原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491434&idx=1&sn=05be7722d18505de443f360cdd36ed76&chksm=fba04ccdccd7c5dbef6204d2fc34ce53957b3fed62351563fd5f26ea4210e0755b93442316b4#rd
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感谢思维导图作者
Summer,女,QE在职,梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Economic convergence
经济趋同
英文部分选自经济学人20200815期财经版块
Economic convergence
经济趋同
Club class
新兴国家迎头追赶发达国家进行时
注:Club Class在飞机座位等级中为公务舱,介于头等舱和经济舱之间。此处指代那些介于发达国家和欠发达国家之间的新兴国家。
a class of air travel which is less luxurious than first class but more luxurious than economy class
A new study shows which emerging economies are catching up—and sheds light on some of the mysteries of economic growth
一项新研究表明了有哪些新兴经济体正在迎头赶上,并阐明了一些经济增长的奥秘
注:shed light on:阐明;使...清楚地显出
This awful year could, paradoxically, be a good one for what economists call convergence. This normally takes place when poor economies grow faster than rich ones, narrowing the income gap between them. This year will be a bit different. Few emerging markets will grow at all—perhaps China, Egypt and Vietnam. But because advanced economies will probably retreat even faster, the gap between them will narrow. In the pandemic, like a 400m race, the laurels go to whoever slows down least.
这糟糕的一年可能对经济学家提出的趋同假说来说反而是一个好年。趋同通常指的是穷国的经济增长速度快于富国的经济增速,从而缩小彼此之间的收入差距。今年却有所不同,甚至连新兴市场国家也几乎不会增长,或许只有中国、埃及和越南。但由于发达经济体经济衰退可能更快,因此两者之间的差距仍将缩小。疫情下的经济发展就如400米赛跑一样,胜利是属于后劲足的那些人。
The last time there was such a decisive growth gap between advanced and emerging economies was in 2013 (see chart 1). That was year of the “taper tantrum”, an emerging-market sell-off prompted by fears that America would slow its pace of monetary easing. It marked the end of a decade of heady emerging-market optimism best symbolised by the enthusiasm for the “BRICS”, an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs, which helped sell many investors on four of the most populous emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
上一次发达经济体和新兴经济体之间出现如此决定性的增长差距是在2013年(见图1)。那是“削减恐慌”的一年,担心美国会放慢货币宽松,新兴市场债券遭到抛售。它标志着新兴市场乐观主义十年的终结,这种乐观情绪最好的体现在了对“金砖四国”的热情。金砖四国这个“新词”由高盛首次提出,曾吸引了众多投资者来投资新兴市场的这四个人口大国——巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及中国。
注:
1. 2013年5月,美联储主席本·伯南克暗示美联储即将削减债券购买后,全球债券市场陷入恐慌,政府债券遭受重创,短短4个月债券收益率暴涨。市场曾用“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum) 形容美联储2013年暗示考虑放缓扩充资产负债表速度的举动。2013年 “削减恐慌”造成的结果是,2013年五月至九月初,10年期美国国债收益率急升140个基点。而世界其他地区随后追随美债收益率涨势,其中德国10年期债券收益率上涨80个基点,日本10年期债券收益率上升20个基点。
Source: http://forex.eastmoney.com/news/1764,20150515506964930.html
2. "Brics" 金砖国家,因其引用了 巴西(Brazil)、 俄罗斯 (Russia)、 印度 (India)、 中国(China)、和 南非(South Africa)的英文首字母。由于该词与英文单词的砖(Brick)类似,因此被称为“金砖国家”,也特指世界新兴市场;
The idea that “backward” economies could grow faster than mature ones was first spelled out by economic historians like Alexander Gerschenkron in the 1950s and Moses Abramovitz in the 1970s. It rests on the assumption that imitation is easier than innovation and returns to investment are high where capital is scarce. The evidence for faster growth was weak between the 1970s and the early 1990s, but has become stronger since, as Dev Patel of Harvard University, Justin Sandefur of the Centre for Global Development and Arvind Subramanian of Ashoka University have pointed out most forcefully.
“落后”经济体或比成熟经济体增长更快这一假说最初由一些经济历史学家提出,如亚历山大·格申克龙(Alexander Gerschenkron)以及摩西·阿布拉莫维茨(Moses Abramovitz)分别在上世纪50年代和70年代提出过。该想法基于如下假设:在资本稀缺的地方,模仿比创新更容易且投资回报更高。在70年代至90年代初期,表明落后经济体增长较快的依据不足,但自从哈佛大学的戴夫·帕特尔(Dev Patel)、全球发展中心的贾斯汀·桑德富(Justin Sandefur)和阿育王大学的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)坚定地为这一观点站台,该假说变得更具说服力。
注:阿育王大学(英语:Ashoka University)是一家私立博雅教育大学,位于印度哈里亚纳邦索尼帕特。
戴夫·帕特尔(Dev Patel)哈佛大学经济学系博士候选人。
阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian):印度经济学家,印度政府前首席经济顾问(2014-2018任期),哈佛大学肯尼迪学院客座教授。
In making their projections for the brics, Goldman drew on a cautious version of the thesis, called “conditional” convergence. Simply put, this says that poor countries will grow faster than rich ones, other things equal. Those other things, for Goldman, included a country’s level of education, its openness to trade, its internet penetration and ten other characteristics. Academics have ranged even more widely. According to Steven Durlauf of the University of Chicago, Paul Johnson of Vassar College and Jonathan Temple, a freelance economist, researchers have identified 145 plausible factors that must be accounted for. The list includes everything from inflation and foreign direct investment to religion, frosty weather and newspaper readership.
在对金砖四国进行预测时,高盛采用了该理论的谨慎版本,即“条件”趋同。简而言之,即在其他同等条件下,贫穷的国家会比富裕的国家增长更快。高盛认为,以上所说的同等条件包括了一个国家的教育水平、贸易开放水平、互联网渗透度以及其他十项指标。专业学者研究纳入的指标更多。根据芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的史蒂文·杜尔拉夫(Steven Durlauf)、瓦萨学院(Vassar College)的保罗·约翰逊(Paul Johnson)和自由经济学家乔纳森·坦普尔(Jonathan Temple)的说法,研究人员确定了145个必须考虑的合理因素。这里面包括了通货膨胀、海外直接投资、宗教、寒冷天气、读报人群等因素。
Goldman assumed that emerging economies would catch up with a productivity frontier exemplified by America. But many economies seem to converge not towards a global leader but with their neighbours or peers. Indeed, some of the best examples of convergence come from within countries or economic blocs. Poor Japanese prefectures have tended to catch up with richer ones, as have Canadian provinces, Indian states and the regions of Europe.
高盛认为这些新兴经济体会追赶上以美国为代表的生产力前沿。但许多经济体似乎并没有向全球领袖靠拢,而是向邻国或同类经济体趋同。的确,最好的经济趋同案例都是来自国家群或者经济集团。在日本,贫穷的县倾向于追赶上富裕的县,这和加拿大各省、印度各省、欧洲各个地区无不相同。
If the forces of convergence operate within these blocs, it is reasonable to wonder if other such groupings exist. Are there any other convergence “clubs”, rich or poor, the members of which are bunching up?
如果趋同确实存在于经济集团内,那么就有理由提出是否存在其他类似集群。是否还有其他国家聚集而成的“趋同俱乐部”,不论贫富?
注:bunch up: 聚成一团,挤在一起
eg: People were bunched up at all the exits.
人们都被聚集在各个出口处。
In a new book, “Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”, the World Bank uses an algorithm to sort through many combinations of countries, looking for groups that seem to be converging with each other. Based on the productivity performance of 97 economies since 2000, the bank identifies five clubs. The three gloomiest groups comprise fairly poor countries. A fourth contains some big ones of unfulfilled potential, such as Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa.
在新书《全球生产力:趋势,驱动因素和政策》中,世界银行运用了一种算法对所有国家进行各种组合归类,以找出那些似乎正在相互融合趋同的群体。根据2000年以来97个经济体的生产力表现,世界银行确定了5个国家群组。前景最黯淡的三个国家群组由相当贫困的国家组成。第四个群组包含了 一些蕴含未展潜力的大国,如阿根廷、巴西、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和南非。
注:
gloomy:If a situation is gloomy, it does not give you much hope of success or happiness. 前景暗淡的
The most successful club spans all today’s advanced economies as well as 16 emerging markets, such as China, India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (see chart 2). Poorer members tend to grow faster than the rich ones, at a pace that would halve the productivity gap between them every 48 years.
最成功的国家群组涵盖了当今所有发达经济体以及16个新兴市场国家,例如中国、印度、马来西亚、泰国和越南(见图2)。相对贫困的国家增长速度往往快于那些富裕国家,该增速下,两经济体之间生产力差距每48年缩小一半。
注:
span:If something spans a range of things, all those things are included in it. 包括
What explains the centripetal forces at work? It is not proximity: the countries range from Myanmar and Canada to Finland and Chile. Many members have impressive levels of investment and trade, but so do others in the clubs below them. Higher levels of education and government effectiveness make a bigger difference, at least at the start of their catch-up phases.
国家群组内成员为什么存在向心力?成员国相互之间距离其实并不近:如缅甸和加拿大,芬兰和智利。许多成员国家拥有极高的投资和贸易水平,但排位稍逊的其他成员国家也不差。至少在追赶阶段开始时,较高的教育水平和政府效能发挥了更大的影响。
注:
1. centripetal:acting, moving, or tending to move towards a centre 向心的
2. proximity:a place or person is nearness to that place or person. 接近 [正式]
Most members of the top club also do well on a measure of economic “complexity” developed by Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard and César Hidalgo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Countries score highly if their exports are both eclectic and exclusive, spanning a diverse range of products that few other countries also export. But there are exceptions. Chile is in the top club, but appears economically uncomplicated. That may be because its exports (copper, salmon, fruit) look simple but are produced, differentiated and packaged in sophisticated ways. Its round, red cherries, for example, are carefully selected for export to China as symbols of luxury.
基于哈佛大学的里卡多·豪斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)和麻省理工学院的塞萨尔·伊达尔戈(César Hidalgo)提出的经济“复杂性”指数,多数顶级国家群成员也都表现得出类拔萃。如果国家的出口管制既广泛又排外,涵盖了其他国家基本不出口的多样产品,那么这些国家的复杂性得分就会很高。当然也有例外,智利是顶级国家群的成员之一,但其经济复杂性指数得分却并不突出。这可能是因为其出口产品(铜、鲑鱼、水果)虽看似普通,但生产、分化和包装方式却较为复杂。例如,智利的圆形红樱桃便是经过一番精挑细选,作为奢侈品出口到中国(车厘子自由)。
The authors of the World Bank’s book worry that the covid-19 pandemic will inhibit investment, shorten supply chains and breed insularity, all of which could hamper convergence. But they also note some potential silver linings. Crises, for instance, can encourage structural reforms; the lack of upkeep of outdated capital during dark times can hasten its replacement with newer technologies in the recovery.
而令世界银行这本书的作者们忧心忡忡的是,新冠疫情将会抑制投资,缩短供应链,滋生孤立主义,这些因素都有可能阻碍经济趋同。但是他们也注意到了一线希望,例如,危机时期可促进结构性改革——在危机时刻对过时资本的维护不足,在复苏过程中能通过新技术促进过时资本的加速更迭。
注:
1. inhibit: (v)阻碍、抑制;使拘束,使尴尬。The managing director's presence inhibited them from arising their problems
2. insularity: (n)孤立;偏狭保守。Crynicism and insularity had long been major barriers to my lasting peace
Pioneers of convergence theory understood that a country cannot fully exploit industrial advances if it clings to customary patterns of production and consumption: what Thorstein Veblen, a sociologist, called “the received scheme of use and wont”. For this reason Abramovitz believed that war and political convulsion can serve as a “ground-clearing experience opening the way for new men, new organisations and new modes of operation”. Optimists, who pray that convergence will outlast this convulsive year, must hope that the received scheme of use and wont is one of the pandemic’s many casualties.
趋同理论的先驱者们认为,一个国家如果始终保持着一贯的生产和消费模式,那么便不能充分利用工业进步——社会学家托尔斯坦·凡勃伦(Thorstein Veblen)将其称为“公认使用和习惯方案”。基于该理论,阿布拉莫维茨认为战争和政治动荡可以“扫清障碍,为新人、新组织以及新的运营模式别开蹊径”。乐观主义者希望经济趋同能在动荡的今年继续延续下去,但必须同时祈祷这个众所周知的“公认使用习惯和方案”能随疫情被一同摒弃。
注:
clings: (v)紧紧的抱住,抱紧;抓住(职位,财产)不放;(衣服)粘着,紧附。
convulsion: (n)痉挛;骚乱,动荡
翻译组:
Martina,女,爱电影爱生活,爱金融经济
Jerry,男,金融专业研究生,经济学人铁粉
Vivifang,女,外币债券交易员,经济学人粉丝
Ashley,女 ,金融硕士,爱宠物 爱英语,爱旅游,经济学人粉丝
校对组:
Chloe,女,翻译硕士,经济学人忠实读者
Emily,女,食物链底端金融民工,经济学人粉丝
3
观点|评论|思考
本次感想
Zihan, 对冲基金,大数据工程师
早在疫情来临之前,新兴市场的发展速度就已经下降了。经济学家们预测,新兴市场的平均GDP增长率会从过去20年的5%下降到未来20年的3.5%。虽然这样的增长率还是高于发达国家的。但是整体的收入增长率会出现下降。我国在未来几年已经开始筹备了2%的GDP增长。这样的情景下,投资新兴市场到底有多大胜率?另一方面,哪些国家又会成为未来20年的新秀?而哪些又会逐渐衰败?又有什么比诸国的兴衰更令人激动的事情呢?
“Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”一书中,世界银行根据诸多指标把世界各国分成了五个类别。而在这里最优秀的类别中除了众多发达多国家,还有很多我们熟悉的快速发展的新兴国:中国,印度,越南,马来西亚,泰国。为什么这些新兴国在过去20年的发展速度猛追发达国呢?本文的总结是:教育和政府的执行效率。
我们来看下图。下图的标题为:Higher Income Countries had higer covid death rates。的确,作为最早进入疫情紧急状态的中国,我们在疫情中的死亡率要远远低于其他发达国家。众多高收入国的高死亡率意味着发达国家所受到的疫情打击会远高于低收入国。但这并不意味着发展中和低收入国家没有收到打击。
以土耳其为例,土耳其的旅游业占据其GDP的12%。而菲律宾各国和泰国的GDP也都在20%以上。疫情对旅游业的打击是极为严重的,那么这些依靠旅游业的各国也必将面临极大的压力。本文提出了一个值得我们注意的一点:虽然,疫情一定影响对资产的流通和产业供应链,进而让发展中国家处于苦难的局面。但是这样的情景下,各国也不得不去解决这些困境。这对各个产业面的架构重组提供了极好的机会。
我记得就在几周前,经济学人也有发表一篇航空公司将面临一个极好的改革的机会。大量的航空公司因为疫情都宣布了破产。那么剩下的大多数也都在破产的边缘。这些航空企业如果想要熬过疫情,必然会对其商业模式和服务框架进行重组和优化。这种大规模的优化在正常时期应该是很难甚至无法实施的。这就像是,在备考期间整理笔记是很难的,因为每天都很忙碌。但是假期来了,却有足够的时间去整理笔记,而很多好点子也都是在这段闲暇中想出来的一样。虽然疫情固然给世界带来了巨大的不幸。但我们尝试去看看他光明的地方的话,我们也会发现每次大动荡的后面都会带来新的机遇和可能。而谁能成为未来的赢家呢?
也许,在这次疫情中退步最少的,就是进步最大的。
4
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