原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491049&idx=1&sn=f68d7137dbe1f6d113d035a63b3397b6&chksm=fba04e4eccd7c758874bcc551759c231ea62a94a8ee51865d0a4beaadbce8cd4c925c4d6c94f#rd
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感谢思维导图作者
May Li,男,我要去追逐心中的太阳,还要继续努力的亚古兽
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The global economy
全球经济
英文部分选自经济学人20200711期Finance版块
The global economy
全球经济
How to feel better
如何才能好受些
Some economies are recovering speedily—but our analysis shows just how fragile consumer confidence can be
一些经济体正在快速复苏——但我们的分析表明消费者的信心可能非常脆弱
Orford ness, on Britain’s east coast, was a site for military tests in the 20th century. Large pagodas on the shoreline, still standing today, were designed to prevent blasts from doing damage to the surrounding wetlands. On July 4th the area braced itself for another sort of explosion. “Super Saturday” marked the opening of pubs and restaurants for the first time since lockdown began. But in Orford the beery bomb never detonated. The Jolly Sailor, a pub near the quay, had only a handful of customers in the garden. Across Britain it was the same story. Restaurant reservations remained 90% lower than they were the year before.
位于英国东海岸的奥福德岬在20世纪曾是军事测试基地。海岸线上原本用来保护周围湿地免受爆炸破坏的大型灯塔如今依旧耸立。今年7月4日,奥福德岬迎来了又一次的“爆炸”。这一天被称为“超级星期六”,酒吧和餐馆自疫情封锁以来首次开放。但“啤酒炸弹”在奥福德岬并为就此引爆。码头附近的一家“快乐水手”酒吧,啤酒花园里客人寥寥无几。整个儿英国情况其实都差不多,餐馆的预订数量比去年减少了90%。
The fate of the Jolly Sailor hints at the difficulties that rich countries face as they lift lockdowns. Most forecasters reckon that advanced-economy output, after plunging in the first half of 2020, is likely to regain its pre-crisis level some time after 2021. But not all recoveries will be equal. Some rich countries, such as Germany and South Korea, look best placed to bounce back—a “V-shaped recovery”, in the jargon. The path of GDP elsewhere may look more like an l or a W. The Economist’s analysis of real-time mobility data also shows how easily economic recoveries can go wrong, as consumers react to the possibility of fresh outbreaks.
快乐水手的命运反映出封锁结束后发达国家所面临的困难。大部分的预测人士认为,发达经济体的产出在2020年上半年遭受重创后,可能会在2021年之后恢复到危机前的水平。然而恢复程度各有不同。一些发达国家比如德国和韩国,最有可能反弹——用行话说就是"V型复苏"。其他国家的GDP走势可能更像I型或者W型。《经济学人》根据实时移动数据分析也表明,由于消费者对于新一轮疫情爆发可能性的担忧,经济复苏非常容易遇阻。
Some countries have a tougher job on their hands because their output has fallen more since February, when lockdowns started to be imposed. No one knows for sure yet who has fared well or badly. GDP data for the second quarter are not yet available, and in any case will probably be subject to large revisions over time, as is often the case in downturns. But industrial structure is one indication. Surveys of economic activity in Germany suggest that it held up better between March and May than it did in France, Italy or Spain. That may be because of its heavy reliance on manufacturing, where maintaining both output and a social distance is easier than, say, in retail or hospitality services. Capital Economics, a consultancy, argues that Poland will experience Europe’s smallest contraction in GDP this year in part because it relies little on foreign tourists.
一些国家目前面临更为艰巨的任务。因为他们的生产力比2月实施封锁后降幅更大了。现在还不能确切地评判哪个国家表现得好或差。今年第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)尚未公布,而且无论如何,GDP都可能会随着时间推移而经历大幅调整,这是经济衰退期的常见情形。不过工业结构是一个指标。对德国经济活动的调查显示,在3月至5月期间德国比法国、意大利和西班牙表现更好。这可能是因为德国严重依赖制造业,而制造业相对于零售业或者酒店服务业,更容易在维持产量的同时保持社交距离。咨询机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为,波兰今年的GDP降幅会是欧洲国家中最小的,部分原因是其经济不依赖于外国游客。
The stringency of official lockdowns, and changes to people’s behaviour, has clearly played a huge role. Research by Goldman Sachs, a bank, finds that lockdown stringency—in terms of both the strength of official rules and how enthusiastically people practised social distancing—is strongly correlated with the hit to economic activity, as measured by surveys. By this measure, Italy had the tightest lockdown for the most time (see chart 1). A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that its GDP for the first half of 2020 is likely to come in about 10% lower than it would have been otherwise—a lot of ground to make up for a country that struggled to grow even before the pandemic. By contrast, South Korea’s GDP looks likely to fall by 5%.
官方封锁的严格程度和人们行为的变化显然扮演了重要的角色。投行高盛研究表明,封锁举措的严格性(指官方措施的强度和人们对于实施社交距离的热情度)与经济活动受到的影响呈强相关。依据这个指标,意大利实施的封锁最严格、时间最长(见表1)。粗略估算表明,意大利上半年的GDP有可能比正常时期低10%,如果不是严格封锁,意大利需要弥补的敞口将更大。相比之下,韩国的GDP可能将下降5%。
注:
1. back-of-the-envelope: 粗略的计算
2. make up ground: to move faster in order to come closer to someone or something ahead 追赶,缩小差距
The lifting of lockdowns is now boosting economic activity. By how much, however, varies from country to country. Real-time activity data suggest that America and Spain are laggards, not only in terms of visits to restaurants but also to workplaces and public-transport stations. Others are powering ahead. By the end of June, economic life in Denmark and Norway had pretty much returned to normal. Danish retail sales actually rose by more than 6% year-on-year in May (compared with a double-digit decline in Britain). Germany’s restaurants were closed in May. But in recent days they have returned to full capacity (see left-hand panel of chart 2).
解封正在促进经济活动。然而,能够有多大的效果,每个国家都不尽相同。实时活动数据显示,美国和西班牙不仅在餐馆的访客量上落后,在工作场所和公共交通站点的人流量也不尽如人意。而其他国家正在奋力前进。到6月底,丹麦和挪威的经济生活基本恢复正常。丹麦5月份的零售额比去年同期增长逾6% ,相比之下,英国的零售额同比下降两位数。德国的餐馆在5月份仍处于关闭状态。但近期,它们已经恢复到满座的状态(见图表2左侧数据)。
A number of factors influence how fast an economy can bounce back. The state of households’ finances is one. Government support has shored these up: in places where stimulus payments have been large and focused on families, people have built up large cash reserves, which they can now spend. Take the case of South Korea. Households quickly spent over 80% of a 10trn-won (0.5% of GDP, or $8.4bn) emergency handout. As a result, its economy might suffer less than other big advanced economies. Aggregate household income in Japan is forecast to rise this year, thanks in part to generous emergency payments from the state. By contrast, fiscal stimulus in Italy, which had staggeringly high government debt going into the crisis, has been less generous.
影响经济复苏速度的因素有很多。家庭财务状况就是其中之一。政府的支持也进一步加强了这一点:在那些刺激性支出很大且主要针对家庭的地区,人们已经积攒了大笔现金储备可用于消费。以韩国为例,10万亿韩元(占国内生产总值的0.5%,约合84亿美元)的紧急救济金中,家庭支出迅速超出80%。因此,与其他大型发达经济体相比,韩国经济遭受的损失可能更小。预计日本今年的家庭总收入将有所增长,这在一定程度上要归功于日本政府慷慨的紧急援助。相比之下,疫情前本就债台高筑的意大利的财政刺激政策就显得没那么大方了。
注:
1. bounce :n. 弹力;活力;跳;vt. 弹跳;使弹起;vi. 弹起,反跳;弹跳;弹回
2. shore up:If you shore up something that is weak or about to fail, you do something in order to strengthen it or support it.
All this is nothing without consumer confidence. Americans have oodles of stimulus cash in their pockets (see United States section). Even so, they are cautious. A raft of evidence shows that if consumers are fearful, then lifting lockdowns makes little difference to economic outcomes. An analysis of American counties by Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago, for instance, finds that a higher number of deaths from covid-19 is associated with lower consumer activity.
没有消费者信心支撑,一切都是徒劳。美国人拥有大量的经济刺激资金(见美国部分)。即便如此,他们还是很谨慎。大量证据表明,如果消费者感到恐惧,那么哪怕解封对经济结果也几乎没有影响。例如,芝加哥大学的奥斯坦·古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)和查德·西维尔森(Chad Syverson)对美国各郡县的分析发现,新冠病毒导致的死亡人数越多,该郡县的消费活动就越少。
注:
cautious:Someone who is cautious acts very carefully in order to avoid possible danger.
That seems to be the case at the country level too. Those with a smaller number of deaths from covid-19 per million people have bounced back more decisively, according to an analysis by The Economist using data from Google on visits to retail outlets, workplaces and public-transport stations. Confidence today may also be shaped by the length of time spent under lockdown. Norway took just ten days to halve the intensity of its lockdown from its peak level. Many other European countries took ten weeks, however. That perhaps explains why Britons and Spaniards are still so cautious.
国家层面也同样如此。《经济学人》根据从谷歌获得的零售商店、工作场所、公共交通站的访客数据分析得出,每百万人中新冠病毒死亡人数越少的国家,民众越快重新振作。当下的信心或许也受封锁时长所决定。挪威仅花10天就把封锁强度从顶峰状态减半,但许多欧洲其他国家则花了十周时间。这可能解释了为何英国人和西班牙人仍表现得如此谨慎。
注:
1. bounce back:重新振作 If you bounce back after a bad experience, you return very quickly to your previous level of success, enthusiasm, or activity.
2. decisive:adj. 坚决的;果断的;决断的 able to decide sth quickly and with confidence
3. halve:v. (使)减半 to reduce by a half; to make sth reduce by a half
The latest mobility figures show precisely how fragile consumer confidence can be. People in American hotspot states, such as Arizona, Florida and Nevada, where the virus is surging, seem to have become more cautious (see right-hand panel of chart 2). A high-frequency measure of American credit-card spending maintained by JPMorgan Chase, a bank, stopped growing around June 21st—and a closely watched measure of weekly retail sales has barely increased since May. More ominously, high-frequency measures of the labour market suggest that employment in small businesses is once again declining. The risk of relapse is not confined to America. A huge drop in Australian restaurant diners in early July coincided with a large coronavirus outbreak in Victoria. Until the virus is stamped out, only one thing can be said about the recovery with certainty: it will be shape-shifting.
最新移动数据精准地表明了消费者信心有多么脆弱。在美国疫情严重的热点地区,例如亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、内华达州,人们似乎已变得更为谨慎。摩根大通银行维护的美国信用卡消费情况高频测量显示6月21日左右停止增长,备受关注的每周零售额数据自五月开始增长停滞。更不祥的是,劳动市场高频测量显示,小型企业的就业率再次下降。重蹈覆辙的风险不仅局限于美国。7月初,澳大利亚餐厅就餐人数骤减,与维多利亚新冠病毒突然大面积爆发同时发生。在病毒被消灭前,关于复苏只有一件事可以肯定:它将会是可变的。
注:
1. ominous:adj. 预兆的;恶兆的;不吉利的 suggesting that sth bad is going to happen in the future
2. relapse:n. 旧病复发 the fact of becoming ill/sick again after making an improvement
3. stamp out:杜绝 If you stamp something out, you put an end to it.
翻译组:
Ellie,女,金融硕士,经济学人粉丝
Alex,女,小研究员一枚,经济学人粉丝
Chao,男,爱读书思考的DPhil Candidate,TE粉丝
Brittany,女,会计金融美本,行业分析师,爱经济学人
校对组:
Chloe,女,翻译硕士,经济学人忠实读者
Emily,女,食物链底端金融民工,经济学人粉丝
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观点|评论|思考
本次感想
Zihan,男,对冲基金,大数据工程师
首先让我们来看看失业率,以美国的失业率为代表:美国在四月的时候失业率接近了15%。这个历史的高点意味着严峻的债务问题。然而,美联储利用打印钞票和经济援助的方式去去解决了部分债务的堆积。而从4月起到6月,失业率大幅下降。如果没有工作了,自然就没有了消费。没有钱要怎么消费?
谈到了失业,必然会谈到倒闭。疫情影响下很多企业都关门了。我们看下一些有代表性的。Whitening Petroleum (7.6 Billion estimated asset) 在4月1日的时候提出了重组公司。
Diamond Offshore Drilling和其他几家与原油挂钩的公司也陆陆续续的出现了资金链中断。CBD产业在早期被重创。实体的零售业如J.C. Penney也难逃一劫。而在这期间,虽然航空公司拿到了大量的政府补助,但这依然不能拯救所有的航空公司。
五月末,Latam和Hert也都出现了资金问题,难以独立运营。这两家的体量尤其巨大。
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