经济学人财经 || 为何越南一直是全球主义者和前沿市场投资者的宠儿?

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491175&idx=1&sn=63482839711f5cef083285683a49ed51&chksm=fba04dc0ccd7c4d660c2573fac3ddc09bc7ea7607798549a87fd782b46e8416783992fcfdcae#rd

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导读

感谢思维导图作者
Jerry,男,金融专业研究生,经济学人铁粉

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听力|精读|翻译|词组

Lotus esprit
莲花精灵
英文部分选自经济学人20200718期Finance版块
Buttonwood
梧桐树专栏

Lotus esprit
莲花精灵

注:Lotus esprit 莲花精灵
The Lotus Esprit (es-pree) is a sports car that was built by Lotus in the United Kingdom between 1976 and 2004, as well as a future release in 2014. The silver Italdesign concept that eventually became the Esprit was unveiled at the Turin Motor Show in 1972 as a concept car, and was a development of a stretched Lotus Europa chassis.
出产于21世纪初,但它的的设计还延续了上世纪70年代跑车设计流行的楔形设计。1972年在都灵(Turin)车展上作为一种风格理念展出后70年代开始投产;今天它作为世界上最好的超级跑车之一被世人所认可。

Why Vietnam remains a darling of globalists and frontier-market investors
为何越南一直是全球主义者和前沿市场投资者的宠儿?

At the start of February, as the spread of a deadly virus in China became more threatening, Vietnam closed the border. Truckers could no longer ferry components and raw materials from China to local factories. This was a problem for Samsung, a South Korean hardware giant, which manufactures most of its handsets in Vietnam. It had just unveiled two new smartphones in America. It did not want to delay production. So it began to airlift vital parts from China.

二月初,由于新冠疫情在中国的传播愈发危险,越南关闭了边境。卡车司机无法再将中国生产的零件和原材料运输到越南当地工厂,这给韩国硬件巨头三星公司出了难题,因其大部分手机都是在越南生产。而三星又刚在美国发布了两款新智能手机,因不愿延误生产它便开始从中国空运重要部件。

注:
1. 
ferry: If a vehicle ferries people or goods, it transports them, usually by means of regular trips between the same two places. 运送
Eg. Every day, a plane arrives to ferry guests to and from Bird Island Lodge.
每天,一架飞机到达以运送进出鸟岛宾馆的客人。
2. airlift: If people, troops, or goods are airlifted somewhere, they are carried by air, especially in a war or when land routes are closed. 空运
Eg.The injured were airlifted to a hospital in Dayton.
伤员被空运到代顿的一所医院。

The story is telling on two counts. Vietnam was swift in containing the spread of covid-19, with a fairly intrusive track-and-isolate strategy—the kind that only a one-party state may be able to implement. Its economy suffered, but has bounced back more sharply than most. It is one of just a few dozen countries where gdp is likely to grow this year. The story also underscores Vietnam’s status as a favoured venue for foreign direct investment (fdi). It is an established place for clothesmakers to set up. More recently it has become a key link in technology supply chains.

这个故事主要表达了两方面的意义。其一,越南采取具有相当强硬的跟踪隔离策略,迅速遏制了新冠病毒的传播,而该策略只有一党国家才有可能执行。其二,越南经济受创,但比绝大多数国家反弹得都要快,是今年GDP有望增长的为数不多的几个国家之一。该故事也凸显了越南作为外国直接投资青睐对象的地位。它是服装制造商建厂的金牌选地。最近,它还成为了科技供应链中的重要一环。

注:
underscore: If something such as an action or an event underscores another, it draws attention to the other thing and emphasizes its importance. 突出显示强调
Eg.The Labour Department figures underscore the shaky state of the economic recovery.
劳工部的数字突出显示了经济复苏的不稳定。

Vietnam is not just a darling of multinational firms. It is also beloved of investors in “frontier markets”, at the farthest edge of the equity universe. Such investors have few rags-to-riches economic stories to buy into. Vietnam looks like one of the more reliable ones. Indeed it is proving to be something of an each-way bet on globalisation. A big winner from the growth of world trade in recent decades, it is now a beneficiary from the geopolitical fallout from that growth.

越南不仅仅是跨国企业的宠儿,同时也是“前沿市场”投资者们的心头好,前沿市场处于股票世界的最边缘。这类投资者基本不太相信白手起家的经济“童话”,但越南却是显得最为可靠的市场之一。它确实为全球化投资提供了多方下注的选择(既可能“中大奖”,就算失利也不会有太大损失)。作为近几十年世界贸易增长的大赢家,越南现在还是该增长所带来的地缘政治影响的受益者。

注:
1. rags-to-riches 贫穷到富裕的;白手起家的
2. fallout
n. (核爆炸或核事故后的)辐射微尘,放射性尘降;(不良)后果,副作用,余波;(工业事故或生产过程中产生的)空气悬浮物,浮尘
egalmost as dramatic as the financial scale of the mess is the growing political fallout.

Not so long ago Vietnam was one of the world’s poorest countries. In 1986 it launched its doi moi (“renovation”) reforms, which allowed for a greater role for market forces and the private ownership of enterprises. The economy was opened up to foreign trade and capital. Its low wage costs were an advantage, but hardly a unique one. So Vietnam also offered generous tax breaks to foreign companies that went there.

不久之前,越南还是全球最贫穷的国家之一。1986年,越南发动了“革新”(doi moi)改革,允许市场力量和企业私有制发挥更大作用。自此,其经济为海外贸易和资本打开了大门。越南的低人力成本是其优势,但并不是其独有的优势,因此越南还为本国的海外企业提供了慷慨的税收优惠政策。

More recently a stable economy has added to its appeal, says Luong Hoang of Viet Capital Securities in Hanoi. The central bank has kept the dong fairly steady against the dollar. Stricter limits have been imposed on bank credit. Inflation has settled in the low single digits. Vietnam has further opened up to trade. It joined the World Trade Organisation in 2007. It has since signed deals with Japan and South Korea, two of the bigger investors in Vietnam. Last month it ratified one with the eu. And the FDI keeps rolling in. There have been biggish investments from China, Hong Kong and Singapore this year. It is the go-to place for the sort of production that has become too costly in China. It is also a refuge for companies that want to limit their entanglement in the Sino-American trade-and-tech battle.

河内越南资本证券驻的朗晃(Luong Hoang)表示,最近,稳定的经济增加了越南的吸引力。央行保持越南盾对美元汇率的稳定。银行信贷受到愈加严格的限制。通货膨胀率维持在个位数的低位。越南并进一步扩大了贸易开放。2007年,越南加入世界贸易组织,此后与越南最大的投资者日本和韩国签署了协议。上个月,它正式批准了一项与欧盟的协议,外国直接投资便源源不断地涌入。今年,中国大陆、香港和新加坡都对其注入了大量投资。鉴于在中国的生产成本越来越高,越南成了(替代)首选。对于那些不想在中美贸易和技术战中过多纠缠的公司,越南也成了“避难所”。

注:
1. Viet Capital SecuritiesViet Capital Securities is the leading investment bank in Vietnam. The investment banking team provides IPO and M&A advisory services, is 25-strong and growing, and advises on a range of sell-side and buy-side transactions across a number of sectors from its headquarters in HCMCHCMC, Ho Chi Minh City,胡志明市).
2. RatifyWhen national leaders or organizations ratify a treaty or written agreement, they make it official by giving their formal approval to it, usually by signing it or voting for it. 批准 (条约或书面协议)
3. FDIA foreign direct investment (FDI) is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country into business interests located in another country. Generally, FDI takes place when an investor establishes foreign business operations or acquires foreign business assets in a foreign company. However, FDIs are distinguished from portfolio investments in which an investor merely purchases equities of foreign-based companies.外国直接投资
4. BiggishSomething that is biggish is fairly big. 颇大的 [非正式]
5. RefugeA refuge is a place where you go for safety and protection, for example from violence or from bad weather. 避难所收容所

There is an irony here. Vietnam’s economic strategy looks much as China’s once did: a lot of fdi; export-led growth; a steady climb up the value chain from textiles to tech. It is also prone to some of China’s vices, including a nexus of corruption, real-estate deals and bad debts. Still, Vietnam has attributes that once made investing in emerging markets so enticing and globalisation such a persuasive creed: a fast-growing economy, rapid urbanisation, improving infrastructure and an expanding middle class. Its array of listed companies—from banks and logistics firms to retailers and steelmakers—allows investors to gain exposure to these trends.

这里有一定的讽刺意味。越南的经济战略看起来很似中国的老路:大量的外国直接投资;出口导向型增长;价值链从纺织向科技稳步攀升。同样也容易出现一些中国的类似问题,包括腐败、房地产交易和坏账。尽管如此,越南拥有令新兴市场投资变得如此诱人,令全球化变为如此有说服力的特点:经济高速增长、城市化快速发展、不断改善的基础设施和不断扩大的中产阶级。越南一系列上市公司——从银行和物流公司到零售商和钢铁制造商——使投资者有机会从这些发展趋势中获利。

注:
1. Irony Irony is a subtle form of humour that involves saying things that are the opposite of what you really mean. 讽刺
2. be prone to:易于……;有……的倾向
3. Vice:恶习,缺点
4. NexusA nexus is a connection or series of connections within a particular situation or system. 关联 [正式] [usu with supp] nexus of 一组,一系列
5. Attribute:属性,特质
6. Creed:A creed is a set of beliefs, principles, or opinions that strongly influence the way people live or work. 信条 [正式]

All this sounds lovely. But there is a catch. Vietnam imposes foreign-ownership limits on many home-grown companies. This is in large part why it is classed by msci, an index provider, as a “frontier” market, not an “emerging” one. A foreign investor who wants a stock that has reached the limit must buy from another foreigner. These off-exchange trades can take weeks to be arranged and approved, says Andrew Brudenell of Ashmore, a fund manager. A handful of stocks attract hefty price premiums. Shares in Mobile World, an electronics-cum-grocery retailer, recently changed hands among foreigners at a 51% premium to the on-exchange price, according to Viet Capital Securities.

以上所有听起来都很美好,但也存在一个问题。越南对许多本土公司施加了外资所有权限制。这就解释了为什么指数提供商MSCI将越南归类为“前沿”市场而非“新兴”市场。外国投资者如果想获得已达外资所有权限制公司的股份则必须向别的外国投资者购买。安石公司(Ashmore)的基金经理安德鲁·布鲁德内尔(Andrew Brudenell)表示,这些场外交易可能需要花费数周的时间来安排和申批。少数股票吸引了高额的价格溢价。根据越南资本证券,越南手机零售商移动世界(Mobile World)的股票最近在外国投资者手中易手,转手交易溢价51%。

注:
1. 外资所有权控制:外资所有权控制是指东道国通过行政、法律和经济手段限制外国资本在合资经营企业中所占的股权份额。实行所有权控制的国家多是发展中国家,其目的在于通过当地资本参与,对投资企业经营活动进行控制,弥补当地与外资竞争的力量不足,防止其出现受外资控制或操纵的不良后果。在所有权控制中有这样几种形式: (1) 允许外资持少数股权;(2) 允许外资与当地资本各占半数股权;(3) 规定当地资本和外资各占49%的股权,另2%的股权为控制,由第三方掌握;(4) 允许外资占多数股权,但不能独资经营。信息来源:
https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%A4%96%E8%B5%84%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E6%9D%83%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6/22498424?fr=aladdin
2. MSCI指数
“MSCI国家指数由摩根士丹利资本国际公司(MSCI)收集每个上市公司的股价、发行量、大股东持有量、自由流通量、每月交易量等数据,并将上市公司按全球行业分类标准(GICS)进行分类,在每一个行业以一定的标准选取60%市值的股票作为成份股,选取标准包括规模(市值)、长期短期交易量、交叉持股情况和流通股数量。由于摩根士丹利资本国际公司先划分行业,再从行业中选择股票,这样保证了指数组合中各行业都有相对固定比例的股票,使得指数具有较强的行业代表性。信息来源:
https://baike.baidu.com/item/MSCI%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0/7380821
3. Mobile World Investment Corp成为越南最大的手机卖场和最大的上市公司之一,是越南收入和税后净利润最高的零售商,该公司现在的市值为17亿美元,于20145月上市。拥有1300多家手机零售店和700多家消费电子产品商店覆盖全国63个省市。到2019年为止,公司经营着“thegioididong”手机零售连锁、“Dien May Xanh”(“Tran Anh”)消费电子零售连锁、“Bach Hoa Xanh”杂货食品零售连锁、“Vuivui.com”电子商务平台。信息来源:
https://www.jianshu.com/p/3b48027ca05f

The trade-oriented nature of Vietnam’s model means it is at the mercy of events elsewhere. However well it has handled the pandemic, there will be nerves about rising infections in America, its biggest export market. The government has dusted off infrastructure plans and relaxed land-use rules. Last month it approved a new $9.3bn tourist resort. Foreign investors, naturally, have a piece of that. 

以贸易模式主导的越南也就意味着会受到其他国家事件的牵制。不管越南处理新冠疫情如何优秀,其最大的出口市场美国的疫情感染率上升始终让人感到不安。越南政府已重启基础设施计划并放宽了土地使用法规。上个月,政府批准了一个价值93亿美元的旅游度假区新项目,外国投资者自然也要分一杯羹。


1at the mercy of ...支配下,任由...摆布
2Dust off: 重新使用;弄掉...灰尘

翻译组:
Martina,女,爱电影爱生活,爱金融经济
Vivifang,女,外币债券交易员,经济学人粉丝
Summer,女,QE在职,梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯
Ashley,女 ,金融硕士,爱宠物 爱英语,爱旅游,经济学人粉丝

校对组:
Chloe,女,翻译硕士,经济学人忠实读者
Emily,女,食物链底端金融民工,经济学人粉丝


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想
Alex,女,小研究员一枚,经济学人粉丝
市场调节和宏观调控:是敌?是友?
发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,是市场经济最基本的要求。然而,疫情来临之时,市场这只看不见的手,果然很瞎。

如果没有行政手段抑制口罩价格,那么一盒200元的口罩也将一罩难求;如果没有法律手段加强封城管控,那么按照目前的人口密度一千万的感染也是情理之中;如果没有经济手段刺激消费和投资,那么随着缓和的疫情,还会有干瘪的口袋。不管怎么看待国家的宏观调控:支持也好,存疑也罢。在这个特殊的时期,政府这只看得见的手,确实抚慰了人心。

更有意思的是,不止今天的疫情,漫漫历史长河中,只要到了危急存亡之秋,一个强有力的国家以及他的指挥者总能成为聚光灯下的焦点。1929年的美国金融危机,靠的是罗斯福新政恢复经济,也让凯恩斯国家资本主义走上了历史的舞台中央;上个世纪七十年代的韩国也是被朴槿惠的父亲朴正熙以军政一体的方式统治了近二十年,从积贫积弱的国家创造了汉江奇迹,成为了亚洲四小龙。更不要提20世纪,那些利用五年规划,发展工业化的社会主义国家们。

有时候,我们可能会疑问,这些是不是说明国家的分配胜过自由的买卖,其实不然。与其放大他们的经济结果,不如想想他们背后的原因。金融危机的美国、动荡的韩国、贫穷的社会主义国家和战时的各国,需要的不是空着肚子的民主先生,而是集中力量办成一件大事  ---- 吃饱饭睡好觉。所以人性本恶中的自私、趋利和盲目在这个时期是绝对不需要的,必须依靠人性本善中的奋斗、奉献才能实现这件大事。与其说是政府的宏观调控帮助了人民,不如说是千千万万的人民牺牲了小我成就了大我。

而当大我成就之时,也应当是还富小我之日。政府这只看得见的手总会落幕,那时候,市场那只看不见的手,会在每份精心制作的简历里,每顿滚着辣油的火锅里,每条波动的K线图里,和我们招手。


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