理，与判断有关的决策占比就相当之高了。决定不采取行动同样也是一种可能带来严重后果的判断 (比如，“我不会接种疫苗”或“我不会支付账单”)。这个世界上有很多人因为缺乏判断力使他们的事业或生活江河日下。很多人都犯了同一个错误：认为一切都没有问题。

Some people think that good judgment is innate. Sir Andrew accepts that some individuals are born with the ability to listen, be self-aware and better understand other people: all qualities that make good judgment easier. People with good judgment tend to have a breadth of experiences and relationships that enables them to recognise parallels or analogies that others miss. The ability to be detached, both intellectually and emotionally, is also a vital component.

一些人认为良好的判断力是与生俱来的。安德鲁先生也承认某些人一生下来就有良好的倾听能力、自知之明以及理解他人的能力，而这些品质让人更容易做出好的判断。具备良好判断力的人往往拥有丰富的经历和人际关系，使他们能够识别出其他人忽略了的事情间的相似之处。此外，保持智力上和情感上互相独立、不偏不倚的能力也是良好判断力所需的重要品质。

Others may have the wrong sort of characteristics; a tendency to ignore others, stick to rules irrespective of context, rush into action without reflection and struggle to make up their minds. Many leaders make bad judgments because they unconsciously filter the information they receive or are not sufficiently critical of what they hear or read. The danger is that people ignore insights that they don’t want to hear, a tendency that can increase with age.

另一些人的性格可能不利于做出良好判断，比如容易固执己见、墨守成规、不管来龙去脉就慌忙下结论、仓促行事或犹豫不决。很多领导者之所以会做出错误的判断是因为他们会不知不觉过滤一些接收到的信息，或是对其所见所闻缺乏足够的重视。危险之处在于人们会忽略自己不想听到的内容，这一倾向随着年龄增长会愈发明显。

As artificial intelligence gets used for more and more routine tasks in the service sector, exercising judgment may be one area where humans retain an edge over machines. This is far from certain, however. What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. This ability may be unconscious, just as a dog can catch a Frisbee in mid-air without knowing how to calculate wind speed and air resistance.

随着人工智能在服务行业的日常工作中得到越来越多的应用，做出判断或许是人类仍保持优势的一个领域。然而，这还远非定论。良好的判断力或许源于在环境中发现特定线索的能力。这种能力可能是下意识的行为，正如狗能在不知道如何计算风速和阻力的情况下接住半空中的飞盘。

With enough practice, machines may be able to recognise these implicit cues and thus display the equivalent of good judgment. But then, perhaps humans can be taught, too. In the long run one of the trickiest aspects of human judgment may be knowing precisely when to let machines take decisions and when to leave it to people.

经过足够的练习，机器也许能够识别这些隐含的线索，从而做出良好判断。不过，到了那时，人类的判断力也能培养获得。长远来看，人类判断力最棘手的问题可能是到底何时让机器做出决定，而又何时听从人类的选择。

翻译组：

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

Zoey，女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工

业

校对组：

Elle, 女， 靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Monica，女，MTIer,死不悔改的理想主义者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Forest，女，自由职业，爱树的人

“……学研究似乎并不需要任何极高的特殊天赋……它是一门容易的学科，但这个学科中很少有人能够出类拔萃！这个悖论的解释也许在于杰出的……学家应该同时具有各种罕见的天赋…….他必须根据一般性来深入思考特殊性，并在思绪奔放的同时触及抽象与具体。他必须根据过去，着眼未来而研究现在。他必须考虑到人性或人的制度的每一部分。他必须同时保持坚定而客观的情绪，要像艺术家一样超然而不流俗，但有时又要像政治家一样脚踏实地。”

这是作为哲学家和经济学家的凯恩斯用来描述经济学家所需禀赋的一段话。异曲同工之言可见查理芒格所谓的多模型思维（即要想成为一个有智慧的人，你必须拥有多个模型。而且，你必须将你的经验，无论是间接的，还是直接的，都放到构成这些模型的网格上。）

明智来之不易，专业理论有帮助，然而又不止于此，说到底还是得通达。比如面对大流行病，要不要戴口罩？看似这是应该由个人决定的小问题。不戴口罩会增加自己传染的风险（这个是不戴口罩的时候就应该愿意承担的风险了），但因此增加“别人”被传染的风险却可能被个人忽略。如果能找出所有这些“别人”，并能对他们进行精确支付以弥补其损失，那这个人不戴口罩就应该是合理的。可惜这一点并不那么容易做到，甚至是不可能做到，或者需要无比高的不必要的成本才能做到。对这一问题的思考涉及专业理论的简单运用（经济学中的“负外部性”的概念），判断力可以从这个概念衍生出来。当然这里还需要其他学科的理论知识，比如大家都不要戴口罩，最终对于所有人会不会成本更低？真的有必要费这么大麻烦么，不就是戴个口罩吗？

什么专业理论都不是真理本身，都没办法直接套用。而且一种专业知识也只是从一个侧面看世界，更好的判断力，需要综合各种知识、需要灵活性和创造性。而面对机器，我们唯一能够出其右的大概也就是这种洞明和练达。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

94年西安妹子相亲啦

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491096&idx=2&sn=713b5d55b324cf1ba97cbf22b000ff06&chksm=fba04dbfccd7c4a9cf6a053fa802b5c07b910d849c520053e3fb03792c5eb7e5dc5d60bf87fc#rd

【小姐姐的自我介绍~~】

94年西安妹子，168cm，英国红砖教育硕士，本科期间在韩国交换过两年。小学老师一枚～工作稳定～ 双子座 性格活泼 思维比较跳脱。

特长：书法/古筝/韩语均可

爱好 ：平时喜欢听歌 （各种歌曲）看电影 韩剧美剧

家庭：父母事业单位 独生女～     

【理想另一半】

1.西安本地，本科学历以上，聊得来

2.家里在西安有房，家庭背景相近，海归优先（比较有共同话题）

3.身高1.75cm以上

4.26-29岁的 性格温柔的 大好青年！  

【不喜欢】

不上进 不专一 爱逃避的人

请有缘人赶紧私信小编吧！有兴趣的小伙伴请一定要把自己的相关资料发给小编，学位证，房产证，照片等发给小编，确定后，小编建小群，后面就靠你们自己的造化了。

---End---

经济学人社论 || 疫情中学校停课利大于弊

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491081&idx=1&sn=f11ebb103f2ab20a0e4c891eb9533423&chksm=fba04daeccd7c4b8228bdf05f504da5636ae2aeb5e7ab75b9f23d2dfe211a8383c726986a0bd#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Covid-19 and schools

疫情中的学校

英文部分选自经济学人20200718期Leaders版块

Covid-19 and schools

疫情中的学校

Let Them Learn

让孩子们重返学校

Keeping Schools Closed Will Do More Harm Than GooD

停课，弊大于利

All around the world, children’s minds are going to waste. As covid-19 surged in early April, more than 90% of pupils were shut out of school. Since then the number has fallen by one-third, as many classrooms in Europe and East Asia have reopened. But elsewhere progress is slow. Some American school districts, including Los Angeles and San Diego, plan to offer only remote learning when their new school year begins. Kenya’s government has scrapped the whole year, leaving its children idle until January. In the Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte says he may not let any children return to the classroom until a vaccine is found. South Africa has reopened casinos, but only a fraction of classrooms.

全世界孩子们的大脑正在被荒废。随着四月初新冠肺炎病例激增，超过90%的学生被停课。到目前为止，因为欧洲和东亚的许多学校重新开放，该人数已经下降了三分之一，但是其他地区没有太大进展。在美国，包括洛杉矶和圣迭戈在内的一些学区计划新学期只提供线上教育。肯尼亚政府甚至取消了一整年的在校课程，使得孩子们在2021年一月份前都将无所事事。菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特表示，疫苗出来前不会让任何孩子返校。南非已经恢复开放赌场，但却只开放了一小部分的教室。

Many parents are understandably scared. Covid-19 is new, and poorly understood. Schools are big and crowded. Small children will not observe social distancing. Caution is appropriate, especially when cases are rising. But as we have argued before, the benefits of reopening schools usually outweigh the costs.

家长们的恐慌是可以理解的。我们对新冠肺炎这一新型疾病知之甚少。学校场所范围大且拥挤，年龄小的孩子很难保持社交距离，保持谨慎是恰当的，特别是在病例持续增多的情况下。但正如我们前面所说，恢复学校的教学利大于弊。

The new coronavirus poses a low risk to children. Studies suggest that under-18s are a third to a half less likely to catch the disease. Those under ten, according to British figures, are a thousand times less likely to die than someone aged between 70 and 79. The evidence suggests they are not especially likely to infect others. In Sweden staff at nurseries and primary schools, which never closed, were no more likely to catch the virus than those in other jobs. A new study of 1,500 teenage pupils and 500 teachers who had gone back to school in Germany in May found that only 0.6% had antibodies to the virus, less than half the national rate found in other studies. Granted, an outbreak at a secondary school in Israel infected over 150 pupils and staff. But with precautions, the risk can be minimised.

新冠肺炎对孩子的风险很低。研究表明，18岁以下人群感染新冠病毒的可能性比其他人低三分之一至二分之一。根据英国的数据来看，10岁以下的孩子比70岁到79岁的老人死亡率低1000倍。有证据表明，孩子们并不太容易感染其他人。在瑞典，从未关闭过的托儿所和小学的工作人员感染病毒的可能性并不比其他领域的工作人员高。一项新的研究检测了德国5月份回到学校的1500名青少年学生和500名教师，发现只有0.6% 的人有病毒抗体，不到全国比例（据其他研究结果）的一半。当然，以色列一所中学有150多名学生和教职员感染病毒，但只要采取预防措施，风险可以降到最低。

However, the costs of missing school are huge. Children learn less, and lose the habit of learning. Zoom is a lousy substitute for classrooms. Poor children, who are less likely to have good Wi-Fi and educated parents, fall further behind their better-off peers. Parents who have nowhere to drop their children struggle to return to work. Mothers bear the heavier burden, and so suffer a bigger career setback. Children out of school are more likely to suffer abuse, malnutrition and poor mental health.

然而，失学的代价是巨大的。孩子们学得少，丢失了学习的习惯。Zoom并不是一个理想的教室替代品。家境贫穷的孩子们，不大可能有流畅的无线网，父母也不太可能受过良好教育，因此远远落后于家境较好的同龄人。有些父母因为不知道如何安置孩子很难重返岗位。母亲们承受着更沉重的负担，因此也遭受着更大的事业挫折。失学儿童更有可能遭受虐待、营养不良以及心理疾病。

School closures are bad enough in rich countries. The harm they do in poor ones is much worse . Perhaps 465m children being offered online classes cannot easily make use of them because they lack an internet connection. In parts of Africa and South Asia, families are in such dire straits that many parents are urging their children to give up their studies and start work or get married. The longer school is shut, the more will make this woeful choice. Save the Children, a charity, guesses that nearly 10m could drop out. Most will be girls.

在发达国家，学校关闭已经够糟糕的了。然而这对贫穷国家带来的伤害更为严重，大约4.65亿儿童因为没有互联网而无法利用好网课。在非洲和南亚的部分地区，许多家庭处境艰难，以至于家长正催促孩子们放弃学业，开始工作或者结婚。学校关闭越久，就有越多家庭会做出这样可悲的选择。据慈善机构“救助儿童会”预测，大约1000万儿童会辍学，其中大部分是女孩。

注：

In dire straits: in a very difficult situation especially because of lack of money （尤指经济拮据引起的）困境，境况窘迫

Education is the surest path out of poverty. Depriving children of it will doom them to poorer, shorter, less fulfilling lives. The World Bank estimates that five months of school closures would cut lifetime earnings for the children who are affected by $10trn in today’s money, equivalent to 7% of current annual gdp.

无疑，教育是最可靠的脱贫路径。如果剥夺了孩子的受教育机会，注定会使他们过上更贫穷、更短暂、更缺乏意义的生活。据世界银行估算，学校关闭5个月会影响孩子们一生的收入，按照当前货币计算，总计约10万亿美元，相当于目前GDP的7%。

With such catastrophic potential losses, governments should be working out how to reopen schools as soon as it is safe. This should not be a partisan issue, as it has sadly become in America, where some people assume it is a bad idea simply because President Donald Trump proposes it. In some countries teachers’ unions have been obstructive, partly out of justified concern for public health as cases climb, but also because teachers’ interests are not the same as children’s—especially if they are being paid whether they work or not. The main union in Los Angeles urges that schools remain closed until a long wishlist of demands has been met, including the elusive dream of universal health care in America. Children cannot wait that long.

面对如此灾难性的潜在损失，政府应该着手解决的问题是：一旦疫情风波结束，如何重新开放学校。这不应该是一个党派问题，但遗憾的是在美国，这已经变成了一个党派问题——有些人仅仅因为是特朗普总统提出了复学就认为这是一个糟糕的主意。一些国家的教师工会阻止了复学，一定程度上是随着病例的增加，出于对公共健康的合理担忧；但同时也因为教师的利益与学生并不一致——尤其是教师不论是否工作都会得到报酬的话。洛杉矶主要的教师工会呼吁学校持续关闭，直到能够满足一长串的要求，其中甚至包含美国全民医保这一难以实现的梦想。孩子们等不了那么久。

Places that have restarted schooling, such as France, Denmark, China and New Zealand, offer tips for minimising the risks. They let the most vulnerable teachers stay at home. They commonly reduced class sizes, even though that meant many children could spend only part of the week with their teachers. They staggered timetables to prevent crowding in corridors, at school gates and in dinner halls. They required or encouraged masks. They boosted school-based testing and tracing. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has used these to draw up sober guidelines, which include measures such as separating desks by six feet (though the vice-president this week said that schools should feel free to ignore them).

像法国、丹麦、中国和新西兰等一些已经重新开学的国家，都提供了将风险降到最低的建议。他们让身体最虚弱易感的教师呆在家里；他们通常缩小班级规模——尽管这意味着很多孩子一周只能有一部分时间和老师待在一起；他们错开时间表以防止在走廊、校门口和食堂造成拥挤，或要求或鼓励学生戴口罩；他们加强了基于学校层面的检测和追踪。同时疾病控制和预防中心已经利用这些规则起草了严格的指导方针，其中包括如课桌之间保持6英尺间隔等措施(尽管副总统本周表示，学校可以任意忽视这些指导方针)。

European countries waited on average about 30 days after infections had peaked before they resumed some presence at school. Having started this way, many have since relaxed the rules to let most pupils return to school at the same time. There is no known experience of schools reopening in places where the virus was as prevalent as it is now in Arizona, Florida or Texas. Such places will have to bring the virus under control before the new term begins. This probably means that not all children will be able to go back full-time even then. But a few days a week with a teacher are better than none. And, as in Europe, schools can open up more as covid-19 recedes.

在疫情感染达到高峰后，欧洲各国平均等待30天左右才开始恢复部分返校。开始这样做后，许多学校放松了规定，允许大多数学生同时返校。现在在亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州这些疫情盛行的地方，还没有可参考的学校重新开学经验。这些地方必须在新学期开始前控制住病毒。这可能意味着即使到那时，也不是所有的孩子都能回校进行全日制学习。但是一周有几天和老师在一起总比没有好。与欧洲一样，随着新冠疫情的消退，更多的学校可以重新开放。

The trade-offs in the global South are even harder. Only a quarter of schools in the poorest countries have soap and running water for handwashing. However, schools in such places are also where pupils are often fed and vaccinated. Closing them makes children more vulnerable to hunger and measles, and this risk almost certainly outweighs that of covid-19. The prudent course for poor-country governments is therefore to act boldly. Face down unions and reopen schools. Conduct loud re-enrolment campaigns, aimed especially at girls. Offer small cash transfers or gifts (such as masks or pens) to ease parents’ worries about the costs of getting their offspring back to class.

在全球南部地区，权衡取舍更加困难。在一些最贫穷的国家，只有四分之一的学校有肥皂和自来水洗手。然而，这些地方的学校也经常为学生提供食物和接种疫苗。关闭学校会使儿童更易遭受饥饿和麻疹，而这种风险几乎肯定超过新冠肺炎带来的风险。因此，贫穷国家政府的谨慎的做法就是大胆行动。说服工会，让学校重新开学。组织声势浩大的重新入学运动，特别是针对女孩。提供小额现金转移支付或礼物(如口罩或笔)，来缓解父母对孩子重返课堂所需费用的担忧。

注：

1. The Global South: it is an emerging term, used by the World Bank and other organizations, identifying countries with one side of the underlying global North–South divide, the other side being the countries of the Global North.As such the term does not inherently refer to a geographical south, for example most of the Global South is within the Northern Hemisphere.全球南部是世界银行和其他组织使用的一個新兴术语，用于标识全球南北鸿沟的一侧，另一侧是全球北部的国家。该术语並不固有地指地理上的南部，例如，全球南部的大多数国家位于北半球內。该术语最初是作为“第三世界”替代品引入的。

2. Course: (also course of action) a way of acting in or dealing with a particular situation 行动方式；处理方法

3. Face down:oppose sb. by dealing with them directly and confidently 压倒；降服

4. A cash transfer: a direct transfer payment of money to an eligible person. Cash transfers are either unconditional cash transfers or conditional cash transfers. They may be provided by organisations funded by private donors, or a local or regional government.转移支付是指政府或企业无偿地支付给个人以增加其收入和购买力的费用。它是一种收入再分配形式。政府的转移支付大都带有福利支出性质，如社会保险福利津贴、抚恤金、养老金、失业补助、救济金以及各种补助费等。

Reopening the world’s schools safely will not be cheap. Besides billions of bottles of hand sanitiser, it will require careful organisation, flexible schedules and assistance for those who have fallen behind to catch up. It will cost taxpayers money, but taxpayers are often parents, too. Rich countries should help poor ones with some of the costs. Steep as these will be, they are nothing like the costs of letting the largest generation in human history grow up in ignorance. 

安全地重新开放世界各地的学校不会便宜。除了数十亿瓶洗手液，还需要细心的组织、灵活的时间表和使那些落后的学生赶上进度所需的援助。这将花费纳税人的钱，但纳税人通常也是为人父母。富裕的国家应该帮助贫穷的国家承担部分成本。尽管这些成本代价将会非常高昂，但这与让人类历史上人口最多的一代人在无知中成长所需付出的成本代价相比，是无足轻重的。

翻译组：

Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后

Carole，女，经济硕士，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Melody，女，咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工，经济学人粉丝儿

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Samantha，女，不吃米饭，邓伦未婚妻

真正体会到享受学习是在成年之后。过了一定时间点才发现，以前觉得老生常谈的话大部分还挺有道理，比如学习是为了懂得思考；采取哪种学习方法非常重要；教育不是注满一桶水，而是点燃一把火……那些令人羡慕的能力，如辨识、决断、取舍、批判，都是从日积月累的教育经历而来。学校则是习得这些能力的途径中成本最低的地方——前人智慧摊开在你面前，有固定的时间提供互动，也有定期反馈和检查机制。尽管考试压力之大毋庸置疑，但要先抛开人口增长这个外生变量不谈，单论教育和学习本身的话，那种纯粹为了探索知识的边界而沉浸的感受，确实非常值得珍惜。

除了知识，教育更是为了经历。实体教育场所的另一个美好之处是学会如何与人相处。进入社会后往往更加珍惜那些校园时代的朋友，他们靠谱踏实有趣，你们一起在校服上花心思绞尽了脑汁，你知道他们为了躲避班主任的死亡凝视做出过什么糗事，他们知道你暗恋的男生其实早也喜欢你。独生子女这一代人，很少有过比同学更亲密的同龄人关系。每一次转校或者升学，认识的那些单纯善良的小伙伴们也在慢慢改变你，这是家庭永远代替不了的美好环境。希望未来的年轻人们回忆现在新冠给学校按下的暂停键，更多会感慨一声，开学真好。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

本周翻译预告

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491075&idx=1&sn=7d6605cd446b4b21772025a9decad449&chksm=fba04da4ccd7c4b26ad76b068ef9352bba37daeda63df3ca681166afeada96f7a7ca45f09f40#rd

01

女嘉宾

女嘉宾合集如下（超链）：

女嘉宾一（94年）

女嘉宾二（93年）

02

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | Let them learn 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/18/the-risks-of-keeping-schools-closed-far-outweigh-the-benefits?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | A question of judgment

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/07/18/a-question-of-judgment?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Lotus esprit

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/18/why-globalists-and-frontier-market-investors-love-vietnam?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | The incredible shrinking machine

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/07/18/a-new-material-helps-transistors-become-vanishingly-small?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | Man on a mission

https://www.economist.com/obituary/2020/07/18/ennio-morricone-died-on-july-6th?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

经济学人《1843》 || 隐匿的中国宝藏

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491069&idx=1&sn=a2d7f6fd4e1b0505777bd8119e621e81&chksm=fba04e5accd7c74ce995cb595ce5d8c59f5fe9e4f6c31b29587c5a03c1dce584bc114986a60c#rd

1

导读

英国美食作家扶霞·邓洛普的美食情结

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

CHINA HIDDEN TREASURES

隐匿的中国宝藏

英文部分选自经济学人《1843》

CHINA HIDDEN TREASURES

隐匿的中国宝藏

The food of Yunnan is famous in China but almost unknown abroad. Fuchsia Dunlop goes in search of it

云南美食在中国享有盛名，却在海外却鲜为人知。扶霞·邓洛普开启了寻味云南美食之旅。

注：
扶霞·邓洛普（Fuchsia Dunlop），女，英国人，中文名叫邓扶霞，曾四次获得烹饪餐饮界“奥斯卡”之称的詹姆斯·比尔德奖（James Beard Award）烹饪写作大奖。她把自己对中国美食的热爱写成了书。2008年，《鱼翅与花椒》的英文版出版。

In the shade of the palm and banyan trees that flank the courtyard of her restaurant, Aka Village, Su Ying is preparing to give me a cooking lesson. She is dressed in a black cotton suit with embroidered panels, and a hat covered in silver ornaments and pompoms that quiver as she moves, the traditional garb of the Hani minority in south-west China. Her ingredients are neatly laid out, including fresh herbs, ground spices, bright red chillies, garlic and ginger. But she has no pots and pans – instead she is going to cook the food in banana leaves and tubes of fresh bamboo on a small fire that blazes under an iron tripod in a corner of the yard. Su Ying takes up her cleaver and starts to chop the herbs.

苏英开了间阿卡乡村餐厅，庭院两侧种着棕榈树和榕树，她就在树荫底下准备给我上一堂烹饪课，苏英身着中国西南部哈尼族传统服饰——镶有刺绣条纹的黑色棉裙，布满银饰并坠着随步摇晃的绣球的帽子。她将食材，新鲜调味香草、研磨好的香料、鲜红辣椒、大蒜和生姜等，一一摆放整齐。不过苏英并不使用锅碗瓢盆，她打算在院角处的铁三角架下支起小火，用芭蕉叶和新鲜竹筒包裹住食物烹煮。苏英拿起菜刀开始切调味香草。

Nearly a decade has passed since I last visited the tropical prefecture of  Xishuangbanna in the far south of Yunnan province in south-west China, close to the border with Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. Here in Jinghong, the main city, we’re some 1,500 miles from Beijing, as distant as Moscow is from London. Now, as then, I’m struck by how different Yunnan is to other parts of China, and how distinct the food is from the country’s far better-known cuisines soy sauce and vinegar, both Chinese staples, are absent from Su Ying’s kitchen. Her herbs – sawtooth, lemongrass, Vietnamese coriander and mint – seem more south-east Asian than Chinese; some of the spices are uniquely local, such as false camphor tree fruits and a wild variety of Sichuan pepper. As Su Ying works, she chats away to her colleagues in the staccato tones of the Hani language, which is incomprehensible to me, a Mandarin speaker.

距我上次来西双版纳已经过去了近十年。西双版纳傣族自治州属于热带气候，地处中国西南部云南省最南端，与老挝、缅甸和越南接壤。我们所在的景洪市是西双版纳傣族自治州首府，距北京约1500英里，相当于伦敦和莫斯科之间的距离。这次来，我再次被云南和云南菜的独特所震撼。酱油和醋是为人熟知的中国菜系的主要调料，但云南菜和这些知名菜系非常不同，在苏英的厨房里看不见两种佐料。她的调味香菜——锯齿草、柠檬草、越南香菜和薄荷——更具有东南亚风味；一些香料是当地特产，如云南樟果和野生四川辣椒。苏英边干活边用哈尼语和同伴聊天。哈尼语调子短促，不连贯对于会说普通话的我，根本听不懂她们在说什么。

Su Ying tosses a mixture of wild vegetables with lemongrass and chilli and parcels them up in broad banana leaves. She seasons sliced beef with chilli, herbs and spices and tumbles it into a tube of green, freshly cut bamboo, stoppering the tube with a scrumpled banana leaf and propping it up in the embers of the fire. Another tube is filled with a more exotic delicacy: live bamboo worms, wriggling, ivory-coloured grubs which she mixes with herbs and spices, tubes up and thrusts into the fire.

苏英把各种野菜混合在一起，将之与柠檬草和辣椒一同搅拌，然后用宽芭蕉叶把它们包好；用辣椒、各种香草和香料给切片牛肉调味，摇摇晃晃倒入绿色刚砍下来的竹筒中，再把芭蕉叶揉成一团塞住竹筒口，然后将竹筒放在炭火里。另一个竹筒中是更奇特的美味：她将象牙色的还在蠕动的活竹虫，同草药和香料混合在一起，塞入竹管，插入火中煨烤。

Later we gather around a table, laid with a cloth of banana leaves and topped with bamboo bowls, cups and chopsticks, to try her food. The banana-leaf parcels of meat and vegetables are sliced open to emit zesty, herbal aromas. Eggshells filled with minced pork and cooked in the ashes of the fire are served on a bamboo tray; a leaf-lined platter of raw vegetables arrives with a fruity dip (the local version of Thai nahm prik). The herb-spiked worms are juicily delicious. Even the rice has been cooked in bamboo tubes in the fire. “This is the kind of food I used to eat when I was small, growing up in the mountains,” Su Ying tells me.

稍后，我们围桌而坐品尝苏英烹制的食物。桌上铺着芭蕉叶拼成的桌布，摆放着竹碗、竹杯和竹筷。包裹着牛肉和蔬菜的芭蕉叶被切开，散发出浓郁的香草香味。各色美味被陆续端上桌：在灰烬中煨熟的蛋壳里塞满的猪肉糜，被盛放在竹盘里;各色生菜铺在衬有芭蕉叶的浅盘中，佐以水果味酱汁（云南版的泰国 nahm prik）。渗入香草的竹虫鲜美多汁。甚至米饭都是装在竹筒里在火里煮熟的。苏英告诉我，“我小时候在山里吃的就是这些食物”。

注：Nahm prik（如图所示）

Even for many Chinese, Yunnan seems exotic. Historically, it was a wayward province, ruled by local kings and chieftains, until the 13th century when Kublai Khan’s troops brought it into the vast Mongol empire. Yunnan is home not only to Han Chinese, who make up over 90% of China’s population, but 24 ethnic minorities, including Su Ying’s Hani people and the Dai, close cousins of the Tai of Laos and Thailand.

即使对许多中国人而言，云南也颇具异国情调。回顾历史，在13世纪忽必烈率军将之纳入广袤的蒙古帝国版图之前，云南一直由当地国王和酋长统治，偏安一隅。居住在云南的不仅有汉族6汉族是中国的主体民族，占总人口的90%以上），而且还有24个少数民族，包括苏英所在哈尼族和与老挝、泰国是近亲的傣族。

Yunnan encompasses a startling array of terrains and climates. In the north-west of the province you’ll find the thin air, snowy mountains and grazing yaks of the Tibetan plateau. Drive south from the capital Kunming, a recognisably Chinese city with a spring-like climate, and the landscape shifts from temperate to tropical, lush with banana, rubber and coffee trees. The green vegetation is splashed with electrifying colour.

云南省地貌千差万别，气候千变万化，令人惊异。云南省西北部空气稀薄，可以看见耸立的雪山和吃草的西藏高原牦牛。从人们熟知的省会春城昆明驱车向南，沿途的风景从温带转向热带，郁郁葱葱的香蕉树、橡胶树和咖啡树相继映入眼帘。茂盛的植被浓绿重彩，令人心情振奋。

The province is a global hotspot of biodiversity and the range of local ingredients is staggering. Most famously, the summer mushroom season yields some varieties of 300 edible fungi, including delicacies such as savoury matsutake and dark, crinkly ganba, a fungus with a striking umami flavour. Banana and pomegranate blossoms are just two of myriad edible flowers; there are countless wild plants and a cornucopia of bugs and grubs. One of the region’s renowned products is Yunnan ham, produced during the cool, arid winters in the north-east.

云南省的生物多样性世界闻名，而当地食材种类之多亦令人惊叹。夏日蘑菇季节出产的可食用菌品种高达300种，尤为盛名，很多都是美味佳肴，例如鲜美的松茸，鲜香扑鼻的布满皱褶的黑色干巴菌。香蕉花、石榴花只是无数可食用花中的两种;还有数不尽的野生植物和道不完的昆虫和幼虫。该地区广为人知的美食之一——云南火腿，就是在云南东北部凉爽、干燥的冬季里制作的。

注：

云南10大野生菌http://www.haoshanpu.com/news/7509

Yunnan’s remoteness has spared it much of the overdevelopment and pollution that have blighted other parts of China. So in recent years it has become a magnet for Chinese idealists in search of the good life, chefs seeking out wild and artisanal ingredients and hordes of domestic tourists. Many people have been exposed to its culinary delights for the first time and Yunnan restaurants have opened across the country. Yet the cuisine is almost unknown outside China apart from a handful of restaurants in cosmopolitan cities such as Los Angeles and Melbourne. “Cooking South of the Clouds” by Georgia Freedman, an American journalist, is one of the first cookbooks to trumpet the region’s gastronomic traditions.

云南因地势偏远而没有像中国其他城市那样被过度开发和污染。所以近年来，云南成为极具吸引力的世外桃源，中国的理想主义者来此寻找美好生活，厨师慕名前来探寻野生天然食材，国内游客也络绎不绝。许多人第一次品尝当地美食，而云南餐馆也在中国遍地开花。然而，除了在洛杉矶、墨尔本这类国际大都会中有几家云南餐厅之外，云南菜在国外几乎无人知晓。美国记者佐治亚·弗里德曼（Georgia Freedman）撰写的《云之南烹饪》是最早宣传该地区美食传统的烹饪书之一。

Given the distinctiveness of Yunnan food, the cuisine is unlikely to find its way out of China unless Yunnanese chefs move abroad. Immigration regulations in most countries make that unlikely. An even greater obstacle to the popularisation of Yunnan food abroad is its sheer diversity.

鉴于云南美食的独特性，除非云南大厨移居国外，否则云南菜很难走向世界。但大多数国家的移民管制使这很难实现。另一个在云南菜海外推广中遇到的更大阻碍，是其鲜明的多样性。

No one restaurant or chef could represent a region that’s such a patchwork of terroirs, languages and cultures. There is no single overarching Yunnan cuisine, but a selection of overlapping ones. And, more than anywhere else in China, a large proportion of the ingredients used in Yunnan are stubbornly local and unavailable elsewhere.

在一个地域分散、语言和文化差异大的地区，没有一家餐馆或一位厨师能够代表整个地区的菜系特色。在云南，没有哪一道菜能艳压群芳，而是各种菜品百花齐放。此外，与中国其他地方相比，云南菜中的大量配料都是地地道道的云南特产，在其他地方无处可寻。

Xishuangbanna alone is full of gastronomic revelations. One sunny winter morning, Ye Zengquan, a master chef and president of the local catering association, took me on a tour of Jinghong’s main food market. Dai women had laid their produce out on banana leaves: pork and beef cured in salt and chilli, white and purple rice cakes, home-made pickles and gnarled medicinal roots. Ye introduced me to dozens of ingredients I’d never encountered before. “Yunnan”, he told me, “is a gene bank of plants, animals and medicines.”

仅西双版纳的美食就令我大开眼界。一个明媚的冬日早晨，当地餐饮协会会长叶增权大厨带我参观了景洪最大的主食市场。傣族妇女将农产品铺在香蕉叶上：用盐和辣椒腌制的猪肉和牛肉，白色和紫色米糕，自制泡菜和多节草药根。叶增权向我介绍了许多我从未见过的食材。他说：“云南是动物、植物与药材的基因库。”

On another day we drove out of town along the graceful sweep of the Lancang river – known as the Mekong farther south – to Manzha village, where Dai people live in wooden houses. We stopped at a restaurant where starfruit and papayas hung heavy on trees. Perched on bamboo chairs we enjoyed Dai specialities including barbecued chicken, belly pork and herb-stuffed fish, all aromatic and charred from the grill. Later, for a taste of Xishuangbanna’s famous exotica, a tattooed hipster chef in Jinghong produced a banquet of bamboo worms, ant eggs, shiny beetles and – most sensationally – the brush grub, a long, pale worm that tastes exactly like sweetcorn and has to be extracted from a grassy stalk at the table.

另一天，我们沿着优美的澜沧江岸驾车出城，抵达曼扎村。澜沧江南端就是湄公河，而曼扎村里的傣族人就住在木头房子里。我们在一家餐馆停下脚步，门外的杨桃树和木瓜树挂满了果实。栖在竹椅上，我们尽情享用傣家特色美食——烤鸡、五花肉和填满香草的鱼，每一道菜都在架子上烤得外焦里嫩，香气扑鼻。之后，我们品尝了一番西双版纳的珍奇。一位来自景洪、有纹身的时髦厨师用各种虫和卵做成了一桌宴席，有竹虫、蚂蚁卵和亮闪闪的甲虫，最吓人的是一种灌木幼虫，需要把它从草茎里掏出来，味道像极了甜玉米。

Yet the food of Xishuangbanna is just one of Yunnan’s many gastronomic faces. On my trips to the province over the years I have dined on Tibetan staples such as toasted barley flour and yak butter tea in a town now known as Shangri-la, high on the Tibetan plateau. In the north-east I gorged on spicy hotpots, and even farther north I visited the centre of ham production in Xuanwei, where I supped on delicate soups and stews. Here in Xishuangbanna, I was tasting the sour and hot flavours and fresh herbs of the tropical south.

然而，西双版纳美食仅是云南菜的众多类别之一。在我这些年多次往返云南的旅途上，在青藏高原高处的香格里拉，我品尝过藏人的青稞面和牦牛奶；在东北部，狼吞虎咽地吃过麻辣火锅；甚至到过更北的位于宣威的火腿生产中心，在那里品尝精美可口的炖菜和汤。 而在西双版纳，我尝到的是南部热带所特有的酸、辣和新鲜香草芬芳。

The cuisine is like a fractal: the closer you look the more it expands into an infinity of possibilities. In an age of globalisation, when privileged urbanites can sample delicacies from practically anywhere without leaving home, Yunnan is a reminder that for a real taste of local culinary culture, sometimes you just have to go to the source.•

云南菜像分形图案，你越凑近看，它越展现无限可能。在全球化的时代，养尊处优的城里人足不出户就几乎可以品尝所有的各地美食。而云南的情况则提醒我们，要真实感受当地饮食文化，我们有时还得必须亲临源头探寻。

翻译组：

Yvonne，努力中的口译新人

Kemay，决心练好笔译的未来口译员

Lixia，女，爱爬山的健身小白，美食狂人

校对组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Mona，悦读悦译，以译会友

谈起曾经到过的地方，你会如何去回忆？印象最深的人和物？发生的小插曲，收获的小确幸？或许，更让人滔滔不绝的是那里的美食，让你想故地重游的美食。味觉给我们的记忆永远最深刻，最长久。问身处异国他乡的成都人，最想念什么？火锅，火锅，火锅。

云南呢？云南有太多的美食，而且伴随地域差异，气候、民族及文化的不同，各种特色不一而足，难怪作者也选不出云南的代表菜来。这里有四季如春的昆明，有雪山皑皑的高原，有各种可做食材的鲜花、菌菇、药草等等。除了食材本身，那些烹饪方式也独树一帜，一疏一菜之间，彩云之南的异域风情绝对令人难忘。

叹息云南美食在海外鲜有人知的同时，作者提议云南大厨移民海外去传播云南美食，实不敢苟同。全球化的当代，物流网日益发达，足不出户即可享受到各地美食，但是，由文化承载的美食，别具异域风味，绝对无法随意复制，只能亲临才可体验。即便6G、7G推出，能隔着屏幕闻到菜肴的香味，也无法替代所见即所得的味觉和感官盛宴，所谓饱了眼福，没饱口福。

我们在品尝美食的时候，只是为了一饱口福吗？恐怕更多的是一种生活体验吧，毕竟，衣食住行，食是组成生活的重要一环。而如今，快节奏的生活让我们轻而易举地压制了这种生活需求。“996”体制下，最先牺牲的是什么？食。快餐盛行，大家饮食不规律，而且慢慢习以为常。正因如此，李子柒的视频才那么火，透过她从容地准备天然食材，原始的耕种、收获、烹饪，大家体验到了都市快生活里已经遥不可及的宁静，与大自然的亲近，慢节奏生活的平和，以及简简单单的岁月静好。

所有事物都具有两面性，社会发展概莫能外。科技与社会发展越来越快，人的活动轨迹越来越广泛，理论上，你可以到访地球的任何一个角落，探寻刷新个人识见的体验。然而，令人惋惜的是，商业化已经让许多古朴的东西被迫更迭，快速化作历史，很多有趣的文化、美食、工艺等都在慢慢消失。无法想象若干年之后，那些云南菜肴都不再用香蕉叶或竹筒在小火上炙烤，而是全换成电磁炉、电饭锅。我们无法阻止社会进步和科技发展，也无法阻止文化的消亡，唯一能做的，就是趁还来得及，多体验一些。趁年轻，保持开放的心态，接受好奇心的引导，行万里路，且行且喜乐。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

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长按下图进行打赏

经济学人逝者 || 睡眠与梦境科学先驱威廉·迪蒙特

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491068&idx=1&sn=f5a9dc79fa0ff0af61dfc260f7a84ebc&chksm=fba04e5bccd7c74df6f7b60c666d71b9e5115bc6e0db1e4b10e8a31c10f2ca41305331dca8bc#rd

1

导读

关于相亲

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学位证，房产证等等

渣男勿扰

不然曝光

谢谢配合

女嘉宾合集如下（超链）：

女嘉宾一（94年）

女嘉宾二（93年）

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Perchance to dream

恍然成梦

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期逝者版块

Obituary: William Dement

逝者：威廉·迪蒙特

Perchance to dream

恍然成梦

William Dement, pioneer in the science of sleep and dreams, died on June 17th, aged 91

威廉·迪蒙特，睡眠与梦境科学先驱，于6月17日逝世，享年91岁。

There seemed nothing much wrong with Stanford, as far as William Dement could see. To someone like him, who had left New York in January 1963 with his car buried in snow, this university—with its palms, its Spanish-colonial buildings and its skies of unbroken blue—looked like paradise. He and his wife strolled about and ate ice creams, in January, in a state of wonder.

在威廉·迪蒙特看来，斯坦福大学似乎没什么不好。1963年一月，威廉离开纽约时，他的轿车还埋在厚厚的积雪里。对他来说，满眼棕榈绿、点缀着西班牙殖民时期建筑、笼罩在一望无际的蓝天下的斯坦福大学，简直就是人间天堂。他和妻子漫步在一月份的斯坦福，吃着冰激凌，对周围的一切充满了好奇。

Yet all was not quite perfect. When he made a scientific study of the students later, he found that 80% were dangerously sleep-deprived. That did not surprise him. In America, the problem was general. Adults longed for the sweet, peaceful slumber of children; but night after night they tossed and turned, lay awake for hours, contended with continually restless legs, and faced the new day feeling horrible. Worse, they woke up in debt: a debt of sleep, which like the financial kind was cumulative, making them more and more unhealthy until, at worst, they could barely function.

然而，斯坦福也并非完美。他后来以学生做科学研究时发现，80%的人睡眠严重不足。对此他并不吃惊。在美国，睡眠不足是普遍现象。成人向往能像孩子一样睡得又甜又香；但夜复一夜，他们辗转反侧，久久不能入眠，腿怎么放都不舒服，第二天感觉极其糟糕。更糟的是，他们醒来时已然“负债累累”——睡眠债，像金融债一样日积月累，让他们的健康状况越来越差，直到最坏的情况发生，人体几乎无法正常运转。

The result was a national plague of drowsiness. People blamed warm rooms or boring lectures for the fact that they kept nodding off in the daytime; but this was their sleep debt being called in. And the results, he warned them with increasing urgency, could be catastrophic. Someone who drowsed was mere seconds from sleep. The grounding of the Exxon Valdez, the near-meltdown at Three Mile Island, the loss of the space shuttle Challenger, had all been caused totally or in part by sleepy people. A horrendous number of the fatal accidents on America’s roads, especially among the young, were caused by drivers falling asleep at the wheel.

全民缺觉的结果就是，全民犯困。人们觉得白天总打瞌睡是因为屋里太暖和或者课堂太枯燥；其实这是他们在偿还睡眠债。威廉愈加焦急地发出警告，睡眠不足可能带来灾难性的后果。打瞌睡离睡着只有半步之遥。“埃克森·瓦尔迪兹号”油轮触礁、三里岛核电厂几近熔毁、“挑战者号”航天飞机坠毁，这些灾难全部或者部分由工作人员犯困造成。美国有大量的致命交通事故是驾驶员打瞌睡造成的，而在年轻人当中，这个比例尤其高。

More shocking to him was the fact that, well into the 1990s, America’s medical establishment barely noticed. It did not matter that sleep made up a third of human life. It was such a profound state of disengagement from the sensory world that, once their patients were in it, doctors lost interest, too. At the start of the decade, when he was appointed chairman of a federal commission that went through thousands of medical records, he found an estimated 40m Americans suffering from sleep problems that were undiagnosed and thus untreated. In 1993 Congress set up a National Centre on Sleep Disorders Research, but progress was slow. Five years later, when he gave evidence to the health and environment subcommittee, he reckoned that almost half America’s adults had insomnia and as many as a quarter had obstructive sleep apnea, which stopped their breathing hundreds of times a night. That could prove fatal. Yet the lack of awareness in society, and the indifference of doctors, remained “pervasive and complete”, as if almost everyone apart from himself was still in Morpheus’s thrall.

让他更为震惊的是，到20世纪90年代，这一现象几乎仍未受到美国医疗机构的关注。睡眠占据人类生命的三分之一，却无人重视。人人对睡眠问题不闻不问，已到脱离现实的地步，只要看病就医的人对睡眠问题不管不顾，医生也渐渐没兴趣深究。90年代初期，威廉曾担任联邦委员会主席，他们查阅了成千上万份病历，威廉发现约有4000万美国人遭受睡眠问题的困扰但并未得到确诊，因此也没有获得任何治疗。1993年，国会设立了国家睡眠障碍研究中心，但研究进展缓慢。五年后，他向健康和环境小组委员会提供证明，认为近一半美国成年人患有失眠症，而多达四分之一的人患有阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停综合征，他们在夜间呼吸会停止数百次。这可能存在致命风险。然而，社会大众缺乏意识、医生们无动于衷的现象却“根深蒂固，难以撼动”，仿佛除了他，几乎所有人仍身处墨菲斯的掌控之中，深受其害。

注：

1.Morpheus：墨菲斯，希腊神话中的梦魔，梦境的掌控者。

2. in sb’s/sth’s thrall: controlled or strongly influenced by sb/sth 受……控制，深受……影响

His pursuit of the sleeping self had long been fairly solitary. In the 1950s he began to study dreaming—that strange activity which, every night, allowed him to be quietly and safely insane—at the University of Chicago and then at Mount Sinai in New York. There his apartment was his laboratory, where volunteers, including Rockettes from Radio City Music Hall and a girl he was especially sweet on, were fitted with electrodes and regularly roused to see if they recalled their dreams. He discovered that in rem sleep, where eye movements were rapid and sleep shallower, the eyes followed what people were observing in their dreams, though all their limbs stayed still. This was intriguing; but since he had come no closer to unveiling the purpose of dreams, and never did, he arrived in Stanford with his focus already turned to sleep.

在睡眠的研究之路上，他一直孑孓独行。20世纪50年代，他先后在芝加哥大学和纽约的西奈山医院研究梦——正是这奇怪的梦，让他得以每夜悄然入睡，在梦中极尽疯狂，却又安然无恙。他的家就是实验室，他在那招募志愿者，包括来自纽约无线电城音乐厅的火箭女郎舞团，还有一个他非常喜欢的女孩。志愿者们在那儿戴上电极装置，睡觉时被定时唤醒，看他们是否记得自己所做的梦。。他发现，在快速眼动睡眠中，即眼睛转动很快、睡眠很浅，，人的眼睛跟随着梦中观察到的东西转动，而四肢保持不动。虽然这个发现这很有趣，但他无法揭示做梦的原因，后来也没有找到答案，在到斯坦福大学时，他的研究方向已经转向了睡眠。

注：

rem ：rapid eye movement <生理>(睡眠中的)快速眼动

It was a good moment. At a heady time of protest and upheaval he was nicely alternative, a shaggy-haired professional bass-player as well as a scientist, who had jammed with Quincy Jones and Stan Getz on his houseboat when he was at college in Seattle. In 1970 he set up a sleep clinic in Stanford, probably the world’s first and now one of its biggest, where he tested insomniac volunteers. In summer he ran sleep camps, deploying more electrodes. To study narcolepsy, the uncontrollable urge to sleep most of the time, he brought in a dozy French poodle called Monique and, in a while, established a much-loved sleepy-dog colony.

他遇上了好时候。在充斥着抗议与动乱的年代里，他有时是头发蓬乱的职业贝斯手，有时做科学家，在两个角色之间转换自如。在西雅图上大学时，音乐创作人昆西·琼斯和爵士萨克斯手斯坦·盖茨就和他一起挤在他的船屋里。1970年，他在斯坦福开了一家睡眠诊所，为患失眠症的志愿者检测，这可能是世界首家，到现在也是最大的睡眠诊所之一。夏季，他开设睡眠夏令营，并配置了更多电极设备。为了研究发作性睡病（即不可控的睡眠发作），他引进了一只叫莫妮卡的昏昏欲睡的法国狮子狗。不久之后，他设立了一个广受喜爱的嗜睡狗阵营地。

注：houseboat

His Sleep and Dreams class was phenomenally popular right from the start, in 1971. So many signed up for the first lecture that no space was big enough except Memorial Church. And the class, which he went on teaching past 90, became famous, a sort of true-believers’ gathering, where heavy-eyed students would be sprayed awake with his trusty squirt gun and made to shout “Drowsiness is red alert!”, the motto of the cause. He looked on his students as an army of proselytisers, and in the end word spread: by this year there were more than 3,000 sleep clinics in America, and medical schools increasingly took the subject seriously. Not least, his small home town of Walla Walla, Washington, which he had used as a test case, had become the Healthy Sleep Capital of the world.

他的睡眠与梦境课从1971年开课起就非常受欢迎。报名参加第一堂课的人数众多，以至于除了纪念教堂，没有其他足够大的空间能容纳众人。这门课也变得非常有名，他90多岁时还在授教。课堂就像是忠实信徒集会，睡眼朦胧的学生们在他激昂的讲授中保持清醒，并大喊课程格言“犯困是红色警报！”他把学生看作这一观点的传播者，而最终成果显现：到那年年底，美国开设了3000多家睡眠诊所，医学院也越来越重视这一科目。无独有偶，他把位于华盛顿州瓦拉瓦拉市的家乡小镇作为研究案例，这也成为了世界健康睡眠之都。。

So what did he advise himself to ensure blissful slumber? His several books and his website, “The Sleep Well”, offered all kinds of tips. Most of them quickly became familiar: ergonomic pillows, a cool dark room, warm baths, no daytime naps, no alcohol or caffeine within four hours of bedtime. If sleep had not come in 20 minutes, it was best to sit quietly in the dark or read something dull, like the warranty on the refrigerator, until the eyelids closed. The best response when caught napping in the office was: “And I especially thank you for my excellent boss. Amen.”

那么，他有什么确保幸福安睡的建议呢？他出版的几本书和他的网站“The Sleep Well”上都提供了各种助眠技巧，其中很多很快得到普及：人体工程学枕头、凉爽的暗室、温水洗浴，白天不要小睡，就寝前四小时不要摄入酒精或咖啡因。如果躺20分钟还未入睡，最好静静坐在黑暗中或者阅读一些无聊的东西（例如冰箱上的保修单），直到眼皮合上。如果白天在办公室打盹被撞个正着，最佳反应是说：“我特别感谢我优秀的老板。阿门。”

He hoped, however, that people would determine their own sleep requirement and best practice. His was relaxed. He loved to watch favourite films again, especially “Lilies of the Field”, even if he already knew that the nuns would make Sidney Poitier build them that church; or read favourite books again, in his case the detective stories of Rex Stout, even if he already knew how every single one turned out. Re-runs of the sit-com “Everybody Loves Raymond” sent him off with wonderful ease. So much for no screens before bed. He drifted away by 10pm or so and was up by 5am, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, with not a trace of sleep-debt.

然而，他希望人们能清楚自己的睡眠需求，并采取最佳的助眠方法。他选择让自己睡前放松。他喜欢重复看自己喜爱的电影，尤其是《野百合》，即便他已经知道修女会让西德尼·普瓦捷为她们建造教堂；或重读感兴趣的书籍，比如他喜欢雷克斯·斯托特的侦探小说，即便他已经知道每个案子的结果；看看情景喜剧《人人都爱雷蒙德》的重播也会让他倍感放松。睡前不再看屏幕也不是绝对的。晚上十点他就沉沉睡去，第二天清晨五点起床，双眼明亮、精神焕发，没有一点睡眠困扰。

Almost inevitably, he died in his sleep. What transformations he might have discovered then, after that first so-simple and daily one, it would have been nice to know.

好像是命中注定，他在睡梦中去世。继之前简单日常的活动中的研究之后，这次他可能又有新发现，如果我们能知道该多好啊。

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Lucia，英语专业学生，经济学人爱好者

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉
Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉

Rachel Zhang，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Nikolai，热爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49

睡眠是什么？它是占据我们生活三分之一的过程，是大脑休息、排毒的过程，也是身体从一天的劳累中恢复的过程。之前曾读过一个有关睡眠时间的研究，称人在婴儿时期的睡眠需求时间是最长的，为12个小时；而随着年龄的增长，需求的睡眠时间越来越短，70-80岁时，降低到仅有5-6小时。于是就出现了这么一个情况，年轻人在最需要睡眠的时候，反倒是最缺睡眠的人群。996是一种情况，一两点睡觉六七点起床是常态，参加某次会议的时候昏昏欲睡，每次一回到家绝对不能坐下，否则顷刻就会困得不省人事。

我亲爱的老父亲就是一个这样的人。年轻的时候由于厂子离家比较远，每天清晨五点钟就要出门，晚上九点钟才能回家，再加上本人当时还很闹腾，经常晚上十二点了还精气神十足，让他受了许久睡眠不足之苦。后来，等到条件稍微好点了，我已经不那么闹腾了，但厂子逐渐发展壮大，事情越来越多，能见到老父亲的时间捉襟见肘，常常一连几天都打不了几个招呼，偶尔能见上一面也是睡眼惺忪，要么就是大冬天地躺在冰凉的沙发上呼呼大睡。现在，五十多岁的老父亲仍旧在一线奋斗，虽然工作量有所减轻，但在睡眠问题上已经形成了习惯。一倒在沙发上，只需一分钟，地震了都醒不来。

我宁可相信，大多数年轻人的睡眠不足是像我家老父亲当年一样，或是为了国家、为了革命，或是为了自己和家人更美好的生活而奋斗。然而，随着现代科技的逐步发展，我们的睡眠正在被另一样东西蚕食：网络。请大家扪心自问，自己每天晚上上床之后，还要花多少时间在朋友圈、抖音、知乎等等网站之上？一时看一时爽，看完之后再后悔，说居然看到了这个时候，明天上班（上学）怎么办，明天不能再这样了，结果第二天又重蹈覆辙，然后再后悔、再发誓，重复着这样的循环。睡眠不仅关系到我们在白天的效率，也会影响工作安全，人际交往等等。本人前一天晚上加班搞生产，搞到一两点钟睡觉，第二天又要开会，必定会在会场上睡着。不是有一个默认的社会文明公约，叫“不要在公共场合放屁”吗？然而，屁乃人生之气，你能说不放就不放吗？同样，觉也不能说不睡就不睡，困劲上来了，挡也挡不住啊！

话虽如此，但睡眠这个问题也长久地困扰着我们这些炎黄子孙。睡眠问题是如何产生的？怎么就没听说几岁十几岁的小孩有什么睡眠问题？归根结底，还是生活这座大山和网络这个温柔乡的共同作用。尽管被领导一下子从睡梦中吼醒，然后两腿使劲往前一蹬，把坐在前面的同事踢了个底朝天，事后还被好好训斥了一通，但我的睡眠问题和我家老父亲的睡眠问题一样，是生活把这份不想要的礼物送给了我们。

脑中风、猝死、脑溢血、生产事故、交通事故，基本上在人世间各种不幸的身上，都可以找到睡眠不足的影子。有效且充足的睡眠是身体的保证，身体是革命的本钱，但我们为了革命，正在逐渐透支我们的本钱。

感谢大家阅读本人的胡诌。如果觉得自己有睡眠问题，请尽早到睡眠诊所就医。如果同志在杭州地区，杭州的睡眠诊疗中心在天目山路丰潭路口附近，本人大学时代受其关照良久。

看完了吗？别再看其他内容了，赶快上床休息！

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

经济学人科技 || 高科技考古

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491062&idx=1&sn=8ddc8c90fc0c0a598aa3f66cc58d1750&chksm=fba04e51ccd7c74704d02c949d429942b649b9b4e37f582758363677ce7359ce1eda40a971ed#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者
Step by step, 爱翻译爱研究的理工男，经济学人铁粉，二笔二口冲刺者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组 

How illuminating

发人深省

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期科技版块

Archaeology

考古学

How illuminating

发人深省

Measuring luminescence helps to date a remarkable new discovery at Stonehenge

测光技术帮助确认巨石阵全新发现的年代

注：在巨石阵附近发现的环形坑群，可能使它成为欧洲最大的史前遗址

https://m.sohu.com/a/404117810_120368922/?_trans_=000014_bdss_dkgyxqsP3p:CP=&pvid=000115_3w_a&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

High-tech archaeology

高科技考古

For more than 4,000 years Stonehenge has stood on Salisbury Plain in southern Britain. The landscape surrounding the Neolithic monument contains many secrets, with features dating back to much earlier times. Having surveyed more than 18 square kilometres in the vicinity, archaeologists continue to make surprising discoveries. The latest, a series of deep pits forming a vast circle more than two kilometres in diameter, shows how technology makes it possible to peer even further back into time.

英国南部索尔兹伯里平原上的巨石阵已经岿然屹立了四千多年。新石器时代纪念碑附近的地域也隐藏着众多奥秘，它们某些特征指向更早的时代。对巨石阵附近18平方公里区域进行研究后，考古学家们不断有惊人发现。考古学家发现，一组深坑形成环形坑群，这些深坑直径超过两公里。这表明，利用科技，可以揭示远古奥秘。

Along with their shovels, trowels and brushes, archaeologists have put together a toolbox of new technologies. Using magnetometers, which can detect how different materials in the ground cause slight changes in Earth’s magnetic field, they found a series of anomalies forming circular disturbances in the ground on a broad arch around Durrington Walls, the remains of another large henge three kilometres north-east of Stonehenge. These were thought to be old filled-in ponds.

除了铁铲、泥刀和刷子，考古学家们还会使用一系列新技术。如磁力计，可以探测不同地下物质对地磁场的轻微影响。在巨石阵东北方向三公里处，有另一处名为杜灵顿垣墙的巨石遗迹，在环绕杜灵顿墙的拱形地面上，考古学家发现了一系列造成了圆形扰动的异常现象。这些圆形区域被认为是已经填平的旧水池。

But ground-penetrating radar, another archaeological tool, raised questions about that notion. This technique, which reflects radio waves off underground structures, showed that far from being shallow, as ponds would have been, the anomalous features had deep vertical sides. They were some ten metres across and five metres or more deep. Up to 20 shafts were identified, but there may have been 30 or more as some of the land is now covered by buildings and roads. The archaeologists thought it was time to take a closer look with more high-tech tools.

但是，另一考古工具探地雷达的使用让人们对上述提法产生了质疑。探地雷达法通过无线电波反射来确定地下构造，探测结果表明，这些原以为是旧水池的坑比普通水池深，不规则的坑壁垂直深度很深。它们的直径约10米，深度5米以上。目前已经探测到20个，但实际可能有多达30多个，因为一些土地现在已经是高楼林立、道路纵横了。考古学家认为，是时候用更先进的高科技工具来一探究竟了。

Vince Gaffney of the University of Bradford and a team of researchers from Britain, Austria, Sweden and Norway, drilled into three of the sites to extract core samples. Fragments of shell and bone were found. As these fragments are organic materials containing carbon, they could be subjected to radiocarbon dating. This measures the presence of carbon-14, a mildly radioactive isotope created naturally in the atmosphere by cosmic rays. As this element decays, older samples have less carbon-14 in them than modern ones, and because the rate of radioactive decay is predictable, a date for the sample can be calculated.

布拉德福德大学的文斯·加夫尼（Vince Gaffney）和来自英国、奥地利、瑞典和挪威的研究人员小组一起，在三个深坑处打孔获取核心样本，在样本中他们发现了贝壳和残骨。这些残片是含有碳元素的有机物，所以研究人员可以采用放射性碳年代测定法。该方法可以检测碳14，碳14是一种由宇宙射线在大气中自然产生的轻度放射性同位素。它会随时间衰减，年代越久远的样本碳14含量越低，且放射衰减率是可预测的，所以研究人员可以据此推算出样本的产生时间。

The dates, though, varied widely; up to 6000bc for some of the shells and around 1300bc for some bones. Moreover, if a pit had been gradually filled in over the years, older material would have appeared at the bottom and younger material near the top. But some of the dates were inverted, showing older material near the top.

然而检测显示，样本产生年代时间跨度很大：有些贝壳产生于公元前6000年，另一些骨头则产生于公元前1300年。另外，如果是随着时间推移，这些深坑逐渐被填满，那么越久远的物质应该在底部，而时期较短的物质则在上面。。但是一些样本探测结果却相反，年代久远的物质反而出现在靠近坑顶的位置。

To work out what might have gone on, the archaeologists reached for one of their newest tools: optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). This measures when fragments of rocks made of quartz or feldspar, two of the world’s most common groups of minerals, were last exposed to sunlight.

为了探明原因，考古学家们采取另一种新技术：即“光释光法”（OSL）。该技术可以测量岩石碎片中石英或长石（世界上最常见的两种矿物）最后暴露在太阳下的时间。

The OSL process can be likened to measuring the power in a rechargeable battery, explains Tim Kinnaird, who tested the samples from the shafts at his lab at the University of St Andrews. When quartz and feldspar are removed from sunlight and buried, electrons start to accumulate in defects in their crystal structures from exposure, in the ground, to low levels of environmental radiation. When the minerals are re-exposed to the outside world, the electrons are stimulated with enough energy to escape their traps and they go on to release photons of light. As the intensity of this luminescence is directly proportional to the amount of environmental radiation absorbed by the minerals, this can be used to work out when they were last exposed to sunlight.

圣安德鲁斯大学的提姆·金纳德（Tim Kinnaird）在他实验室中测试了深坑样品，他解释说，光释光法的测量过程类似于测量可充电电池的电量。当石英和长石被避光掩埋后，电子会在其晶体结构的缺陷（缺陷是因为先前暴露在阳光中而形成的）中积聚，从而对周围环境形成低能级的辐射。当矿物重见天日时，电子被激活并积聚足够能量挣脱束缚，持续释放光子。由于矿物的发光强度与吸收的环境辐射量成正比，据此可以计算出矿物样品最后一次暴露在阳光下的时间。

As they report in Internet Archaeology, the OSL analysis allowed the researchers to put the various radiocarbon dates and the different layers in their core samples into some context. The shells were considered outliers, as they probably contained material from earlier times. The inverted dates seemed to be caused by later earthworks, which might have exposed minerals to light and reset their timeclocks. One pit appears to have been recut in the Bronze Age. But there was enough of a reliable sample to date the pits to around 2500bc, which means they would have been dug by the same people who built Stonehenge.

他们发布在《互联网考古》上的报告显示，光释光法让研究人员将岩心样本中不同测年数据和不同岩层联系起来。贝壳类可能含有早期物质，因此属于外露层。形成时间与深浅位置不相符则是因为后期的土木工程，让矿物质重新暴露在光线下，从而重置了它们的末次曝光的时间。其中一个深坑似乎在青铜器时代被再次挖掘。但大量可靠样本显示，这些深坑可以追溯至公元前2500年，也就是说，它们很有可能都是由巨石阵建造者挖掘的。

What purpose the pits served remains speculation. They would have required a massive effort to build, with tools made from stone, wood and bone. They may have been boundary markers, possibly containing large totem-like poles. Henges have cosmological significance and some think Stonehenge was a site for the dead while Durrington Walls, which had wooden structures, was a site for the living. The archaeologists hope to open up trenches throughout the pits to discover more.

但这些深坑的用途依然是个谜。制造深坑是一项十分巨大的工程，需要借助由石头、木头以及骨头制作的工具来完成。它们也许是边界线标记，可能还包含图腾般的大型柱体。圆形石结构具有宇宙学意义，有人认为巨石阵是逝者的安息之地，而含木质结构的杜灵顿墙则是为生者而建。考古学家希望通过挖掘深坑四周的壕沟，来寻求更多的发现。

The ancient olive

远古的橄榄树

Elsewhere, OSL is proving successful in some surprising areas. Eren Sahiner of Ankara University in Turkey used the technique to date Ata Agac (Grand Tree), an ancient olive tree in western Turkey. The age of a tree can normally be determined by counting its growth rings, but the centres of ancient trees have often rotted away, making estimates difficult. Dr Sahiner carefully dug six holes to collect mineral samples from around the tree’s roots. His analysis, published in Journal of Quaternary Science, showed that quartz and feldspar in the soil were last exposed to sunlight up to around 3,000 years ago. That, reckons Dr Sahiner, means Ata Agac was probably planted during the Iron Age by early Greeks who valued olive oil imported from other regions and were keen to plant trees to produce their own. Which just goes to show how illuminating a photon can be.

此外，光释光法在一些意想不到的领域获得了成功。土耳其安卡拉大学的艾伦·沙希内尔（Eren Sahiner）博士用这项技术来测定土耳其西部一棵名为Ata Agac（宏伟的树木）的古代橄榄树的年代。一般通过年轮就能计算一棵树的年龄，但古树的中央通常都会腐烂，所以很难测定。沙希内尔博士小心地在树根上挖了六个洞来收集矿物样本。他发表在《第四季科学杂志》上的分析结果显示，土壤中石英和长石最后一次暴露在阳光中的时间在3000年前。这也就意味着，这颗橄榄树很有可能是在铁器时代由希腊人种下的，因为当时希腊人十分珍视从其他地区进口的橄榄油，所以期望能种植橄榄树自己生产。这正好表明了光释光法的启发性。

翻译组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

校核组：

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译
Anne，女，爱读书爱Borges的小翻译，热爱文艺，经济学人爱好者

Helen，女，坐标武汉，职业翻译，翻硕已毕业英语二笔二口，爱好陶笛洞箫古诗词

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

本文其实比较枯燥，讲的就是用一种新技术来帮助人们更好地研究英国巨石阵。概括起来，也就是现代科技如何助力考古研究。那么我们延伸开来，就来谈一谈科技对人文社科发展起到的作用。其实除了本文提到的C-14测算时间和OSL帮助考古，在其他人文社科领域，现代科技一样发挥着非常重要的作用。

相信关注这个公众号的朋友们对于上海外国语大学一定不陌生，在大家印象中，这依旧还是语言学习的殿堂，但殊不知，上外已经开始转型了。这所与共和国同龄的语言类高校已经开始与理工科结合，推动学校的全面发展。以上外国际工商管理学院为例，在今年该学院购进磁共振设备，成为了全国第一个购买磁共振设备、硬件设施最好的管理学院之一。为什么要买磁共振设备？简单来说，是为了研究人在做出各种管理决策时大脑的活动状态，也就是将神经科学与管理科学相结合。由此，出现了很多很多的新式学科，包括消费行为与神经决策等。而且上外传统的语言研究也因为现代科技，焕发出新的生命力。当前的语言学研究已经不再局限于训诂和语音的研究，还能参与到研究人类语言发展的实际功能中去。语言研究可以与心理学交叉、与神经科学交叉，转向心理语言学、神经语言学等等。除了管理和语言研究，翻译一样可以与高科技结合。随着人工智能翻译的出现，越来越多的人唱衰人工翻译，认为机器最终会取代人类。但是作为国内第一的上外高翻却早在几年前就已经拥抱了这一大潮流，与科大讯飞签约，开始探索人工智能辅助下的翻译实践和翻译教学新模式。毫无疑问，将来人工智能不会取代人类翻译（如果真的取代了，那么意味着机器可以克服“创造力”这一难题，所有设计工作也可以被取代，人类差不多到了共产主义了），反而会辅助人类翻译，减轻译员的工作量，让译员更注重提高翻译的质量，不管是口译还是笔译，都是如此。

日常生活中大家其实也尝到过现代科技对于人文社科的推动效应带来的好处。数字敦煌和数字故宫就是两个很好的例子。虽然游客很少会对文物进行研究，但由于数字化，人们还是可以足不出户便领略到中国文化的精彩。而且，也让更多的人接触到了故宫和敦煌，其中不乏国际友人，对推广中国文化起到了非常重要的作用。

学科融合在将来必定是学术研究的常态，不仅是自然科学助力社会科学，社会科学反过来也可以指导自然科学研究。我非常期待这种融合，它让我们看到一切可能。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“加入TE讨论群",小编通过后，请做好以下三点：

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

来一起升级打怪吧（高颜值高学历小姐姐相亲啦）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491062&idx=2&sn=f4537d98c261e4d73ecef74b307c3a2d&chksm=fba04e51ccd7c74736cc3fdcbdecea38a84fe7d8f3da67bcd59a8352f65b5301bfb0ae627ea0#rd

【小姐姐的自我介绍~~】

93年江南妹子，top3高校硕士，高颜值身材佳；三甲医院医生；工作稳定，朝八晚五；温柔诚挚，常常独立有主见，偶尔撒娇小女生；热爱生活，动静相宜，技能点超多（钢琴舞蹈主持，更多技能可以一起发掘）；父母国企，家庭幸福，城市独生女。

【想对未来的你说~~】

一个人的日子可以快乐而充实，但仍希望有个你可以分享生活的苦乐，一起升级打怪，拥抱更精彩的未来～那么，这样的我，你会勇敢一次吗？

【必要项~~】

1.身高175-185；

2.年份88-95，未婚单身；

3.已工作且base上海，

（抱歉，在校学生只接受博士在读）；

4.有缘相遇，非诚勿扰，谢谢。

【加分项~~】

1.本人稍微颜控哈哈；

2.江浙沪包邮区最好；

3.海内外重点高校（本科也可）。

请有缘人赶紧私信小编吧！

---End---

经济学人财经 || 消费者信心何其脆弱

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491049&idx=1&sn=f68d7137dbe1f6d113d035a63b3397b6&chksm=fba04e4eccd7c758874bcc551759c231ea62a94a8ee51865d0a4beaadbce8cd4c925c4d6c94f#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The global economy

 全球经济

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期Finance版块

The global economy

全球经济

How to feel better

如何才能好受些

Some economies are recovering speedily—but our analysis shows just how fragile consumer confidence can be

一些经济体正在快速复苏——但我们的分析表明消费者的信心可能非常脆弱

Orford ness, on Britain’s east coast, was a site for military tests in the 20th century. Large pagodas on the shoreline, still standing today, were designed to prevent blasts from doing damage to the surrounding wetlands. On July 4th the area braced itself for another sort of explosion. “Super Saturday” marked the opening of pubs and restaurants for the first time since lockdown began. But in Orford the beery bomb never detonated. The Jolly Sailor, a pub near the quay, had only a handful of customers in the garden. Across Britain it was the same story. Restaurant reservations remained 90% lower than they were the year before.

位于英国东海岸的奥福德岬在20世纪曾是军事测试基地。海岸线上原本用来保护周围湿地免受爆炸破坏的大型灯塔如今依旧耸立。今年7月4日，奥福德岬迎来了又一次的“爆炸”。这一天被称为“超级星期六”，酒吧和餐馆自疫情封锁以来首次开放。但“啤酒炸弹”在奥福德岬并为就此引爆。码头附近的一家“快乐水手”酒吧，啤酒花园里客人寥寥无几。整个儿英国情况其实都差不多，餐馆的预订数量比去年减少了90%。

The fate of the Jolly Sailor hints at the difficulties that rich countries face as they lift lockdowns. Most forecasters reckon that advanced-economy output, after plunging in the first half of 2020, is likely to regain its pre-crisis level some time after 2021. But not all recoveries will be equal. Some rich countries, such as Germany and South Korea, look best placed to bounce back—a “V-shaped recovery”, in the jargon. The path of GDP elsewhere may look more like an l or a W. The Economist’s analysis of real-time mobility data also shows how easily economic recoveries can go wrong, as consumers react to the possibility of fresh outbreaks.

快乐水手的命运反映出封锁结束后发达国家所面临的困难。大部分的预测人士认为，发达经济体的产出在2020年上半年遭受重创后，可能会在2021年之后恢复到危机前的水平。然而恢复程度各有不同。一些发达国家比如德国和韩国，最有可能反弹——用行话说就是"V型复苏"。其他国家的GDP走势可能更像I型或者W型。《经济学人》根据实时移动数据分析也表明，由于消费者对于新一轮疫情爆发可能性的担忧，经济复苏非常容易遇阻。

Some countries have a tougher job on their hands because their output has fallen more since February, when lockdowns started to be imposed. No one knows for sure yet who has fared well or badly. GDP data for the second quarter are not yet available, and in any case will probably be subject to large revisions over time, as is often the case in downturns. But industrial structure is one indication. Surveys of economic activity in Germany suggest that it held up better between March and May than it did in France, Italy or Spain. That may be because of its heavy reliance on manufacturing, where maintaining both output and a social distance is easier than, say, in retail or hospitality services. Capital Economics, a consultancy, argues that Poland will experience Europe’s smallest contraction in GDP this year in part because it relies little on foreign tourists.

一些国家目前面临更为艰巨的任务。因为他们的生产力比2月实施封锁后降幅更大了。现在还不能确切地评判哪个国家表现得好或差。今年第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)尚未公布，而且无论如何，GDP都可能会随着时间推移而经历大幅调整，这是经济衰退期的常见情形。不过工业结构是一个指标。对德国经济活动的调查显示，在3月至5月期间德国比法国、意大利和西班牙表现更好。这可能是因为德国严重依赖制造业，而制造业相对于零售业或者酒店服务业，更容易在维持产量的同时保持社交距离。咨询机构凯投宏观（Capital Economics）认为，波兰今年的GDP降幅会是欧洲国家中最小的，部分原因是其经济不依赖于外国游客。

The stringency of official lockdowns, and changes to people’s behaviour, has clearly played a huge role. Research by Goldman Sachs, a bank, finds that lockdown stringency—in terms of both the strength of official rules and how enthusiastically people practised social distancing—is strongly correlated with the hit to economic activity, as measured by surveys. By this measure, Italy had the tightest lockdown for the most time (see chart 1). A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that its GDP for the first half of 2020 is likely to come in about 10% lower than it would have been otherwise—a lot of ground to make up for a country that struggled to grow even before the pandemic. By contrast, South Korea’s GDP looks likely to fall by 5%.

官方封锁的严格程度和人们行为的变化显然扮演了重要的角色。投行高盛研究表明，封锁举措的严格性（指官方措施的强度和人们对于实施社交距离的热情度）与经济活动受到的影响呈强相关。依据这个指标，意大利实施的封锁最严格、时间最长（见表1）。粗略估算表明，意大利上半年的GDP有可能比正常时期低10%，如果不是严格封锁，意大利需要弥补的敞口将更大。相比之下，韩国的GDP可能将下降5%。

注：

1. back-of-the-envelope: 粗略的计算

2. make up ground: to move faster in order to come closer to someone or something ahead 追赶，缩小差距

The lifting of lockdowns is now boosting economic activity. By how much, however, varies from country to country. Real-time activity data suggest that America and Spain are laggards, not only in terms of visits to restaurants but also to workplaces and public-transport stations. Others are powering ahead. By the end of June, economic life in Denmark and Norway had pretty much returned to normal. Danish retail sales actually rose by more than 6% year-on-year in May (compared with a double-digit decline in Britain). Germany’s restaurants were closed in May. But in recent days they have returned to full capacity (see left-hand panel of chart 2).

解封正在促进经济活动。然而，能够有多大的效果，每个国家都不尽相同。实时活动数据显示，美国和西班牙不仅在餐馆的访客量上落后，在工作场所和公共交通站点的人流量也不尽如人意。而其他国家正在奋力前进。到6月底，丹麦和挪威的经济生活基本恢复正常。丹麦5月份的零售额比去年同期增长逾6% ，相比之下，英国的零售额同比下降两位数。德国的餐馆在5月份仍处于关闭状态。但近期，它们已经恢复到满座的状态（见图表2左侧数据）。

A number of factors influence how fast an economy can bounce back. The state of households’ finances is one. Government support has shored these up: in places where stimulus payments have been large and focused on families, people have built up large cash reserves, which they can now spend. Take the case of South Korea. Households quickly spent over 80% of a 10trn-won (0.5% of GDP, or $8.4bn) emergency handout. As a result, its economy might suffer less than other big advanced economies. Aggregate household income in Japan is forecast to rise this year, thanks in part to generous emergency payments from the state. By contrast, fiscal stimulus in Italy, which had staggeringly high government debt going into the crisis, has been less generous.

影响经济复苏速度的因素有很多。家庭财务状况就是其中之一。政府的支持也进一步加强了这一点：在那些刺激性支出很大且主要针对家庭的地区，人们已经积攒了大笔现金储备可用于消费。以韩国为例，10万亿韩元（占国内生产总值的0.5%，约合84亿美元）的紧急救济金中，家庭支出迅速超出80%。因此，与其他大型发达经济体相比，韩国经济遭受的损失可能更小。预计日本今年的家庭总收入将有所增长，这在一定程度上要归功于日本政府慷慨的紧急援助。相比之下，疫情前本就债台高筑的意大利的财政刺激政策就显得没那么大方了。

注：

1. bounce ：n. 弹力；活力；跳；vt. 弹跳；使弹起；vi. 弹起，反跳；弹跳；弹回

2. shore up：If you shore up something that is weak or about to fail, you do something in order to strengthen it or support it.

All this is nothing without consumer confidence. Americans have oodles of stimulus cash in their pockets (see United States section). Even so, they are cautious. A raft of evidence shows that if consumers are fearful, then lifting lockdowns makes little difference to economic outcomes. An analysis of American counties by Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago, for instance, finds that a higher number of deaths from covid-19 is associated with lower consumer activity.

没有消费者信心支撑，一切都是徒劳。美国人拥有大量的经济刺激资金(见美国部分)。即便如此，他们还是很谨慎。大量证据表明，如果消费者感到恐惧，那么哪怕解封对经济结果也几乎没有影响。例如，芝加哥大学的奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）和查德·西维尔森（Chad Syverson）对美国各郡县的分析发现，新冠病毒导致的死亡人数越多，该郡县的消费活动就越少。

注：

cautious：Someone who is cautious acts very carefully in order to avoid possible danger.

That seems to be the case at the country level too. Those with a smaller number of deaths from covid-19 per million people have bounced back more decisively, according to an analysis by The Economist using data from Google on visits to retail outlets, workplaces and public-transport stations. Confidence today may also be shaped by the length of time spent under lockdown. Norway took just ten days to halve the intensity of its lockdown from its peak level. Many other European countries took ten weeks, however. That perhaps explains why Britons and Spaniards are still so cautious.

国家层面也同样如此。《经济学人》根据从谷歌获得的零售商店、工作场所、公共交通站的访客数据分析得出，每百万人中新冠病毒死亡人数越少的国家，民众越快重新振作。当下的信心或许也受封锁时长所决定。挪威仅花10天就把封锁强度从顶峰状态减半，但许多欧洲其他国家则花了十周时间。这可能解释了为何英国人和西班牙人仍表现得如此谨慎。

注：

1. bounce back：重新振作 If you bounce back after a bad experience, you return very quickly to your previous level of success, enthusiasm, or activity. 

2. decisive：adj. 坚决的；果断的；决断的 able to decide sth quickly and with confidence 

3. halve：v. （使）减半 to reduce by a half; to make sth reduce by a half 

The latest mobility figures show precisely how fragile consumer confidence can be. People in American hotspot states, such as Arizona, Florida and Nevada, where the virus is surging, seem to have become more cautious (see right-hand panel of chart 2). A high-frequency measure of American credit-card spending maintained by JPMorgan Chase, a bank, stopped growing around June 21st—and a closely watched measure of weekly retail sales has barely increased since May. More ominously, high-frequency measures of the labour market suggest that employment in small businesses is once again declining. The risk of relapse is not confined to America. A huge drop in Australian restaurant diners in early July coincided with a large coronavirus outbreak in Victoria. Until the virus is stamped out, only one thing can be said about the recovery with certainty: it will be shape-shifting.

最新移动数据精准地表明了消费者信心有多么脆弱。在美国疫情严重的热点地区，例如亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、内华达州，人们似乎已变得更为谨慎。摩根大通银行维护的美国信用卡消费情况高频测量显示6月21日左右停止增长，备受关注的每周零售额数据自五月开始增长停滞。更不祥的是，劳动市场高频测量显示，小型企业的就业率再次下降。重蹈覆辙的风险不仅局限于美国。7月初，澳大利亚餐厅就餐人数骤减，与维多利亚新冠病毒突然大面积爆发同时发生。在病毒被消灭前，关于复苏只有一件事可以肯定：它将会是可变的。

注：

1. ominous：adj. 预兆的；恶兆的；不吉利的 suggesting that sth bad is going to happen in the future

2. relapse：n. 旧病复发 the fact of becoming ill/sick again after making an improvement 

3. stamp out：杜绝 If you stamp something out, you put an end to it. 

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Alex，女，小研究员一枚，经济学人粉丝

Chao，男，爱读书思考的DPhil Candidate，TE粉丝

Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

首先让我们来看看失业率，以美国的失业率为代表：美国在四月的时候失业率接近了15%。这个历史的高点意味着严峻的债务问题。然而，美联储利用打印钞票和经济援助的方式去去解决了部分债务的堆积。而从4月起到6月，失业率大幅下降。如果没有工作了，自然就没有了消费。没有钱要怎么消费？

谈到了失业，必然会谈到倒闭。疫情影响下很多企业都关门了。我们看下一些有代表性的。Whitening Petroleum (7.6 Billion estimated asset) 在4月1日的时候提出了重组公司。

Diamond Offshore Drilling和其他几家与原油挂钩的公司也陆陆续续的出现了资金链中断。CBD产业在早期被重创。实体的零售业如J.C. Penney也难逃一劫。而在这期间，虽然航空公司拿到了大量的政府补助，但这依然不能拯救所有的航空公司。

五月末，Latam和Hert也都出现了资金问题，难以独立运营。这两家的体量尤其巨大。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“加入TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

经济学人商业 || TAMP会取代BAT吗？

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491043&idx=1&sn=655cab2d74486509415a5ec45eee8275&chksm=fba04e44ccd7c752c6f88bd0d7b467ead4bcf307f5c74054084e1918839b4161019cc5d8fdf3#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

E-shopping frenzy

网购狂潮

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期Business版块

Online business

在线业务

E-shopping frenzy

网购狂潮

Investors are besotted with digital China. Two booming internet firms show why

投资人痴迷于中国的数字经济。两家蓬勃发展的互联网公司（美团和拼多多）给出了原因。

CHINA’S BUSTLING digital economy has spawned thousands of startups. Yet in the eyes of many it remains “BAT or bust ”, to cite a saying among jobseekers from the country’s elite universities. The BAT in question refers to the original trio of Chinese internet stars: Baidu, a search engine; Alibaba, an online emporium; and Tencent, a mobile-payments and video-game titan. The acronym is overdue an update.

中国数字经济蓬勃发展，催生出成千上万初创公司。但在许多人眼中，现状仍是“非BAT不看”，这也是中国顶尖大学毕业的求职者常说的一句话。所谓BAT，即中国互联网初期的三巨头：搜索引擎百度、电商平台阿里巴巴、移动支付及视频游戏巨头腾讯。现在，这个缩写早该换个说法了。

注：
Or bust：used to say that you will do everything possible to get somewhere

Alibaba and Tencent continue to lord it over digital China. With market capitalisations of nearly $700bn apiece, they are the world’s seventh- and eighth-biggest listed companies, respectively. Having struggled to adapt as consumers moved from desktops to smartphones, Baidu languishes in 319th place; its erstwhile equals can gain or lose the equivalent of its entire market value of $45bn in a day or two.

阿里和腾讯继续称霸中国的数字经济。两家公司市值均接近7000亿美元，位列全球第七、第八大上市公司。而百度难以适应消费者从桌面端转向移动端的趋势，排名已落后到第319位，市值450亿美元。昔日的两大竞争对手一两天内的涨跌幅度就相当于其全部身家。

The BAT label also belies another development. Newer arrivals have been busily remodelling the upper reaches of China’s cyberscape. They include firms like JD.com, a $100bn e-merchant listed in New York, Didi Chuxing, a privately held ride-hailing giant valued at $60bn or so, and the $100bn-plus ByteDance, the world’s biggest unlisted startup (which owns, among other things, TikTok, a short-video app popular with Western teenagers).

BAT的标签也掩盖了另一趋势：后来居上的企业一直忙于重塑中国互联网发展上游。这些公司包括已于纽约上市、市值达到一千亿美元的电商公司京东，未上市但估值约600亿美元的网约车平台滴滴出行，还有全球最大的非上市初创公司字节跳动（旗下业务广阔，例如深受西方青少年喜爱的短视频应用TikTok），估值超出1000亿美元。

None has set investors’ pulses racing of late more than Meituan Dianping and Pinduoduo. The duo have much in common. Both began by matching shoppers with discounts (on spa and cinema tickets in Meituan’s case and products from apples to Apple iPads in Pinduoduo’s). Both went public in 2018—Meituan in Hong Kong and Pinduoduo in New York. And both have seen their share prices soar since the start of the year (see chart). They are now worth more than $100bn each. But their routes to these highs look quite different.

可论起近来最让投资者心跳加速的，当数美团点评和拼多多。两者共同点颇多。它们都从为消费者提供折扣产品（美团多是spa以及电影票等产品，拼多多则是提供从吃的苹果到用的苹果iPad等各类产品）。两者都在2018年上市——美团在香港上市，拼多多在纽约上市。自今年年初以来，两家公司的股价都在飙升。现在市值均超过1000亿美元。两家公司一路蒸蒸日上，发展道路却大相径庭。

Start with the bigger of the two, Meituan. It was founded in 2010 by Wang Xing, an engineering graduate from Beijing’s Tsinghua University, selling those discount vouchers. Like Tencent and Alibaba, it has expanded into other areas. In 2013 it launched a meal-delivery business and a travel arm that lets users book hotels and flights. Two years later it merged with Dianping, a restaurant-review and booking platform similar to Yelp. In 2018 it paid $2.7bn for Mobike, a bike-sharing service, and entered ride-hailing, which it expanded last year to dozens of Chinese cities. Today Meituan can be thought of as “a search engine for services”, says Elinor Leung of clsa, a broker.

先从规模更大的美团谈起。2010年，毕业于清华大学电子工程系的王兴创办了美团，专门售卖打折优惠券。与腾讯和阿里一样，美团也已经向其他各个领域进军。2013年公司推出外卖送餐业务以及酒店机票预订业务。两年后美团将其与大众点评合并，后者是一家餐厅点评和预订平台。2018年，美团斥资27亿美元收购了共享单车企业摩拜单车,并进入了网约车领域。去年，该公司已将该业务扩展到了数十家城市。里昂证券分析师梁向奕（Elinor Leung）认为如今的美团是“服务搜索引擎”。

Some of these, like food delivery or bike-sharing, are low-margin, high-volume businesses. In 2019 the firm earned a profit of less than three cents per delivery (chiefly from commissions it charges restaurants). But it makes an awful lot of them. The platform has 700,000-800,000 drivers at its disposal. Two in every three yuan that the Chinese spend on having grub dropped off at their doorstep goes through Meituan.

有些业务利润低但业务量却很大，譬如外卖送餐和共享单车。2019年，美团外卖每单的利润不到3美分（主要向餐馆收取），但业总量却大得惊人。该平台现在拥有七、八十万名骑手，其市场份额（营收）已经占到整个行业的三分之二。

Like Mobike (which is capital-intensive and still unprofitable), the food business lures users who can then be directed to more lucrative offerings such as travel. Meituan’s operating margins on hotel reservations hover between 20% and 35%. The pandemic briefly halted domestic bookings but by late May they had recovered to 70% of pre-coronavirus levels.

和（资本密集型且一直未获盈利的）摩拜单车一样，餐饮业务也会吸引大量客户，再进一步将其吸引到旅游等利润更高的服务上。美团的酒店预订方面的营业利润率一直维持在20%-35%之间。虽然新冠疫情一度使得国内预订业务陷入停滞，但截止五月下旬已恢复到疫情前70%的水平。

Pinduoduo has taken the opposite tack to Meituan. Rather than spread its bets, it has doubled down on e-commerce. Online retail is growing fast enough in China to justify not being “a jack of all trades”, says David Liu, in charge of strategy at the firm.

拼多多采取的策略与美团截然相反。与美团大肆扩张版图不同，拼多多埋头深耕电商领域。拼多多战略副总裁九鼎（David Liu）表示，目前，中国在线零售发展迅速，拼多多发展不缺良机，故而无需多管齐下，博而不精。

He has a point. Chinese e-commerce sales could expand by 16% this year, to 14.4trn yuan ($2trn), according to eMarketer, a research firm, even as total retail sales may dip by 4% to 35trn yuan as a consequence of lockdowns’ toll on bricks-and-mortar shops. Alibaba will capture perhaps half of this growth. Pinduoduo will slug it out with jd.com for the rest. Shoppers hit by the coronavirus slowdown may lean towards Pinduoduo’s bargains.

他的观点不无道理。 据研究公司eMarketer估计，尽管疫情封锁可能使实体店总零售额下降4％，跌至350亿元，但今年中国电商销售额仍有可能增长16％，达到14.4万亿元（两万亿美元）。其中阿里巴巴可能会占到一半。拼多多将和京东瓜分其余份额。新冠袭来，经济放缓，消费者可能倾向购买拼多多的便宜商品。

Central to the firm’s ascent is the concept of social shopping, which it describes as a fusion of Costco and Disneyland. Products are cheaper if you buy in bulk with fellow bargain-hunters. Users can join existing groups or invite pals using WeChat, a social-messaging app owned by Tencent (which holds a 16% stake in Pinduoduo). Merchants sacrifice margins in exchange for higher volumes.

拼多多崛起靠的是社交购物的概念，公司自称该理念是美国零售商好市多（Costoco）和迪士尼方式的融合。消费者想得优惠需要拼单买，商品就会更便宜。用户可以加入拼单或通过腾讯（持有拼多多16%股票）旗下的微信邀请朋友拼单。商家牺牲一部分利润以换取更大的交易量。

Colin Huang, Pinduoduo’s founder, who once worked as an engineer at Google in America, did not invent group shopping; Groupon has been doing a version of it since 2008. But he did develop the idea, for instance introducing games which reward players with credits on future purchases.

拼多多创始人黄峥曾在美国谷歌工作，团购并非他首创。美国电商网站高朋（Groupon）早在2008年就开始实行这一理念，但黄峥将该理念发扬光大。比如，拼多多引入了游戏，玩家可赢得用于日后购物积分。

注：

被“玩坏”了的拼多多：一文看懂拼多多是怎样把游戏化运营做到极致的
http://www.aldzs.com/viewpointarticle?id=10863

Chinese shoppers love it. At the end of March 628m of them had made at least one purchase on the app in the preceding 12 months, 42% more than the year before and 60% more than shopped on jd.com; only Alibaba has more active users (726m). Their average annual spending also rose, from 1,250 yuan to over 1,800 yuan. So has Pinduoduo’s share of Chinese e-commerce—from 2% in 2017 to 10% last year. Bernstein, a research firm, expects it to be 18% by 2024, in line with jd.com.

中国的消费者很吃这一套。截止3月底，有6.28亿人在过去的12个月里在拼多多上至少消费过一次，较上年同比增长42％，消费人数比京东高60％。只有阿里巴巴的活跃用户量高于拼多多，达到7.26亿。拼多多用户的人均年度消费额也从1250元上升到1800多元。拼多多在中国电商中的份额也从2017年的2％增至去年的10％。研究公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）预计，到2024年拼多多的市场占比将达到18％，与京东齐平。

The shopping frenzy has boosted Pinduoduo’s revenues by 44% year on year in the first quarter, to 6.5bn yuan. The money comes from transaction fees and adverts bought by merchants to have their offers promoted in the app. Similarly to eBay but not many e-commerce giants, Pinduoduo does not hold inventory or operate its own logistics network, relying on merchants to ferry products to buyers. Instead, it burns a spectacular, and growing, amount of cash on sales and marketing: 112% of revenues in the first quarter.

这场网购狂潮促使拼多多第一季度营收同比增长44%，达到65亿元。这些收入来自交易费以及商家的广告费（在软件上推广他们的商品）。拼多多就像美国的易趣网（eBay），但跟大多数电商巨头有所不同，它不涉及仓储，不自办物流网络，只靠专门的物流公司把商品运送给消费者。拼多多在销售和市场方面的投入越来越惊人，达到第一季度营业收入的112%。

Mr Liu insists these costs can easily be dialled back. Experience of other marketplaces suggests otherwise. Uber, which also matches sellers (drivers) with buyers (riders), has been perpetually loss-making. Like Uber, Pinduoduo enjoys some  “network effects” –the more buyers use its app, the more sellers it draws, who in turn attract new buyers, and so on. But, again as in ride-hailing, buyers and sellers face few costs in switching to another app that offers a better deal. Jd.com and Alibaba have already launched Pinduoduo clones to their vast user base.

拼多多战略副总裁九鼎坚信，这些费用可以轻松收回。但其他市场经验表明情况恰恰相反。优步（Uber）同样对接商家（司机）和顾客（乘客），却一直在亏损。与优步一样，拼多多也受益于“网络效应”，即顾客越多，商家也会越多，反过来又会吸引新顾客，以此类推。但是，这就会像网约车平台一样，顾客和商家可以容易地更换到另一家更优惠的平台，而不必损失多少成本。京东和阿里巴巴已经为庞大用户群体提供了类似拼多多模式的服务。

The market is giving Pinduoduo the benefit of the doubt. The pandemic appears to have done it no harm; cooped-up Chinese consumers have turned to the firm for necessities and, sometimes, a dose of retail therapy. With negligible business outside China, it is, like Meituan, shielded from the Sino-American tech war making life difficult for TikTok, with its mostly non-Chinese users, or Huawei, China’s telecoms champion. White House threats to expel Chinese firms from American exchanges have not dampened investors’ enthusiasm. Nor has the sudden departure of Mr Huang, who stepped down as its chief executive on July 1st and cut his stake in the company from 43% to 29% (he remains chairman and holds 81% of voting rights).

现在的市场姑且还相信拼多多。新冠并未对其造成影响。憋闷已久的中国消费者已转向于购买生活必需品，偶尔也来次购物疗法。拼多多和美团一样，海外业务寥寥无几，因此躲过了中美技术战。但严重依赖海外用户的TikTok以及中国电信巨头华为就步履维艰了。美国政府威胁要让中国企业退出美国交易所，但这并未削减投资者的热情。7月1日，黄峥突然卸任总裁，股权从43%减至29%（他留任董事长，持有81%投票权），此事也未对投资者造成任何影响。

注：

1. the benefit of the doubt（无罪推定）: the state of accepting something/someone as honest or deserving of trust even though there are doubts

2.拼多多创始人黄峥宣布：卸任总裁并捐百亿，他也想学马云退休吗？
 https://www.sohu.com/a/405683898_490881

Meituan’s path to riches is clearer. It ended last year in the black for the first time. Its profitable food and travel arms have been gaining market share from rivals (such as Ele.me, Alibaba’s food-delivery app, and Ctrip, China’s biggest travel agency). That gives its loss-making divisions financial breathing room.

美团的崛起之路现在越发明朗。去年，美团首次实现盈利。外卖送餐和旅游业务一直在抢占对手（阿里巴巴旗下的饿了么和中国最大的旅行软件携程网）市场份额，为美团亏损的业务赢得了财务上的喘息之机。

Ultimately, both firms embody the excitement over digital China’s bright prospects. But TAMP will only become the new BAT if both firms can match Tencent’s and Alibaba’s consistently fat profits. 

总而言之，美团和拼多多都代表了时下市场对中国数字经济光明未来的兴奋之情。但只有当两家公司都能像腾讯和阿里巴巴一样，持续保持丰厚盈利，TAMP才会取代BAT，形成四足鼎立的新局面。

翻译组：

Yao， 男， 不想做翻译的翻译学硕士

Megan, 女，外企民工，好想一身都是月

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Angela, 女， Northwestern 本科在读，double major 数学哲学业

校对组：

Clark，一笔，汽车公关行业

Humi，女，CATer，Catti二笔
Monica，女，MTIer,死不悔改的理想主义者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Zoey，女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工

今年的拼多多已经超越京东成为中国第二大最有价值的电商（仅次于阿里巴巴）。作为“社交电商”的典范，拼多多通过“团购”模式（购买某一产品的人越多，价格就越低），依托微信平台、低成本地拓展用户（用户通过微信访问拼多多并付款），抢先占领“下沉市场” – 其55%的利润来自于不太富裕但服务不足的三线以下地区。我本人不怎么用拼多多，但我知道拼多多对于父母那辈对价格敏感的用户，吸引力还是很大的（即便我爸在拼多多买到假狗粮害得我家狗子拉稀，也没有削减我爸妈对拼多多的热情）。

相对于另两大电商巨头阿里巴巴和京东，拼多多的收入来源其实更窄。其80%的收入都来源于从平台上的广告 – 类似于Facebook向特定用户定向投放广告。虽然阿里巴巴和京东的大部分收入也的确来自电子商务，但作为早期巨头，它们还有其他新兴业务（比如云计算）。

当然，其他巨头也意识到了下沉市场的机遇，所以新的竞争又来了。阿里巴巴近期推出了淘宝特价版APP，专注于C2M模式(customer-to-manufacturer，用户可以直接与制造商互动)。4月20日，京东旗下的“京喜”宣布采取C2M模式面向下沉市场。现在这两家巨头都在积极与工厂建立关系。这方面，阿里巴巴可能更具优势，因为其本身就有面向商家的平台“阿里巴巴”（我本人除了用淘宝也会用阿里巴巴，冬天直接找新疆的厂家给一家人买羊绒毛衣比淘宝同样的货能便宜两三百，屡试不爽），阿里巴巴的云计算业务也可能会在数字能力方面为工厂提供更多利益。另外，京东和阿里巴巴都拥有强大的物流能力（菜鸟裹裹和京东物流），拼多多可能相对缺乏这样的后勤能力。来自巨头的挑战应该也会对拼多多和其他电商平台造成压力。

虽然今年上半年（尤其第一季度）疫情对非必需品零售和进出口贸易打击巨大，但电商（包括跨境电商）的表现都十分亮眼。新的岗位“直播”出现了（虽然很可能这一行业会跟娱乐圈一样，光鲜的人只有小部分），快手、抖音这些社交平台也开始进军电商（快手今年计划投30亿在成都落户直播电商基地，并开始与京东合作；抖音也在布局自己的电商小店）。受全球疫情影响及其他社会因素，原来立足香港的奢侈品品牌（实体店大批关闭）为了更好地服务（赚）内地（的钱），也开始降低姿态进军电商和考虑移步受政策青睐的海南。跨境电商（包括国家现在拓展跨境电商试验区和零售进口实验城市，提升中欧班列及国家国际货运能力）应该也能在一带一路计划和中美贸易冲突的背景下一定程度影响国际贸易布局。叽里呱啦说了好多，不知道互联网的赛道后续如何，但对普通消费者、国家拉动内需总归是好事。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“加入TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

Clark，一笔，汽车公关行

94年上海PLMM相亲啦，赶紧来看看！

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491043&idx=2&sn=09906e4db62cd4b40b32978c393ef1f1&chksm=fba04e44ccd7c7522ef3dd88b2c4021f7c9785ea38a4f5346f4de738f5a51b862055e54553c0#rd

01

写在前面

相亲是一种常态，哈哈哈，没什么大不了

后台很多小伙伴私信小编想相亲，但是有些担忧，比如怕遇到熟人朋友，比如怕遇到人渣，比如怕被喷。那小编今天就来给您答疑解惑下。

1.熟人朋友问题，大家都是成年人了，这点勇气都没有吗？？何况概率应该还是很小的吧，哈哈哈，当然您也可以选择不放照片，这在一定程度上避免这个问题。

2. 人渣问题，这个也不必担心，有意向的小哥哥或者小姐姐都会发相应资料给小编审核，如果是硕士博士毕业，有车有房，必须把自己的学位证、车子、房子的相关证件发给小编，当然除此之外，大家自己也要擦亮眼睛。

3. 怕被喷的问题，后台留言只有小编一个人能看到，平台的小伙伴都是相对比较了解我们公众号的，从往期历史来说，只有极个别这样的人，而且即使真的碰到喷的，小编也不会放出来的，所以你大可不必担心，你需要做的只是keep real，把自己的真实需求写出来即可。

有意向相亲的优秀小哥哥小姐姐赶紧私信小编396196827，相亲广告不收费，但成功牵手后，公众号将收取2000元介绍费，未成功牵手之前的收费都是耍流氓，哈哈哈，感觉离大别野又进了一步。

PS: 我们负责售后，如果交往后发现是渣男渣女，及时联系小编，平台也进行曝光，所以请渣男渣女自重远离，没有反馈的相亲平台都是耍流氓。

02

今日女嘉宾

1. 个人介绍：

女，94年，身高169，家住上海，985硕士毕业，从事教育行业。曾在新西兰待过一年，乐于接受新鲜事物。喜欢听欧美民谣，爵士。亦静亦动，活泼起来快乐得像个小孩，安静的时候喜欢一个人逛集市，做小手工。父亲是老师，母亲是护士‍。

2. 朋友眼中的我：

科技控，做事执行力强，长相有些混血…

3. 理想的另一半：

上海户口，学历本科以上，94年以前出生，身体健康，工作稳定（且不经常出差），最好上海有房，学历和家庭背景相近，有责任心。

4. 不喜欢：

感情不专一，有不良嗜好，懒惰，对未来无规划，不愿意分享、相互倾听的人。

请有缘人赶紧私信小编吧！

---End---

经济学人商业 || 温和的财政退出机制

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491030&idx=1&sn=3340432f9214d5492f2878c4562cd017&chksm=fba04e71ccd7c767944ac77ca99a6d86c9cd70fdc863316a8eb0d70b5dac498296b7b3b94284#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

April，女，金融小白崽，边追经济学人边追星

Leaders组长华哥的B站解读

（每期都有，大家重点关注）

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV12v411i7m6

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Tapering without the tantrum

温和的财政退出机制

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期Business版块

The world economy

世界经济

Tapering without the tantrum

温和的财政退出机制

A guide to when and how to pare back stimulus

刺激政策的退出时机及方式解读

As they first battled the pandemic with lockdowns earlier this year, governments in the rich world pumped cash into the economy almost indiscriminately. Output was collapsing and the speed and scale of support rightly trumped any worries about its cost, accuracy or side-effects. Now lockdowns are easing, there are tentative signs of economic recovery (even in places where covid-19 is still raging) and political debate has shifted to whether, when, and how far to pare back these dauntingly expensive emergency fiscal policies. America’s unemployment top-up scheme expires on July 31st, Britain’s furlough scheme at the end of October. What should governments do?

今年早些时候，在发达国家为遏制疫情而启动封锁政策之时，他们便几乎不加权衡地向经济注入了大量资金。当时，经济产出暴跌，而政府补助的效率和规模则恰逢其时地打消了人们对其成本、准确性和副作用的担忧。如今，封锁逐步解除，即便是在新冠肺炎仍在肆虐的地区，经济复苏的迹象也已初步显现，政治辩题也转向是否应当削减这些费用惊人的紧急财政政策，何时削减？削减多少？美国的失业补助计划将于7月31日终止，英国的休假计划也将于10月底截止。各国政府究竟该如何做？

注：Pare back/down: to gradually reduce the size or amount逐步减小（体积或数量）

They should start by acknowledging that the largesse worked. Massive fiscal support has proved remarkably effective. Nothing could have prevented a sudden stop in activity as lockdowns were imposed. But generous top-ups to unemployment benefits and direct cheques from Uncle Sam meant that in April household incomes in America were 12% above their level a year earlier, even as joblessness reached its highest level since the Depression. Remarkably, the poverty rate has fallen since the start of this year. In Britain and the euro area, where governments have channelled stimulus through furlough schemes, the share of people in unemployment is no higher than in January.

政府首先应当承认，大规模财政支持是有效的。事实证明，它的确成效显著。随着各地实行封锁政策，各项活动被迫戛然而止。不过，美国政府大规模发放失业救济金及现金支票，因此，即使失业率创大萧条后新高，四月份美国人的家庭收入仍比去年同期高出12%。万幸的是，贫困率从今年年初起就开始下降。在英国及欧元区，政府通过休假计划刺激经济，其失业率较一月份相比并未上升。

注：Largess: the act or quality of being generous with money慷慨解囊；施舍；赠款

However, the recovery is fragile. Not only is the virus still spreading rapidly in much of America’s south and west; localised outbreaks are also happening in countries where caseloads have fallen. And even without full lockdowns, rising infection rates will weaken the recovery. The latest real-time mobility data from Australia and America suggest that supposedly gung-ho consumers get spooked fast when infection rates spike .

然而，这种复苏是脆弱的。疫情不仅仍在美国南部和西部的大部分地区迅速蔓延，就连病例数下降的国家也出现了局部爆发。即便没有全面封锁，不断上升的感染率也会削弱复苏趋势。澳大利亚和美国的实时流动性数据表明，感染率飙升时，本来狂热的消费者也会突然恐慌。

注：Gung-ho: too enthusiastic about sth, without thinking seriously about it, especially about fighting and war偏激的，狂热的，莽撞的

Why not just continue the stimulus? One reason is the staggering cost. Rich-country governments have collectively launched stimulus programmes worth 10% of gdp, with one-third of that either subsidising work or compensating people who lose it. Before the year is out, government deficits in these countries will easily be in double digits.

将刺激计划进行到底又有何不可呢？首先，成本太高。富裕国家政府推出的刺激计划合计占其GDP的10%，其中三分之一要么用于补贴在职员工，要么用于失业救济。长此以往，不到年底，这些政府的赤字率将飙升至10%以上。

It also makes no sense to freeze the economy for too long. All the signs are that life in the 2020s will be different from life in 2019—think of the surge in e-commerce and remote working; or the expectation of a long-term dampening of demand for air travel; or the reality that customers in pubs may no longer be allowed to elbow their way through crowds to order pints. Workers will have to leave their old jobs, and find new ones. In Europe a fifth of furloughed workers have jobs in industries that seem likely to shrink over time, such as hospitality and leisure.

一直给经济按暂停键也不合理。种种迹象都表明，接下来10年的日子将和2019大不相同——电商的欣欣向荣和远程工作的普及可见一斑；预计航空业将长期面临需求不振的情况；可能再也见不到酒吧人头攒动的景象了。大量员工将被迫离职找新工作。欧洲五分之一被放无薪假的员工都在看起来日渐式微的行业工作，比如酒店业和休闲业。

As governments grapple with this, lots of bad ideas are creeping in. In June the French government said it would extend its furlough scheme to two years, in return for reductions in working hours. France also makes extra allowances for the tourism trade, even though Parisian guides and Club Med windsurfing instructors may face a permanent drop in demand. Meanwhile on July 8th Britain’s chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said he would cut value-added taxes for hospitality and leisure firms and introduce a scheme that cuts up to £10 ($12.60) off restaurant bills on Mondays to Wednesdays (soft drinks are included, but not the hard stuff). Some economists have called for wage subsidies for the worst-hit industries.

各国政府纷纷寻求出路，在这一过程中，涌现了不少馊主意。今年6月，法国政府表示将把就业支持计划延长两年，并相应减少工作时长。法国还为旅游业提供额外津贴，尽管今后人们对巴黎导游和地中海俱乐部帆板教练的旺盛需求将一去不复返。与此同时，英国财长苏纳克表示，他将削减酒店和休闲行业的增值税，并引入一项餐饮折扣计划——周一到周三去餐厅消费，最高可免单10英镑（12.60美元）（软饮在内，酒精除外）。还有一些经济学家呼吁为在疫情中受打击最重的行业提供工资补贴。

Instead of giveaways and gimmicks, the right way to taper depends on the type of support already in place. America has funnelled cash to people through unemployment insurance, extending the duration of benefits, and topping up their amount by $600 a week. Letting the extension lapse when unemployment still exceeds 10% would be cruel, yet because the support is so generous, three-quarters of claimants are making more from benefits than they did from work. The solution, as a group of former White House advisers has proposed, is to taper benefit payments as unemployment falls. Linking the generosity of payments to states’ unemployment rates would steer stimulus to worst-hit areas—including those that experience fresh bouts of covid-19. In Europe the risk is that employers and workers are frozen in an unproductive relationship for too long. The best approach is to taper furlough payments which, for example, cover more than four-fifths of wages in France. They would then converge towards unemployment insurance, which does not shackle the claimant to an employer. That is how Germany’s Kurzarbeit scheme operates in normal times.

要达成财政退出机制，关键取决于现有的补助形式，而不是送消费者附赠品这样的花招。美国通过失业救济金给人们现金补助：延长失业救济金的期限，并每周增加600美金额度。在失业率超过10%的情况下，缩短补助金期限的做法肯定是不人道的，但补助似乎过于慷慨，以至于四分之三的补助金申领人拿到的补助比工资都多。白宫的官员们曾提出解决方案，即随着失业率的降低而减少补助的输出。失业率高的情况下，政府如此慷慨，这让那些受打击最重的行业受益——包括那些正经历新一轮疫情的行业。在欧洲，令人头疼的情况是雇主和员工们长期绑定在没有生产效率的关系之中。解决这个问题最好的方法就是减少过高的休假补助，比如在法国，休假补助了总薪资的五分之四。这样一来，雇员们会倾向于申领失业保险，而失业保险不会将雇员和雇主捆绑在一起。这就是德国的缩短工时（ Kurzarbei）方案的运作原理。

There will be repeated flare-ups of the virus, and it is hard to predict how much that will scare consumers. Hence, even as governments trim stimulus, they must stand prepared to crank up support again. Early on, their aim was simply to throw cash at the economy. Now it is to use finite resources to help workers and firms through the pandemic and adjust to a brave new world.

未来疫情将有重复、再发的可能，很难预料消费者对疫情的恐惧会延迟多久。因此，政府减少经济刺激措施时，要做好随时增加补助的准备。疫情早期，政府补贴的目的只是想让经济回稳。现在，政府的任务是用有限的资源来帮助员工和公司渡过疫情难关，并帮助他们适应一个崭新的世界。

注：A brave new world: a situation or society that changes in a way that is eant to improve people’s lives but is often a source of extra problems美好的新世界（本欲改善人们的生活，实则带来预料不到的问题）

翻译组：

Miranda，女，翻译在读，爱哭又爱笑的00后
Jessie, 女 ，旅游业转行口译，喜欢教书与读书

Cecilia，女，一口一笔，无可救药的乐观主义者

业

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Rex，男，口译硕士，集书狂魔，经学钢粉

Sylvia，女，爱健身的小翻译，经济学人粉儿

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Vincent 男，狱警，电子与法学双硕，爱好诗歌与哲学

在特殊时期进行财政刺激，待形势稍有缓和后再相机减少之并耐心等待和调整。直觉理应如此，解决问题的方法是消灭它，问题不成为问题，就解决了。只是，过程未必能如直觉般优雅和简单。如何解决问题，视乎你怎样选择，是这样吗？这样说的基础是人有自由选择的意志与能力。但如果人根本没有自由选择呢？如果无可选择。就像人可以选择如何死，人不可以选择不死，这是不是选择呢？生存，到来，开启，知觉，等等，人有选择吗？而种种没有选择之物，成为人的偶像，成为人虚幻的希望。

众生之多数如我等处世难免徒务外观，如村媪涂抹脂粉以饰衰容。当然这仍可能是好的，比如哪怕为了貌似君子而为人当善。政治（人生）成功的三宝无非是：通盘分析后的长期战略观；认真分析暧昧不清而且相抵触的纷杂外力，并引入一致的目标；最大可能弥合现实与理想之间的差距。只是，世界是一种既自行开启又自行克制，既显又隐的发生，而思想又必得超出日常经验的范围而进入意义和根据的层面。放下一切固有的先入之见，在殚精竭虑以求一解之前。是不是我们总以为我们有选择，后来想来，却从来没有选择？

离诸妄执之艰难，回返现实中来。好处是，问题历来是智识的因由，与反复凭经验解决老问题相比，新问题的出现与求解都困难的多，也“珍贵”的多。人无时不在摸着石头过河，并时时刻刻，与所执告别。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“加入TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发公众号翻译文章到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

点击下方图片进行小程序打卡

Clark，一笔，汽车公关行业

本周翻译预告（写作天团仅剩最后两席）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491024&idx=1&sn=1cb035cb273024c572d9f4243ae5ffc9&chksm=fba04e77ccd7c76156aadde1f23c7c1e9f515bc5a39c0a49b7ff49c7b4be4020e006224599d6#rd

01

关于写作天团

昨天发了一篇写作天团招募贴，加小编的人特别多，但是符合要求（雅思总分以及写作单项都是8分以上）的却寥寥无几，今天继续招募，还剩两个名额，希望有兴趣的小伙伴赶紧私信小编（VX:396196827)哈，为了大别野，冲鸭！

02

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | Tapering without the tantrum

https://www.economist.com/node/21789071?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | E-shopping frenzy

 https://www.economist.com/node/21789118?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | How to feel better

https://www.economist.com/node/21789101?frsc=dg%7Ce

4. The Economist | How illuminating

https://www.economist.com/node/21789060?frsc=dg%7Ce

5. The Economist | Perchance to dream

https://www.economist.com/node/21789046?frsc=dg%7Ce

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

写作天团招人啦！！

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491018&idx=1&sn=03a1b0e38e83bc5f8b20607446725a03&chksm=fba04e6dccd7c77bfe4280cea9eea1acf07a930d4e3ebcf172058eb297f292c9d15717c6e280#rd

小编考虑了很久，大概有几个小时吧，就下定决心组建一个写作天团，旨在打磨一套提高大家写作能力的教程，最终对外营业，赚大钱，买大别野（哈哈哈，梦想总是要有的，万一实现了呢），故寻觅写作单项8分以上且雅思总分8分以上的小伙伴5枚，加分项有丰富的教学经验，或者表现力强等等，如果你满足条件，那就赶紧联系小编吧（VX:396196827），机不可失，失不再来，为了大别野，冲鸭！！

---End---

经济学人科技 || 葡萄根瘤蚜

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491007&idx=1&sn=b89090b4ee0972dab297bbb8614f9cc4&chksm=fba04e18ccd7c70e9add7729419d6b6f94ac0436856901ba8179ec08b188782b1e7e69662490#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿～

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

 The root of the problem

问题的根源

英文部分选自经济学人20200704期文艺版块

Phylloxera

葡萄根瘤蚜

The root of the problem

问题的根源

A pest’s genome reveals its past and shines light on how to deal with it in future

害虫基因组不仅能揭示它的过去，还为未来的虫害防治指明了方向

A century and a half ago an alien insect alighted in Europe. It displaced millions, ruined local economies and forced scientists, politicians and ordinary folk into a frenzy of defensive activity. Phylloxera, a member of the group known to entomologists as Hemiptera, or “true” bugs (as opposed to all the other critters known colloquially as bugs), appeared in France in the 1860s and proceeded to eat its way through many of the Old World’s vines.

一个半世纪以前，一种外来昆虫入侵欧洲。它的到来让数百万人流离失所，当地经济受到破坏，也迫使科学家、政治家和普通民众展开了一场疯狂的防虫行动。这种昆虫名为葡萄根瘤蚜，是昆虫学家已知的半翅类昆虫的一种，它是“真害虫”，（与其他所有俗称的虫子完全不同）。19世纪60年代，这种虫子曾在法国出现，接着啃遍了“旧世界”（老牌葡萄种植地区）地区的许多葡萄藤。

It then spread to pastures new. It was first recorded in Australia in 1875 and in South Africa in 1886, threatening similar devastation to the vineyards of those European colonies. Eventually, French and American scientists found a solution by grafting European vines onto the imported roots of American ones. Now, a more recent group of French and American researchers report in BMC Biology that they have sequenced phylloxera’s genome, and that hidden within this lie clues to the insect’s origins and spread.

紧接着，它们扩散到新晋的葡萄酒产地。1875年澳大利亚首次记录了它的出现，然后1886入侵南非，在这些欧洲殖民地，它们对葡萄园的破坏程度堪比之前。最终，法国和美国的科学家找到一个解决办法：将欧洲的葡萄藤嫁接到从美洲引进的葡萄藤根部。现在，新一批的法国和美国研究者在《BMC生物》发表报告称，他们已经发现葡萄根瘤的基因序列，而该信息则包含着着关于该虫的起源和传播的线索。

Nineteenth-century agronomists rapidly divined that phylloxera had come from North America. That fact provided the rationale behind their graft-based answer to the problem—which is still all that stands between cultivated vines and the bug. This is that having co-evolved with the insect, American vines had developed resistance to it. But where exactly it came from on that continent, nobody knew. One theory held British gardeners responsible because they had brought wild American vines to Europe for decorative purposes. From Britain, this theory went, phylloxera reached the European mainland via the south of France, the first place where it devastated vineyards. That, though, turns out to be a calumny against les Anglais.

19世纪，农学家们很快发现，葡萄根瘤蚜来自北美。这一事实为他们采用嫁接的方法来抵御虫害提供了论据，而嫁接法依然是防止葡萄藤遭受根瘤蚜侵害的唯一方法。美洲葡萄藤与根瘤蚜共同进化，从而对根瘤蚜产生抵抗力。但是这种虫子究竟起源于北美大陆的具体什么地方？这一点无人知晓。有理论认为，这要归咎于英国园丁，他们曾将野生的美洲葡萄藤带回欧洲做装饰，就这样葡萄根瘤蚜从英国途经南法传到欧洲大陆，而南法是葡萄园首次受到根瘤蚜侵害的地方。不过这种理论其实是在污蔑英国人。

Bugs in the system

系统漏洞

By comparing the genetic sequence of European phylloxera with those of populations from wild vines in the United States, Claude Rispe and Fabrice Legeai of the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment (INRAE) and their colleagues have narrowed the search to the once-French territory of the Mississippi Valley (the upper Mississippi, to be precise—though one of the paper’s authors, Paul Nabity of the University of California, Riverside, plans to keep following the river south, sampling phylloxera as he goes, so the matter is not closed). The evidence is that there is a striking similarity between the European sequence and that of two phylloxera populations on a wild vine called Vitis riparia in Wisconsin and Illinois. This is enough, Dr Nabity says, to indicate that V. riparia was the bug’s original host and the upper Midwest its source.

通过比较欧洲葡萄根瘤蚜和美国野生葡萄藤根瘤蚜的基因序列，法国国立农业、食品和环境研究所（INRAE）的克劳德•李斯佩（Claude Rispe）和法布里斯•勒杰艾（Fabrice Legeai）团队将搜索范围缩小到前法属密西西比河谷地区（准确地说，是密西西比河上游。不过其中一位作者：加州大学河湾分校的保罗•纳比蒂（Paul Nabity），计划继续沿河南下，一路采集蚜虫样本，所以文章的观点尚未有定论）。有证据表明，在威斯康星以及伊利诺伊的野生河岸葡萄（Vitis riparia）种群中，发现了两个与欧洲葡萄根瘤蚜基因序列高度相似的葡萄根瘤蚜群落。纳比蒂博士认为，这一证据足以表明，野生河岸葡萄是葡萄根瘤蚜的原始宿主，根瘤蚜最早源于美国中西部的北部地区。

图片内容：绿色区域为1750年时的法国领地。在伊利诺伊和威斯康星（两处红点位置），发现了祖代葡萄根瘤蚜群落。深蓝色线条代表密西西比河

If correct, says François Delmotte, who works at INRAE’s campus in Bordeaux and is one of the project’s leaders, the finding fits with certain historical facts. Though the Mississippi valley was annexed from France by Britain and Spain in the mid-18th century, and passed eventually to the United States, many French settlers remained in the area and France retained trading links, particularly with New Orleans, for a long time. Dr Delmotte says it would not be surprising if, in the 19th-century age of steamships and naturalists, phylloxera survived on cuttings of V. riparia stored in a cool, dry hold to be brought to a botanical garden in France. Or, even more ironically, that it was imported with vines destined to cure their French cousins of an earlier imported blight—powdery mildew.

INRAE波尔多分院的弗朗索瓦•戴尔莫特（Francois Delmotte）是该项目的带头人之一，他认为如果上述结论为真，那某些史实就能说得通了。18世纪中叶，英国和西班牙从法国手里夺走了密西西比河谷流域，最后这一区域成为了美国的一部分。尽管如此，河谷地区仍有许多法国籍居民，而且法国和整片河谷地区，尤其是和新奥尔良，有长期的贸易往来。戴尔莫特博士称，在蒸汽船兴起和博物学家遍布的19世纪，葡萄根瘤蚜通过存储在干燥凉爽容器中的河岸葡萄植株被带回法国的植物园，并存活下来，这也并不是什么稀奇的事。或者，更具讽刺意味的是，这些葡萄根瘤蚜注定要与葡萄藤一同引进法国，用于应对法国的葡萄植株面临的由更早期生物入侵而带来的灾难——白粉病。

注：

白粉病（powdery mildew），一种由白粉菌（Erysiphe necator）引起的植物疾病，症状表现为叶片正反两面均布满白色或灰色的斑点，并蔓延至藤茎部。该疾病会导致作物减产、品质下降、藤茎生长受阻和耐寒能力下降。白粉菌为一种真菌，靠播撒孢子繁殖。改善通风和适当降低空气湿度有助于预防白粉病，而治疗该病可采用喷洒抗真菌剂、喷洒稀释后的苏打水等方法。

The genetic diversity of European phylloxera is limited compared with that of its North American counterpart, says Dr Rispe. That points to there having been only one or two introductions, with subsequent diffusion of the pest by people and their agricultural machines. However, another of the paper’s authors, Astrid Forneck of the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna, says it remains a possibility that a separate introduction infested eastern Europe, perhaps via the Austro-Hungarian empire’s experimental vineyards at Klosterneuburg.

李斯佩（Rispe）博士指出，欧洲根瘤蚜的基因多样性不如北美根瘤蚜。这表明这种害虫只被引入过一两种，随后通过人类活动及农业机器（的应用）扩散开来。但该论文的另一位作者，维也纳自然资源与生命科学大学的阿斯特丽德•弗奈克（Astrid Forneck）提出，东欧的虫害也有可能另起源于奥匈帝国克洛斯特新堡的实验葡萄园。

In America phylloxera attacks wild vines’ leaves. It stimulates them to create galls in which it can live and feed, but which, from the plant’s point of view, serve to isolate the problem. When it attacks cultivated vines, though, it goes for the roots. These root galls open a plant to infection by bacteria and fungi, leading to its death. For a long time, researchers hunted for a single molecule, produced by the insect, that stimulated the growth of galls. Blocking the action of this, they hoped, would phylloxera-proof all vines. But here the sequencing project produced a disappointment. There is no such molecule. The researchers identified many genes—2,300 of them, more than a tenth of the insect’s genome—that encode proteins which it secretes while feeding on the vine. These enable it to evade the plant’s immune system while diverting resources from its host.

美洲大陆上，根瘤蚜攻击野生葡萄藤蔓的叶子，刺激藤蔓产生自己可以赖以生存和进食的虫瘿。但从植物的角度来说，这也可以帮助隔离虫害。但在人工栽培的葡萄藤中，根瘤蚜攻击的则是根部。根部产生的虫瘿会使植物受到细菌和真菌的感染，导致其死亡。长久以来，科研者在寻找由根瘤蚜产生能促进虫瘿形成的单分子，他们希望通过阻断这一成分，使葡萄藤蔓免受根瘤蚜虫的侵害。但这一次的基因测序研究让他们大失所望：这样的单分子并不存在。研究人员识别了高达2300个基因（这超过了根瘤蚜全基因的十分之一），这些基因会在根瘤蚜寄宿葡萄藤蔓时产生蛋白质，而这些（蛋白质）使得根瘤蚜能够避开植物的免疫系统，将资源转移出去。

The gall of it

虫瘿

The work now begins of teasing out what each of those genes does, and, ultimately, how phylloxera manipulates a plant and adapts to a new host. This information may in turn generate new weapons against the creature. That could be valuable in parts of viticulture’s New World, such as Australia, where vines remain ungrafted and phylloxera is still a problem. It might also help if the insect ever evolves the ability to evade the natural resistance of American vine roots that currently stands between European growers and disaster. For Dr Forneck, this prospect is not outlandish. The insect is already adapting to a warmer world, and shifting its range. Further shifts in its physiology are perfectly possible.

现在的工作是要梳理出每个基因的作用，并最终弄清楚根瘤蚜是如何控制植物并适应新宿主的。这些信息可以用来研发抵御该虫害的新武器，而这对葡萄种植的“新世界”地区（新兴的葡萄种植地区）是十分重要的。比如在澳大利亚，葡萄藤蔓尚未嫁接，而根瘤蚜也依旧是个问题。如果根瘤蚜通过进化，能够避开美洲葡萄藤蔓根部对它的天然抵抗力，这些信息也许亦能帮助通过嫁接法抵抗虫害的欧洲种植者。对于弗奈克（Forneck）博士来说，这一假设并非空穴来风。根瘤蚜已经适应变暖的环境，并改变了自己的活动范围，因此进一步产生生理上的转变是完全可能的。

翻译组：

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

Nikolai，爱想象的小双鱼，蒙特雷候补生，AKB49
Echo，北漂北外的江南人，央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿
Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系

校核组：

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译
Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者

Helen，女，坐标武汉，职业翻译，翻硕已毕业英语二笔二口，爱好陶笛洞箫古诗词

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Lecea, 坚信“腹有诗书气自华”的追梦girl

病虫害一直以来都是种植业的老大难问题，自古以来，防治病虫害的方法无非就那么几种：物理防治、生物防治、化学防治等等。

物理防治和生物防治基本不会造成土壤以及作物污染，但成本周期太长且不适合大范围推广。化学防治见效快，但作物抗药性、化学残留以及土壤污染都是大问题。因此，这些都是治标不治本的权宜之计。

我国自古以来就是农业大国，农作物的安危关系着十几亿人口的粮食问题，因此科学家们也是兢兢业业，这不前段时间中科院的农学博士还因为常年呆在地里与作物为伍被当成教育孩子的反面教材。

虽说我国已实现粮食自给，但离实现绿色农业仍然道阻且长。目前的农业发展很大程度上仍然是依赖于大型农机具、化肥、农药的“黑色”农业。但与此同时，我们也应该看到要扭转这种态势，最终还是要靠科学的进一步发展。文章中提到的基因研究也不是什么新技术了，近年来关于基因工程也是争议不断。虽说现目前基因工程不太成熟，但在农业领域，通过基因研究了解害虫的前世今生，然后对症下药，从源头上解决问题，实现病虫害的高效防治，找到一种既不污染土壤和作物，还能一劳永逸的方法。

有人说农业文明的绿色发展是低技术的绿色发展，工业文明的发展是“黑色发展”，但借助于日新月异的科学技术，实现农业文明的高科技绿色发展指日可待。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人财经 || 券商牌照如箭在弦，中国金融业迎来新一轮改革

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490991&idx=1&sn=eba8d5005f96a537d71bd0ebd4a63a89&chksm=fba04e08ccd7c71ec9735d1102013daa2b9a76caf4d03bd39c64ba03fd22a34bcc5d1431bdfd#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Chinese banking

中国银行业

英文部分选自经济学人20200704期Finance版块

Chinese banking

中国银行业

China may let banks launch brokerages to fend off foreign marauders

中国或将允许商业银行获取券商牌照以抗衡外资券商

China put its first domestically built aircraft-carrier into service last December, the culmination of three decades of work. The government hopes for a faster return on efforts to create what it calls an “aircraft-carrier-class securities firm”—ie, an investment bank powerful enough to prevail amid intensifying competition in the country’s capital markets. It is poised to draft its biggest financial force into battle, by allowing giant state-owned commercial banks to enter investment banking.

去年12月，中国第一艘国产航母“山东舰”开始服役，这是三十载工作结晶的巅峰。同样的，政府希望通过打造所谓的“航母级头部券商”（即在中国资本市场竞争加剧的情况下，一家实力雄厚到仍能所向披靡的投资银行）以更快地获得回报。中国正蓄势待发欲让大型国有商业银行进入投行业务，聚集其最强金融力量投入战斗。

注：

1.culmination n.顶点，高潮；

2.Be poised to:信誓旦旦；随时准备着做；

延伸阅读：中国首艘国产航母“山东舰”服役，挑战美国海上地位

https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20191218/china-aircraft-carrier/

证监会：积极推动打造航母级头部证券公司

http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2019-11/30/c_1125291539.htm

China has long had its own version of America’s Glass-Steagall separations, which until 1999 barred retail banks from investment banking. China’s commercial banks can neither underwrite stocks nor offer brokerage services, which are left to securities firms—a division that officials believe makes the financial system safer. But now they may grant securities licences to two commercial banks in a trial, as first reported by Caixin, a business publication.

长期以来，中国一直有自己的《格拉斯—斯蒂格尔法案》版本，该法案起源于美国，在1999年以前美国禁止商业银行参与投行业务。同样的，中国的商业银行此前既不能承销股票，也不能提供经纪服务，因而这些服务空间都留给了证券公司。政府认为这可使金融体系更安全。但是，商业出版物《财新周刊》最先报道了，中国可能选出2家商业银行授予券商牌照进行试点。

注：

1.《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》（Glass-Steagall Act）

格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案（Glass-Steagall Act），是一部对美国银行系统进行改革的法律，描述了1933年银行法分离商业银行和投资银行业务的四个规定，美国联邦存款保险公司是依此法成立。这部法律的目的在于对投机采取一些控制措施。禁止银行控股公司拥有其它金融公司的规定被1999年11月12日生效的金融服务法现代化法案取消。1999年被取消的规定，实际上取消了承担风险的投资银行与接受存储的商业银行的隔离，使得投资银行家可以成为商业银行的上司，因此造成利益冲突。

https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E6%A0%BC%E6%8B%89%E6%96%AF-%E6%96%AF%E8%92%82%E6%A0%BC%E5%B0%94%E6%B3%95%E6%A1%88

The immediate prompt is foreign competition. After years of dragging its feet, China scrapped foreign-ownership limits in its securities sector last year. Big Western players—such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UBS—have either gained control of existing joint ventures or launched wholly-owned operations. Foreign firms have struggled to make a dent in commercial banking in China, held back by their limited branch networks. In investment banking, though, they may be more formidable, thanks to their technical knowhow.

直接刺激来源于外资竞争。多年来一拖再拖，中国于去年取消了证券领域的外资持股限制。西方巨头，如花旗集团、摩根士丹利和瑞银集团，要么取得了现有合资公司的控股权，要么成立了全资子公司。囿于有限的分支网，外资银行在中国的商业银行业务方面一直举步维艰。但是他们在投资银行业务方面的专业技术更有优势更有主动权。

注：

1.drag one's feet   v. postpone doing what one should be doing 拖拉；拖着脚走；不合作

eg. The government was dragging its feet, and this was threatening moves toward peace.

政府一拖再拖，这是有碍和平的行径。

2.scrap 及物动词 If you scrap something, you get rid of it or cancel it. 取消; 放弃

eg. President Hussein called on all countries in the Middle East to scrap nuclear or chemical weapons.

侯赛因总统呼吁中东各国放弃核武器或化学武器。

3.Citigroup 花旗集团，是美国第一家集商业银行、投资银行、保险、共同基金、证券交易等诸多金融服务业务于一身的金融集团。

4.UBS 瑞银 abbr. 瑞士联合银行（United Bank of Switzerland）

5.make a dent in v. 削弱；取得有效进展

eg. The economy needs to grow by at least 5% per year to make a dent in high unemployment and poverty levels.

要降低较高的失业率和贫困率，该国的年增长率至少要达到5%。

Even without the foreign threat, China has been eager to whip its brokers into shape. Officials want capital markets to lessen the burden on banks, which last year provided two-thirds of all new credit. The ten biggest Chinese banks have roughly 30 times more assets than the ten biggest securities firms, and are also far more profitable (see chart). The securities industry’s main problem is extreme fragmentation; 131 registered firms providing similar services fight for clients by slashing fees. Some even underwrite bonds for nothing.

即便没有来自外资的威胁，中国也一直急于鞭策国内券商。政府希望资本市场可以减轻银行的负担，银行占去年新增信贷的三分之二。中国十大银行的资产总额大概是其十大证券公司的30多倍，并且盈利更为丰厚(见图表)。证券业的主要问题在于极度分散，有131家注册证券公司提供类似服务，不得不通过大幅削减佣金费用来争夺客户。一些公司甚至免费承销债券。

注：

1.whip sth into shape 训练，强使成形，严格管教

eg. Fortunately, you've got the organizational skills to whip them into shape.

幸运的是，你所掌握的有组织的技能能使它们初具雏形。

2.slash 及物动词 To slash something such as costs or jobs means to reduce them by a large amount. 大幅度削减

eg. Car makers could be forced to slash prices.

汽车制造商可能会被迫大幅度降价。

3.underwrite bonds 承销债券，是指投资银行接受客户的委托，按照客户的要求将债券销售到机构投资者和社会公众投资者手中，实现客户筹措资金的目的的行为或过程。对发行人来说就是债券发行，即发行人以借贷资金为目的，依照法律规定的程序向投资人要约发行代表一定债权和兑付条件的债券的法律行为。

Change is unlikely to be revolutionary at first. “It is not China’s way to suddenly implement a new policy and wipe out existing companies,” says Chen Jiahe of Novem Arcae Technologies, a wealth-management firm. Investors agree: the share prices of China’s largest brokers fell by about 5% on June 29th, when the news first broke, but have since recovered.

不太可能一开始就进行大刀阔斧的改革。财富管理公司九圜青泉科技（Arcae Technologies）陈嘉禾表示：“突然实施新政，扫清现有公司，并非中国一贯作风”。投资者们也表达了同样的情绪，6月29号消息一出，中国龙头券商股均下跌约5%，但此后一直在回升（已经暴涨）。

Still, the securities industry could look very different in time. The government wants to see consolidation. Granting banks brokerage licences may squeeze out the also-rans. Consider, for example, medium-term notes, a quasi-bond market in which commercial banks can already participate: of the top 20 underwriters by income, 17 are banks and just three are brokers.

不过，证券业的变革迟早会到来。政府希望看到行业整合。发放银行券商牌照，可能会将现有的落后者挤出市场。以中期票据为例，即商业银行已获许可的准债券市场。在收入排名前20位的承销商中，只有三家是券商。

注：

quasi:准，(构成形容词和名词)表示“类似的”，“准”，“半”  is used to form adjectives and nouns that describe something as being in many ways like something else, without actually being that thing.

also-ran:落选者，失败者

A common criticism of universal banking is that it combines two irreconcilable cultures, with the boldness of investment bankers potentially swamping the prudence of commercial bankers. Yet China has shown that there are also dangers to separation. The stockmarket crashed in 2015 after the securities regulator failed to rein in a boom in margin financing by brokers, a risk that the bank regulator might have been better equipped to detect.

对全能银行的一种常见批评是，它兼有两种不可调和的文化，投行人的大胆可能吞噬商业银行家的谨慎。然而，中国已表明分业经营也存在危险。2015年，由于证券监管机构未能遏止券商杠杆融资交易的激增，股市崩盘，而银行监管机构本应做好更充分的准备，察觉这一风险。

注：

1. Universal banking: A system of banking where banks are allowed to provide a variety of services to their customers. In universal banking, banks are not limited to just loans, checking and savings accounts, and other similar activities, but are allowed to offer investment services as well. 全能银行（Universal Banking）源于德国，本是德国银行业的分类概念，但在现代金融里其含义已经超出了统计概念的范畴。全能银行是一种银行类型，它不仅经营银行业务，而且还经营证券、保险、金融衍生业务以及其他新兴金融业务，有的还能持有非金融企业的股权。

2. irreconcilable：If two things such as opinions or proposals are irreconcilable, they are so different from each other that it is not possible to believe or have both of them. 不可协调的

3. swamp：If you are swamped by things or people, you have more of them than you can deal with. 使疲于应对，使不堪承受

4. rein in：To rein in something means to control it. 控制

5. margin financing: 融资交易，也叫保证金融资交易，是指客户将账户内的证券质押给证券公司，以向证券公司借入更多的资金来买入股票的行为。

In any case, it is hard to imagine China’s lumbering banks becoming red-in-tooth-and-claw brokers. The biggest, such as icbc, already operate investment banks in Hong Kong, primarily offering plain-vanilla services to state-owned firms. More aggressive mid-tier lenders could outdo them in marketing shares and structuring deals. They are still huge by global standards: China Merchants Bank, for example, has a market capitalisation of $120bn, nearly twice that of Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street institution. In Chinese terms, it would count as a naval cruiser—one step down in size from an aircraft-carrier, but still a big step up from the ragtag flotilla in the country’s capital markets today.

无论如何，难以想象如果中国lumbering（你懂的）的银行变成野蛮霸道的券商。银行巨头（如工行）早已在香港开设投资银行，主要为国有企业提供标准化服务。更加激进的中间梯队银行有机会在营销市场份额和安排交易方面超过它们。以全球标准来衡量，这些中间银行仍然非常庞大。例如，招商银行的市值1200亿美元，是华尔街机构高盛的近两倍；按中国标准，在当今的资本市场上，它相当于海军巡洋舰——距航母级还差一步，但相比那些散乱的“小舰队”，它仍迈进了一大步。

注：

1. lumbering：笨拙的，行动迟缓的。

2. red in tooth and claw：残酷无情、血淋淋、决不宽容。

3. plain-vanilla：普通的，最简单的，标准化的。vanilla在西班牙语里是用于給食物调味的）香子蘭精，香草精，在西班牙，冰淇淋的原味就是香草味。因此，用vanilla来形容金融产品和服务的时候，就是指最普通的，标准化产品。例如，Vanilla Option，香草期权，就是一笔最普通的期权业务，或者说标准的期权合约。

4. naval cruiser：海军巡洋舰

5. aircraft-carrier：航空母舰

6. ragtag：杂乱的，乌合之众

7. flotilla：小型船队，小舰队

翻译组：

Martina，女，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济

Jerry，男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝

Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

校对组：

Chloe，女，翻译硕士，经济学人忠实读者

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

上周开始A股逐渐进入向上通道，周五券商股全线大涨停，这周一券商股再次涨停连带整个A股涨幅5.27%，周三券商再度大涨。在四个交易日里，券商股集中上涨了30%。

我觉得其实券商股涨得很没有道理。有关券商的消息是关于证监会拟重提向商业银行放开券商拍照，或将从几大商业银行中选取至少两家试点设立券商。混业经营的猜想再次浮出水面。

银行和券商的体量不在一个量级上，无论从资产规模，还是净利润等指标来看。另外债券市场基本也是银行一家独大，主要的债券交易市场还是银行间市场，其中主要的交易者也基本是银行。可以想见，一旦银行获准进券商，将会对证券业产生很大的冲击，业内会有将其比作“大象踩蚂蚁”的说法。从后见之明的角度来看，券商股作为每一次牛市的领头羊都会率先领涨，因为在中国牛市开启散户跑步进场，经纪业务收入可以大幅提升。而且从银行获准进入保险、信托、基金后的经营能力来看，银行系还是始终无法摆脱靠借贷来做业务的思维方式。

从美国的经验来看，大萧条之后国外为了稳定金融业出台了《格拉斯斯蒂格尔法案》，禁止商业银行和证券机构跨越彼此从事的业务领域，也正是这项法案的出台让当时富可敌国的J.P.摩根不得不把投行业务部门剥离出银行体系，这个投行部门后来成为了Morgan Stanley；一直到1999年，克林顿政府开启金融自由化，《金融现代化服务》通过，美国分业经营结束；2008年金融危机后，史上最严的《多德-弗兰克法案》，即著名的沃克尔规则出台，限制大中型银行从事自营交易、投资对冲和私募基金，剥离衍生品交易。

从美国的经验来看，无论你给它一个什么名字都好：混业经营，金融自由化，金融服务现代化，往往危机容易在其中滋生。原因在于一家金融机构一旦可以同时从事银行存贷款业务和证券投行业务后会有大量利益冲突，且往往难以监管。对于传统银行业务的监管方式一般是要求更高资本金率、准备金率，而证券业务则更加强调信息披露、勤勉尽责受托人业务，监管手段完全不同。同时，2008年的美国金融危机揭示了当时的金融机构存在严重的利益冲突，可能存款人甲刚刚存了1亿的存单，隔壁的自营业务部门销售看到了就赶紧把你拉去另一个楼层向你推销现在的房地产ABS的收益率有多么多么高，经过精细的不同资产池的组合，我们的quant显著降低了风险但是收益率还是可以维持不变，还告诉你美国的房地产70年来从来没有跌过。然后雷曼兄弟倒了。

再转向中国金融行业。其实当前中国的金融行业基本上实现了混业经营，几年来多家中资银行相继在香港设立控股子公司，银行系的“X银国际”相继成立，各大行的曲线混业打法盛行。此外还有中国银行和国开行早年以国务院特批的方式控股券商，中银国际证券和国开证券从净资产规模来看分属38、30，和头部券商还有差距。且受制于监管规则，这两家银行系券商和母行也还是分业经营，内部协同没有打通。

混业经营的另一个隐患是会加剧监管套利。在过去分业经营的30年里，监管套利一直是让监管机构头疼又始终无法彻底解决的老大难问题，银行体系始终没有办法将风控体系、收益率曲线落地，导致了信贷投放严重向国有企业倾斜，因为市场上另一半的民企存在信贷需求，于是证券时常和信托公司一起通道化，变成了影子银行，而保险更像银行和风投。在分业经营下，监管套利如此顽强不息春风吹又生，混业经营恐怕蕴藏着巨大的金融隐患。

以上的推演都是从长期来看的，期限可能在10年甚至20年之后，混业经营导致银行内部的资产管理投资/自营投资出现重大风险事件后，银行的主导性地位将会使整个金融市场受到传染。但是目前来看，随着A股的投机情绪高涨和宏观货币条件持续宽松，投资者可以尽情享受股票资产的持续增值。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人商业 || 航空公司与气候

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490982&idx=1&sn=606489548df634b2a44f41949c0c6528&chksm=fba04e01ccd7c71769e4543c454ac45306673d727ed186ca89cae537424ef9d040cc52c8ee19#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Monica，女，MTIer,死不悔改的理想主义者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Airlines and the climate

航空公司与气候

英文部分选自经济学人20200704期Business版块

Airlines and the climate

航空公司与气候变化

Setting a new CORSIA

设立新的《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》

注：CORSIA：the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation

https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/corsia/

A carbon-intensive industry defangs an already mostly toothless offset scheme2

碳密集型产业使已经式微的碳抵消计划走向末路

“The worst year in the history of aviation” is how the International Air Transport Association (IATA) describes 2020. The global airline-industry body expects carriers’ revenues to fall by half and debt to swell by $120bn to $550bn. To cut costs airlines have grounded planes and put staff on unpaid leave.

国际航空运输协会（IATA）表示，2020年将成为“航空业史上最糟糕的一年”。全球航空业组织（即IATA）预计，航空公司的收入会减半，债务将增加1200亿美元，达到5500亿美元。为了削减成本，航空公司已经采取飞机停飞以及员工无薪休假措施。

Another slashed expense is that of climate action. Aviation emits 3% of man-made carbon dioxide. That share could rise to 5-9% by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency, a forecaster. To curb these emissions, in 2013 the European Union tried to add international aviation to its emissions-trading programme, including flights connecting EU airports to those outside the bloc. The industry cried foul. In a compromise the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), an agency of the UN, devised the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. CORSIA, as it is known for short, is due to start next year. It compels airlines to buy offsets for any additional CO2 produced by international flights above a baseline.

另一项大力削减的开支与气候行动相关。航空业碳排放占人类制造碳排放总量的3%。根据国际能源署（IEA）的预测，到2050年这一比重会增至5%-9%。2013年，为减排，欧盟试图将国际航空业纳入欧洲碳排放交易计划，包括来往于欧盟内外机场的航班。但航空业对此做法怨声载道。联合国下属的国际民用航空组织（ICAO）退让一步，做出妥协，设立了《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》，简称即众所周知的CORSIA，将在明年生效。该计划迫使航空公司补偿超过基准的国际航班产生的任何额外的二氧化碳排放

注：

Cry foul： to complain that sb else has done sth wrong or unfair 

That baseline has become hotly contested. It was originally set at the industry’s average emissions for 2019 and 2020. Now emissions are forecast to fall by 37% this year, which would mean a lower baseline and so, in time, higher offsetting costs. So IATA proposed using just emissions from just 2019 instead. On June 30th ICAO’s 36-member council agreed, at least for CORSIA’s first three years (see chart).

这个排放基准线饱受争议。起初，CORSIA基准线的计算是基于2019年和2020年的平均排放量。目前预计今年排放量会减少37%，这同时意味着更低的基准线和更高的碳排放开支。因此，国际航空运输协会（IATA）提议仅使用2019的排放量为基准。6月30日，由36个理事国组成的国际民航组织理事会同意，至少在《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》实施的前三年仍以2019的排放量为基准。

注：国际民航组织理事会鉴于疫情影同意对CORSIA进行保障性调整：http://www.tanjiaoyi.com/article-31540-1.html

Environmental groups are up in arms. The scheme already lacked bite, since it is voluntary until 2027 and does not include domestic flights, about a third of the industry’s emissions. Countries representing three-quarters of aviation’s carbon footprint have signed up but flights between those which have opted in and those which have not are excluded. Dan Rutherford of the International Council on Clean Transportation, an ngo, calculates that on pre-pandemic trends the original plan would have covered only 9% of aviation emissions from 2021 to 2035 (when the scheme is scheduled to end).

然而，这一决定遭到了环境保护组织的极力反对。因为该计划在2027年前都是非强制性计划，并没有包含航空业碳排放三分之一的境内航班，所以CORSIA本身就缺乏说服力。产生碳足迹四分之三的国家选择签署该计划，但选择加入该计划的国家和未加入该计划的国家之间的航班被排除在外。被排除在外。根据非政府组织——国际洁净运输理事会丹·卢瑟福（Dan Rutherford）计算，按照疫情前的趋势，从2021到2035（该计划完全落幕）原计划仅会覆盖9%的航空排放。

注：

Up in arms： angry and ready to fight or argue

In fact, the two-year average was expressly designed to account for low-emission years，a lesson learned from an early attempt to set the baseline in 2010, which was thwarted by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, an Icelandic volcano which grounded flights in Europe.

实际上，取两年碳排放平均值是特意为了考虑到低排放量年份，这是从2010年早期基准线设计中得出的经验，那一年因为冰岛火山Eyjafjallajökull喷发而导致了欧洲境内飞行受阻。

Another complaint is that many of the offsets airlines can buy are ineffective. A report in November last year by the NewClimate Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute, two think-tanks, found that 80% of corsia’s potential offsets are unlikely to have any additional benefit to the climate. Since then ICAO has, to its credit, limited the availability of junk offsets in the scheme, though green campaigners say it has not gone far enough.

另一抱怨是很多航空公司可购买的碳抵消没有效用。智库新气候机构和斯德哥尔摩环境研究所，在去年十一月发现80% CORSIA计划中售卖的碳抵消都不太可能对气候有任何益处。值得赞扬的是，即使一些环保运动参与者认为该计划力度远远不够，在那之后ICAO限制了计划中无用碳抵消，。

Offsets’ bargain prices also suggest something is amiss. In 2018 the average price in the “voluntary market” (outside of mandated schemes) was $3 per tonne of CO2, about a sixth of the carbon price in the eu emissions-trading scheme. Last year EasyJet, a British low-cost carrier, announced plans to offset all its annual emissions. This will cost it a footling $32m. New offest projects created in anticipation of corsia boosted supply, which is expected to be four times higher than demand.

抵消公司的廉价价格也表明有些地方出了问题。 2018年，“自愿市场”（强制性计划之外）每吨二氧化碳均价为3美元，仅为欧盟排放交易体系中碳价的1/6。去年，英国低成本航空公司易捷航空（EasyJet）宣布计划抵消全年排放量仅需微不足道的3200万美元。CORSIA建立的碳补偿新计划会增加供给，预计比需求高出四倍。

Industry executives claim that the original baseline would have imposed crippling costs. That seems overblown. Sparse coverage and the cheap offsets mean the cost to the industry is low. Assuming an offset price of $5 per tonne of CO2, Mr Rutherford estimates the change in the baseline will save airlines $350m a year. That is less than 1% of the forecast operating cashflow in 2021 for a panel of 37 listed airlines.

航空业高管声称，原先的基准线会增加巨大的成本，这似乎有些言过其实。星星点点的覆盖范围和廉价的抵消价格意味航空业只承受微薄成本。假设每吨二氧化碳的抵消价格为5美元的话，卢瑟福先生估计基准线的变化每年将为航空公司节省3.5亿美元。这比37家上市航空公司预测的2021年运营所需现金流的1％都少。

Forgoing those savings would have been a small price to pay for burnishing airlines’ reputations as they seek billions in government bail-outs. Accusations of greenwashing will make calls to attach potentially much costlier green strings to the rescue packages grow louder. 

在他们向政府申请数十亿款项纾困之际，放弃这些蝇头小利来赚取好名声，不失为不错的买卖。漂绿的指责使得要求援助拨款附上高昂的环保条款的呼声越来越高。

翻译组：

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝
Megan, 女，外企民工，好想一身都是月
Angela, 女， Northwestern 本科在读，double major 数学哲学

业

校对组：

Humi，女，CATer，Catti二笔

Elle，女， 靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆
Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

几乎每次看到有关碳排放的文章时，我的脑海里就会想起柴静采访丁仲礼的那段视频，那段视频里的内容我就不赘述了，但至少柴静的屁股是坐哪儿的已经一清二楚了。我当然不会去说谁好谁不好，但是如果一定要有一点点客观地看待这个问题，丁的话其实也只是站在了自己国家的利益角度，这无可厚非，因为按照他的这个理论，印度、印尼和巴基斯坦就更加有一肚子委屈了，所以讨论碳排放的分配问题，无非就是个国家强弱排名的问题，我们之所以现在会面临很多国际问题，归根结底就是我们强了，忍不了过去一直在忍的东西了，但表面上我们还是无法很赤裸裸地表达这个观点，我们也缺乏一些对我们有利的科学理论依据或者世界上大部分国家认可的价值观，所以在这段复杂的过渡期，冲突和矛盾是在所难免的，当然结果也是不确定的，即便综合国力上成了第一，要把我们的价值体系输出到世界各地，被他们认可，这又需要花费更多的时间和精力，需要更多的属于我们的各种大家。当然这里还有需要新旧势力的博弈，也有可能最终果实被第三者摘得，谁知道呢。

这个问题太大，我也没这个水平“说三道四”一番，但直觉是现在网上的部分观点还是太极端了，动不动就是干到新德里，干4v，一副不服就是干的架势，估计大概率是个真的要让他上前线了立马就缩头的主。我浅薄的认知中，战争的痛苦是巨大和深远的，而且具体到参与的某一个家庭而言，那就是几乎百分百的惨剧，无论结局是喜是悲，总会有若干的家庭支离破碎，老百姓颠沛流离，所以除非是到了万不得已，切莫因为一己私欲而让那么多人受苦受难，可能我的观念太仁慈了些，太软弱了些，不太符合这艘高速行进中的大船的价值取向。船虽然是金属制成的冷冰冰的庞然大物，但驭船者却总归是有血有肉有感情的人吧，他们不应该被这艘船裹挟了思想，不应该被这急速向前的动力冲昏了头脑，毕竟我们是人-是有爱、有感情的动物。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人社论 || 我们如今的生活方式

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490973&idx=1&sn=95882e760935858814e11df5ff2fd432&chksm=fba04e3accd7c72cc925e0cd321f12eb01b5ecc718126b5dff6a014fad326134cef2e3074ede#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The way we live now

我们如今的生活方式

英文部分选自经济学人20200704期Leaders版块

The pandemic

疫情大流行

The way we live now

我们如今的生活方式

Covid- 19 is yet to do its worst

新冠肺炎还未发展到最糟糕的时候

It is astonishing how rapidly the pandemic has spread, despite all the efforts to stop it. On February 1st, the day covid-19 first appeared on our front cover, the World Health Organisation counted 2,115 new cases. On June 28th its daily tally reached 190,000. That day as many new cases were notched up every 90 minutes as had been recorded in total by February 1st.

尽管人们采取了各种措施来阻止疫情蔓延，但其传播速度之快还是令人瞠目结舌。2月1日，新冠肺炎首次出现在本报的封面，世界卫生组织于当天统计出新增病例为2115例。6月28日，全球单日新增病例达19万例。相当于那天每90分钟的新增病例数与2月1日之前记录的总数一样多。

The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first. Some 10m people are known to have been infected. Pretty much everywhere has registered cases (Turkmenistan and North Korea have not, though, like Antarctica). For every country such as China and Vietnam, which seems to be able to contain the virus, there are more, in Latin America and South Asia, where it is raging. Others, including the United States, are at risk of losing control or, in much of Africa, in the early phase of their epidemic. Europe is somewhere in between.

世界并未经历第二波疫情，因为第一波从未结束。据悉，全球肺炎感染数字突破1000万大关。世界各地几乎都有确诊病例(不过，土库曼斯坦、朝鲜及南极洲至今尚未出现病例)。中国和越南等国家似乎能够控制住病毒了，而在拉丁美洲和南亚的很多国家，病毒仍在肆虐。包括美国在内的一些国家正面临失控的风险；而非洲的大部分地区正处于疫情的早期阶段；欧洲则介于两者之间。

The worst is to come. Based on research in 84 countries, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reckons that, for each recorded case, 12 go unrecorded and that for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes. Without a medical breakthrough, it says, the total number of cases will climb to 200m-600m by spring 2021. At that point, between 1.4m and 3.7m people will have died. Even then, well over 90% of the world’s population will still be vulnerable to infection—more if immunity turns out to be transient.

最坏的情况还在后头。基于对84个国家的研究，麻省理工大学的一个团队认为，每有一例病例记录在案，就有12例被遗漏；每统计两例新冠肺炎死亡病例，就有一例的死因被误判与新冠无关。该团队称，如果医学上没有突破，到2021年春季，病例总数将攀升至2亿至6亿。届时，将会有140万至370万人死去。即便如此，世界上将仍有超过90%的人口易受感染——如果免疫只是短时效的，情况会更糟。

The actual outcome depends on how societies manage the disease. Here the news is better. Epidemiologists understand how to stop covid-19. You catch it indoors, in crowds, when people raise their voices. The poor are vulnerable, as are the elderly and those with other conditions. You can contain the virus with three tactics: changes in behaviour; testing, tracing and isolation; and, if they fail, lockdowns. The worse a country is at testing—and many governments have failed to build enough capacity—the more it has to fall back on the other two. Good public health need not be expensive. Dharavi, a slum of 850,000 people in Mumbai, tamed an outbreak.

实际结果取决于社会如何应对这一疾病。一个好消息是，流行病学家们知道如何阻止新冠肺炎传播。在室内或在人群中，当人们提高嗓门的时候，你就可能感染。穷人、老人和有其他健康问题的人都是易感人群。国家可以通过三种策略遏制病毒：改变行为；检测、跟踪和隔离；如果前面这些未能奏效，封锁。一个国家在检测方面做得越糟糕（许多政府未能建立足够的检测能力），它就越需要依靠其他两种策略。良好的公共卫生不需要破费太多。达拉维是孟买一个拥有85万人口的贫民窟，控制住了疫情的爆发。

Treatments have improved, thanks to research and dealing with patients. Although mass vaccination is still months away at best , the first therapies are available. More is known about how to manage the disease—don’t rush to put people on respirators, do give them oxygen early. Better treatment helps explain why the share of hospital patients who went on to be admitted to intensive care fell in Britain from 12% at the end of March to 4% in mid to late May.

由于科学研究和临床经验的积累，治疗方法已经有所改进了。虽然大规模的疫苗接种至少也要等到数月之后，但现在初步的疗法是可行的。人们对如何控制该疾病有了更多的了解——不要急于上呼吸机，但要尽早给病人供氧。疗法的进步解释了为什么英国的病人进入重症监护的比例从3月底的12%下降到5月中下旬的4%。

And economies have adapted. They are still suffering, of course. J.P. Morgan, a bank, predicts that the peak-to-trough decline in the first half of the year in the 39 economies it follows will be around 10% of GDP. But workers stuck in Zoom hell have discovered that they can get a surprising amount done from home. In China Starbucks designed “contactless” ordering, cutting the time customers spend in its coffee shops. Supply chains that struggled now run smoothly. Factories have found ways to stagger shifts, shield staff behind plastic and change work patterns so that personal contact is minimised.

同时，经济也适应了目前的情况。当然，经济仍不景气。摩根大通银行预测，在今年上半年，它所关注的39个经济体的GDP从最高点到最低点的总跌幅将达到10%左右。尽管如此，在Zoom（注：一款线上会议软件）中苦苦挣扎的员工们惊喜地发现，他们在家里就能完成大量工作。在中国，星巴克设计了“无接触”配送，减少顾客在咖啡店里停留的时间。曾经陷入困境的供应链现在运行正常。工厂通过倒班、为员工提供隔断办公桌及改变工作模式等方式，尽量减少人员接触。

Now that nationwide lockdowns are done, governments can make sensible trade-offs—banning large indoor gatherings, say and allowing the reopening of schools and shops. Sometimes, as in some American states, they will loosen too much and have to reverse course. Others will learn from their mistakes.

既然全国性封锁已经结束，政府可以进行合理的取舍了，如禁止大型室内集会但允许学校和商店重新开放。就像美国部分州一样，有时政府会宽松过度，导致不得不重新收紧，而其他州会吸取它们的教训。

The problem is that, without a cure or a vaccine, containment depends on people learning to change their behaviour. After the initial covid-19 panic, many are becoming disenchanted and resistant. Masks help stop the disease, but in Europe and America some refuse to wear one because they see them as emasculating or, worse, Democratic. Thorough handwashing kills the virus, but who has not relapsed into bad old habits? Parties are dangerous but young people cooped up for months have developed a devil-may-care attitude. Most important, as the months drag on, people just need to earn some money. In the autumn, as life moves indoors, infections could soar.

问题在于，如果没有治疗方法或疫苗，病毒的遏制与否就取决于人们能否学会改变自身的行为习惯。早期的新冠恐慌褪去后，许多人逐渐好了伤疤忘了疼。口罩有助于阻挡病毒，但在欧美国家，一些人却不愿意佩戴。他们觉得戴口罩的人看起来弱不禁风，又或者Democratic（这后半句大家可以留言哈）。彻底地洗手也可以杀死病毒，然而随着疫情好转，谁又不是旧习难改呢？聚会有风险，但是被禁锢了数月的年轻人已经开始肆无忌惮了。最重要的是，数月过去了，人们需要赚钱。到了秋天，随着活动集中在室内，感染的数量可能会激增。

Changing social norms is hard. Just look at aids, known for decades to be prevented by safe sex and clean needles. Yet in 2018, 1.7m people were newly infected with hiv, the virus that causes it. Covid-19 is easier to talk about than aids, but harder to avoid. Wearing a mask is chiefly about protecting others; the young, fit and asymptomatic are being asked to follow tedious rules to shield the old and infirm.

改变社会规范很难，只需看看艾滋病就可知道这一点。数十年来，人们已经知道通过安全性行为、使用清洁针头即可预防艾滋病。然而，2018年依然新增了170万例艾滋病病例。新冠病毒没有艾滋病那么难以启齿，但却更难预防。戴口罩的主要功能在于保护他人，年轻、健康、无症状的人被要求遵循冗杂的规范，以保护年迈体弱的人不被感染。

Changing behaviour requires clear communication from trusted figures, national and local. But many people do not believe their politicians. In countries such as America, Iran, Britain, Russia and Brazil, which have the highest caseloads, presidents and prime ministers minimised the threat, vacillated, issued bad advice or seemed more interested in their own political fortunes than in their country—sometimes all at once.

改变行为习惯需要国家和地方层面有公信力的人士进行清晰的沟通传播，但是很多人并不信任他们国家的政客。譬如在美国、伊朗、英国、俄罗斯和巴西这些感染数最高的国家，总统和首相或优柔寡断，或轻视疫情带来的威胁，或发表负面建议，或是比起国家安危更看重自己的政治命运——有时这些问题同时出现在领导者身上。

Covid-19 is here for a while at least. The vulnerable will be afraid to go out and innovation will slow, creating a 90% economy that consistently fails to reach its potential. Many people will fall ill and some of them will die. You may have lost interest in the pandemic. It has not lost interest in you. 

新冠疫情至少还会持续一段时间。易感人群将不敢出门，创新速度将会放缓，引发的九成经济状态将无法持续发挥经济潜能。很多人将会感染病毒，其中一些人会死亡。你可能已经对这场大流行不感兴趣了，但它并未对你失去兴趣。

翻译组：

Carole，女，经济硕士，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

Melody，女，咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工，经济学人粉丝儿

 Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点

校对组：

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟

Hannah，女，英语教书匠，经济学人粉丝

Desmond，男，即将读研，悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

明天就要考试了，有时候我会想，假如疫情严重到一定的程度，是不是我们现在为之努力的一切都将毫无意义：我们将不会去学习文化课知识，生存技巧将取而代之；我们将短时间内不会去追求风花雪月（应该也不会去相亲了吧），我们只会更加珍惜眼前的一切，我们的父母，我们的子女；我们可能也会抛弃掉辛勤努力的工作，以及那烦人的房贷，携着家人奔向深山老林、人迹罕至之所。因为我们都会在了解处境后的一瞬间明白，活着的意义是什么。有一个很经典的游戏：假如今天是你人生的最后一天，你会干些啥？也许对于当下地球上某些角落的某些人而言，这个游戏不幸地变成了需要面对的现实，这就太可怕了：首先假设的条件变成了现实，更可怕的是你还必须认真地去做这个游戏，而且只有一条命的机会，就好像暗黑里的专家模式一般，我们当然不可能都是小说或者电影里的主角一般，任凭环境再艰险、敌人再狡猾，终能守得云开见月明，现实的可怕是只要走错一步，我们就会灰飞烟灭。有人会放弃抵抗（总有人会放弃抵抗），选择相信某一个神，神会带给他美好的来生，所以这辈子是指望不上了。虽然有些鄙视这种人，但是这个办法也算是一种无法被证实好坏的办法，除非你能从那头回来，但据我所知，从古至今应该没人回来过。大部分人还是会垂死挣扎的，这是刻在我们骨子里的反应，所以无论是什么形式的挣扎，我们都不应该去评判，毕竟生存的挣扎是最底线的行为，是大自然赋予我们的权利。

幸好我不需要去真正面对这些，至少短时间内不需要，我还是要面对明后天的考试，焦虑如何填报志愿，焦虑考不上理想的大学是不是又该复读一年，比起那些糟心事来，这些不是什么大事了。

很多时候我总在假设一些困局，却想让自己能够在不断假设的困局中成功突围，我总是期盼能够找到那个突围点，可能是依靠某些巧合，或者是上天的恩赐，但总是以较小的概率来实现，毕竟大概率成功的困难我还是不屑假设的吧，所以我总是在自寻烦恼、自找忧愁。我明明是个近视眼，却能看清楚远方的危险，臆想出潜伏在深处的魔鬼，而瞧不见眼前的危殆：新冠疫情即是如此。我总是在幻想工作以后如何应对办公室里或者上级领导的尔虞我诈，能在其间闲庭信步，挥洒自如，却忘记了眼下迫在眉睫的高考。我就像一只刚刚出生的小狗，眼中只有那在天上翱翔的老鹰，心中充满了与之决斗的惊险场景，却忘记了如何行走脚下的道路。

其实我没有任何能力去改变周遭的环境，好的也好差的也罢，都像是狗笼的铁柱一般，牙齿是咬不动的，我只能呆呆地趴着，等待着饭菜的到来，而不是流浪在外，过着饱一顿饥一顿的日子，对我而言，这到底是好事还是坏事？

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

本周翻译预告（今晚九点直播聊聊精读课那点事）

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490964&idx=1&sn=638ae89fc4c468285d826e2edacbcb8c&chksm=fba04e33ccd7c725548e81765561120df8e904c8f3646ec824beeb677339319a11f3d7a8f0e7#rd

01

关于精读课

上次小编在文中提到在写市面上精读课竞品分析，后台以及留言区收到了很多很多的反馈，其中有几条写的还挺好，小编把他们意义摘出来了，今天我们就来看一下：

关于精读课，小编认为绝大多数不值得上，小编会在晚上九点在B站直播间谈谈自己的看法，也欢迎大家来和小编一起交流，小编会提早在直播间等大家，八点半之前大家可以先唠唠嗑，具体地址：http://live.bilibili.com/22107839，也可以点击左下角阅读原文。

02

本周翻译预告

1. The Economist | The way we live now

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/04/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt?frsc=dg%7Ce

2. The Economist | Setting a new CORSIA

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/07/04/airlines-blame-covid-19-for-rowing-back-climate-commitments?frsc=dg%7Ce

3. The Economist | Chinese banking

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/04/as-foreign-banks-circle-china-plots-an-aircraft-carrier-defence

4. The Economist | The root of the problem

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/07/04/a-pests-genome-reveals-its-past

5. 1843| Hidden treasures

https://www.1843magazine.com/food/hidden-treasures

小打卡中已经更新文章word版本和音频，具体链接：

https://w.url.cn/s/AH7i0yl

---End---

你是什么？我是废物。

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490959&idx=1&sn=37cb60613acb0075567eecc74fd0a66e&chksm=fba04e28ccd7c73e291e045aa738d2145371899ed20f46381c0ae44885215f068453975a24d2#rd

首先给大家道个歉，

上周的小打卡三天没更，

没有其他原因，

就是不想更。

最近有点down，

觉得自己是个“废物”，

干啥啥跨，

如果你也是个"废物"，

或者曾经是

可以给小编留言。

大家一起做"废物"

哈哈哈

让喷子们来得猛烈些吧......

经济学人逝者 || 英国二战“战地甜心”薇拉·琳恩

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490945&idx=1&sn=568c52e8f917bf09f5a6fe1d94ca9ebc&chksm=fba04e26ccd7c7303c06fcae7ef482c311af39dffde9bc2ad88f295b439025a31713d115a568#rd

1

导读

二战“战地甜心”、英国传奇女歌手薇拉•琳恩

重要通知:

公众号粉丝中有相亲意向的小哥哥或者小姐姐，把相应资料私信小编（396196827）即可，包括房产证，学历等等，保证资料真实有效。

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Queen in all but name

无冕女王

英文部分选自经济学人20200627期逝者版块

Obituary: Vera Lynn

薇拉·琳恩

Queen in all but name

无冕女王

Dame Vera Lynn, singer and entertainer, died on June 18th, aged 103

歌手、艺人薇拉·琳恩女爵士于6月18日去世，享年103岁。

As soon as her pay for singing with the Bert Ambrose band was doubled in 1938, Vera Lynn bought herself a fur coat. She also got a green Austin 10 with a soft canvas top, and a three-bed semi for herself and her parents in Barking. There she could soak in her very own big bath and go to the lavatory indoors. But the coat was the first thing she bought. It cost ￡75. Every young girl in the 1930s wanted that sort of coat, of course. And she also felt she needed it, even deserved it, for what she was doing. When it settled heavily on her shoulders, she felt like royalty. 

1938年，薇拉·琳恩与伯特·安布罗斯乐队合作的唱酬刚翻一番，就立即为自己买了一件毛皮大衣。她还买了一辆软帆布棚顶的绿色奥斯汀10，还给自己和父母在柏京买了一栋三个卧室的半独立式住房，在那儿她可以躺在完全属于自己的大浴缸里泡澡、使用室内的盥洗室。但她首先买的是那件大衣，花了75磅。毫无疑问，30年代的每个女孩都想要那种大衣。而她也觉得自己需要一件，甚至说凭她所做的事情她值得拥有一件。当大衣沉甸甸地落在肩上时，她觉得自己像皇室成员。

She was always well aware of what she was worth. More than the 6/6d a week she got for sewing buttons in her first job; she left after a day. More than the ￡20 a week Ambrose paid her for being a “crooner”, so she let him know she could get good work as a non-crooning soloist elsewhere. More than the dismissive look some people gave her because she was toothy and gawky and, when she opened her mouth, talked Cockney—or at least East Ham, which was not the East End, really Essex. And she was worth a lot more, when she started recording, than being just the “vocal refrain” on the b-side of a sixpenny Woolworth’s record. Her ambitions were much bigger than that. 

她总是很清楚自己价值几何。超过她第一份缝扣子工作的六先令六便士周薪——这活儿她干了一天就不干了。高过安布罗斯为她的“低声哼唱”而支付的20磅周薪，于是她让他知道自己可以在别处得到很好的非低哼的独唱工作。她也配得上比一些人投来的鄙夷的目光更高的待遇：他们之所以这么对她是因为她有大板牙、看起来又呆呆的，并且当她开口说话时，蹦出来的是伦敦腔——或者说至少是东哈姆口音，东哈姆口音不是伦敦东区口音、而是埃塞克斯郡口音。当她开始录唱片时，她的价值远远胜过只给伍尔沃斯集团六便士唱片的B面曲唱“人声副歌”。她的野心远不止此。

And why not? Her voice was clear and strong, a deep contralto, once songs were pitched low enough to suit it. Her enunciation was crisp and bright. And she had a real nose for a good song. When she went along to Denmark Street to browse through the publishers’ sheet music, she could pick out a winner at once, by the words. She never could read music, but the tune was almost an afterthought. It was all about the feeling. If the lyrics had the right sentiment, were simple and from the heart, the song was right for her. She could believe in it then, and perform it with such complete sincerity that she moved her audience to tears. 

为什么不呢？她的声音清晰有力，一旦歌曲定调足够低，便是一副深沉的女低音。她咬字清脆明快。并且她也擅长辨识好的歌曲。当她前往丹麦街浏览出版商的活页乐谱时，她能够凭歌词，一下子找出最优者。她从来都不识谱，但曲调差不多也是后来才会去考虑的东西。一切都关乎感觉。如果歌词的情感对了、简单又发乎内心，那么这首歌就合适她。她就信任这首歌，并且用全部的真诚去演绎它，将听众感动得热泪盈眶。

注：

have a (good) nose for sth: to be naturally good at finding and recognizing something 天生擅长寻找（识别）某事物

So she proved during the second world war, when songs she’d found— “We’ll Meet Again”, “The White Cliffs of Dover”, “There’ll Always be an England”—had an extraordinary effect on Britain. Her voice, whether on scratchy 78s, crackling through a wireless or live in London halls with sirens wailing outside, became the bluebird of “White Cliffs” that flew hopefully above the horrors. On Sunday evenings listeners at home and abroad were glued to her “letter to the forces”, “Sincerely Yours”, as she played requests and relayed messages. She so raised the morale of both the home front and the boys abroad that she was sometimes jokingly credited with winning the war all by herself. And it secured her a status so lasting that 80 years later, in another crisis, Britain turned to her again, giving her a billing and an affection second only to the queen’s.

二战期间，薇拉·琳恩就显示出了这种鉴赏力——她挑出的歌曲《我们将会重逢》（We’ll Meet Again）、《多佛的白崖》（The White Cliffs of Dover）、《永远的英格兰》（There’ll Always be an England）深深地影响了当时的英国。她的歌声——无论是从带有沙沙声的78转唱片机中发出、还是在无线电收音机的噼啪杂声中响起、又或者是在警报尖啸下的伦敦音乐厅里现场演绎——变成了《白崖》里的蓝色知更鸟，带着希望飞来，驱走盘旋在众人头顶的恐惧。每逢周日晚上，海内外听众都全神贯注地听她主持的节目《给部队的信》和《谨致问候》，她在节目中播放点播歌曲、转达战时信息。她极大地鼓舞了国内前线和国外将士的士气，于是有时会被打趣地称赞她一个人打赢了这场战争。这为她赢得了持久的崇高地位，以至于80年后当英国陷入另一场危机时，人们再次向琳恩寻求帮助。她受到的咖位待遇和爱戴仅次于英国女王。

注：

1. scratchy: a scratchy voice or musical sound is rough and not smooth and pleasant （嗓音）沙哑的；（音乐）带沙沙声的

2. give sb top/star billing: to name a particular performer, actor etc as being the most important person in a show, play etc 选定某人领衔主演

Not all approved of her wartime popularity. She was at the lowly end of the social scale, the daughter of a plumber and a seamstress, and if she didn’t care about that, others did. It made some people shudder (as it had made her teachers shudder) that she had forged her teenage singing career in those terrible places, working-men’s clubs. High-ups at the BBC called her songs “slush”, and some generals and MPS complained that they might make soldiers desert. Her quick retort was to point to her postbag: 1,000 letters a week from servicemen, who adored her because she was ordinary, friendly and sisterly, the sort of girl they had left behind. What was more, they especially liked the sentimental songs. She knew they would. They were corny but home-bred, like a conversation between two people who found it hard to express their feelings to each other, as many ordinary English people did. We’ll meet again, don’t know where, don’t know when...

然而并非人人都认同薇拉·琳恩的战时声望。她出身社会底层，父亲是水管工，母亲是裁缝。就算她对此毫不在意，别人却不这么想。十几岁的琳恩在工人俱乐部这种可怕的地方开创了歌唱生涯，让某些人心里直打颤（就像曾经也让她的众老师哆嗦）。英国广播公司的高层称她的歌曲“滥情庸俗”，一些将军、下院议员抱怨她的歌曲会让士兵脱逃，她会立即提到她收到的公众来信予以回击：一周能收到一千封战士来信。战士们喜爱她，因为她普通、亲切、像他们的姐妹，是那种他们留在后方的女孩。更重要的是，他们格外喜欢那些感伤的歌曲。她知道他们一定会喜欢。那些歌曲虽然老套却是家乡出品，就像两个难以诉说对对方情意的人之间的谈话——许多英国普通人就是这样的。“我们将会重逢，不知会在何处，不知会在何时……”

注：

slush: feelings or stories that seem silly because they are too romantic 庸俗的浪漫情调；无聊的爱情故事

She wasn’t glamorous like the Hollywood stars, Betty Grable for example, whom the fighting men all lusted after. Nothing sparkled on her; she wore utility suits and, often, uniform. She was not remote; she brought home closer to the boys and, at home, she was in the fight with everyone else. She sang in factories, on airfields, and in the Underground during the Blitz. After concerts in London she would drive home in her Austin 10, a tin hat beside her in case shrapnel came through the roof. She popped over with flowers to hospitals where soldiers’ wives had just had babies, to announce the good news on her show. And in 1944 she went out to the Far East to sing to her farthest-flung listeners in person.

薇拉·琳恩不像诸如贝蒂·格拉布尔这种令所有战士疯狂迷恋的好莱坞明星那样光彩照人。琳恩身上没什么闪闪发光的衣服；她穿工装套装，经常就是一身制服。她并不是遥不可及；她让海外士兵们更近距离地感受到家乡；而在家乡，她和其他所有人一起战斗。她在工厂和机场歌唱，闪电战期间在地铁里歌唱。在伦敦，音乐会结束后，她会开着奥斯汀10回家，手边放着一顶钢盔，以防弹片穿透顶棚飞下来。她带着鲜花去医院慰问刚刚生产的军人妻子，在她的节目上播报好消息。1944年，她飞到远东亲自给她最遥远的听众唱歌。

It was her special duty, she felt, to cheer up boys who were forgotten. In Burma, the toughest part of the trip, she was one girl among 6,000 men. She swapped her flowing chiffon frock for shapeless khakis that at least kept the mosquitoes out, and sang until her make-up ran in the humidity and her voice became a croak. In camp she lived as the boys did, in a grass hut, washing out of a bucket. She drank tea with them, and sat on their beds in field hospitals to chat, even though the stench of gangrene almost overwhelmed her. The battle of Kohima was raging not far off, and she was game to record her songs against the gunfire. That was forbidden but, in any case, she was already the sweet voice of the war.

她认为，鼓舞那些被遗忘的战士是她的特殊使命。在缅甸——这段旅程里最艰辛的地方，她作为女孩子跟6000名男士并肩作战。她换下顺滑的雪纺连衣裙，穿上毫无造型但至少可以防蚊的卡其布军装来为战士们歌唱，直至妆容被湿热的空气弄花、嗓音变得沙哑。在营地里，她跟战士们一样生活，住在草屋，用水桶浇着洗澡。她和他们一起喝茶，坐在战地医院的病床上同伤员聊天，哪怕坏疽的恶臭几乎令她窒息。科希马战役在不远处进行得如火如荼，而她有胆量冒着炮火录制歌曲。她这个想法并未获得许可，但无论如何，她都已是战地甜嗓。

She traded on that for the rest of her long life. Any brave things she had done were brushed off, as she kept her Burma souvenirs (the tiny secret diary, the fresh-tugged bullet she was given by a surgeon) in a plastic bag stowed in a drawer. After all, she had been one among so many. But she went on singing the songs and working for forces’ charities, and thus stayed firmly fixed in public hearts. Producers of her many concerts and TV shows, from the 1950s to the 1980s, often tried to update her. They persuaded her to wear modern gowns and to sing Lennon-McCartney and country music, both of which she rather liked. But if they dared to suggest that “White Cliffs” or “I’ll Be Seeing You” were outmoded, she was horrified and offended. The songs summed up Britain in its finest hour. She—after 1975, Dame Vera—had to keep that memory alive.

薇拉·琳恩的漫长余生依仗这个标签而铺展。当她将缅甸之行的纪念物——一个小的秘密日记本、一颗外科医生送给她的刚取出来的子弹——放入塑料袋并收进抽屉中时，她所有英勇的举动都随之被拂去。毕竟，投身战争的人很多很多，她只是其中一个。但是，她继续唱着那些歌，为部队慈善机构工作，因而也被大众牢牢地记在心里。从20世纪50年代到80年代，她举办了多场演唱会，参加了许多电视节目，共事的制作人经常试着让她跟上潮流。他们劝说她穿时尚的礼服，唱列侬和麦卡特尼搭档创作的以及乡村风格的音乐，这两样她都十分喜欢。然而，如果他们胆敢表示《白崖》或者《后会有期》已过时，她会大为震惊并觉得受到了冒犯。这些歌曲概括了最光辉时刻的英国。她薇拉·琳恩——1975年获封大英帝国女爵士后被称作“薇拉女爵士”——要让那些记忆延续下去。

The public certainly understood. Her appearances, even with her voice long gone, drew crowds who cheered her as warmly as ever. In chillier weather the regal fur came out again, if only as a hat. She would smile back in constant delight, regularly waving, as if she had been born to it. Women would sometimes curtsy to her, feeling it was right somehow. For this was like a queen passing.

公众当然理解。即使琳恩早已唱不了了，但她的出现依然引得人群欢呼，人们热情依旧。寒冷的日子里，她那皇家毛皮再次现身，哪怕只是作为帽子。她向观众报以微笑，始终面露喜悦，频频挥手，仿佛这副做派与生俱来。女士有时会向她行屈膝礼，她们觉得反正就是该这么做。因为眼前的景象就好像是女王走过一样。

翻译组：

Alex，不务正业的理工男

Ronnie，动物保护主义者

Lixia，女，爱爬山的健身小白，美食狂人

校对组：

Fiona，口笔译小菜鸟，胡粉Lenka粉
Lee，爱骑行的妇女之友+Timberland粉
Qianna，追求专业的非英专，很讲逻辑，英伦摇滚迷

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Sheri，坚信可以forever young的老年人

提起二战时的英国，有人会想起丘吉尔在抨击绥靖政策时，以一声咆哮结束了演讲；也有人会想起那部以真实事件为题材的著名电影《国王的演讲》，其中乔治六世对德宣战的演讲令人难忘。而《经济学人》的这篇讣告又让我们听到了另一个声音，那就是薇拉·琳恩的歌声。

有人会说，在世界大战中，拼得是军队规模、武器装备、战略战术，歌声能有什么用？丘吉尔是这样评价琳恩的，“琳恩相当于四个陆军师的力量。”在大战中，输赢进退往往是政治家们所关注的，而士兵本身会被忽略。即便在战争中没有受过伤，亲眼目睹战争的残忍给士兵们留下了极大的心灵创伤。在《飘》中，艾希礼参加了南北作战，他愿意为了南方而战，但是在给妻子梅兰妮的信中，他提到：“For, win or lose, we lose just the same.”从本质上来说，战争是没有赢家的，士兵们更能体会到这一点，再勇敢的士兵都会有消极的情绪，而亲人朋友又不在身边，这时琳恩的歌声便给他们带来了精神的慰藉。

很多时候，人们看重的是物质的东西，就像战争中的兵器，而忽视了人心。但正是那些像声音一样无形的东西，在最黑暗的时刻带来了希望与温暖。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人科技|| 机器学习的成本问题

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490936&idx=1&sn=fa59e27a4be484ece588f5405f51f86e&chksm=fba04edfccd7c7c9c66b0a1d51eed8a074d0ecf9499ca910e67e8026c9deb11753b08fa7e798#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Jennie，女，MTI低才生，社会学爱好者

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组 

The cost of training machines is becoming a problem

机器学习的成本逐渐成为一个问题

英文部分选自经济学人20200611期Technology Quarterly版块

The cost of training machines is becoming a problem

机器学习的成本逐渐成为一个问题

Increased complexity and competition are part of it

部分原因是复杂度增加和竞争更加激烈

The fundamental assumption of the computing industry is that number-crunching gets cheaper all the time. Moore’s law, the industry’s master metronome, predicts that the number of components that can be squeezed onto a microchip of a given size—and thus, loosely, the amount of computational power available at a given cost—doubles every two years.

计算领域的基本假设是数字运算（处理）总会变得越来越便宜。计算领域的发展遵循摩尔定律给出的节奏，而摩尔定律预测在给定面积的微芯片上可集成的组件数（因此，大概地说在既定成本下可获得的计算力)每两年翻一番。

For many comparatively simple AI applications, that means that the cost of training a computer is falling, says Christopher Manning, an associate director of the Institute for Human-Centered AI at the University of Stanford. But that is not true everywhere. A combination of ballooning complexity and competition means costs at the cutting edge are rising sharply.

斯坦福大学“以人为本人工智能研究所”副所长克里斯托弗•曼宁（Christopher Manning）表示，对很多相对简单的人工智能应用程序来讲，根据摩尔定律，训练一台计算机的成本在下降。但这并不适用于所有情况。不断增长的复杂度加上愈发激烈的竞争，意味着最前沿的机器学习成本正在急剧上升。

Dr Manning gives the example of BERT, an AI language model built by Google in 2018 and used in the firm’s search engine. It had more than 350m internal parameters and a prodigious appetite for data. It was trained using 3.3bn words of text culled mostly from Wikipedia, an online encyclopedia. These days, says Dr Manning, Wikipedia is not such a large data-set. “If you can train a system on 30bn words it’s going to perform better than one trained on 3bn.” And more data means more computing power to crunch it all.

曼宁博士举了BERT的例子。BERT是谷歌在2018年建立的人工智能语言模型，并在谷歌搜索引擎上使用。该模型有超过3亿5千万个内部参数，对于数据的需求极大。训练词库包含了33亿个单词，其中大部分单词采集自网络百科---维基百科。曼宁博士表示，现在来看，维基百科的数据集并不算大。“如果用300亿个词汇来训练一个系统，结果会比使用30亿个词汇训练的系统表现得更好。”而更多的数据意味着需要更多的运算力来“消化”它。

OpenAI, a research firm based in California, says demand for processing power took off in 2012, as excitement around machine learning was starting to build. It has accelerated sharply. By 2018, the computer power used to train big models had risen 300,000-fold, and was doubling every three and a half months (see chart). It should know—to train its own “OpenAI Five” system, designed to beat humans at “Defense of the Ancients 2”, a popular video game, it scaled machine learning “to unprecedented levels”, running thousands of chips non-stop for more than ten months.

一所位于加州的科研公司OpenAI表示，2012年，人们开始对机器学习感兴趣，因此对计算机处理能力的需求也开始增加，并且增速巨大。到2018年，用于大模型训练的计算机的运行能力增长了30万倍，且每三个半月就翻一番（见图表）。为了训练其研发设计的OpenAI5系统能在流行的电子游戏《DOTA2》中战胜人类玩家，该公司清楚自己需将机器学习能力提升到“前所未有的水平”，（完成这样的训练）需要数千枚芯片连续10个多月不间断运行。

Exact figures on how much this all costs are scarce. But a paper published in 2019 by researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst estimated that training one version of “Transformer”, another big language model, could cost as much as $3m. Jerome Pesenti, Facebook’s head of AI, says that one round of training for the biggest models can cost “millions of dollars” in electricity consumption.

有关机器训练成本的具体数据非常少。但马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校的研究者于2019年发布了一篇论文，该论文指出训练一款大型语言模型“变形金刚”的成本可达300万美元。脸书的AI负责人杰罗姆·佩森蒂（Jerome Pesenti）表示，对最大的模型而言，一轮训练下来，电力成本就有“好几百万美元”。

Help from the cloud

云端助力

Facebook, which turned a profit of $18.5bn in 2019, can afford those bills. Those less flush with cash are feeling the pinch. Andreessen Horowitz, an influential American venture-capital firm, has pointed out that many AI startups rent their processing power from cloud-computing firms like Amazon and Microsoft. The resulting bills—sometimes 25% of revenue or more—are one reason, it says, that AI startups may make for less attractive investments than old-style software companies. In March Dr Manning’s colleagues at Stanford, including Fei-Fei Li, an AI luminary, called for the creation of a National Research Cloud, a cloud-computing initiative to help American AI researchers keep up with spiraling bills.

脸书当然负担得起这笔开销，它在2019年一年的盈利额就有185亿美元；但资金没那么充裕的公司就捉襟见肘了。美国颇有影响力的风投公司安德森·霍洛维兹基金（Andreessen Horowitz）指出，很多AI初创公司会从像亚马逊和微软这样的云计算公司租借计算机处理服务，最终的租用费有时会达到营业额的25%，甚至更高。这也是相比老牌软件公司，AI初创企业投资吸引力不足的原因之一。三月，曼宁博士的同事、包括AI专家李飞飞在内，呼吁创建“国家研究云端”。“国家研究云端”是一个云计算项目，旨在帮助美国AI研究者面对猛涨的运算服务费用时能继续把研究开展下去。

The growing demand for computing power has fueled a boom in chip design and specialized devices that can perform the calculations used in AI efficiently. The first wave of specialist chips were graphics processing units (GPUs), designed in the 1990s to boost video-game graphics. As luck would have it, GPUs are also fairly well-suited to the sort of mathematics found in AI.

对计算能力不断增长的需求促进了芯片设计的迅猛发展，也推动了为AI提供高效计算功能的专用设备的迅猛发展。专用芯片的第一波浪潮是图形处理器（GPU），它于20世纪90年代问世，用来增强电子游戏的图形效果。碰巧的是，GPU也很适合用于AI中的数学计算。

Further specialisation is possible, and companies are piling in to provide it. In December, Intel, a giant chipmaker, bought Habana Labs, an Israeli firm, for $2bn. Graphcore, a British firm founded in 2016, was valued at $2bn in 2019. Incumbents such as Nvidia, the biggest GPU-maker, have reworked their designs to accommodate AI. Google has designed its own “tensor-processing unit” (TPU) chips in-house. Baidu, a Chinese tech giant, has done the same with its own “Kunlun” chips. Alfonso Marone at KPMG reckons the market for specialised AI chips is already worth around $10bn, and could reach $80bn by 2025.

进一步实现专业化是有可能的，很多公司也正跻身这一行业，提供专用AI芯片。去年12月，大型芯片制造公司英特尔以20亿美元的价格收购了以色列Habana Labs公司。英国公司Graphcore成立于2016年，其估值在2019年时为20亿美元。而已进入该行业的公司，如最大的GPU制造商Nvidia，为了适应AI，已经修改了他们的设计。谷歌内部自造了TPU芯片。中国科技巨头百度同样自研出了“昆仑”芯片。毕马威（KPMG）的阿方索·马龙（Alfonso Marone）认为，专用AI芯片的市场规模已达到100亿美元左右，且有望于2025年之前到达800亿美元。

“Computer architectures need to follow the structure of the data they’re processing,” says Nigel Toon, one of Graphcore’s co-founders. The most basic feature of AI workloads is that they are “embarrassingly parallel”, which means they can be cut into thousands of chunks which can all be worked on at the same time. Graphcore’s chips, for instance, have more than 1,200 individual number-crunching “cores”, and can be linked together to provide still more power. Cerebras, a Californian startup, has taken an extreme approach. Chips are usually made in batches, with dozens or hundreds etched onto standard silicon wafers 300mm in diameter. Each of Cerebras’s chips takes up an entire wafer by itself. That lets the firm cram 400,000 cores onto each.

Graphcore的联合创始人奈杰尔·图恩（Nigel Toon）表示：“计算机架构需遵循其处理的数据的结构。” AI工作负荷最基本的特征便是“以令人尴尬的方式同时运转”，也就是说它们可以被切割为成千上万个部分，每个部分都可同时被处理。例如，Graphcore的芯片有1200多个单独的数字运算“核”，还可以连接起来进行更强大的运算。 加利福尼亚一家初创公司Cerebras采取了一种极端的方式。芯片通常是成批制造，再把数十或数百批芯片蚀刻在直径300毫米的标准硅片上，而Cerebras公司的芯片都是一批芯片占据一整块硅片。这样一来，该公司的每个芯片都可以塞进400,000个运算核。

Other optimisations are important, too. Andrew Feldman, one of Cerebras’s founders, points out that AI models spend a lot of their time multiplying numbers by zero. Since those calculations always yield zero, each one is unnecessary, and Cerebras’s chips are designed to avoid performing them. Unlike many tasks, says Mr Toon at Graphcore, ultra-precise calculations are not needed in AI. That means chip designers can save energy by reducing the fidelity of the numbers their creations are juggling. (Exactly how fuzzy the calculations can get remains an open question.)

其他的优化项目同样重要。Cerebras的创始人之一安德鲁·费尔德曼（Andrew Feldman）指出，人工智能模型耗费大量时间做数字乘以零的运算。由于这些计算结果总会是0，因此每次计算都是无用功，而Cerebras芯片的设计就可以规避这些无用的计算。图恩先生表示，AI与其他领域不同，不需要超精确的计算。这也就是说，芯片设计师可以通过降低数字处理的精确性来节省能源。

All that can add up to big gains. Mr. Toon reckons that Graphcore’s current chips are anywhere between ten and 50 times more efficient than GPUs. They have already found their way into specialised computers sold by Dell, as well as into Azure, Microsoft’s cloud-computing service. Cerebras has delivered equipment to two big American government laboratories.

这些都会带来巨大的收益。图恩先生预计Graphcore公司现有芯片的效率要比GPU高出10到50倍。戴尔出售的专用计算机、以及微软云计算服务系统Azure当中都应用了Graphcore芯片。Cerebras公司的设备已经在美国两家大型的政府实验室中投入运用。

“Moore’s law isn’t possible any more”

“摩尔定律已经失效了”

Such innovations will be increasingly important, for the AIfuelled explosion in demand for computer power comes just as Moore’s law is running out of steam. Shrinking chips is getting harder, and the benefits of doing so are not what they were. Last year Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s founder, opined bluntly that “Moore’s law isn’t possible any more”.

随着摩尔定律逐渐失效，由人工智能激起的对计算能力的需求激增，此类的创新将越来越重要。缩小芯片的难度日益加大，带来的收益也不如从前。去年Nvidia的创始人黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）直言不讳地表示：“摩尔定律已经失效了”。

Quantum solutions and neuromantics

量子学方案及神经学

Other researchers are therefore looking at more exotic ideas. One is quantum computing, which uses the counter-intuitive properties of quantum mechanics to provide big speed-ups for some sorts of computation. One way to think about machine learning is as an optimisation problem, in which a computer is trying to make trade-offs between millions of variables to arrive at a solution that minimises as many as possible. A quantum-computing technique called Grover’s algorithm offers big potential speed-ups, says Krysta Svore, who leads the Quantum Systems division at Microsoft.

因此，其他研究者正另辟蹊径，考虑一些更加新奇的想法。其中一项便是量子计算，即运用量子力学的反直觉属性来提供巨大的加速度，进而支持某些运算。机器学习可以被视为一个优化问题，也就是一台计算机在数百万的变量中进行取舍，以得出一个最小解的问题。微软量子系统部门的负责人克里斯塔•斯沃尔(Krysta Svore)表示，一种名为格罗弗算法的量子计算技术能够提供巨大的潜在加速度。

Another idea is to take inspiration from biology, which proves that current brute-force approaches are not the only way. Cerebras’s chips consume around 15kW when running flat-out, enough to power dozens of houses (an equivalent number of GPUs consumes many times more). A human brain, by contrast, uses about 20W of energy—about a thousandth as much—and is in many ways cleverer than its silicon counterpart. Firms such as Intel and IBM are therefore investigating “neuromorphic” chips, which contain components designed to mimic more closely the electrical behaviour of the neurons that make up biological brains.

另一个灵感来自于生物学，它证明目前的暴风(brute-force)算法并不是唯一的算法。Cerebras公司的芯片在全速运行时的功耗大约是15千瓦，足以为几十户家庭供电（而同样数量的GPU消耗的电力是它的数倍）。相比之下，人脑的功耗约为20瓦，仅为芯片的千分之一，且在很多方面表现都优于硅芯片。因此，英特尔和IBM等公司都在进行“神经形态”芯片的研究，这种芯片的元件可以更精确地模拟人脑神经元的电流传导。

注：brute-force：physical strength, rather than intelligence and careful thinking

For now, though, all that is far off. Quantum computers are relatively well-understood in theory, but despite billions of dollars in funding from tech giants such as Google, Microsoft and IBM, actually building them remains an engineering challenge. Neuromorphic chips have been built with existing technologies, but their designers are hamstrung by the fact that neuroscientists still do not understand what exactly brains do, or how they do it.

不过目前，一切还很遥远。量子计算机已经有了较好的理论支持，但尽管谷歌、微软、IBM等科技巨头投入了数十亿美元的研发基金，实际制造仍是一个工程学上的挑战。虽然利用现有技术已能制造出神经形态芯片，但由于神经科学家对大脑的功能及其工作原理都知之甚少，使得芯片设计者们受到了很大的牵制。

That means that, for the foreseeable future, AI researchers will have to squeeze every drop of performance from existing computing technologies. MrToon is bullish, arguing that there are plenty of gains to be had from more specialised hardware and from tweaking existing software to run faster. To quantify the nascent field’s progress, he offers an analogy with video games: “We’re past Pong,” he says. “We’re maybe at Pac-Man by now.” All those without millions to spend will be hoping he is right. 

这意味着，在可预见的未来，人工智能的科研人员将不得不榨取现有计算机技术的每一分性能。图恩先生对此表示看好，他认为更专业的硬件、以及对现有软件进行调试而提高其运行速度，二者都可以带来许多好处。为了量化这个新领域的进展，他将其比作电子游戏：“我们已经超越了《pong》的阶段，现在差不多在《吃豆人》阶段了。”对于没有巨大财力的公司来说，希望他是正确的。

翻译组：

Lecea, 坚信“腹有诗书气自华”的追梦girl

无忌，心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩

Chao，爱读书思考的DPhil candidate，TE爱好者

Piggy，爱吃鱼，爱跳舞，爱睡回笼觉的小能猫，NUS食品系

Iris， 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨，现国际女子修道院MTIer，外刊爱好者 

校对组：

Lee ，爱骑行的妇女之友，Timberland粉

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

3

观点|评论|思考

本期感想

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

我们最想知道是当我们到达摩尔定律的尽头的时候，芯片技术是不是就停滞了。这就像是三体里说的技术的硬瓶颈一样。但是在到达尽头之前，我们需要先理解这个尽头到底在哪里。

首先，程序语言的选择就已经可以让程序快几倍了。同样的程序，用C跑也许可以比用Python跑快上几十倍。其次，是算法层次的提高，程序优化过程中可以对复杂的计算进行优化。尤其是对很多复杂的矩阵计算进行线性代数层面的优化，这样的优化有的可以提高到几何倍甚至乘方级别的时间缩减。

那么除了程序语言还有算法优化以外，文章又提到了量子运算。量子运算的思维框架和传统的二进制记忆储存的机器不同：机器的内存可以同一时间存在于多个状态，用量子位元来表示。这样讲貌似很难理解，我用更通俗的话解释一下。如果你有两个比特 (bit), 那么在一个时间点，你可以表达四种状态中一种状态： 

（0，0）， （0，1），（1，0）， （1，1）

但是量子位可以在同一时间，表达四种状态的所有状态。这意味着什么？如果你的量子计算机有三个比特，你可以同时表达二的三次方种状态，也就是8种状态。四个比特，你可以同时表达二的四次方种状态，也就是16种状态。那么现在，谷歌在2019年10月的时候，量子计算机可以有53个量子位，那么可以在同一个时间点，表达超过10,000,000,000,000,000种状态。这种计算能力是可怕的。而且增长速度不是线性的，而是以指数级增长的。

但是这看似无敌的技术其实还处于婴儿期。普通的处理器可以在追踪大部分比特，但是量子位的管理是非常苦难的。纠缠在一起的量子位在很短时间内又可能分离开，让整个管理机制变得极其复杂。

说了这么多和我们有什么关系？首先就是加密和解密。破解世界上的任何密码无非是一个复杂的计算问题。从我们的手机密码，到我们医疗数据，到我们的银行的信息都是被加密保护储存在数据库里的。然而，当这个计算一旦落入了不善的组织的手里，一切利器都是变成武器。加密的对立面就是破解。用成熟的量子破解算法去解密普通的加密也许可以在几秒内完成。那么反之，如果用成熟的量子加密算法去给重要信息加密，普通的解码机制可能会算到宇宙的趋近尽头也算不出来解。

云计算的技术在会让这些专业级别的基础慢慢步入到我们的生活中。很多企业已经开始大量使用了云计算的服务来优化自己的开销，毕竟管理数据中心是一件很辛苦和高成本的事情，而租用服务则好很多。这样中小型企业更有可能发展起来。而无论是计算的优化也好，还是从传统意义上的技术革新也好，最终都无法离开安全。这是一个我们所有人值得深思的问题。未来法律要如何去和这些新兴技术融合和共同进化才能让大部分的使用者可以安心的使用这些技术呢？我们有如何保证利器不会落入坏人的手里呢？快的发展必然会面对更多的挑战，尤其是指数增长的技术。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人财经 || 一首凉凉送给德国金融科技巨头Wirecard

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490929&idx=1&sn=2a281c8df2d7595925bb0831f72c84ab&chksm=fba04ed6ccd7c7c0642de5c4e7f225ff6842208cb0327ae102cd2f59bfe25a57d08234aa0ed4#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Ashley，女 ，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝

一文回顾支付巨头Wirecard（被称为欧洲支付宝）的12年财务造假史

 https://www.chainnews.com/articles/033205675917.htm

（强烈推荐阅读）

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

The demise of a Wunderkind

神童的陨落

英文部分选自经济学人20200627期Finance版块

The demise of a Wunderkind

神童的陨落

注释：

Wunderkind：出自德语；指神童,少年得志者,有巨大成就的青年人，而文中所提及的Wirecard正是一家德国公司。

How a fintech star fooled most of the people all the time

看金融科技巨头如何一直骗过了大多数人

Wirecard’s success was once regarded in Germany as rivalling that of SAP, a software-maker and the country’s most valuable firm. No longer. Felix Hufeld, the head of BaFin, the financial regulator, was blunt: the accounting scandal at the payment-processing firm is a “complete disaster”, and a “shame for Germany”. “We would have expected such a situation anywhere in the world, but not in Germany,” said Peter Altmaier, the economy minister. Mr Altmaier may have unwittingly put his finger on a key point—that everyone with influence over the firm, from board members to auditors and regulators, seems to have been complacent. In a darker version of events, the actions of some may have been complicit, even criminal.

在德国，Wirecard 的成功曾被认为可与 SAP 相媲美（SAP是一家软件制造公司，也是德国最具价值的公司）。但Wirecard已今非昔比。德国金融监管机构联邦金融监管局(BaFin)局长菲利克斯•胡菲尔德(Felix Hufeld)直言不讳：这家支付处理公司的会计丑闻是一场“彻头彻尾的灾难” ，是“德国的耻辱”。德国经济部长彼得•阿尔特迈尔(Peter Altmaier)表示: “这样的丑闻发生在哪都不应该发生在德国啊。” 阿尔特迈尔可能无意中指出了一个关键点ーー从董事会成员到审计师和监管机构，每个对公司有影响力的人都过度自信了。该事件的腹黑版本暗指这些关联方可能涉嫌同谋，甚至犯罪。

注释：

1.rivalling：n.竞争对手；v.与…相匹敌；比得上

2.unwittingly：无意地;不经意地;不知不觉地

On June 18th Wirecard’s auditor for the past decade, ey, said that it could not find €1.9bn ($2.1bn), amounting to nearly a quarter of the firm’s balance-sheet, that was meant to be held in escrow accounts in the Philippines. Wirecard then withdrew its results for the last fiscal year and for this year’s first quarter. Markus Braun, the chief executive, resigned. On June 22nd Wirecard admitted that the €1.9bn “probably does not exist”. By then more than 80% of its market value had evaporated within three trading days. Later that day Mr Braun was arrested on suspicion of using fraudulent accounting techniques to inflate reported revenues. The next day he was released on bail. On June 25th Wirecard began insolvency proceedings.

6月18日，为Wirecard提供审计服务长达十年之久的安永（EY）表示，他们无法确认19亿欧元(约合21亿美元) 的资金，这些资金本应存放在菲律宾的第三方托管账户中，占该公司资产负债表的近四分之一。随后，Wirecard 撤回了上一财年和今年第一季度的业绩。首席执行官马库斯•布劳恩(Markus Braun)辞职。6月22日，Wirecard承认19亿美元“可能不存在”。之后，超过80% 的市值在三个交易日内蒸发。当天晚些时候，布劳恩因涉嫌使用欺诈性的会计手段虚增报告收入而被捕。第二天他被保释出狱。6月25日，Wirecard 开启破产程序。

注释：

1.escrow accounts：条件交付帐户；第三者保管帐户；口袋帐户

2.evaporated：vi. 蒸发，挥发；消失，失踪

3.suspicion：n. 怀疑；嫌疑；疑心；一点儿；vt. 怀疑

4.inflate：vi. 膨胀；充气

It is a brutal fall from grace for a once-feted executive. After taking the helm in 2002 Mr Braun transformed the startup into a pioneer of processing digital payments, offering its services to porn sites and online-gambling sites, which other digital-payment platforms tended to shun. Over the years Wirecard attracted hundreds of thousands of new merchants, including Aldi and Lidl, supermarket chains, and several airlines. In 2006 it bought a bank and evolved into a full-service payment operation. In 2018 it knocked Commerzbank out of the dax, causing a sensation in Germany. “It was an amazing growth story,” recalls Wolfgang Donie, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank who, like many other equity analysts, used to recommend the stock to his bank’s clients. By June 18th Donie’s notes to clients were warning: “hands off Wirecard shares!!!”

曾经受人追捧、万丈光芒的管理层落下了神坛。布劳恩在2002年执掌公司大权后，将一家初创企业转变成了电子支付处理的先驱，为成人网站和线上博彩网站提供服务，而这些是其他电子支付平台所有意避开的。过去几年间，Wirecard 吸引了成千上万的新商家，其中包括连锁超市Aldi和Lidl，以及多家航空公司。2006年，它收购了一家银行并逐步发展成为一家提供全方位支付服务的公司。2018年，Wirecard取代德国商业银行，成为了德国DAX股指成分股企业。这件事在德国引起了轰动。北德意志银行的分析师Wolfgang Donie回忆道，“Wirecard曾是一家多么棒的成长型企业。”他和其他许多证券分析师一样，曾向客户们大力推荐Wirecard的股票。在6月18日，Donie则警告客户们，“卖光Wirecard的股票！！！”

注释：

1. Fete: v. 热情招待、表彰

2. DAX: 德国重要的股票指数。由德意志交易所集团推出的一个蓝筹股指数。该指数中包含有30家主要的德国公司。DAX指数是全欧洲与英国伦敦金融时报100指数齐名的重要证券指数，也是世界证券市场中的重要指数之一。

3. Sensation: n. 感觉；轰动一时的事

Neither equity analysts, asset managers, auditors nor regulators come out of the story well. All seem to have ignored numerous red flags. BaFin’s record looks especially poor. In 2016 short-sellers released a report accusing Wirecard of corruption, fraud and weak money-laundering controls, which the company denied. In 2019 the Financial Times (ft) published an investigation into Wirecard’s dubious accounting practices. In response BaFin filed a criminal complaint against two FT journalists and several short-sellers. It also took the unprecedented step of banning short-selling against Wirecard, citing risks to the economy and market stability.

证券分析师、资产管理公司、审计师和监管机构都无法从这个事件全身而退。所有参与者似乎都忽视了众多的危险信号。德国联邦金融监管局的记录看起来尤其差劲。2016年，做空者曾发布报告指责Wirecard涉嫌腐败，欺诈和洗钱控制不力等行为，但都被Wirecard否认了。金融时报在2019年发表了一份关于Wirecard可疑的会计实务的调查。作为回应，德国金融监管局对两名金融时报的记者和多位做空者提起了刑事诉讼。该局还以经济和市场稳定面临风险为由，采取了前所未有的举措来禁止做空Wirecard。

注释:

dubious: adj. 不可信的

On paper, BaFin is required to regulate only Wirecard’s banking arm. But it is also meant to make sure that the boards of firms listed on the dax are up to the job. The members of both Wirecard’s management and its supervisory board lacked the competence to lead a multinational tech firm, says Bernd Ziesemer, chairman of the Cologne School of Journalists. None sat on the boards of any other firms listed on the dax. Three of the four members of the management board came from Austria, like Mr Braun, inviting comparisons of board meetings to a Brettljause, a hearty Austrian snack break with mates on an Alpine peak.

理论上，德国联邦金融监管局只需要监管Wirecard的银行部门。但Bafin也有义务保证德国DAX指数成分股企业董事会正常稳定运行。科隆记者学院（Cologne School of Journalists）主席贝恩德·齐泽默（Bernd Ziesemer）称，Wirecard的管理层和监事会的成员都缺乏领导一家跨国科技企业的能力。他们中没有一个人还任其他德国DAX指数成分股企业的董事会成员。与布劳恩（Braun）一样，公司管理委员会的四名成员中有三名都来自奥地利，使得董事会议可以与什锦冷盘（Brettljause）用餐相比拟（很随意），后者是与同伴在阿尔卑斯山顶峰享受丰盛的奥地利小吃时间。

注释：

1. on paper：仅照字面看；理论上 judged from written information only, but not proved in practice

2. hearty：adj. （饭菜）丰盛的 large and very satisfying

3. Brettljause（什锦冷盘）：在奥地利的阿尔卑斯山区，经常会在菜单上看到一道名为Brettljause的美食。“Jause”在奥地利是“正餐时分小吃”的意思；“Brettl”是盛放小吃的木头板，通常上面会放奶酪、果酱、泡菜和面包片，不过也根据地区的不同，让食客选择添加其它的小吃。

Germany will need to rethink its piecemeal regulatory system, particularly if it wants Frankfurt to lure business from London. The bulk of Wirecard’s business, bizarrely, is regulated by the Upper Bavarian district government, which was woefully ill-suited to oversee a global fintech firm. After claiming that the regulators “worked very hard and did their job”, Olaf Scholz, the finance minister, has promised to consider changing the rules. That is surely only the start of the soul-searching. 

德国将需对其尚不完整的监管体系重新思考，尤其是如果它希望法兰克福能从伦敦吸引来生意。诡异的是，Wirecard的大部分业务由上巴伐利亚行政区政府所监管，但该区政府极其不适合监管一个全球性金融科技企业。在财政部长奥拉夫·朔尔茨（Olaf Scholz）声称监管机构“非常努力且称职”后，他承诺考虑改变监管规则。这必将只是深刻反省的开端。

注释：

1. piecemeal：adj. 逐渐做成（或发生）的；零敲碎打的；零散的 done or happening gradually at different times and often in different ways, rather than carefully planned at the beginning

2. woeful：adj. 糟糕的；严重的；不合意的 very bad or serious; that you disapprove of

ill-suited：adj. 不合适的; 不相称的 If something is ill-suited to a particular purpose, it is not right or appropriate for that purpose. If someone is ill-suited to a particular job, they are not right or appropriate for that job.

3. do the job：起作用；有效 to be effective or successful in doing what you want

4. soul-searching：n. (深刻的)反省 a long and careful examination of your thoughts and feelings, especially when you are trying to make a difficult moral decision or thinking about something that has gone wrong

5. Upper Bavarian district（上巴伐利亚行政区）：是德国巴伐利亚州的7个行政区之一，首府慕尼黑。

翻译组：

Ellie，女，金融硕士，经济学人粉丝

Chao，男，爱读书思考的DPhil Candidate，TE粉丝

Brittany，女，会计金融美本，行业分析师，爱经济学人

校对组：

Zihan，男，对冲基金，大数据工程师

Emily，女，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝

随着企业日趋全球化、服务模式日趋复杂化、供应链日趋延长，对于企业经营的监管也变得越来越难。上市公司的首席执行官、民营企业老板们是对于法律、监管最精明的人群，因为追逐利润的驱使，其中最精通监管的人总是可以依靠监管漏洞套利，而相比之下，监管者对于市场变化的调整速度就显得慢得多，究其原因可能有：1）监管者把工作做得再好也没有剩余利润可以获得，激励不够；2）监管者本身处在信息不利的地方，信息不对称；3）监管本身只有在出现问题后才能补救，具有延迟性；4）监管者并不是这个猫抓老鼠游戏中最聪明的人，最聪明的人并不甘愿做猫，这一点与第一点相关联。

这篇文章中的BaFin即德国的金融监管机构在监管Wirecard时就是令人震惊得傻楞，竟然还禁止做空某家特定公司，目的还是为了会对经济和市场稳定性带来风险。

再比如之前的Facebook因为用户隐私数据泄露问题闹得沸沸扬扬，扎克伯格去华盛顿参加听证会引起全球关注，结果其中一个年老的议员问他的第一个问题是：你们的公司是做什么的？是怎么盈利的？扎克伯格听完这个问题第一反应是想笑但是马上努力收住笑容不笑出来。可想而知，在闹得这么沸沸扬扬的情况下他一定盘算过最最坏的情况，脸书甚至有可能连带着之前的垄断问题而被要求分拆。结果我准备了所有应对的问题，监管者竟然问我我的公司是干什么的靠什么盈利？

扎克伯格当时努力收住笑容的同时就故作严肃地回答：先生，我们公司是社交软件公司，通过我们的客户投放在我们网站上的广告赚钱。然后这个议员的提问居然就这样结束了。而整场听证会几乎没有给扎克伯格带来任何难度。

一味斥责监管者老套、迂腐当然是不公平的，因为监管本身就是不断被市场参与者发现bug然后再修复的一个过程，但是从目前的情况看很多监管机构远远跟不上市场参与者的进化速度，这给监管者提了更高的要求，解决方式可能有：

1）提供监管者更好的激励和更高的回报；

2）从行业招募更优秀的玩家；

3）设计一个制度，让游戏的玩家也能承担起一部分监管竞争对手的任务并能从中得到奖励和竞争优势，这样可以分担监管压力和减少监管者的信息不对称性。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

现有经济学人讨论群一个,如果您也有兴趣，可联系小编WeChat : Education0603。由于每天加小编人很多，为提高效率，大家添加小编，暗号“TE讨论群", 通过后，请做好以下三点，否则不回复，谢谢理解。

1.转发译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题（在公众号后台回复“群规”，请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题）

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍，谢谢大家。

长按下图进行打赏

经济学人商业 || 石油化工产品

原文：http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490920&idx=1&sn=ca98c3ef6a2c3f5142bf9b14dfd8b20a&chksm=fba04ecfccd7c7d9fc29c7d31b3e51e704964c630e56a8db56c388e2b5c47f6f31ea4432c3cb#rd

1

导读

感谢思维导图作者

Rena，坐标墨尔本的留学生，爱笑爱摄影爱看书

2

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Petrochemicals

石油化工产品

英文部分选自经济学人20200627期Business版块

Petrochemicals

石油化工产品

The hole in the hedge

止损方案的漏洞

Oil companies’ favourite way to diversify isn’t going to plan

石油公司最青睐的多元化方案未必按计划进行

Oil analysts debate the future of transport fuels. That of petrochemicals—used to make everything from plastic packaging to paint—has seemed unequivocally bright. The International Energy Agency (IEA), an industry forecaster, expects them to account for half the growth in oil demand from 2019 to 2025. Better yet, America’s shale boom has furnished cheap feedstock in the form of natural gas. ExxonMobil is spending $20bn on chemical and refining facilities along America’s Gulf Coast, near Texas’s Permian basin. Royal Dutch Shell is building a huge complex in Pennsylvania, atop the Marcellus shale formation—President Donald Trump has called it “one of the single biggest construction projects in the nation”. Saudi Aramco, the largest oil firm of all, this month completed its $69bn acquisition of a 70% stake in SABIC, Saudi Arabia’s chemicals giant.

石油分析师对运输燃料的前景争论不休。但石油化工产品（各类塑料包装、涂料的原材料）的前景却似乎十分明朗。行业预测机构国际能源署（IEA）预计2019年到2025年期间，石油化工产品将占石油需求增长量的一半。更值得欣喜的是美国页岩气蓬勃发展，还以天然气的形式提供了廉价的原材料。埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）斥资200亿美元用于化工及精炼设备，该设备位于美国境内墨西哥湾沿岸靠近德州二叠纪盆地（Permian basin）。荷兰皇家壳牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)在宾夕法尼亚州（Pennsylvania）马塞勒斯页岩地层（Marcellus shale formation）上方修建大型综合设施。特朗普总统曾称其为：“国内最大的单项建筑工程之一”。全球最大的石油公司沙特阿美石油公司（Saudi Aramco）于本月以690亿美元收购了沙特化工业巨头沙特基础工业公司（SABIC）70%的股权。

注：

1. ExxonMobil：埃克森美孚，世界最大的非政府石油天然气生产商，总部设在美国德克萨斯州爱文市。其历史可以追溯到约翰·洛克菲勒于1882年创建的标准石油公司，公司连续85年以上获得3A信用等级，全球第一家市值超过4000亿美元的公司。(选自《百度百科》）

2.埃克森美孚欲在墨西哥湾投资200亿美元：http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2017-03-07/doc-ifycaafm5437285.shtml

3.二叠纪盆地（Permian basin）：https://www.zhihu.com/question/291489897

4.Royal Dutch Shell：荷兰皇家壳牌集团，又译“蚬壳”，是世界第一大石油公司，总部位于荷兰海牙和英国伦敦，由荷兰皇家石油与英国的壳牌两家公司合并组成。(选自《百度百科》）

5.Marcellus shale formation：美国页岩气的骄傲——马塞勒斯页岩区：

http://www.cnpc.com.cn/syzs/sysh/201505/35d812e78bad4ba08d798e609d21952c.shtml

6. 沙特再现大手笔 沙特阿美690亿美元收购沙特基础工业公司：

https://www.sohu.com/a/402538722_114984

7. SABIC: 沙特基础工业公司,全球领先的多元化化工企业之一。总部位于沙特利雅得,制造工厂遍布全球，包括美洲、欧洲、中东和亚太地区，产品涵盖化学品、通用以及高性能塑料，农业营养素和钢铁。2020年5月13日，沙特基础工业公司名列2020福布斯全球企业2000强榜第212位。(选自《百度百科》）

Covid-19 would seem to validate such moves. Use of petrol, diesel and jet fuel has plunged amid lockdowns but plastic packaging and medical supplies are in high demand. However, diversification that makes sense for any individual firm may prove risky for the industry as a whole.

新冠疫情似乎验证了上述举措的价值所在。封锁期间，汽油、柴油及航空燃油用量锐减，但是塑料包装及医疗用品需求量激增。虽然多样化对公司个体来说是明智之举，但对整个行业而言却可能风险重重。

On paper, the allure of petrochemicals remains strong. If the internal-combustion engine falls out of favour, the thinking goes, even sanctimonious environmentalists will still purchase polyester camping tents and synthetic sandals. The market increasingly punishes companies that invest in new drilling, so it seems only sensible to build “crackers”, sprawling networks of pipes and furnaces that break the molecular bonds in ethane, a substance extracted from natural gas, to produce ethylene, which can then be woven into those sandals, camping gear and much else besides.

理论上，石油化工产品魅力依旧。思路如下：即便内燃机不幸失宠，人们——哪怕是道貌岸然的环境保护论者——也依旧会购买聚酯纤维制成的野营帐篷以及合成材料做的凉鞋。那些在开采新油田上投资的企业很快就会受到市场的惩罚，所以唯一合理的做法是建裂解厂（生产“裂解制品”）。通过复杂的管路以及裂解炉将乙烷（天然气中提取的物质）的分子键打开，就制成了乙烯（即“裂解制品”）。乙烯可以用来生产凉鞋、野营装备及其他相关产品。

注：

On paper: Theoretically

The trouble is that too many big oil companies are making the same bet. Last year the increase in ethylene capacity was 60% higher than the rise in ethylene demand, according to the IEA.

问题是太多大型石油公司都在下同样的赌注。根据国际能源署的数据，去年乙烯产能增幅比乙烯需求增幅高出了60%。

The subsequent decline in ethylene prices had little impact on companies’ strategies. In November Bernstein, a research firm, tallied nearly $40bn a year in planned capital spending on petrochemical facilities from Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC, Russia’s Gazprom and Rosneft, and China’s Sinopec. All told, global ethylene capacity would rise by about 13m tonnes annually over the next few years, once again about 60% more than the annual rise in demand.

随后下跌的乙烯价格却对公司战略决策几乎没有影响。去年11月，研究公司伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)计算出壳牌、埃克森美孚、道达尔(Total)、雪佛龙菲利普斯化学公司(Chevron Phillips Chemical)、沙特阿美、阿布扎比国家石油公司(ADNOC)、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)、俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)以及中国的中石化(Sinopec)计划每年将总计近400亿美元的资本开支用于石化设施。未来几年全球乙烯产能合计每年将增加约1300万吨，再次比乙烯需求的年增幅高出60%。

注：

Tally: to calculate the whole number 计算（总的数目、成本等）；合计

All told: with everything counted and included 合计，总共

The pandemic does mean that oil companies have less cash for new projects. Cheap oil is also benefiting naphtha crackers in Asia, which produce chemicals from crude, and eroding the advantage of American ethane crackers, which rely on gas.

新冠疫情的确意味着石油公司在新项目上的投入资金减少。廉价的石油也使亚洲的石脑油裂解厂受益（以原油为原料），并削弱了美国乙烷裂解厂（以天然气中的乙烷为原料）的优势。

Even so, the coronavirus looks unlikely to sap individual oil firms’ enthusiasm for petrochemicals. Extra demand for single-use plastics during the pandemic has combined with lower appetite for recycled goods to lift ethylene prices a bit since April. Converting ethane to ethylene is still profitable, says Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie, an energy-research firm, “just not as profitable as some hoped”.  For many oil companies facing sceptical investors and an upstream business with uncertain short- and long-term prospects, petrochemicals have the dubious honour of being among their least bad options. 

尽管如此，新冠病毒却似乎不会削减石油公司生产石化产品的热情。疫情期间对一次性塑料产品需求的增加以及对可回收产品需求的下降，使得四月份以来乙烯价格略有上涨。能源研究公司伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)的阿兰格尔德（Alan Gelder）表示，将乙烷转化为乙烯仍然有利可图，“只不过利润空间达不到某些人的期望”。对于许多石油公司而言，面对持怀疑态度的投资者以及短、长期前景都不确定的上游业务，生产石化产品是它们短中取长的选择之一，尽管事实是否果真如此仍值得商榷。

注：

least bad options: It means that something is the best choice from a list of bad options.在一些不好的选择里面作出的最好选择。

翻译组：

Elle，女， 靠着土豆腿前行的小土豆

Zoey，女，咨询行业，爱挠头的英文码字工商

业

校对组：

Hannah，女，教书匠，经济学人粉丝

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Sophie，女，HR让我做自己，券商带我看世界

3

观点|评论|思考

本次感想

Hikali，女，准爱岛异术家，用力生活

新冠疫情对石油行业的影响无疑是巨大的。疫情发生后，能源板块的估值大幅缩水，一落成为标普500指数中市值第二低的板块。相比市值缩水这一短期危机，石油行业或许永远无法重获投资者青睐这一悲观的预期，更令从业者及旁观者担忧。一位业内高管称：“石油行业作为一个行业，将会消失。”

虽然油价大跌对石油行业而言确实是一大危机，但“行业消失”的言论或许有些耸人听闻。对石油行业而言，仍能通过开辟、发展石化产品业务看到“创造利润”的一线生机。

在石化产品业务线中，乙烷制乙烯颇受石油巨头青睐，究其原因，主要是乙烷裂解制乙烯有投资较低、原料成本较低两大优势。然而，对中国企业而言，劣势也是显而易见的。其一，国内乙烯主要从美国进口。在新冠疫情背景下，中美关系日益紧张，一旦美国开始“制裁”，我国石油行业将面临物流运输风险；其二，乙烷制乙烯产品较为单一，几乎不产生其它副产品，盈亏很大程度受乙烯下游产品价格影响，有一定价格风险。此外，乙烷价格波动、物流管道建设等因素，都将给乙烷制乙烯这一业务带来不确定性。

不仅石油行业，新冠疫情给各行各业都带来了挑战。当大酒店开始提供外卖服务，外贸公司开始开辟国内市场，汽车制造业开始改造流水线生产口罩时，我们也能觉察到，机遇与挑战并存。虽然在新冠疫情大背景下，全球经济下行已成定局，但在石头缝中寻找阳光这种苦中作乐的心态也未尝不可。

4

愿景

打造

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