原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491715&idx=1&sn=c284c14b6545f740e59eb4f2763613de&chksm=fba3b324ccd43a3296e26d4558db8149bd98ff1fb9cb1c403a22a9269e38437d1a28eff1097e#rd
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Learning to Live With It
与火共存
英文部分选自经济学人20200911期科技版块
Learning to Live With It
与火共存
Wildfires will be more common in a warming world
世界变暖致野火频发
Clever design of buildings and infrastructure can limit the damage
巧妙设计房屋和建筑,减少损失
CALIFORNIA BURNS every year. But amid a record-breaking heatwave, 2020 is the fieriest year yet (see map). As The Economist went to press, more than 7,600 fires had burned over 2.5m acres (1m hectares) of land. The season still has months to run.
加利福尼亚每年都发生火灾。但在前所未有的热浪席卷下,今年是野火烧得最旺的一年(如图)。《经济学人》付印时,加州已发生7600多次火灾,烧毁超过250万英亩(100万公顷)土地。野火将持续数月。
That fits a long-term trend, for California’s wildfires are getting steadily worse. Blazes in the 2010s burned 6.8m acres on average, up from 3.3m acres in the 1990s. The fire season lasts nearly three months longer now than it did in the 1970s. Over the past decade, the state has spent an average of $3.7bn a year fighting fires. Add the cost of rebuilding, treating casualties and restoration, says Headwaters Economics, a think-tank, and that is perhaps a tenth of the total cost. Although smaller than this year’s, the 2018 fire season was particularly destructive. It killed 100 people and burned tens of thousands of buildings.
这反映了一种长期趋势,加州的野火越烧越旺。过去10年,平均每年野火烧毁680万英亩土地,而在20世纪90年代,这个数字只有330万英亩。如今的火灾季比20世纪70年代长3个月左右。过去10年,加州政府平均每年耗资37亿美元用于灭火。而据智库Headwaters Economics估计,算上重建、修复和安置伤亡人员的费用,37亿可能只占总支出的十分之一。2018年的野火规模比今年小,但同样造成了毁灭性的后果。100人葬身火海,成千上万栋房屋被烧毁。
The reason is a double whammy of climate change and development. More homes are being built next to forests, in what experts call the “wildland-urban interface” (WUI). A 2018 study estimated that roughly a third of American homes were in the WUI. The problem is acute in California. Pricey housing has pushed people onto cheaper land close to the wilderness.
气候变化和社会发展是导致加州火情加剧的两大元凶。越来越多的房屋建于森林旁,专家称之为森林-城镇交界域(WUI)。2018年的一项研究估计,美国约有三分之一的房屋建于森林-城镇交界域内。这个比例在加州更高,高昂的房价迫使人们搬到房价便宜、靠近荒郊的地区。
Whammy : an event with a powerful and unpleasant effect.
注:Wildland-urban interface (WUI): 森林-城镇交界域,简称交界域,是指无人居住的荒地与人类开发的土地之间的过渡区。距离该地域0.5英里以内的社区也可能包括在内。这些被荒野包围的土地和社区存在山火的风险。
At the same time, climate change is extending the dry season, which stores up fuel for fires. In California, a chronic “megadrought”—in which dry years become more common and wet ones scarcer—is making matters even worse. One paper, citing tree-ring data, concluded that the drought, which started around 2000, is the second-worst in the past 1,200 years. It, too, has been linked to climate change.
与此同时,气候变化导致旱季延长,干旱也助长了山火。在加州,长期“特大干旱”(在特大干旱周期中,旱年更常见,润年更稀少)让情况变得更糟。有论文引用树木年轮数据并得出结论,这场始于2000年的干旱是过去1200年来的第二大旱灾,其成因与气候变化有关。
Since neither trend shows much sign of reversing, people on America’s west coast will have to learn to co-exist with more, and more frequent, fires. “It’s not that different to building on an earthquake-prone landscape,” says Max Moritz, a wildfire expert at the University of California at Santa Barbara. Buildings and communities can be built in such a way that fires sweep through them—or better still, around them—leaving them more-or-less intact. Infrastructure can be made more resilient. And forests themselves can be managed to reduce the risk of catastrophic blazes.
由于气候变化和加州山火都没有好转的迹象,美国西海岸的居民只能试着与日益频发的火灾共处。加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校的野火专家马克斯·莫里茨(Max Moritz)表示,“这就如同在地震多发地带上建造房屋。”建筑物和社区应该在大火掠过,或者火势蔓延至周围后,仍能大致完好无损。基础设施也应做好防火建设,同时要加强对森林的管理,降低发生灾难性大火的风险。
Start with the buildings. Most buildings burn not when the flaming front of a fire reaches them, but when embers (also called “firebrands”) thrown off by distant fires land on them. A 2010 paper tracked how a 1991 fire in Oakland Hills burned steadily in a cluster of houses before embers were lifted by strong winds, landing on other houses hundreds of metres away and igniting more than a dozen new “spot fires”. Estimates of the share of buildings lost to firebrands vary, but all are large—between 60% and 90%.
先从建筑物说起。大多数建筑并非在大火靠近时着火,而是在远处大火余烬飘落时。2010年的一篇论文追踪了1991年奥克兰山大火,那场大火持续肆虐,一步步吞噬公寓楼,强风刮走余烬,落在几百米外的房屋上,又点燃了十几处新的房屋。被大火烧毁的建筑物比重不尽相同,但都占大部分,在60%到90%之间。
Clever design can help make buildings resistant to fires that spread in this way. Materials such as concrete, adobe or stucco are a better bet than cladding walls in flammable wood. Some composite panels promise to hold back the flames for two hours or more. Gaps under roofs can be blocked up, to stop embers drifting in. Vents can be covered with mesh, or eliminated entirely. Heat-resistant windows, which are less likely to break, help keep firebrands out. Experts recommend a five-foot “non-combustible zone” around the base of homes.
巧妙的设计能让建筑物避免因余烬而导致的起火。用混凝土、黏土或灰泥等材料砌的墙比木墙防火效果更佳。某些合成板有望将火焰阻挡两小时甚至更长。还能通过堵住屋顶下的缝隙,防止余烬飘进屋内。通风孔可用网覆盖,或者干脆堵住。耐高温窗户不易碎,还能够阻挡余烬。专家建议在家中地基周围设置五英尺高的“不可燃区”。
Neighbourhoods can be toughened up, too. In a report published in April, Dr Moritz and his colleague Van Bustic at the University of California in Berkeley describe how entire communities can be planned to resist fires. Building near water is one tactic. But moats are not the only defence. Open agricultural lands—including the vineyards common in the Napa Valley—can offer a useful buffer, too. Even golf courses can serve as firebreaks. Rather than lining the greens with homes, Dr Moritz suggests doing the opposite, and putting houses in the middle.
社区的防火措施也能进一步改善。莫里茨博士(Dr. Moritz)和他加州大学伯克利分校的同事范·布斯迪克在今年4月发表了一则报告,讲述了从社区整体层面抵御火灾的方法。建筑靠近水源是策略之一,但并不是唯一的方法。开放式农业用地(包括纳帕谷随处可见的葡萄园)也能有效抵御火灾。高尔夫球场能用作隔离防火带。莫里茨博士建议,不应该把房屋与绿地并排,而应将房屋置于其中。
Burying electricity lines can help avoid blackouts, as well as subsequent costly rebuilding. It can also prevent power lines themselves sparking fires. That is a persistent problem in California, and one which has cost Pacific Gas & Electric, a utility, billions in settlements. Australia, which also suffers from wildfires, has experimented with bunkers specially designed to withstand flames for an hour or more—long enough for a flaming front to move through. These offer a last-resort option for trapped residents.
将电线埋在地底下能避免火灾导致的断电,减少灾后重建费用,还能避免输电线本身起火。在加州这是个长期问题,太平洋煤气电力公司(一家公共事业单位)因此耗资数十亿。同样受山火所困的澳大利亚特地建立了地堡,能抵御火势蔓延一小时以上,这期间足以让火焰穿过这片区域。地堡为被困的居民提供了最后的庇护地。
Sparking a change
做出改变
But while options exist, adoption is slow. Firewise USA, a volunteer fire-resistance project, was launched in 2002. Nearly two decades later, only around 1,500 communities in America have signed up. One obstacle is the constant maintenance that must be carried out. Vegetation must be regularly thinned. Someone must take responsibility for empty sites. It can be hard to cajole second-home owners, who may visit only rarely, into doing their bit.
尽管有改善措施,但措施的实施速度缓慢。公益防火项目Firewise USA于2002年设立,快20年过去了,美国只有约1500个社区加入了该项目。其中一个阻碍项是设施需要长期维护,植被需要按期修剪,空置地也要有人管理。而且劝说拥有两套房的居民贡献力量并不容易,他们在第二所房子里住的不多。
Homeowners and contractors often assume that fire-resistant buildings are more expensive, although Headwaters Economics reckons that, for newly built houses, the costs can be comparable. And fire-safe homes often come with secondary advantages, such as greater energy efficiency, which make them cheaper over time. But existing buildings need retrofitting, which comes with a heftier price tag. There are few carrots, and few sticks. The insurance industry offers little relief to those who fire-proof their homes. California’s legal requirements for building in the WUI do not apply to existing buildings. Fire-hazard maps are inadequate.
房屋主人和建筑承包商通常认为,防火型房屋造价更昂贵。但据Headwaters Economics估计,对于新建房屋,防火型和普通型的价格相差无几。此外,防火型房屋还有其他好处,如能耗更低,使得它们的长期使用价格更底。但将现有房屋改建成防火型,成本则很高。而且也没有相应的奖惩措施。保险公司提供给防火改建户主的补偿也很少。加州的防火法律并不适用于WUI区域内已有的建筑。另外,火灾隐患分布图也不全面。
Perhaps the biggest problem is cultural. “We see the impacts of fires, then turn around and rebuild largely in the same way and the same place, but expect things to go differently next time,” says David Shew, a former staff chief at the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “That’s the definition of insanity.” Mr Shew has seen resistance to change at all levels, from homeowners who have strong opinions about materials and aesthetics, to a hidebound construction industry, and even among firefighters themselves.
也许最大的问题是文化层面。“我们见识了火灾的威力,但转头又像从前一样在老地方重建家园,抱着侥幸心理期待下一次灾难不要降临到自己头上”,加州林业和消防局前官员David Shew表示,“这真的很荒唐。”一直以来Shew目睹了不同群体对改变现状的抗拒,对房屋材料和审美固执己见的房主、守旧的建筑行业从业者,还有消防员。
Still, the measures work. New homes that have adhered to fire codes are far more likely to survive. And some communities are taking it upon themselves to be fire-smart. Circle Oaks is a small community of 180 houses dotted across a steep slope surrounded by tall oaks and madrones. In 2001, recognising their vulnerability, residents began investing around $50,000 to $90,000 each year into a fire-mitigation strategy. Vegetation is regularly cut back, manually or by goats. Extra water is stored on site, ready for firefighting, and hydrants have been upgraded. The residents conduct frequent fire-safety assessments.
尽管如此,防火措施确实有用。按照防火规范新建的房屋在火灾中幸免于难的概率更大。有些社区开始主动提升应对火灾的能力。Circle Oaks社区有180户居民,他们遍布在一个陡坡上,四周被高大的橡树和太平洋乔鹃木包围。2001年,在意识到该社区是火灾高危区后,社区居民开始每年投资50到90万美元用于防火。他们定期以人工或牧羊的方式减少植被面积,现场存储额外的水用于灭火,升级消防栓级,并经常进行防火安全评估。
At half past midnight on October 9th 2017, they were told to evacuate. A fire on nearby Atlas Peak was heading in their direction. A handful of firefighters, led by Larry Carr, a Circle Oaks resident, did their best to beat back the flames. Circle Oaks’ fire-safety measures greatly aided the efforts—and its houses were saved from one of the worst wildfires to have swept through the region in living memory.
2017年10月9日午夜12点半,当地居民接到疏散通知,阿特拉斯峰附近的大火正朝他们袭来。Circle Oaks社区居民Larry Carr带领几个消防员拼尽全力帮助扑灭大火。Circle Oaks的防火措施对此次救援行动贡献很大——历经人们记忆中该地区的最严重山火之一后,社区房屋仍然安然无恙。
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无忌,心怀梦想不断努力的理想主义男孩
Echo,北漂北外的江南人,央视boys and girls 的粉丝儿
Iris, 少女心爆棚的前职场老阿姨,现国际女子修道院MTIer,外刊爱好者
Anne,女,爱读书爱Borges的小翻译,热爱文艺,经济学人爱好者
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Rachel,学理工科,爱跳芭蕾,热爱文艺的非典型翻Anne,女,爱读书爱Borges的小翻译,热爱文艺,经济学人爱好者
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本周感想
Nikolai,爱想象的小双鱼,蒙特雷候补生,AKB49
每年到了夏季,加州山火的新闻必定会登上新闻联播。每年春季,美国全国都在宣传叫打流感疫苗,不管你是哪个年龄段,疫苗有效期过了都要去重新打,你的私人医生会不停地给你打电话,直到确认你已经打了疫苗才肯罢休。然而,依据2018年数据,2017年的流感季在美国本土48州共造成3万余名儿童死亡,且年年如此。
你也许会问,灾害如此频繁,为什么防护的收效甚微?在我看来,灾害防护的关键在于全民参与。所谓的千里之堤、溃于蚁穴,哪怕只有一点点漏洞,都会让灾害的魔爪有机可乘。日本位于地球地壳活动最活跃的地区之一,每年大小地震不下百余次。然而,自1981年颁布《建筑基准法》,要求高层建筑能抵抗里氏7.0级以上地震以来,就很少听到日本遭受严重地震灾害的新闻。事实上,据日本建筑家协会消息,现在日本高层建筑设计时的抗震系数通常在里氏8.0-9.0级左右,否则不允许开工建设。正是因为全民接受了国家有关抗震建筑的要求,才帮助日本极大地减少了困扰其数千年的地震灾害带来的影响。
在文中我们可以看到,加州人民对对抗山火一事人心不齐,各自有各自的考量。而那些团结一致采取措施防范山火的地区,受灾程度相对减轻了许多。面对天灾,单个人类的力量是弱小的。只有许许多多单个的人类形成合力,我们才能够减少面对灾害的损失。正如那首歌里唱的,“团结就是力量”。无论在任何领域、任何事情,人类只有团结,才能生存。
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