经济学人商业 || 恰似1999年的狂欢

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491508&idx=1&sn=6e5fd2593048b4b6283c44c47fe9a587&chksm=fba04c13ccd7c50598a1aa9d04bcd85005814a54c5c81f31064232bb682d61d69ca865a438dd#rd

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导读


感谢思维导图作者

Hikali,女,准爱岛异术家,用力生活


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听力|精读|翻译|词组

Partying like it’s 1999

恰似1999年的狂欢

英文部分选自经济学人20200822期Business版块

Technology listings

科技企业上市


Partying like it’s 1999

恰似1999年的狂欢


Initial public offerings are back in Silicon Valley amid the pandemic, after a fashion

疫情之下,IPO跌跌撞撞,重返硅谷


注:

After a fashion: in a sufficient but rudimentary or unimpressive manner/in an inadequate or incomplete way 勉强


The IPO is dead, long live the IPO. When the pandemic hit in March, initial public offerings, particularly those by technology startups, were predicted to be among the early victims. After all, who wants to go public in a once-in-a-century crisis?


IPO已矣,IPO永世。三月,新冠病毒来袭时,人们预测,科技初创企业的IPO首当其冲,成为第一批牺牲品。毕竟,谁会在百年一遇的灾难来临时头铁着去上市呢?


注:The IPO is dead, long live the IPO

源自The King is dead, long live the King


Quite a few people, it turns out. In the past couple of months IPOs, which all but dried up until late May, have come back with a vengeance in America. None of Silicon Valley’s recent and upcoming listings rivals that of Ant Group. The payments affiliate of Alibaba, an online giant, wants to raise a record $30bn in China by October, which could value the firm at around $200bn. But America’s technology startups have brought in $10bn so far this year (see chart 1)—and there is more to come. On August 19th Airbnb, which rents homes to travellers, filed for an IPO. Other privately held “unicorns” reportedly ready for public pastures include Snowflake Computing, which makes cloud software; DoorDash, which delivers food; and Instacart, which delivers groceries. Add Palantir, a cryptic data-management firm preparing for a direct sale of existing shares in public markets, and the latest combined valuation of these five is $80bn, according to Pitchbook, a data provider. Even if they float only a portion of their shares, billions-worth of fresh tech stocks will soon trade publicly.


事实证明,猛士还是挺多的。过去几个月里,美国的IPO越来越少,但在五月底却气势汹汹,卷土重来。硅谷近来甚至不久后的IPO都无法与蚂蚁集团相提并论。蚂蚁集团是互联网巨头阿里巴巴旗下的在线支付业务,意图于十月前在中国进行前所未有的300亿美元融资。如此一来,公司估值便可能达到2000亿美元左右。但同样是今年,美国的科技初创企业目前为止已筹集到了100亿美元(见表一),未来还会更多。8月19日,民宿网站爱彼迎申请IPO。据报道,其他许多私人控股的独角兽企业已经做好了上市准备,其中有云端软件公司Snowflake Computing;外卖公司DoorDash;在线杂货配送平台Instacart。此外,神秘的数据处理公司Palantir也正准备通过直接挂牌的方式上市。(注:传统的IPO需要等待限售期的解禁)数据提供商Pitchbook的信息显示,这五家公司的最新估值合计800亿美元。即便这些公司只发行一部分股份,价值数十亿的新科技股也将很快出现在公开市场。


注:

1. All but: 几乎,差一点 = just about/pretty much

2. Cryptic adj. 神秘的

3. Float: v. to sell shares in a company or business to the public for the first time (公司或企业)发行(股票)上市 The company was floated on the stock market in 2011. Shares were floated at five pounds.

4. InStacart https://www.instacart.com/


This flurry of activity has not reached dotcom-bubble territory from the turn of the century, when dozens of startups floated each month. But there is a whiff of “irrational exuberance” in the air, detects Lise Buyer, who has watched technology stocks since the heady late 1990s and now helps startups with IPOs at Class V Group, an advisory firm. When Duck Creek, an insurance-tech company, went public on August 14th, it closed nearly 50% higher. BigCommerce, an online-shopping platform which floated a week earlier, saw its shares “pop” by more than 200%.


这波上市潮没有像世纪之交那次演变成互联网泡沫,当时每个月几十家公司上市。但是丽丝拜耶(Lise Buyer)嗅到空气中夹杂着一丝非理性繁荣的气息。自令人陶醉的20世纪90年代末起,丽丝拜耶就在关注科技股,她目前任职于咨询公司Class V Group,帮助初创公司IPO。保险科技公司Duck Creek814日上市,收盘时股价上涨了近50%。一周前,电商平台BigCommerce上市,其股价暴涨逾200%


注:

1. A whiff of 一阵的气味/一点点 a whiff of perfume

2. Irrational exuberance 非理性繁荣


With the S&P 500 index of big American firms at an all-time high, never mind that covid-19 rages on, investors’ rationality is certainly up for debate (see Buttonwood). But for many startups, the desire to go public is perfectly rational, for two reasons.


随着美国大公司的标准普尔500指数处于历史高位,就算不考虑新冠疫情来势汹汹,投资者的理性程度也有待商榷。但对于很多初创公司来说,上市的愿望是完全理性的,原因有二。


The first has to do with the financial markets themselves. Venture capitalists who had been pouring billions into unlisted firms began to cool on frothy startups before the pandemic, after a few unicorn listings disappointed (Lyft and Uber) or collapsed (WeWork). At the same time, rock-bottom interest rates are pushing public capital to seek returns. As a result, stockmarket investors are ready to accept high valuations, says Lauren Cummings of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank and a leading underwriter of IPOs. “There is insatiable demand by public investors,” agrees Brian Feinstein of Bessemer Venture Partners, a venture-capital (VC) firm.


第一,与金融市场本身有关。几家独角兽上市企业要么表现令人失望(LyftUber)要么倒闭(WeWork)之后,风险投资人(已经在未上市企业注入了数十亿资金)对夸夸其谈的初创公司的投资热情在新冠肺炎之前就开始降温。与此同时,降至谷底的利率也在推动公众资本寻求其他途径的回报。因此,投资银行摩根士丹利(IPO主要承销商)的劳伦·卡明斯(Lauren Cummings)表示,股市投资者已经准备好接受高估值。风险投资公司贝塞麦(Bessemer )的布赖恩·费恩斯坦(Brian Feinstein)也表示赞同:公众投资者的需求是永远无法满足的


注:

1. Frothy adj.起泡的,华而不实的 frothy coffee/frothy smoothie/a frothy … industry/market (充满泡沫的某个行业or市场)

2. Insatiable adj.不知足的 an insatiable appetite/curiosity/thirst


Startups are keen to slake it before it dissipates. Many firms are therefore dusting off listing plans that were put on hold in the wake of the ride-hailing duds and the WeWork snafu. Their case is bolstered because—and this is the second reason for startups’ listing-lust—the pandemic has been a boon for many tech firms.


故而初创公司都渴望在投资者需求消失前抓住良机。为此,许多公司都在重启受LyftUberWeWork事件影响而被搁置的上市计划。这些上市计划得到了各方面的支持,因为新冠疫情已经成为许多科技公司的福音。这也是初创公司渴望上市的第二个原因。


注:

1.Slake v. to satisfy a desire 满足欲望,解渴 slake your thirst

2.Dissipate v. to gradually become weaker until it disappears 消散,消失 Eventually, his anger dissipated.

3.Dust off 抹去灰尘/重启

4.Dud n. a thing that is useless, especially because it does not workcorrectly 不中用的东西;废物

5.Snafu n. a situation in which nothing happens as planned 混乱局面 = chaos/disorder

6.Idiomin the wake of sth, following or as a result of something. 栗子:Nobody should act rashly in the wake of this report.


The five big platforms—Alphabet’s Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—have thrived as self-isolating consumers spend more time and money online, and firms splash out on cloud-computing services to enable remote working. On August 19th Apple briefly touched a market capitalisation of $2trn, the first American company to do so. Not-so-big tech, too, has benefited, including many companies that have recently gone public.


随着自我隔离的消费者在网上花费的时间和金钱越来越多,公司纷纷在云计算服务上大笔投入以实现远程工作,五大平台谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、脸书和微软得以蓬勃发展。819日苹果市值一度触及两万亿美元,成为美国第一家达到该市值的公司。规模不太大的的科技公司也受益颇丰,其中包括许多最近上市的公司。


注:

1. Splash out on 大笔花钱,在上挥霍 = splurge on/squander.. to do..

2. 关于“市值”的表达:

market value/market capitalization/capitalization/stock value


The pandemic has highlighted and sped up a fundamental shift towards digital businesses, says Sarah Cannon of Index Ventures, a VC firm. The trend will last for decades, she predicts. Markets concur. The tech-heavy Renaissance IPO Index, which includes most listers of the past two years, is up by more than 40% since January (see chart 2). Zoom, whose videoconferencing app has become ubiquitous amid lockdowns, has seen its share price rise fourfold since floating in April 2019; it is worth $78bn. CrowdStrike, a cyber-security firm which listed in June last year, has quadrupled in value since March.


风险投资公司指数创投(Index Ventures)的莎拉·坎农Sarah Cannon表示,新冠疫情凸显并加速了商业模式朝着数字化的根本性转变。她预测,该趋势将持续数十年。市场表现体现了这一观点。以科技股为主的复兴IPO指数(该指数包括了过去两年上市的大多数公司)自1月份以来上涨超过40%(见表2)。自20194月上市以来,Zoom的股价已经上涨了四倍,这家在疫情封锁期间变得尽人皆知的视频会议软件公司目前的市值达到了780亿美元。CrowdStrike是一家去年6月上市的网络安全公司3以来市值已翻了两番。


One thing the latest boom has done is highlight how unhappy startups and vc firms have grown with the current process of going public. It is cumbersome, with reams of paperwork, and can take more than a year. It is also pricey—and seen as too cosy for Wall Street. Investment banks’ fees alone eat up between 4% and 7% of a typical IPO’s proceeds, not counting lawyers and other advisers. Startups and vc firms point to big first-day pops as evidence that offerings are underpriced to give banks’ big investors a quick return. After all, those customers are regulars that must be kept sweet, whereas most startups only go public once.


近期的繁荣突显了初创公司和风投对现有上市流程的不满情绪日益增加。上市很繁琐,有大量的文书工作,可能需要花费一年多的时间。它的要价也很高,而且对华尔街来说这钱挣得太容易了。不包括律师和其他顾问的钱,单是投行的费用就占了一次典型IPO收益的4%7%。初创公司和风投以首日的大涨为由,指出发行价格定的太低了,这会给发行银行的大投资者带来快速回报。毕竟,这些客户都是必须讨好的常客,而大多数初创公司却只是上市一次的过客。


注:

1. Reams of 大量的reams of paperwork =piles of paperwork

2. someone sweet 讨好某人


Disaffection with the IPO process, combined with a renewed desire to go public, has led some firms to consider alternatives. One is a “direct listing” of the sort Palantir is pursuing, and which Spotify, a music-streaming service, and Slack, a corporate-messaging firm, have used to good effect. Asana, which sells web-based project-management software, may be another unicorn to take the direct route. Direct listings use an electronic auction by the stock exchange to get startups a fairer price for their shares than investment bankers might. But they do not allow firms to raise new money. As a result, they are an option only for cash-rich firms.


对于IPO流程的不满再加上重燃对于上市的渴望,这让一些公司开始考虑代替方案。其中一个代替方案就是Palantir所追求的直接上市, 音乐流媒体服务平台Spotify和办公通讯软件Slack都依靠这种方法取得了良好效果。售卖基于网络的项目管理软件Asana,也许会成为另一个采用直接上市的独角兽企业。直接上市通过证劵交易所电子拍卖的方式使得初创公司的股价比投机银行家可能给出的价格更加合理。但这种方案不允许公司筹集新的资金。因此,这种方案只是适合资金充裕的公司。


Another route that has gained prominence is the special-purpose acquisition company. These SPACs, as they are known for short, are shell firms that go public promising to buy one or more private businesses with the proceeds from the listing. The private business then fills up the listed shell through a reverse merger. SPACs have a dodgy history; many have underperformed the broader stockmarket. But the latest lot promise to fix the flaws while preserving the benefits, which include direct negotiations over the purchase price that can make deals faster and more predictable. From January to early August 60 SPACs went public, raising $22.5bn. In July Bill Ackman, a hedge-fund boss, launched a $5bn-7bn vehicle, the biggest so far.


另一个逐渐进入人们视野的方案是特殊目的收购公司。这些简称为SPAC 的空壳公司公开募股并承诺用上市收益收购一个或多个私营企业。随后,私营企业通过反向并购来填补上市的空壳。SPAC的历史满是污点。很多SPAC公司的表现跑输大盘。但是最近很多打算上市的SPAC承诺在保留收益的同时修复这些缺陷,其中就包括对于购买价格进行直接谈判,这样可以让交易更快更具可预测性。从1月到8月上旬,60SPAC公司上市, 筹集225亿美元。7月,对冲基金公司老板Bill Ackman推出了至今规模最大的、价值5070亿美元的投资工具。


注:

1. Special purpose acquisition company:特殊目的收购公司是一种投资基金,允许公共股票市场投资者投资私募股权交易,特别是杠杆收购

2. Underperform the market 跑输大盘 outperform the market 跑赢大盘


It is unclear if Silicon Valley will embrace SPACs wholeheartedly. The biggest tech firm to have used one is Nikola, a secretive zero-emission-lorry startup which now boasts a market capitalisation of about $16bn. Many entrepreneurs and their backers would resist letting their firms be sucked up into a shell. But SPACs have a place in tech world. On August 18th Kevin Hartz, an early investor in Airbnb and Uber, launched one. Ribbit Capital, a vc firm, is reportedly planning another.


硅谷是否会欣然接受SPAC公司尚不清楚。使用过SPAC策略的最大的科技公司是Nikola,一家低调的零排放货车初创公司,市值大约为160亿美元。许多企业家和他们的支持者反对让他们的公司被空壳公司并购。但是 SPAC 已经在科技领域占有一席之地。818日,Airbnb Uber的早期投资者Kevin Hartz推出了一项SPAC计划。据报道,风险投资公司 Ribbit Capital正在筹划另一项SPAC计划。


The IPO-industrial complex is not averse to direct listings or SPACs, even if they are less lucrative than the old-school ways. Bankers predict a diverse future of increasingly tailor-made flotations that, say, target specific investors and predetermine how long staff must hold on to their shares. As Greg Chamberlain of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, sums up, “Not all technology companies are the same. They have different objectives.” So long as startups want to cash in, as all ultimately do, they will need Wall Street to shepherd them through.


IPO公司群体并不反对直接上市或者SPAC方案,即便它们不如传统方法收益丰厚。银行家们预计,量身定做的上市(针对不同的投资者和不同持股的时间)将会有着更多样化的未来。正如摩根大通银行(JPMorgan Chase)的格雷格·张伯伦(Greg Chamberlain)总结的那样:并非所有的科技公司都是一样的他们有着不同的目标。和所有人的最终期望的一样,只要初创公司想着去捞钱,那他们将肯定需要华尔街来引导他们前进。


注:

Floatation n. 上市flotation on the stock exchange/stock-market flotation


翻译组:

Yao,男,不想做翻译的翻译学硕士

Megan, 女,外企民工,好想一身都是月

Sophie,女,HR让我做自己,券商带我看世界

Angela, 女,Northwestern本科在读,double major 数学哲学

校对组:

Li Xia, 我视英语为初恋,英语瞧我像备胎
VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者

Zoey,女,咨询行业,爱挠头的英文码字工


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者

朋友最近比较闲,问我有啥手游可以推荐的,花点钱没关系,关键得玩得刺激,有心跳的感觉。我想到了两款:同花顺和陌陌。

暂且放后者不表,我们先来聊聊同花顺。

我倒从来没炒过股,即便是在15年的6000多点,我最多也是给老婆些道听途说的建议买哪只股,其实那个时候买什么股都会涨,至于能不能赚钱就得看你什么时候离场了。自从同一年的暴跌之后老婆一怒之下就删掉了同花顺,至今还没重新安装上去。但这次似乎有点类似,我相信我的朋友能够在大跌之前离场,即便没走也大体上满足了他“玩得刺激、有心跳”的要求。

大一的时候我记得学校里最火爆的选修课就是讲股市的,全校最大的教室都被挤得水泄不通,由此可见向往暴富几乎是每个人的梦想。这门课也是我们全寝室兄弟们唯一不逃的课,可能是刚刚摆脱了高中的压抑生活,听老师胡吹猛吹便觉得厉害得不得了,五体投地的佩服,现在想来,年轻人的确是最好忽悠的一个群体了。印象里老师没讲过具体的技术,就聊了两件事:一是他的买卖收成,A股几乎就是他的提款机;第二件事就是到学期末课程快结束的时候推荐了两只股票(据说这是这门课的最终奥义了)。不记得后来这两只股票到底表现如何了,但是老师在期末推荐似乎也有一定的考量,毕竟过了一个假期后再会讲起推荐的股票到底赚了多少钱的同学总是少数,所以他的名气似乎一直被吹在空中,飘来荡去,成为了传奇。

其实那时候最好的投资还是买房子,如果我们寝室的兄弟们能缩衣节食,把生活费省下来交按揭,起码毕业后就翻了一倍不止,我记得那时候和平广场旁的小区刚刚建起来,大概四五千一方,不过也已经很贵了,多年后死党们聚会时都叹息不已,说可惜没这个眼光,否则砸锅卖铁也上了。

往往学股票的第一节的第一句话就告诉我们,股市是国家经济的晴雨表,我不知道现在的书上还敢不敢这么死皮赖脸得这么写上去了,但在我看来,似乎房价更加适合晴雨表这个象征意义,毕竟无论何时,我们的GDP都是一路向前,从来不掉价的。

群里的人偶尔会聊一两句有关股票的,一般都是在彰显自己看中的股票又涨了多少,一问几乎都只是看并没有买,或者只是模拟炒股。在谨小慎微的我的眼中,股票和彩票是没有区别的,都是以小博大的赌博罢了,当然我们家楼上也有天天做彩票K线图分析的大牛,数十年如一日,每天我们吃完饭去散步时总能遇见他胳肢窝上夹了份报纸,手上端了个茶杯,开始了一天的晚工,这不算是坏事,甚至是一件好事,也不吃喝嫖赌做坏事,安安单单、心甘情愿给人家送钱,而且还会一直开心地进行下去,一直做着他的zg梦,难道不好吗,我想没有人忍心叫醒他吧。

股票大概也是如此,小编据说前段时间赚了七八十万,我拍拍他的肩,喃喃了一句:这赚的钱是除掉了前些年亏的三百多万吗?他便默不作声转移话题了。(剧情需要,纯属虚构)

我想我可能有些刻薄了,应该鼓励他百尺竿头,更上一层楼。


4


愿景


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独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

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1.转发公众号译文到100人以上英语学习群或者朋友圈

2.回答三个问题(在公众号后台回复群规,请务必仔细阅读群规以及出现的三个问题)

3.加小编后做个简单的自我介绍,谢谢大家。