经济学人社论 || 我们如今的生活方式

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247490973&idx=1&sn=95882e760935858814e11df5ff2fd432&chksm=fba04e3accd7c72cc925e0cd321f12eb01b5ecc718126b5dff6a014fad326134cef2e3074ede#rd

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导读


感谢思维导图作者

Tracy,女,设计爱好者,推理烧脑粉


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听力|精读|翻译|词组

The way we live now

我们如今的生活方式

英文部分选自经济学人20200704Leaders版块

The pandemic

疫情大流行


The way we live now

我们如今的生活方式


Covid- 19 is yet to do its worst

新冠肺炎还未发展到最糟糕的时候


It is astonishing how rapidly the pandemic has spread, despite all the efforts to stop it. On February 1st, the day covid-19 first appeared on our front cover, the World Health Organisation counted 2,115 new cases. On June 28th its daily tally reached 190,000. That day as many new cases were notched up every 90 minutes as had been recorded in total by February 1st.


尽管人们采取了各种措施来阻止疫情蔓延,但其传播速度之快还是令人瞠目结舌。2月1日,新冠肺炎首次出现在本报的封面,世界卫生组织于当天统计出新增病例为2115例。6月28日,全球单日新增病例达19万。相当于那天每90分钟新增病例数与2月1日之前记录的总数一样多。


The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first. Some 10m people are known to have been infected. Pretty much everywhere has registered cases (Turkmenistan and North Korea have not, though, like Antarctica). For every country such as China and Vietnam, which seems to be able to contain the virus, there are more, in Latin America and South Asia, where it is raging. Others, including the United States, are at risk of losing control or, in much of Africa, in the early phase of their epidemic. Europe is somewhere in between.


世界并未经历第二波疫情,因为第一波从未结束。据悉,全球肺炎感染数字突破1000万大关。世界各地几乎都有确诊病例(不过,土库曼斯坦、朝鲜及南极洲至今尚未出现病例)。中国和越南等国家似乎能够控制住病毒了,而在拉丁美洲和南亚的很多国家,病毒仍在肆虐。包括美国在内的一些国家正面临失控的风险;而非洲的大部分地区正处于疫情的早期阶段;欧洲则介于两者之间。


The worst is to come. Based on research in 84 countries, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reckons that, for each recorded case, 12 go unrecorded and that for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes. Without a medical breakthrough, it says, the total number of cases will climb to 200m-600m by spring 2021. At that point, between 1.4m and 3.7m people will have died. Even then, well over 90% of the world’s population will still be vulnerable to infection—more if immunity turns out to be transient.


最坏的情况还在后头。基于84个国家的研究,麻省理工大学的一个团队认为,每有一例病例记录在案,就12例被遗漏;每统计两例新冠肺炎死亡病例,就有一例的死因被误判与新冠无关。该团队称,如果医学上没有突破,到2021年春季,病例总数将攀升至2亿至6亿。届时,将会有140万至370万人死去。即便如此,世界上将仍有超过90%的人口易受感染——如果免疫只是短时效的,情况会更糟。


The actual outcome depends on how societies manage the disease. Here the news is better. Epidemiologists understand how to stop covid-19. You catch it indoors, in crowds, when people raise their voices. The poor are vulnerable, as are the elderly and those with other conditions. You can contain the virus with three tactics: changes in behaviour; testing, tracing and isolation; and, if they fail, lockdowns. The worse a country is at testing—and many governments have failed to build enough capacity—the more it has to fall back on the other two. Good public health need not be expensive. Dharavi, a slum of 850,000 people in Mumbai, tamed an outbreak.


实际结果取决于社会如何应对这一疾病。一个好消息是,流行病学家们知道如何阻止新冠肺炎传播。在室内或在人群中,当人们提高嗓门的时候,你就可能感染。穷人、老人和有其他健康问题的人都是易感人群。国家可以通过三种策略遏制病毒:改变行为;检测、跟踪和隔离;如果前面这些未能奏效,封锁。一个国家在检测方面做得越糟糕(许多政府未能建立足够的检测能力),它就越需要依靠其他两种策略。良好的公共卫生不需要破费太多。达拉维是孟买一个拥有85万人口的贫民窟,控制住了疫情的爆发。


Treatments have improved, thanks to research and dealing with patients. Although mass vaccination is still months away at best , the first therapies are available. More is known about how to manage the disease—don’t rush to put people on respirators, do give them oxygen early. Better treatment helps explain why the share of hospital patients who went on to be admitted to intensive care fell in Britain from 12% at the end of March to 4% in mid to late May.


由于科学研究和临床经验的积累,治疗方法已经有所改进了。虽然大规模的疫苗接种至少也要等到数月之后,但现在初步的疗法是可行的。人们对如何控制该疾病有了更多的了解——不要急于上呼吸机,但要尽早给病人供氧。疗法的进步解释了为什么英国的病人进入重症监护的比例从3月底的12%下降到5月中下旬的4%。


And economies have adapted. They are still suffering, of course. J.P. Morgan, a bank, predicts that the peak-to-trough decline in the first half of the year in the 39 economies it follows will be around 10% of GDP. But workers stuck in Zoom hell have discovered that they can get a surprising amount done from home. In China Starbucks designed “contactless” ordering, cutting the time customers spend in its coffee shops. Supply chains that struggled now run smoothly. Factories have found ways to stagger shifts, shield staff behind plastic and change work patterns so that personal contact is minimised.


同时,经济也适应了目前的情况。当然,经济仍不景气。摩根大通银行预测,在今年上半年,它所关注的39个经济体的GDP从最高点到最低点的总跌幅将达到10%左右。尽管如此,在Zoom(注:一款线上会议软件)中苦苦挣扎的员工们惊喜地发现,他们在家里就能完成大量工作。在中国,星巴克设计了“无接触”配送,减少顾客在咖啡店里停留的时间。曾经陷入困境的供应链现在运行正常。工厂通过倒班、为员工提供隔断办公桌及改变工作模式等方式,尽量减少人员接触。


Now that nationwide lockdowns are done, governments can make sensible trade-offs—banning large indoor gatherings, say and allowing the reopening of schools and shops. Sometimes, as in some American states, they will loosen too much and have to reverse course. Others will learn from their mistakes.


既然全国性封锁已经结束,政府可以进行合理的取舍了,如禁止大型室内集会但允许学校和商店重新开放。就像美国部分州一样,有时政府会宽松过度,导致不得不重新收紧,而其他州会吸取它们的教训。


The problem is that, without a cure or a vaccine, containment depends on people learning to change their behaviour. After the initial covid-19 panic, many are becoming disenchanted and resistant. Masks help stop the disease, but in Europe and America some refuse to wear one because they see them as emasculating or, worse, Democratic. Thorough handwashing kills the virus, but who has not relapsed into bad old habits? Parties are dangerous but young people cooped up for months have developed a devil-may-care attitude. Most important, as the months drag on, people just need to earn some money. In the autumn, as life moves indoors, infections could soar.


问题在于,如果没有治疗方法或疫苗,病毒的遏制与否就取决于人们能否学会改变自身的行为习惯。早期的新冠恐慌褪去后,许多人逐渐好了伤疤忘了疼罩有助于阻挡病毒,但在欧美国家,一些人却不愿意佩戴。他们觉得戴口罩的人看起来弱不禁风,又或者Democratic(这后半句大家可以留言哈)。彻底地洗手也可以杀死病毒,然而随着疫情好转,谁又不是旧习难改呢?聚会有风险,但是被禁锢了数月的年轻人已经开始肆无忌惮了。最重要的是,数月过去了,人们需要赚钱。到了秋天,随着活动集中在室内,感染的数量可能会激增。


Changing social norms is hard. Just look at aids, known for decades to be prevented by safe sex and clean needles. Yet in 2018, 1.7m people were newly infected with hiv, the virus that causes it. Covid-19 is easier to talk about than aids, but harder to avoid. Wearing a mask is chiefly about protecting others; the young, fit and asymptomatic are being asked to follow tedious rules to shield the old and infirm.


改变社会规范很难,只需看看艾滋病就可知道这一点。数十年来,人们已经知道通过安全性行为、使用清洁针头即可预防艾滋病。然而,2018年依然新增170万例艾滋病病例。新冠病毒没有艾滋病那么难以启齿,但却更难预防。戴口罩的主要功能在于保护他人,年轻、健康、无症状的人被要求遵循冗杂的规范,以保护年迈体弱的人不被感染。


Changing behaviour requires clear communication from trusted figures, national and local. But many people do not believe their politicians. In countries such as America, Iran, Britain, Russia and Brazil, which have the highest caseloads, presidents and prime ministers minimised the threat, vacillated, issued bad advice or seemed more interested in their own political fortunes than in their country—sometimes all at once.


改变行为习惯需要国家和地方层面有公信力的人士进行清晰的沟通传播,但是很多人并不信任他们国家的政客。譬如在美国、伊朗、英国、俄罗斯和巴西这些感染数最高的国家,总统和首相或优柔寡断,或轻视疫情带来的威胁,或发表负面建议,或是比起国家安危更看重自己的政治命运——有时这些问题同时出现在领导者身上。


Covid-19 is here for a while at least. The vulnerable will be afraid to go out and innovation will slow, creating a 90% economy that consistently fails to reach its potential. Many people will fall ill and some of them will die. You may have lost interest in the pandemic. It has not lost interest in you. 


新冠疫情至少还会持续一段时间。易感人群将不敢出门,创新速度将会放缓,引发的九成经济状态将无法持续发挥经济潜能。很多人将会感染病毒,其中一些人会死亡。你可能已经对这场大流行不感兴趣了,但它并未对你失去兴趣。


翻译组:

Carole,女,经济硕士,在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

Melody,女,咨询搬砖逐渐熟练工,经济学人粉丝儿

 Mai,男,经济学博士,世界那么大,我想活得久一点


校对组:

Neil,  男,外贸民工,经济学人铁粉

Yo,女,种下过流星,立志不做大鸵鸟

Hannah,女,英语教书匠,经济学人粉丝

Desmond,男,即将读研,悬疑剧、恐怖片和三国杀爱好者


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者

明天就要考试了,有时候我会想,假如疫情严重到一定的程度,是不是我们现在为之努力的一切都将毫无意义:我们将不会去学习文化课知识,生存技巧将取而代之;我们将短时间内不会去追求风花雪月(应该也不会去相亲了吧),我们只会更加珍惜眼前的一切,我们的父母,我们的子女;我们可能也会抛弃掉辛勤努力的工作,以及那烦人的房贷,携着家人奔向深山老林、人迹罕至之所。因为我们都会在了解处境后的一瞬间明白,活着的意义是什么。有一个很经典的游戏:假如今天是你人生的最后一天,你会干些啥?也许对于当下地球上某些角落的某些人而言,这个游戏不幸地变成了需要面对的现实,这就太可怕了:首先假设的条件变成了现实,更可怕的是你还必须认真地去做这个游戏,而且只有一条命的机会,就好像暗黑里的专家模式一般,我们当然不可能都是小说或者电影里的主角一般,任凭环境再艰险、敌人再狡猾,终能守得云开见月明,现实的可怕是只要走错一步,我们就会灰飞烟灭。有人会放弃抵抗(总有人会放弃抵抗),选择相信某一个神,神会带给他美好的来生,所以这辈子是指望不上了。虽然有些鄙视这种人,但是这个办法也算是一种无法被证实好坏的办法,除非你能从那头回来,但据我所知,从古至今应该没人回来过。大部分人还是会垂死挣扎的,这是刻在我们骨子里的反应,所以无论是什么形式的挣扎,我们都不应该去评判,毕竟生存的挣扎是最底线的行为,是大自然赋予我们的权利。


幸好我不需要去真正面对这些,至少短时间内不需要,我还是要面对明后天的考试,焦虑如何填报志愿,焦虑考不上理想的大学是不是又该复读一年,比起那些糟心事来,这些不是什么大事了。


很多时候我总在假设一些困局,却想让自己能够在不断假设的困局中成功突围,我总是期盼能够找到那个突围点,可能是依靠某些巧合,或者是上天的恩赐,但总是以较小的概率来实现,毕竟大概率成功的困难我还是不屑假设的吧,所以我总是在自寻烦恼、自找忧愁。我明明是个近视眼,却能看清楚远方的危险,臆想出潜伏在深处的魔鬼,而瞧不见眼前的危殆:新冠疫情即是如此。我总是在幻想工作以后如何应对办公室里或者上级领导的尔虞我诈,能在其间闲庭信步,挥洒自如,却忘记了眼下迫在眉睫的高考。我就像一只刚刚出生的小狗,眼中只有那在天上翱翔的老鹰,心中充满了与之决斗的惊险场景,却忘记了如何行走脚下的道路。


其实我没有任何能力去改变周遭的环境,好的也好差的也罢,都像是狗笼的铁柱一般,牙齿是咬不动的,我只能呆呆地趴着,等待着饭菜的到来,而不是流浪在外,过着饱一顿饥一顿的日子,对我而言,这到底是好事还是坏事?


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愿景


打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

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