经济学人商业 || TAMP会取代BAT吗?

原文:http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247491043&idx=1&sn=655cab2d74486509415a5ec45eee8275&chksm=fba04e44ccd7c752c6f88bd0d7b467ead4bcf307f5c74054084e1918839b4161019cc5d8fdf3#rd

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感谢思维导图作者

Sophie,女,HR让我做自己,券商带我看世界


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听力|精读|翻译|词组

E-shopping frenzy

网购狂潮

英文部分选自经济学人20200711期Business版块

Online business

在线业务


E-shopping frenzy

网购狂潮


Investors are besotted with digital China. Two booming internet firms show why

投资人痴迷于中国的数字经济。两家蓬勃发展的互联网公司(美团和拼多多)给出了原因。


CHINA’S BUSTLING digital economy has spawned thousands of startups. Yet in the eyes of many it remains “BAT or bust ”, to cite a saying among jobseekers from the country’s elite universities. The BAT in question refers to the original trio of Chinese internet stars: Baidu, a search engine; Alibaba, an online emporium; and Tencent, a mobile-payments and video-game titan. The acronym is overdue an update.


中国数字经济蓬勃发展,催生出成千上万初创公司。但在许多人眼中,现状仍是“非BAT不看,这也是中国顶尖大学毕业的求职者常说的一句话。所谓BAT即中国互联网初期的三巨头:搜索引擎百度、电商平台阿里巴巴、移动支付及视频游戏巨头腾讯。现在,这个缩写早该换个说法了。


注:
Or bust
used to say that you will do everything possible to get somewhere


Alibaba and Tencent continue to lord it over digital China. With market capitalisations of nearly $700bn apiece, they are the world’s seventh- and eighth-biggest listed companies, respectively. Having struggled to adapt as consumers moved from desktops to smartphones, Baidu languishes in 319th place; its erstwhile equals can gain or lose the equivalent of its entire market value of $45bn in a day or two.


阿里和腾讯继续称霸中国的数字经济。两家公司市值均接近7000亿美元,位列全球第七、第八大上市公司。而百度难以适应消费者从桌面端转向移动端的趋势,排名已落后到319位,市值450亿美元。昔日的两大竞争对手一两天内的涨跌幅度就相当于其全部身家。


The BAT label also belies another development. Newer arrivals have been busily remodelling the upper reaches of China’s cyberscape. They include firms like JD.com, a $100bn e-merchant listed in New York, Didi Chuxing, a privately held ride-hailing giant valued at $60bn or so, and the $100bn-plus ByteDance, the world’s biggest unlisted startup (which owns, among other things, TikTok, a short-video app popular with Western teenagers).


BAT的标签也掩盖了另一趋势:后来居上的企业一直忙于重塑中国互联网发展上游。这些公司包括已于纽约上市、市值达到一千亿美元的电商公司京东,未上市但估值约600亿美元的网约车平台滴滴出行,还有全球最大的非上市初创公司字节跳动(旗下业务广阔,例如深受西方青少年喜爱的短视频应用TikTok),估值超出1000亿美元。


None has set investors’ pulses racing of late more than Meituan Dianping and Pinduoduo. The duo have much in common. Both began by matching shoppers with discounts (on spa and cinema tickets in Meituan’s case and products from apples to Apple iPads in Pinduoduo’s). Both went public in 2018—Meituan in Hong Kong and Pinduoduo in New York. And both have seen their share prices soar since the start of the year (see chart). They are now worth more than $100bn each. But their routes to these highs look quite different.


可论起近来最让投资者心跳加速的,当数美团点评和拼多多。两者共同点颇多。它们都从为消费者提供折扣产品(美团多是spa以及电影票等产品,拼多多则是提供从吃的苹果到用的苹果iPad各类产品)。两者都在2018年上市——美团在香港上市,拼多多在纽约上市。自今年年初以来,两家公司的股价都在飙升。现在市值均超过1000亿美元。两家公司一路蒸蒸日上,发展道路却大相径庭。

Start with the bigger of the two, Meituan. It was founded in 2010 by Wang Xing, an engineering graduate from Beijing’s Tsinghua University, selling those discount vouchers. Like Tencent and Alibaba, it has expanded into other areas. In 2013 it launched a meal-delivery business and a travel arm that lets users book hotels and flights. Two years later it merged with Dianping, a restaurant-review and booking platform similar to Yelp. In 2018 it paid $2.7bn for Mobike, a bike-sharing service, and entered ride-hailing, which it expanded last year to dozens of Chinese cities. Today Meituan can be thought of as “a search engine for services”, says Elinor Leung of clsa, a broker.


先从规模更大的美团谈起。2010年,毕业于清华大学电子工程系的王兴创办了美团,专门售卖打折优惠券。与腾讯和阿里一样,美团也已经向其他各个领域进军。2013年公司推出外卖送餐业务以及酒店机票预订业务。两年后美团将其与大众点评合并,后者是一家餐厅点评和预订平台2018年,美团斥资27亿美元收购了共享单车企业摩拜单车,并进入了网约车领域。去年,该公司已将该业务扩展到了数十家城市。里昂证券分析师梁向奕(Elinor Leung)认为如今的美团是“服务搜索引擎”。


Some of these, like food delivery or bike-sharing, are low-margin, high-volume businesses. In 2019 the firm earned a profit of less than three cents per delivery (chiefly from commissions it charges restaurants). But it makes an awful lot of them. The platform has 700,000-800,000 drivers at its disposal. Two in every three yuan that the Chinese spend on having grub dropped off at their doorstep goes through Meituan.


有些业务利润低但业务量却很大,譬如外卖送餐和共享单车。2019年,美团外卖每单的利润不到3美分(主要向餐馆收取),但业总量却大得惊人。该平台现在拥有七、八十万名骑手,其市场份额(营收)已经占到整个行业的三分之二。


Like Mobike (which is capital-intensive and still unprofitable), the food business lures users who can then be directed to more lucrative offerings such as travel. Meituan’s operating margins on hotel reservations hover between 20% and 35%. The pandemic briefly halted domestic bookings but by late May they had recovered to 70% of pre-coronavirus levels.


和(资本密集型且一直未获盈利的)摩拜单车一样,餐饮业务也会吸引大量客户,再进一步将其吸引到旅游等利润更高的服务上。美团的酒店预订方面的营业利润率一直维持在20%-35%之间。虽然新冠疫情一度使得国内预订业务陷入停滞,但截止五月下旬已恢复到疫情前70%的水平。


Pinduoduo has taken the opposite tack to Meituan. Rather than spread its bets, it has doubled down on e-commerce. Online retail is growing fast enough in China to justify not being “a jack of all trades”, says David Liu, in charge of strategy at the firm.


拼多多采取的策略与美团截然相反。与美团大肆扩张版图不同,拼多多埋头深耕电商领域。拼多多战略副总裁九鼎(David Liu表示,目前,中国在线零售发展迅速,拼多多发展不缺良机,故而无需多管齐下,博而不精。



He has a point. Chinese e-commerce sales could expand by 16% this year, to 14.4trn yuan ($2trn), according to eMarketer, a research firm, even as total retail sales may dip by 4% to 35trn yuan as a consequence of lockdowns’ toll on bricks-and-mortar shops. Alibaba will capture perhaps half of this growth. Pinduoduo will slug it out with jd.com for the rest. Shoppers hit by the coronavirus slowdown may lean towards Pinduoduo’s bargains.


他的观点不无道理。 据研究公司eMarketer估计,尽管疫情封锁可能使实体店总零售额下降4%,350亿元,但今年中国电商销售额仍有可能增长16%,达到14.4万亿元(两万亿美元)。其中阿里巴巴可能会占到一半。拼多多将和京东瓜分其余份额。新冠袭来,经济放缓,消费者可能倾向购买拼多多的便宜商品。


Central to the firm’s ascent is the concept of social shopping, which it describes as a fusion of Costco and Disneyland. Products are cheaper if you buy in bulk with fellow bargain-hunters. Users can join existing groups or invite pals using WeChat, a social-messaging app owned by Tencent (which holds a 16% stake in Pinduoduo). Merchants sacrifice margins in exchange for higher volumes.


拼多多崛起靠的是社交购物的概念,公司自称该理念是美国零售商好市多(Costoco)和迪士尼方式的融合。消费者想得优惠需要拼单买,商品就会更便宜。用户可以加入拼单或通过腾讯(持有拼多多16%票)旗下的微信邀请朋友拼单。商家牺牲一部分利润以换取更大的交易量。



Colin Huang, Pinduoduo’s founder, who once worked as an engineer at Google in America, did not invent group shopping; Groupon has been doing a version of it since 2008. But he did develop the idea, for instance introducing games which reward players with credits on future purchases.


多多创始人黄峥曾在美国谷歌工作,团购并非他首创。美国电商网站高朋(Groupon)早在2008年就开始实行这一理念,但黄峥将该理念发扬光大。比如,拼多多引入了游戏,玩家可赢得用于日后购物积分。


注:

玩坏了的拼多多:一文看懂拼多多是怎样把游戏化运营做到极致的
http://www.aldzs.com/viewpointarticle?id=10863


Chinese shoppers love it. At the end of March 628m of them had made at least one purchase on the app in the preceding 12 months, 42% more than the year before and 60% more than shopped on jd.com; only Alibaba has more active users (726m). Their average annual spending also rose, from 1,250 yuan to over 1,800 yuan. So has Pinduoduo’s share of Chinese e-commerce—from 2% in 2017 to 10% last year. Bernstein, a research firm, expects it to be 18% by 2024, in line with jd.com.


中国的消费者很吃这一套。截止3月底,有6.28亿人在过去的12个月里在拼多多上至少消费过一次,较上年同比增长42%,消费人数比京东高60%。只有阿里巴巴的活跃用户量高于拼多多,达到7.26亿。拼多多用户的人均年度消费额也从1250元上升1800元。拼多多在中国电商中的份额也从2017年的2%增至去年的10%。研究公司伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)预计,到2024年拼多多的市场占比将达到18%,与京东齐平。


The shopping frenzy has boosted Pinduoduo’s revenues by 44% year on year in the first quarter, to 6.5bn yuan. The money comes from transaction fees and adverts bought by merchants to have their offers promoted in the app. Similarly to eBay but not many e-commerce giants, Pinduoduo does not hold inventory or operate its own logistics network, relying on merchants to ferry products to buyers. Instead, it burns a spectacular, and growing, amount of cash on sales and marketing: 112% of revenues in the first quarter.


这场网购狂潮促使拼多多第一季度营收同比增长44%,达到65亿元。这些收入来自交易费以及商家的广告费(在软件上推广他们的商品)。拼多多就像美国的易趣网(eBay),但跟大多数电商巨头有所不同,它不涉及仓储,不自办物流网络,只靠专门的物流公司把商品运送给消费者。拼多多在销售和市场方面的投入越来越惊人,达到第一季度营业收入的112%


Mr Liu insists these costs can easily be dialled back. Experience of other marketplaces suggests otherwise. Uber, which also matches sellers (drivers) with buyers (riders), has been perpetually loss-making. Like Uber, Pinduoduo enjoys some  “network effects” –the more buyers use its app, the more sellers it draws, who in turn attract new buyers, and so on. But, again as in ride-hailing, buyers and sellers face few costs in switching to another app that offers a better deal. Jd.com and Alibaba have already launched Pinduoduo clones to their vast user base.


拼多多战略副总裁九鼎坚信,这些费用可以轻松收回。但其他市场经验表明情况恰恰相反。优步(Uber同样对接商家(司机)和顾客(乘客),却一直在亏损。与优步一样,拼多多也受益于“网络效应”,即顾客越多,商家也会越多,反过来又会吸引新顾客,以此类推。但是,这就会像网约车平台一样,顾客和商家可以容易地更换到另一家更优惠的平台,而不必损失多少成本。京东和阿里巴巴已经为庞大用户群体提供了类似拼多多模式的服务。


The market is giving Pinduoduo the benefit of the doubt. The pandemic appears to have done it no harm; cooped-up Chinese consumers have turned to the firm for necessities and, sometimes, a dose of retail therapy. With negligible business outside China, it is, like Meituan, shielded from the Sino-American tech war making life difficult for TikTok, with its mostly non-Chinese users, or Huawei, China’s telecoms champion. White House threats to expel Chinese firms from American exchanges have not dampened investors’ enthusiasm. Nor has the sudden departure of Mr Huang, who stepped down as its chief executive on July 1st and cut his stake in the company from 43% to 29% (he remains chairman and holds 81% of voting rights).


现在的市场姑且还相信拼多多。新冠并未对其造成影响。憋闷已久的中国消费者已转向于购买生活必需品,偶尔也来次购物疗法。拼多多和美团一样,海外业务寥寥无几,因此躲过了中美技术战。但严重依赖海外用户的TikTok以及中国电信巨头华为就步履维艰了。美国政府威胁要让中国企业退出美国交易所,但这并未削减投资者的热情。71日,黄峥突然卸任总裁,股权从43%减至29%(他留任董事长,持有81%投票权),此事也未对投资者造成任何影响。


注:

1. the benefit of the doubt(无罪推定): the state of accepting something/someone as honest or deserving of trust even though there are doubts

2.拼多多创始人黄峥宣布:卸任总裁并捐百亿,他也想学马云退休吗?
 https://www.sohu.com/a/405683898_490881


Meituan’s path to riches is clearer. It ended last year in the black for the first time. Its profitable food and travel arms have been gaining market share from rivals (such as Ele.me, Alibaba’s food-delivery app, and Ctrip, China’s biggest travel agency). That gives its loss-making divisions financial breathing room.


美团的崛起之路现在越发明朗。去年,美团首次实现盈利。外卖送餐和旅游业务一直在抢占对手(阿里巴巴旗下的饿了么和中国最大的旅行软件携程网)市场份额,为美团亏损的业务赢得了财务上的喘息之机。


Ultimately, both firms embody the excitement over digital China’s bright prospects. But TAMP will only become the new BAT if both firms can match Tencent’s and Alibaba’s consistently fat profits. 


总而言之,美团和拼多多都代表了时下市场对中国数字经济光明未来的兴奋之情。但只有当两家公司都能像腾讯和阿里巴巴一样,持续保持丰厚盈利,TAMP才会取代BAT,形成四足鼎立的新局面。


翻译组:

Yao, 男, 不想做翻译的翻译学硕士

Megan, 女,外企民工,好想一身都是月

VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者

Angela, 女, Northwestern 本科在读,double major 数学哲学


校对组:

Clark,一笔,汽车公关行业

Humi,女,CATerCatti二笔
Monica,女,MTIer,死不悔改的理想主义者


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观点|评论|思考


本次感想

Zoey,女,咨询行业,爱挠头的英文码字工

今年的拼多多已经超越京东成为中国第二大最有价值的电商(仅次于阿里巴巴)。作为社交电商的典范,拼多多通过团购模式(购买某一产品的人越多,价格就越低),依托微信平台、低成本地拓展用户(用户通过微信访问拼多多并付款),抢先占领下沉市场 – 55%的利润来自于不太富裕但服务不足的三线以下地区。我本人不怎么用拼多多,但我知道拼多多对于父母那辈对价格敏感的用户,吸引力还是很大的(即便我爸在拼多多买到假狗粮害得我家狗子拉稀,也没有削减我爸妈对拼多多的热情)。


相对于另两大电商巨头阿里巴巴和京东,拼多多的收入来源其实更窄。其80%的收入都来源于从平台上的广告 – 类似于Facebook向特定用户定向投放广告。虽然阿里巴巴和京东的大部分收入也的确来自电子商务,但作为早期巨头,它们还有其他新兴业务(比如云计算)。


当然,其他巨头也意识到了下沉市场的机遇,所以新的竞争又来了。阿里巴巴近期推出了淘宝特价版APP,专注于C2M模式(customer-to-manufacturer,用户可以直接与制造商互动)420日,京东旗下的京喜宣布采取C2M模式面向下沉市场。现在这两家巨头都在积极与工厂建立关系。这方面,阿里巴巴可能更具优势,因为其本身就有面向商家的平台阿里巴巴(我本人除了用淘宝也会用阿里巴巴,冬天直接找新疆的厂家给一家人买羊绒毛衣比淘宝同样的货能便宜两三百,屡试不爽),阿里巴巴的云计算业务也可能会在数字能力方面为工厂提供更多利益。另外,京东和阿里巴巴都拥有强大的物流能力(菜鸟裹裹和京东物流),拼多多可能相对缺乏这样的后勤能力。来自巨头的挑战应该也会对拼多多和其他电商平台造成压力。


虽然今年上半年(尤其第一季度)疫情对非必需品零售和进出口贸易打击巨大,但电商(包括跨境电商)的表现都十分亮眼。新的岗位直播出现了(虽然很可能这一行业会跟娱乐圈一样,光鲜的人只有小部分),快手、抖音这些社交平台也开始进军电商(快手今年计划投30亿在成都落户直播电商基地,并开始与京东合作;抖音也在布局自己的电商小店)。受全球疫情影响及其他社会因素,原来立足香港的奢侈品品牌(实体店大批关闭)为了更好地服务(赚)内地(的钱),也开始降低姿态进军电商和考虑移步受政策青睐的海南。跨境电商(包括国家现在拓展跨境电商试验区和零售进口实验城市,提升中欧班列及国家国际货运能力)应该也能在一带一路计划和中美贸易冲突的背景下一定程度影响国际贸易布局。叽里呱啦说了好多,不知道互联网的赛道后续如何,但对普通消费者、国家拉动内需总归是好事。


4


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