原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491274&idx=1&sn=4b367cf45beb2dd85c7596d7d5866e85&chksm=fba04d6dccd7c47b4b62c94d876fc0c8ba3a45de621d126e0bc5b777547dbb2442a384967c0e#rd
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导读
感谢思维导图作者
Tracy,女,设计爱好者,推理烧脑粉
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Don’t carry flag-carriers
拒绝帮扶国家航空公司
英文部分选自经济学人20200801期Leaders版块
Airlines
航空公司
Don’t carry flag-carriers
拒绝帮扶国家航空公司
The industry can rebound leaner and greener-so long as governments stop favouring incumbents
只要政府不再支持现有航空公司,航空业就能振兴,变得更加精益、环保
To see the damage from covid-19 to aviation, look up. Where once a criss-cross of vapour trails told of holidaymakers heading for the sun or executives keeping businesses on track, the wide yonder is now a brilliant blue. This year nearly 5bn passengers might have been expected to take to the skies, but the actual number is likely to be only half as big. A fragile recovery is susceptible to new waves of infection. Britain’s imposition this week of a quarantine on passengers returning from Spain is the latest setback. Traffic may not return to 2019 levels until 2024.
要了解新冠疫情对航空业造成的损失,请抬头看——曾经纵横交错的飞机尾迹,记录下度假的人们前往阳光胜地、高管们为商务奔波的行程,而现在那片广阔的天空只剩下一片湛蓝。今年,原预计大约有50亿乘客乘坐飞机,但实际人数可能只有一半。勉强恢复的航空业极其脆弱,很容易受到新一波感染的影响。本周英国对西班牙返英的乘客强行隔离便是最近的一次挫折。可能直到2024年,航空业才能恢复到2019年的水平。
When it does rebound, the twin priorities should be to put the industry on a sounder financial footing, and to make flying less polluting. For both objectives the way forward is the same: to loosen incumbents’ grip on the skies.
待到航空业实际恢复,应当优先考虑两个目标:一是要确保航空业拥有更坚实的财务基础;二是减少飞行污染。这两个目标的推进方向是一致的:放开现有航空公司对天空的控制。
Start with carbon emissions. The dramatic declines this year are a distraction because as people resume flying, emissions will start to rise again. Neither should the industry’s sorry financial state today relieve it of recent pressure to decarbonise in the future. For many years aviation mostly had a free pass when it came to regulations of the type that forced carmakers to clean themselves up. Before the pandemic that had been changing. Some airlines had begun to worry about their reputations as “flight shame” raised awareness of how travelling by air accelerated global warming. Aircraft-makers were starting to plan the next generation of cleaner planes.
先看碳排放。今年碳排放量的急剧下降是个假象,因为随着人们恢复飞行,排放量将再次上升。面对未来脱碳的压力,航空业当前并不能松懈,眼下糟糕的财务状况也不能成为借口。多年来,法律法规迫使汽车行业变得清洁环保,却对航空行业睁一只眼闭一只眼大开绿灯。此次大流行之前,这一态势已经有所变化。由于“航空之耻”提高了人们对乘飞机旅行加速全球变暖的认识,一些航空公司开始担忧它们的声誉。飞机制造商正在筹备下一代更清洁的飞机。
注:
Flight shame: 来自于瑞典语Flygskam,字面意思是“飞行耻辱”。该运动阻止人们减少碳排放以阻止气候变化。
The question is how an industry whose finances are in tatters can make the vast investments and the huge technological leap required for net-zero-emissions flying. Bail-outs are the wrong answer. Only 30 airlines were profitable before the crisis and rescues will keep failing carriers alive. Some green strings are attached to rescue deals—a recognition of the changing mood—but they may not outweigh the zombifying effects of lavish rescue packages. Lufthansa’s €9bn ($9.8bn) bail-out allows it to buy 80 new fuel-efficient planes, but it took more money than it needed to preserve its position as a global airline. France’s aerospace bail-out includes €1.5bn to develop zero-emission planes and obliges airlines not to fly shorter routes between French cities that are served by trains. The exception? Feeder airports for Air France’s Paris hub. America’s airlines, showered with federal subsidies for decades, have trousered $25bn.
现在的问题是,一个财务状况千疮百孔的行业如何才能进行大规模投资并且实现净零排放飞行所需的技术飞跃。紧急援助是一个错误的答案。新冠肺炎造成危机前,只有30家航空公司能够盈利,而经济援助将使濒临破产的航空公司继续生存。救助协议中附加了一些绿色条款——顺应形势变化——但这可能无法抵消慷慨的救助计划所带来的僵尸效应。德国汉莎航空(Lufthansa)获得的90x亿欧元(合98亿美元)救助资金,可以使其购买80架新型节油飞机,但为了保住其全球航空公司的地位,该公司所花费的资金远远超过所需。法国对航空业的救助计划包括15亿欧元用于开发零排放的飞机,并要求航空公司不得在有火车通勤的法国城市之间飞短途航线。有一个例外就是法航在巴黎中心的支线机场(不受此约束)。几十年来,美国的航空公司得到了大量的联邦政府补贴,目前已获得的补贴数额达250亿美元。
注:
Feeder airports: small airports that bring passengers to a hub airport for transfer支线机场
These efforts to keep incumbent airlines flying threaten to prevent bolder carriers from expanding. Waivers on airport-slot rules will further hamper new entrants. Regulators around the world suspended use-it-or-lose-it rules for the summer to help stricken carriers. Incumbents want an extension to cover the winter, too. But if slots cannot be reallocated, rivals will be constrained. In Europe agile, low-cost carriers like Wizz Air are rightly calling for slot-blocking to end.
这些维持现有航空公司运营的努力会阻碍更敢于冒险的航空公司的扩张。对机场起降时刻规则的免除将进一步阻碍市场的新进入者。在这个夏季,世界各地的监管机构暂停了“不用就作废”的规定,以帮助受挫的航空公司。现有的航空公司希望这一规定也能够延长至整个冬季结束。但如果起降时刻安排不能够进行重新分配,现有航空公司的竞争对手们将受到限制。在欧洲,像匈牙利威兹航空等这些灵活、低成本的航空公司正在适宜地呼吁结束对机场起降时刻安排的封锁。
注:
1. use it or lose it rule: More employers are implementing the “use it or lose it” rule, which requires the employee to forfeit any unused vacation days they’ve accrued at the end of the year. They can’t cash out or roll it over to the following year. 公司实施的“不用就作废”的规定,员工积累的假期到年底不用完就丧失了,而不能转成现金补偿或延续到下一年。此处指的是“航空起降权”
2. 航空起降权:像纽约肯尼迪机场,伦敦希思罗机场,巴黎戴高乐机场以及德国法兰克福和慕尼黑机场,都是大受乘客和航空公司欢迎的起降地。这类国际机场都很繁忙,然而跑道数量却是有限的。每一架飞机起降都需要占用跑道和时间(两个起飞或者落地或者起落飞机之间为了安全都要保持一定的间隔),所以一个机场每天所能承载的航班数量是非常有限的。如果航空公司拿到时刻又放弃的话,再想拿到就很困难了。有些航空公司为了留住起降权,甚至不惜飞机空飞,也要占领跑道。比如英国第三大航空公司bmi为保留在希思罗机场的起降权,就曾以近乎 “空飞”的方式飞行。这种空驶客机就被称为“幽灵航班”。
If the industry is in the deep-freeze, it will slow the development of clean aeroplanes. Airbus has a goal of developing such an aircraft by 2035, whether using renewable fuels, electricity or hydrogen power, but the aerospace giants need to be sure that they will have a thriving market if they are to invest in them. Long industry lead times mean that Airbus will have to make firm plans in the next couple of years and Boeing will have to decide whether to respond soon after (see article).
如果航空业陷入深度的冰封期,清洁能源飞机的发展将会减速。空中客车公司的目标是无论使用可再生燃料、电力还是氢动力,到2035年要研发出这样的飞机,但是航空巨头们需要确定,如果要投资研发这些飞机,它们将会有一个繁荣的市场。较长的行业生产前置期意味着空客将不得不在未来几年内制定明确的计划,而波音公司也必须很快决定是否做出回应。
注:
Lead time: the time between starting and completing a production process从投产至完成生产间隔的时间;订货交付时间
Just as easyJet and Ryanair, now both huge airlines, took advantage of a glut of cheap aeroplanes after 9/11 and the deregulation of European airspace to expand rapidly, so a dynamic airline industry searching for new ways to grow would require new aircraft, encouraging Airbus and Boeing to make air travel greener. As well as setting back the industry, cosseting the old guard will do more damage to the planet.
正如易捷航空(easyJet)和 瑞安航空(Ryanair)两家航空公司巨头,曾利用911事件后供应过剩的廉价飞机和欧洲领空管制的放松迅速扩张那样,一个充满活力的航空业需要新的飞机来寻找新动能,这将鼓励空客和波音公司的飞机更加绿色环保。偏爱那些现有的老牌公司不仅会会使行业倒退,还会对地球造成更大的破坏。
注:
1. Glut: a situation in which there is more of sth than is needed or can be used供应过剩
2. Cosset: to treat sb with a lot of care and give them a lot of attention, sometimes too much宠爱;溺爱;娇惯
翻译组:
Melody,女,咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工,经济学人粉丝儿
Mai, 男,经济学博士,世界那么大,我想活得久一点
校对组:
Neil, 男,外贸民工,经济学人铁粉
Wesley,男,英语老师,经济学人铁粉
Hannah,女,英语教书匠,经济学人粉丝
Carole,女,经济硕士,在成为经济学人铁粉的路上
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观点|评论|思考
本次感想
Vincent 男,狱警,电子与法学双硕,爱好诗歌与哲学
放之诸多行业皆准,不为新兴者重重设障,反而能获得源源不断进步的可能。唯有舒伸是神的。“当燃烧的沉默毁去边界/风的孩提/云的孩提/你们可知道稻田怎样被新穗所抓住/我怎样被故事/河流怎样被两岸/两岸怎样被行人/行人怎样被龙舌兰的太阳//花朵破泥墙而出/我就舒伸/因为只剩下舒伸是神的/就舒伸/向十万里,千万里/十万里,千万里的恐惧”因循记忆而往,叶威廉的诗,忘记部分文字而记得意境。当你等候台风过境时的心情,雨水迟迟未到,时间似也凝滞了,可即便雨大到下到碗里,亦有种笃然的心闲气定。
神性之外是什么。秋刀鱼被一根世俗的竹签串起,横卧在时代的烤架之上,隐忍穿肠而过。它始终保持着与脊背弧度相应的想象,淬火中的形而上学。我们知道照搬从前的决策行不通,可往往是,我以为能够绕过你另辟蹊径,可所踏皆是你的足印。似乎依吾辈的智量,说是凭历史经验实则深陷于某种积习,一个时代人共有的“集体无意识”。对于锐意创新者,需要品质齐备,即必先有远见和决心,以及独自上路形单影只时的勇气,而后才有将身家付于命运一决的可能,就你所能设想到的而言理应如此。这就好像说到人类进步的问题,有说法是人类进步没有捷径,唯有审慎的心态和阳光的博弈,这是好的想法,可谁知道呢。
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